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PH daily COVID tally might decline to 500 by end-March: OCTA Research

Gillan Ropero, ABS-CBN News

Mar 07 2022 03:18 PM

People walk in the business district of Makati City on March 3, 2022 as the Philippines eases quarantine
rules, with many workers returning to work. Jonathan Cellona, ABS-CBN News

People walk in the business district of Makati City on March 3, 2022 as the Philippines eases quarantine
rules, with many workers returning to work. Jonathan Cellona, ABS-CBN News

MANILA - The Philippines' daily COVID-19 tally might decrease to 500 by end of March or early next
month despite the slowing of infections' downward trend, independent research group OCTA said
Monday.

Some areas such as Puerto Princesa City in Palawan and Iloilo City are still classified as "moderate risk"
for the respiratory disease due to "moderate" healthcare utilization rate, according to the OCTA's Guido
David.

"Inaasahan nating patuloy pa rin itong bababa by end of March. Baka mga a few hundreds na lang yan,
300 to 500, tulad nung nakita natin nung December last year bago pumasok ang omicron," he said in a
televised public briefing.

(We're expecting this to continue to decline by end of March. It might be only a few hundreds, 300 to
500, just like what we saw December last year before omicron entered the country.)

"Para patuloy ang pagbaba ng bilang ng kaso, kailangan pa rin sumunod tayo sa minimum public health
standards. Yan ang isa sa mga rason bakit mabilis bumaba ang bilang ng kaso natin nung nakaraang
buwan at mga linggo."
(We still need to follow minimum public health standards so cases continue to decline. That's one of the
reasons why our virus cases the past months and weeks decreased.)

It is also important for the public to get booster shots, David said.

"Yung immunity bumaba din siya over time kahit na-vaccinate o na-expose na tayo. So maganda
syempre, magpa-booster din ang mga kababayan natin para additional layer of protection against
infection," he said.

(Our immunity wanes over time even if you were vaccinated or exposed. So it's better to get a booster
shot for an additional layer of protection against infection.)

There are no signs yet of a resurgence after Metro Manila and 38 other areas were placed under Alert
Level 1, according to David.

Metro Manila, 38 other areas to shift to Alert Level 1 starting March 1 - Palace

"Continuously mino-monitor natin 'pag magkaroon ng trend, 'wag naman sana, pero sinasabi natin
binabantayan natin ang numbers," he said.

(We continuously monitor new trends, the numbers.)

"Mababa pa rin pero bumagal lang ang pagbaba. Medyo nagpa-plateua nang konti ang numbers pero
hopefully makita natin magtuloy-tuloy."

(The number of cases is still low but its decline has slowed. The numbers have plateaued but hopefully it
continues to decline.)

Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire had said that any effect of the Alert Level 1 imposition
will be seen "in about 10 to 14 days" later.
But the Department of Health's move to release weekly COVID-19 figures to focus more on severe and
critical cases would affect the group's monitoring of infections, David said.

COVID case bulletin to focus on severe, critical cases; to be released weekly

"Sa'min, it will affect syempre yung monitoring namin kasi baka 'di na namin makita ang ibang trends.
We're going to lose visibility. Sa ngayon, 'di naman malaking factor yan. Pero 'di natin masasabi kung
magkaroon ng new variant, 'wag naman sana," he said.

(For us, it will affect our monitoring because we might not see other trends. We're going to lose
visibility. For now, it's not a huge factor. But we can't say for sure when there would be a new variant.
Hopefully, there won't be any.)

"Sa'kin, wala namang masama na nakikita natin ang datos. At least, kung nakikita natin mababa talaga
ang numbers, 'yung mga kababayan natin, they will have more confidence to go out and enjoy this new
normal."

(For me, there's nothing wrong in showing data. If we can see the numbers are really low, the public will
have more confidence to go out and enjoy this new normal.)

Lawmakers previously criticized OCTA Research over the accuracy of its COVID-19 projections. The group
has said it uses data from the DOH.

The Philippines has recorded a total of 3,667,542 COVID-19 cases, as of Sunday, of which 48,793 are
active. Its first confirmed infection was logged on Jan. 30, 2020.

More than 63 million people in the country have been fully vaccinated against the coronavirus, and
some 62 million others have received their first dose, as of Feb. 27, data monitored by the ABS-CBN
Investigative and Research Group showed.