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    Inferences

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    Mohad

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    Fy 2 35 Inference Exercises Sometimes it seems surprising that science functions at al. n 2005, medical science was shaken by a parer with the provocative title “Why most pblished research Findings ae false.” Written by Jobn Foanaidis, a professor of medicine at Stanford University, ieign’t actually show that any partcviae result was \srong. Instvad, itshowed tha the statistics af reported pesitive Findings was not consistent with hows often one should especr tn find thera, As leunnidlis concluded more fecently. “many gublished research findings ate false or ‘exaggerutod, ardan estimated 85 percent of research resources are wasted.” Ws likely thatsome researchers are consciously ‘cherry-piching data to get ticir work published ‘Aad some of the problems surely tie wit journal publication policies. But the problems of false findings often begin with researchers unwittingly footing themselves: they fll prey lo cognitive bases, common ‘modes of thinking tht lure us toward wrong but ‘convenient or attractive conclusions. “Seeing the reproducibility rates in psychology and other empirical science, we can safely say that someting is not working ‘out the way it should,” says Susann Fiedler, behas ora «economist at the Max Planck Institue for Research on Collective Goods in Bonn, Germany. “Cognitive biases might be one reason for tht.” Psychologist Brian Nosek of the University of Virginia says thatthe most common and problematic bias in science is “motivated reasoning”: We interpret ‘observations (0 fita particular idea, Psychovosists have shown that “most of our reasoning is in fact rationalization,” he says. fn other words, we have already ade the decision about what to-do orto think. and our “explanation” of our reasoning is really a jestfieation for doing what we wanted 10 do—or ta believe—anyway at . eand skeptical than everyday thought—but how much is it, really? Scicine is uf ea ‘The passage suggests that researchers ae likely to ‘exaggerate theic findings primarily because A) they are driven by intense competition for funding 1B) they do not take the time to check their data ©) they want to gain approval from their seperions, : ) they unconsciously persuade themselves i thal their results are accurate i BLT eee | ‘Which fines best support the answer to the previous question? A) Lines 7-9 ¢“Instead...them") B) Lines 13-14 (1's. data) ©) Lines 15-16 (“And...policies") D) Lines 29-30 (“We...idea”} | Bieter: ‘An unstated assumption ofthe passage is that ‘A)_ most data falsification cocars unintentionally B)_ scientific findings today are less trustworthy than those made in the past. ©) science is fundamentally irrational pursuit | 1D) in comparison to other people, scientists ‘are more likely to have cognitive biases. 5 so a5 Te following passage Is adaptec from Jane Austen, Northanger Abbey originally pubished in 1817 [No one who had ever seen Catherine Morland in her infancy would have supposed her born to be an heroine. Her situation in life the character of her Father ‘and mother, her own person and disposition, were all. equally against her. Her Father was a clergyman, without being neglected, or poor, and avery respectable man, though his name was Richard ~and ie had never been handsome. He had a considerable independence besides tnvo good livings-—and he was not in the least addicted to locking up his daughters. Her mother was a woman Of useful plain sense, with a good temper, and, what is ‘more remarkable, with a good constitution. She had three sons fefore Catherine w2s bon; and instead uf dying in bringing the later into the world, as anybody ‘might expect, she stil lived on~Lived io have six children more-to sce them growing up around her, ‘and to enjoy excellent health herself. A family of 100 chikdcen will be always called a fine family, wheve there are heads and arms and legs esough forthe number; but the Mortands had litle other right to the word, For they were in general very plan, and Catherine, For many years of her life, as plai as any. She bad a thin awkward figure, a sallow skin without colour, dark unk hair, and strong features—so much for her person; and 25 wot less unpropitious for herosm seemed her mind. 0 38 o 45 She was fond ofall boy’s plays, and greatly preferred cricket not merely to dolls, bu to the more heroic ‘enjoyments of infancy, nursing a dormouse, feeding & ‘canary-bird, or watering a rose-bush. Indeed she tad ro taste fora garden; and if she gathered Mowers tall, it was chiefly forthe pleasure of mischief—at least so it was conjectured from her always preferring those ‘which she was Forbidden to take. Such were her propensities —her abilities were quite as extraordinary ‘She never could learn or understand anything before ‘he was aught; and sometimes not even then, for she was often inattentive, and occasionally stupid. ‘er mother was three months in teaching her only to repeat the "Beggar's Petition”; and afterall, her next sister, Sally, could say itbetter than she did [Not that Catherine was always stupid:—by no means; she learnt the fable of “The Eare and Many Friends” as ‘quickly as any girl in England. Her mother wished her to feam music; and Catherine was sure se should like it for she was very fond of inkling the keys of the old forlom spinner; so, at cight years old she began. She learnt a year, and could not bear it; and Mrs. Morland, ‘ho did not insist on her daughters being accomplished 174 in spite of incapacity oF distaste, allowed her to feave 50 off. The day which dismissed the music-master was fone ofthe happiest of Catherine's tife. Her taste for ‘drawing was not superior; though vshencver she could Shuai the outside ofa Heller from her mother er seize lupon any ether odd piece of paper, she did what she 455 could in that way, by drawing houses and tees, ens ‘and chickens, all very much fike one another. Writing fand accounts she was taught by her fathers Frenchy by her mother her proficiency in either was not remarkable, and she shirked her Fessous in ott 60 whenever she could. Wit u strange, unaccountable ‘character!-—for with all shese symptoms of prof'igacy atten years old, she had neither a bad heart nor bad femiper, was seldom stubborn, scarcely ever {quarrelsome, and very Kind tothe ite ones, with «65 few interruptions of (yranny: she was moreover noisy and wild, hated confinement and cleanliness, and Toved nothing so well in the world as rolling down the green slope al the back of the house. ‘An unstated assumption in the narrator's ‘description of Catherine is that a hercine is typically A) bold and daring, 1B) brilliant and beautiful C) wild and rebellions. 1D) independent and carcfrce. “The narrator suggests that Catherine's mother responded to her daughter's imperfections swith A) frequent irritation. 1B) general indifference. ©) easy indulgence. D) utter perplexity. Which tines best suppor the answer tothe previous question? AD Lines £3.45 and, .on) c 1) Lines 20-21 ¢*for...plain”) C) Lines 38-40 *Her..did”) D) Line 47-50 ("and..off") EERE "he narrator suggests implies that Catherine was strongly motivated 1o do things that | A) were unusually dificult, 3B) were taugnt by her parents ©) were not geemitied D) her siblings could not do. MSs Which fines best support the answer tothe previous question? A) Lines 26-27 (-She...dolts”) 1B), Lines 30-33 Cand. .take") Dy. Lines 43-4 (Her...music”) ©) Line 5456 (she... another") ~ hee ‘The narrator's references to a dormouse, cunary- bird, and mse tush (lines 28-29) most strongly suggest that Carine ome A) could behave ina eruel manner. i By pretcrned w play alas than with o children, ©) rejected a ange of conventionally Feminine activities, D) recognized her exceptional behavior. 175 3. The following passage is adapted from Wiebke Brauer, “The Miracle of Space,"@ 2014 by Smart Magazine. Imagine a world where you share the availble space with others: without signs, sidewalks. or bicyole Janes. A vision otherwise known as shared space — ‘and one that becomes more and more eelevant with ‘the ceowding of aur cities, While this might sound like urban science fiction or, poss bly, impending chaos mixed with survival of the ftest. this particular ‘concept isthe declared dreant of many rac planners. ‘Shared space means streets freed of signs and 10 signals; steels solely governed by right of way, leaving road users fo their own devices, In ofr to restructure jublie space, it removes all saperfiuous interventions ‘and contradictory guidelines. Many countries are curently in the process of installing ~ or atleast 15 discussing ~ such Tawless" areas: Germany and the Netherlands, Denmark and the UK, Switzerland and the USA, but also Australia and New Zealand ‘One could argue that shared spaces have besa around fora tong time, simply under different terms 20 and titles. Back in the 1970s, for example, residents ‘enjoyed mixed traffic areas, vafic calming, and play sreets. And yet, these were not quite the same: ‘Shared space involves a new and radical push for equal ‘igh ofall roa users, pedestrian and otherwise. And while it was British urban designer Ben Hamilton Baillie who coined the actual term, the concept itselE ‘was developed in the mid-1990s under former Dutch traffic manager Hans Mondenmaa. Shovtly before his

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