Ashish Gupta, Tasha Paul, Donald Gemmel, Cindy Lam

Midterm Project
Effect of Climate Change on the Migration of Black Crowned Night Herons
Professor: Dr. Quinlan
Introduction
Over the past few centuries, Earth’s temperature has been steadily increasing at the rate of 0.14°F
(0.08°C) per decade since 1800, and for the past 40 years, the average temperature of the Earth has
been increasing at a rate of 0.32°C (0.18°C).[1] The effects of climate change over the past years can be
seen through many different aspects of Earth’s environment, of which the black-crowned night heron is
seen to be adapting to these changes. The black-crowned night heron is a common bird found in parts of
Europe, Asia, and the Americas.[2] Studying migration patterns can offer us insight into the changing
climate and the status of ecosystems due to the fact that birds are integral parts of their respective
ecosystems.[3] Black herons thrive in wetlands where they can forage fish and earthworms and use
terrestrial vegetation as cover from predators.[4] We hope to elucidate the effects of climate change on
the night heron’s migration patterns by observing their coordinate locations with respect to time. In this
study, we observe a shift in the latitude of black-crowned herons in Canada and the United States from
1967 to 2022. We hypothesize that the migration patterns of the black-crowned night herons will change
as the global temperature continues to increase.

Methods
To analyze the dataset, we utilized two methods of statistical analysis. The first method employed the
Python packages matplotlib and NumPy to aggregate data on black-crowned night heron sightings and
cleaned the data of incomplete entries and other error-prone datapoints. After cleaning the data, we
continued to use Python to analyze the average monthly position of the birds over a period of 22 years,
starting in January of 2000 and ending in December of 2021. Finally, we used the matplotlib package to
visualize the data and see trends in migratory behavior. Specifically, we focused on the southern
migration pattern of the herons, the average monthly latitude, and the floating average monthly latitude,
which was used to analyze longer-lasting trends while also minimizing outliers. This data was all
visualized using Python plots and used in results and discussion. The second method utilized to analyze
the night heron sightings is Google Sheets. We decided to take in the maximum observed latitude value
within a certain year to find how far north the black-crowned night herons have been traveling. Similar
to the first method, we also eliminated error points and only included Canada and the United States so
that the data was consistent with one another.

Results and Discussion

According to Figure 1, the black-crowned night heron’s latitude increases (towards the north) by
approximately 0.217° each year. This is equivalent to 15 miles as each degree of latitude is roughly equal
to 69 miles, so when multiplying the degrees of change per year by the equivalency, we get 15 miles of
northward movement per year.[5] We believe this is due to global temperature increases resulting from
climate change. Because the northern areas are also starting to warm up, the night herons have begun to
move northwards to find a place to reside. Figure 2 shows how far south the birds have traveled since
2000, and it suggests that the night herons are not traveling as far south each year, especially after the
140-month mark. A possible reason for this is the need to travel south decreasing each year as the places
 Ashish Gupta, Tasha Paul, Donald Gemmel, Cindy Lam

further north get warmer each year. In Figure 3, the trend shows the latitude at which night herons are
spotted staying around the 38-45° line. This is different from the first 130 months since the year 2000,
when black-crowned night herons were spotted at lower latitudes.

Other bird populations have shown similar changes in migration patterns. According to the National
Audubon Society, birds such as blue jays and great blue herons have been migrating further northward
each year in accordance with temperature increases.[6, 7] There are many birds that are experiencing lack
of food and other ecosystem changes, which can lead to changes in migration patterns. Potential
solutions to this issue would be actions in regulating climate change, such as energy reduction and
minimizing fossil fuel emissions. Conservation efforts to protect marshlands and newer ecosystems that
night herons are migrating to would help keep the species from endangerment. Additionally, the
migration of the black-crowned night herons impact not only the ecosystems they are newly migrating
to, but also the ecosystems that they no longer return to. Careful monitoring of both sets of
environments will greatly improve the ability of environmental organizations in protecting the habitats
and ecological stability of these places.

Figure 1. This linear fit represents the maximum laAtitude of black-crowned night herons from 1967 to
2022. There is a noticeable increase over the time period of 0.2° each year, which is equivalent to
approximately 15 miles. The method used to analyze the data in this figure is Google sheets.
 Ashish Gupta, Tasha Paul, Donald Gemmel, Cindy Lam

Figure 2. This chart displays the southern extent of bird migrations over a period of 22 years from 2000
to 2021. Using Python, the bird positions in the lower half of latitudes were collected, analyzed, and
graphed to display the bird’s southern migration patterns over the 22 year period. This graph indicates
the increasing latitude of the southern tips of the birds’ migratory patterns, implying that over the 22
year period, birds have migrated less southward.

Figure 3. This graph shows the monthly latitude of bird populations over a 22 year period from 2000 to
2021. The orange linear regression trend line on the graph displays the long-term trends of bird
migration, indicating that the general migratory range and pattern is shifting northward.
 Ashish Gupta, Tasha Paul, Donald Gemmel, Cindy Lam

Citations

[1]
Dahlman, Rebecca Lindsey and LuAnn. “Climate Change: Global Temperature.” Climate Change: Global
Temperature | NOAA Climate.gov,
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperat
ure.

[2]
“Black-Crowned Night-Heron Identification, All about Birds, Cornell Lab of Ornithology.” All About Birds,
Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Cornell University,
https://www.allaboutbirds.org/guide/Black-crowned_Night-Heron/id.

[3]
Magazine, Smithsonian. “Bird Migration Patterns Are Changing-and Climate Change May Be to Blame.”
Smithsonian.com, Smithsonian Institution, 12 Nov. 2021,
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/bird-migration-patterns-are-changing-and-clima
te-change-may-be-to-blame-180979054/.

[4]
“Black-Crowned Night-Heron Life History, All about Birds, Cornell Lab of Ornithology.” , All About Birds,
Cornell Lab of Ornithology,
https://www.allaboutbirds.org/guide/Black-crowned_Night-Heron/lifehistory.

[5]
“How Much Distance Does a Degree, Minute, and Second Cover on Your Maps?” How Much Distance
Does a Degree, Minute, and Second Cover on Your Maps? | U.S. Geological Survey,
https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/how-much-distance-does-degree-minute-and-second-cover-your-ma
ps

[6]
“Blue Jay.” Audubon, National Audubon Society, 20 Oct. 2021,
www.audubon.org/field-guide/bird/blue-jay.

[7]
“Great Blue Heron.” Audubon, National Audubon Society, 20 Oct. 2021,
www.audubon.org/field-guide/bird/great-blue-heron.

Data:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xxxgijTcT5wBv2jibIZ-JCfB4IJpQVrA/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=11
5635228727416791344&rtpof=true&sd=true