DISTRIBUSI PROBABILITAS

DOSEN PENGAMPU
VICKKY ANGGARA ILHAM

REKAYASA HIDROLOGI

Distribusi probabilitas yang sering
digunakan, yaitu:
• Distribusi gumbel
• Distribusi normal
• Distribusi log normal
• Distribusi log pearson type lll.
Penentuan jenis distribusi dengan mencocokkan
parameter data tersebut dengan syarat masing-masing
jenis distribusi seperti pada Tabel
Persyaratan parameter statistik suatu distribusi
No. Jenis Sebaran Syarat
1 Normal
2 Log Normal
3 Gumbel I
4 Log Pearson III Selain dari nilai di atas
Koefisien Kemencengan (Cs) Standar Deviasi (S) Koefisien Kurtosis (Ck)
𝑛 σ𝑖𝑖=1 𝑋𝑖 − 𝑋 σ𝑛𝑖=1 𝑋𝑖 − 𝑋 𝑛 σ𝑖𝑖=1 𝑋𝑖 − 𝑋
= 𝑆= =
𝑛− 𝑛−2 𝑆 𝑛− 𝑛− 𝑛−2 𝑛− 𝑆

Nilai Rata-Rata dari X

Koefisien Variasi (Cv)

𝑆 σ𝑛𝑖=1 𝑋𝑖
= 𝑋=
𝑋 𝑛
 LANGKAH PERHITUNGAN

Rekapitulasi data curah hujan maximum bulanan

Tahun January February March April Mei June July August sep Oki Nov Des Max Rata-rata
2010 58,00 48,00 31,00 27,00 56,00 74,00 38,00 78,00 31,00 24,00 16,00 101,00 101,00 52,54
2011 41,00 66,00 156,00 28,00 38,00 127,00 25,00 9,00 18,00 33,00 41,00 51,00 156,00 60,69
2012 31,00 40,00 59,00 36,00 90,00 111,00 10,00 2,00 2,00 32,00 16,00 43,00 111,00 44,85
2013 48,00 85,00 55,00 31,00 156,00 40,00 40,00 2,00 2,00 7,00 28,00 56,00 156,00 54,31
2014 53,00 26,10 46,50 92,30 67,60 89,00 3,60 9,10 1,20 1,30 26,70 191,30 191,30 61,46
2015 39,20 97,40 37,30 77,70 68,20 1,20 1,20 2,00 1,00 40,00 40,00 10,10 97,40 39,44
2016 24,50 71,80 32,10 64,00 21,40 44,60 127,30 6,00 26,60 70,50 27,50 39,00 127,30 52,51
2017 59,90 39,10 72,00 69,70 57,70 116,10 44,00 7,90 53,50 29,10 43,00 78,30 116,10 60,49
2018 67,60 51,80 70,90 36,70 31,10 22,60 22,60 3,20 4,30 4,50 14,30 64,90 70,90 35,80
2019 36,20 23,90 59,70 34,60 23,90 10,40 62,50 0,20 0,30 5,00 6,40 57,70 62,50 29,48
 LANGKAH PERHITUNGAN

Rekapitulasi data Temperatur Rata-Rata Bulanan (t), ºC

Tahun JAN. PEB. MARET APRIL MEI JUNI JULI AGUST. SEPT. OKT. NOP. DES.
2010 26,200 26,082 26,297 26,067 26,081 25,343 24,719 24,777 25,330 26,413 27,017 26,852
2011 26,271 26,161 26,329 26,210 25,639 25,113 24,861 24,435 25,213 26,700 27,480 26,981
2012 26,971 26,593 26,342 26,793 26,381 26,083 24,555 25,277 25,920 27,145 27,607 26,390
2013 26,855 26,479 26,342 26,360 25,894 25,607 25,281 24,535 24,817 26,074 16,927 25,329
2014 26,600 25,879 24,274 24,263 23,094 24,917 25,019 24,297 22,987 25,039 27,967 27,823
2015 27,384 25,661 27,052 26,787 27,116 26,163 24,939 23,916 26,793 27,026 26,897 21,961
2016 26,274 25,804 26,584 22,917 22,419 24,307 21,900 24,539 25,883 27,465 26,747 27,484
2017 26,694 26,739 26,494 26,390 24,097 24,487 25,039 25,684 76,367 76,516 27,527 27,581
2018 26,581 26,118 26,632 26,427 26,287 25,470 24,468 24,713 24,790 25,668 27,753 27,748
2019 29,043 27,467 28,713 27,407 28,620 27,245 26,803 27,157 14,655 28,903 28,110 28,853
Jumlah 268,87 262,98 265,06 259,62 255,63 254,73 247,58 249,33 292,76 316,95 264,03 267,00
Rata-rata 26,887 26,298 26,506 25,962 25,563 25,473 24,758 24,933 29,276 31,695 26,403 26,700
 LANGKAH PERHITUNGAN

Rekapitulasi data Kecepatan Angin Rata-Rata Bulanan (U), m/s

Tahun JAN. PEB. MARET APRIL MEI JUNI JULI AGUST. SEPT. OKT. NOP. DES.
2010 0,000 0,000 1,194 0,000 0,000 0,000 1,290 1,516 1,333 1,194 0,000 0,000
2011 2,935 3,036 3,613 2,633 2,290 2,933 3,194 3,516 3,433 3,677 3,867 3,613
2012 3,581 3,786 2,806 2,767 2,839 2,567 2,419 3,000 3,033 3,516 3,633 2,968
2013 3,548 2,893 2,806 2,567 2,258 2,367 2,677 2,839 2,900 3,581 3,600 3,548
2014 2,742 2,964 3,065 3,396 2,677 2,667 2,677 2,871 2,700 3,484 3,533 3,161
2015 2,806 2,536 3,129 2,333 2,290 2,200 2,452 2,516 2,633 2,645 2,300 2,226
2016 2,903 2,714 2,677 2,400 2,097 1,567 1,516 2,774 3,400 3,806 3,200 3,097
2017 3,032 3,250 3,323 2,867 2,387 2,267 2,645 2,839 3,100 3,097 3,233 2,839
2018 2,774 2,714 2,645 2,433 2,387 2,533 2,742 3,129 3,067 3,355 3,433 2,968
2019 2,967 2,704 2,867 2,586 2,567 2,379 2,633 2,900 1,621 3,133 3,000 2,733
Jumlah 18,516 17,929 19,290 16,096 14,452 14,300 16,226 19,032 19,433 21,903 20,133 18,613
Rata-rata 2,729 2,660 2,812 2,398 2,179 2,148 2,425 2,790 2,722 3,149 2,980 2,715
 LANGKAH PERHITUNGAN

Rekapitulasi data Kelembaban Udara Rata-Rata Bulanan (RH), %

Tahun JAN. PEB. MARET APRIL MEI JUNI JULI AGUST. SEPT. OKT. NOP. DES.
2010 81,00 82,25 82,35 83,60 84,10 82,03 82,87 78,10 79,77 80,87 78,60 79,71
2011 82,19 81,29 81,26 81,23 82,77 81,97 80,06 78,52 76,63 76,87 77,13 79,45
2012 80,03 81,29 82,35 81,50 83,39 84,43 86,29 80,32 78,30 75,71 74,60 82,10
2013 77,45 80,18 82,35 83,03 84,84 85,07 81,35 79,23 76,17 73,84 46,70 75,42
2014 79,58 83,57 27,71 - - - 80,77 79,32 72,63 75,23 76,07 79,52
2015 80,58 79,75 82,77 82,80 83,06 83,23 80,00 74,94 78,80 79,87 75,77 64,97
2016 76,81 78,29 82,35 72,30 75,13 85,13 74,42 79,00 83,17 80,10 76,10 79,10
2017 82,19 80,00 82,87 82,73 82,84 81,20 82,42 78,35 76,37 76,52 77,93 78,87
2018 83,16 83,04 83,32 85,13 86,39 84,97 83,90 79,87 78,93 77,42 78,33 80,35
2019 88,43 87,63 90,10 87,79 91,23 92,45 91,83 86,70 47,45 83,67 83,34 87,43
Jumlah 811,43 817,27 777,45 740,13 753,75 760,48 823,93 794,35 748,21 780,09 744,58 786,92
Rata-rata 81,14 81,73 77,75 74,01 75,37 76,05 82,39 79,43 74,82 78,01 74,46 78,69
 LANGKAH PERHITUNGAN
Rekapitulasi data lamanya Penyinaran Matahari Rata-Rata (n/N), %

Tahun JAN. PEB. MARET APRIL MEI JUNI JULI AGUST. SEPT. OKT. NOP. DES.
2010 14,5% 15,6% 16,3% 14,2% 13,3% 17,2% 19,1% 22,6% 24,1% 27,7% 25,0% 13,1%
2011 16,5% 18,3% 14,1% 21,1% 16,6% 15,4% 17,8% 23,3% 25,4% 29,9% 27,1% 16,9%
2012 12,96% 0,18% 0,22% 0,18% 0,16% 0,17% 0,08% 0,28% 0,36% 0,36% 0,39% 0,11%
2013 0,11% 0,13% 0,22% 0,22% 0,11% 0,11% 0,19% 0,27% 0,38% 0,39% 10,71% 16,40%
2014 16,32% 20,43% 6,37% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 27,37% 26,85% 29,40% 33,70% 31,49% 21,59%
2015 21,41% 11,76% 14,84% 13,90% 17,98% 16,10% 17,15% 24,31% 25,69% 20,31% 22,44% 12,96%
2016 15,86% 16,38% 13,64% 15,82% 7,85% 6,19% 9,48% 15,01% 18,93% 26,79% 23,29% 16,88%
2017 16,85% 20,55% 16,49% 18,53% 11,87% 15,38% 17,26% 24,66% 29,64% 34,07% 28,42% 18,32%
2018 15,69% 15,85% 15,90% 14,64% 15,85% 14,04% 22,10% 32,12% 33,25% 34,99% 36,56% 21,64%
2019 19,43% 14,74% 19,21% 20,57% 17,94% 12,95% 14,69% 27,47% 10,20% 32,33% 27,90% 15,57%
Jumlah 149,56% 133,95% 117,29% 119,19% 101,60% 97,56% 145,23% 196,92% 197,34% 240,53% 233,24% 153,39%
Rata-rata 14,96% 13,39% 11,73% 11,92% 10,16% 9,76% 14,52% 19,69% 19,73% 24,05% 23,32% 15,34%
 Uji Parameter Statistik No. Tahun CH (mm) X- (X - 2
(X - 3
(X - 4

1 2010 52,538 3,382 11,435 38,667 130,755

2 2011 60,69 11,54 133,07 1534,957 17706,320
3 2012 44,85 -4,31 18,58 -80,106 345,318
𝑛 σ𝑖𝑖=1 𝑋𝑖 − 𝑋
= 4 2013 54,31 5,15 26,53 136,652 703,863
𝑛− 𝑛−2 𝑆
5 2014 61,46 12,30 151,40 1862,963 22923,038
6 2015 39,44 -9,72 94,45 -917,894 8920,518
𝑛 σ𝑖𝑖=1
𝑋𝑖 − 𝑋
= 7 2016 52,51 3,35 11,23 37,621 126,060
𝑛− 𝑛−2 𝑛− 𝑆
8 2017 60,49 11,34 128,49 1456,494 16509,923
σ𝑛𝑖=1 𝑋𝑖 9 2018 35,80 -13,36 178,41 -2382,974 31829,198
𝑋=
𝑛 10 2019 29,48 -19,67 387,00 -7613,177 149768,760
𝑆
= Jumlah 491,57 442,41 195729 86592764 38309704430
𝑋
Rata-rata X = 49,157
Standar Deviasi S = 147,471
σ𝑛𝑖=1 𝑋𝑖 − 𝑋
𝑆= Koefisien Kemencengan Cs = 3,750
𝑛−
Koefisien Kurtosis Ck = 16,071
Koefisien Variasi Cv = 3,000
 DISTRIBUSI X- 2
No. Tahun CH (X -
PROBABILITAS
1 2010 52,538 3,382 11,435
NORMAL
2 2011 60,692 11,535 133,065
3 2012 44,846 -4,311 18,583
𝑋𝑇 =𝑋ത 𝐾𝑇 S 4 2013 54,308 5,151 26,530
𝑋 𝑇=𝑋 𝐾𝑇 S
𝑋𝑇 = Hujan rencana dengan periode ulang T tahun
5 2014 61,462 12,305 151,404
𝑋ത = Nilai rata-rata dari data hujan (X) mm. 6 2015 39,438 -9,718 94,448
S = Standar deviasi dari data hujan (X) mm 7 2016 52,508 3,351 11,228
𝐾𝑇 = Faktor Frekuensi, nilainya bergantung dari T
8 2017 60,492 11,335 128,491
9 2018 35,800 -13,357 178,407
10 2019 29,485 -19,672 387,000
Jumlah 1140,591
Nilai rata-rata data hujan = 49,157
Standar deviasi = 11,258
 DISTRIBUSI PROBABILITAS NORMAL

Perhitungan hujan rencana

Tabel Variabel Reduksi Gauss

Periode Ulang
T (Tahun) 𝑋ത KT S XT (mm)

2 49,157 0,00 11,258 49,16

5 49,157 0,84 11,258 58,61
10 49,157 1,28 11,258 63,57
20 49,157 1,64 11,258 67,62
25 49,157 1,71 11,258 68,39
50 49,157 2,05 11,258 72,23
100 49,157 2,33 11,258 75,39
 DISTRIBUSI PROBABILITAS GUMBEL
Tabel Nilai Reduced Standard Deviation
(Sn) dan Nilai Reduced Man (Yn)

𝑋𝑇 = 𝑋 𝑆×𝐾
− 𝑛
𝐾= Periode
𝑆𝑛
= −𝐿𝑛 − 𝐿𝑛
𝑇− Ulang T 𝑋ത S Sn Yt Yn K XT (mm)
𝑇 (Tahun)
2 49,157 11,258 0,9497 0,367 0,4952 -0,13550 47,631
𝑋𝑇 = hujan rencana atau debit dengan periode ulang T.
𝑋 = nilai rata-rata dari data hujan (X). 5 49,157 11,258 0,9497 1,500 0,4952 1,05796 61,067
𝑆 = standar deviasi dari data hujan (X).
10 49,157 11,258 0,9497 2,250 0,4952 1,84813 69,962
𝐾 = Faktor Frekuensi Gumbel 20 49,157 11,258 0,9497 2,970 0,4952 2,60608 78,495
25 49,157 11,258 0,9497 3,199 0,4952 2,84651 81,202
= reduced variate
𝑆𝑛 = Reduced Standard deviasi 50 49,157 11,258 0,9497 3,902 0,4952 3,58717 89,540
𝑛= Reduces Mean 100 49,157 11,258 0,9497 4,600 0,4952 4,32236 97,816
Perhitungan hujan rencana
 UJI DISTRIBUSI LOG NORMAL
Perhitungan parameter statistik
( log X )
2
No. Tahun Xi Log Xi log 𝑋 i − log X
𝐿𝑜𝑔𝑋𝑇 = 𝐿𝑜𝑔𝑋 𝐾𝑇 × 𝑆 log 𝑋 1 2010 52,538 1,720 0,225312 2,235518
2 2011 60,692 1,783 0,225312 2,426807
σ𝑛𝑖=1 log 𝑋𝑖
𝐿𝑜𝑔𝑋 = 3 2012 44,846 1,652 0,225312 2,034653
𝑛
0,5 4 2013 54,308 1,735 0,225312 2,278738
σ𝑛𝑖=1 log 𝑋 𝑖 − log 𝑋
𝑆 log 𝑋 = 5 2014 61,462 1,789 0,225312 2,443879
𝑛−
6 2015 39,438 1,596 0,225312 1,878565
7 2016 52,508 1,720 0,225312 2,234757
𝐿𝑜𝑔𝑋𝑇 8 2017 60,492 1,782 0,225312 2,422343
= nilai logaritmis hujan rencana periode ulang T.
𝐿𝑜𝑔𝑋 = nilai rata-rata dari log X 9 2018 35,800 1,554 0,225312 1,765100
𝑆 log 𝑋 = Deviasi Standar dari Log X
KT = Faktor Frekuensi, nilainya bergantung dari T
10 2019 29,485 1,470 0,225312 1,548240
Jumlah = 16,800 21,269
Rata-rata = 1,680
 UJI DISTRIBUSI LOG NORMAL

Tabel Variabel Reduksi Causs

Perhitungan hujan rencana

Periode Ulang Log X
T (Tahun) log 𝑋 S log X KT X (mm)
(mm)
2 1,6800 0,512 0 1,680 47,864
5 1,6800 0,512 0,84 2,110 128,957
10 1,6800 0,512 1,28 2,336 216,726
20 1,6800 0,512 1,64 2,520 331,423
25 1,6800 0,512 1,7083 2,555 359,251
50 1,6800 0,512 2,05 2,730 537,620
100 1,6800 0,512 2,33 2,874 748,089
 UJI DISTRIBUSI LOG PEARSON TIPE III
Perhitungan parameter statistik

log X t = log X + KT  S log X No. Tahun CH Log X Log X - Log (Log X - Log )2 (Log X - Log )3
1 2010 52,538 1,7205 0,040 0,002 0,000
2 2011 60,692 1,7831 0,103 0,011 0,001

 ( log X )
n n 2
 log X i i − log X 3 2012 44,846 1,6517 -0,028 0,001 0,000

log X = i =1
S log X = i =1 4 2013 54,308 1,7349 0,055 0,003 0,000
n n −1 5 2014 61,462 1,7886 0,109 0,012 0,001
6 2015 39,438 1,5959 -0,084 0,007 -0,001
7 2016 52,508 1,7202 0,040 0,002 0,000
log 𝑋 = Nilai logaritma hujan rencana dengan periode ulang T
8 2017 60,492 1,7817 0,102 0,010 0,001
log 𝑋 = nilai rata rata dari 9 2018 35,800 1,5539 -0,126 0,016 -0,002
10 2019 29,485 1,4696 -0,210 0,044 -0,009
S log X logX = Deviasi Standar log X
Jumlah = 16,800 mm
𝐾𝑇 = variabel standar, besarnya tergantung pada koefisien kemencengan (Cs atau
Rata - rata log 𝑋 = 1,6800 mm
SlogX G ) lihat tabel frekuensi K untuk Log pearson Type III
Standar Deviasi S = 0,109
 UJI DISTRIBUSI LOG PEARSON TIPE III
Tabel Faktor frekuensi K, untuk Distribusi
Log Pearson Type lll (C atau Cs positif)

Perhitungan hujan rencana

Periode
Ulang T Log (mm) KT S Log X Cs Log X (mm) X (mm)
(Tahun)
2 1,680 -0,017 0,109 -0,8791 1,678 47,660
5 1,680 0,836 0,109 -0,8791 1,771 59,048
10 1,680 1,292 0,109 -0,8791 1,821 66,213
20 1,680 1,6207 0,109 -0,8791 1,857 71,911
25 1,680 1,785 0,109 -0,8791 1,875 74,941
50 1,680 2,107 0,109 -0,8791 1,910 81,254
100 1,680 2,400 0,109 -0,8791 1,942 87,459
REKAPITULASI DISTRIBUSI PROBABILITAS

Periode Distribusi Probabilitas (mm)

Ulang T
Normal Log Normal Gumbel Log Pearson III
(tahun)
2 49,157 1,680 47,631 47,660
5 58,613 4,526 61,067 59,048
10 63,567 7,607 69,962 66,213
20 67,619 11,633 78,495 71,911
25 68,389 12,610 81,202 74,941
50 72,235 18,870 89,540 81,254
100 75,387 26,258 97,816 87,459
REKAPITULASI DISTRIBUSI PROBABILITAS
 Terima Kasih
VICKKY ANGGARA ILHAM REKAYASA HIDROLOGI