Homework/Assignment 14

(Chapter 9: Input Modelling)

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 Problem(s)
I. MCQ
1. Which of the following distribution(s) is for discrete variable (you can choose
more than one)
a. Exponential
b. Poisson
c. Normal
d. Uniform
e. Weibull
f. Empirical
2. Which method can be used to identify the distribution with data?
a. Histogram
b. Q-Q plot
c. K-S test
d. All of the above
3. Which one is not true about Q-Q plot?
a. To evaluate the fit of the chosen distribution
b. To evaluate if 2 sets of data have the same distribution
c. The linearity of the points in the middle of the plot is less important than the
linearity at the extreme
d. The observed values will never fall exactly on a straight line
4. Which hypothesis testing can be used to test goodness of fit when the number of
data is limited?
a. Chi-square test
b. T-test
c. Pair T test
d. K-S test

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5. Which hypothesis test formalizes the intuitive idea of comparing the histogram of
the data to the shape of the candidate density or mass function?
a. Chi-square test
b. T-test
c. Pair T test
1. K-S test
6. Which of the below statement is not true regarding the Nonstationary Poisson
Process?
a. Arrivals occur one at a time
b. The distribution of the number of arrivals between t and t+s depends only on
the length of the interval s, not on the starting point t
c. The number of arrivals during nonoverlapping time intervals are independent
random variables
d. b&c
7. Average delay in a queuing system is expected to be 5.3 minutes, and “close
enough” between simulation and real system is 1 minute. A 95% C.I of expected
delay based on 10 replications from simulation is [2.5, 5.1]. Which conclusion/
action is recommended?
a. Need to refine the simulation model
b. Accept the simulation model as close enough to be considered valid
c. Additional simulation replications are necessary to shrink the confidence
interval until a conclusion can be reached.
d. No conclusion
8. Which of the following statement(s) is (are) TRUE about histogram?
a. It corresponds to the cdf
b. Its shape is independent with the number of interval
c. It can be plot for either continuous or discrete data
d. All of the statements are FALSE
9. What is (are) LIKELY TRUE concerning the below histogram

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 a. Need to recheck the data for outliers.
b. Divide data into 2 groups and find a theoretical distribution to fit each group
c. Use an empirical distribution to fit the histogram
d. A complicated distribution like Weibull may fit it.

10. Which Q-Q plot below may correspond with the histogram in question 9

(a) (b)

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 (c) (d)

11. Suppose that we want to simulate a quality testing process. Samples from each
batch are drawn out for testing. The probability of finding out a defective product
out of n samples most likely follow which distribution?
a. Binomial
b. Poisson
c. Normal
d. None of the above
12. Which distribution below is NOT appropriate to simulate arrival rate of customers
a. Poisson
b. Exponential
c. Normal
d. Empirical Discrete
13. A data set of 10 intervals is tested for Weibull distribution using Chi-square test.
What is the degree of freedom of the test?
a. 9
b. 8
c. 7
d. 6
14. Select the most appropriate statement “Input Analyzer (ARENA) helps to….”
a. input is .p file of simulations runs
b. see which distribution fits the data set best
c. see how change in inputs affect change in output
d. compare 2 different system designs
15. Fill the missing information in the following distribution summary table

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 Distribution Name Parameters Application context
Normal
Exponential
A patient must go through k steps to complete a
health screening
process. Each step has an exponential distribution of
service time
The number of random events occurring in a fixed
interval of time
Used in situations in which the exact form of the
distribution is not
known but estimates (or guesses) for the minimum,
maximum
most likely values are available.
The number of nonconforming products in a
sampling process
Uniform Distribution
Weibull Distribution

1. Records pertaining to the monthly number of job-related injuries for the past
100 months were as follows:

Injuries per month 0 1 2 3 4 5

Frequency of occurrence 25 47 15 5 3 5

Apply the chi-square test to these data to test the hypothesis that the
distribution is Poisson with mean 1. Use level of significance 0.05
2. Records pertaining to the number of defects per hour for the past 50 hours
were as follows:

0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1

1 1 1 0 1 2 1 0 1 3

1 1 0 1 2 0 2 2 1 1

0 4 4 1 1 1 1 1 3 2

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 0 3 5 0 1 1 0 0 1 1

a. Which goodness-of-fit test should you apply to test frequency of this data? Explain (10 pts)
b. Apply Chi-square test to these data to test the hypothesis that the distribution is Poisson with mean
1. Use level of significance 0.05 (10 pts)

3. The time required for the transmission of a message (in milliseconds) is

sampled electronically at a communication center. The last 30 values in the
sample are as follows:

8.47 7.17 10.00 7.30 10.94

6.70 9.13 8.86 10.27 8.12
7.20 7.65 7.87 8.82 11.29
9.17 11.70 8.68 6.94 9.19
10.53 10.85 9.61 11.44 8.31
10.40 10.53 10.61 8.23 9.52

a. Construct a Quantile-Quantile Plot to justify the exponential distribution of the

data. 
b. Use the Chi-square test to test the hypothesis that data are exponential
distributed. Let the number of class intervals be k = 6. Use the level of
significance = 0.05.
4. The following table shows the ten-replication performances of two systems
which are considered for a factory’s operation system. 

Replicati
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
on
Average System 1
16.3 17.0 16.7 16.3
16.5
16.3 16.4 16.6 16.5 16.4
Setup 3 4 4 2 3 5 5 2 7
Time System 2 17.9 16.8 17
16.7 16.5 16.2 18.0 16.5
17
17.2
(minute) 1 3 3 7 8 2

Propose the better operation system for the factory by a statistical test with
α=0.05.

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 5. IE team in XYZ’s company decided to expand the initial validation effort
reported in their model of a production line. The validation bases on the
average number of WIP for each day. Then, they collected 10 sets of input
data, together with the average number of WIP for each set. The input data
were used to drive the simulation model for 10 runs, and model predictions of
average WIP were collected, with these results

i 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Zi 21.7 23 20.5 21 19.2 22.8 19.4 19.7 22.2 21.3

Yi 18 22 19 22.5 20.1 21.0 19.5 20.1 23.3 19.4

a. Develop and conduct a statistical test to evaluate whether the model output is
consistent with the system behavior. Use the level of significance 0.05
b. If it is important to detect a difference of 0.5 days, what sample size is needed to have a
power of 0.8 (level of significance 0.05).
c. If the sample size of model and system is not equal, which is the difference with the
statistical test you used in part (a)

6. The average service time required for a customer is approx. 30.7 minutes
which was recorded by quality control department during several years. The
output was collected from the simulation for four runs of 15 products each,
with these results: 

Replication
1 2 3
Value
30.0
1 30.89 30.45
2
2 30.03 30.8 30.24
30.7
3 30.07 30.30
5
30.0
4 30.67 30.24
6
5 30.91 30.5 30.37

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30.5
6 30.40 30.51
7
30.9
7 30.03 30.72
2
30.8
8 30.32 30.28
4
30.4
9 30.41 30.98
6
30.5
10 30.73 30.54
2
30.4
11 30.54 30.86
5
30.4
12 30.24 30.65
4
30.8
13 30.76 30.15
6
30.2
14 30.88 30.51
9
30.9
15 30.02 30.99
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a. Construct a statistical test to evaluate whether model output is consistent with

system behavior. Use the level of significance α = 0.05.
b. Determine that whether to accept the model as valid or to refine the model by
the confidence interval, given the “close enough” was ε = 0.2
c. How many replications needed to narrow the 95% confidence interval half-
width down 40%.
d. Determine the warm-up period with the moving average window w=1.
7. Below is the data summary for the average waiting time in system by
replications.

Replication 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Sample mean
32.4 29.5 30.5 33.3 30.3 30.6 31.9 29.9 29.8 30.8
(mins)

a. What is 95% confidence interval of the cycle time?

b. Suppose that the error allowed is 4 minutes with 95% confidence interval, estimate the required
total sample size

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 8. Average waiting times of 2 systems from simulation using CRN technique are
shown in the table below.

Replication 1 Replication 2 Replication 3 Replication 4 Replication 5 Replication 6 Replication 7

System 1 8.2 11.6 10.1 7.7 13.6 10.8 9.5

System 2 6.6 9.5 7.5 5.9 11.4 7 8.1

a. Use hypothesis testing (α =0.05 ¿to test the difference of average waiting time of the 2 systems

b. Conclude the difference of average waiting time of the 2 systems using 95% C.I.

c. Suppose that we want to validate the simulation model of system 1 and the actual waiting time
of the “real system” is 11 minutes. Use hypothesis testing with Alpha =0.05 to draw conclusions.

d. If the difference between the simulation result and the actual value is expected to be at least 3
minutes to be considered practically different, what is the power of the test in question a.

9. Table below shows different entity output performances. Use C.I testing for
validation, given the practical difference 𝟄, C.I., true mean 𝞵0 , compute the Best Case Error
(BCE), Worst Case Error (WCE) and draw conclusion (accept/ refine/ more replication) in the
table below:

𝟄 C.I. 𝞵0 BCE WCE Conclusion

5 35.3 41.6 36

5 34.5 40.4 36

1.5 4.2 6.8 2

1.5 1.5 5.5 2

1.5 1.7 3.2 2

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Answers/Works

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