Probability,

Estimation, and
Hypothesis Testing

Submitted by:
Baculpo, Meriam Claire
Boholst, Karen Ces
Boholst, Mikhaela Claire
Evia, Christian Laurence
Lurot, Kaila
Pasigian, Jaya Gloria
Sendin, Jolly

Section:
BSPT1-1 & BSOT1-1

April 2022
I. Probability

1. Cross Tabulations of Data Frequencies and Totals

a. Degree Program and Sex

b. Degree Program and Type of Student

c. Degree Program and Perceived Quality of Life (QOL)

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 d. Degree Program and Perceived Health Satisfaction

e. Degree Program and Physical Activity Category

2. Calculate the Probabilities

a. The probability of selecting a female student.

P (E) = m/N
P (E) = 59/84
P (E) = 70.24% or .7024
∴ The probability of selecting a female student is 70.24%.

b. The probability of selecting a male BSPT student.

P (E∩A) = (E∩A)/N
P (E∩A) = 16/84
P (E∩A) = 19.05% or .1905
∴ The probability of selecting a male BSPT student is 19.05%.

c. The probability of selecting an irregular BSRT student.

P (E∩A) = (E∩A)/N
P (E∩A) = 2/84
P (E∩A) = 2.38% or .0238
∴ The probability of selecting an irregular BSRT student is 2.38%.

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 d. The probability of selecting a BSOT student who perceives having a very good quality of life.
P (E∩A) = (E∩A)/N
P (E∩A) = 2/84
P (E∩A) = 2.38% or .0238
∴ The probability of selecting a BSOT student who perceives having a very good quality of life is 2.38%.

e. The probability of selecting a BSPT student who is very satisfied with his/her health.
P (E∩A) = (E∩A)/N
P (E∩A) = 6/84
P (E∩A) = 7.14% or .0714
∴ The probability of selecting a BSPT student who is very satisfied with his/her health is 7.14%.

f. The probability of NOT selecting a BSRT student.

P (𝐴) = 1 - P(A)
19
P ( 𝐴) = 1 - 84

P (𝐴) = 77.38% or .7738

∴ The probability of NOT selecting a BSRT student is 77.38%.

g. The probability of selecting a male student OR a BSOT student.

P (E ∪ A) = P (E) + P (A) - P (E∪A)
P (E ∪ A) = (25/84) + (21/84) - (6/84) = (.2976) + (.25) - (.0714)
P (E ∪ A) = 47.62% or .4762
∴ The probability of selecting a male student OR a BSOT student is 47.62%.

h. The probability of selecting a BSPT student with a high physical activity level.
P (E∩A) = (E∩A)/N
P (E∩A) = 14/84
P (E∩A) = 16.67% or .1667
∴ The probability of selecting a BSPT student with a high physical activity level is 16.67%.

II. Sensitivity, Specificity, Predictive Value Positive, and Predictive Value Negative

COVID-19 Diagnosis

RTPCR Test Result Yes (D) No (𝐷) Total

Positive (T) 1409 10 1419

Negative (𝑇) 10 26771 26781

Total 1419 26781 28200

*For prevalence of RT PCR test in the Philippines, recent data from OCTA Research showed a positivity rate of 5% in
the general population as of October 28, 2021.

a. Sensitivity
P (T/D) = a / (a+c)
P (T/D) = 1409/1419
P (T/D) = .993 or 99.30%
∴The probability of a positive test result given the presence of the disease is 99.30%.

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 b. Specificity
P (𝑇/𝐷) = d / (b+d)
P (𝑇/𝐷) = 26771/26781
P (𝑇/𝐷) = 1.00 or 100%
∴The probability of a negative test result given the absence of the disease is 100%.

c. Predictive Value Positive

𝑃(𝑇/𝐷)𝑃(𝐷)
𝑃 (𝐷/𝑇) =
𝑃(𝑇/𝐷)𝑃(𝐷) + 𝑃(𝑇/𝐷)𝑃(𝐷)
(0.993)(0.05)
𝑃 (𝐷/𝑇) = (0.993)(0.05) + (.0004)(1−0.05)
P (D/T) = .9924 or 99.24%
∴The probability that an individual has COVID-19 given that they tested positive is 99.24%.

d. Predictive Value Negative

𝑃(𝑇/𝐷)𝑃(𝐷)
𝑃 (𝐷/𝑇) =
𝑃(𝑇/𝐷)𝑃(𝐷) + 𝑃(𝑇/𝐷)𝑃(𝐷)
(1.0)(1−0.05)
𝑃 (𝐷/𝑇) = (1.0)(1−0.05) + (.0007)(0.05)

𝑃 (𝐷/𝑇) = .999632 or 99.96%

∴The probability that an individual does not have COVID-19 given that they tested negative is 99.96%.

III. Estimation and Confidence Intervals

1. Using the data set, identify the mean and confidence intervals (set at 95%) for the following variables:

A. Total METs-Minute per week for all the samples

We are 95% confident that the population mean for the Total METs-Minute per week across all samples will fall
between 1461.774 and 2749.880.

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B. Male and female HR QOL

i. Physical Health domain

We are 95% confident that the population mean for the Physical Health Domain across all samples will fall between
12.396755023228566 and 13.714625122049881 for Females, and13.239680591921683 and 15.331747979506892
for Males.

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ii. Psychological domain

We are 95% confident that the population mean for the Psychological Domain across all samples will fall between
11.998684687219354 and 13.447642996396462 for Females, and 12.065017172730675 and 14.4949827269322 for
Males.

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iii. Social Relationship domain

We are 95% confident that the population mean for the Social Relationship Domain across all samples will fall
between 13.909260097511382 and 15.243282275369975 for Females, and 13.479099879134303 and
16.600900120865700 for Males.

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iv. Environment domain

We are 95% confident that the population mean for the Environment Domain across all samples will fall between
14.053 and 15.286 for Females, and 13.485 and 15.435 for Males.

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IV. Sampling Distributions

A. Physical Health

Figure 1. Sampling Distribution of Physical Health Domain in Female Respondents

Figure 2. Sampling Distribution of Physical Health Domain in Male Respondents

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 I. Normality of the Distribution of Physical Health Domain in Male and Female

TEST OF NORMALITY

Kolmogorov-Smirnov Shapiro-Wilk

Sex Statistic df Sig. Statistic df Sig.

Physical Health Female .074 59 .200* .986 59 .727

Male .091 25 .200* .964 25 .503

*This is a lower bound of the true significance.
a. LillieforsSignificant Correction

The p-value for both male and female is greater than 0.05 which means that the data for the physical health domain
is normally distributed.

B. Psychological

Figure 3. Sampling Distribution of Psychological Domain in Female Respondents

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 Figure 4. Sampling Distribution of Psychological Domain in Male Respondents

I. Normality of the Distribution of Psychological Domain in Male and Female

TEST OF NORMALITY

Kolmogorov-Smirnov Shapiro-Wilk

Sex Statistic df Sig. Statistic df Sig.

Psychological Female .119 59 .037 .974 59 .234

Male .117 25 .200* .971 25 .659

*This is a lower bound of the true significance.
b. LillieforsSignificant Correction

The p-value for both male and female is greater than 0.05 which means that the data for the psychological domain is
normally distributed.

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C. Social Relationships

Figure 5. Sampling Distribution of Social Relationship Domain in Female Respondents

Figure 6. Sampling Distribution of Social Relationship Domain in Male Respondents

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 I. Normality of the Distribution of Social Relationship Domain in Male and Female

TEST OF NORMALITY

Kolmogorov-Smirnov Shapiro-Wilk

Sex Statistic df Sig. Statistic df Sig.

Social Female .175 59 <.001 .961 59 .055

Relationship
Male .206 25 .008 .871 25 .005
*This is a lower bound of the true significance.
c. LillieforsSignificant Correction

The p-value for both male and female is less than 0.05 which means that the data for the social relationship domain is
not normally distributed. However, on the Shapiro-Wilk Test of Normality, the p-value is greater than 0.05 in females
which states that the data of social relationships domain in females is normally distributed.

D. Environment

Figure 7. Sampling Distribution of Environmental Domain in Female Respondents

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 Figure 8. Sampling Distribution of Environmental Domain in Male Respondents

I. Normality of the Distribution of Environmental Domain in Male and Female

TEST OF NORMALITY

Kolmogorov-Smirnov Shapiro-Wilk

Sex Statistic df Sig. Statistic df Sig.

Environment Female .071 59 .200* .980 59 .433

Male .077 25 .200* .982 25 .926

*This is a lower bound of the true significance.

d. LillieforsSignificant Correction

The p-value for both male and female is greater than 0.05 which means that the data for the environmental domain is
normally distributed.

V. Hypothesis Testing

1. Using the data set provided, compare the means of the total METS-Minute per week between the 2 sexes.

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2. Use the steps in hypothesis testing:

a. State the null and alternative hypotheses

Null hypothesis (H0): There is no significant difference in the means of the total METS-minutes per
week between males and females.
Alternative hypothesis (HA): There is a significant difference in the means of the total
METS-minutes per week between males and females.

b. State the level of significance:

The level of significance is 0.05.

c. Choose the test statistic

i. The data is not normally distributed because the p-value of both male and female (p = <.001) is
less than 0.05.

ii. The groups have unequal variance because the p-value (p = .026) is less than 0.05.

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 iii. Hence, we will use a nonparametric test.

iv. 2 out of 3 assumptions are rejected; the data is not normally distributed and different samples
have unequal variance. Therefore, we will utilize the Mann-Whitney U Test (a nonparametric
comparison of means for 2 independent samples).

d. Compute the test statistic

e. The asymptotic significance is higher than the significance level (.225 > .050). Since it’s higher than the
p-value, we will not reject the null hypothesis.

f. We therefore conclude that males and females are not significantly different in terms of the means of their
total METs-minute per week. This is due to some factors, like the fact that even though the mean of the females is
low, their population is higher than the males. And even though the mean of the males is high, their population is
lower than the females.