Ontong Java Atoll

Shortland
Islands Choiseul South Pacific Ocean

Vella Lavella Santa Isabel

Kolombangara
Ranongga New
Georgia
ew Sikaiana Atoll
N

Ge Rendova Vangunu
or
gia
Isla Russell Islands Malaita
nds HONIARA

Guadalcanal

Solomon Sea Ugi I.

Makira
Ndeni

Utupua
Rennell
Vanikoro Is.

Current and future climate of the

Solomon Islands

> Solomon Islands Meteorological Service

> Australian Bureau of Meteorology
> Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
 Current climate
of the Solomon Islands
Temperatures in the Solomon Islands are relatively constant throughout the occurs across the tropical Pacific Ocean
year with only very small changes from season to season. Across the Solomon and affects weather around the world.
Islands temperatures are strongly tied to changes in the surrounding ocean There are two extreme phases of the
temperature. The country has two distinct seasons – a wet season from El Niño-Southern Oscillation: El Niño
November to April and a dry season from May to October (Figure 1). and La Niña. There is also a neutral
phase. El Niño events bring warmer,
Honiara has a very marked wet season thunderstorm activity. The South Pacific drier wet season conditions, while
when on average almost 70% of the Convergence Zone extends across the La Niña events usually bring cooler,
yearly total rain falls. In the dry season Pacific Ocean from the Solomon Islands wetter wet seasons. The impact is
(May to October) on average about to the Cook Islands. The Intertropical stronger in Santa Cruz than in Honiara.
100 mm falls per month compared to Convergence Zone extends across
upwards of 300 mm in wet season
months. Further to the east, Santa
the Pacific just north of the equator
(Figure 2). The West Pacific Monsoon extreme
Cruz receives more constant rainfall also influences rainfall in the Solomon weather events
during the year, averaging between Islands. The monsoon is driven by
Tropical cyclones result in
280 mm and 420 mm per month. large differences in temperature
flooding and wind damage in
between the land and the ocean, and
Rainfall in the Solomon Islands is the Solomon Islands. There
its arrival usually brings a switch from
affected by the movement of the have been severe floods on
very dry to very wet conditions.
South Pacific Convergence Zone and Guadalcanal, Malaita, Makira
the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The climate of the Solomon Islands and Santa Isabel in recent
These bands of heavy rainfall are varies considerably from year to year years with a number of lives
caused by air rising over warm water due to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. lost, and severe damage to
where winds converge, resulting in This is a natural climate pattern that agriculture and infrastructure.

Maximum temperature Average temperature Minimum temperature Sea surface temperature

500
500
35

35

Honiara, Solomon Islands, 159.97ºE, 9.42ºS Santa Cruz, Solomon Islands, 165.80°E, 10.70°S
400
400

Monthly rainfall (mm)

Monthly rainfall (mm)
30

30
Temperature (ºC)
Temperature (ºC)

300
300
25

25

200
200
20

20

100
100
15

15

0
0

Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct

Figure 1: Seasonal rainfall and temperature at Honiara and Santa Cruz.

2
 20oN
H

10oN
Palau Federated States of Micronesia
Marshall Islands
I n t e r t r o p i c a l C o n v e r g e n c e Z o n e
Kiribati
Wa r m Tr a d e W i n d s

0o
Nauru
poo
l
So
M o Papua New Guinea ut
n h Tuvalu
East Timor s o o n Pa
Solomon Islands

10oS
cif
ic
Co
nve
Fiji
Samoa rge
Vanuatu nc
Niue e
Zo

20oS
Tonga Cook Islands ne

30oS
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
Kilometres
110oE

120oE

130oE

140oE

150oE

160oE

170oE

180o

170oW

160oW

150oW

140oW
Figure 2: The average positions of the major climate features in November to April. The arrows show near surface winds,
the blue shading represents the bands of rainfall convergence zones, the dashed oval shows the West Pacific Warm Pool
and H represents typical positions of moving high pressure systems.

Tropical
cyclones
6
Number of tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclones 11-yr moving average

5

4 Tropical cyclones affect the

Solomon Islands between
3
November and April. In the
2 41-year period between 1969
and 2010, 41 tropical cyclones
1
passed within 400 km of
0 Honiara, an average of one
cyclone per season (Figure 3).
7 0
7 2
7 4
7 6
7 8
8 0
8 2
8 4
8 6
8 8
9 0
9 2
9 4
9 6
9 8
0 0
0 2
0 4
0 6
09 8
0
19 9/7
19 1/7
19 3/7
19 5/7
19 7/7
19 9/8
19 1/8
19 3/8
19 5/8
19 7/8
19 9/9
19 1/9
19 3/9
19 5/9
19 7/9
20 9/0
20 1/0
20 3/0
20 5/0
20 7/0
/1

The number of cyclones varies

6
19

widely from year to year, with

Figure 3: Number of tropical cyclones passing within 400 km of Honiara.
none in some seasons but up
Eleven-year moving average in purple.
to five in others. Over the period
1969–2010, cyclones occured
more frequently in El Niño years.

3
 Changing climate
of the Solomon Islands
Instruments mounted on satellites and
Temperatures No rainfall change tide gauges are used to measure sea
have increased Data for Honiara since 1950 level. Satellite data indicate the sea level
show no clear trends in annual or has risen near the Solomon Islands
Annual maximum and minimum
seasonal rainfall. Over this period, by about 8 mm per year since 1993.
temperatures have increased in Honiara
there has been substantial variation This is larger than the global average
since 1951 (Figure 4). Maximum
in rainfall from year to year. of 2.8–3.6 mm per year. This higher
temperatures have increased at a rate of
rate of rise may be partly related to
0.15°C per decade since 1951. These
temperature increases are consistent
Sea level has risen natural fluctuations that take place year
to year or decade to decade caused
with the global pattern of warming. As ocean water warms it expands by phenomena such as the El Niño-
causing the sea level to rise. The Southern Oscillation. This variation in
melting of glaciers and ice sheets sea level can be seen in Figure 7 which
also contributes to sea-level rise. includes the tide gauge record since
28.5
El Niño La Niña 1974 and satellite data since 1993.
Average Temperature (ºC)

28
Ocean acidification
27.5
has been increasing
27
About one quarter of the carbon dioxide
26.5 emitted from human activities each
year is absorbed by the oceans. As the
26
extra carbon dioxide reacts with sea
25.5 water it causes the ocean to become
slightly more acidic. This impacts
1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

the growth of corals and organisms

Year
that construct their skeletons from
Figure 4: Annual average temperature for Honiara. Light blue bars indicate
carbonate minerals. These species are
El Niño years, dark blue bars indicate La Niña years and the grey bars
critical to the balance of tropical reef
indicate neutral years.
ecosystems. Data show that since
the 18th century the level of ocean
4000
El Niño La Niña acidification has been slowly increasing
3500 in the Solomon Islands’ waters.
3000
Rainfall (mm)

2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Year
Figure 5: Annual rainfall for Honiara. Light blue bars indicate El Niño years,
dark blue bars indicate La Niña years and the grey bars indicate neutral years.

Coastal village of Lilisiana,

Malaita Province.

4
Future climate
of the Solomon Islands
Climate impacts almost all aspects of life in the Solomon Islands. Understanding the possible future
climate of the Solomon Islands is important so people and the government can plan for changes.

How do scientists develop climate projections?

Global climate models are the best tools
for understanding future climate change.
Climate models are mathematical
representations of the climate system
that require very powerful computers.
They are based on the laws of physics
and include information about the
or scenarios, in climate models. The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) developed a series of
plausible scenarios based on a set of
assumptions about future population
changes, economic development and
2090
technological advances. For example,

CO2 Concentration (ppm)

atmosphere, ocean, land and ice.
There are many different global climate
models and they all represent the
climate slightly differently. Scientists
from the Pacific Climate Change
Science Program (PCCSP) have
evaluated 24 models from around
the world and found that 18 best
represent the climate of the western
tropical Pacific region. These 18 models
have been used to develop climate
projections for the Solomon Islands.
The future climate will be determined
by a combination of natural and human
factors. As we do not know what the
future holds, we need to consider a
range of possible future conditions,
the A1B (or medium) emissions scenario
envisages global population peaking
mid-century and declining thereafter,
very rapid economic growth, and
rapid introduction of new and more
efficient technologies. Greenhouse
gas and aerosol emissions scenarios
are used in climate modelling to
provide projections that represent
a range of possible futures.
The climate projections for the
Solomon Islands are based on three
IPCC emissions scenarios: low (B1),
medium (A1B) and high (A2), for time
periods around 2030, 2055 and 2090
(Figure 6). Since individual models
give different results, the projections
are presented as a range of values.
800
2055 700
2030 600
500
1990
400
300
Figure 6: Carbon dioxide (CO2)
concentrations (parts per million, ppm)
associated with three IPCC emissions
scenarios: low emissions (B1 – blue),
medium emissions (A1B – green) and
high emissions (A2 – purple). The
PCCSP has analysed climate model
results for periods centred on 1990,
2030, 2055 and 2090 (shaded).
Ministry of Environment, Climate Change,
Disaster Management and Meteorology

Flooding, Sikaiana Atoll,

Malaita Province 2006.

Aerial view of Western Province.

5
Future climate of the Solomon Islands
This is a summary of climate projections for the Solomon Islands. For further information refer to
Volume 2 of Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New Research, and the web-
based climate projections tool – Pacific Climate Futures (available at www.pacificclimatefutures.net).
Temperatures will
continue to increase
Projections for all emissions scenarios
indicate that the annual average
air temperature and sea surface
temperature will increase in the future in
the Solomon Islands (Table 1). By 2030,
under a high emissions scenario, this
increase in temperature is projected
to be in the range of 0.4–1.0°C.
More very hot days
Increases in average temperatures
will also result in a rise in the number
of hot days and warm nights and
a decline in cooler weather.
Above: king tide, Ta’arutona, West
Are’Are, Malaita Province, 2008.
Right: damage from Tropical Cyclone
Zoe in Tikopia, Temotu Province, 2002.
6
Table 1: Projected annual average air
temperature changes for the Solomon
Changing rainfall
Islands for three emissions scenarios patterns
and three time periods. Values
Average annual and season rainfall
represent 90% of the range of the
is projected to increase over the
models and changes are relative to
course of the 21st century. Wet
the average of the period 1980-1999.
season increases are likely due to
2030 2055 2090 the expected intensification of the
(°C) (°C) (°C) South Pacific Convergence Zone
Low 0.2–1.0 0.7–1.5 0.9 –2.1 and the Western Pacific Monsoon.
emissions However, there is some uncertainty
scenario in the rainfall projections and not
Medium 0.4–1.2 0.9–1.9 1.5 – 3.1
all models show consistent results.
Drought projections are inconsistent
emissions
across the Solomon Islands.
scenario
High
emissions
0.4–1.0 1.0–1.8 2.1–3.3 More extreme
scenario rainfall days
Model projections show extreme rainfall
days are likely to occur more often.
Photos courtesty of the Ministry of Environment, Climate Change, Disaster Management and Meteorology
Less frequent
but more intense
tropical cyclones
On a global scale, the projections
indicate there is likely to be a decrease
in the number of tropical cyclones by
the end of the 21st century. But there is
likely to be an increase in the average
maximum wind speed of cyclones by
between 2% and 11% and an increase
in rainfall intensity of about 20% within
100 km of the cyclone centre.
In the Solomon Islands’ region,
projections tend to show a
decrease in the frequency of tropical
cyclones by the late 21st century
and an increase in the proportion
of the more intense storms.
Sea level will Table 2: Sea-level rise projections
for the Solomon Islands for three
Ocean acidification
continue to rise emissions scenarios and three time will continue
periods. Values represent 90% of the
Sea level is expected to continue to Under all three emissions scenarios
range of the models and changes are
rise in the Solomon Islands (Table 2 (low, medium and high) the acidity level
relative to the average of the period
and Figure 7). By 2030, under a high of sea waters in the Solomon Islands
1980-1999.
emissions scenario, this rise in sea region will continue to increase over the
level is projected to be in the range of 2030 2055 2090 21st century, with the greatest change
(cm) (cm) (cm)
4-15 cm. The sea-level rise combined under the high emissions scenario.
with natural year-to-year changes will Low 4–14 10–26 17– 45 The impact of increased acidification
increase the impact of storm surges emissions on the health of reef ecosystems is
and coastal flooding. As there is still scenario likely to be compounded by other
much to learn, particularly how large Medium 5–14 8–30 19 –58 stressors including coral bleaching,
ice sheets such as Antarctica and emissions storm damage and fishing pressure.
Greenland contribute to sea-level scenario
rise, scientists warn larger rises than
High 4–15 8–30 20–60
currently predicted could be possible. emissions
scenario

90
Figure 7: Observed and projected
Reconstruction
relative sea-level change in Solomon 80
Satellite
Islands. The observed sea-level
70 Tide gauges (2)
records are indicated in dark blue
(relative tide-gauge observations) Projections
60
Sea level relative to 1990 (cm)

and light blue (the satellite record

since 1993). Reconstructed estimates 50
of sea level near the Solomon
Islands (since 1950) are shown 40
in purple. The projections for the 30
A1B (medium) emissions scenario
(representing 90% of the range of 20
models) are shown by the shaded
green region from 1990 to 2100. 10
The dashed lines are an estimate of 0
90% of the range of natural year-
to-year variability in sea level. −10

−20

−30
1950 2000 2050 2100
Year

7
 Changes in the
Solomon Islands’ climate
> Temperatures have > Rainfall at Honiara > By the end of this > Sea level near the > Ocean acidification
warmed and will shows no clear trend century projections Solomon Islands has been increasing in
continue to warm since 1950. Rainfall is suggest decreasing has risen and the Solomon Islands’
with more very hot generally projected to numbers of tropical will continue to waters. It will continue
days in the future. increase over this century cyclones but a rise throughout to increase and threaten
with more extreme possible shift this century. coral reef ecosystems.
rainfall days expected. towards more
intense categories.

The content of this brochure is the result of a collaborative effort between the Solomon Contact Solomon Islands
Islands Meteorological Service and the Pacific Climate Change Science Program – a Meteorological Service:
component of the Australian Government’s International Climate Change Adaptation
web: www.met.gov.sb
Initiative. This information and research conducted by the Pacific Climate Change
Science Program builds on the findings of the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.
email: met@met.gov.sb
For more detailed information on the climate of the Solomon Islands and the Pacific phone: +677 20332 or +677 27658
see: Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New Research. Volume
1: Regional Overview. Volume 2: Country Reports. Available from November 2011.
©P
 acific Climate Change Science
www.pacificclimatechangescience.org Program partners 2011.