Professional Documents
Culture Documents
as a No-Regret Move
Driving Operational Excellence
at Automotive Captives – Issue 1
1
Content
01 Preface Page 3
04
03 Summary and outlook Page 27
05
03 Contacts Page 29
01
Preface
01
02
03
04
05
3
01 | Preface
4
01 | Preface
5
01 | Preface
02
03
04
Flexibilisation of core (Urban) mobility (Multi-brand) fleet Captive payment Operational excellence Data monetization 05
business solutions management services Both existing and new Service-based businesses
In future, Captives will Cities will play an even Decreasing private The service-based business core businesses will be in particular will generate
need to modify their more important role in ownership of vehicles models, especially in under great pressure large quantities of vehicle,
existing core business to 2030 than today. based on leasing contracts connection with towards operational mobility, and customer
become more flexible. Urbanization rates as well as bans of personal autonomous fleets, will excellence due to the data. Captives need to find
Direct sales and throughout the globe will driving in inner cities will significantly increase the competitive environment. ways to generate and use
on-demand services will further increase, putting fuel the demand for large required number of The ability to build and this data while staying
gradually replace the more pressure on city fleets. The funding and payment transactions. Own run highly scalable compliant with
current fixed-term credit authorities to develop management of this fleets payment infrastructures (international) operating ever-increasing regulation.
and leasing products. efficient urban mobility becomes one of the key can become a key platforms will become a
ecosystems. capabilities in the future to competitive advantage for key challenge in the
provide mobility services. Captives and OEMs to future.
secure the value creation in
and around their vehicle
platforms.
6
02
less favorable 02
03
04
05
7
02 | Market conditions for traditional business become less favorable
Captives as a success story Fig. 2 – Average profits before taxes and CIR9 of Top Captives10
01
Captives have a long and successful track record.
Profits in bn € CIR in %
Over the last few decades, they have seen their
revenues and profits steadily increase and a solid 3.0 90% 02
business model evolve. Captives contribute up to
2.5 75%
55%5 of profits6 in overall group results and hold
up to 69%7 of the group’s assets. OEMs are facing
03
2.0 60%
challenges on several fronts, from stagnating car
sales in established markets to emission scandals 1.5 45%
04
and fleet electrification. Despite those challenges,
1.0 30%
the Captives of Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler, Toyota
and Ford, for example, have seen their average 0.5 15%
05
pre-tax profits rise with a CAGR8 of 8% from 2010
0 0%
to 2019.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Profits before taxes Write-off „toll collect“ by Daimler Cost-Income Ratio (CIR, in %)
20,375
8
02 | Market conditions for traditional business become less favorable
Neglecting the cost side operations are extremely labour-intense, with Fig. 3 – Average cost structure
01
One striking observation on the cost side is the labour representing the largest cost component of Captives across regions15
relatively stable cost-income ratio (CIR) for all the (see figure 3). Many processes are still manual
% of total costs
above-mentioned Captives in recent years. The and the automation potiential, whether it is self- 28% 100% 02
100%
CIR did in fact increase from 2011 to 2019, since service portals and online banking platforms
total cost CAGR at 10% slightly outperformed for customers and dealerships or process
profit growth during that same period.11 In its automation, is lagging behind other industries. 80% 03
4%
23%
original role as sales support for OEMs, Captives The second largest cost component are IT costs.
had a more sales-driven mindset and focused Instead of leveraging standard systems, most 60%
04
less on costs and processes. The fact that CIR is Captives are still operating complex and highly 45%
now flat after a sharp initial increase combined customized legacy systems. These systems not 40%
with growing profits and revenues demonstrates only account for the high maintenance costs but 05
that Captives have not yet managed to fully also offer only limited flexibility for updates and 20%
9
02 | Market conditions for traditional business become less favorable
Declining sales forecasts in mature markets Fig. 4 – Market size/share (sales volume, pre-COVID-19) forecast of individual/
01
Even though Captives have not been as strongly private vehicles in EU 5 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom)16
affected by current market trends as most of
Market Size
their parent OEMs in recent years, the outlook in bn € 02
isn’t necessarily positive for the vehicle leasing 180
and loan business in various markets. No one can 164
10
02 | Market conditions for traditional business become less favorable
While growth figures are positive in emerging Fig. 5 – Vehicle sales forecast (pre-COVID-19) for Germany
01
markets, more mature markets show stagnation (in million vehicles)17
or even a decline in vehicle sales. Germany, for
Million
example, is expecting the sales slump to continue vehicles 02
from 2024 to 2030 (-9%) and 2040 (-25%, see 4
figure 5), according to Deloitte’s predictions. -9% -25%
05
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
11
02 | Market conditions for traditional business become less favorable
The NAFTA vehicle markets show a similar trend, Fig. 6 – Vehicle sales forecast (pre-COVID-19) for NAFTA
01
even though the decreases are smaller and have (in million vehicles)18
a lag of about four years (6% from 2028 to 2040,
Million
see figure 6). vehicles 02
22 -6%
20
03
18
16
14 04
12
10
8
05
6
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
12
02 | Market conditions for traditional business become less favorable
Though the potential of the Chinese market Fig. 7 – Vehicle sales forecast (pre-COVID-19) for China
01
is considered massive (less than 15% of the (in million vehicles)19
population currently owns a vehicle), it is not
Million
likely to be leveraged in full over the coming vehicles
+6%
02
years. Future vehicle sales are expected to 45
+7%
grow as both the population and its purchasing +10%
20
05
15
10
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
13
02 | Market conditions for traditional business become less favorable
New competition on the rise Fig. 8 – ALD Automotive’s announced growth Fig. 9 – Lease Plan’s growth forecast
01
In addition to a shrinking market for the strategy (pre-COVID-19)20 (pre-COVID-19)21
automotive leasing and loan business, Captives
Million units Million units
are facing additional competition by new players
CAGR CAGR
02
+6.7%
within this declining segment. Independent +8.4% +6.7%
3.0
leasing and fleet management companies, 3 3 2.9
14
02 | Market conditions for traditional business become less favorable
Provided they succeed, these growth plans would Fig. 10 – European market share forecast for direct sales of automotive vehicles24
01
enable ALD and LeasePlan to double their current
Million units
market share in the EU5 countries.22 Independent CAGR
-0.5%
leasing companies could account for up to 25% of 14 -0.5% 02
12.8 12.8
the overall Captives business volume by 2025, as 12.6 12.6 12.5
12
much as €42bn p.a.23 (see figure 10). In addition 2.5
to independent leasing companies, large private 4.9 4.6 4.2 3.8 3.3 03
10
consumer banks, fin-tech companies such as Business volume
1.4
Cluno and rental-car companies have extended 8 0.3 1.3 at risk
0.3 1.0 1.1 04
0.3
or are planning to extend their portfolio in an
6
attempt to disrupt, at least in part, the Captives’ 5.2 5.4
4.8 5.0
current market segments. 4
4.6
05
2
2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3
0
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
15
03
Operational Excellence as a
no-regret move for the future 01
02
03
04
05
16
03 | Operational Excellence as a no-regret move for the future
17
03 | Operational Excellence as a no-regret move for the future
Ownership
the emergence of globally dominant mobility providers. multi-brand fleet portfolios. They are the powerhouse of
Captives have focused on incrementally optimizing their the group, contributing themajority of revenues. Captives
04
asset-based business model, for example with AI-based run asset- as well as service-based infrastructures
residual value forecasting, and also their infrastructure. efficiently at the same time.
05
Vehicle
Empty shell Mobility platform orchestrator
Captives have moved to a substantially different business Captives are the OEMs’ key customer relationship man-
model as financial regulation tightened and new players ager and are true digital champions. They orchestrate
entered the market, specializing on single parts of the various mobility services. By reducing their balance
traditional value chain. Captives aggregate best-in-class sheets they were able to invest in new service-based
service providers and manage them on behalf of OEMs as Vehicles owned businesses built on a flexible and scalable infrastructure.
well as mobility providers. by 3rd parties
18
03 | Operational Excellence as a no-regret move for the future
Reduce cost and improve efficiency Aside from the challenges and changes in the
01
More and more traditional financing products, traditional core business model, various other
including fixed-term leasing and loan products, trends are shaping the Captive industry as well.
will become commodities in the future. This Some of these offer great opportunities for 02
threatens the incumbent position of Captives, as Captives to extend their portfolio volume and
customers tend to opt for the best price in a more customer base but come with high investment
homogenous market environment. If competition costs. That is why it is so vital to reduce costs
03
increases and Captives can no longer rely on their in the traditional business model and free-
unique selling points, we expect prices to drop up additional capital to invest in new service 04
and cost advantage to become a more significant offerings. In our Deloitte study Future of Captives,
factor. Maintaining revenues will also be a huge we identified four trends as central findings,
challenge for Captives due to the shrinking market because of their special significance for Captives 05
and increasing competition eating up their market moving towards transformation. All of those
share. As long as they are dependent on OEM central findings require additional investments
vehicle sales, the levers on the revenue side that Captives will have to self-fund.
will be limited. Captives would therefore be well
advised to further optimize their cost base if they
want to sustain their historically high profits.
19
03 | Operational Excellence as a no-regret move for the future
02
Cost and Customer
Reduced cost/improved efficiency Efficiency Centricity Improved customer centricity
· Significant cost savings through · Optimized processes allow for
03
more efficient processes and organization OPEX – more focus on customer/dealer needs and
· Improved competitive position value-add
due to lower cost/better prices – seamless and convenient customer/dealer 04
· Freed up funds for investments experience (CX)
in new business models – Fast and efficient processes and response
Flexibility 05
to customer/ dealer inquiries
· Online origination helps provide more direct inter-
actions with customers
· Simplicity in products, processes and interactions
Increased flexibility
(e.g., less variations, fewer information require-
· More flexible organization and utilization of sour-
ments)
cing allow for swift adoption to changes in demand
· High level of digitalization and customer/dealer self
services make the operating model less dependent
on personnel
· BPO and functions as a service help to source skills
externally that are not available in-house
· Faster time-to-market through lean products
and processes 20
03 | Operational Excellence as a no-regret move for the future
Fig. 13 – Highlighted trends with high significance on the Captive’s transformation path26
01
As vehicle sales and demand for financing shift to Some of those new business models will require asset-focused business model and contribute a
01
new markets, bound capital in mature markets additional backup funding as well as cost-efficient large part of overall profits, which makes them
will become less profitable in comparison. OEMs operations to survive the initial post-launch a potential source for additional investment
will instead focus investments on setting up – or phase. Many mobility services, such as car funding throughout the OEM group. And 02
improving – business operations in the emerging sharing, are still not profitable due to low margins significant investment will be required for the
markets. This includes office facilities, talent and fierce competition. With so many new players radical changes the automotive industry is facing
and IT systems, but also dealer development or in the game, we expect consolidation to narrow in the near future. Over the next 5 to 10 years,
03
brand building/marketing activities. In addition, the market to only a handful of players in the the world’s 29 largest automotive manufacturers
Captives will need to invest heavily in setting up near future. Captives tend to have more staying are planning to invest more than $300bn in the 04
or acquiring new business models in an effort power in terms of funding than some of their development of electric vehicles and battery
to cater to the growing need for flexible mobility competitors, usually early-stage startups. But cells (or their purchase) alone.27 To launch
offerings. Car sharing, for example, requires large without sufficient funding, a lean business model autonomous vehicles, OEMs will need to invest 05
investments in physical assets, as customers and a competitive cost structure, Captives will further in digitalization and the development of
expect a sufficient availability of vehicles in their not be able to compete in the long-run. They those vehicles. OEMs may expect Captives to free
respective geographic area. For other service may even be forced to exit the race before the up capital from their balance sheets to fund the
offerings, such as charging and parking services, business turns a profit, which means that all of investment priorities within the group.
a stronger customer-centric focus across all the heavy initial investments would be lost.
services or switching from indirect to direct sales
models, Captives need to invest in advanced IT Potential investments are not limited to changes
systems and retain skilled employees to ensure and opportunities within Captives, but necessary
they remain competitive against new market for the OEM group as a whole. Captives have a
players. huge impact on OEM balance sheets with their
22
03 | Operational Excellence as a no-regret move for the future
Many Captives have already announced cost Fig. 14 – Cost-income-ratio comparison in 201930
01
saving targets and launched dedicated initiatives.
CIR in %
Volkswagen Financial Services, for example,
announced an annual savings target of €850m by 60% 02
2025 and recently increased the target to €1.3bn
(~25%–30% of total estimated costs).28 In order 50% 50%
23
03 | Operational Excellence as a no-regret move for the future
Create more flexibility their IT landscape lacks the flexibility and their business through process automation and
01
In addition to lower costs and improved scalability to deal with the increased remote increase their flexibility in other areas (e.g., third-
efficiency, flexible processes and product access. party integration).
offerings are a key goal of OPEX. The world is 02
changing at break-neck speed and in order to The importance of flexibility for the traditional Many Captives have yet to reach their desired
survive the future, Captives need to quickly auto finance business described here is even state and continue to struggle with replacing
more relevant for new business models, which inflexible legacy systems and automating or
03
react to changing customer needs and market
conditions. We are seeing first-hand just how are more prone to fast-paced change. Services digitizing manual processes. Captives need to
important flexibility is in the current COVID-19 around mobility as well as charging and parking critically assess their level of flexibility within the 04
crisis, which has posed multidimensional solutions are relatively new offerings that organization. Offering new business models in
challenges for Captives. The drop in demand for are still undergoing development and facing particular will give Captives the opportunity to
auto finance and leasing products is threatening frequently changing market dynamics due to rethink processes and organizational structures, 05
revenue and profit streams and Captives must volatile customer demand and innovations from giving them a “blank canvas” on which to create
respond decisively with alternative, more flexible competitors. Captives need a high degree of their desired state. In its DNA, OPEX is designed
product offerings. The temporary shutdown flexibility to respond to sudden changes in the to give Captives the functionalities they need
and potential bankruptcy of part of the Captives’ market and customer demand, which – in turn to achieve the flexibility they require in order to
dealer network further jeopardizes the Captives’ – requires flexible, scalable processes and IT build a lean, scalable operating model and ensure
dominant sales channel, which underscores the systems to cope with the increasing number of competitiveness in the long-run.
need to bolster alternative customer touchpoints customers shifting to new offerings. Standardized
such as direct online sales. Last but not least, the systems aligned with lean processes and a
sudden shift towards remote work has disrupted suitable organizational structure can offer
operations among most of the Captives, where additional benefits for Captives looking to scale
24
03 | Operational Excellence as a no-regret move for the future
Improve customer centricity their operating models to establish digital sales fit for the purpose of utilizing and monetizing
01
Along with cost-savings, efficiency gains and channels and links between new platform-based customer data.
increased flexibility, OPEX also aims to improve business models. This will require efficient
the overall customer experience by placing the back office operations with streamlined and With Captives taking over the customer 02
customer needs at the center of all its initiatives. automated processes as well as a harmonized touchpoint from dealerships and startups setting
Captives will be offering a more diversified, IT landscape across all offerings to facilitate a new standards, Captives need to react quickly
seamless customer experience. and become more customer centric.
03
intertwined product portfolio around asset
financing and multiple mobility service offerings
in the future. As Captives embrace digitalization In addition to the measures described here, OPEX helps Captives transform 04
and work towards expanding vehicle sales and Captives need to collect better customer
their operating model and stay
financing through direct channels, the role of insights in real-time. This requires technological
managing the direct customer touchpoint will competence in the area of data management and competitive in a new market 05
become even more relevant. Customers will analytics. Competitors for new business models environment with changing
interact with Captives mainly online, demanding are often established tech companies such as
customer demands and
faster purchasing processes as well a single Google or Apple as well as tech start-ups in the
log-in for all services. The current offering of automotive and mobility environment such as additional business models.
Captives often seems fragmented with several Uber, Lyft or Gett. Those companies typically
contracts and customer IDs needed to access know how to operate and leverage technology,
the full product range. In order to assume control offering business models that rely heavily on the
of customer touchpoint from dealerships, it utilization of customer data. Captives are under
will not be sufficient to simply digitalize existing pressure to catch up rapidly by replacing existing
processes. Captives need to fully transform legacy IT systems with state-of-the-art systems
25
03 | Operational Excellence as a no-regret move for the future
OPEX programs as a holistic approach for Captives rather than handing over the lead to
01
Excelling in efficient business operations will be the OEM group and introducing one-size-fits-all
the foundation of any future Captive business measures and activities. Our structured approach
model and a crucial element of any successful and extensive experience with OPEX programs 02
transformation. In order to succeed, Captives offer proven solutions to Captives that are striving
will need to implement OPEX on the basis of to realize their full potential. In our next PoV, we
will provide a glimpse into this approach and
03
company-wide initiatives. A holistic approach to
rolling out the OPEX program across the entire showcase best practice examples in setting up a
organization has a much higher likelihood for successful OPEX program. 04
success than single source initiatives in various
departments. Many Captives are aware that
they need to act in this changing market and 05
have already started OPEX programs. While
Volkswagen Financial Services is continuously
promoting its own OPEX program, several
other OEMs such as Daimler, BMW, Ford and
Toyota have included their Captive OPEX
activities in their group-wide cost-savings
initiatives.31,32,33,34,35,36 The requirements of the
business and operating model of Captives,
however, are specific to their mission and we
recommend developing a tailored OPEX program
26
04
02
03
04
05
27
04 | Summary and outlook
Captives have had a history of success with This PoV is the introduction to a larger series of playbook and OPEX story. The subsequent PoVs
01
their traditional business model, but the era publications that introduces approaches and in the series offer a deep dive into the four main
of above-average growth and record sales is best practices Captives will need to become areas (“Elimination”, “Improvement”, “Outsourcing”
expected to vanish over the coming years. In efficiency leaders. The series provides a deeper and “Automation”) that may be included in an 02
order to sustain past profit margins, Captives understanding of OPEX as an enabler for a OPEX program, also using examples from other
will be under pressure to reduce costs in their sustainable cost basis, a cost-conscious mindset industries to showcase best practices. The series
traditional business and look for additional profit and efficient processes within an organization. We will close with a PoV addressing the question
03
pools in new areas. OPEX is an integral step along will be sharing our expertise of proven first-hand “Vision of the future: How to reach the next
the path to transformation in multiple ways. By insights, from building the strategy and scoping level?”. 04
revealing hidden cost potential and improving to the initiation of the program, combining our
efficiency as well as competitiveness against practical experience with comprehensive OPEX We invite you to join us on this
05
other Captives and new competitors, OPEX will programs and our methodological expertise to journey to learn more about
help Captives defend their market share in the create a valuable knowledge base for OPEX.
traditional business, improve overall profitability
OPEX levers and best practices
and collect the funds needed to develop new The upcoming issue of the PoV series entitled “A and gain insight into achieving
business models. Increased financial power and Playbook for Operational Excellence” will provide the right setup for your
cost-efficient operations are just the beginning, insight and guidance on the OPEX project itself.
OPEX can also make an organization flexible The PoV will explain the best practice approach
organization.
enough to adapt quickly to changes in the market to setting up and executing an OPEX program For further information on our PoV series, please visit
www.deloitte.com/de/automotive-captives-opex
and to shift its focus towards customer centricity. as well as supporting elements like the OPEX
28
05 | Contacts
01
02
29
06 | Endnotes
01. Springer Automotive Media, “VW Financial Services: Mit Rückenwind in ein 14. Reuters, “VW-Finanzsparte legt nach Rekordgewinn Sparprogramm auf“, 30. Data Source: Annual reports 2019 of Volkswagen Financial Services (VWFS),
schwieriges Jahr“, Autohaus, December 15, 2019, https://www.autohaus.de/
nachrichten/vw-financial-services-mit-rueckenwind-in-ein-schwieriges-
Unternehmensnachrichten, March 18, 2019, https://de.reuters.com/article/
deutschland-volkswagen-finanzdienstleist-idDEKCN1QZ1DF
Toyota Financial Services (Toyota FS), Ford Credit, Daimler Mobility (DMO),
BMW Financial Services (BMW FS) 01
jahr-2490802.html.
15. Deloitte Analysis 31. Reuters, “VW-Finanzsparte legt nach Rekordgewinn Sparprogramm auf“,
02. Deloitte, Future of Captives, February 2018, https://www2.deloitte.com/de/de/ March 18, 2019, https://de.reuters.com/article/deutschland-volkswagen-
16. Deloitte automotive finance market model; Note: OEM & RaC registrations are
pages/consumer-industrial-products/articles/future-of-captives.html. finanzdienstleist-idDEKCN1QZ1DF.
10. Data Source: Annual Reports 2010-2019 Volkswagen Financial Services, BMW 23. Note: €42bn are based on total asset volume (based on # of vehicles sold and
Financial Services, Daimler Financial Services (Now: Daimler Mobility) and their avg. value), not interest-bearing asset volume only, compared to 2017
Ford Credit
24. Deloitte Analysis
11. Data Source: Annual Reports 2010-2019 Volkswagen Financial Services, BMW
25. Deloitte, Future of Captives, pp. 20-21.
Financial Services, Daimler Financial Services (Now: Daimler Mobility), Ford
Credit, Toyota Financial Services 26. Deloitte, Future of Captives, p. 56.
12. Data Source: Annual Reports 2014-2016 Volkswagen Bank, Toyota Kreditbank, 27. Reuters, “Charged“, Reuters Graphics, April 4, 2019, https://graphics.reuters.
Opel Bank com/AUTOS-INVESTMENT-ELECTRIC/010081ZB3HD/index.html
13. Statista, “Internationale Indikatoren - Wirtschaft und Finanzen“, https:// 28. https://de.reuters.com/article/deutschland-volkswagen-finanzdienstleist-
www-genesis.destatis.de/genesis/online?operation=abruftabelleBearbei- idDEKCN1QZ1DF; Finanzen.net, “VW-Finanzsparte bei Einsparungen etwas
ten&levelindex=1&levelid=1586012756794&auswahloperation=abruftabel- optimistischer - Rekordgewinn in Aussicht“, December 5, 2019, https://www.
leAuspraegungAuswaehlen&auswahlverzeichnis=ordnungsstruktur&aus- finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/effizienzprogramm-vw-finanzsparte-bei-ein-
wahlziel=werteabruf&code=61111-0001&auswahltext=&werteabruf=Wert- sparungen-etwas-optimistischer-rekordgewinn-in-aussicht-8293404.
eabruf%22 accessed March 30, 2020; Statista, “China: Inflationsrate von 1981
bis 2018 und Prognosen bis 2021“, https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/ 29. Data Source: Annual Reports 2018-2019 Volkswagen Financial Services, BMW
studie/167115/umfrage/inflationsrate-in-china/, accessed March 30, 2020. Financial Services, Daimler Financial Services (Now: Daimler Mobility), Ford
Credit, Toyota Financial Services and ALD Automotive 30
This communication contains general information only not suitable for addressing the particular circumstances of any individual case
and is not intended to be used as a basis for commercial decisions or decisions of any other kind. None of Deloitte Consulting GmbH or
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, its member firms, or their related entities (collectively, the “Deloitte network”) is, by means of this
communication, rendering professional advice or services. No entity in the Deloitte network shall be responsible for any loss whatsoever
sustained by any person who relies on this communication.
Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee (“DTTL”), its network of
member firms, and their related entities. DTTL and each of its member firms are legally separate and independent entities. DTTL (also
referred to as “Deloitte Global”) does not provide services to clients. Please see www.deloitte.com/de/UeberUns for a more detailed
description of DTTL and its member firms.
Deloitte provides audit, risk advisory, tax, financial advisory and consulting services to public and private clients spanning multiple
industries; legal advisory services in Germany are provided by Deloitte Legal. With a globally connected network of member firms in more
than 150 countries, Deloitte brings world-class capabilities and high-quality service to clients, delivering the insights they need to address
their most complex business challenges. Deloitte’s approximately 312,000 professionals are committed to making an impact that matters.
Issue 08/2020
31