FROM INFINEUM INTERNATIONAL LIMITED

LUBRICANT TRENDS,
PASSENGER CARS,
WHY HYBRIDS MATTER

15 JANUARY 2019

Ricardo on future
lubricants
Engine design changes bring significant
challenges for lubricants

Driven by emissions regulations and consumer demands for

fun to drive, affordable yet efficient vehicles, engine
technology is changing fast. Simon Arbuthnot, European
Regional Director at global transport, engineering and
environmental consultancy Ricardo Strategic Consulting,
offers his perspective on the changes ahead and the ways
lubricant companies will need to work to keep up.
Today’s complex and rather uncertain passenger car market
is being shaped by a number of megatrends, including
population growth, urbanisation, connectivity and
environmental concern, which are all driving a new set of
requirements and behaviours.

We can expect the rising population and growing personal

wealth to drive growth in global vehicle demand, - even if the
markets in mature economies will stagnate. While on the
other side of the equation come environmental awareness,
urbanisation and vehicle sharing, which could dampen
vehicle sales.

But whatever the sales scenario, I see three clear drivers

that will compel OEMs to make improvements to vehicle
technology: air quality, climate change and urbanisation.
These will all shape automotive emissions and fuel
efficiency – demanding dramatically reduced tailpipe and
CO2 emissions, fuel economy improvements and ultimately
zero emissions travel.
 In terms of the biggest challenge -
reducing fossil fuel consumption so that
fewer emissions are generated - there
remains significant discontinuity
amongst not just regulators, but also
consumers and mobility service
providers, which spells disruption for the
future.

For example, many jurisdictions across the globe are

tightening CO2 emissions regulations and we will see real
step changes in Europe, India and China over the next few
years. In the US, under the current administration, there is a
level of uncertainty on the future of emissions cuts, with EPA
backing off future targets, while individual states make
decisions to further cut CO2.

Since a range of technologies will be required to meet

challenging future targets, OEMs are looking across the
whole vehicle for solutions to deliver affordable, lower
carbon and cleaner transport options. Activities range from
improved aerodynamics and light weighting, to greener fuels
and lower CO2 forms of electricity, right through to major
new advances in conventional combustion engine
technology. What seems clear to me, is that we are nearing
the point where the limit on internal combustion engine (ICE)
efficiency will be reached and vehicles will need increasing
degrees of electrification to comply with future fleet-wide
targets.

Electrification a key strategy

Electrification stands out as a key pillar of OEM strategies.
And, as costs start to fall, OEMs are expected to employ the
full spectrum of electrification options – from micro, to mild
hybrids, through full hybrid, plug-in hybrid, range extender
and up to full battery electric vehicles. As we move through
the range of possibilities, although the electric power and
energy storage potential increases, so does the cost. OEMs
will need to balance the advantages against the higher price
tag, which may make the vehicles less appealing to
consumers. But, what has been evident, since Dieselgate
and the introduction of ultra-low emissions zones in some
cities, is a publicly stated commitment from many OEMs to
introduce increasing levels of electrification (albeit with an
ICE still providing some power to the wheels) and full
electric vehicles.

However, despite the bold press statements from some

OEMs, forecasts on vehicle electrification are generally low
and subject to a high degree of variation.

Using various scenarios, market

watchers are estimating anywhere from
as low as 4% to as high as 65% for the
market penetration of battery electric
vehicles and plug-in hybrids by 2030;
depending on technology
breakthroughs for energy storage and
levels of price decreases.

Based on industry feedback post Dieselgate, Ricardo

estimates that the manufacture and sales of these vehicles
will reach 30-40% by 2030. What I can say with some
certainty is that this trend to hybridisation and electrification
will be mirrored by increasing levels of powertrain
complexity and differentiation.

Pace of vehicle electrification

What our estimates suggest is that there will be little room
for non-electrified, ICE-only vehicles in the future and their
share will continue to decline rapidly. Micro hybrids will
become mainstream by 2020, but decline drastically post
2025, as higher levels of electrification take increasing
market share.
Mild hybrids, will grow to about 30% by 2030 as confidence
in 48V systems improves. Battery electric and plug-ins will
both experience growth towards the end of the forecast
period, together accounting for around 34% of the market by
2030.

All these changes mean that by 2030 we will be heading

down three very different powertrain paths:

1. Optimised, predominantly gasoline, ICE with mild hybrid

and CO2 neutral fuels
2. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle with >50km pure electric
range
3. Battery electric with >400km range
Clearly, in options 1 and 2 advanced conventional ICE
technology will still have a role to play. However, conflicting
demands for air quality improvement, refuelling
infrastructure and sustainable fuels means we can expect a
very diverse powertrain landscape for many years to come.

ICE efficiency gains play a vital role

Even by 2050, when we expect all vehicles to be electrified
with a minimum 48V for ICE and 300-800 volts for battery
electric vehicles, up to 30% of vehicles will still contain an
ICE. This means continued efficiency improvement of
conventional - predominantly gasoline powered - ICE
technology is a high priority.

What we can expect is that downsizing, increased

turbocharging, friction reduction and down-speeding will be
common to all engines. In addition, we will see
advancements in aftertreatment and combustion technology,
along with an increased use of biofuels. All of these changes
will create challenges for lubricant formulations.

Lubricants need to deliver engine protection at higher

temperatures and pressures and offer advanced hardware
protection over their lifetime in the crankcase. However, they
will also need to achieve these performance requirements in
a more chemically constrained environment, at lower
viscosity levels and over a broader range of operating
conditions.

Issues such as catalyst sensitivity,

particulate filter regeneration, low-speed
pre-ignition, and increased fuel in oil
dilution will all need to be carefully
managed.

At Ricardo we think that, despite all these changes, lubricant

volumes are likely to be maintained, although regulatory
changes mean lubricant specifications with higher
performance targets are very likely to be introduced.

Conclusion
The regulatory focus on emissions and CO2/fuel economy is
intensifying, with high expectations on the potential for
improvements in the transport sector. Powertrain
electrification is now a central thrust in the development of
mainstream vehicles for many OEMs.

Despite all the electrification activity,

more than 80% of a growing, global
market for light-duty vehicles will still
need an internal combustion engine by
2030.

This means investing in efficiency improvements of these

conventional powertrains still makes sense. To this end we
can expect further engine downsizing, friction reduction and
combustion improvements - although none must come at
the expense of power output and driveability.
 All of these changes impact the lubricant. To reduce internal
friction over a broader range of operating conditions,
viscosity will continue to decrease. However, these thinner
lubricants must also deliver sufficient hardware protection at
much higher levels of thermal loading over longer service
intervals. Despite the smaller engine displacements OEMs
are tending to maintain lubricant volume. This is because,
although traditionally smaller displacement engines required
a smaller volume of lubricants, the fact that future
downsized, boosted ICEs are in themselves ‘working harder’
means that higher volumes of lubricants per displacement
will be required. At least in the medium term, we can expect
the demand for advanced powertrain lubricants to be fairly
stable.

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