Background and importance of HSR in India

The Indian High – Speed dream is 85 years old. The dream was first fulfilled by Germany in
1933 after the successful run of the flying Hamburg at 160kmph (99 mph) between Berlin and
Hamburg. The speed barrier further broke with the introduction of the Shinkansen Bullet Train
between Tokyo and Osaka in 1964 at a Maximum Operating Speed of 320 kmph (198 mph).
India made its first attempt to join the alliance of High-Speed Railway System in 1969 with the
inauguration of Rajdhani Express between Howrah and New Delhi, which had a Maximum
Permissible Speed of 115kmph (71 mph) in comparison to 80 kmph (49 mph) of other trains
during the period1. India has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Japan for
Technology Transfer of High-Speed Railways. The estimated cost of the project is expected to
be approximately 90,000 crores. The anticipated cost of track laying is between 100–200
crores per kilometre in comparison to the conventional track construction which costs 3-10
crores a kilometre and each train set would cost 120 crores. The project will be executed on a
cost-sharing basis, with JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency) providing funds at an
interest rate of 0.3% and 81% of the financing being done by Japan.

The Indian high – speed scenario saw diversification post-economic reforms, with the
focus also shifting to common people, with prices affordable to the working class or the
middle class with the introduction of Jan Shatabdi.

While diversifying train services, it is equally important to establish a strong

infrastructure, which was realized even before the ambitious diamond quadrilateral was
incepted, under the leadership of Dr E. Sreedharan, a former member of engineering, Railway
Board, marking a paradigm shift in track and bridge engineering.

The Indian high – speed scenario saw diversification post-economic reforms, with the
focus also shifting to common people, with prices affordable to the working class or the
middle class with the introduction of Jan Shatabdi.

While diversifying train services, it is equally important to establish a strong

infrastructure, which was realized even before the ambitious diamond quadrilateral was
incepted, under the leadership of Dr E. Sreedharan, a former member of engineering, Railway
Board, marking a paradigm shift in track and bridge engineering.

Contemporary Foreign Investments

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Germany has not only emerged as a major player in the rolling stock but is also carrying out
the feasibility study for a High – Speed Corridor between Mysuru and Chennai, the costs of
which will be borne by Germany over a yearlong study which it will be carrying out.

India has also entered into agreements with Alstom for the manufacture of electric
locomotives with Alstom, Siemens, GE and Bombardier have been shortlisted to manufacture
Electric Locomotives.

While Nations like Switzerland, Germany, US have been consistent contributors and
less of an aggressive competition has been witnessed, when coming to these nations, the
biggest competition is amongst China and Japan, both keen to seize the opportunity to
spread their influence into India through the High – Speed Railway Corridor Project of India.

While China is a state-owned railway, Japan on the other hand is a private venture
that is divided into seven divisions. There is also a distinction drawn in terms of management.
While Operations and Management are unilaterally managed in case of state-owned Railways
(e.g. India), there is a line of distinction drawn between Operations and Management
department in the case of Private owned railways (e.g. Amtrak, Japanese Railways).

In the Indian scenario, two financial institutions – The World Bank and Japan
International Cooperation Agency play an important role. High – Speed Corridors will also
include the Dedicated Freight Corridor, which aims to decongest the existing networks and
enable the smooth flow of freight traffic, with greater hauling capacities and higher speeds of
100 kmph (The current speed of freight trains is 75 kmph).

Recently, World Bank provided a loan of `5 Lakh Crores for the rehabilitation of core and
non – core operations of Indian Railways amongst which Catering and Safety have been
given the paramount importance.

CHALLENGES OF HIGH-SPEED RAILWAY IN INDIA

There exists a huge barrier between the expert recommendations and political will to
implement the recommendations of the committees over the years.

Indian Railways has been in desperate need of rolling stock rehabilitation, new locomotives,
immediate maintenance of tracks and bridges, which has been a warning sign for the railways
right from the 2002 Rafiganj Train Disaster to 2016 Pukhrayan Train Disaster. A brief overview
of railway safety post-Fatehpur Train Disaster of 2011, the rising trend in train accidents due to
failure of rolling stock, locomotives and tracks is strong evidence to growing negligence of the
railways towards the existing infrastructure and excessive emphasis on the increment in the rail
traffic, which has led to lesser maintenance time and increased stress on the tracks. As of 2018,

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India recorded 74 accidents, which has been a considerable decrease from the earlier 254
accidents. The railways have currently created a lapsable safety fund to ensure safe operation
of trains through the Railway Raksha Kosh amounting Rs. 100,000 crores. Some of the
operational and technical challenges are discussed hereunder.

Network and Capacity Augmentation

The network is divided into four categories for better management and operational
effectiveness:

1. High-Density Corridors

2. Feeder Lines

3. Alternative routes

4. Low traffic density routes

High-Density Corridors include the four metropolitan cities of the Golden Quadrilateral viz.
Delhi, Kolkata, Chennai and Mumbai, including diagonals. This route carries 55% of
passengers 65% of India’s total railway traffic. The Broad-Gauge forms 70.7% of the total
route. The Golden Quadrilateral forms 15.8% of the total network. There, however, exists an
excess of 56% of the total freight transport and 47% of the passenger traffic. The current
golden quadrilateral has been slated to be further upgraded to a diamond quadrilateral with
the high – speed network measuring 10,000 kilometres in length, with trains operating at
speeds of 300 kmph.

High-Saturation Rates

Indian Railways unlike Australia or America does not have dedicated lines to run trains. In the
Indian scenario, all trains run on the same line, although it is anticipated that the
much-awaited Dedicated Freight Corridor construction which commenced in 2009 is to be
completed by 2019.

Train Length and Level Crossings

If we are to achieve higher speeds, the aforementioned points form the first crucial element to
achieving the goal. This, however, is not valid in the case of India. Firstly, the train length
exceeds 10 coaches (this is ideal for High – Speed Services) while in India the maximum
length for the train is 24 coaches and there are close to 100,000 level crossings, which results
in speed reduction. The second concern is the location of homes close to tracks and
trespassing of tracks, which is another hindrance for the speed increment. The railways have
paced up its programme to replace level crossings with Over bridges and under bridges.

Signalling and Communication

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Indian Railways has still not achieved a modern signalling system. Many sections still rely on
the British- Era signalling system and the existing Route Relay Interlocking6 systems prone to
technical faults and glitches. In July 2015, a major fire at the Route Relay Interlocking Cabin
in Itarsi led to the cancellation of 50,000 tickets and a loss of 2500 crores. It is just not the
fault in the system, but also the financial constraints involved in dealing with glitches of such a
magnitude. When compared to the Indian Railways, the Japanese Railways are fully
automated, and the trains in Japan are also equipped with automatic earthquake detection
systems, which halts train operations in situations of earthquakes. The technology
up-gradation inclusive of infrastructure will cost the Indian railways approximately 17 trillion
dollars

Domestic And International Parameters

While there exists a common definition of High-Speed rail proposed by the International Union
of Railways (UIC), the parameters for classification of trains as High-Speed is dependent on
the local conditions of the country. In the present context, when determining the speed of
trains, two very critical factors are taken into due consideration, namely the track and rolling
stock. When comparing Indian Railways and Japanese Railways, we can find the following
differences:

Track

When considering track as one of the many determinants, there exists a humongous
difference between Indian Railways and Japanese Railways. The Japanese Railways
comprises a standard track measuring 4’8.5” against the multi-gauge system of Indian
Railways. Since the proposed High – Speed Rail Corridor will be connecting the metropolitan
cities, we will consider only the broad gauge, which measures 5’6”. Tracks in Indian
Railwaysvary in terms of their speed and weight. Other characteristics, which act as a
possible hindrance to the High – Speed Rail Corridor are the curves on the Indian Railway
tracks, which again are a hindrance to the high-speeds. As per the Research Design and
Standards Organization, the sanctioned speed for trains on curves is 60 kmph and the track
joints also inhibit the speed of trains.

Speed

There is also a great difference in speed on the network of railways on the network of Indian
Railways based on the gauge and the topographical conditions and the traffic conditions on
the lines. In the current scenario, the multi-gauge system acts as a hindrance to the uniformity
of speed.

Weight

Weight also plays an important role as it enables the stability of the train when passing at
speed. The speed of the train is inversely proportional to the weight of the track. The weight of

4
the tracks. Currently, two types of rails are being used on the Indian Railways, which are of
weights: 60kg/m3 and 52kg/m3 respectively.

Rolling Stock

Rolling stock again plays an important role in determining the speed of trains. When we look
at train sets like the Bullet train, they do not have a separate locomotive for powering the
train, whereas when looked at the Indian scenario, not just the separate locomotive and
coach arrangement but also the total length of the train plays the spoilsport. The total length
of a train in India is 24 coaches in the case of passenger trains across all variants. Secondly,
India is still operating the old Swiss Technology coaches for a majority of trains despite having
entered into agreements with German company Linke Hofmann Busch or LHB Coaches,
which are feasible from the safety point of view and greater speeds. Currently, Indian
Railways is producing only 4000 coaches on an average. After a spate of train accidents, the
ministry has decided to completely phase out ICF coaches by 2017 and completely switch
over to LHB coaches.

The switchover is concerned with the rising safety concerns and low speeds of ICF coaches.
While ICF coaches can achieve a maximum speed of 130 kmph and are telescopic, LHB has
a maximum operating speed of 200kmph with an anti-telescopic feature.7

REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH

The unbalanced spatial distribution of resources and economic development results in a great
demand for cross-regional mobility of personnel and materials. The urban agglomeration
constantly springs up in India with the rapid development of urbanization. As a result, higher
requirements for the carrying capacity of transportation infrastructure are raised because of the
growth in passenger transport demand among central cities and within the urban agglomeration.
The high-speed railway is characterized by high speed, large carrying capacity and extensive
coverage, which can meet the passenger transport demands of large capacity, high density,
efficiency and convenience.

High-speed railway can:

1) affect regional accessibility

2) enhance inter-regional economic ties

3) accelerate the social resource flow

5
 4) achieve the spatial agglomeration and re-allocation of economic activities which
promotes the regional economic growth.

Moreover, the high-speed rail station is often located in core cities, and the stop frequency is
based on cities’ level and strength, which leads to the accessibility betterment in major cities
and marginalization of small cities.

Key Terminologies

1. Benchmarking is intended to compare products or services with the

competition or with organizations that are recognized as leaders in their sector to
find best practices and ways to grow.

2. PPM analysis, where an output variable is viewed concerning a single input

variable.

3. A multi-PPM analysis, where more ratios are assessed at the same time.

4. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a non-parametric technique to compare

performance between entities, normally indicated as Decision Making Units
(DMUs), that allows multiple inputs and outputs.

5. Malmquist Productivity Index This index tells us how much the ratio of
aggregate output to aggregate input has changed between any two time periods.
This is a commonly applied approach to assessing dynamic efficiency in a DEA
environment

6. Network DEA Traditional DEA (TDEA) models are based on a “black box”
approach with multiple inputs and outputs

7. Efficiency, the ratio between output and input, is a key performance parameter
indicating if assets are properly used.

8. Effectiveness indicates if the inputs are properly used to produce the best
possible outcome.

9. The speeds of Express/ Superfast trains were increased to 110 kmph (68 mph) in 2004

10. Rajdhani refers to air-conditioned high – speed train service connecting the state
capital to the national capital

11 Diamond Quadrilateral has been proposed by the present government, which will be
10,000 km High – Speed Rail Corridor

6
 12 Shatabdi Express refers to air-conditioned high – speed intercity travel connecting
the major metros

13 Telescopic refers to the feature of one coach climbing upon another in the event of a
collision or derailment.

Methodology Used

China
With high speed, large capacity, and security, high-speed rail (HSR) improves the
economic connection between urban and regional areas. The opening of HSRs has a
profound effect on urban and regional spatial organization. The effect of HSR on
regions is re-elected by changes inaccessibility. Accessibility refers to the capability to
arrive at an appointed place at the appropriate time via a transportation facility. The
level of accessibility mainly depends on the mobility of a person and the opportunity
to achieve a goal. Accessibility is defined as the convenience degree from a given
position to another destination by a certain transportation tool Existing research on
HSR ac- accessibility has mainly contained the following research context: change of
HSR accessibility, spatial effects, and evolution of spatial structures and patterns.
1. Change of HSR accessibility: Studies showed that travel time was sharply
reduced and the convergence of time and space was enhanced after the opening of
HSRs. HSR accessibility differed, the spatial distribution of HSR accessibility was in
balance with the macroscale of the country and corridor. In the microscale of a small
area, the spatial distribution of HSR accessibility showed large disparities.
2. Spatial effects influenced by HSRs: (1) convergence effect of time and
space: the time-space distance reduces sharply after the opening of HSRs. The
convergence effect of time and space can save time for commodity exchange
and passenger flow. Moreover, the convergence effect promotes economic and
social connections in cities. Conversely, the benefit of different cities in the
network is uneven because of the imbalance in HSR network construction.

Study Area

7
 Fig. 1. (Color) Spatial distribution of HSR lines and cities

The Beijing–Shanghai, Beijing–Guangzhou, Harbin–Dalian, Hangzhou–Shenzhen, and

Zhengzhou–Xi’an, Shanghai–Kunming, Qingdao–Taiyuan, Shanghai–Chengdu,
Lanzhou–Urumqi HSRs are four lengthwise and four horizontal passenger-dedicated lines in
China, respectively

Selection of Accessibility Evaluation Model and Data

Sources
This study used the weighted average travel time and economic potential to measure the
accessibility changes in HSRs before and after opening. Specifically, this study used the coefficient
of variation to analyze distribution characteristics, differences, and equalization degree of the entire
HSR network from a macroscopic perspective. The study referenced the D-value hierarchy and Huff
model to calculate the dominant force of HSRs and the intensity index of service centres. Finally, the
evaluation system of accessibility was constructed in this study. The comprehensive strength of
accessibility of the nine HSR lines was computed, together with the comprehensive evaluation
method.

8
Evaluation Indexes of Accessibility Improvement

Weighted average travel time

This measure is intuitive, simple, and commonly used to represent the degree of accessibility
improvement along with cities. The weighted average travel time characterizes the physical
sense of accessibility, which refers to the time measured from the established node city to
other cities. The formula for the weighted average travel time is given as follows:

where Ai = weighted average travel time of node I in the HSR network; a higher Ai means lower urban
accessibility; n = total number of cities in the HSR network excluding I; and Tij = average travel time
when I reach j by some means of transportation. This study considers only the trains, including
standard trains, fast trains (K), express trains (T), power trains (D), intercity rails (C), and HSRs (G).
The speed of standard trains is under 160 km=h. The power trains (D), intercity rails (C), and HSRs
(G) are high-speed trains that travel above 200 km=h. HSRs (G) travel around 250 km=h and can
reach up to 300 km=h. Mj = weight of the urban economic activity of j.

Economic Potential
Economic potential constitutes the mutual separation conditions of urban accessibility, which is
estimated by the weighted average travel time. Economic potential characterizes the economic sense
of accessibility. Economic potential is explained as the total economic activity caused by the opening
of HSRs in a given area and specific time. Several major factors of regions and cities along the HSRs
are associated with the measure. The formula for economic potential is shown as follows:

where Pi = economic potential of node i; a higher Pi means higher urban accessibility; and Dij is equal
to Tij in Formula (1); it is also the average travel time when i reaches j by taking general speed trains
or HSRs. The calculation of Dij is as follows. All the possible times of i reaching j by taking
general-speed trains [including standard trains, fast trains (K), and express trains (T)] are initially
considered. Then, the average value, which is the travel time before the opening of the HSRs, is

calculated. Subsequently, all the possible times of i reaching j by taking HSRs [including power trains
(D), intercity rails (C), and HSRs (G)] are considered. Then, the average value, which is the travel time
after the opening of the HSRs, is calculated. The distance friction coefficient of a is set as 1.

9
 Evaluation model of spatial difference and the intensity of
accessibility of Service Centers
Variation coefficient

The variation coefficient is used to discuss whether the accessibility difference increased or
decreased as a result of the opening of HSRs. The variation coefficient is also called the “standard
rate” and includes the statistics of each observed value to describe the variation degree. The formula
for the variation coefficient is as follow:

where CV = comprehensive variation coefficient; a lower CV means a smaller relative accessibility

difference along with the HSR; CVAi and CVPi = variation coefficients of the weighted travel time and
economic potential, respectively. The algorithm of CVPi is the same as CVAi. Xi = index value of a city;
it is the weighted average where CV = comprehensive variation coefficient; a lower CV means a
smaller relative accessibility difference along the HSR; CVAi and CVPi = variation coefficients of the
weighted travel time and economic potential, respectively. The algorithm of CVPi is the same as CVAi.
Xi = index value of a city; it is the weighted average of travel time or the economic potential of node i.

D-Value and Daily Summation Frequency

The formulas for D-value and daily summation frequency are as follows:

where Cc and Cs = arrival and departure frequencies of the HSR for 1 day along with cities, respectively.
The arrival and departure frequencies can reflect the accessibility efficiency between the two HSR
cities; Ci = summation of arrival and departure frequencies of the HSR of node i for 1 day; and Di =
difference of the value of arrival and departure frequencies of the HSR of node i for 1 day. This can
express the dominant force of HSR flow. A larger difference between the arrival and departure
frequencies means a stronger dominant force.

Huff Model

10
Based on the original business circle theory, Huff (1963) divided a service area of more stores
combined with the Huff model. The present study uses the Huff model to calculate the probability that
residents use the HSR to each city along the line. If the Huff index is large, economic accessibility,
potential accessibility, and serviceability of cities rapidly improve. The ability to attract all flow types
will grow. Cities with a high Huff index will become the new HSR economic growth poles. The formula
for the Huff model is as follows:

where Gi refers to the probability that people use the HSR from cities along the line to node i before
and after the opening of the HSRs. This probability value is for a single city, not for a pair of origin
and destination cities. A higher value of Gi means a better HSR service capability for city i. The
molecules can express the overall connection strength when other cities reach i along the line before
and after the opening of the HSRs. The denominators can express the overall connection strength of
n cities along the HSR line. The values Si and Sj are urban scales; Xi and Xj denote the urban
populations of i and j, respectively; Yi and Yj denote the urban GDPs of i and j, respectively; Zi and Zj
are the administrative region acreages of i and j; and β = distance friction coefficient, Tij ditto.

Index of Service Center Intensity

The present study integrates the dominant force of HSR (Di), daily summation frequency of HSR (Ci),
and the probability of arriving in node i by taking the HSR (Gi). The formula for service centre
intensity is as follows:

where Qi = intensity index of HSR service centres; Di, Ci, and Gi ditto. A larger Qi value means a
stronger HSR service centre intensity.

11
Performance and efficiency of High-speed
Rail systems
The advent of High-speed rail networks started in Japan in 1964 and France in 1981, since the then
high-speed rail was developed in many countries. New techniques are developed to tackle the
increasing demand for fast travel and making railways competent with the other modes. The building
of high-speed rail systems requires substantial investment in infrastructure, railway stations and
rolling stock. Efficient use of these capital intensive assets is needed to justify the investments made.
Also, the identification of areas of improvement in production and marketing is important to optimize
operational performance and productivity.

In this section four Asian and four European high-speed rail systems are benchmarked
against their peers using the actual system characteristics and performance between 2007 and 2012
with Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) techniques. This study identifies the most efficient
high-speed rail systems and the contributing factors in achieving high performance in production and
marketing.

Methodology
Benchmarking methods and application to railways
Benchmarking is intended to compare products or services with the competition or with
organizations that are recognized as leaders in their sector to find best practices and ways to grow.
The main objective of benchmarking is to measure and compare the realized output of a product or
service with the number of inputs

12
The PPM analysis, where an output variable is viewed concerning a single input variable is a
practical, easy and fast way to of comparing performance. The main disadvantage is that only one
indicator at the time can be evaluated. A multi-PPM analysis, where more ratios are assessed at
the same time can easily lead to misinterpretation. All five benchmark methods can be recognized in
international (mostly European) railway efficiency and productivity studies.

DEA is however very suitable for the use in the rail sector, due to the highly regulated and
quasi-monopolistic industry structure An important advantage of DEA is that the results are based on
a relative comparison and that DEA can work with index numbers, ensuring that no sensitive
information is provided to others as often desired by companies.

DEA model
A railway system can be modelled as a Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (MIMO) system for efficiency,
productivity and costs analyses. A system approach with N inputs and M outputs is the basis for our
DEA study.

As DEA can be considered a “black box” approach, we introduce a two-stage Network DEA (NDEA)
model to evaluate the overall technical effectiveness, the technical efficiency of the production
process and service effectiveness of the consumption process simultaneously in a single model

Input and output variables

To provide high-speed train services in a country, two major physical assets are needed:

i) a high-speed rail network and

ii) a fleet of high-speed trains

We only consider the network and the rolling stock assets, being the two major production factors
for railway performance. Railway stations for access and egress of passengers are left out of the
equation as in most cases they are not a performance-limiting factor. Operational expenditures
and staff on board and at the railway stations are also included in production factors.

The total length of high-speed lines in the network and the number of available high-speed
trains and their seating capacity are key parameters for the high-speed rail system performance

The final output performance can be expressed in terms of travel volume and is defined as the
product of the yearly number of passengers and the average travel distance per passenger.

The high-speed rail MIMO system is detailed in figure 3 with two asset-related input parameters
(N=2) for the infrastructure and rolling stock and two output parameters (M=2) for the transport and
travel performance. The overall process is split into two subsequent stages to assess the efficiency

13
of the production and consumption process separately. These stages are linked by the fleet
performance being an output of the production process and an input for the consumption process.

For this NDEA analysis model, the output orientation is applied for the overall model and the
individual stages. Regarding stage 1, improving fleet performance has a preference for decreasing
the infrastructure or fleet capacity. In practice taking out of operation and disinvestments in
high-speed lines and rolling stock are very unusual to improve technical efficiency. For the
effectiveness (stage 2) it is easier on the short term to influence ridership and travel performance by
proper marketing and sales activities than to change the timetable.

Case study
To find best practices in production and marketing in the worlds’ largest high-speed rail systems,
eight networks are identified; four of which can be found in Asia (Japan, Taiwan, China, Korea) and
four in Europe (France, Germany, Spain, Italy).

System characteristics and performance data

Table 1 shows the descriptive statistics of the input and output variables used in the study with their
associated values from the data collected for the eight high-speed railway systems for 2007 till 2012

14
· Train densities on the European high-speed network (ratio of FPT and NL from table 1) are
about 10% higher than in Asia

· In Asia, the average number of seats per train (ratio AS/FS from table 1) is 620 compared to 436
for Europe.

Due to such high-capacity trains, Asia produces 170% more travel volume and 164%
more seat kilometers than Europe with only 86% more train kilometers.

· Large differences can also be seen regarding the average travel distance (ratio TV/RS from
table 1). In Asia, travellers take shorter trips (293 km) than in Europe (402 km).

· Seat occupancy (ratio of TV and FPS from table 1) is comparable for Europe (57%) and Asia
(59%).

Malmquist Productivity Index:

The results from the Malmquist Productivity Index are listed in Table 2 and its decomposition in
Efficiency Change and Technical Change Table 3 for the eight high-speed rail systems. When the
values of the Malmquist index and its components are more than 1 in an output-oriented
evaluation, they indicate progress.

· The MPI reflects a productivity improvement for the whole peer group of 12.5% over the five
years from 2007 till 2012

· . In contrast with Europe, where the MPI was stable and close to 1 from 2007 to 2012, Asia
achieved a productivity growth of 26.9% over the same period

15
 Europe didn't show any productivity improvement because, despite the 16.6%
technical change, efficiency dropped with 14.4%. In Asia, both technical efficiency
improvements (+17.9%) and technology change (+7.6%) contributed to the overall
productivity growth.

· Germany, Italy, Korea and Taiwan show an above-average MPI-value between 2007 and 2012.
The high productivity improvement in Taiwan is remarkable (+157%).

· Efficiency of the Spanish HSR-network dropped with 34.1% in five years, but this is partly
compensated with a technical improvement of 19.9%.

· China achieved to keep up efficiency but shows a decreasing technical change of 12.2%.

16
· In general, productivity improvement for the peer group comes from technical change, rather
than from efficiency change, which is declining year-on-year. Only Taiwan was able to maintain
efficiency in five successive years.

v In all years Italy appears to be the worst performer and Germany and Spain are in the middle of
the spectrum.

v Taiwan has improved its marketing efficiency compared to others. This is in line with the MPI
results shown earlier

v Although the efficiency of the production process varies over the years China was able to be fully
efficient in their marketing process. The results from the Malmquist index shows that technical
change has been lagging. This indicates that improvements could be achieved in optimizing the
technical production process

17
v . For Korea, the opposite is the case: an efficient production process, but variation in marketing
efficiency.

v . In Japan, we see a dip in 2008 and 2009 in their marketing performance. The last three years
they have an efficient production and are improving their marketing performance, but are
outperformed by Korea and Taiwan

v . Italy is performing a bit better in production, but this cannot compensate for its marketing
inefficiency.

v Spain and France show fluctuating results. Their marketing is better than their production
performance. France is improving and Spain is losing production efficiency over the last few
years.

High-Speed Railway and Regional Economic Growth

Methodology Used
The high-speed railway has reduced the travel time between cities, thus facilitating the trade
flows among cities, market expansion and knowledge spill over sharing. The demand for goods
and services in one city is the sum of purchasing power of its neighbouring cities. Therefore, BT
is defined as the space-time weighted purchasing power of neighbouring cities. It is known as
the market potential, which has been explained in the research background. BT of i city in the
year of t can be represented by the formula below:

BTi,j = n∑j=1 (GDPj,i/ Tij,t)

There into,

GDPj,i stands for the gross regional production of j city in the year of t.

Ti,j stands for the travel time between i city and j city in the year of t.

The paper used data from two years, one is the year of 2000, during which the high-speed
railway is not available; the other is the year of 2013, during which the high-speed railway is
available.

The basic model form is as follow:

There into,

Yi stands for the per capita gross regional production (RGDP) or population (POP) of i city1,

18
BTi stands for the market potential of i city,

∆2000-2013 stands for the logarithmic change of the variables between 2000 and 2013, that is, the
difference between the logarithm of 2013 and the logarithm of 2000

The right side of the equation only refers to the development of the railway between 2000 and
2013. While there are still many factors that affect economic growth. In order to accurately
measure the impact brought by high-speed railway, this paper adds control variables to control
other factors affecting the economic growth based on the basic model. With Xi,t to represent the
control variables, the extended model is as follow:

There into,

Yi and BTi are consistent with those in the basic model.

Xi stands for control variables, including the capital, labour, education, infrastructures, other transportation (trans)
and industrial structure (industry), etc.

∆2000-2013 also stand for the logarithmic change of the variables between 2000 and 2013

Capital and labour represent the basic factor inputs. the proportion of fixed asset investment in
gross regional production is regarded as the proxy variable of capital, and the proportion of
employees in the total population is regarded as the proxy variable of labour.

Considering that the freight capacity can better measure the economic development level
compared with the passenger capacity, the total freight capacity of highway, shipping, water
transport and railway is taken as the variable representing trans. the reduction of travel time in
2013 compared with that in 2000 is caused by the introduction of high-speed railways and the
speed-up of ordinary railways. Therefore, it is necessary to add the control variable that
represents ordinary railways. This paper selects the railway freight volume as the proxy variable
of the development of ordinary railways. Because high-speed railways in China are basically
passenger dedicated lines, and the special freight high-speed trains for freight transport have
been developed.

Data Sources
The data mainly come from the China City Statistical Yearbook and China Regional Economic
Statistical Yearbook published in 2001 and 2014. The data of permanent resident population
originate from 34 cities and the Statistical Bulletin on National Economic and Social
Development published in 2001 and 2013. The travel time, which is calculated based on train

19
schedules, originate from the Train Schedules in April 2000 and May 2013. Taking the year of
2000 as the base period, both the annual GDP and RGDP are adjusted by the GDP indicators.

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Analysis of Full Sample Regression Results
The coefficient of other control variables is also significant, and the sign is stable, showing that
the high-speed railway has not only failed to promote economic growth, but has exerted a
negative impact. According to the theoretical speculation that the development of high-speed
railways can promote economic growth, the BT effect should be positive. While based on the
regression equations.

BT coefficients are all negative, thus violating the expectations.

The negative BT effect may be caused by the following reasons:

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 1) High-speed railways only focus on passenger transport, thus ignoring the freight, which
is more important than the passenger transport in the economic development. In terms
of the impact on RGDP, the effect brought by high-speed railways is negative when
compared with the capital, labour, infrastructure and other transportation.

2) The impact of a single high-speed railway line is minimal on the social economy. it is
necessary to establish a balanced high-speed railway network to extend in all directions.
The expansion of the HSR should be in a balanced way and should consider all the
aspects of railway.

The input of capital and labour force has a positive influence on regional economic growth. The
development of other modes of transport, such as expressways and aviation, which are
manifested by the increase in freight volume, is conducive to reducing obstacles and promoting
the effective flow of resources, thus, to promote the economic growth. The coefficient of science
and education is negative, which is not in line with expectations, but one explanation for it is that
the investment of science and education represents government expenditure, and the increase
of government expenditure or excessive intervention in the market will lead to the Crowding out
effect.

C) Major Conclusions

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Fig. 2. (Color) Spatial variation analysis of weighted average travel time: (a) before; (b) after; (c) decreasing rate

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Spatial Differences of Accessibility and Selection of Service Centers

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Fig. 3. (Color) Spatial variation analysis of economic potential values: (a) before;
(b) after; (c) increasing rate

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The comprehensive accessibility strength of Beijing– Guangzhou and Beijing–Shanghai
HSRs is the strongest, followed by Shanghai–Kunming and Hangzhou–Shenzhen.
Meanwhile, the comprehensive accessibility strength of Shanghai–Chengdu, Harbin–Dalian,

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and Qingdao–Taiyuan is weak. The accessibility strength of Zhengzhou–Xi’an and
Lanzhou–Urumqi is the weakest. The accessibility strength changes in HSRs present obvious
zone regularity. The accessibility of HSRs in East-Central China is stronger than that of HSRs
in Northeast China. The accessibility in the Northeast is stronger than that in the West. The
degree of accessibility improvement in Beijing–Shanghai, Beijing– Guangzhou,
Harbin–Dalian, and Shanghai–Kunming is the largest, followed by Hangzhou–Shenzhen,
Shanghai–Chengdu, and Zhengzhou–Xi’an. The accessibility degree of improvement in
Lanzhou–Urumqi and Qingdao–Taiyuan is relatively weak.

Based on the time-accessibility perspective, areas of the most superior accessibility are
concentrated in Beijing––Shanghai, Beijing–Guangzhou, and Shanghai–Kunming, crossing
the area of the east-central triangle, followed by the area along with Harbin– Dalian. The
marginal areas are mainly concentrated in the north-west and southwest of China. The
improvement of the weighted average travel time of HSRs is highly correlated with the
regional population density, urban scale, and economic development level. Based on the
economic accessibility perspective, the spatial pattern of the economic potential has
transformed Beijing–Shanghai’s “corridor type” into the “asymmetric type,” which is gradually
weakening to the east and west sides. The improvement degrees of the four horizontal lines
are lower than those of the four lengthwise lines.
After the opening of the HSRs, variation coefficient increases occurred only in
Harbin–Dalian, Qingdao–Taiyuan, and Shanghai– Chengdu, whereas those of others tended
to decrease. The T-axial zone presents the spatial trend from being polarized to being
balanced under the effect of HSR networks. Compared with the four horizontal HSRs, the
frequent connections in north-south transport of the four lengthwise HSRs result in higher
dominance, which is significant. The HSR flow of Beijing–Shanghai and Beijing–Guangzhou
has the strongest dominant forces, whereas those of other HSRs are significantly weaker. The
spatial pattern of the HSR network is mainly a “core-core” spatial connection mode, which
connects the adjacent provincial capitals or dual-core cities of the same provinces. The spatial
pattern gradually transits to “core–network” spatial mode. Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, and
Shenzhen are the national service centres of HSR accessibility, whereas Tianjin, Wuhan,
Chongqing, Nanjing, Hangzhou, and Shenyang are the great regional service centres of HSR
accessibility. Chengdu, Harbin, Changsha, Jinan, and Zhengzhou are the regional service
centres and form multiple service centre patterns of HSR in China.
HSR has become another significant technology in the history of transportation. The rapid
development of HSR has brought about the “second revolution” in railway transportation
history. In the last decade, the large-scale construction of HSRs in China has attracted
worldwide attention. China has entered the golden period of HSR construction, and research
on HSRs will receive academic attention in the future. In terms of time, economy, frequency,
and other multidimensional perspectives, this study establishes an exploratory framework of
the comprehensive evaluation of HSR accessibility consisting of the dynamic changes of
accessibility improvement, spatial differences of accessibility, and selection of service centres.
Moreover, this study provides a new concept and frame support for the measurement of HSR
accessibility, which can be useful for domestic and foreign academic research. Combined with
the actual development of HSRs in China, the principles and methods of selecting HSR
service centres are presented in this study. Besides, references are provided for national and
international research. This study has analyzed the evolution of spatial patterns of HSR accessibility
before and after the opening of the HSRs. Spatial views of HSR accessibility in China are determined
based on the background of HSRs. By providing general spatial perceptions, this study expects to
benefit other scholars locally and internationally. Finally, the authors of this study hope that the world

27
 will further understand and pay attention to HSRs in China to enhance its influence and international
status.

By using the empirical method, this paper calculated the market potential improvement of the
railway travel time in 2000-2013 and added other control variables in the model to analyse the
influence of high-speed railway on regional economic growth. The construction of high-speed
railways in our country started in areas with a high level of economic development. At present,
the development of high-speed railways in the eastern, central and western regions is not
balanced. The development of high-speed rail in the major cities in the central and eastern parts
of China is relatively well developed.

The results show that high-speed rail has different effects on economic growth in different
regions and changes with the development of high-speed rail in the region. For areas that have
formed high-speed rail networks, high-speed rail has compressed the space-time distance and
promoted exchanges and cooperation among cities, which has had a positive effect. For areas
with a relatively backward development of high-speed railways, high-speed rail has exacerbated
its marginalization and has had a negative impact. On the whole, high-speed rail has a negative
effect on the overall economic growth.

The construction of transportation infrastructure is essentially the construction of a large

domestic market, which is the platform for the establishment of specialized labour division and
mass production and circulation. The role of high-speed rail to regional economic development
is not immediately obvious and has long-term effects. The short-term impact is indicative and
alarming, which will provide direction for the future development planning of HSR. The
development of China’s high-speed railway should focus on rational distribution, especially the
backward areas, making it an engine of backward economic development to coordinate and
improve the regional economic development pattern of our country rather than cause a wide
gap between the east and the west.

Case Study:
ü Between 2007 and 2012, Asia achieved a productivity growth of 26.9%. Europe didn't
show any productivity improvement because, despite the 16.6% technical change,
efficiency dropped with 14.4%. In Asia, both technical efficiency improvements
(+17.9%) and technology change (+7.6%) contributed to the overall productivity
growth.

ü Germany, Italy, Korea and Japan show an above-average MPI-value between 2007
and 2012.

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 ü The high productivity improvement in Taiwan is remarkable (+157%). Taiwan is the
only DMU that has achieved a productivity index above unity in every successive
year

ü Underperformers are the networks in Spain and China, but for different reasons. The
efficiency of the Spanish HSR-network dropped with 34.1% in five years, but this is
partly compensated with a technical improvement of 19.9%. China achieved to keep
up efficiency but shows a decreasing technical change of 12.2%

E) List of referred papers in the standard format

1) Chitresh Shrivastva and Mahmoud Ali

High-Speed Rail Corridor: The Indian Assessment

Journal of Management & Public Policy

Vol. 10, No. 2, June 2019, Pp. 21-32

ISSN 0976-0148 (Online) 0976-013X (Print)

DOI: 10.5958/0976-0148.2019.00002.7

2) Bo Jiang and Nanchek Chu

Comprehensive Evaluation of Accessibility in China’s High-Speed Rail Network Based on the Perspective of Time,
Economy, and Frequency
Published: 2017-09
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)UP.1943-5444.0000395

3.) Jack E. Doomernik.

Performance and efficiency of High-speed Rail systems.

Transportation Research Procedia

European Transport Conference 2014 – from Sept-29 to Oct-1, 2014

DOI: 10.1016/j.trpro.2015.06.049

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/282500638_Performance_and_Efficiency_of_High-speed_Rail_Systems

29
4.) Shi, Q.Y.

High-Speed Railway and Regional Economic Growth: An Empirical Study Based on Market Potential.

American Journal of Industrial and Business Management, 8, 83-102.

https://doi.org/10.4236/ajibm.2018.81006

F) Future scope of the chosen topic

Having discussed the various dimensions of costs involved in the construction, and the social
and environmental costs that complement with the tangible costs that accompany the project,
yet it is to be noted that the Indian government has been making sincere efforts in reinventing
Indian Railway network through an increase in train speeds as was earlier declared by the
Railway Ministry in the year 2016, facilitating a reduction in the travel time through
High-Speed Rail Corridors and also helping the government cut its expenses on fossil fuels
such as diesel, which will also enable greener solution through expansive use of electricity,
which would help in improving the acceleration and deceleration of the trains and also be a
competitive mode of railway transport, competing against the alternative modes such as air
and road, which have been giving stiff competition. The High- Speed Rail Corridor is
anticipated to help railways gain the lost ground and also generate revenue for the financially
deprived organisation and also help improve the passenger traffic. What has been seen in
common is that the external actors have been actively involved in the revival of rail
transportation taking into consideration the state of affairs of developing countries like India.
The participation of countries like Spain, Germany, France, Switzerland, the US has been
over 70 years old. The train diplomacy has been a growing trend with the coming of the NDA
government, which is evident by the fact that 100% FDI has been cleared by the cabinet.

High-Speed Railway though is not impossible a dream, but, it is at this juncture a far –
fetched idea by the current government. The International Union of Railways defines Superfast
trains as trains capable of running at the speed of 160 kmph, which currently the speed of
Gatimaan Express, while a major chunk of Indian trains struggles between 110-150kmph given
the length of our trains, which is 24 coaches for a passenger train compared to the maximum
length of High – Speed Trains to be 10 coaches, which apart from multi gauges and speed
restriction along different sections of Indian Railways. While High – Speed trains operate over
220 kmph (136 mph). It should also be added that we are yet to gain self- sufficiency in
production of ALSTOM Coaches introduced way back in 2003, owing to high production costs.

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Having spoken on the technical feasibility, another domain of contradiction that lies between
Indian Railways and Japanese Railways is the nature of top management.

While Japan Railways is divided into seven zones and is a private entity, Indian
Railways, on the other hand, is a government entity operating at the central and zonal level
with seventeen zones under the vigilance of the ministry. The railways incur humongous
variable costs owing to the maintenance of overaged tracks, fuel procurement, water and
electricity consumption to name a few. It has been estimated that the railways would need 17
trillion dollars to overhaul its entire network by 2020

This partnership though brings ample opportunities for innovation of railway

technology, at the same time it has led to compromise on crucial rail lines and projects, such
as the Dedicated Freight Corridor which awaits completion 9 years after the work first
commenced. Indian Railways employs 1.7 million people and is the ninth-largest utility
employer in the world. It takes 12 years in the Indian scenario to become a full-fledged driver
in the Indian Railways. Post the 2011 Kalka Mail disaster, it was pointed out that close to one
lakh safety-related posts of Signalman, Pointsman, Gangman, Train Engineers remain
vacant.

In the light of such instances, the prospects of having a bullet train are remote for the
fact, at a time when we are unable to modernize our current training facilities, the setting up of
a training school and a longer duration of the training would invite further delays to the
project.
Indian Railways has been in desperate need of rolling stock rehabilitation, new
locomotives, immediate maintenance of tracks and bridges, which has been a warning sign
for the railways right from the 2002 Rafiganj Train Disaster to 2016 Pukhrayan Train Disaster.
A brief overview of railway safety post-Fatehpur Train Disaster of 2011, the rising trend in
train accidents due to failure of rolling stock, locomotives and tracks is strong evidence to
growing negligence of the railways towards the existing infrastructure and excessive
emphasis on the increment in the rail traffic, which has led to lesser maintenance time and
increased stress on the tracks. The lack of maintenance time was very much evident in the
Khatauli Train accident. A more detailed look at the inhibiting factors barring ageing assets is
imperative.

Currently, Indian Railways is producing only 4000 coaches on an average. After a spate
of train accidents, the ministry has decided to completely phase out ICF coaches by 2017 and
completely switch over to LHB coaches. In the year 2000, the Khanna Committee
recommended a non- lapsable railway safety fund of Rs.17000 crore (Approx. $2,324,835,000)
was created, of which 12000 crores (Approx. $ 1,641,060,000) was contributed by the Union
Government and 5000 crores (Approx. $ 683,775,000) was mobilized via safety surcharge.

At the moment, the railway seems to be amid excessive dependence on external actors,
without due regard for institutions such as RDSO, further adding to the burdens of the railway
and communication gap between opinions and decisions deteriorating the plight of the railways.

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A closer look at the two reports of the Khakodkar and Pitroda Committee displays the lack of
comprehensiveness in the estimates being drawn up. Khakodkar Committee in its list of
recommendations does not mention about Human Resources, Organization, Stations of the
Dedicated Freight Corridors, while the Pitroda Committee has drawn up an estimate of 1.27
crores (Approx.1.27 billion) for the rehabilitation of the stations and 2.4 lakh crores (Approx. $
32,808,000) for Dedicated Freight Corridors. Two sectors: Tracks and Bridges and Signalling
systems have seen an increase in the investment from Khakodkar to Pitroda committee,
which highlights the growing depreciation of assets and the increase in costs for rehabilitation
of the fast dwindling assets. The entry of GE, Alstom, Bombardier MNCs who have long been
a contributor to the development of the railways, have revived ties with the railways by
entering into the field, augmenting the locomotive production and also contributing to the
rehabilitation of essential railway assets such as Rolling Stock and Locomotives.

The much-needed track renewal is growing at a sluggish pace. Suresh Prabhu’s budget
has had a short-sighted target with just 2,668 km per year (1657 miles). This was again
increased to 3,600 kms (2236 miles) after the merger of the budget. There need to be farsighted
and sustaining targets for the development of railways. Besides, India should also use this
opportunity to understand the best available practices in the field of track laying and also
improve the strength of the workforce to overcome the staff shortage in crucial departments
such as safety if at all India is to progress in the field of Railways.
Lastly, the exclusion of conventional lines is by no means a solution to achieving the
High-Speed Dream. Rather, Chinese railways should serve as a learning experience for the
India Railways of striking a balance between the conventional and future High-Speed Railway
systems.

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