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Question: According to MessageLabs Ltd., 80%

of all email sent in July
2018 was spam. A system
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manager at a...

According to MessageLabs Ltd., 80% of all email sent in July

2018 was spam. A
system manager at a large corporation believes
that the percentage at his company
may be greater than 80%. He
examines a random sample of 500 emails received at
an email server
and finds that 418 of the messages are spam.

a. Who/what is the population and what is the parameter of

interest? Use the proper
notation

b. What are the Null and Alternative hypotheses, in words and in

notation? Ho: Ha:

c. This test is: One-sided Two-sided

d. Calculate the test statistic for our sample proportion,

assuming the null hypothesis
is true.

e. Are the inference conditions met in this situation for a one

proportion z-test?

f. What is the probability that an email is spam in our sample,

assuming the null
hypothesis is true (i.e. compute the p-value)?
(sketch helpful here)

g. Interpret the p-value

h. Based on the p-value, what is your conclusion regarding the

Null Hypothesis?
What is your conclusion in context?

i. What would the p-value be if we wanted to test if fewer than

80% of emails were
spam at the manager’s company?

j. Would we expect a 95% confidence interval to include 0.80?

Why or why not?

Expert Answer

Anonymous
answered this

Given that,

possibile chances (x)=418

sample size(n)=500

success rate ( p )= x/n = 0.836

success probability,( po )=0.8

failure probability,( qo) = 0.2

null, Ho:p=0.8

alternate, H1: p>0.8

level of significance, α = 0.05

from standard normal table,right tailed z α/2 =1.645

since our test is right-tailed

reject Ho, if zo > 1.645

we use test statistic z proportion = p-po/sqrt(poqo/n)

zo=0.836-0.8/(sqrt(0.16)/500)

zo =2.012

| zo | =2.012

critical value

the value of |z α| at los 0.05% is 1.645

we got |zo| =2.012 & | z α | =1.645

make decision

hence value of | zo | > | z α| and here we reject Ho

p-value: right tail - Ha : ( p > 2.01246 ) = 0.02209

hence value of p0.05 > 0.02209,here we reject Ho

ANSWERS

---------------

a.

the population and the parameter of interest is Z test for

proportion

b.

null, Ho:p=0.8

alternate, H1: p>0.8

c.
one sided test

d.

test statistic: 2.012

e.

yes,

the inference conditions met in this situation for a one proportion

z-test

critical value: 1.645

decision: reject Ho

f.

the probability that an email is spam in our sample, assuming the

null hypothesis is
true

p-value: 0.02209

g.

p value is greater than alpha value

i.

the p-value be if we wanted to test if fewer than 80% of emails

were spam at the
manager’s compan

we have enough evidence to support the claim that A system manager

at a large
corporation believes that the percentage at his company
may be greater than 80%.

j.

TRADITIONAL METHOD

given that,

possible chances (x)=418

sample size(n)=500

success rate ( p )= x/n = 0.836

I.

sample proportion = 0.836

standard error = Sqrt ( (0.836*0.164) /500) )

= 0.017

II.

margin of error = Z a/2 * (standard error)

where,

Za/2 = Z-table value

level of significance, α = 0.05

from standard normal table, two tailed z α/2 =1.96

margin of error = 1.96 * 0.017

= 0.032

III.

CI = [ p ± margin of error ]
confidence interval = [0.836 ± 0.032]

= [ 0.804 , 0.868]

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DIRECT METHOD

given that,

possible chances (x)=418

sample size(n)=500

success rate ( p )= x/n = 0.836

CI = confidence interval

confidence interval = [ 0.836 ± 1.96 * Sqrt ( (0.836*0.164) /500) )

]

= [0.836 - 1.96 * Sqrt ( (0.836*0.164) /500) , 0.836 + 1.96 * Sqrt

( (0.836*0.164) /500) ]

= [0.804 , 0.868]

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

interpretations:

1. We are 95% sure that the interval [ 0.804 , 0.868] contains the
true population
proportion

2. If a large number of samples are collected, and a confidence

interval is created

for each sample, 95% of these intervals will contains the true
population proportion

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