EE5712: Power System Reliability

Homework 2, 26/08/08 Due: 02/09/08

Problem 1: Hazard Function Construction

A human’s lifetime cannot be exactly predicted, it can rather be characterized by the stochastic
properties. The reliability function, R(t), in this case is the survival probability at age t, which is
calculated by dividing number of survival at t by the total population. The cumulative failure probability,
F(t), of this case is the probability of death to age t and is found by dividing total number of death before
age t by total sample. The failure density function, f(t), is the probability of death per unit time at age t
and can be approximated from the following equation.

The hazard rate function, h(t), is the conditional probability of death per unit time at age t given that
they have survived up to time t, and can be approximated from the following equation.

Let us consider the following mortality data

t L(t) t L(t)
0 1023102 45 852554
1 1000000 50 810900
2 994230 55 754191
3 990114 60 677771
4 986767 65 577822
5 983817 70 454548
10 971804 75 315982
15 962270 80 181765
20 951483 85 78221
25 939197 90 21577
30 924609 95 3011
35 906554 99 125
40 883342 100 0
t=age in years, L(t)=number of living at age t

The data represents a number of survivals at different ages. The total sample size is 1023102. Plot R(t),
F(t), f(t) and h(t).

Problem 2: Series/Parallel Network

Consider the following system with four components, the success probability of C1, C2, C3, and C4 are
0.9, 0.9, 0.95, and 0.95 respectively.

C2
C1 C4

C3
 1. What is the system availability?
2. What is the probability that the system fails due to the components in series? Assume parallel
components do not fail?
3. What is the probability that the system fails due to components in parallel? Assume series
components do not fail?
4. Compute the probability that the system fails using the following formula.

5. Describe in words the meaning of each of the terms in the formula in question 4.
6. Use question 1 to compute the probability that the system fails.

Problem 3: Cut-set and Tie-set Method

Enumerate minimal cut sets and minimal tie sets for the following block diagram.