Department of Information Technology
IOE Mini Project Poster Academic Year 2021-22
ITA08 - Rainfall Prediction System
Shravani Kadam, Bhishmesh Chaudhari, Dhanesh Salgaonkar. Guide – Prof. Santosh Tamboli
1. Abstract
In modern times, global warming is affecting the entire
world, having a major impact on humankind and
accelerating climate change. As a result, the atmosphere
and ocean are warming, sea levels are rising, and floods
and droughts are occurring. One of the major
consequences of this is uneven rainfall / precipitation.
Precipitation forecasting now-a-days is a tedious task that
is being considered by most of the major world authorities.
Precipitation is a climatic factor that affects the various
human activities on which they depend. Like Agricultural
production, construction, energy production and tourism.
This makes rainfall a serious problem and requires better
rainfall forecasts. For these various reasons, accurate
forecasting of rainfall is paramount. There are many ways
to predict it, but the one that is chosen for this project is to
observe and collect previous year's rainfall data which is
collected over 10 years of rainfall measurements. Next, we
forecast rainfall for the next day. Therefore, this project
seeks to optimize results and find suitable machine
learning models for predicting rainfall. We will also
compare the machine learning algorithms and methods
used in machine learning. Methodologies include logistic
regression, support vector classification, random forest,
catboost, and xgboost. Compare each of these algorithms
individually, taking into account the parameters that apply
to machine learning, such as accuracy.
2. Introduction/Theory
Rainfall forecasting is one of the challenging and uncertain
tasks that has a major impact on human society. Timely
and accurate forecasts help you proactively reduce human
and financial losses. This is the cause of natural disasters
such as floods and droughts that people all around the
world face each year. As global warming progresses,
rainfall detection and prediction has become a major issue
in countries where appropriate technology is not available,
and if done correctly, it can serve a variety of purposes
such as agriculture, health and drinking. The accuracy of
precipitation forecasts is very important where the
economy is heavily dependent on agriculture. Due to the
dynamic nature of the atmosphere, statistical methods do
not provide excellent accuracy in predicting precipitation.
The non-linearity of precipitation data makes machine
learning and AI better techniques. Predictions help people
take precautions, and predictions must be accurate. The
purpose of this project is to provide non-experts with easy
access to the techniques and approaches used in the field
of precipitation prediction, to provide comparative studies
between various machine learning techniques, and to
provide early precipitation prediction and to identify the
best machine learning algorithm for you. The objective of
this system is to understand & analyze the data collected
for rainfall for all the states and derive conclusive
information & statistics regarding the rainfall pattern
across the country as well as to design an interactive and
user-friendly web interface for the system for user’s ease
of understanding the results obtained from the input data
provided.
3. Problem Statement
Rainfall forecasting is very important because heavy and
irregular rainfall can have many impacts like destruction
of crops and farms, damage of property so a better
forecasting model is essential for an early warning that
can minimize risks to life and property and also
managing the agricultural farms in better way.
Moreover, one of the major focuses of climate change
study is to understand whether is there any extreme
changes in the occurrence and frequency of heavy
rainfall events. Rainfall prediction is a challenging task
and the results should be accurate. There are many
hardware devices for predicting rainfall by using the
weather conditions like temperature, humidity, pressure.
These traditional methods cannot work in an efficient
way so by using machine learning techniques we can
produce accurate results. We can just do it by having the
historical data analysis of rainfall and can predict the
rainfall for future seasons. We can apply many
techniques like classification, regression according to
the requirements and also, we can calculate the error
between the actual and prediction and also the accuracy.
Different techniques produce different accuracies so it is
important to choose the right algorithm and model it
according to the requirements. Accurate ML forecasting
model could give early alerts of severe weather to help
prevent natural disasters and destruction. Hence, there is
needs to develop ML algorithms capable in predicting
rainfall with acceptable level of precision.
4. Implementation
Proposed System Architecture
5. Results
Landing page of the Website
Predictor Page
Rainy Day Page
6. Conclusion
We explored and applied several preprocessing steps
and implemented various machine learning
algorithms. Further we carried out a comparative
study to understand the overall performance of the
algorithms and select the most accurate and effective
algorithm to implement. Out of the seven algorithms
implemented, Catboost classifier proved to be the
most efficient ml model with an accuracy of 91.12%
and AuC score of 0.89. We have also developed an
user-friendly front end system to accept different
input parameters to observe how the input data
affects the model prediction and how accurately it
will predict the rainfall for the next day. A well-
developed front end and interactive dashboard
provides easy and better understanding of the data
and the built system. We concluded that Australia's
rainfall pattern is irregular and uncertain. Using
Feature extraction and data visualization through
PowerBI dashboard we were able to recognize and
figure out relationship among the data and identify
the factors which have significant effect on the
rainfall received in the Australian Regions.
References
[1] Kala, A., & Vaidyanathan, S. G. (2018, July).
Prediction of rainfall using artificial neural network.
2018 International Conference on Inventive Research
in Computing Applications (ICIRCA).
[2] Grace, R. K., & Suganya, B. (2020, March).
Machine Learning based Rainfall Prediction. 2020
6th International Conference on Advanced
Computing and Communication Systems (ICACCS).
[3] Ahmed, H. A. Y., & Mohamed, S. W. A. (2021,
February 26). Rainfall Prediction using Multiple
Linear Regressions Model. 2020 International
Conference on Computer, Control, Electrical, and
Electronics Engineering (ICCCEEE).
[4] Basha, C. Z., Bhavana, N., Bhavya, P., & V, S.
(2020, July). Rainfall Prediction using Machine
Learning & Deep Learning Techniques. 2020
International Conference on Electronics and
Sustainable Communication Systems (ICESC).
[5] Vasantha, B., Tamilkodi, R., & kiran, L. V. (2019,
March). Rainfall pattern prediction using real time
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2019 International Conference on Vision Towards
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(ViTECoN).
[6] Samad, A., Bhagyanidhi, Gautam, V., Jain, P.,
Sangeeta, & Sarkar, K. (2020, October 30). An
approach for rainfall prediction using long short term
memory neural network. 2020 IEEE 5th International
Conference on Computing Communication and
Automation (ICCCA).
[7] Oswal, N. (2021). Predicting Rainfall using
Machine Learning Techniques. Institute of Electrical
and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).