Course Administration

IE2141 Systems Thinking and Dynamics (AY21/22 Sem 2)

Department of Industrial Systems Engineering and Management (ISEM)

College of Design and Engineering
National University of Singapore

IE2141 Systems Thinking and Dynamics – Dr. Li Haobin, National University of Singapore 1
 Course Schedule
Week From To Lecture Tutorial / Lab Assignment
1 10-Jan 14-Jan L1 - Introduction to Systems Thinking - -
2 17-Jan 21-Jan L2 - Project Management - -
3 24-Jan 28-Jan L3 - Modelling and Simulation Tutorial 1 (L1 - 2) Assignment 1 due 1 week later
4 31-Jan 4-Feb L4 - Behavior-Over-Time Graphs Lab 1 (L3) Lab 1 due 1 week later
5 7-Feb 11-Feb L5 - Causal Loop Diagrams Tutorial 2 (L3 - 5) Assignment 2 due 1 week later
6 14-Feb 18-Feb L6 - Stock-Flow Diagrams Lab 2 (L5 - 6) Lab 2 due 1 week later
Recess 19-Feb 27-Feb - -
7 28-Feb 4-Mar Quiz 1 (L1 - 6) + Project Discussion Project Discussion Project Interim Report Due on 4-Mar
8 7-Mar 11-Mar L7 - Modelling Delays Lab 3 (L7) Lab 3 due 1 week later
9 14-Mar 18-Mar L8 - System Archetypes Lab 4 (L8) Lab 4 due 1 week later
10 21-Mar 25-Mar L9 - Data Collection and Estimation Tutorial 3 (L7 - 8) Assignment 3 due 1 week later
11 28-Mar 1-Apr L10 - Testing and Validation Lab 5 (L10) Lab 5 due 1 week later
12 4-Apr 8-Apr L11 - Modelling Decision Making Tutorial 4 (L9 - 11) -
13 11-Apr 15-Apr Quiz 2 (L7 - 11) + Project Discussion Project Discussion -
Project Video Presentation and Final Report
Reading 18-Apr 22-Apr - -
Due on 22-Apr

IE2141 Systems Thinking and Dynamics – Dr. Li Haobin, National University of Singapore 2
 Module Learning Outcomes
▪ Apply systems thinking and dynamics concept and tools
▪ Define, analyze and recommend solutions to real-world systems
problems
▪ Draw causal loop diagrams (CLD) to present dynamic problems
▪ Draw stock-flow diagram (SFD) and build system dynamic (SD)
simulation models using computer software
▪ Perform analysis of system problems based on the SD models
▪ Collaborate within a project team to solve system problems

IE2141 Systems Thinking and Dynamics – Dr. Li Haobin, National University of Singapore 3
 Module Content

IE2141 Systems Thinking and Dynamics – Dr. Li Haobin, National University of Singapore 4
 Lesson 1 – Introduction to Systems Thinking

▪ Why to Learn Systems Thinking?

▪ Laws of Systems Thinking
▪ How to Define a System?
▪ Classification of System Characteristics
▪ Coupling of Systems and Hierarchical Structure
▪ Methodologies of Systems Thinking
▪ Level of Perspectives
▪ Stakeholders

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 Lesson 2 – Project Management
▪ Manage Project as a System
▪ Project Life Cycle
▪ Project Success and Failures
▪ Project Planning
▪ Scope Management
▪ Schedule Management
▪ Cost Management
▪ Project Execution and Control
▪ Agile Framework

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 Lesson 3 – Modelling and Simulation
▪ Models and Their Purposes
▪ Static vs. Dynamic Simulation
▪ State Variables and Dynamic Transitions
▪ Continuous vs. Discretized Transitions
▪ Types of Simulation by Scale
▪ Types of Simulation by Purpose
▪ System Dynamics Simulation
▪ Agent-Based Simulation
▪ Discrete-Event Simulation

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 Lesson 4 – Behaviour Over Time Graphs
▪ Why BOTG?
▪ Steady State Behavior
▪ Constant Behavior
▪ Exponential Behavior
▪ Goal Seeking Behavior
▪ Oscillation Behavior
▪ S-shaped Growth
▪ S-shaped Growth with Overshoot
▪ Overshoot and Collapse
▪ Causal Structure Behind
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 Lesson 5 – Causal Loop Diagrams
▪ Why CLD?
▪ CLD Notations
▪ CLD Principles
▪ Correlation vs. Causation
▪ Naming Variables
▪ Unambiguous Polarity
▪ Proper Level of Aggregation
▪ Feedback Loops with Delays
▪ Reinforcing Loops
▪ Balancing Loops
▪ Roles of delays
▪ Behaviors of Causal Loops

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 Lesson 6 – Stock-Flow Diagrams
▪ Why SFD?
▪ SFD Notations
▪ Mathematical Representation
▪ System Dynamic Simulation with STELLA
▪ Generic Structures for Behaviors
▪ Steady State Behavior
▪ Constant Behavior
▪ Exponential Behavior
▪ Goal Seeking Behavior
▪ Oscillation Behavior
▪ S-shaped Growth
▪ S-shaped Growth with Overshoot
▪ Overshoot and Collapse

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 Lesson 7 – Modelling Delays
▪ Overview on Time Delays
▪ Material vs. Information Delays
▪ Order of Delays
▪ Modelling Delay with SFD
▪ Other Delay Types
▪ Physical Delays
▪ Transactional Delays
▪ Pipeline Delays
▪ Aging Chains
▪ Informational Delays
▪ Perceptual Delays

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 Lesson 8 – System Archetypes
▪ Overview on System Archetypes
▪ Limits to Growth
▪ Shifting the Burden
▪ Eroding Goals
▪ Escalation
▪ Success to the Successful
▪ Tragedy of the Commons
▪ Fixes that fail
▪ Growth and Under-investment
▪ Accidental Adversaries
▪ Attractiveness Principle

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 Lesson 9 – Data Collection and Estimation
▪ Purpose of Data
▪ Input parameters
▪ Identification of Behavior Over Time
▪ Model Formulation
▪ Validation
▪ Data Sources
▪ Actual observations, Surveys, Expert Opinions, Library,
▪ Databases, Public Domain Statistics, Literature Review
▪ Data Estimation Methods
▪ Graphical, Divide and Conquer, Invariants, Geometry
▪ Analogies, Scale up, Limits on Answers, Extrapolation from sample
▪ Reasonability Checks
▪ Assumption, Tautological and Circular Reasoning
▪ Correlation is not causation, Falsifiability

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 Lesson 10 – Model Verification and Validation
▪ Overview of Model Testing
▪ Purpose
▪ Process
▪ Model Structure Verification
▪ Structure verification
▪ Extreme conditions
▪ Dimensional consistency
▪ Boundary adequacy
▪ Integration tests
▪ Model Behavior Validation
▪ Parameter validation
▪ Sensitivity Analysis / statistical validation
▪ Behavior replication and forecasting
▪ Calibration

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 Lesson 11 – Modelling Decision Making
▪ Decision Making Structure
▪ Modeling Decision Making
▪ Goal Seeking
▪ Resource Driven Structure
▪ Principles of Decision Making
▪ The Baker's criterion, Conformance to managerial practice,
▪ Desired vs. actual conditions, Robustness in extreme conditions,
▪ Common Pitfalls
▪ Identifying Leverage Points
▪ Decision Analysis Methodologies
▪ SWOT Analysis, Cost Benefit Analysis,
▪ Multi-criteria decision making, Decision Tree
▪ Optimization of Decision Parameters

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 Tutorials
▪ Practice through designed examples on the following topics taught in lectures.
In-class discussion and presentation by groups is encouraged.
▪ Tutorial 1 – Laws of systems thinking, identification and classification of a system,
understanding level of perspectives and stakeholders.
▪ Tutorial 2 – Identification of variables in a system, understanding the behavior over time of
key performance measures, formation of corresponding cause structures, drawing the
causal loop diagrams and recognition of main feedback loops.
▪ Tutorial 3 – Identification and classification of the main delays in a system, and
understanding of the system behavior, structure, and mental models via applying system
archetypes
▪ Tutorial 4 – Usage, collection and estimation of data, understanding issues in model
verification and validation, system decision making and solution recommendation

IE2141 Systems Thinking and Dynamics – Dr. Li Haobin, National University of Singapore 16
 Assignments
▪ A step-by-step team effort to respond what have been taught in the lectures
and practiced in the tutorials, on a self-proposed real-time cases.
▪ Submitted works will be assessed by Tutors and TAs, and successful work
can be consolidated towards the project submission.
▪ Assignment 1 – apply practices in Tutorial 1 to select the topic, identify the system, scope
the problem, and plan for the project work.
▪ Assignment 2 – continue / revise the topic from Assignment 1, apply practices in Tutorial
2, to complete BOTG and CLD
▪ Assignment 3 – continue / revise the topic from Assignment 2, apply practices in Tutorial
3, to complete SFD, identify the main delays, and system archetypes if there are any

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 Labs
▪ Train students with necessary knowledge and skills in conducting system dynamics
experiment with STELL Architect software, following the concept taught in lectures.
Same skillset shall be applied in completing their project work.
▪ Lab 1 – familiarizing with STELLA software, running a system dynamics model, creating tables,
graphs, and the interface with a ready-built SD model example
▪ Lab 2 – drawing of causal-loop diagrams and stock-flow diagrams, building of SD simulation
models with various behaviors
▪ Lab 3 – practicing on modelling system delays with different types and orders
▪ Lab 4 – practicing on SD models with various system archetypes, observe their behaviors with
different parameter values
▪ Lab 5 – practicing on usage of data, model verification and validation, and decision making with
SD models.

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 Project Scope
1. Select a real-life system which is dynamic, causal, and non-invertible, with a system problem
due to either of its time-variant, non-linear, or unstable characteristics.
2. Justify the significance of the system problem, and identify which laws of system thinking
shall apply to address it
3. Define the system by elements, connections, boundary, subsystems, stakeholders with
different levels of perspectives
4. Draw BOTG for key state variables and hypothesize on the system dynamics
5. Draw CLD and SFD to formulate the structure of the system
6. identify important delays, apply system archetypes if applicable, implement the SD simulation
model in STELLA Architect
7. Collect necessary data for the model, verify and validate the model
8. Analyze on the system decision making and provide solutions for the system problem

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 Project Administration
▪ How to form a project team?
▪ Form a team of 4 – 5 members among tutorial group, email the names to your TA by 21-Jan
▪ On 22-Jan, TA will randomly allocate project teams for the rest of students in the tutorial group who have not
formed a project team
▪ TA will reserve the right to randomly add members to a group or split a group of 5 in the case where the remaining
students is less than 4, so please coordinate among yourselves and help your peers to form groups with proper
number.
▪ Interim Report (Due on 4-Mar 23:59)
▪ with less than 4 pages (font-size 12), conclude work done for Scope 1 – 5
▪ CLD and SFD with proper aggregation shall be included in the main context (suggested # of variables 15 ~ 25)
▪ Include WBS and Gantt Chart for your project work in the appendix
▪ Final Report
▪ with less then 10 pages (font-size 12), conclude all work done (Scope 1 – 8)
▪ Presentation
▪ with less than 20 minutes, present all work done (Scope 1 – 8).
▪ the presentation shall be submitted as a video record, you are required to keep your personal camera on during the
presentation
IE2141 Systems Thinking and Dynamics – Dr. Li Haobin, National University of Singapore 20
 Assessment
▪ In-Lecture Exercise: 5% (individual)
▪ Quiz 1 (MCQs): 20% (individual) – lecture time, keep your camera on for invigilation
▪ Quiz 2 (MCQs): 20% (individual) – lecture time, keep your camera on for invigilation
▪ Assignments: 5% x 3 = 15% (team)
▪ Lab Reports: 5% x 5 = 25% (team)
▪ Project
▪ Interim Report: 5% (team)
▪ Final Report: 5% (team)
▪ Presentation: 5% (individual)
▪ Remarks
▪ Individual peer appraisal forms can be submitted together with assignments, lab reports and
project reports, ONLY in the case when some team members fail to contribute to the teamwork
▪ Peer appraisal from will be kept confidential, and assessed by Tutors and TAs for grade
moderation

IE2141 Systems Thinking and Dynamics – Dr. Li Haobin, National University of Singapore 21
 Timetable
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Each student shall select 1
9 - 10 AM
lecture group + 1 tutorial /
T08 lab group
10 - 11 AM
L2 T02
11 - 12 PM
T09
12 - 1 PM
T03 T05 Tutorials and labs are
1 - 2 PM conducted in alternative
T04
2 - 3 PM weeks according to the
T06 T10
3 - 4 PM Course Schedule, but at the
4 - 5 PM
L1 T01 T07 T11
same timeslot in a week
5 - 6PM

L1, L2 : Lecture Groups

T01, …, T11 : Tutorial / Lab Groups

IE2141 Systems Thinking and Dynamics – Dr. Li Haobin, National University of Singapore 22
 Teaching Staff and Assistants
Lecturers / Tutors Groups Teaching Assistants

▪ Snr. Lecturer Dr. LI Haobin JIANG Xianghua (xianghuaj@u.nus.edu)

L1, L2 & T04 LIM Changyu (e0415755@u.nus.edu)
li_haobin@nus.edu.sg

▪ A/Prof. CHIA Eng Seng, Aaron ZHAO Yabang (zhaoyabang@u.nus.edu)

T08 & T09 CHEN Hongdan (e0322919@u.nus.edu)
iseches@nus.edu.sg

▪ A/Prof. LEE Kian Kong GU Ruixue (e0251049@u.nus.edu)

T06 & T10 CHAN Tze Kin (chantzekin@u.nus.edu)
kiankong-lee@nus.edu.sg

▪ A/Prof. CHEN Chao Yu, Peter WU Tong (tongwu@u.nus.edu)

T01 & T02 Elle LEE Xin Yu (elle@u.nus.edu)
mpechenp@nus.edu.sg

▪ Asst. Prof. Dr. SONG Ziyou MA Yining (yiningma@u.nus.edu)

T03 & T05 ONG Jing Quan (ongjingquan@u.nus.edu)
ziyou@nus.edu.sg

▪ Lecturer Dr. ZHANG Hongying WU Tong (tongwu@u.nus.edu)

hy.zhang@nus.edu.sg
T07 & T11 TAN De Jun (tandejun@u.nus.edu)

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THANK YOU

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