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Machine learning expands to help predict and characterize

earthquakes
Date: March 1, 2019

Source: Seismological Society of America

Summary: Researchers describe how they are using machine learning methods to hone predictions of
seismic activity, identify earthquake centers, characterize different types of seismic waves and
distinguish seismic activity from other kinds of ground 'noise.'

FULL STORY

With a growing wealth of seismic data and computing power at their disposal,
seismologists are increasingly turning to a discipline called machine learning to better
understand and predict complicated patterns in earthquake activity.

In a focus section published in the journal Seismological Research Letters, researchers describe how they are
using machine learning methods to hone predictions of seismic activity, identify earthquake centers,
characterize different types of seismic waves and distinguish seismic activity from other kinds of ground
"noise."

Machine learning refers to a set of algorithms and models that allow computers to identify and extract patterns
of information from large data sets. Machine learning methods often discover these patterns from the data
themselves, without reference to the real-world, physical mechanisms represented by the data. The methods
have been used successfully on problems such as digital image and speech recognition, among other
applications.

More seismologists are using the methods, driven by "the increasing size of seismic data sets, improvements
in computational power, new algorithms and architecture and the availability of easy-to-use open source
machine learning frameworks," write focus section editors Karianne Bergen of Harvard University, Ting Cheng
of Los Alamos National Laboratory, and Zefeng Li of Caltech.

Several researchers are using a class of machine learning methods called deep neural networks, which can
learn the complex relationships between massive amounts of input data and their predicted output. For
instance, Farid Khosravikia and colleagues at the University of Texas, Austin show how one kind of deep
neural network can be used to develop ground motion models for natural and induced earthquakes in
Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas. The unusual nature of the growing number of earthquakes caused by
petroleum wastewater disposal in the region make it essential to predict ground motion for future earthquakes
and to possibly mitigate their impact.

Machine learning techniques could be used increasingly in the near future to preserve analog records of past
earthquakes. As the media on which these data are recorded gradually degrades, seismologists are in a race
against time to protect these valuable records. Machine learning methods that can identify and categorize
images can be used to capture these data in a cost-effective manner, according to Kaiwen Wang of Stanford
University and colleagues, who tested the possibilities on analog seismograph film from the U.S. Geological
Survey's Rangely earthquake control experiment.
Machine learning methods also are already in place in applications such as MyShake, to harvest and analyze
data from the crowdsourced global smartphone seismic network, according to Qingkai Kong of the University
of California, Berkeley and colleagues.

Other researchers are using machine learning algorithms to sift through seismic data to better identify
earthquake aftershocks, volcanic seismic activity and to monitor the tectonic tremor that marks deformation at
plate boundaries where megathrust earthquakes might occur. Some studies use machine learning techniques
to locate earthquake origins and to distinguish small earthquakes from other seismic "noise" in the
environment.

Story Source:

Materials provided by Seismological Society of America. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.

Journal Reference:

1. Karianne J. Bergen, Ting Chen, Zefeng Li. Preface to the Focus Section on Machine Learning in
Seismology. Seismological Research Letters, 2019; 90 (2A): 477 DOI: 10.1785/0220190018

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Seismological Society of America. "Machine learning expands to help predict and characterize earthquakes."
ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 1 March 2019. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/03/190301123247.htm>.

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