Oracle Demand Planning

TCMOAUG

June 15th, 2006

Agenda

◆ Demand Planning?
■ How do I know about it?
■ Why do I need it, what do I need to know, and what am I going to do
with it?
◆ Oracle Demand Planning
■ Oracle’s module to help forecast demand
◆ Review of functionality
■ Collections
■ Steps of a plan
◆ Where do we go from here?
■ Future forecasting with ODP
■ Lessons learned
◆ Q&A

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Demand Planning?

Who’s this guy?

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Demand Planning?

◆ Why do I need it?

■ Recognize variability and demand patterns
■ Translate patterns into profits
■ Effective planning
■ Service
■ Examine demand further
◆ How to be successful
■ Solutions today
■ Multiple forecasts at a global level

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Demand Planning?

◆ What do I need to know?

■ Historical sales
■ Customers data
◆ Major dimensions
■ Time
■ Products
■ Additional dimensions
◆ Data and those who use it!
■ Be ready!

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Demand Planning?

◆ What am I going to do with it?

■ Evaluation
■ Determine trends
■ Management
■ “Quantitative methods with qualitative information”
◆ Improving forecasts
■ Accuracy
■ No longer “Stats 101”
■ “Match game” with your data

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Demand Planning?

◆ So, HOW am I going to do it?

Oracle Demand Planning

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Oracle Demand Planning

◆ Advanced Planning & Scheduling

◆ Key features:
■ Consensus forecast
■ Forecast accuracy
■ Reduce “NVAs”
■ “Continuous Improvement”
◆ Helpful Capabilities
■ Decision support and analysis
■ Wizard-based forecasting
■ Support for new data
■ ERP and APS integration

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Review of Functionality

◆ APS Concerns
■ Centralized vs. Decentralized
■ Other Modules
■ Instances
■ And…
◆ ODP Setup
■ Collections
■ Dimensions (if needed)
■ Hierarchies (if needed)
• Implementation example
■ Other
◆ ODP Basics
■ Planning server

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Review of Functionality

◆ Flexible Data Streams

■ WHAT?
◆ Two types…
■ Basic vs. Advanced
■ More importantly, flat file or spreadsheet
■ Another possibility?
• Implementation note
◆ Uses
■ Customer’s data
■ Legacy systems
◆ Need more input!
■ Allows more flexibility
■ Any kind of data (almost!)

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Review of Functionality

◆ Collections
■ Standard
• Shipment Data
• Order Backlog
• Material Usage
• Sales Forecast
• Pricing Data
• And many more!
■ Level Values
• Dimensions and Hierarchies
◆ Unlike ASCP…
■ Implementation suggestion
◆ Two-step collections

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Review of Functionality

◆ Demand Plan Setup

■ Global, but defined at an organization
■ Inputs and outputs
■ Trial and error
◆ Inputs
■ Dimensions
■ Input Parameter(s)
◆ Outputs
■ Scenarios
◆ Additional information
■ Events
■ Price lists

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Review of Functionality

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Review of Functionality

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Review of Functionality

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Review of Functionality

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Review of Functionality

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Review of Functionality

◆ Validate and build

■ Validation
■ Build
• Implementation note
◆ The five stages
■ Stage 1 – Download Data from the Planning Server
■ Stage 2 – Populate Measures
■ Stage 3 – Distribute to Planners
■ Stage 4 – Collect Data from Planners
■ Stage 5 – Upload Measures

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Review of Functionality – Stage 1

◆ Starting with a “built” plan…

◆ Download from Planning Server
■ Initiate the “cycle”
■ Shared Database
■ Full refresh or update
◆ After stage 1 you can:
■ Create and edit measures, events
■ Set defaults for predefined reports
◆ Implementation
■ Timing/Progress
■ Refresh concerns
■ SIZE!

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Review of Functionality – Stage 2

◆ Populating Measures
■ Calculate measures
■ Run forecasts
◆ After stage 2 you can:
■ Define planner assignments
◆ Implementation
■ Responsibilities
■ Timing
■ Planner assignments

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Review of Functionality – Stage 3

◆ Distributing to planners
■ Personal Databases
■ The real “work” begins…
◆ After stage 3 you can:
■ Modify forecasts
■ Worksheets
■ Predefined and ad-hoc reports
◆ Once satisfied
■ Submitting forecasts
◆ Implementation
■ Submitting forecasts
■ Timing issues: before and after
■ SIZE!

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Review of Functionality – Stage 4

◆ Collecting Data From Planners

■ Collect and combine
■ Defaults
◆ After stage 4 you can:
■ Manager can review and revise
■ Same methods
◆ Implementation
■ Again, responsibilities
■ Timing
■ Automation

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Review of Functionality – Stage 5

◆ Uploading Measures
■ Planning Server
◆ After stage 5 you can:

PUBLISH!!
◆ Whew! Now what?

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Review of Functionality

◆ Publishing a forecast
■ APS Modules
■ MRP
◆ Next period?
■ Minor changes during the period
■ Rolling the forecast forward

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Where do we go from here?

◆ The future…
■ Customization
■ Advanced Forecasting
• Customer Forecasts
• Division Forecasts
■ Events, promotions, etc.
◆ Lessons?
■ Planning knowledge
• Users AND implementation analysts
■ APS – Always Plan Small, at least to start!
■ Data looking TOO foreign?
• Purge!
■ Try, try, and try again!
■ Final thought

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 Q&A
Richard Walker
rwalker@gr.com
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