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Growth concerns: On economic forecasts amid Omicron surge

NSO forecast has not factored in the impact of the ongoing Omicron-induced surge in cases

The National Statistical Office’s first advance estimate for economic output in the current financial
year is an optimistic forecast that flags some positive trends as well as areas of concern that have the
potential to derail the growth momentum. The NSO has projected real GDP for the 12 months ending
March 2022 at ₹147.54 lakh-crore, a 9.2% expansion from the provisional estimate of ₹135.13 lakh-
crore for the last fiscal year, when the full fury of the COVID-19 pandemic had caused output to
contract by 7.3%. At that pace, India’s economy would regain its pre-eminence as the world’s fastest
growing major economy. A key pillar of this growth assumption is the upbeat outlook for net tax
receipts on products, which the NSO sees expanding by a robust 16.2%, after shrinking by 18.4% in
the preceding period. Gross Value Added, which aggregates output in the various sectors of the
economy, is projected to grow by 8.6% year-on-year on the back of a continued healthy showing by
the farm sector and a heartening double digit (12.5%) rebound in manufacturing. However, when
compared with the pre-pandemic FY2020’s GVA, the projected output of ₹135.2 lakh-crore is barely
₹2.5 lakh-crore, or 1.9%, higher, clearly pointing to the fact that the economy has a fair distance to
travel before it can regain the growth momentum that is crucially required to create more jobs and
help narrow the widening income inequality.

Tellingly, the NSO’s forecast, which relies on varied data spanning the first six to eight months of the
current fiscal, has not factored in the impact of the ongoing Omicron-induced surge in COVID-19
cases. After all, it is anyone’s guess as to how much of a blow the current wave may deal to already
fragile supply chains, consumption demand and contact-intensive services. In fact, private final
consumption expenditure, which two years ago accounted for close to 60% of GDP, is still struggling
to recover from the crushing compression it suffered in the first full year of the pandemic, when it
shrank 9.1%. While the NSO posits consumer spending to grow by 6.9% this fiscal, the assumed figure
is still a sizeable 2.9% shy of the FY2020 level. Equally significantly, the omnibus services category
that spans trade, hotels, transport, communication and broadcasting and makes up a fifth of the GVA
is estimated to post a mere 11.9% expansion after shrinking by 18.2% last fiscal. As a result, even
without factoring in the impact of a third wave, this vital services sector would still be lagging behind
its pre-pandemic output by 8.5%. With the Union Budget barely a few weeks away, policymakers have
a clear choice to make: introduce consumption and investment supportive measures, even if it means
loosening the fiscal purse strings, or risk seeing the growth momentum faltering for want of a fair
wind. [Practice Exercise]

 Red/blue coloring of words in the sentence indicates subject verb relationship; where ‘Red’
color denotes ‘subject’ and ‘blue’ color denotes ‘verb’.
 Reading based Question will be appended from tomorrow onward.

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Vocabulary
1. Concern (noun) – A cause of anxiety or 13. Project (verb) – Estimated or forecast on
worry. the basis of current trends or data.

2. Forecast (noun) – prediction, prophecy,

calculation.
3. Amid (preposition) – in the middle of,
amongst, during
4. Surge (noun) – sudden increase, rise,
growth, upsurge, escalation, boost
अ
5. Factor in (phrasal verb) – (factor in
something) Include a particular fact or
circumstance in one's considerations or
calculations; take something into account.
14. Real GDP (noun) – Real GDP is nominal
GDP adjusted for inflation. Real GDP is
used to measure the actual growth of
production without any distorting effects
from inflation.
15. Nominal GDP (noun) – Nominal GDP is the
total value of all goods and services
produced in a given time period, usually
quarterly or annually.
16. Fury (noun) – rage, anger, severity,
outrage ,
17. Contract (verb) – decrease, decline, reduce

6. Ongoing (adjective) –Continuing

18. Pace (noun) – speed, momentum.
7. Omicron-induced (adjective) – caused or
produced by Omicron.
19. Regain (verb) – recover, get back
8. Optimistic (adjective) – encouraging,
promising, hopeful
20. Pre-Eminence (noun) – superiority,
9. Flag (verb) – indicate, identify, pick out, supremacy, greatness, excellence
point out
21. Key (adjective) – crucial, central, essential,
10. Potential (adjective) – possibilities, chief, major
prospects.
22. Pillar (noun) – stalwart, mainstay,
11. Derail (verb) – obstruct, impede, interfere strength, tower of strength
with, hinder, hold up
23. Assumption (noun) – supposition,
12. Momentum (noun) – strength, pace, presumption, premise, अ
impetus

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24. Upbeat (adjective) – Cheerful; optimistic,
confident ,
25. Outlook (noun) – prospect, expectations,
expectancy, chances
26. Expand (verb) – grow, become larger,
increase in scope
27. Robust (adjective) – strong, vigorous,
tough, powerful
28. Shrink (verb) – contract, lessen, reduce
29. Preceding (adjective) – previous, prior
30. Gross value added (GVA) (noun) – gross
value added is the measure of the value of
goods and services produced in an area,
industry or sector of an economy.
31. Aggregate (verb) – combine, put, unite,
merge
32. On the back of (phrase) – because of, as a
result of.
33. Healthy (adjective) – Of a satisfactory size
or amount.
34. Showing (noun) – performance, track
record, results.
35. Heartening (adjective) – encouraging,
promising
36. Rebound (noun) – recovery.
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37. Barely (adverb) – hardly, scarcely, just
38. Point to (phrasal verb) – indicate, suggest,
be evidence of
39. Crucially (adverb) – With decisive or vital
importance.
40. Narrow (verb) – Become or make more
limited in extent or scope.
41. Widening (adjective) – Increasing, rising.
,
42. Income inequality (noun) – disparity in the
distribution of income between
individuals, groups, populations, social
classes, or countries.
43. Tellingly (adverb) – significantly
44. Rely (on) (verb) – depend on.
45. Fiscal (noun) – Financial year.
46. Varied (adjective) – diverse, assorted,
diversified, differing
47. Span (verb) – Extend across (a period of
time or a range of subjects)
48. Fiscal (noun) – Financial year.
49. Anyone’s guess (phrase) – Very difficult or
impossible to determine or predict.
50. Blow a/the deal (phrase) – To ruin or spoil
something. ,
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51. Fragile (adjective) – weak, insecure 62. Make up (phrasal verb) – (of parts)
compose or constitute a whole.
52. Contact-intensive services (noun) – It
include tourism, transportation,
entertainment, hospitality etc.
63. Mere (adjective) – Only, just.
53. Account for (phrasal verb) – constitute,
64. Vital (adjective) – essential, indispensable,
comprise, form, represent
crucial, key, necessary ,
54. Close to (phrase) – Nearly.
65. Lag behind (phrase) – to move more slowly
55. Crushing (adjective) – disconcerting, than someone or something else.
disappointing

56. Compression (noun) – reduction, 66. Policymaker (noun) – A person responsible

contraction
57. Posit (verb) – predicate, put forward
अ
58. Sizeable (adjective) –fairly large,
substantial, considerable
59. Shy of (adjective) – less than
60. Significantly (adverb) – importantly
for or involved in formulating policies,
especially in politics.
67. Loosen the purse string (phrase) –
Increase the amount of money available to
be spent.
, 68. Falter (verb) – Lose strength or
momentum.
69. For want of (phrase) – Because of a lack of
(something) ( )

70. Fair Wind (noun) – A favourable /good

61. Omnibus (adjective) – including or
situation or condition.
considering all elements or aspects.

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Practice Exercise
Direction (Q1 – Q3): Select the best express synonym of the give word [Editorial Page]
1. Derail
A. Expedient
B. Renounce
C. Obstruct
D. Impervious
2. Fury
A. Abhor
B. Rage
C. Imminent
D. Acrid
3. Contract
A. Farcical
B. Pacify
C. Decrease
D. Affluent
4. What is the antonym of ‘Upbeat’?
A. Categorical
B. Discouraging
C. Charisma
D. Arbitrary
5. Idiom and phrase: On the back of
A. Become or make more limited in extent or scope
B. With decisive or vital importance
C. As a result of
D. Very difficult or impossible to determine or predict.
6. Para jumbled based on Editorial: On the boil [Answers]
P. Nursultan Nazarbayev, the country’s powerful leader, stepped down as President in 2019,
but retained an outsize influence over the government of his cherry-picked successor, Kassym-
Jomart Tokayev.
Q. The capital city was named after Mr. Nazarbayev as Nur-Sultan and his statues erected
across the country.
R. The protests that broke out in Kazakhstan on January 2 over a fuel price hike have
snowballed into the biggest political crisis the oil-rich Central Asian country’s leadership has
faced in over three decades.
S. Kazakhstan, which broke away from the Soviet Union to become an independent republic in
1991, has been tightly ruled by “strong men” ever since.
A. PQSR B. RSPQ C. SRPQ D. QSRP

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Cloze test based on Editorial: A serious lapse [Answers]

The lapse in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s security arrangements, which left his convoy
……………..7……………on a flyover for around 20 minutes, near Ferozepur in Punjab on Wednesday is
indeed a serious one as stated by the Union Home Ministry. But by quickly blaming the Punjab
government and the State police, the Central functionaries ……………8…………..a blame game that has
……………9……………the possibility of a fair and credible inquiry into the incident. Two parallel inquiries
have been announced, one by the Centre and another by the State, both of which are on hold until
Monday when the Supreme Court of India will hear a plea on the issue. Discussions on national
security are always …………..10……………in India but at least this one involving the personal security of
the Prime Minister should have been more tempered.

7. A. decadent B. inordinate
C. stranded D. benevolent

8. A. belabored B. triggered
C. espoused D. fettered

9. A. abhorred B. forestalled
C. conjured D. assuaged

10. A. surcharged B. bemused

C. impotent D. abortive

Direction (Q11 – Q15):- Find out the error, if any

11. Never despise anyone at all (A)/ for contempt implies (B)/ a triumph over and pleasure in (C)/
the ills of others. (D)/ No Error.(E)
12. Whatever one may say (A)/ of him, (B)/ no one dare call in question (C)/ his honesty of
purpose.(D)/ No Error.(E)
13. The police asked (A)/ each of us about (B)/ his movements (C)/ on the night of the crime. (D)/
No Error.(E)
14. Never before have (A)/ the achievement of technology so conspicuous (B)/ as today when man
(C)/ has set his foot on the moon. (D)/ No Error.(E)
15. In a fit of temper (A)/ he tore up a sweet letter (B)/ which his wife had (C)/ written to him. (D)/
No Error.(E)

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Answer
1. C 2.B 3.C 4.B 5.C 6.B 7.C 8.B 9.B 10.A 11.E 12.C 13.E 14.B
15. B [Practice Exercise] [Cloze test]
Explanations
6. The protests that broke out in Kazakhstan on January 2 over a fuel price hike have snowballed
into the biggest political crisis the oil-rich Central Asian country’s leadership has faced in over
three decades. Kazakhstan, which broke away from the Soviet Union to become an
independent republic in 1991, has been tightly ruled by “strong men” ever since. Nursultan
Nazarbayev, the country’s powerful leader, stepped down as President in 2019, but retained
an outsize influence over the government of his cherry-picked successor, Kassym-Jomart
Tokayev. The capital city was named after Mr. Nazarbayev as Nur-Sultan and his statues
erected across the country.
7. Stranded (adjective) – helpless, without assistance, without help, in difficulties असहाय
8. Trigger (verb) – start, prompt, provoke, initiate, activate शरु
ु करना
9. Forestall (verb) – Keep from happening, prevent, stave off रोकना
10. Surcharged (adjective) – inflated, exaggerated, amplified, increased बढाकर कहा हुआ
11. (E) No Error
12. (C) 'dare call' के फदऱे 'dares to call' का प्रयोग होगा।
NOTE: - इस वाक्य के Part (C) मे 'dare' का प्रयोग मुख्य Verb के रूऩ में हुआ है । अतः Singular
Subject 'no one’ के लऱए 'dares' का प्रयोग होगा तथा इसके फाद Infinitive (to + V1) का प्रयोग
होगा। हाॉ, जफ 'dare' या need का प्रयोग Modal Auxiliary के रूऩ में हो तो इसके साथ '-s'
जोड़कर Singular नह ॊ फनाया जाता है । फपर इसके फाद सीधा Infinitive without 'to' (अथाात ् लसपा
V1) का प्रयोग होता है ।
दे खे - Dare and need can be constructed (A) as modal auxilaries (with bare infinitive and
without the inflected forms dares/needs, dared/needed) or (B) as main verbs (with to-
infinitive, -s inflection and past froms)
13. (E) No Error
14. (B) ‘technology' के फाद ‘been' का प्रयोग होगा क्योंफक construction Present Perfect Tense
Passive Voice का है I
15. (B) ‘a' के फदऱे 'the' का प्रयोग होगा क्योंफक 'sweet letter यहाॉ definite है I
जैसे - (i) I have read the book which he gave me.(वह फकताफ जो उसने द ।)

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Explanation of other important word

Sr.NO Words Meanings
Q1 Expedient adjective Providing an immediate advantage; serving , ,
one’s immediate self-interest; practical.
Renounce verb To formally give up or resign; to disown; to have ,
nothing to do with anymore.
Impervious adjective Not allowing anything to pass अ ,अ
Q2 Abhor verb To hate very, very much; to detest
Imminent adjective Just about to happen
Acrid adjective Harsh like acid , ,
Q3 Farcical adjective Absurd, ludicrous ,
Pacify verb To calm someone down; to placate
Affluent adjective Rich; Prosperous ,
Q4 Categorical adjective Unconditional; absolute , ,

Charisma noun A magical seeming ability to attract followers or

inspire loyalty
Arbitrary adjective Random; Capricious

Decaying or declared, especially in terms of अ ,

Q7 Decadent adjective
morals
Inordinate adjective Excessive; unreasonable अ
Benevolent adjective Generous; kind; doing good deeds
,
Q8 Belabor verb To go over repeatedly or to an absurd extent

,
Espouse verb To support; to advocate

Fetter verb To restrain; to hamper ,

Q9 Abhor verb To hate very, very much; to detest
,
Conjure verb To summon or bring into being as if by magic

To soothe; to pacify; to ease the pain of; to

Assuage verb
relieve
Q10 Bemused adjective Confused, Bewildered झ
Powerless; helpless; unable to perform sexual
Impotent adjective ,
intercourse.
Abortive adjective Unsuccessful

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