sustainability
Article
Design and Implementation of Probabilistic Transient Stability
Approach to Assess the High Penetration of Renewable Energy
in Korea
Young-Been Cho 1 , Yun-Sung Cho 1, * , Jae-Gul Lee 2 and Seung-Chan Oh 2






Citation: Cho, Y.-B.; Cho, Y.-S.;
Lee, J.-G.; Oh, S.-C. Design and
Implementation of Probabilistic
Transient Stability Approach to
Assess the High Penetration of
Renewable Energy in Korea.
Sustainability 2021, 13, 4205.
https://doi.org/10.3390/
su13084205
Academic Editor: Ocktaeck Lim
Received: 7 March 2021
Accepted: 7 April 2021
Published: 9 April 2021
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral
with regard to jurisdictional claims in
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iations.
Copyright: © 2021 by the authors.
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
This article is an open access article
distributed under the terms and
conditions of the Creative Commons
Attribution (CC BY) license (https://
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
4.0/).
Sustainability 2021, 13, 4205. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13084205
1 School of Electronic and Electrical Engineering, Daegu Catholic University, Gyeongbuk 38430, Korea;
gust741719@gmail.com
2 Power System Analysis, Korea Electric Power Research Institute, Deajeon 34056, Korea;
jaegul.lee@kepco.co.kr (J.-G.L.); seungchan.oh@kepco.co.kr (S.-C.O.)
* Correspondence: philos@cu.ac.kr; Tel./Fax: +82-53-850-2767
Abstract: Recently, because of the many environmental problems worldwide, Korea is moving to
increase its renewable energy output due to the Renewable 3020 Policy. Renewable energy output can
change depending on environmental factors. It is for this reason that institutions should consider the
instability of renewables when linked to the electric system. This paper describes the methodology of
renewable energy capacity calculation based on probabilistic transient stability assessment. Proba-
bilistic transient stability assessment consists of four algorithms: first, to create probabilistic scenarios
based on the effective capacity history of renewable energy; second, to evaluate probabilistic transient
stability based on transient stability index, interpolation-based transient stability index estimation,
reduction-based transient stability index calculation, etc.; third, to implement multiple scenarios to
calculate renewable energy capacity using probabilistic evaluation index; and finally, to create a prob-
abilistic transient stability assessment simulator based on Python. This paper calculated renewable
energy capacity based on large-scale power system to validate consistency of the proposed paper.
Keywords: renewable energy; probabilistic transient stability; transient stability index; cumulative
distribution functions (CDF); automatic simulation based on Python
1. Introduction
Because of climate change and worsening environmental problems around the world,
countries are urged by the international community to reduce their carbon emissions under
the UN Climate Change Conference Paris 2015. Reducing the national carbon footprint
means abolishing coal and thermal power plants, which were primarily responsible for
carbon emissions, and using renewable energy resources [1]. As shown in Figure 1, Korea
aims to produce 20% of its total energy output with renewable energy generation by 2030,
which is around 63.8 gigawatts (GW) (Photovoltaics (PV): 57%; Wind: 28%; Others: 15%)
according to the Renewable 3020 Policy [2].
Korea recently achieved an 8.6% renewable energy output in the third quarter of 2019.
An increase in renewable energy production has an inevitable effect on the electric system.
Producing renewable energy requires the assessment of variables that are not typically
considered in conventional types of energy production. These variables depend on regional
inputs and climates, so it is crucial to analyze these characteristics and their impact on
the system.
Recently, on the largest island of Korea, Jeju Island, on 13 April 2020, at 3:58 p.m., the
load was 617 MW, the renewable generation such as wind power and solar power recorded
384 MW, and the renewable Effective capacity was 62.3%. However, the curtailment in
Jeju last year increased by 67.4% compared to the previous year to 77. Such curtailment
led to a power limitation of 2.2 million kWh (worth 4 billion), which was directly linked
https://www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability
Sustainability 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 2 of 17

Sustainability 2021, 13, 4205 orded 384 MW, and the renewable Effective capacity was 62.3%. However, the curtailment 2 of 17
in Jeju last year increased by 67.4% compared to the previous year to 77. Such curtailment
led to a power limitation of 2.2 million kWh (worth 4 billion), which was directly linked
to losses
to losses for wind power generators.
generators. ThisThis means
means that
that even
even ifif new and renewable energy
is actively
is actively carried
carried out,
out, there
there is a lack of foundation for efficient use of it. It is known that
the Jeju
the Jeju region is implementing curtailment for wind power generation every year as the
acceptance of
acceptance ofrenewable
renewableenergy
energyhas hasreached
reacheditsitslimit.
limit.
TheThe problem
problem is that
is that curtailment
curtailment in-
increases
creases rapidly
rapidly as as
thethe years
years go goby:by:
fromfrom
3 in32015
in 2015
to 6to
in 62016,
in 2016,
14 in142017,
in 2017,
15 in15 in 2018,
2018, and
andin46
46 in 2019
2019 [3]. Therefore,
[3]. Therefore, it is itnecessary
is necessary to probably
to probably predict
predict changes
changes in the
in the generation
generation of
of renewable energy in the pre-planning stage for these losses and
renewable energy in the pre-planning stage for these losses and problems to prevent problems to prevent
prob-
problems
lems caused
caused by thebyamount
the amount of generation
of generation of renewable
of renewable energy.
energy.

Figure 1.
Figure Status of
1. Status of the
the renewable
renewable energy
energy 3020
3020 implementation
implementation plan.
plan.

Power system
Power system stability
stability assessment
assessment for
for large-scale
large-scale power
power system
system complexes
complexes has
has been
been
conducted in a deterministic method. Deterministic method can analyze properties
conducted in a deterministic method. Deterministic method can analyze properties of of
power systems through scenario creation, load flow calculation, and N-1 contingency
power systems through scenario creation, load flow calculation, and N-1 contingency
analysis. However, when the volatility increases with alignment of a power system with
analysis. However, when the volatility increases with alignment of a power system with
renewable energy, this limits application of deterministic method. To supplement limita-
renewable energy, this limits application of deterministic method. To supplement limita-
tions of deterministic method, the probabilistic stability assessment method has been used,
tions of deterministic method, the probabilistic stability assessment method has been
where scenarios extending to 8760 h are created to assess stability. Table 1 shows charac-
used, where scenarios extending to 8760 h are created to assess stability. Table 1 shows
teristics of the deterministic method and the probabilistic method to estimate renewable
characteristics of the deterministic method and the probabilistic method to estimate re-
energy capacity limits.
newable energy capacity limits.
Table 1. Characteristic of Deterministic method and Probabilistic method.
Table 1. Characteristic of Deterministic method and Probabilistic method.
Characteristic
Characteristic Required
Required InputData
Input Data

- Generation and loadand

- Generation fixing
loadscenar-
fixing
ios such asscenarios
100~60% such as 100~60% - 100~60%
- 100~60%scenario
scenario
- Renewable energy fluctuation
- Renewable energy fluctuation and - - Regeneration e facilitycapac-
Regeneration e facility
Deterministic
Deterministic method and synchronous power capacity
synchronous power generation fluc- ity
method generation fluctuation - Synchronous Generator
tuation- Difficulty reflecting - Synchronous
Merit OrderGenerator Merit
- Difficulty characteristics
reflecting characteristics
due to fixed load Order
due to fixed load
- 8760 h reflected
- 8760 h reflected
- - Development/demand
Development/demand history
- Generation (synchronous power
- Generation (synchronous power history database (DB)
generation, renewable e) database (DB) required for
generation, renewableload
e) fluctua- required for several years
Probabilistic method
Probabilistic fluctuations, fluctuations several years e facility capacity
tions, load fluctuations - Renewable
- Difficulty securing convergence
method - Renewable e facility
- Synchronous capacity
Generator
- Difficulty due to power
securing generation and
convergence due Merit OrderGenerator Merit
load fluctuations - Synchronous
to power generation and load fluc-
Order
tuations
Recently, a number of studies have been conducted on power system planning and
assessment using probabilistic stability assessment. National Grid ESO(NGESO) used
the probabilistic stability assessment procedure to create its scenarios for expanding the
renewable energy generation and plan to reinforce its transmission and transformation
 Recently, a number of studies have been conducted on power system planning and
assessment using probabilistic stability assessment. National Grid ESO(NGESO) used the
probabilistic stability assessment procedure to create its scenarios for expanding the re-
Sustainability 2021, 13, 4205 3 of 17
newable energy generation and plan to reinforce its transmission and transformation fa-
cilities [4]: in one study, through deterministic transient stability evaluation using CCT
(Critical Clearing
facilities [4]: in oneTime),
study,etc. (the transient
through stability
deterministic state of
transient the power
stability grid; calculate
evaluation using CCT the
stability margin of several generators). Through this simulation, it is
(Critical Clearing Time), etc. (the transient stability state of the power grid; calculate theexpressed as PDFs
(Probability
stability density
margin functions),
of several which isThrough
generators). a probabilistic index, anditexamined
this simulation, is expressedas anasenemy
PDFs
[5]. Another paper introduces the Monte Carlo simulation-based
(Probability density functions), which is a probabilistic index, and examined as an methods to create
enemy a sce-
[5].
nario with
Another multiple
paper load models.
introduces the MonteAfter that,simulation-based
Carlo the transient stability assessment
methods to createby a proba-
a scenario
bilistic
with approach
multiple loadused the normal
models. andthe
After that, cumulative
transientdistributions using Transient
stability assessment Stability
by a probabilistic
Index (TSI)
approach and
used thegenerator
normal and damping(s)
cumulative [6]. Figure 2 shows
distributions using the flow chart
Transient of the
Stability Indexplan to
(TSI)
reinforce
and their damping(s)
generator transmission[6]. and transformation
Figure 2 shows the facilities based
flow chart of on
thethe
planprobabilistic
to reinforcestabil-
their
ity assessmentand
transmission procedure. As shown
transformation in Figure
facilities based2, on
boththethe deterministic
probabilistic and probabilistic
stability assessment
methods establish
procedure. As shown theinreinforcement
Figure 2, bothplan by calculation
the deterministic andbased on repeated
probabilistic load establish
methods flow cal-
culation.
the However,plan
reinforcement the by
probabilistic
calculationmethod
based on establishes
repeatedthe loadreinforcement
flow calculation.plan However,
by apply-
ing probabilistic
the the probabilisticmethodmethod to estimate
establishes generation andplan
the reinforcement loadby configuration,
applying theflow capacity
probabilistic
method to estimate generation
of lines connecting regions, etc.,and loadon
based configuration,
the history data.flow capacity
A precise of plan
lines to
connecting
reinforce
regions,
transmissionetc., and
based on the historyfacilities
transformation data. Arequires
precise aplan to reinforce
probabilistic transmission
transient stabilityand
as-
transformation
sessment. facilities requires a probabilistic transient stability assessment.

Figure 2. Power system stability and renewable energy

energy acceptance
acceptance analysis
analysis of
of probabilistic
probabilistic method
method [4].
[4].

Many
Many studies
studies are
arebeing
beingconducted
conductedbased
basedon onprobabilistic
probabilisticstability
stabilitybased
basedonon
algae calcu-
algae cal-
lation and assumed contingency fault, the expansion of new and renewable
culation and assumed contingency fault, the expansion of new and renewable energy [7– energy [7–12].
However, the probabilistic
12]. However, the probabilisticstability analysis
stability based
analysis basedon onthethe
power
power flow calculation
flow has
calculation hasa
disadvantage in that it cannot reflect the transient characteristics. In particular,
a disadvantage in that it cannot reflect the transient characteristics. In particular, there are there are
unstable
unstable areas
areas in
in terms
terms of of transient
transient stability
stability in
in Korea,
Korea, andand generator
generator output
output decreasing
decreasing
and
and Special Protection System (SPS) are installed and operated to solve this
Special Protection System (SPS) are installed and operated to solve this problem.
problem. In
In
this
this paper,
paper, aaprobabilistic
probabilistictransient
transientstability
stabilityplan
planthat
thatreflects thethe
reflects dynamic
dynamic characteristics of
characteristics
generators
of generatorsand new
and newrenewable
renewable energy is proposed
energy is proposed to compensate
to compensate forfor
thethe
shortcomings
shortcomingsof
the probabilistic stability based on power flow calculation.
of the probabilistic stability based on power flow calculation.
This paper introduces algorithms of the probabilistic transient stability assessment
This paper introduces algorithms of the probabilistic transient stability assessment
considering volatility and uncertainty of renewable energy. First, probabilistic scenarios
considering volatility and uncertainty of renewable energy. First, probabilistic scenarios
were created based on the history of effective capacity and generation for 8760 h of renew-
were created based on the history of effective capacity and generation for 8760 h of renew-
able energy. A sum of 8760 scenarios are created by applying the generation quantity from
able energy. A sum of 8760 scenarios are created by applying the generation quantity from
the historical data based on the input data of the maximum generation scenario. Second, a
the historical data based on the input data of the maximum generation scenario. Second,
probabilistic transient stability assessment was conducted using transient stability index,
interpolation-based transient stability index estimation, reduction-based transient stability
index, etc. To reduce calculation time, which is a disadvantage of the probabilistic transient
stability assessment, interpolation and reduction algorithms were applied to the transient
stability assessment. Finally, a probabilistic transient stability assessment simulator was
 a probabilistic transient stability assessment was conducted using transient stability in-
dex, interpolation-based transient stability index estimation, reduction-based transient
stability index, etc. To reduce calculation time, which is a disadvantage of the probabilistic
transient stability assessment, interpolation and reduction algorithms were applied to the
Sustainability 2021, 13, 4205 4 of 17
transient stability assessment. Finally, a probabilistic transient stability assessment simu-
lator was created based on the scenario creation, transient stability assessment algorithms,
and probabilistic assessment. This paper created 5 scenarios to validate consistency of the
created based on the scenario creation, transient stability assessment algorithms, and
proposed paper.
probabilistic assessment. This paper created 5 scenarios to validate consistency of the
proposed paper.
2. The Proposed Flowchart for Probabilistic Transient Stability Assessment
2. The
2.1. Proposed
Overall Flowchart for Probabilistic Transient Stability Assessment
Flowchart
2.1. Overall
Figure Flowchart
3 shows the procedure of the proposed probabilistic transient stability assess-
ment.Figure 3 shows thetransient
The probabilistic procedure of the proposed
stability probabilistic
assessment consists of transient stability assess-
five modules:
ment. The probabilistic transient stability assessment consists of five modules:
• Scenario creation module: to create 8760-hour scenarios or scenarios for different in-
• Scenario creation
crease/decrease module:
ratios to create
of renewable 8760-h scenarios or scenarios for different in-
energy
• crease/decrease
Transient stabilityratios of renewable
assessment module: energy
stability assessment based on transient stabil-
• Transient
ity stability assessment module:
index, stability based onstability assessment
interpolation based on transient stability
and reduction
• index,turbine
Wind stability assessment
gust modelling based on interpolation
module: Wind turbine and reduction
gust modelling using a dynamic
• Wind turbine
model gust modelling
for renewable energy module: Wind turbine gust modelling using a dynamic
• model for renewable
Probabilistic assessment energy
module: Probabilistic analysis and output in PDF and cumu-
• Probabilistic assessment
lative distribution functions module:
(CDF)Probabilistic
based on theanalysis andofoutput
results in PDF and
the transient cumula-
stability as-
tive distribution functions (CDF) based on the results of the transient stability assessment
sessment
•
• Outputmodule:
Output module:Transient
Transient stability
stability assessment
assessment results
results (text,
(text, charts,
charts, etc.)
etc.) output,
output, log
log
output, etc.
output, etc.

Figure 3. Flowchart of simulation module of probabilistic method.

method.

2.2. Scenario Creation

For the probabilistic transient stability assessment, scenarios were created based on
the following data:
• Input
• Inputdata:
data:Basecase
Basecasedata
data (Power
(Power System
System Simulation
Simulation forfor Engineering
Engineering (PSS/E)
(PSS/E) datadata
for-
format), information on renewable energy link (interconnected bus, type and
mat), information on renewable energy link (interconnected bus, type and capacitycapacity
of
of the
the renewable
renewable energy)
energy)
• Scenario
• ScenarioCreation
CreationProcess
Process
(1) Renewable
(1) Renewable energy
energy is modelled
is modelled into
into thebasecase.
the basecase.AsAsshown
shownininFigure
Figure 4a,
4a, it
it is
is
modelled
modelled using
using a simple
a simple renewableenergy
renewable energytopology.
topology.This
Thisstudy
study simplified
simplified the
the
modelling
modelling method
method andand used
used connectinglines
connecting linesand
andtransformers
transformersfor
for modelling.
modelling.
Additionally, generators with step-up transformers are used to reduce
Additionally, generators with step-up transformers are used to reduce the data- the
database size. As shown in Figure 4b, it is modelled using a dynamic model of
renewable energy. Solar and wind power models are applied using the Western
Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) second generation model [13].
(2) Renewable energy generation quantity is adjusted based on the effective ca-
pacity data of renewable energy. As shown in Figure 5, the hourly generation
of solar and wind power in Korea in 2019 is not constant and is distributed
in various ways. Based on this, the amount of renewable energy output is
 base size. As shown in Figure 4b, it is modelled using a dynamic model of re-
newable energy. Solar and wind power models are applied using the Western
Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) second generation model [13].
Sustainability 2021, 13, 4205 (2) Renewable energy generation quantity is adjusted based on the effective capacity 5 of 17
data of renewable energy. As shown in Figure 5, the hourly generation of solar
and wind power in Korea in 2019 is not constant and is distributed in various
ways. Basedinonseveral
adjusted this, thestages.
amountInofthis
renewable
paper, energy output effective
the modeled is adjusted in sev- of
capacity
eral stages. In this paper, the modeled
renewable energy composed of 1% to 95%. effective capacity of renewable energy
(3) composed
When the of scenario
1% to 95%. is generated for the static analysis, the renewable energy
(3) When
power system wasis connected,
the scenario generated for the static
leading to an analysis,
increase the renewable
in the amount energy
of renew-
power system was connected, leading to an increase in the
able energy generation, which causes errors in supply and demand, amount of renewable
thereby
energy generation,
enlarging which causes
the mismatch errors
in the in supply
power system.andTo demand, thereby
rebalance the enlarging
supply and
the mismatch
demand, in the
either thepower system.
existing To rebalance
generator should be thesuspended
supply andvia demand,
dispatch,either
or the
the existing generator should be suspended via dispatch, or the amount
amount of power generation must be reduced. Thus, Generators are dispatched of power
generation
based onmust be reduced.
the merit order of Thus, Generators are dispatched based on the merit
the generators.
order of the generators.

Figure
Figure
Figure 4. (a)
4. (a)
4. (a)
TheThe proposedpower
proposed
The proposed powerflow
power flowmodel
flow modelof
model ofrenewable
of renewable energy.
renewable energy. (b)
(b) Structure
(b) Structure of
Structureof generic
ofgeneric model
genericmodel inin
modelin WECC 2nd
WECC
WECC [12].
2nd
2nd [12].
[12].

Sustainability 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 6 of 17

Figure
Figure 5. (a)
5. (a) Generation
Generation ofof2019
2019Wind
Windgeneration
generationin
inKorea.
Korea. (b)
(b) 2019
2019 Generation
Generationofof2019
2019Wind
Windgeneration
generationinin
Korea [1,2].
Korea [1,2].

2.3. Transient Stability Assessment

2.3.1. Transient Stability Assessment Based on Transient Stability Index (TSI)
This paper evaluated stability and instability of a power grid using phase angles of
the generators for the probabilistic transient stability assessment. As shown in
Formula (1), the stability index was established using phase angles of the generators [14].
360−𝜎MAX
TSI = 100 ×
Sustainability 2021, 13, 4205 6 of 17

Figure 5. (a) Generation of 2019 Wind generation in Korea. (b) 2019 Generation of 2019 Wind generation in Korea [1,2].
2.3. Transient Stability Assessment
2.3.1. TransientStability
2.3. Transient Stability Assessment Based on Transient Stability Index (TSI)
Assessment
This
2.3.1. paper evaluated
Transient stability and
Stability Assessment instability
Based of a power
on Transient Stabilitygrid using
Index (TSI)phase angles of
the generators for the probabilistic transient stability assessment. As shown in Formula (1),
This paper evaluated stability and instability of a power grid using phase angles of
the stability index was established using phase angles of the generators [14].
the generators for the probabilistic transient stability assessment. As shown in
Formula (1), the stability index was established using
360 phase angles of the generators [14].
− σMAX
TSI = 100 × 360−𝜎MAX (1)
× + σMAX
TSI = 100 360 (1)
360+𝜎 MAX

where
whereσδMAX
MAX isis the
the maximum
maximumrotor rotorangle
angledeviation.
deviation.ForFor systems
systems with
with a stable
a stable condition,
condition,
the
theTSI
TSIwill
willbebegreater
greater than
than the
the threshold value.The
threshold value. Thethresholds
thresholds maymaybebesetset according
according to to
characteristics
characteristics of the power grids of each country. This paper declared instability for 35 or or
of the power grids of each country. This paper declared instability for 35
lower,
lower,considering
consideringcharacteristics
characteristicsof ofthe
thepower
power grids
grids in
in Korea.
Korea. As shown in Figure Figure 6,6, TSI
TSI of
35ofor35lower
or lower generally shows instability. This indicator allows one to quickly identifythe
generally shows instability. This indicator allows one to quickly identify
probability of falling
the probability below
of falling a given
below TSI TSI
a given level. Although
level. Although thethe
probabilistic
probabilistic transient
transientstability
sta-
assessment is a precise
bility assessment stability
is a precise assessment
stability methodology,
assessment a disadvantage
methodology, is thatisitthat
a disadvantage requires
it
a requires
long time for calculation.
a long This studyThis
time for calculation. proposed two algorithms
study proposed to reducetothe
two algorithms calculation
reduce the
calculation
time time of the probabilistic
of the probabilistic transientassessment.
transient stability stability assessment. First,
First, is the is the interpola-
interpolation-based
tion-based probabilistic
probabilistic transient
transient stability stability assessment.
assessment. Second, is theSecond, is the reduction-based
reduction-based probabilistic
probabilistic
transient transient
stability stability assessment.
assessment.

Figure
Figure 6. Stability
6. Stability resultaccording
result accordingto
toTransient
Transient Stability
Stability Index
Index(TSI).
(TSI).(a)
(a)TSI
TSI35:35:
Stable state.
Stable (b) (b)
state. TSI TSI
< 35:<Unstable state.state.
35: Unstable
*Colored
Colored line:line: angle
angle of each
of each generator.
generator.

2.3.2. Interpolation-Based Transient Stability Assessment

The interpolation-based probabilistic transient stability assessment can calculate ca-
pacity of renewable energy by simulating fewer scenarios. As shown in Figure 7, the
interpolation method calculates a predicted value by extracting a least squares polynomial
fit for a given data. The process of the interpolation-based probabilistic transient stability
assessment with Python [15] is as follows:
Step (1) Scenarios are selected for the transient stability assessment. The minimum
capacity and average capacity of renewable energy are determined to calculate
critical capacity of renewable energy. This study applied the average capacity
based on the effective capacity.
Step (2) A total of 10 scenarios are selected with increases/decreases in renewable energy
between the minimum and average capacities.
Step (3) For the scenarios selected in Step (2), TSI-based transient stability assessment
is conducted.
Step (4) the maximum capacity of renewable energy is calculated based on interpolation.
 2.3.2. Interpolation-Based Transient Stability Assessment
The interpolation-based probabilistic transient stability assessment can calculate ca-
pacity of renewable energy by simulating fewer scenarios. As shown in Figure 7, the in-
terpolation method calculates a predicted value by extracting a least squares polynomial
Sustainability 2021, 13, 4205 7 of 17
fit for a given data. The process of the interpolation-based probabilistic transient stability
assessment with Python [15] is as follows:

Figure
Figure 7. 7. Interpolation
Interpolation using
using Python.
Python.

2.3.3. Reduction-Based Transient Stability Assessment

Step (1) Scenarios are selected for the transient stability assessment. The minimum ca-
Thepacity
reduction-based probabilistic
and average capacity transientenergy
of renewable stability
are assessment can
determined to calculate renew-
calculate
able energy capacity
critical byofequalizing
capacity renewablelarge-scale systems
energy. This as interested
study applied systems
the average and simulating
capacity
based on
the scenarios. theprocess
The effective
ofcapacity.
the reduction-based probabilistic transient stability assessment
Step
is as(2)follows:
A total of 10 scenarios are selected with increases/decreases in renewable energy
between the minimum and average capacities.
Step (1) Interested areas and uninterested areas are selected for the transient stability
Step (3) For the scenarios selected in Step (2), TSI-based transient stability assessment is
assessment.
conducted.
Step(4)(2)theFor
Step the uninterested
maximum areas, generators
capacity of renewable and busesbased
energy is calculated of 154
onkV or higher are main-
interpolation.
tained and the rest is reduced.
StepReduction-Based
2.3.3. (3) For the scenarios inStability
Transient Step (2),Assessment
TSI-based transient stability assessment is conducted.
Step (4) As shown in Figure 8, calculate the maximum capacity for renewable energy
The reduction-based probabilistic transient stability assessment can calculate renew- 8 of 17
Sustainability 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW
by using
able energy capacity by the little difference
equalizing between
large-scale systems voltage and
as interested phase
systems andangle
simulat-before and
after reduction.
ing the scenarios. The process of the reduction-based probabilistic transient stability as-
sessment is as follows:
Step (1) Interested areas and uninterested areas are selected for the transient stability
assessment.
Step (2) For the uninterested areas, generators and buses of 154 kV or higher are main-
tained and the rest is reduced.
Step (3) For the scenarios in Step (2), TSI-based transient stability assessment is con-
ducted.
Step (4) As shown in Figure 8, calculate the maximum capacity for renewable energy by
using the little difference between voltage and phase angle before and after re-
duction.

Figure 8.
Figure 8. Generator
Generatorangle
anglebefore
beforeand
andafter
afterReduction
Reduction(Red: Before,
(Red: Green:
Before, After).
Green: After).

2.4. Wind Gust

2.4. Gust Modeling
Modeling
The generic
The generic model
modelprovided
providedby byPSS/E
PSS/E in in
thethe
dynamic modeling
dynamic modelingof the generators
of the thatthat
generators
make up the renewable energy complex. Generator modeling consists
make up the renewable energy complex. Generator modeling consists of REGCAU1 [16,17], of REGCAU1
[16,17],
the the electrical
electrical and mechanical
and mechanical modeling
modeling of REECAU1,
of REECAU1, andand REPCAU1’s
REPCAU1’s pitch
pitch con- as
control
trol as shown in Figure 9. In this paper, the generation of wind changed the
shown in Figure 9. In this paper, the generation of wind changed the value of Model VARSvalue of Model
VARS
(L + 3)(Lof+REPCAU1,
3) of REPCAU1,
which which is the
is the pitch
pitch control
control model,totorealize
model, realizethe
the output
output variation
variation of
of renewable energy. In addition, the proposed method improved the speed of the output
fluctuation by changing the control gain value and speed up the fluctuation. We then mul-
tiplied the parameter value by the model generator’s install capacity to match the actual
generation output. Afterward, the test system confirmed that the output changed. Figure
10 shows that the existing Pgen (power generation) value of the test system changed from
66.528 MW to 65.8 MW, where the Pgen value was reduced by about 1% in 1 s.
 2.4. Wind Gust Modeling
The generic model provided by PSS/E in the dynamic modeling of the generators that
make up the renewable energy complex. Generator modeling consists of REGCAU1
Sustainability 2021, 13, 4205 [16,17], the electrical and mechanical modeling of REECAU1, and REPCAU1’s pitch con- 8 of 17
trol as shown in Figure 9. In this paper, the generation of wind changed the value of Model
VARS (L + 3) of REPCAU1, which is the pitch control model, to realize the output variation
of renewable
renewable energy.
energy. InInaddition,
addition,the
the proposed
proposed method
methodimproved
improvedthe speed
the speed of the output
of the output
fluctuation by changing the control gain value and speed up the fluctuation.
fluctuation by changing the control gain value and speed up the fluctuation. We then We then mul-
tiplied the parameter
multiplied the parametervaluevalue
by thebymodel generator’s
the model install capacity
generator’s to match to
install capacity thematch
actual the
generation output. Afterward, the test system confirmed that the output changed.
actual generation output. Afterward, the test system confirmed that the output changed. Figure
10 shows
Figure that thethat
10 shows existing Pgen (power
the existing generation)
Pgen (power value of value
generation) the test
ofsystem
the testchanged from
system changed
66.528
from MW to
66.528 MW65.8toMW,
65.8 where the Pgen
MW, where thevalue
Pgenwas reduced
value by about
was reduced by1% in 1 s.
about 1% in 1 s.

Sustainability 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 9 of 17

Figure 9. REPCAU1 Model of PSS/E [16,17].

Figure 9. REPCAU1 Model of PSS/E [16,17].

(a) Before variation

(b) After variation

Figure 10.
Figure 10.Compared
Comparedtotovariation
variationWind Pgen.
Wind Pgen.

3. Implementation of Probabilistic Transient Stability Assessment Simulator

3.1. Overall Flowchart
This paper created a probabilistic transient stability assessment simulator with the
PSS/E transient stability assessment engine and Python. As shown in Figure 11, the simu-
lator was designed by developing a variety of algorithms based on the PSS/e transient
Sustainability 2021, 13, 4205 9 of 17

3. Implementation of Probabilistic Transient Stability Assessment Simulator

3.1. Overall Flowchart
This paper created a probabilistic transient stability assessment simulator with the
PSS/E transient stability assessment engine and Python. As shown in Figure 11, the
simulator was designed by developing a variety of algorithms based on the PSS/e transient
stability interpretation engine. As shown in Figure 11, the probabilistic transient stability
module is mainly composed of Python and PSS/E engines. Each module is connected
Sustainability 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 10 of 17
by Python, and general steady state and probabilistic review are possible by using the
function of PSS/E.

Figure11.
Figure 11. Construction
Construction of a probabilistic transient stability
stability simulator
simulatorusing
usingPython.
Python.

3.2. Major Display of Simulator

It shows the basic display of the stochastic transient stability simulator, as shown in
Figure 12. The simulator includes scenario generation, transient stability assessment, and
rapid transient stability assessment including system contraction. For user convenience,
the settings consist of various parameters. For example, in transient stability evaluation,
failure time, simulation time, list of assumed accidents, scenario data, etc., are included.
Sustainability 2021, 13, 4205 10 of 17
Figure 11. Construction of a probabilistic transient stability simulator using Python.

Figure Figure 12. Probabilistic

12. Probabilistic transient
transient stabilitysimulator
stability simulator main
mainfunctions andand
functions UserUser
Interface (UI). (UI).
Interface

4. Case Study
In this section, several scenarios were reviewed based on the above-mentioned stochas-
tic transient stability method. The reviewed scenarios are shown in Table 2 below.

Table 2. Probabilistic scenarios.

No. Description
665 cases, which is 95 cases with effective capacity of 1
Scenario A
95% in Region A times 7 contingencies
Scenario B Simulating the 95 cased in Scenario A with the reduction method
Scenario C Estimating stability of some cases with interpolation method
Scenario D Simulating stability with the volatility of renewable energy using the gust model
Scenario E Comparing calculation time

4.1. Scenario A
In this scenario, the power system database for the probabilistic transient stability and
capacity thresholds in the East area of Korea includes the following:
- The confirmed amount of renewable energy plan for 2034
- Load levels of 100%
- 1% increase of power production in the East area (approximately 83 MW)
- 5.4 GW of power production in other areas, 7 contingencies in the East area
As shown in Tables 3 and 4, 95 scenarios and 7 contingencies were established and
analyzed. The solar facilities were set to 4.1 GW, and the wind to 4.2 GW in the East area.

Table 3. Index of Case.

Level (%) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ~ 92 93 94 95
Renewable
Generation 83 166 249 332 415 498 581 664 ~ 7659 7742 7825 7908
(MW)
Sustainability 2021, 13, 4205 11 of 17

Table 4. Index of contingency list.

No. Name Voltage Level Active Power (MW)

Contingency 1 SGP–GN 765 2510
Contingency 2 ST–SHW 765 984
Contingency 3 ST–GN 765 1674
Contingency 4 GN–DH 345 120
Contingency 5 GN–GN#2 345 1846
Contingency 6 SC–DH 345 326
Contingency 7 SYJ–SJ 345 296
Note: Acronymized names of the regions in Korea are used in column 2.

Figure 13 above shows the probability distribution and cumulative distribution of

the 665 cases. The blue areas represent stable areas, and the red areas represent instable
areas. According to the CDF diagram, the probability that the value is lower than 35, which
is the TSI threshold for instability in the Korean system is 4.81%. Additionally, Figure 13
Sustainability 2021, 13, x FOR PEERshows
REVIEWthat the TSI index falls below 35 where the effective capacity is 63%, which 12 of 17 has
approximately 5.3 GW of renewable energy power production in the East area. As shown
in Table 5, the time where TSI exceeds is shortened after the 63%. Therefore, the renewable
energy capacity
renewable in Region
energy capacityAinisRegion
thoughtA to be approximately
is thought 5.3 GW. The
to be approximately overall
5.3 GW. Thesimulation
over-
took about 73 min.
all simulation took about 73 min.

Figure
Figure 13. 13.
(a) (a) Probability
Probability densityfunctions,
density functions,(PDF)
(PDF) (b)
(b) Cumulative
Cumulative distribution
distributionfunctions (CDF),
functions (c) TSI
(CDF), of case.
(c) TSI of case.

Table 5. Transient Stability Index (TSI) and unstable time of each case.

Scenario No. TSI Time Scenario No TSI Time

1 54.9751 Stable 14 52.722 Stable
5 54.41605 Stable 18 51.98562 Stable
~
Sustainability 2021, 13, 4205 12 of 17

Table 5. Transient Stability Index (TSI) and unstable time of each case.

Scenario No. TSI Time Scenario No TSI Time

1 54.9751 Stable 14 52.722 Stable
5 54.41605 Stable 18 51.98562 Stable
~
63 (Unstable) −98.1799 3.351 72 −98.5122 2.435983
64 −98.2984 2.951976 73 −98.5222 2.415983
~

4.2. Scenario B
In this scenario, for the 95 cases in Scenario A, except for the East area, which is
Sustainability 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 13 of 17
the interested area, buses of 154 kV or higher were maintained to assess the transient
stability through the reduction method. During the reduction, the base generation in
the uninterested regions is maintained to identify system characteristics. As shown in
probability
Figure distribution
14, the probabilitywhere 3% error
distribution occurs
where 3%in the occurs
error probability
in theofprobability
TSI index isoflower than
TSI index
is35. As shown
lower in the
than 35. table, the
As shown simulation
in the ofsimulation
table, the all the transient
of all stabilities tookstabilities
the transient about 56took
min,
which56
about is min,
aboutwhich
17 minis shorter
about 17 than
minScenario
shorter A.
thanOverall, theA.
Scenario accuracy
Overall,has
thesome error,has
accuracy but
the speed
some error,isbut
superior.
the speed is superior.

(a) Before reduction PDF (b) Before reduction CDF

(c) After reduction PDF (d) After reduction CDF

Figure 14.
Figure 14. (a,b)
(a,b) Before
Before reduction
reduction PDF,
PDF,CDF.
CDF.(c,d)
(c,d)After
Afterreduction
reductionPDF,
PDF,CDF.
CDF.

4.3. Scenario C
The transient stability assessment for the 95 cases in Scenario A takes a long time.
Scenario B reduced the time using system reduction, but still takes too long to simulate
more cases. Therefore, in this scenario, the renewable energy capacity was calculated by
estimating the TSI index with a few cases using the interpolation method. Contingency 1
was selected from the list of contingencies in Scenario A and B, as it has the highest risk
and largest fluctuation in the TSI index. Out of the 95 cases, groups of 5% were selected
Sustainability 2021, 13, 4205 13 of 17

4.3. Scenario C
The transient stability assessment for the 95 cases in Scenario A takes a long time.
Scenario B reduced the time using system reduction, but still takes too long to simulate
more cases. Therefore, in this scenario, the renewable energy capacity was calculated by
estimating the TSI index with a few cases using the interpolation method. Contingency 1
was selected from the list of contingencies in Scenario A and B, as it has the highest risk and
largest fluctuation in the TSI index. Out of the 95 cases, groups of 5% were selected and the
effective capacity was calculated by estimating through interpolation using 13 TSI indices.
As shown in Figure 15, it was calculated using an interpolation method from the 1st terms
to the 6th terms. Based on this, the result of calculating the effective capacity of renewable
energy at the East area was calculated as the 65% point. This is the result of the 6th terms
with the lowest error rate among each polynomial interpolation method. This showed an
Sustainability 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW
error of 2% from the simulation result of scenario A. Additionally, the simulation time 14was
of 17
quite short, about 1 min.

Figure 15.
Figure 15. Interpolation-Based
Interpolation-Based Transient
TransientStability
StabilityAssessment.
Assessment.

4.4.
4.4. Scenario
Scenario DD
In
In this scenario,the
this scenario, thegust
gustmodel
modelis is
used to to
used increase thethe
increase power production
power fromfrom
production renew-
re-
able
newable energy. For system interpretation, the scenario includes the followings: wind
energy. For system interpretation, the scenario includes the followings: Only Only
power is changed
wind power by the gust
is changed model.
by the The capacity
gust model. is determined
The capacity by considering
is determined an increase
by considering an
by 100 MW for every repetition.
increase by 100 MW for every repetition.
- Including renewable
renewable energy
energy of
of around
around 9.5
9.5 GW
GW in
in the
the East
East area
area
-- Load
Load levels
levels of
of 100%
100%
As
As shown in in Table
Table 66below,
below,two twoscenarios
scenarioswere
werereviewed.
reviewed. The The renewable
renewable energy
energy ca-
capacities in the regions without renewable energy and in Gangwon
pacities in the regions without renewable energy and in Gangwon and Yeongdong re- and Yeongdong
regions were
gions were setset
withwith
3.53.5
GW GW (PV),
(PV), 5.4 5.4
GWGW (wind),
(wind), 700 700
MWMW (others)
(others) to establish
to establish cases.cases.
Syn-
Synchronous generators
chronous generators were
were reduced
reduced to adjust
to adjust thethe supply
supply andand demand
demand according
according to the
to the re-
renewable energy
newable energy capacities
capacities added.
added. In PSS/E,
In PSS/E, PV and
PV and wind wind
powerspowerswerewere modelled
modelled as
as gen-
generators
erators andand other
other types
types of of renewableenergy
renewable energywere
weremodelled
modelledas as loads.
loads. In the renewable
renewable
energy
energy generator
generator modelling,
modelling, thethe control
control mode
mode was
was basically
basically inin the
the power
power factor
factor control
control
mode, with PV at 1.0 and wind at 0.95. Then, it was increased
mode, with PV at 1.0 and wind at 0.95. Then, it was increased by 100 MW for everyby 100 MW for every
simu-
simulation to determine
lation to determine the renewable
the renewable capacity.
capacity.

Table 6. Result of Scenario E.

Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C

Cases 95 95 12
Contingency list 10 10 10
Simulation time 110 min 77 min 15 min
Sustainability 2021, 13, 4205 14 of 17

Table 6. Result of Scenario E.

Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C

Cases 95 95 12
Contingency list 10 10 10
Simulation time 110 min 77 min 15 min

As shown in Figure 16, the probability that the TSI index falls below 35 is about 30%.
When the range of the TSI index is exceeded, the increase in renewable energy appears after
increasing about 4.5 GW. This showed more acceptance than the previous scenario. This
Sustainability 2021, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 15 of 17
was judged as the difference between the amount of renewable energy in the uninterested
area and the general generation each scenario.

Figure
Figure 16.
16. CDF
CDF of
of Scenario
Scenario D.
D.

4.5. Scenario
4.5. Scenario EE
This scenario
This scenarioaims
aimstotocompare
comparethe the operation
operation timetime of scenarios
of scenarios A,and
A, B, B, and
C. TheC. sim-
The
simulation is performed under the same conditions and the calculation time
ulation is performed under the same conditions and the calculation time is compared. Theis compared.
The comparison
comparison conditions
conditions arefollows,
are as as follows,
and and the total
the total number
number of simulations
of simulations is 950.
is 950. As
As for
for CASEs
the the CASEs selected
selected for scenario
for scenario C simulation,
C simulation, 120 selected
120 selected casesselected.
cases were were selected. The
The results
results are shown in Table 6. The computer used in this study has the specifications
are shown in Table 6. The computer used in this study has the specifications of CPU i9- of CPU
i9-10900
10900 andand
RAM RAM32 32
GB.GB.
-- 95 Cases
95 Cases
-- 10 Contingency list
10 Contingency list

5. Simulation
5. Simulation Result
Result and
and Discussion
Discussion
The simulation
The simulation was
was based
based on on Python
Python and
and PSS/E.
PSS/E.WeWe tested
tested the
the receptivity
receptivity of
of renew-
renew-
able energy in the East area of Korea through repeated simulations based on
able energy in the East area of Korea through repeated simulations based on the Transientthe Transient
Stability Index
Stability Index (TSI).
(TSI).Prior
Priortotothe
thesimulation,
simulation,a asimple test
simple determined
test determined that thethe
that TSITSI
limit for
limit
Korea is 35. For scenario A, accuracy was prioritized. As a result, the renewable capacity
for Korea is 35. For scenario A, accuracy was prioritized. As a result, the renewable capac-
of Korea’s East region increases rapidly in the system when about 63% (5.3 GW) of the
ity of Korea’s East region increases rapidly in the system when about 63% (5.3 GW) of the
effective capacity. The disadvantage of scenario A is that it takes a long time. In the case
effective capacity. The disadvantage of scenario A is that it takes a long time. In the case
of scenario B, to secure this, the system was reduced except for the East area, which is an
of scenario B, to secure this, the system was reduced except for the East area, which is an
area of interest. In addition, the lines of less than 345 KV in the uninterested area were
area of interest. In addition, the lines of less than 345 KV in the uninterested area were
abbreviated and the characteristics of the generator were maintained. This method signifi-
abbreviated and the characteristics of the generator were maintained. This method signif-
cantly reduced the simulation time. There was a 3% error in terms of accuracy. However,
icantly reduced the simulation time. There was a 3% error in terms of accuracy. However,
this is an acceptable error rate. Scenario C used interpolation to predict acceptability limits
this is an acceptable error rate. Scenario C used interpolation to predict acceptability limits
by reviewing fewer scenarios. It used Python’s Numpy internal function. The result was
by reviewing fewer scenarios. It used Python’s Numpy internal function. The result was
a significant reduction in time and a margin of error of 2%. Scenario D, apart from the
previous scenario, used the dynamic GAST model to perform a test with the variation of
new regeneration. This affected the system by the rapid generators of the General Gener-
ators during the Dynamic Simulation. Thus, the results are quite stable. In the simulation
Sustainability 2021, 13, 4205 15 of 17

a significant reduction in time and a margin of error of 2%. Scenario D, apart from the
previous scenario, used the dynamic GAST model to perform a test with the variation of
new regeneration. This affected the system by the rapid generators of the General Genera-
tors during the Dynamic Simulation. Thus, the results are quite stable. In the simulation
conducted in this study, the transient stability was evaluated after constructing scenarios
for the effective capacity. This has the disadvantage of taking the longest time apart from
the static state. To solve this problem, we applied a technology that shortens the stability
time through interpolation and system reduction. In practical terms, we think it is suitable
to prepare for multiple scenarios when constructing a probabilistic scenario that predicts
the generation of PV and wind generator.

6. Conclusions
Korea is striving to reduce thermal power generation and increase renewable energy
to reduce carbon dioxide in line with renewable 3020 and international policies. In line with
these policies, large-scale renewable energy complexes are rapidly increasing, especially
solar and wind power. Renewable energy is characterized by high volatility and uncer-
tainty. Many studies are underway to analyze system stability for these renewable energies.
Among many studies recently, power system stability assessment for large-scale power
system complexes has been conducted in deterministic method. Deterministic method
can analyze properties of power systems through scenario creation, load flow calculation,
and N-1 contingency analysis. However, when the volatility increases with alignment of
a power system with renewable energy, this limits application of deterministic method.
To supplement limitations of deterministic method, the probabilistic stability assessment
method has been used, where scenarios extending to 8760 h are created to assess stability.
Table 1 shows characteristics of the deterministic method and the probabilistic method
to estimate renewable energy capacity limits. This paper introduces algorithms of the
probabilistic transient stability assessment considering volatility and uncertainty of renew-
able energy. First, probabilistic scenarios were created based on the history of effective
capacity and generation for 8760 h of renewable energy. A total of 8760 scenarios are
created by applying the generation quantity from the historical data based on the input
data of the maximum generation scenario. Second, a probabilistic transient stability assess-
ment was conducted using transient stability index, interpolation-based transient stability
index estimation, reduction-based transient stability index, etc. To reduce calculation time,
which is a disadvantage of the probabilistic transient stability assessment, interpolation
and reduction algorithms were applied to the transient stability assessment. Finally, a
probabilistic transient stability assessment simulator was created based on the scenario
creation, transient stability assessment algorithms, and probabilistic assessment. This paper
created 5 scenarios to validate consistency of the proposed paper. The transient stability
evaluation, which was previously conducted, tends to be limited in the selection of effective
capacity. The probabilistic aspect presented in this paper prepares for the uncertainty of
renewable energy. For this, many scenario are built over the steps mentioned above and
the transient stability is evaluated based on various effective capacities. This can yield
results for problems of power system that cannot be obtained in a deterministic evaluation.
In future studies, renewable energy generation predictions are made based on past data
and then a wide number of probabilistic scenarios are analyzed. We think this will be very
helpful in making decisions in the mid- to long-term planning stage. For the analysis of
such a wide range of scenarios, a multiprocessing process is used to improve accuracy
while reducing simulation time as shown in Figure 17.

Sustainability 2021, 13, 4205
capacities. This can yield results for problems of power system that cannot be obtained in
a deterministic evaluation. In future studies, renewable energy generation predictions are
made based on past data and then a wide number of probabilistic scenarios are analyzed.
We think this will be very helpful in making decisions in the mid- to long-term planning
stage. For the analysis of such a wide range of scenarios, a multiprocessing process is16used
of 17
to improve accuracy while reducing simulation time as shown in Figure 17.

Figure
Figure 17.
17. Multiprocessing
Multiprocessing Concept
Concept Drawing.
Drawing.

Author Contributions: Conceptualization, Y.-B.C. and Y.-S.C.; methodology, J.-G.L. and S.-C.O.;
software, Y.-B.C. and Y.-S.C. validation, Y.-B.C. and Y.-S.C.; formal analysis, Y.-B.C. and Y.-S.C.;
investigation, Y.-B.C., Y.-S.C., J.-G.L. and S.-C.O.; resources, Y.-B.C., Y.-S.C., J.-G.L. and S.-C.O.; data
curation, Y.-B.C., Y.-S.C., J.-G.L. and S.-C.O.; writing—original draft preparation, Y.-B.C. and Y.-S.C.;
writing—review and editing, Y.-B.C. and Y.-S.C.; visualization, Y.-B.C. and Y.-S.C.; supervision,
Y.-S.C.; project administration, Y.-S.C.; funding acquisition, Y.-S.C., J.-G.L. and S.-C.O. All authors
have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding: This work was supported by “Human Resources Program in Energy Technology” of the
Korea Institute of Energy Technology Evaluation and Planning (KETEP), granted financial resource
from the Ministry of Trade, Industry & Energy, Republic of Korea. (No. 20194010201760). This work
was supported by Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO).
Institutional Review Board Statement: Not applicable.
Informed Consent Statement: Not applicable.
Data Availability Statement: Not applicable.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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