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Predicting Forecasting
Volcanic Eruptions
Using Satellite Data
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This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY

Peyton Roden

Table of Contents
Abstract…………………………………………………………………………….3
Volcanic Eruptions Are Destructive…………………………………………3
Satellite Data Shows Promise in Forecasting Eruptions……………….4
History of Volcanic Eruption Predictions………………………………….4
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Current Advances in Volcanic Forecasts…………………………………..5

Volcanic Eruption Warning System………………………………………….6

Conclusions…………………………………………………………………………7
References…………………………………………………………………………..7

Table of Figures
Figure 1………………………………………………………………………………3
Figure 2………………………………………………………………………………4
Figure 3………………………………………………………………………………6

Abstract
Volcanoes are deadly, from the lava, magma, mudslides, and falling ash they have killed
hundreds of thousands of people throughout history. People have been studying volcanoes for
years now and we now know some warning signs of when they will erupt such as ground
deformation and earthquakes. However, it is very difficult to pinpoint exactly when eruptions
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will occur, but with more data and better tools, we are getting better at forecasting eruptions.
Recently satellite data has been combined with artificial intelligence and deep learning to try
and detect ground deformation around volcanoes. This data can further our understanding of
the warning signs of volcanic eruptions and help save lives.

Volcanic Eruptions Are Destructive

Volcán del Fuego shown in figure 1 is one of the most active volcanoes in Central America. This
volcano is a stratovolcano, eruptions from these volcanoes are explosive and cause pyroclastic
flows and mudslides/lahars that can engulf entire houses and villages in ash and mud (Fasola,
2018).
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Figure 1: Volcán del Fuego, a volcano in Guatemala that killed hundreds of people in 2018.
Volcán del Fuego erupted violently in 2018 sending pyroclastic flows that buried houses in ash
trapping and killing people inside. Over 100 people were killed by this sudden eruption. This
volcanic eruption was so deadly because the area around it is densely populated. This volcano
also has very little monitoring, only one seismograph for earthquakes and nothing for
measuring gas and ground deformation (Fasola, 2018). Figure 2 below shows the result of the
2018 eruption and how pyroclastic flows can bury houses and entire towns.

Figure 2: Village covered in ash from a pyroclastic flow after the 2018 Volcán del Fuego eruption
Source: The Guardian | 2018 (Lakhani, 2018).
There are 1,350 active volcanoes in the world and there are 161 potentially active volcanoes in
the United States. In 1985, 25,000 people were killed by a volcano in Colombia (“Which
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Volcanic Eruptions Were the Deadliest? | U.S. Geological Survey”, 2019). These examples show
that volcanic eruptions can be very deadly, but lives have been saved when warning signs like
earthquakes and ground deformation led to evacuations. In some areas, there is not a lot of
monitoring that goes on around active volcanoes, but with satellites, data about everywhere on
the surface of the earth is collected. This information can be helpful in forecasting volcanic
eruptions.

Satellite Data Shows Promise in Forecasting Eruptions

History of Volcanic Eruption Predictions
Many different techniques are used to try and predict volcanic eruptions. Before eruptions
occur, earthquakes usually occur in large numbers. Scientists detect these earthquakes with
seismographs. Scientists also try to measure the rise and fall of the ground around volcanoes to
determine how magma is moving underground. Volcanoes emit gases and these gases can be
analyzed to determine if an eruption may happen soon  (“Global Volcanism Program | How Do
Scientists Forecast Eruptions?”). Mount Pinatubo was the second-largest eruption of the 20th
century, but scientists’ prediction of the imminent eruption saved thousands of lives. Pinatubo
had not erupted in hundreds of years before this but in 1991 many small earthquakes occurred
in the area and smoke was seen from the top. No data had been collected on this volcano
before, so it was difficult for scientists to determine if an eruption was about to occur. They
used seismometers and observed the ground bulging and made the prediction that it would
erupt soon, so thousands of people were evacuated from the surrounding areas. A few days
after the evacuations, the volcano erupted and covered much of the island in a thick layer of
ash (Pappas, 2011).

Current Advances in Volcanic Forecasts

While volcanic eruptions can sometimes be predicted by scientists nearby using seismographs
and other tools, most volcanoes are not closely monitored and the people around them are at
risk from unexpected eruptions. However, new methods are being used to monitor volcanoes
from space. Satellites can take pictures of volcanoes every time they pass around the earth, and
ground movements can be determined to make predictions about when eruptions may occur.
Juliette Biggs, a volcanologist, is using satellite pictures and artificial intelligence to determine
distortions of the ground around volcanoes. Distortions in satellite pictures from atmospheric
water vapor can mimic ground distortion so machine learning is used to get a clearer picture of
what is happening on the ground. Surface deformation is strongly linked to eruptions and Biggs’
team sorted through 30,000 images of 900 volcanoes using machine learning algorithms. The
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machine learning algorithm gave out 100 that required the team to inspect and there were 39
cases of confirmed ground deformation from volcanoes (Syahbana et al., 2019).

Figure 3: An example
of the raw data used
by the trained neural
network, the images
on the left, and the
probability of ground
deformation, the
images on the right,
with increasing
probability of ground
deformation shown by
yellow color.
(Syahbana et al., 2019).Source: Syahbana et al
2019

As shown in Figure 3, the artificial intelligence (AI) model gives the probability of ground
deformation using the raw satellite data that it receives. This can be then examined by experts
to determine if that is truly what is occurring. Using AI, all the active volcanoes on earth can be
screened and experts can confirm areas of interest where they believe that ground deformation
is occurring (Syahbana et al., 2019).

Volcanic Eruption Warning System

Satellite data is a powerful tool for scientists to gather information from all the active volcanoes
on the planet. Machine learning combined with this data may be used to create a global alert
system to indicate regions where volcanic activity may occur and where on-the-ground
monitoring is not taking place. Volcanic activity is difficult to predict and ground deformation is
just one tool for the volcanologists to forecast eruptions. In regions where ground deformation
is confirmed to be happening by satellites, teams of scientists can be sent to monitor other
signs of volcanic activity. This system could save the lives of people living around volcanoes by
giving them enough time to evacuate.
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Conclusions
Forecasting volcanic eruptions has saved lives in the past but with more and better data our
forecasts are getting better and will save more lives in the future. Satellite data fed into AI has
shown promise in detecting ground deformation around active volcanoes which usually
precedes eruptions. An international system can be put into place where scientists can confirm
sites of ground deformation that have been marked by the artificial intelligence system.
Governments around the world can use this system as an early warning sign of volcanic activity
and send scientists with more sensors to regions where they know ground deformation is
occurring. This way evacuations can be carried out in time to save people’s lives.

References
Albino, F., Biggs, J. & Syahbana, D. K. Nature Commun. 10, 748 (2019).

Fasola, Shannon. “Disaster in Guatemala: Volcán de Fuego Erupts.” Science Over Everything,

14 June 2018, scienceovereverything.com/2018/06/14/volcan_de_fuego.

“Global Volcanism Program | How Do Scientists Forecast Eruptions?” Smithsonian Institution |

Global Volcanism Program, volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionforecast.

Accessed 15 June 2022.

Lakhani, Nina. “Guatemala Volcano: Rescuers Battle Boiling Ash to Recover Fuego’s Dead.”

The Guardian, 6 June 2018, www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/05/guatemala-fuego-

volcano-rescuers-battle-boiling-ash-dead.

Pappas, Stephanie. “Pinatubo: Why the Biggest Volcanic Eruption Wasn’t the Deadliest.”

Livescience.Com, 15 June 2011, www.livescience.com/14603-pinatubo-eruption-20-

anniversary.html.
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“Which Volcanic Eruptions Were the Deadliest? | U.S. Geological Survey.” USGS, 8 May 2019,

www.usgs.gov/faqs/which-volcanic-eruptions-were-deadliest.