TONG CUC KHI TUONG THUY VAN TRUNG TAM QUOC GIA DU BAO KTTV DAC DIEM KHi TUONG THUY VAN NAM 2002 HA NOI 2003TRUNG TAM DU BAO KHi TUONG THUY VAN TRUNG UONG CENTERE FOR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECASTING- NHMS S64. Dang Thai Than Tel. (844) 8244916 Ha Noi, Viét Nam Fax. (844) 8254278 MUC LUC 1. Khai quat tinh hinh thoi Get thiiy van nam 2002 1.1, Dac diém chung vé tinh hinh thoi tiét 1.2, Dac diém chung vé tinh hin thily van ac diém hoat dong khong khi lanh nam 2002 2.1. Tinh hinh chung 2.2. Dién bién cdc dot KKL dinh hudng dén Viet Nam nam 2002 ‘ay bie Thai Binh Duong val Dac diém hoat dong cita bao, ATND 6 T Bién Dong nam 2002 3.1. Dac diém hoat dong clit bilo va ATND tren khu vue Tay bic ‘Thai Binh Duong 3.2. Dac diém hoat dong cia bilo va ATND tren Bién Dong 3.3. Bao va ATND dinh hung dé Viet Nam 3.4. Cong tie du bao bio nam 2002 4, Dién bigh nhiét do nam 2002 4.1, Nhiet do trung binh 4.2. Nhiet do thiip nl va hién tugng rét dam, rét hai i vit hign tong nding néng . Dien bien mua 5.1. Dac diém chung 5.2. Die diém ce dot mua vita, mus to dign rong nam 2002 La tut, ing ngap 6.1, SO tran Li 6.2. Mue nude cao nhat nam 2002 6 ong chinh 6.3. Mot s6 tran 10: 16n nhat nam 2002 tren ea 6.4. La quét 2002 6.5. Nhimg dae diém chinh cla mix 1d 2002 7. ‘Thict hai do cdc hign tuong tha tiét, thiiy van nguy hiém nam 2002 8. Ket luan Chu thich: Anh bia 1: Loc kem mua da toi 3/4/2002 6 Lap Thach (Vinh Phi Anh bia 2: Liv quét 6 Huong Son (Ha Tinh) ngay 19/9/2002 ‘Trang 3 Scie ess 14 16 17 1g 18 18 231. KHAI QUAT TINH HiNH THO! TIET THUY VAN NAM 2002 Nam 2002 tinh hinh khi tong thiy van trong pham vi ci nue ¢6 nhiéu bien dong Khiic thudng, 14 nam 6 nénnhiet do cao hon trung binh nhiéu nam (TBNN) va tong luong mua nhiéu noi thiéu but gay han hén nghiém trong. Mac di s6 lvong bio, ATND hoat dong tren khu vue Bién Dong ft hon TBNN, khong c6 con bio, ATND nao anh hudng truc tiép dén nuGe ta song do tinh di thudng vé mat khi hau in big, thoi tiét thay van nam 2002 kha phifc tap. 1.1. Dac diém chung vé tinh hinh thoi tiét. Nam 2002 c6 27 dot khong hf lanh Anh hudng dén thoi tiét nuGe ta, it hon TBNN kho’ing 3 dot, d0i v6i cdc tinh mién Bac 1a naim thi ba lién tigp c6 mia dong twong d6i dim. Hoat dong gid mt tay nam va mia mua trong pham vi cd nuée xay ra phi hop véi quy luat, song hu hét cde noi c6 lugng mua nam thap hon nhiéu so véi TBNN. Do vay han han nghiem trong kéo dai 6 Nam Trung Bo, Nam Bo, Tay Nguyen, mot s6 noi & Bac Bo, Bac va Trung Trung BO gay nhiéu thiet hai dén san xudt va ddi sng. Trong 6 con bilo va. 4 ATND hoat dong tren khu vue Bién Dong chi c6 | ATND anh huéng Bac BO gay mua vita mua to. Nhu vay nim 2002 14 nam it bio nh hudng hiém thay trong chudi sO ligu nhiéu nam, sau nam 1976 Negoai ra nm 2002 nhiéu thién tai nhu té I6e, mua dé xay ra nhiéu noi 6 ving nti Bic BO, Bic Trung Bo va Nam Bo gay thiét hai nghiém trong. 1.2. Dac diém chung vé tinh hinh thity yan. Nam 2002 da xy ra 24 dot mua vita mua to dién rong do hoat dong manh ciia gid mia dong nam Chau A va nhiéu nguyén nhan khdc ma trén Iuu vue song Héng, mot so song mién Trung, song Citu Long da xdy ra Iii Ini © Cudi thang VII, dau thing VIII 6 Bic BO hau hét céc song tren hé thong song Héng, song Thai Binh da xay ra Ii 16n tren mic bdo dng IIT tir 0,25 dén 0,50 m. Song Héng tai HA Noi e6 mute nuéic cao nhat 12,3 m dimg vao hang thi 8 trong chudi s6 ligu quan tric duge. © Nita cudi thang 1X da xy ra Id én d6i vdi cae tinh mién Trung vugt mifc bao dong IHL tir F dén 2 meét, dac biét tir 17 dén LOX da xdy ra Ii lich sit tai Son Diem tren song Ngan Pho (Ha Tinh) gay t6n that nghiém trong vé ngud ‘an. Tren hé thong song Citu Long cing xuat hign 10 In (10 kép) kéo dai v6i myc nude dinh Ia tong dung nam 200! déng thai gay ngAp lut noi déng sinh hung nghiem trong dén doi sng va san xudt cia nhan dan trong Khu vuc. RG rang nim 2002 cing 1A mot trong nhiing n&im c6 thd tiét thiiy van: phic tap va c6 nhiéu dac biet mang tinh di thudng. Trung tam Du bao Khé tuong Thus vin Trung wong2. DAC DIEM HOAT DONG KHONG KHi LANH (KKL) NAM 2002. 2.1. Tinh hinh chung. Nam 2002 da c6 27 dot KKL xam nhap xu6ng mign Bic nude ta bao gém 14 dot gid miia dong bic va 13 dot KKL tang cudng. Phan bé cdc dot KKL theo thd gian duoc trinh bay trong Bang 1 Bang 1. Phan bo cac dot KKL theo thang trong nam 2002 Thang I ae m | m7) Vv | XY] X | Xt | Xl | Canam So dot s 3 3: 2 2 1 A: 5: 4 27 Hoat dong KKL nam 2002 chit yéu tap trung 3 thang dau nam va 3 thang cudi nam y6i 23 dot chiém ti le 85% so dot KKL trong nam. Trong cic thing VI, VII, VII nam 2002 mac diiu vin c6 hoat dong cua KKL nhung khong anh huong truc tigp dén nude ta. Trong s6 cic dot KKL g6m c6: 14 dot manh, 6 dot trung binh, va 7 dot yeu. C6 4 dot KKL anh huéng gay ra rét dam, rét hai, tap trung chu yéu vio céc thang I, II, XI va XIL Nhiét d9 thaip nhat trong nam 6 hau hét cdc noi déu xay ra vio thoi ky nay. Dac biet vao ngiy 26/XII mot dot KKL manh két hgp véi hoat dong ca ranh gid tay tren cao da gay ra mua 6 nhiéu noi, rai réc mua vita, c6 noi mua to 6 Bac BO. Dot KKL nay cing da gay ra dot rét dam, rét hai kéo dai nhat trong nam véi nén nhiét do trung binh phé bién trong khong 10-13 dd, mot s6 roi c6 nén nhiét do thap hon (8 ngay trong dé c6 6 ngay c6 rét hai), riéng ngay 27/XII nhiet do trung binh ngay tai khu vuc dong bing Bac BO phé bién 8-10 do, ving ndi 5-7 do, mot sé noi nhigt dO thap nhat gidm xudng xp xi 0.d6 va da xay ra bang gid, tuyét roi ndi Mau Son, Binh Loc, Lang Son dem 26, rang ngiy 27/XII, tuyét roi day 1-2 cm (cin chi ¥ ring day 14 dgt rét dae trung nhat trong nam 2002 va hiém thay trong chudi s6 ligu nhiéu nam v6i thoi gian rét kéo dai lien tue 18 ngay cho dén tan ngay 12 thang I nam 2003 va da xay ra tuyét roi & nhiéu noi thude ving niii phia bac Bic Bo vao nhimg ngay dau nam 2003 2.2. Dién bién cac dot KKL anh huéng dén Viét Nam nam 2002. - Dot 1 (GMBB cudng dé manh): Dem 18 ngay 19/1 khong khi lanh manh kem theo front lanh di chuyén cham xung phia nam va anh hudng dén phia dong Bic Bo, ngiy 20/1 anh hung dén toin Bic Bo, Bic vi Trung Trung Bd. Do inh hung ciia khong khi lanh & phia dong Bic BO dai e6 muta nhé rai rée, ede tinh Bite va Trung Trung § mura va gidm 5 - 6°C 6 phia dong = 4°C 6 Bae Trung BO (Ty tai Ha Noi: 14,9°C, Lang Son: 10,5°C, Sa Pa: 3,5°C, °C, Vinh: 14,3°C). Do qué trinh di chuyén cham cita khong khi lanh 6 Bach Long Vi manh dan lén 12 - 15 m/s va duy tri trong 2 ngay (20 va 21/1). = Dut 2(KKLTC ewing do manh): Chiéu va dem 25/1 khong khi lanh ting cudng ‘manh xuéng Bic BO va khu bn ci. Do anh huéng két hop véi hoat dong cita dong xiét trong déi gid tay tren cao nén 6 Bac BO 6 mua, mua ro nhe & nhiéu noi va c6 noi C6 nis!dong, cée tinh khu bGn cii c6 mua va mua nhé rdi-rde. Khong khi lanh tang cudng két hgp véi mua nh6 kéo dai da gay ra mot dgt rét dam va rét hai dau tien 6 Bac Bo va Bac Trung BO. Nhiét do tung binh ngay 6 Bac BO giim 4-5°C (phd bién khodng 12-14°C). Tp Lang Son: 7,7°C, SaPa: 3,0°C, Ha Noi: 10,7°C, Moc Chau: 6,1°C, Thanh Hoa: 11,0°C, Vinh: 13,3°C. Dot rét dam nay kéo dai ti ngdy 24 - 28/T (c6 2 ngdy rét hai 26 va 27/). Gid dong bac Vinh Bic Bo manh cap 6 - 7, giat 16 m/s va duy tri trong 24 gid. - Dot 3 (KKLTC cudng dé trung binh): Dem 27 ngdy 28/1 khong khi lanh tang cudng xudng phia nam. Do anh hudng ciia khong khf lanh tng cutng 6 cc tinh Bic BO c6 mua nhé vai noi, Bic Trung BO c6 mua va mua nhé r: Khong khi lanh tuy khong gay bién di 16n vé nén nhiet do 6 Bac Bo va Khu Bon cil nhumg duy tri cho dot rét dam kéo dai them. Gié dong bac 6 Vinh Bic BO va ngoai khoi Bc Trung BO manh en cip 6 va kéo dai trong vong 21 gid. - Dot 4 (KKLTC cudng dé manh): Ngay va dém 1/1] khong khi lanh tang cudng xuding cic tinh Bic BO va khu bén cd, Do anh hudng két hgp v6i dong. xiét trong 6 lay tren cao gay ra mua nhiéu noi 6 Bac BO (phé bign trong khong 3-7 mm, mot 18 mm, Quang Ha: 15 mm, Méng Cai: 14 mm); mua nhé rai rac & khu bin ci. Gid dong bic & Bach Long Vi lai manh len 12-15m/ 22m/s duy tri trong khoang thi gian 27 gid. Nhiet do trung binh ngay gitim 2-3 dd (AT;, Ha Noi: 4,1°C ). Rét dam xy ra & Bac BO va Bic Trung BO kéo dai tir IAI dén 4/1l (c6 hai ngay c6 rét hai: ngay 1 va 4/11). T,, Lang Son: 9,0°C, SaPa: 4,6°C, Ha Noi: 11,9°C, Mong Cai: 9,8°C, Thanh H6a: 13,2°C, Vinh: 12,3°C. - Dot 5 (KKLTC cuéng dé yéu): Dém 4 ngiy 5/IT khong khi lanh tang cudng xudng Bac BO va Bac Trung Bo, gay ra mua nhé nhiéu noi & phfa dong Bic Bo va Bac ‘Trung Bo. Nhi¢ binh ngay hiu nhw it thay déi. Gid dong bic 6 Vinh Bac Bo lai manh lén ip 6 va duy tri trong khoing thé gian ngin 3 gid. kém theo front lanh anh hudng dén Bic BO sau d6 anh hudng dén Bic va Trung Trung Bo, gay ra mua 6 nhiéu noi véi Ivgng mua pho bién tir 2-5 mm (mot s6 noi cao hon: Phi Ly: 12 mm, KS Anh: 18 mm), Do gui trinh di chuyén nhanh otia khong Kf lanh xudng a i Vi manh ep 6, 6 lic cap 7, giat 16 ins. Nhigt 40 trung fant Bet gidm 1-2 do & Bac Bo va Bac Trung BO (AT,,HA Ndi: 1,4°C). - Dot 7 (GMPB cwong dé manh): Ngay vi dem S/Ill khong khi lank manh kém theo front lanh tran qua cae tinh thude phia dong Bic BO, Bic Trung BO va mot s6 noi Trung Trung BO va mot Nam Trung BO. Khong khi lanh gay 6 ba] Bo, mua nhiéu noi 6 céc tinh ven bien Trung Bo Se Khé: ic Bo gidm 3-5 do ae HA Noi: 3,5°O), gidm 5-6 do 6 5 Thing BO. T,, Ha Noi: 17,0°C, Lang : 13,7'C, Thanh Héa; 16,9°C, Vinh: 16,2°C. Gid dong bac 6 Vinh Bac BO va ngoai khoi Trung BO manh 12-15 m/s, giat 18 m/s, duy ti 30 gid. = Dot 8 (KKLTC eutong do trung bink): Ngdy va dém 17/111 khong khé lanh kem theo duéng dift di chuyén xuéng phia nam va anh hung dén phfa dong Bac BO va Bic Trung BO gay ra mua va mua nh rai réc véi long mua phé bién 0,5-3 mm (Tien Yen: 6 mm, F g: 43 mm). Nhi¢t do trung binh ngay 6 Bic BO gidm 5-6 do (AT., Ha Dw ra mua rNoi: 6,2°C), Bic Trung BO giim 3-5 do. T,,, Ha Ndi: 17,5°C, Lang Son: 15,0°C, Thanh Héa: 17,0°C, Vinh: 17,7°C. Gid dong bic 6 Bach Long Vi manh 12 m/s, kéo dai 18 gids. - Dot 9 (GMBB cudng do yéu): Ngdy va dem 23/L1 khong khf lanh kém theo front lanh_ nén dai thap di chuyén xudng phia nam va anh hung dén phia dong Bac BO sau dé dén Bic Trung Bo. Khong khi lanh da gay ra mua va mua nho & phia dong Bic BO, c6 mua va mua vita 6 Bac Trung Bo (Ha Tinh: 114 mm, Déng Hoi: 55 mm, Ky Anh: 46 mm, Ba Dén: 43 mm, Tuyén Hod: 35: mm). Nhiét do trung binh ngay gidm 2-3°C (AT, Ha Noi: 1,2°C). Tm Ha NOi: 21,0°C, Lang Son: 16,0°C, Thanh Héa: 21,2°C, Vinh: 20.4°C. Bach Long Vi gid dong bac 10 m/s va duy tri trong thdi gian ngan 6 gi’. - Dot 10 (GMBB cuong dé manh); Dem 9 ngay 1O/LV khong khi lanh manh kem theo front lanh tran qua Bic Bo, Bic Trung BO va mot s6 noi thuge Trung Trung BO. Khong khi lanh ket hop véi hoi tu gid tren cao da gay ra muta, muta ro va C6 noi e6 : 25 mm), Bic va muta vita, ¢6 noi mua to va dong (Ha Tinh: 75 mm, Déng H6i: 62 mm, Hué: 34 mm, A Lui: 50 mm, Tra My: 40 mm), Nhiét d9 trung binh ngiy 6 Bac BO giim 4 - 6 do (ATs, Ha Noi: 5,5°C), Bac va Trung Trung BO gidm 6- 8 d0. T,, Ha Noi: 16.9°C, Lang Son: 12,0°C, SaPa: 9,6°C, Méng Cai: 13,4°C, Tien Yen: 12,6°C. Bach Long Vi gid dong bic 12 - 15 mfs, giat 18 m/s va kéo dai trong 24 gid. - Dot 11 (GMBB cuéng dé yéu): Dem 17 ngay 18/1V khong khé tanh yéu kem theo front lanh di chuyén cham xudng phia nam anh hudng yéu dén thdi tiét cae tinh phia dong Bac BO va Bic Trung BO. Khong khi lanh yu da gay ra mura, mua ro rai rée va mot s6 noi c6 dong ¢ Bic BO va Bie Trung BO (HA Ndi: 49 mm, Cao Bing: 19 mm, Huong Khé: 11 mm, That Khé: 13 mm). Nhiet 49 trung binh ngay 6 phia dong Bac Bo gid 3- 5°C (AT, Ha Noi 4,4°C), 6 Bic Trung BO gidim 2 - 4°C, nhiét d6 16i cao gid 7-9 dO va chim dit dot nang nong 6 khu vue nay. Bach Long Vi gid dong bac 10 m/s kéo dai 6 giv. = Dot 12 (GMBB cudng do yéu): Nedy 14/V khong khi lanh yéu kém theo dudng dit nén ranh thap di chuyén xudng phia nam Anh huéng dén phia dong Bic BO va Thanh Ha da gay ra mua vita dén mua to, lung mua phé bién trong ngay 14/V 1 15 - 30 mm. Mot s6 noi c6 long mua kha nhu Mung Te: 77 mm, Ha Giang: 112 mm, Cao Bing: 106 mm, Méng Cai: 121 mm, Sa Pa: 87 mm, Bic Can: 99 mm.... Nhiét do tung binh hiedy gidm 4 - 5 4 (ATyy HA NOt: 5,7°C). Ty tai Lang Son: 19,7°C, Sa Pa: 167°C, Ha Noi: 22,4°C. Gid dong bac & Vinh Bic Bo manh eaip 5, c6 Itc ep 6 va duy ti trong thoi gian ngan 3 giv. - Dot 13 (KKLTC cudng do yéu): Chigu va dem 24/V khong khé lanh tang cu’ng yéu nén ranh thép di chuyén xuéng phia nam anh hung dén hau hét cdc tinh thuge Bic Bo va Bic Trung Bo, gay ra mua va mua vita, mOt sO noi c6 mua to dén rit to va dong. Luong mua pho bién tir 15 - 30 mm (Pho Giang: 64 mm, Ha Giang: 112 mm, Bic Ninh: 139 mm, Ky Anh: 187 mm, Déng Héi: 94 mm). nhiet do trung binh ngay giam 3 - 4 d6 (AT, Ha Noi: 3,9°C). Ty, H& NOi: 22,9°C, Lang Son: 21,4°C, Sa Pa: 12,9°C, Thanh Héa 23,7°C, Vinh: 23,6°C. Bach Long Vi gid dong bic manh cap 5, 6 Iie caip 6 va duy tri trong 3 gid.kém theo front lanh anh hudng dén Bac BO, Bic va mOt s6 noi thude Trung Trung Khong khi lanh da ga rai rac c6 dong & Bic BO, Ivong mua pl bign ttr 5-10 mm, mot s6 noi Iwong mua In hon nhu; Moc Chau: 64,5 mm, Lang Son: 31 mm, Nho Quan: 61 mm. Céc tinh Bic Trung BO do két hop véi ria phia bic ctia dai hOi ty nhigt déi (ITCZ) da c6 mua vita dén_ muta to (Con Cudng: 34,6 mm, Khe sanh: 74,9 mm, A Ludi 63,4 mm). Nhiét do trung binh ngay 6 Bic BO giim 3-4 do, Bic Trung Bo gitm 2-3 do (Tq Lang Son: 19,9°C, Sa Pa: 12,4°C, Bic Ninh: 20,0'C, Ha Noi: 23,0°C). Gié dong bac ¢ Bach Long Vy dat 12 - 15 m/s, gidt 18 m/s va kéo dai 54 gic. - Dot 15 (GMDB cudng dé manh): Bem 5 ngdy 6/X khong khi lanh voi cu’ng do manh kém theo front lanh di chuyén xudng phia nam anh huGng dén Bac BO, Bac va Trung Trung BO, mot s6 noi thuge Nam Trung BO. Do anh huéng cla khong khi lanh & Bac BO di cé mua va mua vita, cé noi mua to va dong v6i wong mua pho bién tir 15 - 30 mm (Lai chau: 76,3 mm, Van Chin: 44,5 mm, Thai Binh: 63,8 mm, Nam Dinh: 63.9 mm, Lang: 41,4 mm), Trung BO c6 mua vita dén mua to, c6 noi mua rit to (Héi Xuan: 108 mm, Ba Don: 112.5 mm, Déng Héi: 106,7 mm, Nam Dong: 341,8 mm, Hué: 170,5 mm, Da Nang: 122 mm). Bach Long Vi gid dong bic manh 12 - 15 m/s, giat 18 m/s kéo dai 27 gi’, Nhiét do trung binh ngdy Bic BO giim 3 - 4 do (AT, Ha Noi: 3,4°C), Trung Bo gidm 3 - 5 do (T, giim 5 - 6 dO). T,, 6 Bic Ha: 03°C, ‘Thal Khé: 13,6°C, Bic Can: 13.8°C, Ha Noi: 20,0°C, Thanh Héa: 20,3°C, Vinh: 23,2°C. - Dot 16 (GMDB cudng dé trung binh): Dem 20 ngdy 21/X khong khi lanh kem theo front lanh anh hung den Bic Bo va Bic Trung zo Khong khf lanh da gay ra mua, mua ro va dong nhiéu noi 6 phia dong ty Bic Bo va Bac Trung BO. Luong mua phé bign ae khodng 20-40 mm, m 6 Iwong mua kha hon nhu; Lang Son: 88,4 mm, Tuyén Quang: 108,5 mm, Hai duong: 143.9 mm, Ninh Binh: 66,6 mm, Tinh Gia: 80,0 mm, Tuyen Héa: 78,5 mm. Nhiét do trung binh ngay giam 6 - 8°C & phia dong Bac Bo (AT;, Ha Noi: 7.1% a Bac Trung BO giim 3 - 5°C. T,, 6 Sa Pa: 14,8°C, Lang Son: 17,0°C, Ha Noi: va Thanh Héa: 22,2°C. Gid dong bic 6 Bach Long Vi manh caip 6 va kéo dai trong 6 gid. + Dot 17 (KKLTC cuong dé manh): Dem 22 ngay 23/X khong khi lanh tang cudng v6i cudng do manh anh hudng dén Bac BO sau dé tiép tuc anh huéng dén Bac va Trung Trung BO. Khong khi lanh tang cuéng da gay ra mua 6 nhiéu noi, mot s6 noi cé mua vita va dong 6 Bie BO véi lugng mua phd bién 3-10 mm (Tuan Gido: 65,0 mm, Quynh Nhai: 58 mm, Than Uyen: 29 mm, Van Chin: 34,9 mm); 6 Bic va Trung Trung c6 mua vita dén mua to, Mot s6 noi mua rat fo va dong (Cita Rao: 73,7 mm, Hon 167,4 mm, Vinh: 145,7 mm, Ha Tinh: 266,6 mm, Tuyén Héa: 152,8 mm, Dong Nhi¢t do trung binh ngay 6 phia dong Bic BO giim 1- 2 do, phia tay ic Trung BO gia 3 - do (T,, 6 Sa Pa: 11,4°C, Lang Son: 16,3°C, Ha Noi: 19,0°C, Thanh Héa: 19,0°C, Vinh: 19,0°C). Gidé dong bic & Vinh Bac BO va ngoai khoi Trung Bo lai manh len céip 6 - 7, giat 20 m/s va kéo dai 24 gid. - Dot 18 (GMDB cuong do yeu): Sang sém ngay 30/X khong khi lanh yéu kem theo dudng dvit anh hudng dén phia dong 9, dem 30 va ngay 31/X anh huéng dén i mOLS6 noi thudc Trung Trung B6. Khong Khi lanh yéu két hop véi déi gid dong bic day da gay ra mua vita dén mua to, mot sé noi mua rat to va dong (Hung Yen: 89,4 mm, Thai Binh: 80,5 mm, Nam Dinh: 41,5 mm, Van Ly: 135,2 mm, Ha Tinh: 84,6 mm, Huong Khé: 101 mm). Nhiét 46 trung binh ngay & phia dong Bic BO giiim5-7"C, T, gidm 7-9°C (AT,, Ha Noi: 6,1°C); bie Trung BO giim 2- 4°C. T,,, 6 Lang Son: 16,8°C, Méng : 19,5°C, Ha Noi: 20,0°C, Thanh Héa: 21,4°C. Gid dong bac 6 Vinh Bic BO manh ep 5 va duy ti trong khodng thoi gian 18 gid. = Dat 19 (KKLTC cwong do manh): Ngiy va dem 1/X1 khong khf lanh tang eudng g phia dong Bic BO. Ngay 2/XI_ khong khi lanh anh huong dén phia tay Bac tinh ven bién Trung BO. Khong khi lan tang cudng da gay ra mua nhé vai noi 6 Bic BO, cdc tinh ven bién Trung BO 4% 6 mua vita dén mula to, mOt s6 noi musa rat 10 va dong (Huong Khé: 128 mm, Déng Hoi: 155,1 mm, Dong Ha: 214 mm, Hué: 96 mm, Da Ning: 118 mm, Tam Ky: 130 mm). Nén nhiet dO trung binh ngdy & khong dang ké nhung nhiet do t6i thap giim khd manh 5 - 7°C (T, Pa: 7.2°C, Lang Son 11,5°C, Ha Noi: 17,2°C, Thanh Héa: 19.2°C, Vinh: Trung BO gidm 2 - 3°C. Gié dong bac & Vinh Bic BO va ngoai khoi Trung Bo manh ciip 6-7, gidt 18 m/s va duy tri trong 60 giv ~ Dat 20 (GMPB ewig do manh): Dem 15 ngay 16/X1 Khong khf tanh: man i Trung Bo. Thing Bo di mua vita, mot s6 noi c6 mua to vA dong (Moc Chau: 22,2 mm, Phi Ly: 37,3 mm, Thai Binh: 25,3 mm, Thanh Héa: 35,2 mm, Quynh Luu: 37,1 mm, HUE: 37.4 mm. Tri My: 106.9 mm). Nhiet 4 trung binh ngay gidm 5 - 7 d9 6 Bic BO (AT,, Ha Noi: 53°C): 6 - 8 do & ven bién Trung Bo (T,, SaPa: 9.9°C, Moc Chau: 12,4°C, Lang Son: 15,3"C, Ha Noi: 168°C, Thanh Hoa: 18,0°C). Bach Long Vi gié dong bic _manh cap 6 - 7, gidt 16 m/s va duy tri trong vong 12 gid - Dat 21 (KKLTC cuong dé manh: Chiéu t6i va dém 20/XI khong khi lanh tang citing manh xudng céc tinh thudc phia dong Bic BO. Ngay 21/XT khong khi lanh di Anh hudng dén Bac, Trung Trung BO vi mot s6 noi thudc phia tay Bric BO. Do anh hung két hop vdi dong xiét trong déi gié tay trén cao da gay ra mua, Mot SO noi C6 mua vita & phia dong ic va Trung Trung BO c6 mua va mira vira, MOt sO nai C6 muta to (Phi LY: 20,6 mm, Nam Dinh: 19.6.1, Vinhs 68.3 mm, Ha Tinh 2.0°C). Ty Cao Bing: 14,0°C, | : 6. "°C, ite Yen: 15,0°C, Thanh H6a: 16,7'C. Vinh Bac BO va ngoai khoi Trung BO gid dong bic manh 12 - 15 m/s, git 17 m/s va duy tr] trong 24 gid. - Dot 22 (KKLTC cuong dé manh): Nedy va dém 24/X1 khong kh{ lanh tang cudng manh xudng céc tinh thude phfa dong Bic BO va Bic Trung BO, ngay 25/XI anh huéng dén phia tay Bic Bo, Trung Trung BO va m9t sO noi thugc Nam Trung Bo. Khong khf lanh tang cutng da gay ra mua va mua nhd & Bac BO, ven bién Trung BO c6 mura va mura vira, mOt sO noi cé mua to dén rat to (Cén Cd: 55,1 mm, Hué: 53,2 mm, Nam Dong: 45,1 mm, Da Ning: 50,0 mm, Tam Ky: 101,9 mm). Nhiét do trung binh nj giim 1- 2°C 6 phfa dong Bic BO va ven bién Trung B6, riéng céc tinh thud khu tay bic Bic BO giim 4 - 5°C (T,, Sin Hé: 10,4°C, Sa Pa: 7,4°C, Cao Bing: 134°C, Lang Son: 13,5°C, Ha Ndi: 17,5°C, Thanh Héa: 17,6°C, Vinh: 16,8°C). Bach Long Vi gid dong bic manh 12-15 m/s, giat 17 m/s va duy ti trong 30 gid.- Dot 23 (KKLTC cuéng dé trung bink): Ngay va dem 26/X1 khong khé lanh tang cudng xuéng Bie BO va ven bién Trung b9. Do inh hudng két hop voi dong xiét trong déi gio tay tren cao da gay ra muta 6 Bac Bo va Bic Trung BO, riéng phia tay Bac BO mot sO noi 6 mua vita. Cac tinh ven bién Trung va Nam Trung BO c6 mua vira, cé noi mura to (Sin Hé: 68 mm, Sa Pa: 48 mm, Hué: 48 mm, Tra My: 60 mm, Tam Ky: 60 mm). Khong khi lanh da gay ra rét dim 6 Bac BO tong ngay 27/X1 véi nhiet dO trung binh ngiyy giao dong 12 - 14°C, ving ndi cao nhiét do thap hon, nhiéu noi c6 rét dam, rét h nhigt do trung binh ngay gidm 2-4 do (AT, HA NOi: 3,3°C). Ty, 6 Sin Hé: 8.4°C, Sa Pa: 6.2'C, Lang Son: 11,0°C, Méng Ca 0°C, Vinh: 15,8°C. Bach Long Vi gid dong bi - Dot 24 (GMDB cudng dé manh): Sing sém 8/XIL khong khi lanh manh kém front lanh tran qua phia dong Bic BO, ngiy va dém 8/XII anh hudng dén Bac Trung bd, mOt s6 noi thude phfa tay Bic Bo va Trung Trung BO. Ngay 9/XII khong khi lanh anh BO, Trung va Nam trung BO. 6 Bae Bo cé mua, mot mm, Phi: Lién: 45,6 mm, Nam Dinh: 29,8 mm), cdc tinh ven bién Trung . rai réc mua vita, ¢6 noi mua to dén rat to (Vin 50,0 mm, Ha Tinh: 103.7 mm, Déng Héi: 100,6 mm, Nam Dong: 154,9 mm, "Tra Mt 147,2 mm, Ba To: 166.6 mm), Nhiét d9 trung binh ngay gidm 8 - 10 d0 phia dong Bic Bo (Tx giim 9 - 1] do, AT,, Ha Ndi : 9,8°C); phia tay Bic BO va ven bién Trung BO gitm 4 - 6 do. T,, Sin Hd: 7,5°C, Sa Pa: 5,1°C, Lang Son: 108°C, Méng Cai: 11,7°C Ha 14,8°C, Thai Binh: 11,5°C, Thanh Héa: 14,0°C, Vinh: 14,0°C. Bach Long Vi gi6 dong bac manh eaip 7, giat 20 m/s (Co To: 12 m/s) va kéo dai trong 36h. - Dot 25 (KKLTC cudng do trung binh): Ngdy 11/XIl khong khf lanh ting cudng xu6ng phia dong Bic BO va Bic Trung BO. Ngay 12/XII khong khi lanh inh huong dé phia tay Bac BO, Trung va mot sé noi thugc Nam Trung Bo. Do anh huong két hop véi dong xiet trong di 8 tay t6n cao nén Bic bo die mina G nhieu no, ec tinh ven big manh cap 6 va duy tri trong 6 git. hai. Nhiet io trung binh ngay giim 2-3 2 (AT Ha Noi: 22°C). Ty, 6 Sin H6 sot Sa Pa: 5,6°C, Lang Son: 8,7°C, Méng Cai: 84°C, HA Noi: 13,0°C, Hai Duong: 11,8°C, ova Khoi Trung bO gid dong bic manh cap 6, ¢ cdip 7 va duy tri trong 9 gid. - Dot 26 (GMBB yéu): Dem 20 ngdy 21/XTI khong khi lanh kém front lanh yéu nh hu6ng dén Bic Bo, Bic va Trung Trung bd gay ra mua nhé vai noi & Bie Bo, ven bién Trung BO c6 muta rai ric, mOt sO noi cé muta vita. Nhiét do. tung binh ngay & Bac Bo gitim 3 - 4°C (AT, Ha Noi : 3,3°C ), riéng cde tinh ving ndi phia bic nhiet do giém 6 - 8°C (AT, Lang Son: 8.7°C, Cao Bang: 6,7°C); Bic Trung im 2 - 3°C, T,, Sin 5,0°C, Bac Ha: 9,7°C, Lang Son: 12,6°C, Ha Noi: 16,8°C, Thanh Hod: 20,0°C, Vinh: 215°C. Bach long vi gid dong bic 10 m/s va duy 11 trong 24 gid. - Dot 27 (KKLTC man): Dem 25, ngiy 26/XII mot dot khong khi lanh dic biét manh tang cudng xudng phia dong Bic bd, ngay va dém 26/XII anh hudng dén toin Bi Bo va cdc tinh ven bién Trung BO, Do anh hudng két hop véi ranh gid tay tren cao da gay ra mua, rai réc mua vita, c6 noi mua to 6 Bic BO véi Iuong mua phé bién 25 - 35 mm (Mung thanh: 92,5 mm, Son La: 66,8 mm, Ph Rang: 76,4 mm, Ha Giang: 72,7 mm, Ha Noi: 51 mm); cdc tinh ven bién Trung BO c6 mua, ¢6 noi mua vita, mua to(Thanh Héa: 38,6 mm, Tinh Gia: 58,1 mm, Ha Tinh: 42,0 mm). Nhiét 49 trung binh ngay 6 Bic BO giim 7-9 dd (AT>, Ha Noi: 9,4°C). Bic va Trung Trung Bé gim 4 - 6 40. Khong khi lanh da gay ra rét dam, rét hai 6 Bac BO va Bac Trung Bo véi nhiét do trung binh ngay phé bién trong kho’ing 10-13 do, mot s6 noi & ving niii cao nhiét do trung binh ngay dudi 10 dQ. Dot rét dam, rét hai nay xdy ra tit 26/XI va kGo dai dén 12/1/2003 (trong 46 ay 16 $3 nga ving ndi thugc tinh Lang Son da c6 ty. Pa: 2.0°C, Cao Bing: 3,5°C, Lang Son: 3.9°C, Meng Ci 5,4°C, Ha NOi: 8,2°C, Thanh inh: 10,2°C, Ha Tinh: 10,9°C, Dong Héi: 13,6°C, Hué: 15,6"C. Gidé dong tén vinh Bic BO va ngoai khoi Trung BO manh cap 7 - 8, gidt 20 m/s (Co To: 12 mfs, gidt 22 m/s) va kéo dai 54 gid’ (Bang 2) Bang 2. Mot so dac trung chinh cua cic dot KKL nam 2002 So | Nedy | Cuong | AT ('C) Tr |thang] do _| (Bac Bo) 1 19/1 | GMDB 5-6 |Phia déng Bac BO cé mua nho rai rac, cap 6 - 7, ‘Thai tiet manh, Trung BO c6 muta va muta nho. iat 16 m/s 2 | 251 | KKLTC | 4-5 [Bac BO cé mua, mua rio nhe va c6 noi cd] cp 6 - 7, manh dong, Bac Trung BO c6é mua vi mua nhd] giat 16 m/s. 3 | 281 | KKLTC 0 | Bac BO cé mua nho vai noi, Bac Trung Bo] cap 6 trung binh c6 mua va mua nhd rai réc. Bic BO tiép 4 | | KKLTC | 2-4 BO co mua 6 nhiéu noi, Bac Trung Bo] cap 6 - 7 manh 6 muta nhé C6 4 ngiy rét dam 6] giat 22 m/s Bac BO BO (2 ngay ¢6 rét hai). 5 | 5a | KKLTC 0 [Phia dong Bac Bd va Bac Trung BO c6| Cip 5) 6 lie éu mua nh6 nhiéu noi, dip 6 6 | lol | GMDB | 1-2 [Bac Bo, Bac va Trung Trung BO cé mua 6] Cap 6-7 manh nhiéu noi. gidt 16 m/s 7 [sa | GMDB | 3-5 [Bac Bo cd m ic, Trung BO 6 mua] Cip 6-7 manh & mhiéu noi gidt 18 m/s 8 {iv} KKLTC | 5-6 |Phia dong Bic BO va Bac Trung BO c6| Cap 6 trung binh mua vi mua nhé r 9 [237] GMBB [1-2 [Bic BO c6 mua va muta nhd o nhigu noi] Caps yeu Bic Trung BO c6 mua, muta rho va c6 noi c6 dong. 10 [1oAV| GMB [| 4-6 [Bac Bo manh dong. Bi 5 mua, muta rho va cd noi co] Cp 6-7 va Trung Trung Bo cé mua} Giat 18.m/s 6 noi mura to vi dong TT /isiv| GMDB | 3-5 [Bic Bo va Bic Trung BO co mura, mua rio yéu va c6 noi c6 dong 12 | 14/V] GMB | 4-5 [Bic Bo 6 mua vita dén mua to, c6 noi yéu muta rat to. 13 | 24/V | KKLTC 3-4 Bac Bo va Bac Trung BO cé mua va mua yeu vita, MOL S6 noi cd muta to. & po Eee een‘Pike diém Ki taomg Thily van Neem 2002 rg Bang 2 (tiép). Mat so dac trung chinh ctia cdc dot KKL nam 2002 So | Ngay Cuong | ATtb (°C) ital Gio NE manh Tr | thing] ao _| (Bic Bo) wes nh BLY 14 ]22/1X] GMDB | 3-4 [Bic BO cd mua, mua rio va co nol od). Cap7 manh dong. Bic Trung BO cé mua vita dén mua} giat 18 m/s. Ito. 15 | 6X | GMDB | 3-4 [Bic BO cé muta, mua vita, 6 noi mua to val _Cap6-7 manh Idong. Trung BO c6 mua vira dén mua to, c6] Giat 18 m/s noi muta rat to. 16 |21/X| GMDB | 6-8 |Phia dong Bic BO cd mua ro va dong) Capo trung binh. nhiéu noi. Phia tay Bic BO va Bic Trung Bo ‘c6 mura rao rai rac va c6 noi c6 dong. 17 | 23/X | KKLTC [1-2 [Bac Bo co mut o nhiéw noi, mot 36 noi co] Cap 6-7 manh, mua vita va dong. Bac va Trung Trung Bo) giat 20 m/s. Ic mua vita dén mua to, mot s6 noi. mua rit to va dong. 18 |30/X | GMDB [5-7 _ [Phia dong Bac BO va Bic Trung Bo co mual Cap 5 yéu lvira dén mua to, mOt s6 noi mua rat to val ldong. 19 | TXT | KKETC fitthay d6i[Bac Bo cd mua nho vai noi. Cac tinh ven| manh bign Trung Bo c6 mua vita dén mua to, mot s6 noi mua rat to. 20 [T6/XI| GMDB | 5-7 [Bic Bo: c6 mua, mot sO noi CO mua vita] Clip 6-7 wil manh, [Trung BO c6 mua va imua vita, mot s6 noi] 16 m/s ico muta to. 21 | 20/XI| KKLTC [2-3 |Phia dong Bic BO cé mua, ¢6 noi mua vira,| Cap 6-7 gia manh, [Trung Bo c6 mua va mua vita, c6 noi mua 17 m/s ho dén rit to. Co To 12 mi 22 |24/XI| KKLTC | 1-2 [Bic BO cé mua va mua ho, Ven bien] Cap 6-7 gid manh. [Trung BO cé mua va muta vira, mot s6 noi] 17 m/s \c6 muta to dén rit to. CO TO 10 mi 23 |26/XI| KKLTC | 2-4 [Bic BO va Bic Trung Bo cd mua, Ven bién| trung binh Trung va Nam Trung BO cé mua va mua Cap 6 vita, c6 noi mua to. Bic BO ¢6 rét dim vaio Ingay 27/XI. 24 | 8/XII| GMDB | 8-10 [Bac Bo cé mua, c6 noi mua vita. Ven bién| Cip7 manh. [Trung BO c6 mua, rai réc mua vita, ¢6 naif gidt 20 m/s Imua to dén rat to, 25 JH/XI) KKLTC | 2-3 [Bae BO e6 mua 6 nhiéu noi, ven bién Trung| trung binh [BQ c6 mura, ¢6 noi muta vita. 26 [21/Xl| GMDB | 3-4 [Bac Bo c6 mua nho vai noi, Bic va Trung| yeu (Trung BO c6 muta rai rac, mot sO noi cd) mua vita 27 [26/XN]| KKLTC | 7-9 [Bac Bo co mua, rai rac mua via, c6 noi] Cap7-8 manh mua to. Ven bién Trung BO c6 mua & nhigu| giat 20 m/s noi va c6 noi mua vira, CO 8 ngay ret dam, Co To 12 mf rct hai ( 6 ngay c6 rét hai). Day la dot rét] gist 22 m/s ldam kéo dai 18 ngay tit 26/X1112002 dén| 121112003.3. BAC piEM HOAT DONG CUA BAO, AP THAP NHIET DOI (ATND) G TAY BAC THAI BINH DUONG VA BIEN DONG NAM 2002 Nam 2002 tren khu vue Tay bie Thai Binh Duong (bao g6m ci Bién Dong) c6 30 con bio va ATND ho: g. xp xi sO Iugng bao, ATND trung binh nhieu na (TBNN). Tuy vay phan bé bao hoat dong theo thai gian trong nam 2002 c6 khc chiit it so véi quy ludt phan b6 chung, Trén khu vue Bign Dong s6 lung bio, ATND hoat dong it hon TBNN 2 con, dic biét s6 Iugng bio chi dat tren 50% so v6i 86 wong bio TBNN hoat dong trén khu vuc nay va LA nam thé 2 (sau nam 1976) khong c6 bio anh hudng truc tigp dén nude ta. 3.1. Dac diém hoat dong cia bao va ATND trén khu vue Tay bie Thai Binh Duong. Nam 2002, én toan khu vue Tay bic Thai Binh Duong c6 26 con bio va 4 ATND(*) hoat dong, duge phan bé theo cac thang nhu trong (Bang 3). Nam 2002, bao xust hin trén khu vuc Tay bic Thai Binh Duong kha s6m (ngay tir nhiing ngay dau ciia trung tudn thang 1) béi con bdo TAPAH (0201) hinh thanh trén ving bién phia dong quan dio Phi-lip-pin va ket thtic vio nhing ngdy gia thing XII khi con bio PONSONA (0226) tan di & ving bién phia tay quén dao Hawai (Bang 4), Bang 3. Bao va ATND hoat dong tren khu vuc Tay bac Thai Binh Duong Thing Tt] mam fav] v | viv} vi | x | x | xr | xm] Nam ATND 1 IP 1 207[62)4, OF [£0 | O40 |nosl” a: Bao (céps-11) | | se at u Baio manh bel DofoSdel 40] a 4] aa HT 1S 2 cap 12 Tong so 1 1 2 0 1 3 7 6 4)3 1 1 30 (*) C6 TATND hoat dong tren khu vue Bién Dong nhung khi di chuyén ra ki Bién Dong da manh lén thanh bao NOGURI (0204) nén 6 Tay bac Thai Binh Duong duge tinh la bdo nhuing trén Bién Dong thi tinh la ATND.Bang 4, Bao va 4p thap nhiét d6i hoat dong 6 Tay bac Thai Binh Duong va Bién Dong nam 2002 = Ten bao vi ATND Cuong do ‘Thoi gian ton tai Pham vi hoat dong ES a WBnsy Boal, outs aon se Pmin| Vmax} Tir | én | Séngay | Noi phat sinh | Noi két thic fs I TS 0201 TAPAH 996 40 12/1 13 . 12.8 - 126.8 16.1 - 122.4 ZEW | Fyps| 0202. MITAG~ 930 | 95 28 | SIT 8 07.1- 151.4 | 16.8 - 135.5 3% [mt [aD y 1004 | 30 | 21a | 2A pase eOr 115-115 p 4 [oar | tye. | 0203: HAGIBIS [935 | 90 ofl 5 12471429 [382-1711 52 fe WaT! 5 1002 | 30 27IN. 3 180-1145 | 24.2 - 123.2 @ | vi | sts | 0204 NOGURI 975 | 60 | Ovi 2/219 -122.9: | “30.4 - 130.0 7 | Vi | TYP) 0205_ | RAMMASUN 945] 85} 29/V1 7 ~|-113-1366 | 38.2 - 1292 8 | Vi | TYP | 0206 | CHATAAN 930 ~29NI 12 [7053-1 of vit [TYP | 0207 HALONG 945 _ 8/Vil 9 09.8 - 154.6 10 | vil) TS” NAKRI Bao sé1 | 985 “3 | 13 /Vil 5 23.1 - 119.3 1 | vit | TYP | 0209” |” FENGSHI 925 layvit | 27/VI0 128-1703 12 | vil | TD = 1002 18/VI_ | 23/VIT 09.5 - 126.7 | 17.5 - 118.4 13 | Vil | TS | 0210 | KALMAEGL 1000 20/ViT l 15.8-174.2-| 19.5 - 176.8 14] vu | Typ | 0211 | FUNG-WONG | ~ aii | 27vil | 6 24.0 = 138.7 | 30.9 - 130.0 15. | Vil 29/V1_ | 30/VIT 1 19.0-110.0 | 2 16 | VII KAMMURI_ | Bio s6 2 ~ 301] S/VI z 20.7 - 114.6 | 26. 17 | vir PHANFONE 12M | 21m | 9 | 163-161.0 | 439-1516 18 | Vill VONGFONE | Bao sé 3 iSViL 2 12.5 | 25.0 - 1086 19 | Vill ~RUSA 23/VIIL EOE: 39.0 - 129.8 20 | vim SINLAKU_ 29/vINI 10 281 21 | Vill ELE | 5 | 30/VII 10 39.9 - 167.2 22 | Ix HAGUPIT | Bao so4 50 wx 2 “| 22.0 - 110.7 25 re CHANGMI 45 | 22x 1 36.0 146.0 24} 1X |~TS | 0220 | MEKKHALA | Bio so 5 45 25/1X~ 3 22.0- 110.0 Ix Hices = Pe 90) 2X” 5 “46.0- 141.0 | Ke BAVI 50} 9x 4 [13.27 152.3 | 289-147, x MAYSAK 55 f 28/x 2, | 243-1585 | 340- 180, x HUKO. 75 26/X 12 11.4-155.3 | 285-174. XI HAI SHEN 15 20/x1 | 2 5 11.8 - 142.6 | 30.0 - 146.0 30_| XII PONSONA 0 3X “087 [29.0 - 160.0Suet dong cia bao, ae nam nay a dai ue het cdc ee Carte aa +¥ khong 12 con. thang TT nam sau, Sor i vi nia du nim 2002 phain bo quy luat chung. Thong thudng hai thang II va IIT tin suat xudt hién bio khong nhung hai thing nay trong nam 2002 lai c6 2 con bao va 1 ATND hoat dong, n TBNN. Nguge lai, thang III va thang LV Ia hai théng bao hoat dong ci (2-3 con) nhung nam 2002 ci hai théng nay lai khong 6 con bao hiéu nay chi thudng xuat hién & nhiing nam it bao hoat dong nhwt cdc nam 1973 (21 can), 1983 (23 con), 1998 (16 con). Quy dao bao trén khu vue Tay bic Thai Binh Duong nam 2002 cing kha phiic tap 4 é . digu nay phai chang lién quan dén sy hoat dong yéu nam 2002, Dé ciing la diéu I¥ gidi tai sao nam 2002 bao hoat dong ft tren khu vue Bién Dong va khong c6 con bio nao anh hudng truc tigp dén Viet Nam. 3.2. Dac diém hoat dong ciia bao va ATND trén Bién Dong. Nam 2002 trén Bign Dong c6 5 con bio va 5 ATND hoat dong. Nhu vay, s6 lvong bao it hon mic TBNN khoing 4-5 con, nhung nguge lai sé Ivgng ATND lai 6 mic nhiéu hon TBNN khoing 2-3 con. Tat ca 5 con bio hoat dong trén Bién Dong trong nam nay déu phat sinh ngay trén Bién Dong, khong con nao c6 ngudn géc tit ‘Thai Binh Duong. Nam 2002 so lugng bao phat sinh trén Bién Dong cao hon rit nhiéu so voi mtic TBNN (TBNN khoang 45%). Phan bé cia bio va ATND theo cic thing 6 trén Bién Dong trong nam 2002 duge trinh bay trong Bang 5. Qua Bing 5 ching ta nhan thay nam 2002 bao hoat dong trén khu vue Bién Dong khong chi ¢6 s6 lugng it ma cumg do cing khong manh, khong €6 con bao ndo man tt cap 12 tré lén, trong Itic dé theo quy luat théng thuéng trén Bién Dong hing nam_ c6 khoting 40% bio manh tir caip 12 6 én hoat dong. Phan bé hoat dong cua bao trén Bién Dong theo thoi gian cing c6 khée biét so véi quy luat chung. Mac dit biio, ATND.nam 2002 xudit hién tren khu vuc Bién Dong tuong déi phi hop v6i quy luat chung, nhung thdi gian két thc lai sém hon TBNN khoang 2 thang nén c6 thé ndi mia bao nam 2002 6 théi gian ngin hon binh thudng va bio hoat dong kha yéu 6t trong nifa sau cla nim, Tuy thudc thdi gian trong nam ma quy dao bao c6 khac nhau, song quy luat chung bilo hoat dong tren Bién Dong theo 4 hung chit dao: HuGng dong bic (bao di chuyén vé phia Dai Loan, ra khoi Bién Dong); Hudng bic hoge tay bic do Quing Dong, Trung Quéc); Huéng ta (bio dé bo vao mién Bac Viet Nam); Huéng tay hoac tay tay nam (bao dé bg vao mién Nam Vi 2002 bio hoat dong tren Bién Dong di chuyén chit yéu lén phia bac. Mot cach tuong déi cé thé chia quy dao bio thanh hai chim chinh:- Chiim thi nhét di chuyén chi yéu vé phfa dong bic, qua ving bién Dai Loan réi ra khoi Bién Dong; - Chim thit hai dé bd vao ba bién Quiing Dong va Quang Tay (Trung quéc) (Ban 46 dung di cita bao) Bang 5, Bao va ATND hoat dong trén khu vuc Bién Dong nam 2002 Thing | 1 | om | am} av] v | ve | valvinl x | x | xr] xin ie] ATND 1 I 1 P| S dO, (cap 8-11) ee - % Bao manh 0 > cp 12 Téng so Bio ful chili} Bof}Q2e]0) .29]i-01 foO ald yao. Ban dé 1. Dudng di ctia bao trén khu vuc BD nam 20023.3. Bao va ATND ainh hung dén Viet nam, ‘Mac dau trong nam 2002 khong cé con bao hoac ATND nao dinh hudng tryc tiép én nude ta, nhung c6 3 con di céch bo bién mide ta duéi 300km va gay ra anh huéng gidn tip. D6 12 cic con bao $6 4, sO 5 va ATND thing VIL. 3.3.1. Bao sé 4. Sing 10/IX, mot ving dp thip tren khu vue dong bic BD manh len thinh ATND. Vi ui tam ATND htc 7h sing 6 vao khoang 19,5°N - 119,5°E, manh cap 6. Chiéu téi cling ngay, ATND manh Jén than bao s6 4. Day [a con bao thi 18 hoat dong 6 khu vue Tay bac Thai Binh Duong (0218) va c6 tén quéc té 1a HAGUPIT. Luc 19h ngay 10/IX, vj ui bio s6 4 & vio khoang 20,4°N - 116,4°E, manh_céip 8. Bio di chuyén tuong d6i di dinh theo hu6ng tay tay bi a 6 i F Sing sém I1/IX, bio dé bo vao tinh Quang Dong (Trung Quéc). Sau khi vao dat lién, bio suy yéu thinh ATND, manh ciip 6 va tiép tuc di chuyén rat cham vé phia tay. Sing 13/IX, khi dén cach Méng Céi khong 120 km vé phia dong bic, ATND dot ngot chuyén hudng va di chuyén rat cham vé phfa dong nam. Trua 14/IX, ATND dé bo vao phia tay bin dio Loi Chau (Trung Quéc) réi tigp tuc di chuyén vé phia dong. Trua 16/IX, ATND mot lin nia lai dot ngot chuyén hung di vé phia tay nam. Sing sém 17/X, ATND suy yéu thanh mot ving thap ngay phia dong bic dio Hai Nam (Trung Quéc). Ving thap nay tiép tuc troi dat _vé phia tay nam ri tan di 6 ving bién phia nam dao nay. Do anh hudng ciia ATND do bao s6 4 day lén, tir 13 dén 15/1X 6 Bac BO va Thanh 6 mua, c6 noi mua vita, mua to v6i ugg mua phd bién & mic tir 30 - 60 mm, (Quang Ninh) 339 mm, H&Noi 110 mm, Giing (Thanh Hod) 84 mm. 3.3.2. Bao s6 5. Tru 22/IX, mot ving dp thap ten khu vue gitta BD di manh lén thanh ATND. 13h vi trf tam ATND 6 vio khoang 13,0°N - 114,5°E, manh cap 6. Sau khi hinh thinh, ATND di chuyén tuong d6i én dinh theo hung tay bic, tc do khoang 13 km/h. Sing 25/IX, ATND manh lén thanh bao ngay cach dito Hai Nam (Trung Quéc) khoang 70 km vé phia nam, Day 1a con bao thit 20-hoat dong 6 khu vue Tay bac Thai Binh Duong (0220) va c6 ten quée té Ia MEKKHALA. Ltic 7h sing 25/1X, vi tri tam bio 6 vo khoang 17,6°N - 109,6°E, manh cap 9, giat trén cap 9. Bao tiép tue di chuyén theo ng sém 26/IX, khi di dén phan phfa tay ciia dito, bao chuyén huéng bic va di vio Vinh Bac BO déng thoi suy yéu di mot it. Sang 27/IX, khi cdn cach Méng Cai (Quing Ninh) khoang 100 km vé phia dong nam, bio lai dot ngot chuyén hudng di vé phia dong biic. Sing 28/IX, bio suy yéu thinh ATND truéc khi dé bo vao ban dato Loi Chau (Trung Quéc) réi tan di nhurmét ving thap tren dia phan tinh Quang Dong (Trung Quoc), Bio s6 5 chi:gay mua, c6 noi mua vita 6 cdc tinh thude phia dong Bic BO ngiy 28/IX. 3.3.3, ATND. Sing 29/VII, mot ving thap da manh lén thanh ATND ngay tren khu vue dito Hai Nam (Trung Quéc). Héi 7h sing, vi tri 6 vio khodng 19,0°N - 110,0°E, manh cap 6, giat tren cap 6. Sau khi hinh thanh, ATND di chuyén khd 6n dinh theo hung tay bic, 6c do khodng 12 km/h déng thoi manh dain len cp 7, giat tren céip 7. Chiéu t6i 30/VII, ATNDdi vao dat lién thude dia phan tinh Quing Ninh (gan phia nam thi xd Méng Cai). Sau khi yao dat lign, ATND nhanh chong suy yéu thanh mot ving dp thap, tiép tuc di chuyén vé phia tay tay bac rdi tan dan 6 ving ndi tay bac Bac BO. Trong 2 ngay 29 va 30/VII, ATND da gay ra mot dot mua via, mua to, ¢6 noi mua it to & céc tinh thude phia dong Bac bo va bic Trung bd. Luong mua tir 19h ngay 28 dén 7h ngay 31/VII pho bién & mee 30 - 70 mm, riéng cac tinh thudc viing niii phia bic va khu dong bic tir 100 - 150 mm, mot s6 noi 1én hon nhu: Méng Cai (Quang Ninh) 265 mm, Cam Dan (Bac Giang) 197 mm, Chi Lang (Lang Son) 183 mm. 3.4. Cong tac du bao bao nam 2002. Cong tic theo ddi, dy béo, thong tin dy bao bdo va ATND, di duge thye hign mot cach nghiém tie theo ding quy tinh, quy pham va “Quy ché béo bao, 1a” cua Tha tuéng Chinh phi, Trung tam Dy béo KTTV Trung vong lu6n duy tri thong tin lien lac v6i cdc Dai KTTV khu vue, cdc Trung tam Durbéo KTV tinh, thong bio va trao déi ve tinh hinh dién bign cua bao, ATND, lim tot cong tac chi dao dir bio, gitip cho cac Dai, Trung tam du béo Tinh hodn thinh tt nhiém vu dur b&o phuc vu va chi dao cong tic phong chdng bao 6 dia phuong. Nam nay, mac dit khong c6 con bilo hoac ATND nio anh hudng truc tiép dén nuée ta, song dién bién cua chiing ciing kha phic tap, nhung nhY theo d6i chat ché nen cdc con bio va ATND anh hudng dén nude ta déu duge dy bio sm, két qua dir bio tong d6i sat v6i thuc té vé pham vi anh hudng, cudng do gié manh va tinh hinh mua, g6p phan chit dong phong chéng gitim nhe thiét hai cia thién tai trong pham vi ci nuée:4. DIEN BIEN NHIET DO NAM 2002. Dién bién nhiét do nam 2002 trén todn anh thé kha phitc tap, khong déng nhat gidta cde ving, mién thdi ky trong nam. Nén nhiét d6 trong cae thing mila hé cao hon TBNN, song vao cc thing chuyén tiép tir mia he sang miia dong nhiéu noi lai c6 nén nhiét do xi hoac thiip hon TBNN. O Bac BO mia dong nam 2002 14 mia dong thi ba lién tiép dm r6 ret. . 4,1, Nhiét d6 trung binh. Thang IV, VI va XIL nén nbiét do tren pham vi ca nude pho bién & mite cao hon TBNN. Tuy vay, dién bién nhiét dé cia timg thdng cling rat khac nhau: Thing LV, rong khi nén nhiét do cia khu vue tir Trung Trung Bo tré vao pho bién & mie cao hon TBNN tir 0,5 - 1,0 °C, thi 6 khu vuc tir Bac Trung. B6 tr6 ra, nén nhiét d6-lai cao hon TBNN tr 1,0 - 2,0°C; Thang V1, nén nhiét do mac dit cao hon TBNN, nhung chi pho bign & mute tir0,5°C dén 1,0°C. ‘Thang VIII va thang 1X, nén nhiét 6 tren pham vi cd nuGe xaip xi hode thaip: hon TBNN, riéng mot s6 noi thudc mién Dong Nam Bo cé nhiét do cao hon TBNN nhung tri 86 khong 1dn, Nhiing thang cdn lai c6 dién bign nhiét d6 ciing kha khée biét. Trong nhing thing mba dong nhu thang I, II va III cac tinh ti Bac Trung BO té ra pho bign 6 nén nhiet do cao hon TBNN, con cic tinh tit Trung Trung B6 tré vao phd bién cé nén nhiét do & mic xdip xi hoae thip hon TBNN. Céc thang IV,VII, X. bign theo huéng nguge lai: cdc tinh tit Trung Trung BO tr vio_nén nhiet do phd bién & mite xéip xi hode cao hon TBNN, cdn ede tinh tir Bic Trung BO tré ra c6 nén nhiet 46 phé bign & mic xp xi hoac thap hon TBNN Bang 6a, 6b. 4.2. Nhiét do thap nhat va hién tugng rét dam, rét hai. 4.2.1. Nhiét dé thdp nhat. Nhigt do thap nhat tuyét déi trong nam, Trén pham vi ci nuéc phé bién xiy ra vao thoi ky nhing ngay cudi thing XII, va nhing ngay dau théng I. Nhi¢t do thiip nhat tuyet doi nam 2002, ten pham vi ed nuée, quan trie duge tai Sa Pa (Lao Cai) 12 0,9°C (xy ra ngay 3/11) Bang 7. 4.2.2. Hién tuong rét dam, rét hai. Cac thing trong mia Dong-Xuan 2002, céc tinh phia bie c6 thoi Het tong di am. Song rét dam, rét hai nim 2002 6 c: ¢ BO va Thanh Héa lai xuat hign kha sém (vdo ngay 26 va 27/X1) va sém nhat 6 Bic BO ké tir nim 1987 tré lai day. Cac dot rét dam, rét hai nam 2002 chii yéu xy ra vio céc thing chinh dong (I, II, XID. Nam 2002 6 dong bing, trung du Bac BO c6 3 dot rét dam, trong d6 ci 3 dot déu c6 ngdy rét hai, con 6 khu vuc Thanh Hod - Ha Tinh cling c6 3 dot rét dam, trong d6 ¢6 2 dot c6 ngay rét hai. SO ngay rét dam, rét hai, 6 ving dng bing, tung du Bic Bo phé bién tir 24 den y (trong dé chi c6 10 dén 11 ngdy rét hai), cOn & khu vue Thanh Hod - Ha Tinh, tir20 dén 21 ngay (c6 4 dén 5 ngiy rét hai), thaip hon s6 ngay rét dam, rét hai TBNN.- Dot rét dam thir nhait: Tir ngay 23 dén 30/1, kéo dai 8 ngay, trong dé c6 2 ngiy rét hai. - Dot rét dam thet hai: Tirngay I dén 4/11, kéo dai 4 ngay trong d6 c6 2 ngiy rét hai. - Dot rét dam thit ba: Tit ngay 26 dén ngiiy 31/XI; day 1a dot rét hai kéo dai 6 ngay, tiéu bigu nhit trong nam, Dot rét nay kéo dai cho dén ngay 12/1/2003.Bang 6a. Nhiet do TB va chun sai trong cac thang nita du nam 2002('C) wigs ‘Thang I UL Iv VI Dia diém ieee yor | ee Tees | Cree cs) TiS? PO cs LaiGhau | 167 | -05 [19.5] 07 [23.6] 18 [25.6 | 09 [260 | -04 [267 | 02 Dién Bien 15.8 | O01 19.4 | 1.8 21.2] 0.5 | 24.0] 0.4 | 25.1 | -0.2 | 264] 05 Soota [145 [-on [ist] 16 [212 [12 [oa3y 15 [236 | on [oso | 01 ‘Sa Pa 82 |-03 [of ia [149] 10 [176] 06 [179 | 04 | 19.9 Lao Cai. 16.9 | 0.9 | 19.3 | 2.5 | 220] 1.4 | 25.3] 1.3 | 26.0] -08 | 29.9 vena | 165 | 12 [190] 25 [ars | 18 [25.1 [ 18 [262 [05 [281 HaGiang | 164 | 10 [19.1] 25 [216 | 13 [251] 17 [258 [09 [280 Tuyén Quang | 16.3 | 0.8 | 19.2 | 2.3 | 22.0] 2.1 | 25.6] 2.0 | 26.8 | -0.3 | 28.5 so | 138 | 05 [16.7 [24 [199 | 17 [238] 17 [255 | 00 [267 Cao Bang 14.4 | 0.4 | 17.7 | 2.8 | 20.4] 14 | 24.4] 15 | 25.7 | -0.3 | 27.3 Thai Neuyen [16.1 | 06 | 189] 20 | 217| 19 [251] 16 | 27.1 | 00 | 286 Ba ang 17.0 | 11 19.0 | 1.9 | 21.9] 2.0 | 25.2] 1.6 | 27.3 | 0.0 | 28.9 Phitho | 16.9 | 12 [194 219 [21 [254] 19 | 269 | -02 | 28.6 Hod Binh [17.3 [| 1.2 [200 228 | 21 [266 | 22 [274] 03 | 285 HaNoi | 17.7 [13 [195 225 | 23 | 259] 22 [27.7] 04 | 296 Tien Yen | 15.3 | 06 [179 208 | 1.9 23 | 262 | 00 | 27.7 Bai Chay [16.7 | 0.9 | 186 2151923 23 | 27.0 [ 03 | 28.6 PhaLign | 17.2 | 0.9 | 185 21.2 | 21 [246 | 20 [266 | 02 | 285 Thai Binh | 166 | 05 [184] 1.6 | 213] 18 | 245] 13 [275| 05 [292] 0 Nam Dinh [17.3 | 06 [18.0] 0.7 [219] 21 [252] 17 [273] 00 [294] 04 Thanh Hod_| 17.7 [07 [19.1] 18 [218] 20 [248 [13 [27.2] 00 [290] 01 Vinh 17.9 | 0.3 | 19.4] 1.5 | 22.3] 2.0 | 25.9] 18 | 28.0] 0.3 | 306] 14 DingHoi__| 19.1 | 0.1 | 203[ 1.0 [227] 1.0 [25.7] 08 [27.7 | -03 | 30.2 | 05 Hug 19.9 | -O.1 | 21.0] O.1 | 23.5 | 04 | 26.4 | 04 | 27.7 | -0.6 | 28.9 | -04 Da 217 | 04 [224] 00 [244 [03 | 26.7 | 05 [288 | 06 | 295 | 03 Quing Neai_| 22.1 | 04 [226] 00 [249 | 05 | 270] 03 | 291 | 07 | 29.7 | 07 QuyNhon_| 24.0 | 1.0 [239] 01 [264] 11 [286] 14 [302] 14 [308] 12 Pay Cu | 187 | -03 | 19.7 | -10 [226 | -0.1 [245 | 05 [244 [04 [233 | 03 Buon Ma Thuot| 21.3 | 0.2 | 22.2 [05 -0.2 [26.4 | 03 | 26.3 | 05 [25.0 | 02 Da Lat 15.5 | -09 [161 [-13 -05 | 189 | -0.3 [19.9 [02 [19.3 | -0.1 Nha Trang 24. 0.5_| 24.0 | -0.5 | 26.3 | 0.5 | 28.0 | 0.7 | 29.2] 0.9 | 29.4] 1.0 Phan Thiet_| 24.7 | 0.0 | 249 | -03 [267 | 02 [285 [ 06 [287 | 04 | 280 | 03 Viing Tau 25.4 | -0.2 | 25.6 | -0.7 | 27.0 | -0.8 | 29.0 | 0.1 | 29.5 | 0.6 | 28.3] 03 Tay Ninh__| 257 { 03 | 262 | -07 | 280 | -02 [291 | 03 [292] 1.0 [278] 06 TPHCM | 265 | 07 | 258] -09 [286 | 07 | 300| 1.1 | 305] 22 [289 | 14 TiénGiang | 25.2 [02 [25.3 | -0.9 | 269 | -0.7 | 288 | 0.0 [286 | 0.1 | 27.6 | 02 Cin Tho [25.3 | 00 | 25.7 | -04 | 27.2 [-0.1 | 290 | 05 [285 | 07 [274 | 03 SécTrang | 25.2 | 0.1 [25.7 | -02 | 269 | -03 [28.7 [03 | 282 | 02 [27.4] 01 Rach Gis | 25.7 | -03 | 26.1 | -09 [27.7 | -05 [295 | 05 [294 | 05 | 287| 05 camMau [263 [ 12 [265] 07 [279] 11 [297[ 18 [287] 10 | 280 | 07Bang 6b. Nhiét do TB va chuan sai cae thang nifa cudi nam 2002 (°C) Thang! VIL Vit Ix x XI XIL Dia dig To pites vata CSy) ti] cos: cs | Tt [cs | pes Lai Chau -1.0 [24.9 | -17 [245 [15 22 [201 | -04 | 179[ 06 Dien Bien 0.0 | 25.3 [0.1 [250 | 04 0s [198 [07 [182 | 24 Son La 0.4 | 243 | -03 [238 [0.1 0.1 [179 | -03 [61 [11 Sa Pa Ol 18.7 | --0.8 | 17.4 | -0.7 0.0 | 12.6 | 0.2 | 104 | 0.9 Lio Cai to [27.2 | -0.1 | 269 | 06 0.2 | 206 | 04 [190 [1.7 Yen Bai 04 | 272 [-03 | 264 | 00 -03 [203 | -01 [isa] 14 | Ha Giang 02 | 266 [-1.0 [26.3 | -02 207 | 05 [180 ) 13 Tuyén Quang 04 [275 [01 [26.7 | 02 20.7 | 04 [186 | 14 Lang Son -0.3 [25.9 | -0.7 | 24.6 | -0.6 175 | -08 | 15.0 | 02 Cao Bing 02 [26.3 [-05 [250 | -05 18.6 | -0.1 | 15.9 | 0.9 ‘Thai Newyen 0.0 [27.9 [0.0 | 268 | -0.1 20.7 | 0.1 [183] 1.0 Bic Giang 00 | 28.1 | -02 [27.2 [01 20.7 | -04 [185 | 08 0.3 | 27.6 | -0.2 | 267 | -02 -0.1 [209 | 0.1 [iso] 1.3 Pht Tho Hod 05 | 27.7] 00 | 266 [ 01 0.2 [206 | -0.1] 192] 1.7 0.5 | 28.4] 02 | 276 [ 04 0.6 [21.2 | -0.2 [189] 07 0.0 | 27.1 | -0.2 | 260 | -0.3 -o. [19.6 | -0.3 [17.7] 13 0.1 | 27.8 [0.1 [268 [0.0 03 | 27.6 | -0.1 | 266 | -0.2 -0.1 | 27.7 | -0.6 | 26.6 | -0.4 0.0 | 28.0 | -0.6 | 27.0 | -0.5 03 [206 | -05 [iss | 1.3 03 [204 | -09 [185 | 04 -0.2 [205 | -06 [iss] 08 oa | 208 | -1.0 [ise | 04 Phit Lign ‘Thai Binh Nam Dinh ‘Thanh Hoa 0.2 | 27.7 | -0.5 | 264 | 00 02 [21.0 | -14 [1907 04 Vinh 04 [284 | -03 | 268 | 00 05 [211 | -05 [198 | 09 Dong Hoi 28.6 | -0.5 | 26.4 | -0.6 0.5 6 | 02 [210] 11 Hi OA | 27.8 | -1.1 | 26.0 | -11 0.2 | 22.7 | -0.4 | 21.6] 0.8 Di Ning 14 [282 [-06 [27.0 | -03 03 [247 [07 [235 | 16 Quing Ngai 12 [279] 09 03 03 [248 [06 14 Quy Nhon 48 29:3 | -0.5. 03 0.6 | 25.9 | 0.6 14 Play Cu On 3} 0.1 OA 07 | 21 O8 19} Buon Ma Thuot 1A ~{ 23.8} -0.4 O04 0.6 | 23.0] 05 2.0 Da Lat 0.2 | 18.2 | -0.7 04 0.0 | 17.9 | 03 ! Nha Trang 18 [285 [03 on 0.6 | 25.7 | 0.7 14 Phan Thiet 1.0 | 26.9 | -0.1 OL 0.8 | 27.2 | 0.9 1.6. Vang Tau oa [275 | 01 08 o7 | 224 [05 19) ‘Tay Ninh 1.2 [26.7 | -0.1 05 07 | 268 | 07 16 TPH-CM 18 [27.7] 06 13 fas opel eta 24) Titn Giang 05 [267 [0.1 07 o1 | 264 [-02 20 Can The 0.9 [265 | -02 0.0 04 [272 [04 19 Soe Tring 0.4 | 26.2 | O08 02 0.1 | 26.6 | 0.2 1.0 0.6 | 27.6} -02 0.2 O07 | 27.8 | 0.7 Lt tr Tare T OS 03 te | ete | hee. 22Bang 7. Nhiét do thap nhat va cao nhat tuyét d6i, nam 2002 (°C) = oe Nety,_|- ‘thing Tr. Neay | Thing Lai Chi ta 9 1 2 Iv Son La 64 5 I 21 Iv é 47 5 t 2 IV Sa Pa 09 3 ul 1 Vi Lio Cai 108 28 XI 21 Ve vil Yen Bai 85 28 XI “21 Vv Ha Gi ees 6 Tae Li 21 fy Tuyen Quang 93 i Tae Tf 21 v Lang Son 35 5 I 21 Vv Cao Bing 57 5 I 3 ac] Vil ‘Thai Nguyén 8.0 SF Tilo. (XM, 21 Vv Bic Giang | _.7.2, | 27 XIL OT V Phit Tho 9.0 5. fp i cies Hoi Binh 84 7 XI 21 Vv 80 27 XI Fea Vv 5.6 27 XIL 21 / 7.0 27. MIke t| 21 69 22, xe tf 20 Vv 6.8 a7 Xil 13 vi_| Tl 27 Xi 13 al Ne Thanh Hoa 80 2 XI 21 Fry. Vinh 10.2 27 z my | Dong Hoi 13.6-—|—27 = ak “VIL Hue 14.6 1 I 25 VIL Da Nang 158 1 I 9 VIL Quiing nga 16.9 i I 24 Vii Quy Nhon 19.6 12 I 1 Vil Play Cu 98 6 I 24 Iv BM Thuot 15.1 1 I 2 v “Di Lat 70 1 1 Ss iv Nha Trang 18.3 1 1 9 Vil Phan Thiet 79 9 I 1 VI 19.9 9 1 B Vi 174 3 1 15 Vv 19.4 a. 1 4 Vv 184 10 I 18 Vv Cin Thar 19.0 9 I 9 v s 2 I 9 IV a I 8 Vv I I 1 vi4.3. Nhiét 40 cao nhiit va hién tuong nang néng. 4.3.1. Nhiét do cao nhat. Nhiét do cao nhat tuyét doi tong nam 6 cac tinh thudc Bic BO xay ra vao thang V va VII, mot vai noi thudc khu Tay Bac xay ra vio thing IV, 6 céc tinh ven bién Trung BO vao thang VII, 6 cac tinh Nam Bé chit yéu vao thing V, 6 cac tinh Tay Nguyen vao thang IV va V. Nhiét do cao nhat tuyét d6i trong nam tai Lai Chau la 38,5°C (ngay 22/1V), Hoa Binh 18 38,8°C (ngiy 21/V), tai Ha Noi 38, 6°C (ngay 21/V), tai Phi Lién 36,9°C (ngay 21/V), tai Hué 38,2°C (ngay 25/VID, tai Buon Ma Thuot: 36,0°C (ngay 2/V), tai TP. H6 Chi Minh 38.4°C (ngay 4/V). Nhiét d6 cao nhat tuyét d6i trong nam, trén pham vi ra tai Quy Chau (Nghé An) 40,0°C (ngay 16/V). Nhiét do cao nhat tuyét doi cita hau hét cic dia diém trén pham vi ca nuéc trong nim 2002 déu 6 miic cao hon so véi nam 2001 Bang 7. 4.3.2. Hién tuong nding nong. Nam 2002, ning néng xiy ra chi yéu tai khu vuc Trung Bo va Nam BO. 6 Bic BO nang nong xdy ra nhung khong gay git va khong kéo dai. Cac tinh Mién Dong Nam Bo, thing I da xuat hién ning néng, nhiét 49 cao nhat mot s6 noi dat 35-36°C, nhu tai Déng Phui (Binh Phude) 36,7°C (ngay 28/1). Tinh hinh nang néng nam 2002. Noi chung dién bién binh thudng. S6 dgt ning ndng khong nhiéu, song s6 ngdy c6 ning néng vi ing ndng kéo dai nhiéu hon so v6i nam 2001. Trong nam, nhimng dot nding néng kéo dai nhiéu ngay tap trung chil yeu 6 khu vue Mién Bong Nam Bo va khu vue tif Quang Nam dén Binh Thuan, con & Bic Bo thi nhting dot ning néng chi phd bién 3-4 ngdy (Bang 8). Dién bien cdc dot nang néng tiéu biéu nhur sau: = Dot 1: Dot ning néng tren dign rong tai cdc tinh mién Dong Nam Bo kéo dai tir ngay 01 dén 23 thang IV. Nhiet do, cao nhat pho bien dat tir 35 - 37°C. Nhiet do cao nhat i Tay Ninh 1 37,0°C. - Dot 2: Dot niing néng xiy ra & mot s6 noi thudc phia Tay Bic BO kéo dai tirngay 18 - 22/IV, Nhiét dé cao nhat phé bign dat tir 35 - 38°C. Nhigt 40 cao nhit tai Lai Chau 1 38,5°C. - Dot 3: Dot ning néng xiy ra 6 cc tinh Mién Dong Nam Bo kéo dai tir ngay 01 - 20/V. Nhigt 46 cao nhit pho bign dat ti 35 - 37°C. Nhigt 49 cao nhat tai Tay Nin fi ST oe. - Dot 4: Dot ning néng xiy ra ti ngay 31/V- 2/V16 khu vue tir Thanh Héa dén Da Nang, tiép tue kéo dai cho dén ngdy 9/VI 6 khu vue tir Quing Nam dén Phan Rang. Nhigt d6 cao nhat & khu vue: phfa bac dat tir 35 - 37°C: tai Hué 1a 37,8°C. Nhigt dQ cao nhdit tai khu vue phia nam tir 35 - 38°C, Quing Ngai 38,4°C. - Dot 5: Dot ning néng xiy ra é khu vuc tir Nghe An dén Da Ning kéo dai tirngiy 14 - 22/VI. Nhigt 46 cao nhat pho bign dat ti 36 - 38°C, cao nha 1A 38,8°C xay ra tai Con Cuong (Nghe An). - Dot 6: Dot ning néng xiy ra 6 Bic Trung BO tirngay 11 - 14/VIL. Nhigt do cao nhait pho bign dat tir 35,5-37,5°C. Nhiét d6 cao nhat 1a 38,5°C xy ra tai Ba Don (QuangBinh). Dot nang néng nay tiép tuc kéo. dai cho dén ngay 27/VII 6 cae tinh Trung va Nam Trung B6. Nhiét 49 cao nhat 1a 39,2°C xay ra tai Hoai Nhon (Binh Dinh). - Dot 7: Dot ning néng xay ra G khu vuc Trung va Nam Trung Bo kéo dai tir ngdy 31/VII dén 3/VIII. Nhiét do cao nhat phé bién dat tir 35 - 37°C, Nhigt 49 cao nhat 18 38.2°C xay ra tai Qui Nhon (Binh Dinh) (Bang 9) Bang 8. Phan bé s6 ngay nang néng theo thang trong nam 2002 Khu vie) pita tay'Baie|' Phfa Gong: | Thank Héa -} Quang Nam | vai sene | Toad aah bo Bac bo TH Thien) = Binh |" Nam bo thé Z Hue Thuan 5 7 fl, ul 6 6 M1 3 3 19 25 IV 9 21 30 Vv 7 4 5 9 2 47 VI 7 4 16 14 2 43 VII 5 7 21 42 Vill 6 3 8 24 Ix 2 2 4 Tong cong | 30 20 49 52 77 228 Bang 9. Dac trung cac dot nding néng nam 2002 TT | Thoigian | T,phé bién (°C) Tyeue dai(’C) Pham vi anh huéng T | 1-23V 35-37 Tay Ninh: Mién Dong Nam BO 37.0 2 | 182 22AV 35-38 Lai Chau: 38,5 Lai Chau 3 | 1-20/v 35 - 37 Tay Ninh: 37.3, Mién Dong Nam BO 31V- 21 Thanh Héa-Da Nang 4 | 31IV-9NI Quing Nam - Phan Rang 5 | 11-221 36 - 38 Con Cuong (Nghé An): 38,8 | Nghé An = Da Nang 6 | 1-14 35-37 Ba dn Quing Binh): 38.5 | Bic Trang Bo Trang 1-27, 36-38 Hoai Nhon (Binh Dinh): 39.2| _va Nam Trung BO T [31/Vir-3/ViIT Qui Nhon (Binh Dinh): 38,2 Trung va Nam Trung Bo5. DIEN BIEN MUA 5.1. Dac diém chung. G Bae BO, tinh hinh dién bién mua nam 2002 tong d6i phite tap va e6 nhiéu khdc biét so v6i nam 2001. Néu trong nam 2001 nhiing noi hut mua nhiéu nhat, tng lvong mua ciing dat 6 mitc 90% so véi TBNN, thi nam 2002 lvong mua ca nam & nhiéu noi chi dat mic duéi 80% so véi TBNN, tham chi cé mot s6 noi chi dat dudi 70% nhu; Yén Bai 66,4%; Phii Tho 61,5%... Chi c6 3 théng V, VI, XII_nam 2002 1a nhing thang cé long mua 6 mic Ién hon TBNN, cdn cic thang khdc déu 6 lugng mua thang phé bién & mic it hon TBNN. Mac di mia mua nam 2002 dén kha phi hop qui luat khi hau, tt dau thang V da xudt hién nhimg dot mua vita trén dién rong nhung luong mua cé mia mua cht yéu chi tap trung vao cdc thing diu mita (thang V va VI) nén tng Iuong mua ca nim o Bac BO phan 1én cdc khu vue déu hut so v6i TBNN tir 350-450 mm (trit ving nti Tay Bac Bac BO c6 luong mua ca nam vuot TBNN). Do tinh hinh it mua kéo dai, nén kho han va thiéu nudc xay ra khé tram trong, anh huéng dn dén sin xudt. O Trang B6, \wong mua céc thing dau nam I, II, III, IV va céc thang VI, VII, X ca ‘Trung BO phé bien thap hon TBNN. Thang V khu vuc Bac va Trung Trung BO ¢6 lung mua [én hon TBNN, con Nam Trung BO c6 lugng mua thap hon TBNN. Céc thang con lai (VIII, IX, XI, XI) lugng mua tren ton khu vue phé bién 6 mite cao hon TBNN. Do vay téng Ivong mua ci nam 6 Trung BO dat xap xi gid tri TBNN. O Téy Nguyén, mia mua dén s6m, tir giita thing V da xuat hién cdc dot mua vi en dign rong. Céc thang I, TI, IV, X 1 nhiing théng hut mua trén dién rong 10 ret. Cac thing III, VI, VIII c6 lugng mua phé bién & mic cao hon TBNN. Trong cdc thing cdn lai (V, VIL, IX, XI, XI) phan b6 mua xay ra khong déu trén ton khu vuc, c6 su nguge nhau gitta phan phia bac va phia nam Tay Nguyén nhung tong lugong mua nam 2002 khu vue Tay Nguyén dat xap xi TBNN. O Nam B6, mia mua nam 2002 dén mugn hon so véi nam 2001, vao khoding gidta thing V tai Nam Bo méi xuat hién mua vira, mua to trén dién rong. Nam Bo [a khu vue hut mua nhiéu nhat trong ca nude, chi cd mot s6 noi ven bién c6 luong mua cd nam dat mtic xp xi hoac cao hon mot it so véi TBNN, con toan khu vuc pho bién cé Iuong mua thap hon. Téng lung mua ca nam & Nam BO phd bién dat khoiing tir 65% - 95% mite TBNN, cd biét c6 nhimg noi chi dat m6t nira mite TBNN, nhu Tién Giang: 51,8%. Mua mua nam 2002 6 Viét Nam cé mét s6 dac diém chinh nhu s * Tinh hinh mua nim 2002 xay ra trén céc khu vuc c6 nhiéu dic diém khdc nhau, song tong thé nim 2002 1A mot trong nhiing nim mua it, nhat la nhiing thing déu nam. 6 la mot trong nhig nguyén nhan gay kho han kéo dai wén dién rong trong pham vi ca nuée. © Mila mua & Trung Bo dén sém va cé dién bién binh thudng. * Mila mua 6 Bic BO va Nam BO dén cham hon so véi nam 2001, nhung phi hop voi qui Iuat khi hau va ket thiic mugn hon so véi TBNN. Phan bé lugng mua cdc thing trong nam 2002 & cac tram chinh duge trinh bay & Bang 10a, 10b, 10c.Bang 10a. Téng lvong mua va chusin sai thang nam 2002 (mm) Thang) 1 ii m1 1V, Vv 7 [Dia diem Rul CS9| Rips | Re es [Re CS RCS SRL GCs: LaiChau | 73 | 49 | 53 [ 12 | 48 | -8 [114] -21 | 341 [70 [485 | 62 Dien Bien | 33 | 14 | 35] 2 | 52 | 0 | 82 | -24 | 282 | 100 [346 | 71 Son La 61 | 45" | 22 [4 [55 [is | 65] -st | 328 1s? | 277[" 23 SaPa 183 | 127 | 89 | 10 [137 [31 | 179 | -18 | 675 [322 [434 | 41 LaoCai__ | 35, | 34 [69 | 33 [99 [39 [94 | -26 | 300 [91 | 361 [25 yenBa | 37 | 5 | 37 | 13 | 59 [ -15 | 60 | -71 | 208 | -is | 207 | -100 HaGiang | 32 | -2 | 54 | 10 | 169 | 119 | 68 | -a8 | 456 | 172 | 401 | 36 Tuyén Quang | 31 | 10 25 | -7 | ot | 17 | 61 | -41 | 241 | 30 | 353 | 99 Lang Son | 18 | -6 | 15\[-26 | 40 | -13 | 38 | -58 | 108 | -57 | 251 | 51 Cao Bing [1s [2 fax fa [aa [5s [38 [-s0 [ior [7 [sin | 261 Thai Nguyen | 14 [8 [16 | -19 | 27 | -28 | 50 | -68 | 185 | -49 | 231 [-123 Bic Giang [28 | 8 |10"|-18 [-is'| 7-3 | 13 | -86 [287 | 85" | 277 | 50 Phi Tho [38 | 6 | 2h [it9 | 25 ]/-25 [173 | -36 [215 [13 [198 | -50 HoaBinh | 19 [4 [73 [52] 10 [\-17 [31 | -65 [426 | 192 | 347 | 89 HA Noi 9 [10 [18-8 [on] 33 [so [31 [214 [26 [240 | 0 Tien Yen |_15_| “17 [ 24 [-12 [°37_[-15 [33 | -97 [303] ot [482 [112 BaChay | 5 | -16[ 17 | -11 [12-31 | 17 | -6r | 413 | 188 | 368 | 77 Pholién [| 6 | -19 | 21-| -13.[ 14 [.-34 [28 | -65 | 281,| 78. | 314 | 74 Thai Binh | 13 [ -15 | 19 | -12 | 34 | -32 | 73 [-14 | 309 | 141 | 08 | -138 Nam Dinh | 4 | -24 | 19 | -16 | 19 [-32 [46 | -36 [366 [191 131 | -62 | Thanh Hoa [3 | -22 | 8 | -23 | 27 | -14 | 35. | -24 | 260 | 103'| 132 |/-47 Vinh 24 [28 [19 [as [84 [ 37 [ae [15 [263 [127] 35 | 81 Dong Hoi_| 13 | -49 | 32 | -11 | 82 | 38 | 83 [27 [223 | 116 | 6 | -78 Hué 73. | -88.[ 36. | -27 [ 22, [-25 | s6 [4 | 242 | 160.]-89 | 28 [-paNang [733 [-63 [31 [2 [4 [18 | 3| 86 [39 | -24 | 104 | 17 | Quang Ngai | 63 | -68 [4 [12 [10 [28 | 9 | -29 [103 [37 [7 | 83 Quy Nhon_ [15 | 50 [30 | is | 4 [20 | 27 [5 | 50 | -13 [0 | 62 Play Cu o [3 [0 [7 | 1 [7 [19 | -76 [270 | 4a" [i403 | 86 B.MaThuot | 0 | -4 [0 | -6 | 51 | 29 | 49 | -a8 | 162 | “64 | 263 [722 Da Lat 0 [8 [62 [21 | 120 [70 | 102 | -s0 [123 |-101 [204 [31 NhaTrang | 1-46 [14 | -3 | - [32] 18 [-15.[ 53, [2 [8 [41 Phan Thiet | 0 | -1 [0 | - | - [5 [65 [33 [92 | -43 [445] 3 VingTiu | 0 [2 | 0 | 1 | - | 5 | 5 | 28 | 126 | -62 | 609 | 403 Tay Ninh | 0 | -7 [| 0 | -5 | 0 | -26| 59 | -28 | 72 |-136| 329 | 93 TPHCM | 0 | -14[ 0 | -4 -10 [39 [9 [71 [-147 | 262 | -50 TiénGiang [| 1 | -4 | 0 | -2 | - [| -4 | - [-55[ 32 [-135] 127] -71 Cia Tho PO P12 On| ay to] 2 eae | 138 fe | Ves" | 23 Séc Tran; o | -8 | o [2 7 - [is a [sr | 349123 [38 | 60 RachGia | 0 [-11 | 0 | -7 | - [36 [=| 98 [143 [8s [ 270 | 9 Ca Mau. 4 [-12[ 0 | -8 | 1 | -33 | 04 |-100| 274'f 2" | 354 faeBang 10b. Téng luong mua va chuiin sai cc thang trong nam 2002 (mm ) Thang] VIL Vill IX x XI XU__} rng | Tong tea sadn | [STR] SPR fespR jes} Res] RL es aaa ay Lai Chau | 766 [332713 | 342[164[ 6 [198] 117 | 62 | 9.3 [87 [66.4[3104/ 1037] 150.1 Dien Bien [382 68 | 319| -27 | 140] -7 | 73 [ 9 | 74 [48.4] 106 [87.4] 1924] 342 [121.6 SonLa | 261 | -16 | 241 | -39 | 36 |-119] 94 | 32 | s2 [17.5] 71 [58.3] 1563) 119 [108.2 SaPa__ [354] -99 | 422 | -56 | 186 [-147] 197] -12 [118 |-3.6| 477 | 122 [3151] 317 [111.2 Lao Cai_ [254] 47 | 453/123 | 91 [-150[ 98 |-33 [53 [1.6] 77 [52.5] 1904] 140 | 107.9 Yen Bai | 255 | -91 | 228 |-172] 111 |-177] 115 | -52 | 30 |-29.8) 52_| 25.7] 1399] -708 | 66.4 Ha Giang [459 | -57 [sit | 90 [115 |-127[ 151 | -1 [26 | -78 | 102 [70.5] 2544] 113. [104.6 “Tuyen Quang | 396 | 161 | 171 |-133| 140-74 [143 | 31 [29 [-15.4] sa [35 [1705| 113 [107.1 Lang Son [268] 10 [192] -63 | 81 [-83 [176 | 97 | 59 [24.7[ 45 [22 [1291] -101 | 92.7 Cao Bing _[ 206 | -59 | 293 | 26 | 52 |-105] 111 | 25 | 31 | -13 | 54 | 35 [15721 130 | 109.0 Tai Newyen| 226 |-166] 199 |-191| 125 [-113[ 83 | -35 | 47 | 16 | 43 [19.5] 1246] -779] 61.5 Bac Giang [331 | 73 | 238] -66 | 87 [-119| 53 | -47 | 63 | 25 | 44 | 26 [1446] -72 [95.3 Pha Tho [261 |-121| 321 -7 | 126|-93 [163] 3 | 45 |-9.3| 62 [37.1] 1548] -301 | 83.7 Hoi Binh_| 274 | -57 | 104 |-238] 240 |[-103| 150] 28 | 49 [-4.5[ 48 [35.7] 1771 | -140| 927 262 | -26 | 202 [-116] 179 | -86 [128 | -3 [st-| 7.6 | 60 [36.6[1433]-243| 85.5 Tien Yen_ [343 [-103| 160|-316| 61 |-300| 124] -18 | 73 [29.1] 61 1716 | -639| 72.9 Bai Chay [319 | -53 | 149 [-309| 105 [-210[ 84 [43 [a7 | 9 [42 1578] -437| 78.3, Phu Lign_[233 | -41 | 189-160] 108 |-191[ 103 | -53 [78 [23.6] 85 1460 |-347 | 808 Thai Binh [295 | or | 192 |-1s0| 61 |-283/ 231] 14 | 69 [-11.1] 98 1442| 364 | 79.9 Nam Dinh | 136 | -94 [178 |-147| 87 [-261] 195 | 0. | 58 [-9.5| 72 |42.8|1311|-44 | 74.5 ‘Thanh Hoa | 247 | 44 [153 |-125] 255 |-149] 115 |-149] 80 [3.5 [53 [24.5] 1368|-378| 78.4 Vinh [122[ 0 [iss] o [531] 41 [433] 6 [128 -63.i[ 133 [64.3] 2006] 63 | 1033 Dong Hei_| 34 | -53 | 344 | 208 [487 | 42 [327 |-269| 206 |-160] 142 [13.1 [1978] -180[ 91.7 Hue 21 | -74 | 323 | 219 | 692 | 219 [1030] 234 | 492 | -89 | 272 480 | 116.7 Da Nang | 30 | -56 | 376 | 237 [527 | 177 [527 | -86 [470 | 104 | 212 385 [1185 Quing Neai| 50 | -26 | 285 | 163 | 289] 7 [326 ]|-261[ 600] 38 | 257 | -11 [2063]-229] 90.0 Quy Nhon | 26 | -29 | 201 | 142 | 427 | 182 | 260 |-203] 622 | 199 | 341 | 171 | 2023] 330 | 119.5 Play Cu_[ 515 | 62 [ 368 [-125 97 | 13 faasal_ 1 [-12.3[2139[-115] 95.0 B.Ma Thuot| 88 |-178] 527 | 234 -130[ 91 | -2 [5 |-17.1] 1593] -180[ 89.8 Da Lat 141 | -82 | 397 | 188 -11 | 147 38 | 9 |1798] 69 | 104.0 Nha Trang | 14 | -29 | 38 | -13 -120| 724 | 3 1601] 242 | 117.8 Phan Thiet | 119 |-105] 299 | 124 45 [15 1116 | -36 | 96.9 Ving Tau_| 202 | -11 | 117] -61 109 | 75 1582] 236 | 117.5, Tay Ninh_| 145-102] 216| -9 30 [174 1734 -82 | 95.5 TP H-CM | 107 |-187] 78 [-192 18 [132 1310-621 | 678 Tién Giang. S18 Cin Tho 85.9 Sée Trang. 96.8 Rach Git 93.0 Ca Mau 97.4Bangl0c.Téng Ivong mua va chuan sai 6 thang mia mua va c nam 2002 (mm) Dia Diém Mia mua (V =X) ‘Toan nam (I= XI) R cs R cs Lai Chau 2667 929 3104 1037 Dign Bien 1542 214 1924 342 ‘Son La 1237 38 1563 119 Sa Pa 2268 49, 3151 317 Lio Cai 1457 9 1904 140 Yén Bai 1124 1399 -708 Ha Giang, 2093 2544 3 ‘Tuyén Quang 1444 1705 13 Lang Son 1076 1291 -101 Cao Bang 1364 1572 130 Thai Nguyen 1049 1246 “779 Bac Giang 1273 1446 -72 Phit Tho, 1284 1548 301 Ho’ Binh 1541 W771 -140 Hi Noi 1225 1433 -243 Tien Yen 1473 1716 ~639 Bai Chay 1438 1578 437 Phir 1228 1460 347 Thai Binh 1156 1442 -364 Nam Dinh 1093 1311 -448 Thanh Hod 1162 1368. 378 Vinh 1572 2006 63 Dong Héi 1420 1978 -180 Hué 2397 3348 480 Da Nang 1603 2466 385 Quing nga 1060 “163 2063 -229 Quy Nhon 964 17 2023 330 Play Cu 2125 55 2159 -115 Buon Ma Thuot 1397 =132 1593 -180 Da Lat 1389 9 1798 09 Nha Trang 657 =32 1601 242 Phan Thiet 1035 7 1116 -36 Vang Tau 1502 288 1582 236 ‘Tay Ninh 1339 =189 1734 -82 TPH-CM 1023 ~665 1310 -621 ‘Tien giang 676 ~568 759 -107 Can Tho 1095 -282 1415 -232 Soe Trang 1642 79 1799 ~60 Rach Gid 1635 55 1915 -144 Ca Mau 1871 “73 2303 “635.2. Dac 5.2.1. Dae diém chung vé tink hinh mua vita mua to dién rong nam 2002. Nam 2002, trén toan lanh thé c6 19 dot mua vita, mua to dién rong, xap xi mic TBNN va ft hon 3 dot So véi nam 2001. Dot mua vita mua to dién rong xdy ra sém nhat 6 Bac Bo tir7-12/V do hoi ty gitta déi gié tay tren cao va tin phong dong nam cia ria ép cao can nhiet di, Bot mua cudi cing xiy ra G Trung va Nam Trung BO tt 12-15/XI do téc dong cia khong hi lanh (KKL) va hi tu gid trén cao. Kh vita mua to dién rong kéo dai trén 5 ngay trong dé dot mua kéo dai nhat x: iy rad Tay Neuyén tit 12-21/VIII (10 ngay) do hoat dong manh cita dai hoi tu nhiet doi voi sy 6n dinh cia gié mia Tay Nam. Khoang 40% s6 dot mua vita mua to dién rong chi trong thdi gian ngan 2-3 ngay; khoang 20% s6 dot cdn lai. c ngdy. Phan bé théi gian xay ra mua vira, mua to dién rong d6i v6i céc khu vuc trong nim 2002 duge trinh bay é Bang 11. Bing 11 cho thay mut 16n nuim 2002 xiy ra tuong d6i phii hop v6i quy Iuat khi hau, tuy nhién phan b6 khong déu gita efe Khu vue, Chi e6 thang VII, IX. mua lin xy jém cc dot mua vita, mua to dién rong nam 2002. Bing 11. Phan b6 mura In died ron theo thingy va khu vue trong nam 2002 Thang v vi} vir | vin | 1x x XL | Tong Khu vu o Bac BO 3 1 1 2 ~ te * 7 ‘Trung Bo = I 1 I 3 3 9 2 2 Tay Nguyen 4 - = 1 1 x g Nam Bo : : - 1 1 - : ‘Tong 3 1 2 5 3 3 3 20 Tinh hinh dién bién cy thé ct cae dot mua vita mua to nim 2002 trong pham vi c& nuée duoc trinh bay t6m tit qua bang 12a, 12b.Bang 12a. Tom tat dac diém cac dot mua vita mua to dién rong nam 2002 86 | Neay | Cap. [Khu vue] Lene mua | Noi co luong mua) inh the thai tiét TT| than; intra mua pho bién Ion nhat gay mua én . (mm) (mm) Cita Cam: 402 mm [Ria ap cao cin nhiet déi 1 | 7-12V | Mua | Bic Bo | 100-180 [Phi Ly: 328mm [tang cuémg. Tin phong SE] via, phat ign manh hoi tw v6i mura to Isis. SW tude rank thap| trong ddi gid tay [Tho Binh (TO): 13-14/V| Mua | Bic BO | 80-120 [265 mm, Viet Lam]. Ben Guin Y af ae (153mm etn A ph mua to Vinh Tuy (Ha one i IGiang): 190 mm Viet Lam (Ha | KKL nén dai thap 6 uc 3 |23-24/V| Mua | Bic BO 70-100 |Giang): 317 mm, | di-qua bd két hop voil vira, Hoang Xu Phi (Ha |hdi tu gid SW tren cao. mua to IGiang): 210 mm [Pac ma (Lai chau):|Ranh thip co true di qual 4 }10-14/VI| Mua | Bac BO 100-150 {216 mm, Pho Bic b6 véi ving ap thap| vita, IRang: 240 mm, |tén tai tir mat dat ti muc mua to Ban Cling: 245, |500mb tren khu. vue Bic Imm, Na Hang: 290 bo. Imm, Thé Binh (TQ): 287 mm | 100-180 [Na Hang (Tuyen [Dai thip bi_nén yéu kei S| 28/VII- | Mua to Bac a T.Quang, |Quang): 263 mm, |hgp véi ria ATND sau anh] IVIL Bic Can: |Thé Binh: 312 mm |huong true tigp ATND cof Trung Bol’ 200-250 am 6 Bac BQ, tn tai den '5000m. 100-150, |Lai Chau: 420mm [Ranh dp thap bi nén vd 6 |9-13/VIII|Mua to} Bic Bo | Lai Chau | Nam Po: 350 mm |viing thap 06 tam 6 Bic bo] va Thanh] 200-300 | HAGiang(TV): phat trign dén 500m Hod | Déng bing [317mm chiu anh hung cia Bic Bo: phia bac dii ITCZ. c6 true 50-70 ldgc theo vi tuyén 14 15°N néi véi vang ATND] en BD Ving nai] 100-150 |Lao Cai: 311mm | Ving ap thip 6 Bac bo 7 |16-8/VIII| Mua to | va Trung ‘Doan Hing: phat trién 5000m ket hop| \du BicBo 218mm fla phia bic ITCZ, va ria| phia tay con bio s6 3 (6 b@ vao Trung Qt Ly Son (Quing TTCZ c6 true doe the 8 16- |Muato|TirNghé} 150-200 |Ngai): 437 mm 15°N, két hop anh] 19/VIIL Andén Nam Dong (TTH): ‘BinhDinh| 337 mm. [Ky Anh: 332 mmBang 12b. Tom tat dac iém cc dot mua vita mua to dién rong nam 2002 So | Ngiy | Cap’ [Khu vue Nov ed Iwan mua} Ffinh the thoi tit TT) thang | mua |) mua gay muta lon Dic Lac, IRia phia nam ITCZ va gid 9 | 12-21/ | Mua | Tay Déng 500 mm, {mba SW hoat dong manh. vit | vita, | Nguyen Daklip : 823 mm mura to BioL6e: 707 mm DakNéng:595 mm Mut Sée Trang: ]Ria phia nam dai TTCZ. val 10} 18-20/| via, | Nam Bo} 80-110 [182 mm, Cin’ Tho!|gié mia SW hoat done! VILL} mura to 132mm, Kien |manh, Giang:125 mm Anh hudng ket hop cia 11 | 18-25/| Mua to] Cac tinh | 200-400 | Chu Lé 617mm |nhiéu loai hinh thé Synop| IX ven bién Son Diem — hic _nhau: ITCZ, KKL| Trung BO! 831 mm. kém front va hoat dng cial luGi cao can nhiet dé. KonpLong: phia nam ITCZ va gid 12 }16-24X] Mua | Tay | 100-200 |241:mm, DacLay: mia SW hoat dong manh. vita, | Nguyen 247 mm mua to Mang Canh: 272 mm, PoMaRé: 327 mm, Bio Loc: 340 mm Ta Lai: 291 mm. [Ria phia nam ITCZ va gid] 13 ]17-24IX| Mua | Nam BO | 100-150 Déng Phi: {mia SW hoat dng manh. vita 281 mm, Ca Mau: 279 mm. TwHa | 200-300 | Thuong Nhat: |KKL kém front lanh, 14 | 6-7/X | Mua to| Tinh dén 326 mm, Nam Q. Ngai Dong: 379 mm TirHa | 300-400 Binh ign: |KKL Kem front_nén dail 15 | 14-16/X | Mua to| tinh dén 478mm, __|thap 6 true qua Trung bo] Q. Nam Phii 6c: 483 mm, vi nhigu dong s6ng_ trén| Hué: 501 mm. _|cao TiHa | 150-250 ‘Thach KKL véi_ gid mia dong| 16 | 24-26/X | Mua to|Tinh dén] Trung Tring | 555 mm, Bong bic hoat dong manh. K.Hoa | Bo 400-600 | Ha: 600 mm Cita Viet: 608 mm TwHa | 200-300 Nha Trang: [KKL vdi gi6 mia dong| 17 }11-4/x1| Mura to [Tinh dé 330mm [bic hoat dong manh. K.Hoa Ninh Ho’: 378mm 18 [6-12/X1[ Mua | Tw Ha | 200-400 | Chau 6:537mm. [Anh hudng cla d6i gid “vita, [Tinh dén Tuy Hoa: 457 mm |dong bac! hoat dong manh| muta to |_K.Hoa 4: Iphat trign len céc ting ca 19 [12:15/X1} Mua’ | Tu Thira | 150 - 200 IKKL két hop hoi tu gid vita, | Thien ten cao mua to | Hué dén K.Hoa ‘Tra My: 462 mm.5.2.3. Date diém hoat déng cia cdc loai hinh thé synop gay mua l6n dién rong Cée dot mua vira, mua to dién rong nam 2002 thudng xay ra trong cing mot khoang thi gian 6 mot hay nhiéu khu vuc lién ké hoac khu vuc mua Ién phat trién mé rong theo thai gian, Cac hé thong synop gay mua 1én cé thé chi do mot hé théng thdi tiét nhung ciing cé thé do nhiéu hé thOng thoi tiét két hop hodc phat trign ké tigp tir he thong nay sang hé thong khdc. Trong nhiéu hé thong synop cing tac dong gay mua Ién dién rong, ching ta khé c6 thé tach biét duge mot céch dinh luong theo ty trong cia timg hé thong, xéc dinh chinh xac mic dO anh hudng truc tigp hay gidn tiép, thoi gian bat dau va thoi gian hé thong synop két thie su anh hung. Tuy nhién, can cit vao dac diém, dién bien qué trinh mua ching ta c6 thé xac dinh mot cach tung d6i loai hinh thé synop gay mua 16n nam 2002. Khac v6i quy luat chung vé loai hé théng synop chit yeu gay mua vita, mua to dié rong hang nam 1a su ving bong cia loai hinh thé synop quan trong: d6 1 hinh thé bao va ATND trong nam 2002. 19 dot mua vira, mua to dién rong dac trung trong nam 2002 chi yéu do KKL, ap thap bi nén. Ngoai ra con do XTND phat trién tir tng thap len do cao 5000m, surhdi ty gid c6 huGng va nguén gc khie nhau hodc su két hgp ctia rat nhiéu he théng synop cing tic dong Bang 13 Bang 13. Cac I nh thé synop chinh gay mua ln dién rong nam2002 Khu ve] paono | Tne | TAY | Nam po Ty le Hinh thé synop BiCBO bos Nguyen | Nam BO) Tong | (ay Khong khi lanh (KKL), 6 6 32 Dai Hoi tu Nhiét déi Pe I 2 2 5 26 Dai dp thap bi nén 4 2 4 2 Xoay thaip phat ign dén ae 2 2 in Hi tu gid trong tang doi 1 1 5 fu : ‘Cac loai hinh thé synop két i i Z hop. , “Tong cde loai hinh the m j0# _ Ps 6 6 synop * HT Dai dp thap bi né Bing 13 cho thay nguyén nhan gay mua vira mua to dién rong trong nam 2002 6 Bo chu yéu do hoat dong cita dai ap thap bi nén béi tac dong cita KKL & phfa bic hoac dp cao can nhiét di lain vé phia tay. D6i véi cdc tinh Trung BO vai > KKL cing g6p phan quan trong trong qué trinh hinh thanh mua Idn du6i tac dong hiéu tng cia dia hinh. Ngoai ra hoat dong cita xody thaip phat trién lén do cao kho’ing 5000m trong ting d6i luu 6 Bae BO tao diéu kign thuan loi phat trign doi luu sau gay mua vita mua to cing 6 tin sudt ding ké trong mia muta nam 2002. 2 ldn gay mua vita, muta to cd hai khu vue Bac BO va Bée Trung BO7.LU LUT, UNG NGAP Mita 1d nam 2002, tren ede he théng song chinh toan quéc xiy ra khong déng bd. Li cdc song & Bic BO xiy ra sm, dén dap, dién bién phiic tap, két thtic s6m va c6 dinh phé bien thude loai 16n va dic biet 16n; 6 Nam BO xay ra ld kép hai dinh thudc loai sm va dae biét 1én, gay ngap lut nghiém trong kéo dai, bat Igi cho vige phong tinh; & Trung Bo va Tay Nguyen Ia én sm, ket thiic s6m, dién bién céc tran li khong phic lap v6i dinh 1a 6 mee nhé va & mae trung binh, Li cae song & Bac Trung BO (song La va song Ci) thude loai 1én, cao hon béo dOng III, riéng tren song Ngan Pho tai tram Son Diem xiy ra ld lich sit. 7.1. $6 tran li © Trong nam 2002, tren 20 song chinh & nude ta xy ra 106 tran IG, vuot mie trung binh nhigu nam (TBNN 12 92 tran) 14 tran. * Tren cae song chinh 6 Bic Bo da xy ra 71 tn, nhiéu hon tung binh nhiéu nam trén hé théng séng Héng 1a 50 tran, phan bé chit yéu tir thang V irén hé théng s6ng Thai Binh 14 20 tran, phan b6 tir thang V dén things VII Dinh li cao nhat ndm trén cdc song pho bién cao hon bao dong III, riéng dinh Iii tai Yén Bai tren song Thao 6 mite xp xi béo dong III; tai Ben Dé tren song Hoang Long & miéc thaip hon bio dong I. « Trén (TBNN ng chinh 6 Trung BO, da xay ra 31 tran, xp xi mite trung binh nhiéu nam la 33 tran). Trén mdi song, xy ra trung binh 2 - 4 tran 1d, riéng trén song Tra Khuic 6 tran, phan b6 vao thing VIIL, thing IX 6 Bic Trung Bd, vao thang IX, ing X 6 Trung va Nam Trung BO. Dinh ld cao nhat nam trén cdc song 6 Bac Trung Bo G mete bao dong IIL, riéng trén song MA tai Giang thaip hon bao dong I; trén cic song 6 Trung, Nam Trung Bo phé bién & mttc béo dong II va béo dong Il. thing IX véi dinh © Tren song Citu Long da xay ra 2 dot Ill vao gitta thang VIT va c 10 thudc loai dac biet 16n, gay ngap lut kéo dai. Tm lai, s6 tran 1d nam 2002 tinh chung tren cdc hé théng song chinh & mie cao hon TBNN va nhiéu hon s6 tran 1d nam 2001 (103 tran). Mia 10 xiy ra sém 6 Bic BO va & Nam BO. La, lut trén song Ba, song Héng, sng Cuiu Long va song La xdy ra déic biét lon va de lit. Phan bé cae tran Id theo cae théng trong mita Idi 2002 trén 20 he thong song chinh trong cé nude dugc thong ké trong bang 14.Bang 14, Phan bé cac tran la (bién do trén 1m) theo thang trong mia li 2002 86 Thang i TT Pong vipM]wivm[ im |x |x| Oo" 1 | Hong zy 1 4 2 Z E Tonk ing 2 [Da nel netiel wed take eealics Gl a ala well 3__| Thao 2 Wl Ahr [vnSp elon Sehe [Hooks poly amra Kn dionl roll 4 [te wbosfieae Jesiain|ay at os opie hone vabmabadiera 2 ‘Thai Binh I I I Zz t . “ = 6 | Gu ie eee ea eee a 5 7 _ | Thuong 1 1 1 2 E > oi 5 8). [Luc Nam 1 2 1 1 5 a Z 5 9 | Hoang Long B Z z 1 é y 1 to [Ma | le aelen [ea dignfing A. 1 [> tn [ree 12 La - 2 = 1 1 1 3 13_|[ Gianh Se ad FICE SY tg LTV rea ae ey 14 | Huong min [now 1 oral che [BANS dail wale oka dae 15 [Thu Bon Eiht Re Br ean? eal] Sage] Ag PE ROMA 5 16 Tra Khiic - - - - 3 I v3 6 17__ [Ba Ring s C : : 1 1 2 4 18 [Kon felipe 2 pal sed gol Med la ed 19 Tién - = I 1 2 20 | Haw St cma latie eae iar tied 2 Cong 14 faa [22 [a [a2 [2 fo | 06 7.2. Mue nude cao nhat nam 2002, Dinh li trén cae song chinh Bic BO, Nam Bo va Bic Trung BO thude loai lén va dac biét l6n; 6 Trung va Nam Trung BO va Tay Nguyén thudc loai vira va nhd, trén song Hoang Long va song Ma thudc loai rit nhd. © Trén hé thong song Hong, dinh li ph6 bién cao hon béo dong Ill tir 0,80 - 1,02 m, cao hon trung binh nhiéu nam kho’ng 1,19 - 1,69 m va. déu xuat hién vao déu,trung tuin thing VIII, Dinh li song Lo va song Thao thap hon dinh Id nam 2001, Dinh 10 song Da va séng Héng cao hon dinh Ii nam 2001 va thudc loai dac biét én. Dinh la nam 2002 trén song Héng tai Ha Noi li 12,30 m (18/VIID), cao hon trung binh iéu nam 1 1,53 rh, cao hon bao dong III 14 0.80 m, cao hon dinh li nam 2001 1a 0,99 m va déing hang thit 8 tong 100 nam quan tric, sau dinh Ii céc nam 1940, 1945, 1947, 1969, 1971, 1986, 1996. Luu lwong dinh lit nam trén séng Da la 15200 m’/s (08/VII1), 16n hon trung binh nhiéu nam khoang 5200 m’/s va ding hang thi 8 trong day sO ligu quan tric 100 nam qua, nam 1904, 1945, 1948, 1964, 1969, 1971 va 1996, Hai tran 1d dac biét Ién xdiy ra lien tigp trongnia dau thing VIII véi lw Inong 1én nhat dén hd 1 15000 m/s 4 gis 2/VIT) va 15200 m'/s (7 gid 12/VII1), déu ding hang the 8, thi 9 trong day s6 ligu quan trac Ia dieu chua time thiy, Binh la nam 2002 trén song Thao tai Yen Bai la 31,94 m (19/VIID, cao hon trung binh nhiéu nam 1a 1,19 m, thap hon béo dong IIT 14 0,06 m; song Lo tai Tuyén Quang 1a 27,02 m (02/VII), cao hon bao dong III 1a 1,02 m o hon TBNN 1a 1,69.m. Trén hé thong song Thai Binh, dinh li nam 2002 déu cao hon bio dong II tir 0,28 dén 0,48 m va thdp hon dinh 1d nam 2001 khoang 0,30 - 0,98 m, thude loai 1én; riéng dinh 1d ten song Luc Nam cao hon dinh 1a nam 2001 (6,06 m), Dinh 1d tren song Cu tai Dép Cau 1a 6,28 m (08/VIID, cao hon bao dong Il 1a 0,48 m; wen song Thuong tai Phii Lang Thuong 1a 6,08 m (O1/VIID, cao hon béo dong Il 1 0,28 m; tren song Luc Nam tai Luc Nam I 6,20 m (31/VIID), cao hon bao dong III 180.40 m va trén song Thai Binh tai Pha Lai 1a 5,82 m (04/VII), cao hon béo dong 111 12.0,32 m; Trén song Hoang Long tai Bén Dé, dinh li 1a 2,38 m (20/VII1), thaip hon bio dong 118 0,62 m, thap hon TBNN 18 1,10 m, thap hon dinh Iii nim 2001 140,77 m. * Trén ede song chinh 6 mién Trung: Dinh li nam 2002 6 Bac Trung B@ tén song MA thudc loai nhd, nhé hon béo déng I; trén sng Ca thudc loai vita, 6 mite bao dong ILL; trén song La thude loai 16n, cao hon bio dong III; frén song. Ngan Phé tai Son Diem xay ra la lich sir; trén céc song 6 Trung va Nam Trung Bo phé bién thap hon trung binh nhiéu nam (tri tén song Huong tai Hué cao hon TBNN); phé bién cao hon béo dong III khodng 0,16 - 0,74 m va 6 mée binh thudng (tri trén song Gianh tai Mai Héa va trén song Thu Bén tai Cau Lau thap hon bdo dong I khoing 0,24 - 0,31 m, trén song Da Rang tai Phi Lam cao hon bao dong I 14 0,36 m). ° Dinh lit lén nhat nam 2002 trén trung luu va ha luu song Mé Kong thugc logi dace biét lén: tai Luang Prabang 1a 19,44 m (23/1X), tai Vién Chan 18 12,60 m (23/1X), cao hon dinh li TBNN, dting thit 2 trong sé 1iéu quan tric 70 nam, sau dinh Id nim 1966; tai Kratie i 22,49 m, thap hon dinh 1a nam 2001 khoang 0,4 m, ding ther 5 sau dinh 10 cdc nam 1978, 1996, 2000, 2001; tai Phnom Penh (trén song Bassac) la 10,65 m (29/IX), tai Cang Phnom Penh 1 9,77m (30/IX), déu thap hon dinh Iii nam 2001 khodng 0,10 m; tai Tan Chau tren song Tién la 4,82 m (30/1X), cao hon mete bio dong III 1a 0,62 m, cao hon dinh 10 nim 2001 12 0,04 m va tai Chau Béc én song Hau li 4,42 m (30/IX), cao hon bio dong III 14 0,92 m, U hon dinh 1d nam 2001 khoang 0,06 m va déu thudc loai i hon dinh li nam 2000; riéng dinh la tai cac tram cudi nguon thude khu vue Dong Thap Mudi: My Thuan (1,91 m), My Tho (1,66 m), Bén Lite (1,45 m), cao hon dinh Ii nam 2001 va la dinh cao nhat trong hon 40 nam qua. Muc nude dinh 1a cao nhat nam 2002 tren cdc song chinh duge théng ké trong Bang 15.Bang 15. Muc nude cao nhat nam 2002 trén cac song chinh tai i@t Nam Hmax 2002 Mic BB So v6i TBNN So véi 2001 ‘Tram ay | Mue | Cap | Cao Chenh [Cao nhait |Chenh fai nuée | béo |hon BD reap" ech | 2001, | tech (cm) _| dong | (cm) (cm) | (cm)_| (cm) [Hoa Binh* |8/VII1 15200 | - 2 10000 | 5200 | 11500 | 3700 1 2 |Thao Yén Bai {19/VIII_ | 3194 | I 6 3075 9 3229 | -75 3 |Lo |T Quang 2/vil_| 2702 | Mm 102 | 2533 169 2864 | - 162 4 |Héng Ha Noi** | 18/VIIL | 1230 |} TT 80. 1077 152 1130 93 5 [Cau Dip Cau 3/VIIl | 628 I 48 623 5 726 -98 6 [Thuong |PL Thuong} 1/VIII | 608 il 28 610 72 654 -46 7 _|Luc Nam|Luc Nam | 31/VIl | 620 TL 40 607 we 606 14 8_|ThaiBinh |Pha Lai 4/VIll 582 il 32 535, 47 612 - 30 9 |H. Long |Bén Dé 20/VII | 238 I 62 348 | - 110 315 217. 10 |Ma Giang, 19/VII | 228 I - 122 | 498 270. 321 =93 LL ca INam Dan | _22/1X 782 I of 689 93 706 76 12 [La Linh Cam | 21/1X mM i 121 481 290, 525 246 13 |Gianh {Mai Héa 20/1X | 469 i -31 656 | - 187 624 155 14 |Huong [Hue 16/X. 374 Mm 74 350 24 296, 78 15 {Thu Bén |Cau Lau 26/X 296 I -14 358 ~ 62 415 |-119 16 |Tra Khtic|TraKhic | 25/X | 609 | m | 39 | 630 | -21 671 | -62 17 |Kon [Tan An 26/X_| 776 | Ul 16 | 801 |.-25 | 773 6 18 |Da Rang [Phi Lam WUXI 236 I 36 345 | - 109 261 - 25 19 {Tién —_[TanChau | 301X | 482 | m | 62 | 419 |. 63 478 4 20 [Hau Chau Doc | 30/1X 442 Il 92 388 =o 448 -6 Ghi cht: * Tren song Da tai Hoa Binh 1a so ligu lute lugng dén hé (don vi 1a m/s ). ** Trén song Hong tai Ha Noi, muc nude cao nhat [a tri s6 tinh ton hodn nguyen, © Thoi gian xudt hién dinh lit ném. Dinh lit cao nhdt nam 2002 xudt hién khong dong bo é Bac BO: vio cudi thing VII va vao dau thing VIII tren cac song Luc Nam, song Lo, song DA va hé thong song Thai Binh; vao nia cudi thing VIII tren song Thao, song Hoing Long va ha luu song Héng; & Trung B6 vao cudi thang IX trén song Ca, song La, song Gianh, rigng s ii cudi thang X tren cic song Huong, song Thu Bén, . song Kon; vao diu thang XII tren song DA Ring; 6 Nam Bo vao cudi thang IX. 7.3. Mot s6 tran Iii 16n nhat nam 2002 tren cac song chinh, 7.3.1. Trén lit lén nhat tren Be bid ae Hoi va as Thdi Binh. dau Wane Vil tren, gong Lb vache as aa tom ae Hoare en a gia han VIII (Bang 16).Biéu 16. Dac trung tran li lén nhat nam 2002 trén cdc song 6 Bac BO Chan ta Dinh la em Song Tram Neay ] Gig |Muemude! Neay |G. [Muenude| “(.) ‘Thing (cm) _| thang (cm), 7 Lai Chau O/VIL 07 17132, LI/VIL | 06 18421 1289 Pi THO H.Binh @| 97vitt | 19 [4400 mys] t2/vuML | 07, [15200.m'%5|10800 mis [Ben Ngoe givin [05 | 1580. | r7vime | 90 | 2027 547 Lao Cai om | 07 | 7814 | evi | 17 8199 385 Thao lyén Bai oni | 19 | 2876 | 17m | 13 | 3166 200 Phi Tho iovitt | 07 | roar | isi | oF [1913 | 272 Ha Giang O/VILL ol 9568 1O/VIIT.| 20. 10181 613 16 fruyen Quang | o/vin | 13 [2037 | vv | 20 | 2672 7H Vu Quang oni [16 [1529 [azar | 20 | 2019 | 571 i Viet Tri 1O/VIIT OL 1239 18/VII | 04 1645 406 Hong. Tia Noi iowur| 07 | 820 | isin | 16 | i201 | 38 ) [Thai Nguyén. 30/VIL 13, 2130 V/V 06 2679 549. CH, «Dap Cho 30/vl | 19 atl 3yvill | 04 028 217 aa ICiu Son sown | 13 [1326 | uve | 21 | 1592. | > 266 Thuong ToL Thuong | 30/ViI | 15 410 | vm | 17 | 608 198 Ichi son | 13 [416 | suv | o7 | 1233 817 ENam Toc Nam 30/V | 13 409 | ait | 23 | 620 211 T.Binh [Pha Lai 30/VIT | 14 41S | O4/VI | 04 582 167 Hung Thi awit | 13 | 717, | a/v | 07 |. 886, 69 H 10r6 [Ben Dé lo/vitt | 19 154 [aon | on [238 84 4@) Trén la tie 31/VI - 4/V HII, ln nhat nam trén song Lo va hé thong song Thai Binh. Tir ngay 31/VIl, do hoat dong cua ranh ép thap c6 truc qua Bic BO néi véi ving tam thap phu & phia tay Bac Bo phat trién dén do cao 5000 m, nén 6 Bic BO da xdy ra mot dot mua to trén dign rong, c6 noi muta rat to. Luong mua 5 ngay (tir 31/VI - 4/VIID phd bién tir 100 - 200 mm. Khu vue Dong Bac va ving ni phia Bac mua to dén rat to, luong mua pho bién ti? 150-200 mm, c6 noi tren 200 mm nhu: Ham Yén (Tuyén Quang) 226 mm, Na Hang (Tuyén Quang) 253 mm, Cho Méi (Thai Nguyén) 215 mm, V6 Nhai (Thai Nguyen) 215 mm, Tren cdc he thdng song & Bic BO da xudt hign dot 10. Li tren hé thong s6ng Thai Binh ya song Lo thude loai Idn va 1a dinh 1d cao nhat nim 2002. Tren sng Thao xay ra 1d nh6, Tren song Da da xdy ra tran 1a vi dinh thude loai lon, Li bat dau len tir dem 31/VIL. Luu luong dén hé Hoa Binh dat dinh la 15000 m'/s (4 gid 2/VIID). Nha may thuy dién Hod Binh da phi mé 6 cita x4 day voi litu long xA In nhat L& 10000 m’/s (1 gis 3/VIID). Trong dot Id nay, Nha mdy thily dién Hoa Binh da cit duge khoing 5000 m'/s dinh ld song D2. Tren song Lo tai Tuyen Quang, Id bat diiulen tit ngay 31/VIL, myc nuéc dat dinh Itc 14 gity ngay 2/VIIL 1a 27,02 m, cao hon bio dong IITA 1,02 m va fi dinh Id cao nhat nam 2002. - Tren song Héng tai Ha Noi, myc nude dat dinh thyc do 1a 11,43 m (5 gid 4/VIIN, thap hon bao dong III 12 0,07 m, bién do 1d 1a 2,62 m, ting v6i luu Iuong fa 12700 m’/s. - Trén hé théng song Thai Binh, xy ra dot li 1én, cao nhat nam 2002 véi dinh It cao hon béo dong III tir 0,28 dén 0,48 m. Dinh li tai Dap Cau 1a 6,28 m (4 gid 3/VIID, wén bao dOng IIT 1 0,48 m; tai Phi Lang Thuong 1a 6,08 m (17 gi’y I/VIMD, trén bio dong III 1a 0,28 m; tai Luc Nam 1A 6,20 m (23 gid 31/VID, tren bio dong IIT 18 0,40 m. Dinh 1d tai Phd Lai A 5,82 m (4 gid 4/VIID), cao hon mttc bio dong IIT 18 0,32 m. b) Trén la tir 8 - 18/VHI, lon nhat trén song Da, song Thao va ha luu song Hong. Trong nhing ngay 9 - 12/VIII, do anh hudng cia anh dp thap c6 truc TB-DN véi ving xody thaip t6n tai tir mat dat dén do cao 5000 m, két hop v6i hoat dong cila déi gid dong nam cita luGi Ap cao can nhiét d6i lan manh vé phia tay, da xay ra mua vita, mua to dién rong 6 Bac BO voi lugng mua phé bién 50 - 150 mm. Ti dem 13 dén 14/VIIL, do anh huémg ciia dai hoi ty nhiét déi c6 true doc 13°-14°N n6i véi tam ATND, két hop voi déi gid dong nam cua ria dp cao can nhiet déi, nén 6 Bic Bo lai tigp tuc xay ra mot dot mua_ vita, mua to, luong mua phé bign tir 100 - 250 mm. Khu vuc Lai Chau, Lao Cai, Yen Bai, Phi Tho, Ha Giang, Tuyen Quang, xdy ra mua to dén rat to; lugng mua phé bién tir 150-300 mm, c6 noi trén 400 mm nhu: Lai Chiu 533 mm, Nam Po 407 mm, Mudng Khuong 413 mm, Ha Giang 431 mm, Bic Quang 419 mm. Trén cac hé thong song & Bic Bo da xuat hign dot 1d 16n. La wen hé thong song a lu song Héng thudc loai dac biét 1én. Da va Tren song Lo xiy ra Id nhd. Trén song Thao xiy ra li 16n nhait nam 2002 voi dinh 10 tai Yen Bai 1A 31,66 m (13 gid ngay 17/VIID, cao hon bao dong I 12 0,66 m, bien do Id én 1 2,29 m. Trén song Da, 1d bat dau len ti ngay 9/VIIL. Muc nuée tai Lai Chau dat dinh 16n nhat nam 2002 1a 184,21 m lic 6 gid ngiy 11/VIII véi bien do Id ten 18 12,89 m va cubng sudit 1d len Lon nhat 1a 47 cm/h; lu lvong dén hé Hoa Binh dat dinh 14 15200 m‘s (7 gid 12/VIND). Dén 11 gid 12/VIII, Nha may thuy di¢n Hod Binh di phai mé cifa xd day s6 6 dé dim bio qui uinh van hanh hé. Luu lugng xa 16n nat 1 10000 m/s (12/VIII). Trong dot Ii nay, nha may thiy dign Hda Binh da eit duge kho’ng 5200 m/s dinh Id song Da, Muc nuée hé duy tri & mute 90,19 m (19 givr 1/VII) dén 94,67. m (19 gid 16/VII1) va gidim din xudng 93,58 m (16/VIII). Hé Hod Binh di tham gia cit dinh tai Ha Noi khoang 0,29 m. Téng lugng nuée da tich trong hé 12 6,72 ty m*. Mue nuéc hé Théc Ba tang tir 52,34 m (ngay 8/VIID dén 56,33 m (ngay 20/VII1); lw Juong I6n nhat dén hé Thac Ba 14 2000 m'/s (17/VII}) va luu long xa lin nhat tir h6 435 m'js (20/VIID. = Trén song Héng tai HA Noi, myc nue dat dinh thye do 1A 12.01 m (16 gity 18/VIII), cao hon bio dong HIT 14 0,51 m, bien do 1d 14 3,99 m, «ing véi Luu lwgng 1A 14 500 m’s. Theo tinh toan hoan nguyén, mue nude dinh Idi tai HA NOi 1a 12,30 m, cao hon mite bao dong IIT 1a.0,80 m. - Ha Iuu hé théng song Thai Binh xy ra dot 10 16n thit 2 trong nim 2002, chi yéu 1a do 1d song Hong phan qua song Dudng trén nén nuic kha cao 6 mang song v6i dinhla tai Dap Cau la 5,69 m (3 gid 19/VIID; tai Phi Lang Thuong 1a 5,65 m (4 gid 19/VIID; tai Luc Nam 1a 5,6 m (13 gid 15/VII), déu thap hon bdo dong IIL tir 0,11 - 0,20 m; dinh 1@ tai Pha Lai 1a 5,72 m (1 gid 19/VIID, cao hon mite bao dong IIL 1a 0,22 m. Dac trung muc nude chan, dinh va bién do cua tran 1 1én nhdt nam tren hé thong song Héng va song Thai Binh duge trinh bay 6 Hinh 2, 3,4.Q(m"'s) 16000 = 13000 m/s i 4 15200 ms ( 20hi1/VIN) 14000 = Lai Chau — - Nam Giang Ban Ciing ee ira Bit Oden 12000 10000 . | weichee ~ 7600 mis | (ORIIIVIN) Oat 8000 + i 6000 | 4000 : | on AP mtr E 208 (7h) My Being — 4980 mi) (14h VIN) 2000 i u 0 15VIL 251i Silt avi 24vit BUX 13IIX Time Hinh 2. Qua trinh li trén song Da muta li nam 2002Hem 3400 ———— 3200 (THIS) 3000 2800 Hig ORM 2701 cm (13n2IVIN1) 2600 —— Yen Bai — = Tuyén Quang Hea Noi 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 Hime, "= 1001 cm (16n/18/VIE1) 1200 1000 00 600 400 + ISIE 25 avin 14 ‘24 SIX 13/IX Thoi gian Hinh 3, Qué trinh la trén céc tram chinh hé thong song Héng mita la 2002El may = OBR nar TINT = 60cm: (4h/31V111) (23W31/VII) 660 4 640 + 4 4 4 H pag MUTE = 608cm 20 | (ITRLIVIN) F pag # = S82cm ne 2 (anravany 580 4 560 540 520 + | 500 + 480 pod — + Dip Cau | . 440 | — —Phi Lang Thuong | —Lac Nam 420 4 Phi Lai | | 400 +— 30VU LVI IVI SIV PVE IVIL, ALIVE A3IVI SIV how gian Hinh 4, Qua trinh la trén cdc tram chinh hé thong song Thai Binh mia li 20027.3.2. Tran lit lon nhat nam trén cdc song 6 mién Trung. Mua la ng & mién Trung trong nam 2002 dién bién binh thudng, it phic tap, xay ra it Iti véi dinh 1a thuge loai 16n va Ién hiém thay 6 Bac Trung BO; thudc loai tung binh 6 Trung va Nam Trung Bo, Tay Nguyen. Tran 10 16n nhat nam xay ra vaio cudi thing IX uén cic song 6 Bac Trung Bo, vio cuéi thing X tren cae song 6 Trung Trung Bo va vio du thang XI. G Nam Trung Bo (Bang 17) Bang 17. Dac trung tran ld lon nat nam 2002 trén cae song chinh mién Trung Chan It Dinh la Bién do] So sinh Song Tram. aye gan “Tho gian | Mu@nude] 1a) mite BOLLS (em) | em) Busi | Kim Tan | 6/VIL oN 841 210. | <1(1.09my Giing | 18/VIII royvinl | 228 Ho | <1.22 m) Nam Dan | 18/1x 22/1X 782 | 452. [<1 (0.08 m) Linh Cam | 18AX 15 2i/1X 7 756 [>I (1,21 m) Gian | Mai Hoa | 18/1X -24 20/1X 469 [493 | <1 @31 m) NhatLe [Le Thuy | isax 2 23/1X 170 168, | <1 0.3m) THin | Quing Ti | 14/X 8 16/X 298 | 290[ 51.@,98m) Bo Phu Oc 14x 57 15/X 455 | 308 [S11 (0.05 m) Huong Hud 15x 28 15/X 374 | 346. [>111 (0,74 m) VaGia | AiNghia | 24/X 4tL 26/X 787 376 | S11 17m) Thu Bon | CauLau [| 25/x 5 261X 296 | 291 [<10.14 m) ¥ Hgi An 25/X =15 26/X 97 1121} 5140.27 m) TrAKhie | Ta Khie | 24/7x 220 25K 609 | 389. [>111 (0,39 m) Song Vé | Song ve | 24/x 148. 25K 461 313 [>11 (051m) Kon | Thanh Hoa | 24/X 479 26)X 776 [297 [3111 (0.26 m) DARang | Cling Son | 6/XI 2734 XI 3070 | 336 | <11(@8m) S PhiLam | 6/XI 35 7X1 236 181_ | <1134m) caiN. | Ninh Hoa | 3/XI 193 4/xI 589 | 306 | >111 (0.89 m) Hoa Cai | Déng Trang] 2/X1 425 7X1 986 | 561 |

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