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ORIGINAL ARTICLE

E n d o c r i n e C a r e

Comparative Effectiveness of Therapies for Graves’


Hyperthyroidism: A Systematic Review and Network
Meta-Analysis

Vishnu Sundaresh,* Juan P. Brito,* Zhen Wang, Larry J. Prokop, Marius N. Stan,
Mohammad H. Murad, and Rebecca S. Bahn
Divisions of Geriatrics and Primary Care Internal Medicine (V.S.); Endocrinology, Diabetes, Metabolism,

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and Nutrition (J.P.B., M.N.S., R.S.B.); Preventive Medicine (Z.W., M.H.M.); and Library Public Services
(L.J.P.), Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota 55905

Context: Several treatment options are available for Graves’ disease (GD), including antithyroid
drugs (ATDs), radioactive iodine (RAI), and thyroidectomy.

Objective: The primary outcome was to determine the relapse rates of various treatment options.
The secondary outcome was to present data regarding adverse effects of ATDs.

Data Sources: We searched multiple databases through March 2012.

Study Selection: Eligible studies were randomized clinical trials and comparative cohort studies in
adults that included 2 or more treatment options for GD.

Data Extraction: Two reviewers independently selected studies, appraised study quality, extracted
outcome data, and determined adverse effect profiles.

Data Synthesis: We found 8 studies with 1402 patients from 5 continents. Mean follow-up duration
in months was: ATDs, 57; RAI, 64; and surgery, 59. Studies were at moderate to high risk of bias. Network
meta-analysis suggested higher relapse rates with ATDs (52.7%; 352 of 667) than RAI (15%, 46 of 304)
(odds ratio ⫽ 6.25; 95% confidence interval, 2.40 –16.67) and with ATDs than surgery (10%; 39 of 387)
(odds ratio ⫽ 9.09; 95% confidence interval, 4.65–19.23). There was no significant difference in relapse
between RAI and surgery. Examination of 31 cohort studies identified adverse effects of ATDs in 692
of 5136 (13%) patients. These were more common with methimazole, mainly owing to dermatological
complications, whereas hepatic effects were more common with propylthiouracil use.

Conclusion: We confirm the relatively high relapse rate of ATD therapy in comparison with RAI or
surgery, along with a significant side effect profile for these drugs. These data can inform discussion
between physicians and patients regarding the choice of therapy for GD. The limited quality of the
evidence in the literature underlines the need for future randomized clinical trials in this area.
(J Clin Endocrinol Metab 98: 3671–3677, 2013)

raves’ disease (GD) is an autoimmune condition de- hypertension, angina pectoris, and stroke) (5) and skeletal
G fined by overproduction of thyroid hormones due to
unregulated stimulation of the thyroid by circulating TSH
(osteoporosis)complications.Therefore,timelymanagementof
overthyperthyroidismisofutmostimportance.Inaddition,GD
receptor antibodies (1, 2). It is the most common form of has a negative long-term influence on the quality of life, due to
hyperthyroidism in the United States (3), and if left untreated either the disease process itself or its treatment (4).
results in increased morbidity and mortality (4) mainly due to Treatment options for GD are aimed at inducing per-
cardiovascular (atrial fibrillation, heart failure, pulmonary manent hypothyroidism (radioactive iodine [RAI] therapy

ISSN Print 0021-972X ISSN Online 1945-7197 * V.S. and J.P.B. have contributed equally to the manuscript.
Printed in U.S.A. Abbreviations: ATD, antithyroid drug; CBZ, carbimazole; CI, confidence interval; GD,
Copyright © 2013 by The Endocrine Society Graves’ disease; MMI, methimazole; OR, odds ratio; PTU, propylthiouracil; RAI, radioactive
Received April 12, 2013. Accepted June 25, 2013. iodine; RCT, randomized clinical trial.
First Published Online July 3, 2013

doi: 10.1210/jc.2013-1954 J Clin Endocrinol Metab, September 2013, 98(9):3671–3677 jcem.endojournals.org 3671
3672 Sundaresh et al Effectiveness of Graves’ Disease Therapies J Clin Endocrinol Metab, September 2013, 98(9):3671–3677

and thyroidectomy) followed by thyroid hormone re- Study selection


placement or restoring euthyroidism while awaiting res- Two reviewers (J.P.B., V.S.) working independently screened
olution of the autoimmune process and disease remission titles and abstracts. Full-text articles obtained from initial screen-
ing were retrieved for second-stage screening. Chance-adjusted
(antithyroid drugs [ATDs]—methimazole [MMI], propy-
inter-reviewer agreement was substantial (␬ statistic ⫽ 0.9), and
lthiouracil [PTU], carbimazole [CBZ]). Beta blockers are discrepancies were resolved through discussion with R.S.B. and
used in combination with any of the above therapies to M.N.S.
ameliorate the symptoms of hyperthyroidism. Selection of
therapy is challenging for both patient and physician be- Data extraction
cause each of the 3 modalities has been established as an The main outcome of interest was relapse of GD, which was
effective treatment strategy with unique individual fea- defined as the recurrence of hyperthyroidism after at least 12
months of treatment with ATDs, one dose of RAI, or first thy-
tures. The recently published guidelines for the manage- roidectomy. Disease recurrence was chosen as the main outcome
ment of hyperthyroidism stress the importance of active because its avoidance would represent to the physician effective

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discussion between patient and physician regarding the therapy and “cured” disease. The two reviewers (J.P.B., V.S.)
risks, benefits, and logistics of the various treatment op- independently reviewed each eligible study (each study included
tions, taking into consideration the values and preferences in the analysis was reviewed in duplicate). A pilot-tested form
was used to extract the following information: demographic in-
of the patient (6). A better understanding of the favorable formation, goiter size, type of treatment, treatment duration for
and unfavorable characteristics of each option will facil- ATD, follow-up duration, type of surgery (total, subtotal, or
itate this discussion and lead to high-quality shared deci- near-total thyroidectomy), number and dose of RAI treatment,
sion-making. We therefore performed the first systematic and number of patients with relapse. In addition, we reviewed all
review and network analysis of randomized and observa- cohort studies of ATD therapy identified in our initial search of
the literature to identify those listing adverse effects.
tional studies to summarize the available evidence in
adults with GD undergoing treatment and to determine Quality assessment
the quality of evidence available in the literature support- Two reviewers (J.P.B., V.S.) working in duplicate assessed the
ing the efficacy of the available therapies. In addition, we methodological quality of studies selected for the meta-analyses.
report the adverse effect profile of ATDs extracted from The Newcastle-Ottawa scale (8) was used for observational stud-
cohort studies evaluating the use of ATDs alone. ies, and elements from the Cochrane risk of bias tool (9), includ-
ing allocation concealment, blinding, and loss of follow-up, were
utilized for RCTs.

Materials and Methods Data synthesis


Random effects meta-analysis models were constructed to
This systematic review complies with the PRISMA (Preferred
pool odds ratios (ORs) from direct comparisons using the
Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses)
method of DerSimonian and Laird (10), with the estimate of
statement (7).
heterogeneity being taken from the Mantel-Haenszel model. We
used the I2 statistic and Cochran’s Q test to assess heterogeneity
Study eligibility
across individual studies. We then conducted network meta-
Studies eligible for this review were randomized clinical trials
analyses to combine direct and indirect evidence, using Lumley’s
(RCTs) and observational cohort studies. There was no language generalized linear mixed models (11). A network meta-analysis
restriction. We searched publications that involved adult pa-
tients (18 y and older) with the diagnosis of GD and compared
treatments with at least two of the following interventions: 1) Records identified through Additional records identified
database searching through reference listst from
ATDs (MMI, CBZ, or PTU); 2) RAI; and 3) thyroidectomy. (n=3,274) retrieved articles (n=11)

Data sources and search strategies Records screened Records excluded by title and
We conducted a comprehensive search of databases from da- (n=3,285) abstracts (n=3,116)

tabase inception to March 2012. The following databases were


included: Ovid Medline In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Cita- Studies excluded (n=130)
tions, Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid EMBASE, Ovid Cochrane Data- • Not RCTs or observational
studies (n=17)
base of Systematic Reviews, Ovid Cochrane Central Register of Studies used to
Full-text articles • Did not include selected
Controlled Trials, and Scopus. The search strategy was jointly extract adverse
assessed for interventions (n=108)
effects only
li ibilit (n=169)
eligibility ( 169)
designed by an experienced librarian (L.J.P.) and two of the in- (n=31) • Did not report the selected
outcomes (n=4)
vestigators (J.P.B., V.S.). Controlled vocabulary supplemented • Did not included selected
with keywords was used to search for the concepts GD, thyro- age group (n=1)

toxicosis, RAI, thyroidectomy, MMI, CBZ, PTU, and ATD ef- Studies included in the
fectiveness and adverse effects, limited to controlled trials and meta analyses
meta-analyses
(n=8) 7 English, 1 Spanish
cohort studies. The detailed research strategy is available upon
request. Figure 1. Study selection process.
doi: 10.1210/jc.2013-1954 jcem.endojournals.org 3673

Table 1. Detailed Description of Included Studies


ATDs RAI Surgery

Duration of Follow-Up Follow-Up Follow- Up


Total, Relapse, Therapy, Duration, Total, Relapse, Mean Dose Duration, Total, Relapse, Duration, Type of
Study Country n n (%) mo mo n n (%) of RAI, mCi mo n n (%) mo Surgery

Alizadeh, 1979 (21) United NR NR NR NR 11 0 (0) 8.56 36.6 11 4 (36) 43 NR


States
Sugrue, 1980 (22) Ireland 272 153 (56) 24 60 43 1 (2) 7.45 60 266 16 (6) 60 NR
Berglund, 1991 (23) Sweden 83 36 (43) 20 21 106 5 (5) NR 36 23 2 (9) 17 Subtotal
thyroidectomy
Mengistu, 1992 (24) Ethiopia 47 3 (6) 24 11 NR NR NR NR 6 1 (17) 36 NR
Torring, (old cohort) Sweden 35 12 (34) 18 30 39 15 (38) 6.8 48 37 3 (37) 42 Subtotal
1996 (13) thyroidectomy
Torring (young cohort) Sweden 25 10 (40) 18 30 NA NA NA NA 28 1 (4) 48 Subtotal

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1996 (13) thyroidectomy
Pineda, 1998 (25) Chile 88 58 (66) 6 – 48 NR 70 6 (9) 12.6 NR 37 2 (5) NR NR
Leary, 1999 (26) Ireland 74 50 (68) 18 –24 NR 38 10 (26) 7.5 NR 5 1 (20) NR Subtotal
thyroidectomy
Tutuncu, 2006 (27) Turkey 43 15 (35) 18 52 7 0 (0) 8.1 75 6 0 (0) 40 Subtotal
thyroidectomy

Abbreviations: NR, not reported; NA, not applicable.

approach provides estimates of effects sizes for all possible pair- overall relapse rate was 52.7% (352 of 667) for ATD,
wise comparisons, whether or not they have been compared in 15% (46 of 304) for RAI, and 10% (39 of 387) for surgery.
previous trials (12). We evaluated the agreements of indirect
The studies were conducted in the following countries:
comparisons, also called “incoherence,” and incorporated inco-
herence in the calculation of confidence interval (CI) of the United States, 1; Chile, 1; Ethiopia, 1; Ireland, 2; Sweden,
pooled OR. Data from direct evidence and network meta-anal- 2; and Turkey, 1 (Table 1).
yses were presented together and compared for consistency. Sta-
tistical analyses were completed using STATA version 12 (Stata- Methodological quality
Corp) and R version 2.15.0 (R Foundation for Statistical
The 7 observational studies included in our analysis
Computing).
were of low quality and subject to high risk of bias (Table 2).
The primary limitation of these studies was a lack of com-
parability of cohorts regarding goiter size, gender, age,
Results
and degree of hyperthyroidism. In the only RCT (13), in-
Eight studies were eligible for the main outcome analysis: tention to treat analysis was not performed but allocation
1 RCT, and 7 comparative cohort studies (Figure 1). These concealment was properly described. Due to the limited
studies involved a total of 1402 patients (667 in the ATD number of studies included, we were unable to test pub-
group, 314 patients in the RAI group, and 419 patients in lication bias (14).
the surgical group). The dose of RAI used was included in
6 of 8 studies and was a mean of 8.5 mCi (range, 6.8 to Network analysis
12.6). Mean follow-up duration was 57, 64, and 59 Eight studies were included in the analysis (Table 2).
months for ATDs, RAI, and surgery, respectively. The For the primary outcome, both direct and indirect esti-

Table 2. Quality Assessment of Included Studies


Comparability of
the Cohorts Sufficient
Follow-Up for
Representative Goiter Degree of Assessment Outcomes
First Author, Year (Ref) Study Design of Cohorts Size Gender Age Hyperthyroidism of Outcome to Occur
Alizadeh, 1979 (21) Historical cohort No Unclear Unclear Unclear Yes Records linkage Yes
Sugrue, 1980 (22) Historical cohort No Unclear Unclear Unclear Unclear Records linkage Yes
Berglund, 1991 (23) Historical cohort No Unclear No No Unclear Records linkage Yes
Mengistu, 1992 (24) Concurrent cohort Yes Unclear Unclear Unclear Unclear Records linkage Yes
Pineda, 1998 (25) Historical cohort Yes No Yes No Yes Records linkage Yes
Leary, 1999 (26) Historical cohort Yes Unclear Unclear Unclear Unclear Records linkage Yes
Tutuncu, 2006 (27) Concurrent cohort No Unclear Unclear Unclear Unclear Records linkage Yes
Torring, 1996 (13) Randomized clinical trial NA Blinding Intention to treat analysis Allocation Funding
concealment
No No Yes Nonprofit

Abbreviation: NA, not available.


3674 Sundaresh et al Effectiveness of Graves’ Disease Therapies J Clin Endocrinol Metab, September 2013, 98(9):3671–3677

Table 3. Estimates of Direct and Indirect Comparisons


Direct Network

Comparisons OR 95% CI P Value OR 95% CI P Value


ATD:RAI 6.33 2.40, 16.67 ⬍.01 6.13 3.27, 11.49 .01
ATD:surgery 9.43 4.65, 19.23 ⬍.01 9.80 5.13, 20.00 .01
RAI:surgery 1.53 0.64, 3.65 .34 1.60 0.81, 3.18 .27

mates suggested higher relapse rates with ATDs than RAI adverse effect of MMI was rash (6%; 239 of 3969). He-
(OR ⫽ 6.25; 95% CI, 2.40 –16.67; I2 ⫽ 81%) and with patic involvement was more common with PTU (2.7%; 27
ATDs than surgery (OR ⫽ 9.09; 95% CI, 4.65–19.23; I2 of 983) (Figure 3). Twelve events among 184 patients were
⫽ 42%) (Table 3). There was no significant difference in not specified as to the type of ATD used.

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relapse between RAI and surgery. We did not find large
incoherence in the network (␻ ⬍ 0.001). Forest plots de-
picting the results of random effects meta-analysis are pre- Discussion
sented in Figure 2.
We conducted a systemic review and network analysis of
A search of observational studies describing adverse
the three therapeutic options for the treatment of Graves’
effects of ATD therapy yielded 31 reports in which 660 of
hyperthyroidism to inform the patient-physician discus-
5136 (13%) patients experienced events (MMI, 505 of
sion regarding choice of therapy and to determine the
3969 patients [14.9%]; and PTU, 68 of 983 patients
quality of evidence available in the literature supporting
[6.9%]; OR ⫽ 2.3; 95% CI, 1.8- 3.06). The predominant
the efficacy of these therapies. Clin-
ATDs vs surgery
ical experience demonstrates that all
Author, year OR (95% CI) Weight (%)
Sugrue, 1980 13.73 (8.65, 21.79) 30.22 two modalities successfully elimi-
Berglund, 1991 8.04 (1.77, 36.55) 13.40 nate hyperthyroidism. However, the
Mengistu, 1992 0.34 (0.03, 3.93) 6.75
Torring 1996
Torring, 5 91 (0.50,
5.91 (0 50 23.30)
23 30) 15 06
15.06 comparative effectiveness of these
Torring, 1996 18.00 (2.10, 154.58) 8.25 treatments, as characterized by re-
Pineda, 1998 33.83 (7.61, 150.36) 13.65
Leary, 1999 8.33 (0.88, 78.65) 7.72 lapse rates, is demonstrated in the lit-
Tutuncu, 2006 7.07 (0.37, 134.03) 4.96 erature only by low-quality evi-
q
Overall ((I-squared = 41.6%, P=0.101)) 9.45 ((4.66, 19.17)) 100.0
Note: Weights are from random effects analysis dence. As expected, we found ATDs
to have a higher relapse rate than ei-
0.01 0.1 1 10
ATD is better Surgery is better ther RAI therapy or thyroidectomy,
ATD vs RAI
ATDs
with the latter two therapies having
Author, year OR (95% CI) Weight (%)
Sugrue, 1980 6.10 (2.81, 13.24) 19.39 no significant difference in relapse
Berglund, 1991 15.47 (5.71, 41.95) 17.94 rates. It is important to note that the
Torring, 1996 0.93 (0.32, 2.16) 18.2
Pineda, 1998 20.62 (8.01, 53.10) 18.29 most “effective” therapy from the
Leary 1999
Leary, 5 83 (2.44,
5.83 (2 44 13.93)
13 93) 18 78
18.78 physician’s perspective both elimi-
Tutuncu, 2006 8.16 (0.44, 152.59) 7.35
Overall (I-squared = 81.2%, P=0.000) 6.35 (2.40, 16.77) 100.00 nates hyperthyroidism and prevents
Note: Weights are from random effects analysis its recurrence. In fact, the goal of
0.01
0 0 0.1
0 1 10
0 both RAI and thyroidectomy is to
ATD is better RAI is better
render the patient hypothyroid such
RAI vs surgery that lifelong thyroid hormone re-
Author, year OR (95% CI) Weight (%)
Alizadeh, 1979 0.07 (0.00, 1.55) 6.58 placement is necessary. In contrast,
Sugrue 1980
Sugrue, 19 2 25 (0
2.25 (0.98,
98 55.17)
17) 26 69
26.69 patients may well desire a treatment
Berglund, 1991 0.52 (0.09, 2.86) 14.99
Torring, 1996 7.08 (1.85, 27.19) 19.16 that has the potential to allow their
Pineda, 1998 1.64 (0.31, 8.56) 15.54 thyroid to resume normal function-
Leary, 1999 1.43 (0.14, 14.35) 10.15
Tutuncu, 2006 0.86 ((0.04, 16.85)) 6.88 ing. In this sense, ATDs carry an ad-
Overall (I-squared = 44.6%, P=0.094) 1.53 (0.64, 3.65) 100.00 vantage over surgery and RAI that
Note: Weights are from random effects analysis
was not captured in our comparative
0.01 0.1 1 10
effectiveness data.
RAI is better Surgery is better
The mean dose of RAI was 8.5
Figure 2. Random effect meta-analysis of the included studies comparing risk relapse rates
among the 3 interventions. Vertical lines indicate no risk difference; squares and horizontal lines mCi (range, 6.8 to 12.6). Dosing was
indicate OR and associated 95% CI for each study; diamonds indicate pooled OR. mainly based on goiter size and RAI
doi: 10.1210/jc.2013-1954 jcem.endojournals.org 3675

Metallic taste
meta-analysis (18) also reported the complications of
Elevated liver total thyroidectomy to be hypoparathyroidism (tempo-
enzyme
Leucopenia
rary, 32.5%; and permanent, 2.6%), recurrent laryngeal
nerve injury (temporary, 3.43%; and permanent, 1.46%),
Nausea
Arthralgia
and immediate postoperative bleeding (⬍1%). Because
Pruritus
PTU these complications are operator dependent, individual
MMI
Rash
surgeons should discuss their own complication rates
Any
while counseling their patients.
Our study has limitations, perhaps the primary one be-
15.0
% ing the increased risk of bias inherent in the included co-
Figure 3. Adverse effects documented in studies reviewed, with
hort studies. We identified only a single RCT; the remain-
percentage of total attributed to individual adverse effects. ing studies were observational. In addition, the number of

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included studies and enrolled patients was small, affecting
the precision of our estimates. We also had limited infor-
uptake. In addition, 1 study incorporated age, gender, and
mation concerning the size of thyroid gland, severity of
clinical severity in dose determinations, whereas in an-
hyperthyroidism, or other predefined factors (dose of
other, dosing was empirical. The relatively low doses of
ATD and extent of thyroid surgery) needed to conduct
RAI used in these studies may be explained by the inclu-
subgroup analysis and explore the effect of important co-
sion of patients from iodine-deficient countries that tend
variates. Our strengths stem from the clinical relevancy of
to have higher RAI uptake, by advice given to some pa-
tients to follow a low-iodine diet before RAI therapy or by the question at hand, preplanned analysis, extensive lit-
the goal of RAI in some practices being to achieve euthy- erature search, reproducible duplicate data extraction and
roidism rather than to render the patient hypothyroid as collection, and greater generalizability of the results be-
recommended in recent guidelines (6). cause our studies originated from five different countries
Full understanding of the consequences of the two and six continents reflecting various races and ethnic pop-
treatments includes a discussion between physician and ulation groups. Our network model also had low hetero-
patient regarding the adverse effects of each modality. Un- geneity and appeared consistent.
fortunately, adverse effects were not reported consistently Our search of the literature did not identify other ex-
across the included studies. Therefore, we selected other isting network meta-analyses evaluating the comparative
observational studies of ATDs to estimate the adverse ef- effectiveness of the three treatment options for Graves’
fects of these agents and used landmark studies to discuss hyperthyroidism in adults. The most recent systematic re-
the adverse effects of RAI therapy and thyroidectomy. We view focusing on the best definitive treatment for GD re-
found a significant rate of adverse effects for ATDs (13%) ported surgery to be 3.44 times more likely to be successful
reported in 31 observational studies involving medical than RAI (P ⬍ .001) (19). In that review, total thyroidec-
therapy alone. The predominant adverse effect of MMI tomy was 95.45 times more successful than RAI, whereas
was rash (6%), and that of PTU was hepatic involvement subtotal thyroidectomy was only 2.33 times more success-
(2.7%) (Figure 3). Individual studies in the literature sug- ful than RAI (P ⬍ .001). The search strategy differed from
gest that the most common adverse effect of RAI therapy our own in that it was limited to studies published between
is new or worsened Graves’ ophthalmopathy, which may 2001 and 2011, it did not compare ATDs, and a network
develop in 15–33% of patients, particularly smokers (15, analysis was not performed.
16). Another complication of RAI therapy is radiation The recently published guidelines for management of
thyroiditis, occurring in about 1% of the patients (17). hyperthyroidism by the American Thyroid Association
Potential complications of thyroidectomy (either total and the American Association of Clinical Endocrinolo-
or subtotal) include hypoparathyroidism (temporary, gists have simplified the clinical decision-making process
22.5%; permanent, 1.8%), recurrent laryngeal nerve in- (6). Factors that favor a particular modality as treatment
jury (temporary, 3.3%; permanent, 1.24%), and imme- in the presence of limitations to the other therapies have
diate postoperative bleeding (1%) (18). Four among the 8 been well detailed. For example, a 44-year-old executive
studies in our analysis specified the type of surgery per- concerned about insomnia with limited time for future
formed, which was subtotal thyroidectomy in every in- visits will value a treatment that offers the fastest resolu-
stance. Because total thyroidectomy has become the stan- tion of symptoms and might opt for thyroid surgery per-
dard of care in the last decade (6), it would be most formed by a high-volume surgeon. A 35-year-old opera
meaningful to discuss with the patient the potential singer concerned about the possible postoperative damage
complications of total thyroidectomy alone. The same to her voice and the need for lifelong thyroid replacement
3676 Sundaresh et al Effectiveness of Graves’ Disease Therapies J Clin Endocrinol Metab, September 2013, 98(9):3671–3677

may opt for ATD therapy. Finally, the guidelines weave in and Nutrition, Mayo Clinic, 200 First Street SW, Rochester,
2 essential concepts: 1) the importance of careful discus- Minnesota 55902. E-mail: bahn.rebecca@mayo.edu.
sion between patient and physician; and 2) the need to This publication was made possible by CTSA Grant UL1
include the values and preferences of the patient in shared TR000135 from the National Center for Advancing Transla-
tional Sciences, a component of the National Institutes of Health
decision-making. The treating physician is advised to dis-
(NIH). Its contents are solely the responsibility of the authors and
cuss the available treatment options in light of the indi-
do not necessarily represent the official view of NIH.
vidual patient’s medical status and preferences. Issues to Disclosure Summary: The authors have nothing to disclose.
be discussed include advantages, drawbacks, potential ad-
verse effects, expected time to recovery, local availability
of expertise, financial implications, time away from work,
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