Econometrics

Submitted To: Prof. Dr. Salman Rizavi

Submitted By: Areej Fatima
M. PHIL21-HC05
HAILEY COLLEGE OF COMMERCE
FRANCE

DATA

Personal
GDP import exports GGFCE Taxes remittances
1.45E+12 7.05E+10 8.48E+10 3.03E+11 39000000 9741087205
1.5E+12 7.49E+10 9E+10 3.06E+11 38000000 10021054778
1.49E+12 9.12E+10 1.06E+11 3.17E+11 24000000 9446332527
1.37E+12 8.46E+10 9.67E+10 3.3E+11 19000000 8869551607
1.38E+12 8.72E+10 1E+11 3.41E+11 7000000 9194240138
1.5E+12 9.48E+10 1.13E+11 3.61E+11 5000000 10599319442
1.84E+12 1.1E+11 1.26E+11 3.77E+11 -5000000 12231755971
2.12E+12 1.26E+11 1.43E+11 3.93E+11 -1.1E+07 13342614138
2.2E+12 1.34E+11 1.53E+11 4.07E+11 73000000 14205076473
2.32E+12 1.46E+11 1.65E+11 4.21E+11 -2.5E+08 15535237652
2.66E+12 1.69E+11 1.97E+11 4.36E+11 -9.8E+07 17586416269
2.93E+12 1.95E+11 2.24E+11 4.5E+11 -1.1E+08 20085696123
2.7E+12 1.76E+11 1.94E+11 4.66E+11 -9.7E+07 19665370194
2.65E+12 1.82E+11 2.02E+11 4.79E+11 -1.1E+08 19898258274
2.87E+12 2.03E+11 2.37E+11 4.89E+11 -1.7E+07 22942280254
2.68E+12 2.03E+11 2.34E+11 5E+11 -1.3E+08 22666366759
2.81E+12 2.28E+11 2.54E+11 5.1E+11 -3.8E+07 24412282153
2.86E+12 2.53E+11 2.73E+11 5.19E+11 -1.2E+08 25358374728
2.44E+12 2.33E+11 2.56E+11 5.23E+11 -1.2E+08 24066989837
2.47E+12 2.37E+11 2.59E+11 5.3E+11 -1.1E+08 24042348847
2.6E+12 2.47E+11 2.75E+11 5.43E+11 -1.3E+08 24884547856
2.79E+12 2.74E+11 3.02E+11 5.5E+11 -1.3E+08 26229274711
2.73E+12 2.69E+11 2.96E+11 5.6E+11 -1.2E+08 26173645645
2.63E+12 2.36E+11 2.55E+11 5.77E+11 0 25141879667

OVERALLL
LINEST
103.6590753 -1010.74 0.361412 22.2778 -27.436 5.97E+11
60.26705919 766.8632 2.981854 12.23593 12.84169 6.81E+11
0.875032621 2.22E+11 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
25.20751778 18 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
6.23866E+24 8.91E+23 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
SUMMARY
OUTPUT

Regression
Statistics
Multiple R 0.935431783
R Square 0.875032621
Adjusted R Square 0.84031946
Standard Error 2.22482E+11
Observations 24

ANOVA
Significance
df SS MS F F
Regression 5 6.23866E+24 1.24773E+24 25.20751778 1.53319E-07
Residual 18 8.90971E+23 4.94984E+22
Total 23 7.12963E+24

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Low
-
Intercept 5.9738E+11 6.80584E+11 0.877746262 0.391647016 8.32474E+11 2.02723E+12 8.3
- - -
X Variable 1 27.43596395 12.84169495 -2.13647529 0.046625216 54.41536391 0.456563985 54.
-
X Variable 2 22.27780278 12.23593145 1.820687119 0.085321558 3.428935284 47.98454083 3.4
-
X Variable 3 0.3614115 2.98185396 0.121203622 0.904872535 5.903231206 6.626054207 5.9
- - -
X Variable 4 1010.744314 766.8632407 1.318024206 0.204023774 2621.864199 600.3755701 262
-
X Variable 5 103.6590753 60.26705919 1.719995577 0.102579706 22.95731768 230.2754682 22.

RESIDUAL
OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Y Residuals

1 1.6302E+12 -1.77317E+11
2 1.65848E+12 -1.55367E+11
3 1.53339E+12 -40241213999
4 1.44922E+12 -83577860921
5 1.51052E+12 -1.32859E+11
6 1.73628E+12 -2.34868E+11
 7 1.80575E+12 38790612589
8 1.86874E+12 2.50889E+11
9 1.87189E+12 3.25055E+11
10 2.28832E+12 32212505206
11 2.41321E+12 2.47379E+11
12 2.6028E+12 3.27499E+11
13 2.39104E+12 3.09844E+11
14 2.45087E+12 1.94313E+11
15 2.8722E+12 -7045870536
16 2.91877E+12 -2.35099E+11
17 2.7538E+12 58072258862
18 2.67864E+12 1.7732E+11
19 2.69415E+12 -2.54963E+11
20 2.6759E+12 -2.02939E+11
21 2.85247E+12 -2.57321E+11
22 2.86653E+12 -75569665501
23 2.83984E+12 -1.10969E+11
24 2.62356E+12 6761610225

Multicollinearity
GDP X1 X2 X3 X4 X5
1.45288E+12 70548556201 84780430292 3.03E+11 39000000 9741087205
1.50311E+12 74930200686 90045569037 3.06E+11 38000000 10021054778
1.49315E+12 91173021808 1.0629E+11 3.17E+11 24000000 9446332527
1.36564E+12 84600825698 96662707583 3.3E+11 19000000 8869551607
1.37766E+12 87182497673 1.00368E+11 3.41E+11 7000000 9194240138
1.50141E+12 94839842287 1.12977E+11 3.61E+11 5000000 10599319442
1.84454E+12 1.09696E+11 1.26072E+11 3.77E+11 -5000000 12231755971
2.11963E+12 1.25651E+11 1.42859E+11 3.93E+11 -1.1E+07 13342614138
2.19695E+12 1.34294E+11 1.53205E+11 4.07E+11 73000000 14205076473
2.32054E+12 1.4634E+11 1.65493E+11 4.21E+11 -2.5E+08 15535237652
2.66059E+12 1.69398E+11 1.96787E+11 4.36E+11 -9.8E+07 17586416269
2.9303E+12 1.94898E+11 2.24346E+11 4.5E+11 -1.1E+08 20085696123
2.70089E+12 1.76297E+11 1.94161E+11 4.66E+11 -9.7E+07 19665370194
2.64519E+12 1.81652E+11 2.01658E+11 4.79E+11 -1.1E+08 19898258274
2.86516E+12 2.03139E+11 2.36834E+11 4.89E+11 -1.7E+07 22942280254
2.68367E+12 2.0252E+11 2.34314E+11 5E+11 -1.3E+08 22666366759
2.81188E+12 2.28185E+11 2.54219E+11 5.1E+11 -3.8E+07 24412282153
2.85596E+12 2.52694E+11 2.72956E+11 5.19E+11 -1.2E+08 25358374728
 2.43919E+12 2.33351E+11 2.55581E+11 5.23E+11 -1.2E+08 24066989837
2.47296E+12 2.36706E+11 2.59215E+11 5.3E+11 -1.1E+08 24042348847
2.59515E+12 2.46948E+11 2.7499E+11 5.43E+11 -1.3E+08 24884547856
2.79096E+12 2.73846E+11 3.02378E+11 5.5E+11 -1.3E+08 26229274711
2.72887E+12 2.69367E+11 2.96165E+11 5.6E+11 -1.2E+08 26173645645
2.63032E+12 2.3573E+11 2.54909E+11 5.77E+11 0 25141879667

AXIALLARY
REGRESSION
X1 ON X2,X3,X4,X5
-0.54490061 1.660336166 0.091009 0.875253 -27807762092
1.06938379 13.69464702 0.049008 0.086394 10350479146
0.997136968 3974627524 #N/A #N/A #N/A
1654.330135 19 #N/A #N/A #N/A
1.04538E+23 3.00156E+20 #N/A #N/A #N/A
VIF 349.2800283

X3,ON X2,X1,X4,X5
-1.2560953 1.687940746 9.820754 0.112728 2.19421E+11
0.896209689 0.90895495 4.052603 59.00037 14416714399
0.968692376 17117187796 #N/A #N/A #N/A
146.9702349 19 #N/A #N/A #N/A
1.72248E+23 5.56696E+21 #N/A #N/A #N/A
VIF 31.94110208

X4,ON X2,X1,X3,X5
1.539915355 0.02404128 0.083981 -0.02474 -4411943537
2.897725688 0.009920803 0.042406 0.048553 2384844480
0.985714676 846912972.2 #N/A #N/A #N/A
327.7590872 19 #N/A #N/A #N/A
9.40356E+20 1.3628E+19 #N/A #N/A #N/A
VIF 70.0019131

X2 ON X1,X3,X4,X5
0.964060173 2.037350499 -7.69823 -0.0746 23297640561
 0.09515992 1.028768581 14.26931 0.053224 11587199471
0.99723875 4171399165 #N/A #N/A #N/A
1715.485252 19 #N/A #N/A #N/A
1.19402E+23 3.30611E+20 #N/A #N/A #N/A
VIF 362.1547899

X3,ON X2,X1,X4,X5
1.70439E-06 -0.00195988 0.000466 0.009511 67549724.53
0.000892055 0.003632797 0.00384 0.017897 203013743.1
0.406026296 66558092.12 #N/A #N/A #N/A
3.246987022 19 #N/A #N/A #N/A
5.75363E+16 8.41696E+16 #N/A #N/A #N/A
VIF 1.683576215

INTERPRETATION
• Vif 349.2800283>10 so there is multiollinearity.
• Vif is 31.94110208>10 so there is multiollinearity.
• Vif is 70.0019131>10 so there is multiollinearity.
• Vif is 362.1547899>10 so there is multiollinearity
• Vif is 1.683576215 >10 so there is NO multiollinearity
Heteroskedasticity
Personal
GDP import exports GGFCE Taxes remittances
1.45E+12 7.05E+10 8.48E+10 3.03E+11 39000000 9741087205
1.5E+12 7.49E+10 9E+10 3.06E+11 38000000 10021054778
1.49E+12 9.12E+10 1.06E+11 3.17E+11 24000000 9446332527
1.37E+12 8.46E+10 9.67E+10 3.3E+11 19000000 8869551607
1.38E+12 8.72E+10 1E+11 3.41E+11 7000000 9194240138
1.5E+12 9.48E+10 1.13E+11 3.61E+11 5000000 10599319442
1.84E+12 1.1E+11 1.26E+11 3.77E+11 -5000000 12231755971
2.12E+12 1.26E+11 1.43E+11 3.93E+11 -1.1E+07 13342614138
2.2E+12 1.34E+11 1.53E+11 4.07E+11 73000000 14205076473
2.32E+12 1.46E+11 1.65E+11 4.21E+11 -2.5E+08 15535237652
2.66E+12 1.69E+11 1.97E+11 4.36E+11 -9.8E+07 17586416269
2.93E+12 1.95E+11 2.24E+11 4.5E+11 -1.1E+08 20085696123
2.7E+12 1.76E+11 1.94E+11 4.66E+11 -9.7E+07 19665370194
2.65E+12 1.82E+11 2.02E+11 4.79E+11 -1.1E+08 19898258274
2.87E+12 2.03E+11 2.37E+11 4.89E+11 -1.7E+07 22942280254
2.68E+12 2.03E+11 2.34E+11 5E+11 -1.3E+08 22666366759
2.81E+12 2.28E+11 2.54E+11 5.1E+11 -3.8E+07 24412282153
2.86E+12 2.53E+11 2.73E+11 5.19E+11 -1.2E+08 25358374728
2.44E+12 2.33E+11 2.56E+11 5.23E+11 -1.2E+08 24066989837
2.47E+12 2.37E+11 2.59E+11 5.3E+11 -1.1E+08 24042348847
2.6E+12 2.47E+11 2.75E+11 5.43E+11 -1.3E+08 24884547856
2.79E+12 2.74E+11 3.02E+11 5.5E+11 -1.3E+08 26229274711
2.73E+12 2.69E+11 2.96E+11 5.6E+11 -1.2E+08 26173645645
2.63E+12 2.36E+11 2.55E+11 5.77E+11 0 25141879667

GOLD FELT TEST

GOLD FELT
FIRST PART
- -
156.9197578 447.076367 3.008814 20.45327 27.77027 5.94356E+11
 16.61106557 141.3718325 0.98133 8.569291 8.47153 1.95239E+11
0.996993727 30326245374 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
265.310192 4 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
1.22E+24 3.67872E+21 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

SECOND
PART
- - -
444.5760231 -96.7091697 5.744507 12.61096 28.54689 1.73822E+12
152.0856421 1041.25846 1.545947 6.022266 9.994588 1.86529E+12
0.893576495 74269975490 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
6.717136348 4 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
1.8526E+23 2.20641E+22 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

FIRST RSS 3.67872E+21

SECOND RSS 2.20641E+22
F 5.997762603
TABLE F 2.772853153

F> TABLE F So heteroskedascity is exist

WHITE TEST
Predicted Y Residuals E2 Y2 Predicted Y
1.6302E+12 -1.8E+11 3.14414E+22 2.65756E+24 1.6302E+12
1.65848E+12 -1.6E+11 2.4139E+22 2.75054E+24 1.65848E+12
1.53339E+12 -4E+10 1.61936E+21 2.35129E+24 1.53339E+12
1.44922E+12 -8.4E+10 6.98526E+21 2.10023E+24 1.44922E+12
1.51052E+12 -1.3E+11 1.76515E+22 2.28166E+24 1.51052E+12
1.73628E+12 -2.3E+11 5.51629E+22 3.01466E+24 1.73628E+12
1.80575E+12 3.88E+10 1.50471E+21 3.26075E+24 1.80575E+12
1.86874E+12 2.51E+11 6.29455E+22 3.4922E+24 1.86874E+12
1.87189E+12 3.25E+11 1.0566E+23 3.50397E+24 1.87189E+12
2.28832E+12 3.22E+10 1.03765E+21 5.23643E+24 2.28832E+12
2.41321E+12 2.47E+11 6.11963E+22 5.82359E+24 2.41321E+12
2.6028E+12 3.27E+11 1.07256E+23 6.77459E+24 2.6028E+12
2.39104E+12 3.1E+11 9.60036E+22 5.71709E+24 2.39104E+12
2.45087E+12 1.94E+11 3.77575E+22 6.00679E+24 2.45087E+12
2.8722E+12 -7E+09 4.96443E+19 8.24955E+24 2.8722E+12
2.91877E+12 -2.4E+11 5.52713E+22 8.51922E+24 2.91877E+12
2.7538E+12 5.81E+10 3.37239E+21 7.58344E+24 2.7538E+12
2.67864E+12 1.77E+11 3.14423E+22 7.17514E+24 2.67864E+12
2.69415E+12 -2.5E+11 6.50059E+22 7.25845E+24 2.69415E+12
2.6759E+12 -2E+11 4.11843E+22 7.16046E+24 2.6759E+12
2.85247E+12 -2.6E+11 6.6214E+22 8.1366E+24 2.85247E+12
2.86653E+12 -7.6E+10 5.71077E+21 8.21697E+24 2.86653E+12
2.83984E+12 -1.1E+11 1.23141E+22 8.06469E+24 2.83984E+12
2.62356E+12 6.76E+09 4.57194E+19 6.88305E+24 2.62356E+12

SUMMARY
OUTPUT

Regression
Statistics
0.4183298
Multiple R 93
R Square 0.1749999
Adjusted R 0.0964284
Square 62
Standard 3.28491E+
Error 22
Observation
s 24

ANOVA
Significan
df SS MS F ce F
4.81E+4 2.4E+4 2.2272
Regression 2 5 5 71 0.132668
2.27E+4 1.08E+
Residual 21 6 45
2.75E+4
Total 23 6

Coefficient Standar Lower Upper Lower Upper

s d Error t Stat P-value 95% 95% 95.0% 95.0%
- -
3.63116E+ 0.0696 3.19E+ 7.6E+2 3.19E+
Intercept 23 1.9E+23 -1.9117 57 -7.6E+23 22 3 22
 - - -
0.0848403 0.04105 2.0667 0.0513 0.0005 0.1702 0.0005
X Variable 1 91 1 3 1 -0.17021 29 1 29
3.78697E+ 1.81E+1 2.0923 0.0487 7.55E+ 2.31E+ 7.55E+
X Variable 2 11 1 66 33 2.31E+09 11 09 11

Interpretation
There is no heteroskedescity in data.

BRUSH PAGAN TEST

SUMMARY
OUTPUT

Regression
Statistics
0.1965390
Multiple R 12
0.0386275
R Square 83
-
Adjusted R 0.1637666
Square 1
Standard 3.72799E+
Error 22
Observation
s 24

ANOVA
Significan
df SS MS F ce F
1.06E+4 2.65E+4 0.1908 0.940215
Regression 4 5 4 53 05
2.64E+4 1.39E+4
Residual 19 6 5
2.75E+4
Total 23 6

Coefficient Standar Lower Upper Lower Upper

s d Error t Stat P-value 95% 95% 95.0% 95.0%
 - - - -
4.12436E+ 1.05E+2 0.0392 0.9690 2.238E+2 2.16E+ 2.2E+2 2.16E+
Intercept 21 3 9 71 3 23 3 23
- - -
1.74654E+ 2.14E+1 0.8171 0.4239 2.73E+ 6.2E+1 2.73E+
X Variable 1 12 2 9 47 -6.22E+12 12 2 12
-
1.50708E+ 1.87E+1 0.8073 0.4294 5.41E+ 2.4E+1 5.41E+
X Variable 2 12 2 64 49 -2.4E+12 12 2 12
-
1.09413E+ 4.37E+1 0.2505 0.8048 8.046E+1 1.02E+ 1.02E+
X Variable 3 11 1 46 54 1 12 -8E+11 12
- - - -
2.50921E+ 1.28E+1 0.1967 0.8461 2.921E+1 2.42E+ 2.9E+1 2.42E+
X Variable 4 13 4 2 37 4 14 4 14

Interpretation
There is no heteroskedescity in data