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LUBRICANT TRENDS,
PASSENGER CARS,
COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
23 JUNE 2020
Engine oil viscosity grade trends, which are crucial for accurate supply and
demand forecasting, are surprisingly difficult to call. Jeff Thompson, North
American Crankcase Market Manager, explores the factors influencing them
and reveals some of the latest thinking from Infineum on the future for both
passenger car and heavy-duty engine oils in North America.
Of all the lubricant-related questions Infineum receives, those concerning future SAE
viscosity grade trends are some of the most common. Not surprising, since they are
critical factors when supply planning for base stocks and viscosity modifiers, which means
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it is really important to get them right. On the surface this might seem straightforward but,
since there are a wide range of factors that can influence them, these predictions are in
reality very complex.
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Heavy-duty diesel market
In 2019, North American heavy-duty diesel (HDD) vehicle sales saw strong growth,
reaching some 276,000. The vehicle parc is split some 60% being on-highway and 40%
off highway, with each application having its own lubrication requirements. COVID-19 is
impacting Class 8 sales, with orders in North America in May down 38% on the previous
year. This, combined with a rush to cancel previous bookings, puts fewer of the latest
technology trucks on the roads.
On the specification front, to support fuel economy drivers and the introduction of new
emissions reduction hardware, API introduced CK-4 and FA-4 on December 1 2016. The
new standards delivered improved aeration performance, wear and deposit protection,
oxidation control and shear stability over API CJ-4. In addition, API FA-4 introduced fuel
economy SAE XW-30 grades with high temperature high shear (HTHS) viscosity range of
2.9cP–3.2cP for on-highway applications. To date there have been 1,385 API CK-4
registrations, while API FA-4 registrations seem to have flattened out at 105.
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Heavy-duty diesel viscosity trends
In this market, SAE 15W-40 had been the workhorse viscosity grade for many years, but
it has peaked and is forecast to decline to near 30% by 2029. And, although OEMs have
been using SAE 10W-30 since API CJ-4 was introduced in 2006, it has until now had only
a small market position. Looking ahead, since the fuel saving benefits of lower viscosity
lubricants are considerable and OEM specifications are being introduced to support their
use, the growth of lower viscosity grades should be significant. A rapid shift towards SAE
10W-30 is expected – especially in the on-highway sector. By 2029, SAE 10W-30 may
account for ~40% of the market and high value SAE 5W-XX, although not reaching
mainline volumes, could make ~10%. The growth of even lower SAE XW-20 volumes
however looks likely to be a slow process that depends on further innovations by HDD
OEMs.
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Impact on additives
In both PCMO and HDD applications it is essential that, in the quest for fuel economy, the
introduction of lower viscosity grades does not compromise engine durability or emissions
system compatibility. Additives are designed to ensure lubricants can function at much
lower viscosities and retain their protective properties over ever extending drain intervals.
New lubricants not only provide enhanced fuel economy via their viscometric and frictional
properties but also enable the introduction of new engine technologies that provide
significant increases in both fuel economy and engine performance under more extreme
operating temperatures.
Summary
Predicting future viscosity trends requires a large amount of data, detailed market
research and a high degree of insight. As pressures to curb CO2 emissions drive the
automotive industry to further improve fuel economy we can expect the trend to lower
viscosity engine oils to continue. In Japan, for example, the new ultra-low-viscosity
gasoline passenger car engine oil specification JASO GLV-1 has been claimable since
October 2019, which paves the way for the introduction of SAE 0W-8 oils. HDD OEMs
see real fuel economy savings at potentially targeting SAE XW-20 and lower oils in future
designs.
The question that remains is: just how fast and how far will
this trend to low viscosity go?
While we can say with some certainty that no prediction on this topic is perfect, Infineum
will continue to monitor the market to understand how quickly we shift but it is also
investing to always be ready with the technology needed to support even the most
extreme low viscosity needs.
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