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BUY

Result Update Infosys Ltd Target Price


18th April 2022 IT Services 2,060

Demand Scenario Intact Despite Slowing Growth Momentum


(CMP as of April 13, 2022)
Infosys Ltd (Infy) reported Q4FY22 revenue of Rs 32,276 Cr, up 1.3% QoQ and 0.8% QoQ (in CMP (Rs) 1,749
CC terms) which was below our expectations. The company’s operating profit stood at Rs 6,956 Upside /(Downside (%)) 18%
Cr, reporting a de-growth of 7.3% on a QoQ basis. In line with the lowered operating profits, the High/Low (Rs) 1,954/1,312

company’s operating margins, too, de-grew by 200bps QoQ to 21.5%, largely led by the Market cap (Cr) Rs 7,35,611

unfavourable impact of higher attrition rate and lower utilization and subcontracting costs. Its net Avg. daily vol. (6m) Shrs. 40,57,460
No. of shares (Cr) 1.6
profit for Q4FY22 stood at Rs 5,686 Cr, registering a de-growth of 2.1% QoQ. The management
has provided revenue growth guidance of 13%-15% in CC terms for FY23 in light of the Shareholding (%)
company’s strong deal pipeline and intact robust demand. Furthermore, it has guided the margin Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21
guidance of 21%-23% for FY23. The management commentary on the verticals such as BFSI, Promoter 12.95 13.12 13.12
Hi-tech Media, Life Sciences, and Communications stood positive. Digital Business continued to FIIs 33.39 33.46 33.17
deliver a robust performance and stood at $2,532 Mn (56% of the top line), registering an MFs / UTI 12.75 12.24 12.79
impressive growth of 38.8% YoY (in cc terms). The company’s deal wins for the quarter Banks / FIs 0.04 0.04 0.02

continued strong at $2.3 Bn and $9.5 Bn for FY22. However, attrition remained a key concern Others 40.87 41.14 40.9

with Attrition standing at 27.7% in Q4FY22 but the management has indicated that it will flatten
Financial & Valuations
in the forthcoming quarters. Y/E Mar (Rs. Cr) 2022E 2023E 2024E

We recommend a BUY rating on the stock and assign a 29x P/E multiple to its FY24E Net Sales 1,21,641 1,39,219 1,60,687
EBITDA 36,365 38,285 44,992
earnings of Rs 71/share to arrive at a TP of Rs 2,060/share, implying an upside of 18%
Net Profit 22,146 26,540 30,397
from the CMP. EPS (Rs) 52.4 60.8 71.1
PER (x) 33.4 28.4 24.5
Robust performance across verticals
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.5 10.1 9.8
On the vertical front, the BFSI/Retail/Communication verticals delivered a YoY growth of P/BV (x) 10.5 10.1 9.8
14.1%/16.5%/29.2% respectively. Life Sciences, too, grew a robust 16.2% YoY while RoE (%) 30% 36% 40%

Manufacturing and Hi-tech verticals reported growth of 45.3% and 20.5% YoY respectively. The ESG disclosure Score**
majority of the verticals witnessed a strong recovery and are likely to report further growth Environmental Disclosure 44
backed by a strong deal pipeline in the near term. Social Disclosure Score 65
Governance Disclosure Score 54
On a geographical front, North America (61% of revenue) reported a growth of 18.2% YoY,
Total ESG Disclosure Score 51
Europe (25% of revenue) grew by 22% YoY, and India's business grew by 25.9% YoY in CC
Source: Bloomberg, Scale: 0.1-100
**Note: This score measures the amount of ESG data a company reports publicly
terms. For Q4FY22, the company posted a robust free cash flow of Rs 5,769 Cr. and does not measure the company's performance on any data point. All scores
are based on 2020 disclosures

Outlook & Valuation


Relative performance
We believe Infy is well-placed for encouraging growth from a long-term perspective given its
325
multiple long-term contracts with the world’s leading brands. Though the company’s margins are 275
likely to be under pressure in the short term primarily due to rising subcontracting costs, richer 225

revenue visibility gives us confidence in its business growth going forward. We recommend a 175
125
BUY rating on the stock and assign a 29x P/E multiple to its FY24E earnings of Rs
75
73.5/share to arrive at a TP of Rs 2,140/share, implying an upside of 14% from the CMP. 25
Jan-20 Apr-20 Aug-20 Dec-20 Apr-21 Aug-21 Dec-21 Apr-22

Infosys BSE Sensex

Key Financials (Consolidated) Source: Capitaline, Axis Securities


(Rs Cr) FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E
Net Sales 1,00,472 1,21,641 1,39,219 1,60,687
EBIDTA 27,889 36,365 38,285 44,992
Omkar Tanksale
Net Profit 19,417 22,146 26,540 30,397 Research Analyst
EPS (Rs) 45.5 52.4 60.8 71.1
Call: (022) 4267 1759, 9819327371
PER (x) 37.3 33.4 28.4 24.5 email: Omkar.tanksale@axissecurities.in

EV/EBIDTA (x) 9.5 10.5 10.1 9.8


P/BV (x) 9.5 10.5 10.1 9.8
ROE (%) 27% 30% 36% 40%
Source: Company, Axis Research

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Key Concall Highlights
 Vertical Commentary: For the FSI vertical, Infosys has seen a strong demand uptick in the last few quarters in the areas of
customer experience transformation, front-to-back digitization, mortgages, call centre technology, and operations lending services.
There are higher investments in the large end-to-end digital transformation programs. 8 large deal wins in this segment will provide
an excellent base for growth in FY23. The company’s growth in the Retail segment continues to remain strong as well. Areas such
as commerce, marketing, supply chain, and analytics are witnessing traction. The company has a healthy pipeline in this vertical.

 Encouraging clients addition: Infosys added 110 new clients during the quarter. Utilization stood at 80% (including trainees) and
87% (excluding trainees). The company’s net employee addition stood strong, indicating the ramp up on the new deal wins and
robust demand scenario at 21,948 though attrition increased by 2.2% to 27.7% from 25.5% in Q4FY22. In this view, the
management has undertaken several initiatives to control attrition in the forthcoming quarters.

 Margins to be under pressure: The margins are likely to be under pressure due to a rise in travel costs, Onsite and offshore mix,
and higher subcontracting costs but cost optimizations efforts will help the company sustain its margins at guided levels. Reduced
dependency on subcontractor costs and efficiencies from automation are margin tailwinds for FY23.

Active clients

Q1 FY21 Q2 FY21 Q3 FY21 Q4 FY21 Q1 FY22 Q2 FY22 Q3 FY22


Active clients 1458 1487 1562 1626 1669 1714 1738
Added during the quarter 110 96 139 130 113 117 111
Source: Company, Axis Research

Client Parameters

Q1 FY21 Q2 FY21 Q3 FY21 Q4 FY21 Q1 FY22 Q2 FY22 Q3 FY22


$1 Mn clients 729 745 761 779 805 841 854
$10 Mn clients 236 245 246 252 264 270 274
$50 Mn clients 60 60 60 59 59 62 64
$100 Mn clients 135 30 29 32 34 35 37
Source: Company, Axis Research

Human Resources

Q1 FY21 Q2 FY21 Q3 FY21 Q4 FY21 Q1 FY22 Q2 FY22 Q3 FY22


Total Headcount 239233 240208 249312 259619 267953 279617 292067

Net Addition -3138 975 9104 10307 8334 11664 12450

Attrition (%) 11.70% 7.80% 10% 11% 14% 20% 26%


Source: Company, Axis Research

Total TCV (In $Bn)

Q1 FY21 Q2 FY21 Q3 FY21 Q4 FY21 Q1 FY22 Q2 FY22 Q3 FY22


Total TCV (In $Bn) 1,744 3,145 7,129 2,111 2,570 2,150 2,553
Source: Company, Axis Research

Consolidated cash and investments ($ Mn)

Q1 FY21 Q2 FY21 Q3 FY21 Q4 FY21 Q1 FY22 Q2 FY22 Q3 FY22


Consolidated cash and
3,797 4,555 4,538 5,288 5,076 4,418 4,280
investments ($ Mn)
Source: Company, Axis Research

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Revenues by offering

Q1 FY21 Q2 FY21 Q3 FY21 Q4 FY21 Q1 FY22 Q2 FY22 Q3 FY22


Digital 26% 25% 31% 34% 42% 56% 59%

Core -12% -12% -10% -8% -3% 14% 42%


Source: Company, Axis Research

Revenues by offering

Q1 FY21 Q2 FY21 Q3 FY21 Q4 FY21 Q1 FY22 Q2 FY22 Q3 FY22


Financial Services 2.1% 2.9% 12.0% 15.6% 22.6% 32.3% 31.5%

Retail -7.4% -0.3% 2.0% 4.5% 22.2% 14.6% 14.6%

Communication -0.7% -1.8% 0.8% -0.8% 4.6% 12.4% 12.5%

Energy, Utilities, Resources & Servcies -0.2% -3.7% 4.9% 4.9% 10.5% 11.8% 11.7%

Manufacturing 0.3% -8.2% -4.1% 3.4% 18.5% 10.9% 11.3%

Hi-Tech 13.4% 24.4% 17.4% 15.5% 14.8% 14.8% 8.1%

Life Sciences 7.7% 7.4% 11.0% 18.3% 21.2% 7.1% 7.5%

Others 24.4% 24.8% 2.7% 25.8% 10.2% 2.4% 2.9%


Source: Company, Axis Research

Revenues by offering

Q1 FY21 Q2 FY21 Q3 FY21 Q4 FY21 Q1 FY22 Q2 FY22 Q3 FY22


North America 0.0% 1.9% 8.8% 12.3% 21.1% 21.3% 21.4%

Europe 4.4% 0.6% 1.3% 5.1% 12.2% 24.8% 27.8%

India 32.8% 20.4% 4.3% 30.8% 20.7% 10.6% 6.4%

ROW -2.0% 3.7% 6.1% -0.9% 4.9% 2.4% 40.1%


Source: Company, Axis Research

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Valuation & Outlook
In light of a robust demand scenario across geographies for digital and allied next-generation services and Infosys’s track record of
delivering profitable growth even in a tough environment, we believe the company is well-placed to deliver sustainable growth in the long
term. We recommend a BUY rating on the stock and assign a 29x P/E multiple to its FY24E earnings of Rs 73.5/share to arrive at a
TP of Rs 2,140/share, implying an upside of 14% from the CMP.

Infosys 12M Fwd PE Band Infosys 1Y Fwd PE Chart

35 Infosys 1Y Fwd PE Chart Infosys 12M Fwd PE Band


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Mean Mean+1Stdev Mean-1Stdev PE Price 15x 20x 25x 30x

ource: Company, Axis Securities

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Result Update (Rs Cr)

% Change % Change
Y/E March Q3FY22 Q2FY22 Q3FY21
(YoY) (QoQ)

Total Revenue 31,867 29,602 25,927 23% 8%

Total Cost of Sales 21,415 19,806 16,777

Gross Profit 10,452 9,796 9,150 14% 7%

Margin(%) 33% 33% 35% -249 -29

Employee Cost 1,325 1,235 1,145

Other Costs 1,643 1,589 1,416

Total Operating Expenses 2,968 2,824 2,561

Operating Income 6,972 6,972 6,228 12% 0%

Margin (%) 22% 24% 24% -214 -167

Total Other Income/(Expense) 459 476 611

Income Before Income Taxes 7,943 7,448 7,151

Total Taxes 2,121 2,020 1,936

ETR (%) 27% 27% 27% -37 -42

Net Profit After Taxes 5,421 5,421 5,215 4% 0%

Non-Controlling Interest 13 7 18

Net Income After Extraordinary Items 5,809 5,421 5,197 12% 7%

Margin (%) 20% 20% 21% -123 -

EPS 13.83 12.88 12.23 13% 7%

Source: Company, Axis Securities

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Financials (Consolidated)
Profit & Loss (Rs Cr)
Y/E March FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E
Net sales 1,00,472 1,21,641 1,39,219 1,60,687
Growth, % 11% 21% 14% 15%
Other income 2,201 2,295 3,194 3,409
Total income 10,267 12,394 14,241 16,410
Employee expenses 55,541 63,378 78,779 87,648
Other Operating expenses 17,042 21,898 25,079 28,943
EBITDA (Core) 27,889 36,365 38,285 44,992
Growth, % 25% 30% 5% 18%
Margin, % 28% 30% 28% 28%
Depreciation 3,267 3,204 3,769 4,436
EBIT 24,622 28,015 34,517 39,659
Growth, % 27% 14% 23% 15%
Margin, % 25% 23% 25% 25%
Interest paid 195 200 168 168
Pre-tax profit 26,628 30,110 34,349 43,068
Tax provided 7,205 7,964 10,275 12,665
Profit after tax 19,417 22,146 26,540 30,397
Net Profit 19,417 22,146 26,540 30,397
Growth, % 17% 14% 20% 15%
Net Profit (adjusted) 19,417 22,146 26,540 30,397
Source: Company, Axis Securities

Balance Sheet (Rs Cr)


Y/E March FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E
Cash & bank 24,714 17,102 14,764 11,920
Debtors 19,294 21,662 24,792 28,616
Other current assets 6,668 7,335 8,068 8,875
Total current assets 60,733 53,783 56,345 59,367
Goodwill and Intangible Assets 6,079 6,079 6,079 6,079
Net fixed assets 14,577 13,200 13,736 14,265
CWIP 954 1,068 1,197 1,340
Other Non current assets 6,153 6,153 6,153 6,153
Total Non Current Assets 2,776 2,650 2,717 2,784

Total assets 1,08,386 1,00,169 1,03,268 1,06,817

Creditors 3,383 3,972 4,837 5,430


Provisions 16,376 15,698 16,239 17,103
Total current liabilities 1,976 1,967 207 22
Other liabilities 11,497 10,171 10,171 10,171
Paid-up capital 2,124 2,124 2,124 2,124
Reserves & surplus 74,227 75,299 76,272 77,488
Shareholders’ equity 7,635 7,742 813 85
Total equity & liabilities 1,08,386 1,00,169 1,03,268 1,06,817
Source: Company, Axis Securities

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Cash Flow (Rs Cr)
Y/E March FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E
Pre-tax profit 26,628 35,678 34,618 43,068
Depreciation 3,267 3,204 3,769 4,436
Chg in working capital 2,917 111 -2,776 -3,531
Total tax paid 7,205 8,877 10,275 12,665
Cash flow from operating activities 32,806 38,988 35,604 43,967
Capital expenditure 2,845 3,764 4,305 4,964
Cash flow from investing activities -10,571 -3,764 -4,305 -4,964
Free cash flow 2,508 3,899 400 41
Dividend (incl. tax) -1,231 -1,330 -136 -14
Cash flow from financing activities 9,673 -8,235 0 0
Net chg in cash -3,608 623 -2,339 -2,843

Source: Company, Axis Securities

Ratio Analysis (%)


Y/E March FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E
Per Share data
EPS (INR) 45.5 52.4 60.8 71.1
Growth, % 17% 16% 16% 17%
Book NAV/share (INR) 179.3 181.9 184.2 187.0
FDEPS (INR) 42 46 47 48.2
CEPS (INR) 53.3 70.5 66.0 81.8
CFPS (INR) 43.8 42.8 48.364 54.65132
DPS (INR) 25 27 30.51 34.4763

Return ratios 18% 27% 24% 28%


Return on assets (%) 27% 30% 36% 40%
Return on equity (%) 25% 25% 29% 32%
Return on capital employed (%)
2.6 2.8 3.1 4.2
Turnover ratios 7.4 10.0 11.1 12.4
Asset turnover (x) 70 65 65 65
Sales/Total assets (x) 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2
Receivables Days
Cash conversion cycle 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.0
1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3
Liquidity ratios
Current ratio (x) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
Interest cover (x)
37.3 33.4 28.4 24.5
Net debt/Equity (%) 7.2 5.9 5.2 4.5
9.5 10.5 10.1 9.8
Valuation 31.9 24.1 25.7 20.8
PER (x) 179.3 164.0 176.0 187.0
Price/Book (x) 45.5 52.4 60.8 71.1
EV/Net sales (x) 17% 16% 16% 17%
EV/EBITDA (x) 179.3 181.9 184.2 187.0
Dividend Yield 42 46 47 48.2

Source: Company, Axis Securities

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Infosys Price Chart and Recommendation History

(Rs)

Date Reco TP Research


14-Jan-20 BUY 860 Result Update
03-Feb-20 BUY 860 Pick of the week
03-Apr-20 BUY 720 Pick of the week
16-Jul-20 BUY 940 Result Update
15-Oct-20 BUY 1,314 Result Update
11-Nov-20 BUY 1,350 Result Update
23-Dec-20 BUY 1,404 Company Update
31-Dec-20 BUY 1,404 New Year Pick - 2021
14-Jan-21 BUY 1,666 Result Update
25-Jan-21 BUY 1,495 Pick of the week
15-Apr-21 BUY 1,550 Result Update
16-Jun-21 BUY 1,620 AAA
15-Jul-21 BUY 1,740 Result Update
14-Oct-21 BUY 1,930 Result Update
13-Jan-22 BUY 2,140 Result Update
18-Apr-22 BUY 2,060 Result Update

Source: Axis Securities

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About the analyst

Omkar Tanksale

Research Analyst

omkar.tanksale@axissecurities.in

Call: (022) 4267 1737

Disclosures:

The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).
1. Axis Securities Ltd. (ASL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000297. ASL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the
Regulations, is engaged in the business of providing Stock broking services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial products. ASL is a
subsidiary company of Axis Bank Ltd. Axis Bank Ltd. is a listed public company and one of India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries
engaged in businesses of Asset management, NBFC, Merchant Banking, Trusteeship, Venture Capital, Stock Broking, the details in respect of which are
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of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI) for distribution of financial products and also registered with IRDA as a corporate agent for insurance business activity.
3. ASL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report.
4. I/We, Omkar Tanksale, MBA-Finance, author/s and the name/s subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report
accurately reflect my/our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. I/We (Research Analyst) also certify that no part of my/our compensation was, is, or will
be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. I/we or my/our relative or ASL does not have any financial interest in the
subject company. Also I/we or my/our relative or ASL or its Associates may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the
month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Since associates of ASL are engaged in various financial service businesses, they
might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report. I/we or my/our
relative or ASL or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest. I/we have not served as director / officer, etc. in the subject company in the last 12-
month period. Any holding in stock – No
5. 5. ASL has not received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months. ASL has not been engaged in market making activity for the
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Received compensation for investment banking, merchant banking or stock broking services or for any other services from the subject company of this research report
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DEFINITION OF RATINGS

Ratings Expected absolute returns over 12-18 months

BUY More than 10%

HOLD Between 10% and -10%

SELL Less than -10%

NOT RATED We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning valuation and recommendation

UNDER REVIEW We will revisit our recommendation, valuation and estimates on the stock following recent events

NO STANCE We do not have any forward looking estimates, valuation or recommendation for the stock

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