Date Of Share share ESTIMATED

Price X price(Y) XY X2 (Ŷ)= A+b(X) ERROR

12/15/2017 1 171.60 171.60 1.00 187.21 -15.61
12/22/2017 2 175.95 351.90 4.00 181.49 -5.54
12/29/2017 3 171.40 514.20 9.00 175.78 -4.38
1/5/2018 4 176.00 704.00 16.00 170.06 5.94
1/12/2018 5 174.20 871.00 25.00 164.35 9.85
1/19/2018 6 176.40 1058.40 36.00 158.64 17.76
1/26/2018 7 180.90 1266.30 49.00 152.92 27.98
2/2/2018 8 161.85 1294.80 64.00 147.21 14.64
2/9/2018 9 156.80 1411.20 81.00 141.50 15.30
2/16/2018 10 125.55 1255.50 100.00 135.78 -10.23
2/23/2018 11 113.45 1247.95 121.00 130.07 -16.62
3/1/2018 12 101.05 1212.60 144.00 124.35 -23.30
3/9/2018 13 95.60 1242.80 169.00 118.64 -23.04
3/16/2018 14 98.85 1383.90 196.00 112.93 -14.08
3/23/2018 15 93.15 1397.25 225.00 107.21 -14.06
3/30/2018 16 95.30 1524.80 256.00 101.50 -6.20
4/6/2018 17 102.15 1736.55 289.00 95.79 6.36
4/13/2018 18 101.30 1823.40 324.00 90.07 11.23
4/20/2018 19 93.60 1778.40 361.00 84.36 9.24
4/27/2018 20 93.40 1868.00 400.00 78.64 14.76
2658.50 0.00

Calculation Calculation 12/15/2017 1.290953545232

SLOPE(B) -5.71383459 MEDIAN 119.50 12/22/2017 1.323678766222
value of A 192.9202632 MEAN 135.01 12/29/2017 1.289448937371
MEAN ERROR Variance 11.40 1/5/2018 1.324054918187

MAE(MEAN
ABSOLUTE Standard
ERROR 13.30606767 deviation 3.38 1/12/2018 1.310513447433

MSE(MEAN
SQUARE
ERROR) 216.5680111 MAXIMUM 180.90 1/19/2018 1.32706413391

MEAN
ABSOLUTE
PERCENTAGE
ERROR 10.85 MINIMUM 93.15 1/26/2018 1.360917810796
4.3875 2/2/2018 1.21760391198
2/9/2018 1.179612563476
2/16/2018 0.944517585104
2/23/2018 0.853488809479
s 3/1/2018 0.760203122061
3/9/2018 0.719202557833
3/16/2018 0.743652435584
3/23/2018 0.700771111529
3/30/2018 0.716945646041
4/6/2018 0.7684784653
4/13/2018 0.762083881888
4/20/2018 0.704156479218
4/27/2018 0.702651871356
 SEASONAL
PERCENTAGE FORECAST
I ERROR I (ERROR)2 ERROR WITH TREND
Estimated & Actua
15.61 243.5606 9.0946553447 187.206428571
5.54 30.72035 3.1500960415 16.8045644599 INR 200.00
4.38 19.17353 2.5547020995 25.2068466899
5.94 35.22512 3.3722018113 33.6091289199 INR 190.00
9.85 97.00102 5.6537943596 42.0114111498
INR 180.00
17.76 315.5151 10.069582971 50.4136933798
27.98 782.689 15.465217771 58.8159756098 INR 170.00
14.64 214.3417 9.0456679233 67.2182578397
15.30 234.22 9.7603623216 75.6205400697 INR 160.00
10.23 104.6921 8.1496752634 84.0228222997
INR 150.00
16.62 276.1607 14.647935396 92.4251045296
23.30 543.088 23.062096111 100.82738676 INR 140.00
23.04 530.8607 24.100850977 109.22966899
14.08 198.1501 14.240342891 117.63195122 INR 130.00
14.06 197.7608 15.096880688 126.034233449
INR 120.00
6.20 38.42648 6.5046272554 134.436515679
6.36 40.51227 6.2309591895 142.838797909 INR 110.00
11.23 126.085 11.084658834 151.241080139
9.24 85.42554 9.8745662233 159.643362369 INR 100.00
14.76 217.7522 15.799174059 168.045644599
INR 90.00
266.12 4331.36 216.96
INR 80.00

INR 70.00 REASON

15-12-17 15-01-18 15-02-18
 heavy sell0ff by the Foreign Instituti
 the stock market experts, this crash

data pattern CYCLICAL .The net loss will be around Rs 5000 cro

ESTIMATED (Ŷ)= A+b(X) share price(Y)

 Estimated & Actual Data
93.15
14.71598 93.40
93.60
95.30
95.60
98.85
101.05
101.30
102.15
113.45
125.55
156.80
161.85
171.40
171.60
174.20
175.95
176.00
176.40
180.90

119.50

5-01-18 15-02-18 15-03-18 15-04-18

ell0ff by the Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), especially in the banking and finance, Auto and IT stocks
ck market experts, this crash is caused mainly by the current negative sentiment that engulfed the Punjab National B

oss will be around Rs 5000 crores .After writing off Rs.5000 crores from reserves still Reserve left is Rs .35500 crores .Bank is still

TED (Ŷ)= A+b(X) share price(Y) Linear (share price(Y))

o and IT stocks
ed the Punjab National Bank stockholders.

Rs .35500 crores .Bank is still sound .No need to worry .

 Turnover(Y) in ESTIMATED
YEAR OF SALE X trillion XY X2 (Ŷ)= A+b(X) ERROR (ERROR)2
2016 1 2.18 2.18 1.00 2.31 -0.13 0.017525
2017 2 2.42 4.84 4.00 2.52 -0.10 0.010019
2018 3 2.76 8.28 9.00 2.73 0.03 0.001036
2019 4 3.36 13.44 16.00 2.94 0.42 0.18018
2020 5 3.26 16.30 25.00 3.14 0.12 0.013633
2021 6 3.01 18.06 36.00 3.35 -0.34 0.116249
7 49.00 3.56
8 64.00 3.77
9 81.00 3.97
10 100.00 4.18
16.99 0.00 0.34

Calculation Calculation
SLOPE(B) 0.207714286 MEDIAN 2.89 DATA RANGE 2-18 TO 3.36

value of A 2.104666667 MEAN 2.83 DATA PATTERLINEAR TREND

MEAN ERROR 0 Variance 0.01

MAE(MEAN
ABSOLUTE Standard
ERROR 0.095571429 deviation 0.11

MSE(MEAN
SQUARE
ERROR) 0.056440317 MAXIMUM 3.36

MEAN
ABSOLUTE
PERCENTAGE
ERROR -69.25 MINIMUM 2.18
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
PERCENTAGE SEASONAL FORECAST
ERROR WITH TREND
4.00
Estimated & A
-6.07 1.78022029765408
-4.14 2.15372471201547
3.50
1.17 2.65877137812158
12.63 3.4832348440259 3.00
3.58 3.61870142100395
-11.33 3.56198940553267 2.50
0
0 2.00
0
1.50
0
-4.15 1.00

0.50

0.00
2016 2017 2018

Turnover(Y) in trillion
SEASONAL FORECAST WITH TRE

0.7698646263
0.8546203649
0.9746909947
1.1865803414
1.1512654503
1.0629782225
 Estimated & Actual Data

16 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Turnover(Y) in trillion ESTIMATED (Ŷ)= A+b(X)

SEASONAL FORECAST WITH TREND
 Date Of Share Y=share ESTIMATEd(Ŷ)= ERROR=
Price X price XY X2 A+b(x) Y-Ŷ
2011 1 1186.00 1186.00 1.00 1199.67 -13.67
2012 2 1220.00 2440.00 4.00 1215.69 4.31 1400.0
2013 3 1235.00 3705.00 9.00 1231.71 3.29
2014 4 1251.00 5004.00 16.00 1247.73 3.27 1350.0
2015 5 1267.00 6335.00 25.00 1263.75 3.25
2016 6 1283.00 7698.00 36.00 1279.77 3.23 1300.0
2017 7 1299.00 9093.00 49.00 1295.79 3.21
2018 8 1314.00 10512.00 64.00 1311.81 2.19 1250.0
2019 9 1327.00 11943.00 81.00 1327.83 -0.83 Axis Title
2020 10 1341.00 13410.00 100.00 1343.85 -2.85 1200.0
2021 11 1355.00 14905.00 121.00 1359.87 -4.87
1150.0
Total 14078.00 86231.00 506.00 14077.47 0.53

1100.0

Calculation
1050.0

Slope Of Line (B) 16.02

Intercept
Value( A) 1183.65
 Chart
SGST Title
26165

1400.00

1350.00

1300.00

ESTIMATEd(Ŷ)=A+b(x)
1250.00
Y=share price
Axis Title
1200.00

1150.00

1100.00

1050.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
d(Ŷ)=A+b(x)
ice
 ESTIMATE
YEAR OF Turnover(Y) D (Ŷ)=
SALE X in Billion XY X2 A+b(X) ERROR I ERROR I
Jun-17 JUNE 1 571.26 571.26 1.00 589.88 -18.62 18.62
Sep-17 SEP 2 533.25 1066.50 4.00 601.77 -68.51 68.51
Dec-17 DEC 3 606.16 1818.49 9.00 613.65 -7.49 7.49
Mar-18 MARCH 4 652.39 2609.57 16.00 625.54 26.86 26.86
Jun-18 JUNE 5 716.97 3584.84 25.00 637.42 79.54 79.54
Sep-18 SEP 6 722.92 4337.51 36.00 649.31 73.61 73.61
Dec-18 DEC 7 792.03 5544.22 49.00 661.19 130.84 130.84
Mar-19 MARCH 8 739.90 5919.23 64.00 673.08 66.83 66.83
Jun-19 JUNE 9 763.18 6868.61 81.00 684.96 78.21 78.21
Sep-19 SEP 10 643.41 6434.08 100.00 696.85 -53.44 53.44
Dec-19 DEC 11 747.33 8220.61 121.00 708.74 38.59 38.59
Mar-20 MARCH 12 689.91 8278.97 144.00 720.62 -30.71 30.71
Jun-20 JUNE 13 387.85 5042.06 169.00 732.51 -344.66 344.66
Sep-20 SEP 14 501.46 7020.49 196.00 744.39 -242.93 242.93
Dec-20 DEC 15 667.31 10009.71 225.00 756.28 -88.96 88.96
Mar-21 MARCH 16 768.82 12301.17 256.00 768.16 0.66 0.66
Jun-21 JUNE 17 709.21 12056.62 289.00 780.05 -70.84 70.84
Sep-21 SEP 18 1016.32 18293.70 324.00 791.93 224.38 224.38
Dec-21 DEC 19 1010.45 19198.60 361.00 803.82 206.63 206.63
Mar-22 MARCH 20 ? 815.71
13240.15 0.00 1852.31

Calculation Calculation
SLOPE(B) 11.88549965 MEDIAN 709.21 DATA RAN387.85 TO 1016.32

value of A 577.995014 MEAN 696.85 DATA PAT LINEAR TREND

MEAN
ERROR 0 0 Variance 926.13

MAE(MEAN
ABSOLUTE Standard
ERROR 97.49021008 deviation 30.43

MSE(MEAN
SQUARE
ERROR) 17596.50142 MAXIMUM 1016.32

MEAN
ABSOLUTE
PERCENTAGE
ERROR 15.77 MINIMUM 387.85
 PERCENTAGE seasonal ESTIMATIVE-
(ERROR)2 ERROR index SEASONAL reference
346.79802 3.26 533.03 38.23 https://www.moneycontrol.com/financials/bharatpetroleumcorporati
4694.17 12.85 590.21 -56.96
56.068841 1.24 673.36 -67.20 Trend line V/
721.24943 4.12 639.82 12.58
ESTIMATED (Ŷ)= A+b(X)
6327.3733 11.09 575.99 140.97
5418.4598 10.18 636.84 86.08 900.00
17118.475 16.52 725.53 66.50 850.00
4465.6059 9.03 688.45 51.46 800.00
6117.5689 10.25 618.95 144.23
750.00
2856.0699 8.31 683.47 -40.06 725.53
1489.3726 5.16 777.70 -30.37 700.00 688.45 6
673.36 661.19 673.08
942.89589 4.45 737.07 -47.16 650.00 649.31
639.82 637.42 636.84
613.65 625.54 6
118787.76 88.86 661.91 -274.06 600.00
589.88 601.77
590.21
59014.212 48.44 730.10 -228.64 575.99
550.00
7914.5237 13.33 829.87 -162.55 533.03
0.4358529 0.09 785.70 -16.88 500.00Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-1
5017.6975 9.99 704.87 4.34
50347.593 22.08 776.73 239.59 1100.00
42697.194 20.45 882.04 128.42 1050.00
1000.00
334333.53 299.70 13251.66 -11.51 950.00
900.00
850.00
800.00
750.00
700.00
650.00
600.00
550.00
500.00
450.00
400.00
350.00
Jun-17 Nov-17 Apr-18 Sep-18 Feb-19 Jul-19 Dec-19 M

2016 Err:504
2017 Err:504
2018 Err:504
2019 Err:504
2020 Err:504
2021 Err:504
s/bharatpetroleumcorporation/results/quarterly-results/BPC/1#BPC

Trend line V/s Seasonal Line

ESTIMATED (Ŷ)= A+b(X) ESTIMATIVE- SEASONAL 38.23

882.04
829.87
803.82
777.70 785.70 780.05 791.93
776.73
756.28 768.16
725.53 737.07 732.51 744.39
730.10
708.74 720.62 704.87
688.45 684.96 696.85
683.47
661.19 673.08 661.91
7.42 649.31
636.84
618.95
5.99

Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21

ESTIMATED (Ŷ)= A+b(X)

Turnover(Y) in Billion

Feb-19 Jul-19 Dec-19 May-20 Oct-20 Mar-21 Aug-21

seasonal index
june 0.903629
sep 0.980802 1000.00
dec 1.097306
march 1.022829 800.00

600.00

400.00

200.00

0.00
Jun-17 Jun-19 Jun-2
-200.00

-400.00
 seasonal index
ESTIMATIVE- SEASONAL

Jun-19 Jun-21