President Biden Is in No Rush To Help Ukraine Negotiate An End To The War-May 31

Nothing Rigorous About Sidhu's Prison
Term
SUDHIR BISHT
Navjot Sidhu's life inside jail won't be ten percent as hard as that of an ordinary convict
who is in jail for assault leading to unintentional death, argues Sudhir Bisht.
Navjot Singh Sidhu is in jail and not

surprisingly he will enjoy the
trappings of a great life there too.
Okay, a great life may be an
exaggeration, but Sidhu's life inside
jail won't be ten percent as hard as
that of an ordinary convict who is in
jail for assault leading to
unintentional death.
Mind you, he has been given one

year's rigorous imprisonment. In
Hindi, it is called 'सश्रम'
Edited, Printed & Published by Nitya Chakraborty on behalf of Panchsheel News Pvt. Ltd.
at D-34, Gulmohar Park, New Delhi-110049
imprisonment which means jail term
with hard labour.
That's why I was very surprised when

it became known that Sidhu would work
as a 'munshi' (a clerk) inside the
Patiala jail.
Now doing clerical work is hardly any

form of rigorous imprisonment.
In any case, some Indian clerks are

known to be easygoing. They report
late for work and take frequent
'chai-nashta' breaks. Their lunch
hour can extend for two hours and
they leave for home half-an-hour
before closing time.
"I came to office late and hence I
must leave early. I cannot be late
both sides," a clerk in Ludhiana once
told me when I asked him why he was
leaving office so early.
Sidhu will have to strive hard to

live up to that tradition.
I also understand that Sidhu will

enjoy a diet that may look bland, but
is exotic and expensive. Mercifully,
Sidhu will pay for his intake.
He takes about five or six meals and

mini meals in a day and this includes
strange juices, lesser known fruits
and aromatic varieties of tea.
Thank God, there would be no Patiala
pegs for him. Not because it can't be
arranged, but because Paaji is a
teetotaller.
I am not surprised that Sidhu will

have no sense of unease in the jail.
He has mended fences with Punjab's

powerful ruling people. Why did no
one notice Sidhu's high praise for
Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann?
'Mann has not changed at all after he

has become chief minister. He was
humble and listened to my
suggestions,' Sidhu said after their
meeting.
Am I suggesting that Sidhu had a
premonition that he would go to jail
and hence went overboard in his
praise for Mann?
Of course, I am suggesting just that.

He is known for being wily and has a
no holds barred approach in political
duels.
For him, his glory comes first and

foremost. Sidhu has always acted for
personal gain.
He was single-handedly responsible

for Captain Amarinder Singh's ouster
as Punjab chief minister. He accused
Captain Singh of being aloof and
inaccessible to party workers and the
public.
He talked about lack of democratic

values in the Akali Dal and often
accused the Badal family of nepotism
and 'parivarwad', but he had no
problems with the 'first-family-
first-always' rule in the Congress
where the troika of mother-son-
daughter have the first and the last
word.
Sidhu's assault on sexagenarian

Gurnam Singh in 1988 led to the
latter's death, even though Sidhu
never intended to kill the man.
Sidhu escaped jail for 24 years for
the violence he perpetrated. He
should serve his one-year jail term
with grace.
On the contrary he -- or maybe those

close to him -- is/are pleading for
the continuance of his earlier
lifestyle inside jail.
Why would the Aam Aadmi Party

government in Punjab let Sidhu enjoy
life inside prison? Bhagwant Mann,
the Punjab chief minister, is not
known to be a man who would like to
spite anyone or make someone's life
difficult.
He is also a clever politician; he
may be attempting to smother Sidhu
with kindness.
Sidhu will sooner or later cease to

be a Congressman as he was used by
the Gandhi scions to humble Captain
Amarinder. He will not be touched by
any other party.
AAP, the party in power in Punjab,

would have nothing to lose keeping
Sidhu in good humour inside Patiala
jail.
They can hope that he would remember

the good turn and not be a nuisance
for them after he completes his jail
term.
Another point I would like to mention
is the illness syndrome that grips
our leaders and bureaucrats when they
have to go to jail.
I am not linking this to Sidhu who

has been grappling with various
ailments for quite some time.
Politicians of all hues develop

conspicuous ailments when they are
jailed.
Hypertension, diabetes, painful

hernia, enlarged prostrate, faulty
gall bladder and fatty liver suddenly
show up during the medical
examination before they enter jail.
Depending upon their stature and
closeness to state governments, they
can enter the salubrious environs of
a sanatorium within 48 hours of
entering the jail.
The practice of an easy jail term, is

not new among our political elite.
Two former CMs, both with a

reputation for being muscular,
robust, rustic and earthy, have been
serving jail terms for the past few
years.
A close examination of their jail

journeys would show liberal parole
terms, frequent hospital stays and
far from unbearable life inside
prison. So, why should we grudge
Sidhu getting preferential treatment
in jail?
Sudhir Bisht, PhD, writes from New

Delhi.
The 21st century’s latest silver
bullet
Sanjay Chadha
Weaponisation of trade and slapping sanctions are the newest strong-arm tactics that
super economies employ to punish countries that play foul
There is a new mise en scène on the global stage of conflict management — ‘Trade
embargoes’. The increasing number of geopolitical tensions in recent years has seen a simple
commercial activity such as trade being increasingly weaponised. While war is abhorrent,
measured by any yardstick, but do trade embargoes serve out their intended purpose without
any road kill?
Not only do trade embargoes cause disruptions in the supply chains — compounded by a rise
in commodity prices — but also beget Governments to exert a greater degree of political
influence on the supply chains. Supply Chain Resilience, rather than its efficiency and cost
effectiveness, becomes the focus. Furthermore, ‘de-couplings’ do not happen overnight; these
are complex and often lead to unintended consequences.
The US-China trade war, compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic, instigated countries to
onshore and ‘near-shore’ the critical supply chains within politically allied partners. China
came out with its “dual circulation” and the European Union with its “technological
sovereignty” policy, all raising a fundamental question: Is globalisation démodé?
Given that Russia’s military might belies its economic stature — its economy is one-eighth
that of the United States, and also one-eighth of the European Union. A significant share of
its exports, after China, ends up being supplied to Europe. Similarly, a large share of its
imports, after China, is sourced from the European countries. While Europe buys about 70
per cent of Russia’s energy, even looked at from the other end, Russia supplies Europe 30 per
cent of its natural gas requirement and is a major source of natural gas for both the
Netherlands and Germany. Most of the East European countries depend on Russia for more
than half their crude oil supplies — particularly Finland, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia,
Hungary and Bulgaria.
Then there is the semiconductor or chip — the building block of all electronics — which is
considered the new oil. Although the United States itself has only a relatively small base of
semiconductor fabrication, but American companies are leaders in the field of semiconductor
design and chip patents — based on which the United States has put an embargo on any chip
developed with American technology being sold to Russia.
Here again, Russia and Ukraine are major suppliers of neon and palladium, which are both
vital components in chip manufacturing. Some analysts express the fear that Russia could
leverage this to retaliate against the United States’ chip sanctions. Furthermore, Russia and
Ukraine combined are significant players in the global grain markets. The war is battering the
global food system, which has already been weakened by the COVID-19 pandemic, and now
compounded by an energy shock. Ukraine’s exports of grain and oilseeds have mostly
trickled down to zilch and the Russian exports are threatened. Russia and Ukraine supply 28
per cent of globally traded wheat, 29 per cent of barley, 15 per cent of maize and 75 per cent
of globally traded sunflower oil. Global wheat prices have gone up 53 per cent since the start
of the year.
The top 16 trade partners of Russia (in 2021) accounted for about 70 per cent of its exports
and 75 per cent of its imports. Then there’s Ukraine. Just as it is geographically sandwiched
between the East and West, it is also economically caught in the middle. Ukraine’s top 16
trading partners account for over 74 per cent of its imports and 64 per cent of its exports.
How the sanctions on trading with Russia will play out in the rest of the global economy
elicits nuanced responses. Undoubtedly, the stance adopted by China will be pivotal — being
not only the largest trade partner of both Russia and Ukraine by far, but a very significant
trade partner of the United States and the European Union as well. Many experts opine that
the ripple effects of these economic embargoes will be felt unevenly across the globe;
countries like Mexico and Turkey, which have not imposed sanctions, could get an economic
boost.
Countries such as these could benefit from the increased trade volume and act as a go-
between for Russia and the rest of the global economy. India will need to finely balance its
own stance if it is to escape any major disruption in its supply chains and continue on its path
of manufacturing-led economic growth — having just crossed $1trillion in merchandise trade
for the first time in this financial year. The World Trade Organisation’s thrice-rescheduled
12th ministerial conference is expected to take place in June 2022 — where the participating
members are likely to address not only the matters pending with the world’s apex trade body,
but also take up issues surrounding the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the crisis still looms and
it will be a while before the full impact of the sanctions and the trade realignments becomes
clearer.
(The author is a retired senior Government officer. The views expressed are personal.)
Decoding Targeted Killings in Kashmir

Nilesh Kunwar| Indiandefensereview
Tuesday, May 24, turned out to be yet another bloody day in Kashmir. While a targeted
attack in the Soura area of Srinagar left a policeman dead and his seven-year-old daughter
injured, three innocent civilians sustained injuries due to a grenade hurled at security forces
in Yaripora area of Kulgam district in South Kashmir. Though a terrorist group calling itself
‘The Resistance Front’ [TRF] has taken responsibility for the Soura killing, this senseless act
nevertheless raises several questions.
Despite emergence of fancy phrases like ‘hybrid terrorists’ to describe those involved in
targeted killing of innocent civilians in Kashmir, this reprehensible trend is as old as the
advent of terrorism in J&K itself.
Firstly, fear of retribution may prevent locals from publicly condemning the cold-blooded
murder an unarmed policeman who had come home on leave and the injuring his infant
daughter. However, there’s no doubt that such despicable acts result in the
perpetrators getting alienated from the masses. So, why is TRF indulging in such despicable
acts of senseless violence that lowers its own image amongst the very people whose support
it desperately needs in order to survive, and then goes on to take responsibility for the same?
Secondly, despite emergence of fancy phrases like ‘hybrid terrorists’ to describe those
involved in targeted killing of innocent civilians in Kashmir, this reprehensible trend is as old
as the advent of terrorism in J&K itself. In fact, in 2011, didn’t senior Hurriyat leader Prof
Abdul Ghani Bhat himself say as much by publicly admitting that “This movement [terrorism
in J&K] started with the assassinations of thinkers and the people who held an opinion”?
Furthermore, by going on to say that “Neither the Army nor the police killed Lone sahib
[Jammu and Kashmir People’s Conference founder Abdul Ghani Lone] and Maulvi Farooq
sahib [Kashmir Awami Action Committee chairman MirwaizMoluvi Mohammad Farooq] but
our own people,” didn’t Bhat also admit that Pakistan’s proxies were creating contrived
narratives to falsely implicate security forces in such killings?
However, unlike in the past when no terrorist group would accept responsibility for such
heinous acts, today, terrorist groups with new names are unapologetic while taking
responsibility for targeted killings, even when women and children are killed or injured.
This is not only unprecedented but also inexplicable.
On realising that its specious post Article 370 abrogation narrative had no takers, Islamabad
understood that the only way it could keep the Kashmir pot boiling was by ‘manufacturing’
anarchy.
Logically speaking, adopting this self-incriminating practice doesn’t seem to make any sense.
But if one relates the same to what Islamabad has been claiming all along, then a clearer
picture of Pakistan’s duplicity emerges. On realising that its specious post Article 370
abrogation narrative had no takers, Islamabad understood that the only way it could keep the
Kashmir pot boiling was by ‘manufacturing’ anarchy. A clear indication of this was given by
none other than the then Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, and that too, from the UNGA
podium in 2019.
In his UNGA address, Khan threw across the question- “But what will happen when 8 million
Kashmiris come out of a lockdown and face 900,000 troops?” and then promptly replied it
himself by saying, “I fear there will be a bloodbath.” However, ISI and Pakistan’s proxies led
by All Parties Hurriyat Conference [APHC] failed to orchestrate public protests against
Article 370 abrogation, while proactive actions by security forces, coupled with increasing
public support, resulted in terrorists suffering major setbacks due to which they were unable
to up the ante as far as escalating violence levels was concerned.
Resultantly, Khan’s “bloodbath” prognosis, which was based on the assumption that by
instigating mobs to indulge in violence and arson, law enforcement agencies would be
compelled to use force against protesters and this would cause deaths and injuries, which
could be touted as “bloodbath.” Similarly, attacking security forces in crowded places to
provoke them into reacting and thereby causing collateral damage that could be portrayed as
a “bloodbath” also failed.
Having painted itself into a corner by claiming that the people of Kashmir had unanimously
rejected the center’s decision to abrogate Article 370 and were up in arms against this
decision, ISI took the desperate step of adding a new variant of violence to the ongoing
terrorist activities in J&K. It cunningly created new terrorist outfits on paper and while its
proxies are carrying out targeted killings on its orders, responsibility for such dastardly
crimes is being taken by non-existent entities like TRF.
ISI’s aim is simple – counter New Delhi’s ‘normalcy’ claim by creating a heightened state of
insecurity in J&K by such killings…
ISI’s aim is simple – counter New Delhi’s ‘normalcy’ claim by creating a heightened state of
insecurity in J&K by such killings and simultaneously protecting terrorist groups being
sponsored by ISI from international censure by making non-existent groups accept
responsibility for the same.
Incidentally, this move is also completely in line with Pakistan army chief Gen Qamar Javed
Bajwa’s public announcement that “Pakistan Army firmly stands by the Kashmiris in their
just struggle to the very end. We are prepared and shall go to any extent to fulfil our
obligations…” Since Rawalpindi calls the shots in Pakistan, the latter part of Gen Bajwa’s
assurance to the pro-Pakistan lobby is indeed very worrisome.
ISI is trying to peddle the lies that terrorist groups like TRF, United Liberation Front of
Kashmir [ULFK], Kashmir Tigers, and People’s Anti-Fascist Force [PAFF] have emerged
post Article 370 abrogation. The aim of doing so is simple- try and convince the world that
targeted killings which these groups are taking responsibility for and the resultant mayhem
are mere manifestations of public ire against this decision, and as such not a part of what Gen
Bajwa euphemistically refers to as the “just struggle” in J&K!
So, what India is currently facing in J&K is an extremely virulent form of terrorism and as
such an effective counter strategy to thwart ISI’s nefarious designs is crying need of the hour.
It would therefore be prudent to avoid use of buzz words like ‘hybrid terrorists’ while
referring to the perpetrators of targeted killings and describing this practice as a new
phenomenon, since the same can well be misused by ISI to buttress its false narrative.
Will the trust be restored?
BL Saraf
"Some may argue that the Commission has identified Kashmiri Migrants and not KPs as a
community which should be considered for representation in the Legislative
Assembly."Special arrangement
When, in the aftermath of gruesome killing of a young Pandit employee in Budgam district, a
depressing scenario is unfolding in Kashmir which may see five thousand Pandit employees
pulling out of the Valley, an encouraging news of sorts for the KPs is filtering down the
corridors of Delhi Darbar.
According to the media reports the Central Government is “likely to accept recommendation
of the Delimitation Commission for giving two seats to Kashmiri Pandits in the Assembly.”
One doesn’t know how much gloom that has lately descended on the displaced community
will get lifted by the news but certainly it is an acknowledgement of what it has been
demanding as a measure of political empowerment .
The Delimitation Commission, constituted in 2020 to demarcate 90 Assembly constituencies

and 5 Parliamentary Constituencies in Jammu and Kashmir , gave its Report which has been
notified by the GOI.
Apart from what has been condensed to the Notification O.N 17 (E), dated 5th May, 2022 as
Order No. 2 – Published in GOI Gazette of the same date, the Delimitation Commission,
concurrently, issued a Press Note No ECI /PN/ 41 /2022.
According to it the Commission has made recommendations to the Central Government and
asked it to make “ Provision of at least two members (one of them must be a female ) from
the community of Kashmiri Migrants in the legislative Assembly and such members may be
given power at par with the power of nominated members , of the Legislative Assembly Of
Union Territory of Puducherry .”
While making recommendation the Commission had noted that “ the delegations of Kashmiri
Migrants represented before the commission that they were persecuted and forced to live in
exile as refugees in their own country for the last three decades. It was urged that in order to
preserve their political rights, seats may be reserved for them in the Jammu and Kashmir
Assembly and Parliament.”
Some may argue that the Commission has identified Kashmiri Migrants and not KPs as a
community which should be considered for representation in the Legislative Assembly.
One has to understand that the country’s constitution doesn’t permit religion based
reservations in the legislature. But the way the Commission had prefaced its recommendation
no room is left to doubt which community it had in mind when it said so.
The Commission, in making such a kind of recommendation, has put a stamp of approval on
the law and circumstances which the community delegations had put forth before it, in
support of the claim of representation in state legislature and the Parliament. In order to
honour the recommendation lot of legislative work needs to be done.
To begin with, Section 14 of The Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, 2019 has to be
amended, suitably. It may be followed by an appropriate amendment to the Representation Of
People’s Act, as is now applicable to the UT. So long as J &K is a UT Article 239 A of the
Constitution can be invoked to achieve the purpose .
Law submitted before the Commission, to fortify the claim of the displaced persons, has to be
reiterated before the Central government to facilitate the required amendments to the various
laws, relevant to the matter.
The legal and factual position like Sangha Reservation in Sikkim Assembly, the Pondicherry
Model (referred by the Commission ), nomination for Women in the erstwhile J &K
Assembly and the case of Anglo Indian’s reservation must be brought to the notice of
quarters concerned.
The questions, however, remain. Will a couple of persons in the Assembly restore to Pandits
all they have lost in previous three decades and provide assurance that there would be no
repeat of the unfortunate circumstances: instil enough confidence among the displaced
persons to restart life wherefrom it got displaced 32 years back? These questions need
answers: particularly now when the state has failed to protect KP employees who have been
serving in the Valley.
What has suddenly changed on the ground that is forcing the young Pandit employees to
rethink on their stay in Kashmir where they been living, anew, since 2010? The disease may
have symptoms in Kashmir but prognosis has to be done in Delhi and elsewhere in the
mainland where new ‘history’, that suits to a particular ideology, is being written by, literally,
digging the past.
There is a huge trust deficit between the two communities in Kashmir. If the proposed
presence of two KPs in the upcoming Assembly has to have any meaning, recognition of the
ground realties of the Valley is must.
Their presence will mean nothing for the displaced community unless an all around
conducive atmosphere for safe and secure living is created.
Security forces can do it up to a limit: for endurance of the atmosphere reconciliation among
various sections of the Kashmir society is sine quo non.
Mutual trust has to be build . To ensure that, first, the polarising politics played in the country
must end and the hate mongers masquerading as TV anchors should be reined in.
B L SARAF, former Principal District & Sessions Judge
CONGRESS HIGH COMMAND HAS AGAIN MESSED UP THE LIST OF RAJYA SABHA NOMINEES
Sushil Kutty
The Congress is 137 and in a hurry to turn fossil, led by the nose into old age. Some
liquefied high fliers in the party, sensing atrophy in the bones, have already flown the coop.
Others haven’t, out of a misplaced sense of loyalty to the party, if not for the family, which in
turn couldn’t be playing a more potent role in the disintegration. The grapevine is tingling
with talk that siblings Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Vadra Gandhi will be the pallbearers for
the Congress.
Not that euthanasia wasn’t known in 1947 but, where Mahatma Gandhi was all for ending
the party of the freedom struggle, Jawaharlal Nehru couldn’t bring himself to committing
hara-kiri. But those were golden days for the Congress. Now, decades later, Nehru’s great
grandson and great granddaughter are presiding over a Congress that Nehru wouldn’t
recognize if it came knocking on his door in Valhalla, the Norse centre for afterlife.
Nehru was no Viking, but then the Norse are among the most democratic. And the Congress
has been in doldrums for quite many years. Things have gone from bad to worse in the last
year after the demise of political advisor to Sonia Gandhi, Ahmed Patel. And the enigmatic
Rahul Gandhi, much to the consternation of senior Congress leaders, hasn’t been a success
formula. Dissatisfied and feeling abandoned, these leaders went off the trodden path and on
a tangent. Today, the G-23 is G-22 with one of the 23 turning partial Samajwadi.
Kapil Sibal guessed it right. He wouldn’t be given a Rajya Sabha ticket this time by Sonia
Gandhi and family. Not that Ghulam Nabi Azad got lucky. The Gandhi family, especially
Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi, isn’t the recipient of bouquets post the selection of the party’s
Rajya Sabha candidates. The list has the usual suspects. The old established family loyalists
who were rewarded with Rajya Sabha seats earlier, too.
Like Rajiv Shukla and Mukul Wasnik. And current favourite Randeep Surjewala. That these
Congress leaders figure in the list is not the issue. The anger is that they would be
contesting from outside of their states, like former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had
made a habit of, contesting from Assam and Rajasthan.
This time, among the out-of-state beneficiaries are Rajiv Shukla and Surjewala. And the
anger is boiling over in Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan, where these leaders have been foisted
on the locals.
Those who made the list include P. Chidambaram, Jairam Ramesh, Ajay Maken, Randeep
Surjewala, Rajeev Shukla, Mukul Wasnik and Vivek Tankha. The names betray the hand of
Rahul and Sonia Gandhi. If Chidambaram, Ramesh, Shukla and Wasnik are Sonia
favourites, the names of Maken, Surjewala and Tankha have a definite Rahul tinge to them.
It is not just Congress leaders of Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, both states ruled by the
Congress, who do not like being left out, other more better known Congress aspirants are
also throwing caution to the winds and displaying their utter disappointment at the Gandhi
family. Actor Nagma, for example, says she has been waiting 18 years for Sonia Gandhi to
keep her promise, “but look what she has gone and done, given the ticket to a poet who had
joined the party only the other day.”
The actor-turned-politician was criticizing the selection of poet-turned-politician Imran
Pratapgarhi, who belongs to Uttar Pradesh, a state which give the Congress “nil-batta-
sanatta” in the just concluded assembly elections. It is not for nothing that many from inside
and outside the Congress are ominously humming the death dirge for the Congress if the
Gandhi family doesn’t step back from the edge which happens to be the brink for the party.
Among the more well-regarded Congress leaders who haven’t made the list includes the
party’s national spokesperson Pawan Khera, somebody who spent hours every day
defending the party and family, morning to evening. Khera wondered if there was something
lacking in his “devotion” to party and family.
But Khera is not leaving the Congress like Sibal. The reason the Gandhi family can get away
with unpopular decisions within the party is because Congressmen like Pawan Khera
wouldn’t fit in any other mould. The only political capital that Congress leaders like Khera
have earned in their political careers is their loyalty to the 137-year-old party.
They wouldn’t fit in, in any other party. The Congress is like second skin to them. Even to a
celebrity like Nagma, minus the Congress tag, she wouldn’t breathe easy. In the rush of new
stars hitting all the filmy woods in the country, Nagma wouldn’t be even among the least
luminous. The Congress is turning out to be a party of the frustrated, by the frustrated, for
the frustrated. (IPA Service)
PRESIDENT BIDEN IS IN NO RUSH TO HELP UKRAINE NEGOTIATE AN END TO THE WAR
Branko Marcetic
Thirteen weeks long, the war in Ukraine has reached a state of paradox. To a greater extent
than at any previous point since Russian president Vladimir Putin invaded, the political
establishment is acknowledging that a negotiated settlement is the only way the war can end
safely. Yet the prospect of anything of the sort happening also seems more and more
remote.
After months of steady low-level negotiations, the diplomatic line between Moscow and Kiev
seems to be dead. Ukrainian leadership, emboldened by the unexpectedly effective
resistance it has shown on the battlefield, is abjuring any resumption of talks until Moscow
hands back the territory it has occupied since the invasion started, saying that “any
concession to Russia is not a path to peace.” Russian leadership, for its part, has given no
indication it is ready to accept the tacit acknowledgment of defeat implied by serious peace
negotiations at a time when its battlefield gains remain so disappointing.
In the midst of all this, one factor has gone little remarked upon: the role of the West, and the
US government in particular. Knowledgeable observers of the diplomatic scene say that
there has been little appetite or effort from Washington to prepare for a diplomatic resolution
of the conflict, even as it has become more and more deeply embroiled in what both Russian
and American voices are increasingly calling a proxy war between the two nuclear
superpowers. While there have been no shortage of voices calling for an escalation of US
military support for Ukraine, those calling for the United States to take an active diplomatic
role to bring the Russian invasion to an end have been few and far between. Yet the war has
already become costly for Ukraine. Its indefinite continuation would be a disaster for that
country, and potentially for the world.
The experts Jacobin spoke to all agreed that for a settlement to be reached, the United
States at the very least has to be at the negotiating table.
“Russians believe the US calls the shots,” says Chas Freeman, longtime US diplomat under
successive presidents and assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs
under Bill Clinton. “Therefore, talking to those who take direction from the US is unlikely to
yield anything useful.”
“You’ve got the issue of whether Ukraine will join NATO, and the sanctions,” says John B.
Quigley, an expert in international law who led talks on the status of the Donbas and Crimea
after the Cold War. “So I think the major powers do need to be involved.”
But if the diplomatic line between Kiev and Moscow has gone cold in recent weeks, the one
between Moscow and Washington is buried under an ice shelf. While the United States and
Russia have engaged in a prisoner swap and seen contacts between military officials,
secretary of state Tony Blinken — the top US diplomat — and his Russian counterpart
haven’t spoken once since before the start of the war.
US officials have justified this lack of engagement in a variety of ways, arguing that Putin
isn’t serious about negotiating, and that whether or not to negotiate “are decisions for
[Ukrainians] to make.” But it’s been harder to wave off as US involvement in the war has
deepened.
“The idea is that we don’t negotiate with him, the Ukrainians decide,” says Rajan Menon,
director of the Grand Strategy program at Defense Priorities. “But we are deeply implicated
in this war — we can’t pretend we aren’t.”
Washington has begun sending heavy weaponry that was considered too escalatory only
weeks earlier, and has boasted of its role in helping Ukraine kill a series of Russian generals
and sink the flagship of its Black Sea fleet. Multiple US officials have now openly described
the conflict as a proxy war with Russia, while Steny Hoyer, the second-highest-ranking
Democrat in the House, declared that “we’re at war.” The feeling is mutual over on the
Russian side.
The stakes of not reaching a settlement are high. For the world, there’s the hovering specter
of nuclear escalation that could quickly envelop all of Europe and North America in the
devastation, along with the government-toppling economic instability being fueled by the
war’s resulting supply shocks. For Ukrainians, it means more death, destruction, and
economic chaos, with the World Bank predicting the invasion will shrink its economy 45
percent this year.
Washington has refused diplomatic engagement with Moscow, setting Russia’s “irreversible”
withdrawal from Ukraine, so it doesn’t have the capability to invade again in two or three
years’ time, as the condition for lifting sanctions — a demand that’s hard to define in
concrete, practical terms. This has been paired with a series of bellicose statements by US
and other Western officials suggesting that US and British goals are fomenting regime
change in Moscow, or, at minimum, weakening Russia.
Yet for all the talk of a renewed Western unity of purpose since the war began, the United
States and its allies are split on this matter. Unlike Washington, France, Germany, and Italy
have all kept diplomatic lines with Russia open since the war began, and have called for a
cease-fire and peace talks throughout, even as they’ve signed off on ongoing weapons
transfers to Ukraine.
So has fellow NATO member Turkey, which brokered peace talks between Kiev and
Moscow in March. Last week, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, stressing that “a cease-
fire must be achieved as soon as possible,” put forward a four-point peace plan: a frontline
cease-fire for evacuations, followed by Ukrainian neutrality, autonomy for disputed territories,
and an EU-Russian peace deal that exchanges a Russian withdrawal for the easing of
sanctions.
“This can be a good starting point that should be endorsed by others, the US obviously,”
says Irrera. “They should not stay away from that, not just because they’re relevant but
because they need to take responsibility for what’s happening in the region.”
But the enthusiasm for a negotiated settlement is far from universal. Last month, the
Washington Post reported that for other NATO members, chiefly those in Eastern Europe,
“it’s better for the Ukrainians to keep fighting, and dying, than to achieve a peace that comes
too early or at too high a cost to Kyiv and the rest of Europe,” arguing that any concessions
to Putin will lead to future Russian aggression. “The problem is that if it ends now, there is a
kind of time for Russia to regroup, and it will restart, under this or another pretext,” one
unnamed diplomat told the paper. Turkish foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has since
charged that “there are countries within NATO who want the war to continue” because “they
want Russia to become weaker.”
At least until recently, Ukraine has long asked for deeper Western diplomatic engagement.
In March, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky called for the West to get more involved
in negotiations for ending the war, praising Israeli mediation efforts. British defense secretary
Ben Wallace unwittingly revealed in March that Zelensky was “quite keen to see the United
Kingdom alongside Ukraine in these negotiations,” and that there was “a desire for the UK
and the US” to be there to avoid the experience of the doomed Minsk Accords, “where just
France and Germany were there.” As recently as last week, Zelensky himself affirmed that
“there are things that can only be reached at the negotiating table,” and that the war would
“only definitively end through diplomacy,” albeit before he was swiftly undercut by an advisor.
(IPA Service)
Courtesy: Jacobin

President Biden Is in No Rush To Help Ukraine Negotiate An End To The War-May 31

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