SMIC - ESDAL 1 Page 1 / 14

Rapport Smic-Prob-Expert
Esdal 1

The SMIC method is created by Michel Godet and developed within LIPSOR - Godet, M. “Manuel de prospective stratégique, Tome 2”. Dunod
2001 - Godet, M. “Creating Futures Scenario Planning as a strategic Management Tool”. Economica.
SMIC - ESDAL 1 Page 2 / 14

SUMMARY
NO TABLE OF CONTENTS ENTRIES FOUND.

The SMIC method is created by Michel Godet and developed within LIPSOR - Godet, M. “Manuel de prospective stratégique, Tome 2”. Dunod
2001 - Godet, M. “Creating Futures Scenario Planning as a strategic Management Tool”. Economica.
SMIC - ESDAL 1 Page 3 / 14

HYPOTHESES
HYPOTHESIS LIST
 ALOKASI PERIKANAN (FISHALOC)
 ALOKASI KONSERVASI (CONSERV)
 WISATA TERBATAS (TOURSM)
 PERUNTUKAN LAIN (OTHERS)
HYPOTHESIS DESCRIPTION
ALOKASI PERIKANAN (FISHALOC)
ALOKASI KONSERVASI (CONSERV)
WISATA TERBATAS (TOURSM)
PERUNTUKAN LAIN (OTHERS)
EXPERTS
EXPERT GROUP LIST
 ALLEXPERT

 POLICY
EXPERT LIST

ALLEXPERT

 AGREGAT AGREGAT

POLICY

The SMIC method is created by Michel Godet and developed within LIPSOR - Godet, M. “Manuel de prospective stratégique, Tome 2”. Dunod
2001 - Godet, M. “Creating Futures Scenario Planning as a strategic Management Tool”. Economica.
SMIC - ESDAL 1 Page 4 / 14

 POLEXPERT POLEXPERT
EXPERT DESCRIPTION
AGREGAT AGREGAT
EXPERT GROUP : ALLEXPERT
WEIGHT : 1
POLEXPERT POLEXPERT
EXPERT GROUP : POLICY
WEIGHT : 1
SMIC-PROB-EXPERT STUDY
ALLEXPERT

SYNTHÈSE DU GROUPE : ALLEXPERT

NET DATA
NET DATA: SIMPLE PROBABILITIES (ALLEXPERT)
Probabilities
© LIPSOR-EPITA-PROB-EXPERT

1 : fishaloc 0,377
2 : conserv 0,567
3 : toursm 0,628
4 : others 0,414

VALUES EXPRESS NET SIMPLE PROBABILITIES

NET DATA: CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES IF
REALISATION (ALLEXPERT)

The SMIC method is created by Michel Godet and developed within LIPSOR - Godet, M. “Manuel de prospective stratégique, Tome 2”. Dunod
2001 - Godet, M. “Creating Futures Scenario Planning as a strategic Management Tool”. Economica.
SMIC - ESDAL 1 Page 5 / 14

© LIPSOR-EPITA-PROB-EXPERT
fishaloc

conserv

toursm

others
1 : fishaloc 0,377 0,351 0,346 0,201
2 : conserv 0,527 0,567 0,837 0,464
3 : toursm 0,575 0,926 0,628 0,71
4 : others 0,221 0,338 0,469 0,414

VALUES EXPRESS RAW CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES

IF REALISATION

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
MATRICE D'ÉLASTICITÉ (ALLEXPERT)
fishaloc

conserv

toursm

others

Absolute value
© LIPSOR-EPITA-PROB-EXPERT

1 : fishaloc 1 -0,312 -0,28 -0,467 1,058

2 : conserv -0,379 1 0,153 -0,49 1,022
3 : toursm -0,279 0,269 1 -0,059 0,607
4 : others -0,515 -0,378 -0,192 1 1,085
5 : Absolute value 1,173 0,958 0,624 1,016 _

VALUES ARE USED TO DETERMINE HOW VARIABLES

INFLUENCE EACH OTHER. THEY ARE CALCULATED
WITH A VARIATION EQUAL TO 0.1.

POLICY
SYNTHÈSE DU GROUPE : POLICY

NET DATA
NET DATA: SIMPLE PROBABILITIES (POLICY)

The SMIC method is created by Michel Godet and developed within LIPSOR - Godet, M. “Manuel de prospective stratégique, Tome 2”. Dunod
2001 - Godet, M. “Creating Futures Scenario Planning as a strategic Management Tool”. Economica.
SMIC - ESDAL 1 Page 6 / 14

Probabilities
© LIPSOR-EPITA-PROB-EXPERT
1 : fishaloc 0,392
2 : conserv 0,406
3 : toursm 0,309
4 : others 0,602

VALUES EXPRESS NET SIMPLE PROBABILITIES

NET DATA: CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES IF
REALISATION (POLICY)
© LIPSOR-EPITA-PROB-EXPERT
fishaloc

conserv

toursm

others

1 : fishaloc 0,392 0,49 0,69 0,405

2 : conserv 0,508 0,406 0,386 0,316
3 : toursm 0,544 0,293 0,309 0,108
4 : others 0,623 0,469 0,211 0,602

VALUES EXPRESS RAW CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES

IF REALISATION

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
MATRICE D'ÉLASTICITÉ (POLICY)
fishaloc

conserv

toursm

others

Absolute value
© LIPSOR-EPITA-PROB-EXPERT

1 : fishaloc 1 -0,053 0,126 -0,149 0,328

2 : conserv -0,177 1 -0,361 -0,447 0,986
3 : toursm -0,024 -0,264 1 -0,429 0,717
4 : others -0,569 -1,099 -1,838 1 3,505
5 : Absolute value 0,77 1,416 2,325 1,025 _

The SMIC method is created by Michel Godet and developed within LIPSOR - Godet, M. “Manuel de prospective stratégique, Tome 2”. Dunod
2001 - Godet, M. “Creating Futures Scenario Planning as a strategic Management Tool”. Economica.
SMIC - ESDAL 1 Page 7 / 14

VALUES ARE USED TO DETERMINE HOW VARIABLES

INFLUENCE EACH OTHER. THEY ARE CALCULATED
WITH A VARIATION EQUAL TO 0.1.

SYNTHÈSE SUR L'ENSEMBLE DES EXPERTS

RAW DATA PROCESSING

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY IF NON-REALISATION
DISTRIBUTION:FISHALOC/CONSERV

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY IF NON-REALISATION

DISTRIBUTION:FISHALOC/TOURSM

The SMIC method is created by Michel Godet and developed within LIPSOR - Godet, M. “Manuel de prospective stratégique, Tome 2”. Dunod
2001 - Godet, M. “Creating Futures Scenario Planning as a strategic Management Tool”. Economica.
SMIC - ESDAL 1 Page 8 / 14

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY IF NON-REALISATION

DISTRIBUTION:FISHALOC/OTHERS

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY IF NON-REALISATION

DISTRIBUTION:CONSERV/FISHALOC

The SMIC method is created by Michel Godet and developed within LIPSOR - Godet, M. “Manuel de prospective stratégique, Tome 2”. Dunod
2001 - Godet, M. “Creating Futures Scenario Planning as a strategic Management Tool”. Economica.
SMIC - ESDAL 1 Page 9 / 14

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY IF NON-REALISATION

DISTRIBUTION:CONSERV/TOURSM

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY IF NON-REALISATION

DISTRIBUTION:CONSERV/OTHERS

The SMIC method is created by Michel Godet and developed within LIPSOR - Godet, M. “Manuel de prospective stratégique, Tome 2”. Dunod
2001 - Godet, M. “Creating Futures Scenario Planning as a strategic Management Tool”. Economica.
SMIC - ESDAL 1 Page 10 / 14

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY IF NON-REALISATION

DISTRIBUTION:TOURSM/FISHALOC

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY IF NON-REALISATION

DISTRIBUTION:TOURSM/CONSERV

The SMIC method is created by Michel Godet and developed within LIPSOR - Godet, M. “Manuel de prospective stratégique, Tome 2”. Dunod
2001 - Godet, M. “Creating Futures Scenario Planning as a strategic Management Tool”. Economica.
SMIC - ESDAL 1 Page 11 / 14

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY IF NON-REALISATION

DISTRIBUTION:TOURSM/OTHERS

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY IF NON-REALISATION

DISTRIBUTION:OTHERS/FISHALOC

The SMIC method is created by Michel Godet and developed within LIPSOR - Godet, M. “Manuel de prospective stratégique, Tome 2”. Dunod
2001 - Godet, M. “Creating Futures Scenario Planning as a strategic Management Tool”. Economica.
SMIC - ESDAL 1 Page 12 / 14

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY IF NON-REALISATION

DISTRIBUTION:OTHERS/CONSERV

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY IF NON-REALISATION

DISTRIBUTION:OTHERS/TOURSM

The SMIC method is created by Michel Godet and developed within LIPSOR - Godet, M. “Manuel de prospective stratégique, Tome 2”. Dunod
2001 - Godet, M. “Creating Futures Scenario Planning as a strategic Management Tool”. Economica.
SMIC - ESDAL 1 Page 13 / 14

NET DATA
NET DATA: SIMPLE PROBABILITIES (ALL EXPERTS)
Probabilities
© LIPSOR-EPITA-PROB-EXPERT

1 : fishaloc 0,377
2 : conserv 0,567
3 : toursm 0,628
4 : others 0,414

VALUES EXPRESS NET SIMPLE PROBABILITIES

NET DATA: CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES IF
REALISATION (ALL EXPERTS)

The SMIC method is created by Michel Godet and developed within LIPSOR - Godet, M. “Manuel de prospective stratégique, Tome 2”. Dunod
2001 - Godet, M. “Creating Futures Scenario Planning as a strategic Management Tool”. Economica.
SMIC - ESDAL 1 Page 14 / 14

© LIPSOR-EPITA-PROB-EXPERT
fishaloc

conserv

toursm

others
1 : fishaloc 0,377 0,351 0,346 0,201
2 : conserv 0,527 0,567 0,837 0,464
3 : toursm 0,575 0,926 0,628 0,71
4 : others 0,221 0,338 0,469 0,414

VALUES EXPRESS RAW CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES

IF REALISATION

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
MATRICE D'ÉLASTICITÉ (ALL EXPERTS)
fishaloc

conserv

toursm

others

Absolute value
© LIPSOR-EPITA-PROB-EXPERT

1 : fishaloc 1 -0,312 -0,28 -0,467 1,058

2 : conserv -0,379 1 0,153 -0,49 1,022
3 : toursm -0,279 0,269 1 -0,059 0,607
4 : others -0,515 -0,378 -0,192 1 1,085
5 : Absolute value 1,173 0,958 0,624 1,016 _

VALUES ARE USED TO DETERMINE HOW VARIABLES

INFLUENCE EACH OTHER. THEY ARE CALCULATED
WITH A VARIATION EQUAL TO 0.1.

The SMIC method is created by Michel Godet and developed within LIPSOR - Godet, M. “Manuel de prospective stratégique, Tome 2”. Dunod
2001 - Godet, M. “Creating Futures Scenario Planning as a strategic Management Tool”. Economica.