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APRXXX10.1177/1532673X17719507American Politics ResearchMotta
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American Politics Research
2018, Vol. 46(3) 465–498
The Dynamics and © The Author(s) 2017
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DOI: 10.1177/1532673X17719507
https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X17719507
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Matthew Motta1
Abstract
Recently, Americans have become increasingly likely to hold anti-intellectual
attitudes (i.e., negative affect toward scientists and other experts). However,
few have investigated the political implications of anti-intellectualism, and
much empirical uncertainty surrounds whether or not these attitudes can be
mitigated. Drawing on cross-sectional General Social Survey (GSS) data and
a national election panel in 2016, I find that anti-intellectualism is associated
with not only the rejection of policy-relevant matters of scientific consensus
but support for political movements (e.g., “Brexit”) and politicians (e.g.,
George Wallace, Donald Trump) who are skeptical of experts. Critically,
though, I show that these effects can be mitigated. Verbal intelligence
plays a strong role in mitigating anti-intellectual sympathies, compared
with previously studied potential mitigators. I conclude by discussing how
scholars might build on this research to study the political consequences of
anti-intellectualism in the future.
Keywords
anti-intellectualism, antiscience attitudes, verbal intelligence, public opinion,
political psychology
Corresponding Author:
Matthew Motta, University of Minnesota–Twin Cities, 267 19th Avenue South S1414
SOCSCI, Minneapolis, MN 55405, USA.
Email: motta018@umn.edu
466 American Politics Research 46(3)
The distrust and dislike of scientists, academics, and experts more broadly
was a widely noted theme in the 2016 presidential election (e.g., Editorial
Board, 2016). Often, this affective aversion to experts is conceptualized as a
form of anti-intellectualism (Hofstadter, 1963; Rigney, 1991). Throughout
the 2016 presidential campaign, and in the months that followed, Republican
nominee Donald Trump, for example, made several notable appeals to anti-
intellectual sentiments.
For example, Trump questioned on several occasions whether or not cli-
mate scientists were secretly working with Chinese business interests to
falsely promote evidence of climate change, hinted at researchers’ ulterior
motives in producing research about the safety of vaccines, and called
researchers “idiots” for creating (and advocating the use of) environmentally
friendly but potentially carcinogenic lightbulbs (Swain & Wong, 2016). He
also repeatedly questioned whether or not polling methodologists were con-
spiring to sink his presidential bid by artificially deflating his standing in the
national polls (Golshan, 2016). Similar rhetoric was present too in Trump’s
transition to the White House, when a senior campaign advisor characterized
federal climate research programs as “politicized science” (Milman, 2016).
Overall, experts received a considerable amount of criticism on and off the
campaign trail in 2016.
Yet, while anti-intellectualism may seem like it has been a unique feature
of Donald Trump’s rhetoric in the 2016 campaign, recent research (e.g.,
Gauchat, 2012) suggests that anti-intellectual attitude endorsement has been
growing in the mass public for decades, especially on the ideological right.
Less well understood, however, are the political implications of growing anti-
intellectualism. Does voters’ distrust and dislike of experts fuel skepticism
about scientific consensus relevant to public policy matters? And might it
increase support for politicians and political movements who share their anti-
intellectual views? Moreover, can factors like individuals’ levels of education
and cognitive skill can mitigate holding these attitudes?
In this article, I advance two theories about the political relevance of mass
anti-intellectualism in American political life. First, while the causes of anti-
intellectualism have received some recently scholarly attention, few have
asked how negative affect toward scientists and experts might shape public
opinion and political behavior. The spillover effects thesis contends that neg-
ative affect toward experts makes citizens more likely to deny matters of
scientific consensus, and to lend support for campaigns and political move-
ments that are skeptical of experts and the research they produce.
Second, I suggest that it may be possible to discourage citizens from hold-
ing anti-intellectual attitudes. This possibility has received some scholarly
attention in recent years, with mixed empirical results. The mitigation thesis
Motta 467
Kruglanski, & Sulloway, 2003). However, Kahan (2012) finds little differ-
ence between liberals and conservatives on this score and shows that conser-
vatives who do engage in effortful cognitive processing are more likely to
engage in motivated reasoning.
The link between cognitive processing and motivated reasoning is important,
as many scholars have conceptualized scientific skepticism as a form of ideo-
logically motivated reasoning. Individuals are thought to be at least somewhat
aware of the parties’ positions on scientific matters. Because belief change is
cognitively taxing, individuals prefer to expend less cognitive effort in service
of the defense of the prior ideological commitments (Kraft, Lodge, & Taber,
2015; Lodge & Taber, 2013; see also Kunda, 1990). Consistent with this view,
Fowler and Gollust (2015) find that, as political elites polarize on newly intro-
duced issues pertaining to science (e.g., human papillomavirus vaccination
requirements in 2006-2007), support for related programs and trust of medical
experts more generally tends to decline. Liberals and conservatives alike have
been shown to take part in partisan-motivated reasoning of this variety, becom-
ing more trusting of scientists (Nisbet et al., 2015) and policies concerning the
research they produce (Bolsen, Druckman, & Cook, 2015) when the political
context in which information is presented matches their prior partisan commit-
ments. Nisbet and colleagues (2015) suggest that the contemporary prevalence
of anti-intellectual thinking among conservatives may simply be due to political
context, such that more matters of expert consensus run more contrary to con-
servative values and policy principles than they do for liberals.
What all of this research critically implies is that anti-intellectual attitudes
may not solely be the by-product of citizens’ partisan and ideological com-
mitments. While anti-intellectualism is undeniably affected by partisanship
and ideology, it also has the potential to exert its own influence on public
opinion. Even though conservatives have recently come to hold lower levels
of trust in scientific experts, Gauchat’s (2012) analysis reveals that levels of
trust among liberals have been only moderately positive. While the polariza-
tion of anti-intellectual attitudes may be a partisan phenomenon, some con-
servatives may not hold these attitudes and some liberals might also hold
some distrust toward experts.
Demonstrative of this point, Figure 1 extends Gauchat’s (2012) aggregate
analysis of public trust in the scientific community, which concluded in 2010,
through the most recent wave of the GSS (2014). As Gauchat does, the left-
hand panel plots mean levels of trust in the scientific community (a 3-point
scale ranging from 0 to 2, where a score of 0 indicates holding “hardly any”
trust and a score of 2 indicates holding “a lot” of trust) over time. Because
mean values on an ordinal scale can be difficult to interpret substantively, the
right-hand panel does the same using an alternate measure of trust in the
Motta 471
this may be true should be true for both liberals and conservatives. While
conservatives have become more likely to hold anti-intellectual attitudes in
recent years, and therefore exhibit the greatest potential for change, Figure 1
demonstrates that liberals too hold at least some skepticism toward experts.
Both groups therefore have at least some potential for change.
Consequently, in testing the Mitigation Hypothesis, I consider whether or
not verbal intelligence’s association with increased positivity toward scien-
tists and experts differs across citizens’ ideological preferences. With this in
mind, I propose Hypothesis 2a:
One important objection to this hypothesis may be that holding high levels
of verbal intelligence may actually exacerbate anti-intellectual attitudes for
some individuals. As mentioned above, nonverbal measures of intelligence
have indeed been shown to increase partisan polarization on matters pertain-
ing to science and expert opinion (e.g., Kahan, 2012; Kahan et al., 2013).
Individuals with high levels of verbal intelligence tend to be highly capable
of debating and counterarguing (Delia, Kline, & Burleson, 1979), which may
make them particularly good at crafting arguments and internal justifications
in service of their prior beliefs. Consequently, it may be the case that verbal
intelligence exacerbates holding anti-intellectual attitudes, among those most
likely to distrust and dislike experts, such as ideological conservatives
(Gauchat, 2012). With this alternative perspective in mind, I propose the
Exacerbation Hypothesis:
Measures
This study makes use of several different outcome and independent variables
across a number of datasets, which I describe below. Summary statistics and
more detailed information can be found in the Supplementary Materials.
Support for expert-averse politicians and political movements. The key out-
comes for Hypothesis 1b include variables that denote respondents’ affec-
tive or electoral support for expert-averse politicians and associated
political movements. In the 1972 GSS, I create a measure of 1968 vote
choice for American Independent George Wallace, dichotomized so that a
score of 1 indicates voting for him, and 0 indicates voting for the Repub-
lican or Democratic nominee. I do the same in the 2016 CSPP study, cre-
ating a variable where a score of 1 indicates voting for Donald Trump, and
0 indicates voting for Hillary Clinton. I also include measures of differen-
tial affect for Trump over Clinton by subtracting scores on 101 point
Trump feeling thermometers (ranging from 0 to 100) from those of Hill-
ary Clinton; in the CSPP study, the resulting scale was recoded to range
from 0 to 1, such that a score of 1 (0) indicates high differential affect for
Trump (Clinton), respectively, and a score of 0.5 indicates rating the two
similarly. Respondents were also asked whether they support, oppose, or
have not heard enough about the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the
EU (Brexit). Responses to this question were fashioned into a dichoto-
mous indicator of Brexit support (taking on a value of 1 if they support it,
and 0 otherwise).5
Demographic and political controls. All models control for respondents’ ideol-
ogy (0-1, where 1 indicates being extremely conservative), partisan identity
(dummy variables indicating self-identifications with the Democrats or
Republicans), strength of partisan identity (rescaled to range from 0 to 1,
such that 1 reflects strong partisanship), race (1 if White, 0 if non-White),
total family income (recoded to range from 0 to 1), education (dummy vari-
ables indicating whether or not individuals completed high school, some col-
lege, college, or postcollege degrees), age (recoded to range from 0 to 1, such
that an age of 1 reflects the oldest person in the dataset), gender (1 if female,
0 if male), and labor force status (1 if working, 0 if not working). As noted
earlier, the CSPP models also control for a number of factors that might alter-
natively explain support for Brexit and Donald Trump, including respon-
dents’ knowledge about civics (0-1, such that a score of 1 indicates holding
high knowledge), racial resentment (0-1, such that a score of 1 indicates high
resentment), hostile sexism (0-1, where 1 indicates holding high levels of
ambivalent sexism), authoritarianism (0-1, where 1 indicates being highly
authoritarian), and feeling thermometer toward Muslims (recoded to range
from 0 to 1, such that 1 indicates highly positive affect).
Results
The Political Implications of Anti-Intellectualism
To test the first component of spillover effects thesis (Hypothesis 1a), I
regress each indicator of belief in policy-relevant scientific consensus on
anti-intellectualism (and a host of demographic and political controls). The
full results of each model can be found in the appendix (Table A1) and are
summarized in Table 1.
In all seven models, anti-intellectualism was significantly (p < .05 in all
cases) associated with decreased belief in expert consensus with respect to
climate change and nuclear power safety. Because the models vary in their
estimation strategies, it is simplest to talk about these results in terms of lin-
ear predictions (ordinary least squares) and predicted probabilities (binary
and ordered maximun likelihood models). Movement from the minimum to
maximum observed values of anti-intellectualism in the 1993, 1994, and
2000 GSS (i.e., a “first difference”) was associated with an 8% decrease in
the likelihood of believing that the greenhouse effect poses a general risk to
the population, as well as to one’s own family (9%). Similar movement on the
anti-intellectualism variable was associated with a 7% increase in the belief
that nuclear power is extremely dangerous in general, and a 6% increase in
the belief that nuclear power poses threats to one’s family. In the CSPP study,
movement from the minimum to maximum value on the anti-intellectualism
Motta 481
Table A1
Pr(Greenhouse = Ext. GSS 93, 94, 00 0.69 0.17 * 0.20 0.12 −8%
Dangerous, in general)
Pr(Greenhouse = Ext. GSS 93, 94, 00 0.66 0.19 * 0.19 0.10 −9%
Dangerous, to family)
Pr(Nuke Power = Ext. GSS 93, 94 −0.47 0.17 * 0.19 0.26 +7%
Dangerous, in general)
Pr(Nuke Power = Ext. GSS 93, 94 −0.44 0.19 * 0.16 0.22 +6%
Dangerous, to family)
Pr(Climate Change CSPP W1 −0.81 0.22 * 0.66 0.48 −18%
Cause = Humans)
Pr(Climate Change CSPP W2 −0.94 0.33 * 0.68 0.51 −17%
Cause = Humans)
Pr(Climate Change CSPP W3 −1.10 0.41 * 0.61 0.39 −22%
Cause = Humans)
Table A2
Pr(Vote Wallace) GSS 1972 0.76 0.42 † 0.12 0.22 +9%
Net Trump Support CSPP W1 0.06 0.02 * 0.44 0.49 +5%
Net Trump Support CSPP W2 0.07 0.03 * 0.42 0.50 +9%
Net Trump Support CSPP W3 0.08 0.04 † 0.43 0.51 +8%
Pr(Vote Trump) CSPP W1 0.27 0.41 ns 0.41 0.44 +3%
Pr(Vote Trump) CSPP W2 1.10 0.53 * 0.36 0.46 +10%
Pr(Vote Trump) CSPP W3 0.34 0.60 ns 0.47 0.50 +3%
Pr(Support Brexit) CSPP W1 1.02 0.24 * 0.25 0.44 +18%
Note. Predicted probabilities (rows prefixed with “Pr”) and linear predictions presented, based on
models in Tables A1 and A2. All other covariates are held at their sample means. The first three columns
reprint the parameter estimates (β), standard errors, and p values associated with the anti-intellectualism
variable in the appendix. The remaining columns denote the probabilities and scores predicted when
anti-intellectualism is held at its lowest and highest (respectively) observed values, followed by the
resulting change in effect size moving from the minimum to maximum values (ΔMinimum–Maximum). For the GSS
parameters and probabilities, the effects of anti-intellectualism in rows 1 and 2 and 2 to 4 are expected
to differ in sign (i.e., because scientific consensus views greenhouse emissions as dangerous, and nuclear
power as not dangerous). CSPP = Center for the Study of political psychology.GSS = General Social Survey.
†p < .10. *p < .05.
with a 9% increase in the likelihood of voting for George Wallace in the 1968
presidential election, as well as a 10% increase in the likelihood of voting for
Donald Trump in 2016 (in the September, but not July or October waves of the
CSPP study). Similarly, and building on findings noting strong bivariate correla-
tions between expert distrust and Trump support, anti-intellectualism boosted
positive affect toward Trump in the multivariate models, relative to Clinton, by
5% in the July wave of the CSPP Study, 9% in the September wave, and 8% in
the October wave. Anti-intellectualism was also associated with a substantial
18% increase in support for the Brexit movement.6
(β* = 0.39, p < .01) and are uninfluenced by support for Trump (β* = 0.03, p
> .10). Thus, a reverse-causal story seems unlikely.8
(continued)
Motta 485
Table 2. (continued)
Wordsum
Post College
College
Some College
High School
these results mirror those presented in Model 1, it seems unlikely that the inclu-
sion of both terms in the model is posing a misspecification issue.
Next, Model 2 tests whether or not these mitigating effects vary across citi-
zens’ ideological identities. As noted previously, the models restrict analysis to
only waves of the GSS taken following 1994, to more easily detect any potential
moderation effects of ideology. The results show, however, that neither the effect
of verbal intelligence (β = −1.24, p > .10) nor even the highest educational
attainment indicator (β = 0.32, p > .10) was moderated by ideology. The mitigat-
ing power of both sets of variables, therefore, appears to be the same for liberals
and conservatives, consistent with the Mitigation Hypothesis (Hypothesis 2a)
and inconsistent with the idea that verbal intelligence exacerbates holding anti-
intellectual attitudes among conservatives (Hypothesis 2b).
However, because collapsing educational attainment into indicator vari-
ables introduces several interaction terms into the model that are likely at
least somewhat collinear, standard error inflation might complicate the abil-
ity to detect potential interaction effects. To assess this possibility, I collapsed
the educational attainment indicators into a single quasi-interval variable,
ranging from 0 (less than high school) to 1 (a graduate degree). The results
produced substantively and statistically similar interaction effects for both
verbal intelligence (β = −1.06, p > .10) and education (β = −0.45, p > .10).
Discussion
The results presented in this study suggest that anti-intellectualism is associated
with several political attitudes and behaviors that are relevant to contemporary
political life in the United States. Anti-intellectualism discourages citizens from
siding with experts on matters of scientific consensus and can more broadly help
explain why voters support candidates who criticize and denigrate scientists and
experts. In most cases, these effects were substantively large and statistically
significant; even when assessing the effect of anti-intellectualism alongside a
number of other powerful determinants of voter behavior in 2016.
More importantly, the results suggest that while anti-intellectualism is far
from rare in the mass public, it does not appear to be immutable. This study
demonstrates that individuals holding high levels of verbal intelligence are
less likely to hold anti-intellectual views than those with lower levels of ver-
bal intelligence. These effects significantly exceeded those of educational
attainment and were not moderated by ideology, which are notable departures
from previous research. Generally, this article suggests that verbal intelli-
gence ought to earn more scholarly consideration as a potential mitigator of
holding anti-intellectual attitudes.
It is important to note that the distrust of experts is not a wholly deleterious
influence in American political life. Some amount of skepticism about experts’
488 American Politics Research 46(3)
motives and the quality of the research they produce can actually be constructive
in creating public policies informed by an accurate understanding of relevant
information. Anti-intellectualism differs from healthy skepticism, however, in
that it captures not only a broad distrust toward experts but dislike for those lay-
ing claim to expertise. The result, as demonstrated here, is that citizens eschew
heeding experts’ insight about the facts surrounding politically relevant matters
and lend support to candidates and political movements that are hostile to allow-
ing expert-based evidence to inform policy decisions.
Of course, this research is not without limitations. For example, while the
variables used here all attempt to measure negative affect toward scientists and
experts, their psychometric properties are not fully understood. In the future,
scholars should consider validating and implementing scales specifically
designed to measure anti-intellectualism. Furthermore, scholars should also
devote more attention to empirically unpacking the mechanism by which verbal
intelligence mitigates anti-intellectualism, and consider alternate theoretical
accounts. For example, some might consider pitting the theoretical account pre-
sented here versus a group-centric account, whereby highly verbally intelligent
individuals see themselves as experts, and therefore hold more positive attitudes
about expertise. More generally, this research points to an important question
scholars ought to consider when studying Americans’ anti-intellectual attitudes in
the future. How can mass positivity toward scientists and experts be improved?
On one hand, though verbal intelligence is highly heritable (Bouchard, 1998), it
is at least somewhat malleable over the life course, especially at young ages
(Campbell, Ramey, Pungello, Sparling, & Miller-Johnson, 2002). Scholars could
plan and track the effectiveness of interventions designed to boost English com-
prehension at young ages, assessing whether or not they boost levels of verbal
intelligence and consequently decrease holding anti-intellectual attitudes.
Scholars might also consider how other factors might mitigate holding
anti-intellectual attitudes. Science communicators, of course, cannot alter the
public’s level of verbal intelligence with policy reports or televised advertise-
ments. However, consistent with recent work on combating partisan asym-
metries in unorthodox belief-holding (Berinsky, 2017), they could seek the aid
of individuals close to anti-intellectual politicians and causes. Should high-
profile supporters of Donald Trump, for example, come out in defense of
experts (e.g., by noting their general trustworthiness), they may be effective in
encouraging individuals who hold anti-intellectual attitudes to reconsider their
prior beliefs. Science communicators might also find success in issuing warn-
ings about the negative consequences of dismissing scientists and the research
they produce (Bolsen & Druckman, 2015). Most generally, future research
should explore how both individual differences and various communication
strategies might mitigate holding anti-intellectual attitudes.
Appendix
Table A1. Anti-Intellectualism and Skepticism about Policy-Relevant Science.
GSS CSPP
489
(continued)
Table A1. (continued)
490
GSS CSPP
Note. Unstandardized ordered logistic regression coefficients presented in columns 1 to 4, and OLS coefficients presented in columns 5 to 7. Standard errors in
parentheses. All survey data are weighted (see text). GSS models calculated with year fixed effects. CSPP = Center for the Study of Political Psychology; GSS = General
Social Survey; OLS = Ordinary Least Squares; PID = Partisan Identity.
†p < .10. *p < .05.
Table A2. Anti-Intellectualism and Support for Expert-Averse Politics.
GSS CSPP CSPP CSPP
Wallace Trump Feeling Trump Feeling Trump Feeling Trump Trump Trump
vote Thermometer Thermometer Thermometer vote vote vote Brexit
491
(continued)
Table A2. (continued)
492
GSS CSPP CSPP CSPP
Wallace Trump Feeling Trump Feeling Trump Feeling Trump Trump Trump
vote Thermometer Thermometer Thermometer vote vote vote Brexit
Note. Unstandardized logistic regression coefficients presented in column 1 and columns 5 to 8. OLS coefficients presented in columns 1 to 4. Standard errors in
parentheses. All survey data are weighted. Column 1 was limited to White respondents only, as no non-White respondents in the GSS (with nonmissing data on all
other covariates) reported voting for Wallace in 1968. Second, due to insufficient observations of individuals with some college and postcollege degrees in the 1972
wave, the column 1 education variable was collapsed into a binary indicator of whether or not individuals completed college. CSPP = Center for the Study of Political
Psychology; GSS = General Social Survey; OLS = Ordinary Least Squares; PID = Partisan Identity.
†p < .10. *p < .05.
Motta 493
Acknowledgments
I thank Joanne Miller, Wendy Rahn, Christina Farhart, Kristina Jessen Hansen, Julian
Christensen, Paul Goren, Chris Federico, and Howie Lavine for their invaluable feed-
back and suggestions.
Funding
The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research,
authorship, and/or publication of this article: The author was funded by the National
Science Foundation [grant no. 000039202].
Supplemental Material
Supplementary material is available for this article online.
Notes
1. For example, see https://www.timeshighereducation.com/blog/brexit-would-be-
victory-those-who-distrust-academics
2. See http://europe.newsweek.com/michael-gove-sky-news-brexit-economics-
imf-466365
3. This measure, on its face, pertains to scientists in general and has been inter-
preted as such in prior research (e.g., Gauchat, 2012). Consequently, it does not
address which specific considerations about scientists, experts, and/or scientific
research citizens bring to mind when responding to this question. It could be the
case, for example, that these responses are shaped by attitudes about particular
types of scientific research or scientists. Another alternative might be that atti-
tudes toward one or more scientific/expert groups “spill over” to shape attitudes
about scientists more broadly. Answering this question is outside the scope of
this project (and the present data), but it is a fascinating mechanism to study in
more detail in the future.
4. This account is primarily focused on the role that verbal intelligence plays in mit-
igating negative stereotypes about experts. Some might also wonder about the
relationship between verbal intelligence and positive stereotypes (Czopp, Kay, &
Cheryan, 2015) about experts, for example, that they are universally trustworthy
and/or likable. As the research summarized above suggests, verbal intelligence
is associated with an increased propensity to eschew heuristics in general, opting
for more careful, open-minded, and ultimately more cognitively taxing forms
of judgment formulation. Thus, to the extent that verbal intelligence influences
anti-intellectual attitudes, I suspect it to be based not on the replacement of one
494 American Politics Research 46(3)
heuristic for another but instead by formulating careful opinions that avoid defer-
ence to cognitive shortcuts.
5. My goal, in studying support for Brexit, is to better understand the correlates
of Americans’ sympathies with the movement. I do not intend to claim the
movement itself was caused by aversion to scientists and experts in the United
Kingdom. While this is an interesting question, and warrants future research, the
present data cannot speak to it.
6. Another plausible outcome to test in the General Social Survey (GSS) would
be support for George Bush over Michael Dukakis in 1988, although there are
a few complicating factors. As noted earlier, Bush made use of anti-intellectual
rhetoric from time to time in campaigning against Dukakis. Rigney argues, how-
ever, that Bush can actually be thought about as an intellectual himself (he was,
after all, both an ivy league grad and director of a large federal bureau). Thus,
my theoretical expectations about the link between Bush support are somewhat
unclear. Nevertheless, I consider the effect of anti-intellectualism on Bush sup-
port in the Supplementary Materials (Table S3). The results show no effect of
anti-intellectualism on Bush support, changing the substantive likelihood of vot-
ing for him by 0%.
7. The effect of anti-intellectualism was robust in all models, except for predicting
support for George Wallace. In that model, trust in the judicial system explained
away the effect of anti-intellectualism. However, as I noted earlier, the courts
were one of Wallace’s favorite targets of his anti-intellectual rhetoric. Thus, it
could be the case that court attitudes mediate the effect of anti-intellectualism
on Wallace support. As I detail in the note accompanying Table S4, formal
mediation tests show precisely this. Overall, while the argument for conflation is
important to bear in mind, this evidence is more consistent with the interpretation
of anti-intellectualism as a distinct construct.
8. Interestingly, the cross-lagged models displayed in Figure S1 do not yield a sig-
nificant effect of anti-intellectualism on Trump support in September, control-
ling for June levels of support. Conceptually, it is important to point out that
this null finding does not undermine the results presented in the main text so
far. While the alternative “reverse-causal” account is necessarily dynamic (i.e.,
supporting Trump leads to change in anti-intellectualism), the same is not neces-
sarily true about the effect of anti-intellectualism on Trump support. As I note in
Supplementary Materials, the effect of anti-intellectualism might best be thought
about as initially shaping support for Trump, which is then highly stable over
time. On an empirical level, this null finding is also somewhat unsurprising—as
June Trump support accounts for more than 72% of the variance in September
support, leaving little room for other factors to explain much variation. Given
high levels of temporal stability for both anti-intellectualism and Trump sup-
port, I respecified the cross-lagged models to control only for demographic and
political essentials (Figure S2). The reverse-causal account remains null under
this specification (β* = 0.03, p > .10), while the dynamic effect of anti-intellec-
tualism on Trump support does attain statistical significance (β* = 0.05, p < .05).
Motta 495
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Author Biography
Matthew Motta is a PhD candidate at the University of Minnesota in American
Politics and Quantitative Methodology. His research broadly focuses on public opin-
ion, political psychology, and survey methodology. He is also a research associate for
the Wesleyan Media Project.