Time Series

Analysis of Time Series

It has 4 types of different things
1.Secular Trend
2.Linear Trend
3. Seasonal Trend
4.Cyclical Trend
5.Irregular Trend.

1.Calculate the Linear Trend for the following data

Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Sales in 42 50 58 55 65
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a. Method of Semi averages
42+50+58/3=50
58+55+65/3=59.33
b. Method of moving averages

Years Sales 3 years total 3 years avg

2012 22
2013 18 64 21.33
2014 24 78 26
2015 36 102 34
2016 42 128 42.67
2017 50 150 50
2018 58 163 54.33
2019 55 178 59.33
2020 65
 Years Sales 4 years 4 years Centered
total avg
2012 22
2013 18 100 25 12.5
2014 24 120 30 15
2015 36 152 38 19
2016 42 186 46.50 23.25
2017 50 205 51.25 25.63
2018 58 228 57 28.50
2019 55
2020 65

Method of Least Square

x 15 20 25 30 35

Solution
X ̅̅̅
x=(x-𝑥) x=(x-30)2
15 100 225
20 25 100
25 0 25
30 25 0
35 100 25
X=125

𝑥̅ =X/N 125/5 =25

Equation

1. ∑Y=Na+b∑x
2.
∑XY=a∑x+b∑x2
 1. Calculations of the linear trend based on the method least
squares. The straight line trend is calculated Y=a+bx
Since, we compute it will be written Yc=a+bx.

To calculate the variable A and B we use the two normal

equations ∑Y=Na+b∑x
∑XY=a∑x+b∑x2

1.
Years 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Production 20 35 28 56 42 70 63

Solution

Year Production X=year- X2 XY Yc

mid year
2014 21 -3 9 -63 22.50
2015 35 -2 4 -70 30.00
2016 28 -1 1 -28 37.50
2017 56 0 0 0 45.00
2018 42 1 1 2 52.50
2019 70 2 4 140 60.00
2020 63 3 9 189 67.50
N=7 ∑Y=315 ∑x=0 ∑x2=28 ∑xy=210 ∑Yc=315

∑Y=Na+b∑x ∑XY=a∑x+b∑x2
315=7(a)+b(0) 210=a(0)+b(28)
315=7a 210=b(28)
a=315/7 b=210/28
a=45. b=7.50
 2014 2015 2016 2017
Yc=a+bx. Yc=a+bx. Yc=a+bx. Yc=a+bx.
=45+7.50(-3) =45+7.50(-2) =45+7.50(-1) =45+7.50(0)
=22.50 =30 =37.50 =45.00
2018 2019 2020
Yc=a+bx. Yc=a+bx. Yc=a+bx.
=45+7.50(1) =45+7.50(2) =45+7.50(3)
=52.50 =60.00 =67.50

2.
Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Production 24 16 32 40 56 48 40 72

Solution
Year Production X=year- X2 XY Yc
mid year
2013 24 -3.5 12.25 -84 19.33
2014 16 -2.5 6.25 -40 25.52
2015 32 -1.5 2.25 -48 31.71
2016 40 -0.5 0.25 -20 37.90
2017 56 0.5 0.25 28 44.09
2018 48 1.5 2.25 72 50.29
2019 40 2.5 6.25 100 56.48
2020 72 2.5 12.25 252 62.67
N=8 ∑Y=328 ∑x=0 ∑x2=42 ∑xy=260 ∑Yc=328

Solution

∑Y=Na+b∑x ∑XY=a∑x+b∑x2
∑Y=Na 260=b(42)
328=8a b=260/42
a=328/8 b=6.19
a=41
 2013 2014 2015 2016
Yc=a+bx. Yc=a+bx. Yc=a+bx. Yc=a+bx.
=41+6.19(-3.5) =41+6.19(-2.5) =41+6.19(-1.5) =41+6.19(-0.5)
=19.33 =25.52 =31.71 37.90
2017 2018 2019 2020
Yc=a+bx. Yc=a+bx. Yc=a+bx. Yc=a+bx.
=41+6.19(0.5) =41+6.19(1.5) =41+6.19(2.5) =41+6.19(3.5)
=44.09 =50.29 =56.48 =62.67