Create Random / Uncertain Variables in Excel:

For Monte Carlo Simulations

Create Random Variables based on:
1) Relative Frequency Distribution
2) Binomial Distribution
3) Uniform Distribution
4) Normal Distribution

Remember: Before we can create random variables,

we must have a good estimate of what the
Probability Distribution is for that variable.
Random Variable (Uncertain Assumed: Variable Distribution Based on
Value) Variable Type Historical Data
Historical Relative
Direct Labor Cost Per Unit DLC Discrete Frequency Distribution

Historical Relative Frequency Distrib

Direct Labor Cost Labor
Per Unit X Probability P(X)
If RAND() Function yields: 0 this is the cumulativ
$39 0.1 function will find.
$40 0.15 0.3
$41 0.2 0.25
$42 0.25

Probability P(X)
$43 0.15 0.2

$44 0.1 0.15

$45 0.05
0.1
Total 1
0.05

RAND() Function 0
$39 $40 $41
Direct
LOOKUP Function (Approximate
Lookup, always retrieving value
from last column in array.)

Randomly Created Value Based

on Specified Prob Distribution:

Historical Relative Frequency Distribution for Discrete Uncertain Variable, Direct Labor Cost Per Unit.
Distribution Based on Historical Data for Random Variable (Uncertain Value) = Direct Labor Cost Per Unit

Distribution Based on Historical Data for Random Variable (Uncertain Value) = Direct Labor Cost Per
Unit
0.3

0.25

0.2
Probability P(X)

0.15

0.1
 0.2

Probability P(X)
0.15

0.1

0.05

0
$39 $40 $41 $42 $43 $44 $45

Direct Labor Cost Per Unit X

 If RAND() for
Historical Relative Frequency Distribution Function
Discreteyields: 0 this
Uncertain is theDirect
Variable, cumulative
probability
Labor Cost Perfrom
Unit. 0 up to the x value of that the
LOOKUP function will find.
() Function yields: 0 this is the cumulative probability from 0 up to the x value of that the LOOKUP
will find. 0.1
0.3 0.15
0.25
0.2
0.25
0.2 0.15
0.15 0.1
0.05
0.1

0.05

0
$39 $40 $41 $42 $43 $44 $45
Direct Labor Cost Per Unit X

ost Per Unit

Cost Per
$45
Random Variable (Uncertain Assumed: Variable Distribution Based on
Value) Variable Type Historical Data
Historical Relative
Direct Labor Cost Per Unit DLC Discrete Frequency Distribution

Historical Relative Frequency Distrib

Direct Labor Cost Labor
Lookup Column Per Unit X Probability P(X)
0 $39 0.1 If RAND() Function yields: 0.0324 this is the cu
LOOKUP function will find.
0.1 $40 0.15
0.3
0.25 $41 0.2
0.25
0.45 $42 0.25

Probability P(X)
0.7 $43 0.15 0.2
0.85 $44 0.1 0.15
0.95 $45 0.05
0.1
Total 1
0.05

RAND() Function 0.032384926906405 =RAND() 0

$39 $40 $41
Direct
LOOKUP Function (Approximate
Lookup, always retrieving value
from last column in array.) 39 =LOOKUP(B14,A5:B11)

Randomly Created Value Based

on Specified Prob Distribution: 43 =LOOKUP(RAND(),A5:B11)

Historical Relative Frequency Distribution for Discrete Uncertain Variable, Direct Labor Cost Per Unit.
Distribution Based on Historical Data for Random Variable (Uncertain Value) = Direct Labor Cost Per Unit

Distribution Based on Historical Data for Random Variable (Uncertain Value) = Direct Labor Cost Per
Unit
0.3

0.25

0.2
Probability P(X)

0.15

0.1
 0.2

Probability P(X)
0.15

0.1

0.05

0
$39 $40 $41 $42 $43 $44 $45

Direct Labor Cost Per Unit X

 If RAND() for
Historical Relative Frequency Distribution Function
Discreteyields: 0.0324
Uncertain thisDirect
Variable, is the
cumulative
Labor Cost Perprobability
Unit. from 0 up to the x value of
39 that the LOOKUP function will find.
D() Function yields: 0.0324 this is the cumulative probability from 0 up to the x value of 39 that 0.1
the
UP function will find.
0.3

0.25

0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

0
$39 $40 $41 $42 $43 $44 $45
Direct Labor Cost Per Unit X

ost Per Unit

Cost Per
$45
Set/Static/Certain Variables Variable
Number who attend Seminars = Number of Trials = n
Success = New Customer New Customer
Probability of Success of getting new customer p
Binomial? Must pass 4 tests:
1) Fixed number of Trials = n Yes
2) Only 2 outcomes for each trial, either Success or Not Success Yes
3) Probability of success stays the same each time Yes
4) Each Trial is Independent (1 trial doesn't affect any other) Yes
Binomial Experiment, n = # Trials = 35 and p = Probability of Success = Get New Customer = 0.065

Random Variable (Uncertain Variable) Variable

Number of Successes (New Customers) in 35 Tries = X with p = 0.065 X
RAND() Function

BINOM.INV Function (Generates value based on inputted cumulative

probability value. Alpha = Cumulative Binomial Probability from 0 up to X)
Randomly Created Value Based on Specified Prob Distribution:

Number of Successes
(New Customers) in 35
Tries = X with p = 0.065
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
 9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
Value
35 All 4 Binominal Tests are met. n = 35 and p = 0.065.

If RAND() Function = 0 this is the cumulative probability from 0 up to the x value of .

0.065 0.3

0.25
Probability P(x) 0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34

Number of Successes (New Customers) in 35 Tries = X with p = 0.065

If RAND() Function = 0 this is the

Probability cumulative probability from 0 up
P(x) to the x value of . Chart Title:
0.0951494715 0.0951494715354395 All 4 Binominal Tests are met. n = 35 and p = 0.065.
0.23151342
0.2736067691
0.2092287058 All 4 Binominal Tests are met. n = 35 and p = 0.065
0.1163624888
0.0501540994 0.3

0.0174332431 0.25
0.0050208806
0.2
Probability P(x)

0.0012216581
0.15

0.1

0.05
 0.3

0.25

0.2

Probability P(x)
0.0002547843 0.15
4.605192E-05
7.27607E-06 0.1

1.011646E-06 0.05
1.244271E-07
0
1.359287E-08 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 2
1.322943E-09 Number of Successes (New Customers) in 35 Tries = X w
1.149616E-10
8.932215E-12
6.209561E-13
3.862407E-14
2.148076E-15
1.066654E-16
4.718789E-18
1.854162E-19
6.44495E-21
1.971396E-22
5.271113E-24
1.22147E-25
2.426144E-27
4.071162E-29
5.660439E-31
6.346878E-33
5.515335E-35
3.485627E-37
1.42539E-39
2.83118E-42
5 and p = 0.065.

are met. n = 35 and p = 0.065.

 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
w Customers) in 35 Tries = X with p = 0.065
Set/Static/Certain Variables Variable
Number who attend Seminars = Number of Trials = n
Success = New Customer New Customer
Probability of Success of getting new customer p
Binomial? Must pass 4 tests:
1) Fixed number of Trials = n Yes
2) Only 2 outcomes for each trial, either Success or Not Success Yes
3) Probability of success stays the same each time Yes
4) Each Trial is Independent (1 trial doesn't affect any other) Yes
Binomial Experiment, n = # Trials = 35 and p = Probability of Success = Get New Customer = 0.065

Random Variable (Uncertain Variable) Variable

Number of Successes (New Customers) in 35 Tries = X with p = 0.065 X
RAND() Function 0.680782233712029

BINOM.INV Function (Generates value based on inputted cumulative

probability value. Alpha = Cumulative Binomial Probability from 0 up to X) 3
Randomly Created Value Based on Specified Prob Distribution: 0

Number of Successes
(New Customers) in 35
Tries = X with p = 0.065
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
 9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
Value
35 All 4 Binominal Tests are met. n = 35 and p = 0.065.

If RAND() Function = 0.6808 this is the cumulative probability from 0 up to the x value of 3.
0.065 0.3

0.25
Probability P(x) 0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34

Number of Successes (New Customers) in 35 Tries = X with p = 0.065

=RAND()

=BINOM.INV(C2,C4,B15)
=BINOM.INV(C2,C4,RAND())

If RAND() Function = 0.6808 this

Probability is the cumulative probability
P(x) from 0 up to the x value of 3. Chart Title:
0.0951494715 0.0951494715354395 All 4 Binominal Tests are met. n = 35 and p = 0.065.
0.23151342 0.231513420046123
0.2736067691 0.273606769145418
0.2092287058 0.209228705817085 All 4 Binominal Tests are met. n = 35 and p = 0.065
0.1163624888
0.0501540994 0.3

0.0174332431 0.25
0.0050208806
0.2
Probability P(x)

0.0012216581
0.15

0.1

0.05
 0.3

0.25

0.2

Probability P(x)
0.0002547843 0.15
4.605192E-05
7.27607E-06 0.1

1.011646E-06 0.05
1.244271E-07
0
1.359287E-08 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 2
1.322943E-09 Number of Successes (New Customers) in 35 Tries = X w
1.149616E-10
8.932215E-12
6.209561E-13
3.862407E-14
2.148076E-15
1.066654E-16
4.718789E-18
1.854162E-19
6.44495E-21
1.971396E-22
5.271113E-24
1.22147E-25
2.426144E-27
4.071162E-29
5.660439E-31
6.346878E-33
5.515335E-35
3.485627E-37
1.42539E-39
2.83118E-42
5 and p = 0.065.

are met. n = 35 and p = 0.065.

 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
w Customers) in 35 Tries = X with p = 0.065
 Assumed: Variable
Random Variable (Uncertain Value) Variable Type
Material Cost Per Unit MC Continuous

Randomly Created Value Based on Specified

Prob Distribution:
Randomly Created Value Based on Specified
Prob Distribution:

Distribution Based on Historical Data for Random Variable (Unce

Cost ($)(Upper = Material Cost Per Unit

Relative Frequency (Estimated Probabil-

Limit)
80
85
90
95

ity)
100
105

80 85 90 95 10
Cost ($)(Upper Limit)

Material Cost Per Unit

$76.35
$77.31
$104.99
$84.85
$87.35
$81.60
$99.51
$85.81
$97.52
$91.19
$82.86
$76.90
$93.03
$96.04
$79.94
$85.77
$78.87
$75.55
 $93.17
$79.47
$90.19
$104.38
$92.95
$88.01
$97.27
$78.14
$91.90
$88.61
$89.07
$98.09
$95.14
$75.47
$94.74
$75.74
$76.82
$91.30
$103.60
$103.25
$92.27
$91.25
$87.92
$84.93
$82.09
$81.96
$83.91
$82.02
$82.44
$102.13
$86.20
$76.18
$86.87
$86.40
$104.22
$90.47
$84.66
$78.46
$80.35
$83.89
$99.97
$102.08
$94.51
$94.53
$91.05
 $87.91
$104.56
$91.50
$92.87
$82.81
$85.21
$101.96
$75.75
$104.44
$79.94
$76.53
$82.77
$82.84
$101.62
$82.58
$76.43
$97.74
$82.85
$86.10
$92.50
$87.46
$78.14
$79.96
$79.49
$78.58
$78.48
$102.79
$80.49
$90.94
$81.14
$90.89
$104.39
$98.24
$84.84
$85.97
$89.47
$87.97
$80.63
$103.85
$101.08
$76.48
$75.11
$100.48
$84.72
$76.58
 $86.30
$91.55
$95.74
$78.56
$103.51
$96.75
$92.78
$91.78
$100.43
$103.05
$88.12
$104.98
$89.90
$99.18
$100.60
$77.85
$80.92
$83.34
$86.11
$75.91
$81.99
$87.47
$93.39
$94.33
$78.17
$88.77
$81.12
$84.02
$88.84
$83.78
$86.49
$104.81
$79.42
$87.40
$101.67
$101.13
$80.10
$97.73
$91.22
$96.22
$84.63
$104.94
$91.16
$76.25
$103.70
 $94.95
$81.81
$75.71
$95.75
$101.10
$77.06
$83.93
$84.02
$78.67
$86.22
$80.70
$78.83
$76.46
$84.77
$95.45
$91.78
$80.64
$96.57
$79.39
$80.65
$78.78
$82.80
$81.62
$95.98
$86.32
$101.51
$80.71
$95.17
$100.87
$82.45
$80.14
$79.68
$90.56
$93.07
$77.35
$75.58
$93.99
$91.99
$81.17
$77.64
$102.53
$80.18
$97.83
$85.24
$96.36
 $80.15
$102.91
$93.19
$80.74
$89.17
$103.88
$75.97
$83.70
$88.37
$96.86
$89.32
$80.06
$101.74
$87.54
$99.37
$91.50
$84.94
$87.52
$75.78
$89.73
$82.70
$90.82
$97.30
$104.34
$77.90
$102.62
$90.62
$78.38
$95.36
$98.32
$84.94
$103.46
$98.60
$101.88
$84.64
$78.24
$96.22
$100.11
$75.96
$86.88
$96.96
$76.32
$87.35
$86.49
$75.79
$100.97
$103.92
$90.29
$91.79
$82.17
$86.71
$93.46
$78.12
$79.57
$75.39
$104.10
$82.93
$79.37
$89.79
$99.57
$103.00
$93.94
$83.81
$84.77
$102.70
$90.80
$77.15
$92.28
$93.78
$91.40
$96.81
$94.29
$84.11
$100.32
$77.73
$76.87
$95.83
$92.54
$98.81
$82.25
$104.21
$99.80
$93.76
$85.10
$98.31
$83.11
$95.48
$94.62
$77.60
$86.04
 $75.05
$86.96
$81.95
$97.33
$104.92
$93.61
$102.08
$91.83
$88.47
$75.89
$82.89
$97.26
$98.84
$85.24
$100.36
$92.36
$87.57
$90.60
$96.33
$80.11
$88.87
$90.57
$104.80
$96.34
$86.60
$94.76
$86.95
$101.05
$77.06
$78.71
$100.40
$90.31
$98.45
$102.29
$92.30
$84.81
$104.21
$76.56
$103.24
$82.73
$92.01
$75.64
$83.55
$101.05
$104.43
 $76.25
$104.80
$85.42
$85.23
$76.96
$103.89
$85.49
$77.04
$81.44
$100.26
$94.68
$86.65
$97.31
$77.52
$104.29
$88.25
$83.95
$83.34
$75.68
$97.57
$102.90
$94.79
$96.52
$98.63
$89.74
$90.05
$78.39
$102.01
$92.57
$94.72
$82.69
$75.77
$100.66
$98.63
$81.38
$80.60
$83.78
$81.76
$79.04
$75.04
$80.53
$81.79
$80.07
$92.45
$82.12
$104.46
$87.60
$76.32
$99.59
$85.05
$103.01
$76.14
$95.39
$103.37
$92.27
$75.94
$82.39
$79.02
$81.56
$96.49
$77.62
$79.28
$99.93
$97.93
$92.52
$93.19
$90.45
$82.80
$75.43
$91.21
$88.83
$93.14
$96.81
$104.91
$86.83
$101.23
$99.10
$103.06
$76.00
$83.42
$101.46
$82.80
$78.83
$85.81
$83.14
$85.37
$104.88
$86.49
$82.21
$91.38
 $83.53
$77.47
$94.33
$99.46
$91.51
$92.49
$96.38
$83.02
$83.32
$92.98
$84.85
$85.58
$76.20
$102.68
$89.59
$94.21
$75.76
$75.81
$76.87
$78.55
$101.57
$90.82
$84.03
$87.46
$101.61
$83.01
$84.45
$82.26
$100.93
$95.04
$81.18
$96.29
$81.72
$77.97
$98.83
$92.89
$88.91
$100.68
$100.12
$92.41
$98.21
$97.46
$96.14
$77.36
$98.15
 $82.46
$84.85
$101.10
$87.27
$83.76
$80.82
$98.18
$91.02
$101.27
$86.76
$96.03
$77.21
$91.44
$92.62
$80.54
$88.04
$95.16
$92.54
$93.16
$103.54
$84.44
$92.86
$99.78
$94.78
$77.28
$93.57
$101.30
$92.17
$91.56
$100.56
$81.96
$85.67
$79.61
$78.58
$98.32
$85.56
$93.03
$94.02
$92.15
$75.44
$91.66
$85.17
$97.13
$97.76
$96.89
 $87.23
$75.26
$81.79
$91.06
$103.07
$95.94
$93.27
$91.51
$79.06
$83.13
$79.73
$96.99
$100.23
$88.75
$89.48
$96.91
$77.38
$94.75
$89.09
$88.21
$91.63
$77.31
$92.47
$79.50
$79.08
$81.69
$89.57
$99.66
$78.05
$97.07
$84.16
$86.24
$92.90
$78.54
$93.84
$81.25
$100.94
$91.20
$89.70
$104.28
$104.49
$78.95
$95.20
$99.46
$80.39
 $82.81
$93.84
$85.62
$102.66
$98.60
$99.52
$95.07
$77.03
$90.49
$86.39
$77.92
$79.10
$99.12
$104.13
$104.08
$82.73
$98.14
$83.24
$95.37
$90.25
$79.62
$100.16
$77.01
$104.88
$76.49
$95.48
$96.68
$98.75
$83.62
$82.63
$102.77
$75.87
$84.55
$77.37
$101.34
$88.12
$104.31
$102.79
$99.93
$100.55
$91.66
$93.59
$99.34
$76.01
$99.54
 $99.48
$77.63
$81.36
$77.70
$81.21
$96.61
$98.51
$98.20
$84.18
$86.37
$86.32
$86.29
$89.68
$98.36
$93.12
$93.96
$97.89
$80.32
$84.06
$86.84
$78.01
$92.56
$91.90
$83.98
$85.61
$86.04
$80.06
$100.16
$88.45
$88.58
$94.85
$81.62
$76.24
$91.54
$103.42
$94.55
$102.60
$83.17
$93.83
$83.72
$93.68
$89.95
$88.30
$104.38
$76.53
$104.53
$99.38
$76.17
$103.90
$75.18
$89.06
$80.87
$93.90
$76.12
$96.41
$95.70
$94.12
$91.46
$76.41
$76.66
$85.08
$99.84
$89.75
$78.21
$98.20
$89.36
$103.05
$76.19
$89.64
$93.55
$77.31
$78.77
$104.65
$95.86
$79.94
$89.54
$83.00
$82.89
$94.80
$82.34
$97.25
$104.55
$104.60
$75.96
$84.32
$98.99
$91.39
$96.71
$94.94
$93.19
 $94.87
$81.07
$103.19
$86.71
$93.98
$77.92
$95.21
$92.52
$98.99
$88.95
$99.05
$81.77
$96.36
$94.71
$93.63
$77.90
$82.46
$83.57
$78.02
$97.54
$84.91
$83.49
$93.26
$86.13
$103.70
$104.94
$78.33
$91.33
$99.24
$80.25
$96.01
$87.48
$88.10
$104.12
$95.81
$100.71
$102.81
$78.07
$87.18
$87.11
$96.85
$83.12
$90.00
$101.51
$85.97
$103.95
$77.08
$81.59
$94.03
$89.22
$98.27
$90.81
$93.91
$86.55
$102.75
$81.71
$75.29
$90.51
$80.54
$94.55
$101.97
$103.34
$80.57
$102.77
$81.24
$82.11
$81.21
$84.93
$103.86
$91.85
$90.79
$89.50
$88.77
$94.40
$98.50
$79.70
$104.33
$93.76
$95.98
$98.61
$94.16
$90.05
$81.42
$89.97
$90.73
$95.68
$103.79
$103.10
$83.29
$96.05
 $91.64
$96.86
$90.75
$84.15
$80.03
$80.54
$78.90
$103.24
$104.51
$102.15
$99.27
$95.80
$84.91
$104.87
$95.33
$78.88
$91.65
$103.22
$100.59
$76.82
$86.51
$83.29
$79.41
$94.42
$76.71
$102.32
$102.01
$104.62
$89.86
$103.93
$100.98
$88.05
$78.89
$85.21
$100.51
$92.65
$91.86
$95.04
$95.88
$92.25
$89.00
$82.85
$84.79
$99.11
$98.99
 $90.74
$77.50
$80.07
$87.31
$80.81
$99.39
$84.46
$77.26
$91.33
$89.49
$82.40
$99.81
$85.95
$78.17
$83.71
$103.83
$98.71
$76.60
$90.44
$83.86
$102.28
$83.08
$86.59
$90.05
$104.56
$104.41
$103.50
$93.80
$96.64
$91.15
$101.41
$94.89
$83.40
$90.08
$81.04
$82.44
$93.68
$96.46
$102.14
$99.83
$79.14
$97.05
$90.93
$104.81
$88.06
 $75.92
$103.42
$75.99
$83.03
$89.88
$93.20
$95.35
$79.68
$78.95
$82.27
$89.73
$83.02
$104.90
$79.52
$97.50
$88.41
$97.72
$98.05
$92.75
$97.33
$99.21
$93.40
$79.23
$85.20
$94.47
$82.98
$99.38
$103.12
$84.53
$79.00
$102.92
$89.29
$93.00
$86.01
$101.42
$75.45
$77.26
$75.66
$102.63
$89.75
$92.04
$78.43
$87.18
$80.98
$98.76
 $84.30
$82.09
$79.45
$91.50
$101.29
$93.62
$87.51
$94.36
$93.28
$93.96
$92.17
$87.12
$101.39
$92.95
$103.32
$80.48
$84.13
$88.72
$84.51
$75.25
$80.22
$75.70
$103.51
$91.28
$99.19
$98.97
$75.26
$97.38
$97.12
$76.66
$79.32
$80.89
$98.45
$87.07
$79.25
$89.16
$85.86
$87.95
$81.72
$78.55
$87.94
$81.91
$93.79
$87.13
$84.21
 $88.84
$92.70
$103.36
$96.80
$103.82
$91.18
$100.50
$82.28
$88.12
$77.13
$84.79
$104.20
$100.69
$91.94
$81.47
$81.15
$91.54
$75.28
$90.05
$76.86
$100.06
$89.72
$99.00
$79.07
$92.01
$75.99
$102.12
$83.49
$104.87
$95.55
$91.41
$98.86
$76.61
$104.15
$90.66
$78.50
$82.95
$75.62
$78.02
$103.65
$89.56
$80.83
$97.53
$101.40
$94.23
 $83.57
$78.89
$93.20
$76.93
$96.42
$81.97
$99.06
$84.21
$77.94
$79.59
$79.51
$101.90
$94.68
$91.66
$88.55
$99.86
$82.28
$84.26
$87.74
$93.89
$95.70
$82.07
$87.11
$88.79
$99.29
$87.52
$104.42
$103.40
$76.70
$76.25
$97.42
$97.24
$88.79
$76.63
$98.01
$89.04
$97.18
$94.39
$100.51
$94.61
$79.10
$102.31
$91.54
$94.08
$98.39
 $80.92
$88.89
$75.04
$98.77
$96.77
$84.87
$96.33
$91.52
$86.33
$95.21
$80.02
$79.79
$88.98
$76.82
$96.95
$77.57
$97.76
$80.62
$86.54
$92.70
$89.34
$85.72
$77.10
$104.08
$76.86
$96.04
$87.30
$100.10
$97.27
$94.98
$83.42
$84.97
$86.22
$83.68
$97.44
$89.14
$98.53
$91.65
$83.53
$86.45
$94.23
$95.88
$79.86
$103.44
$82.53
 $78.79
$101.10
$88.33
$88.95
$94.75
$80.47
$96.35
$83.07
$88.97
$75.34
$104.27
$90.43
$83.72
$89.49
$88.38
$82.71
$75.85
$88.40
$103.36
$89.96
$101.17
$101.84
$93.51
$99.69
$95.38
$86.65
$79.57
$93.19
$76.19
$91.10
$86.18
$82.03
$85.51
$86.74
$91.59
$95.41
$98.32
$77.33
$94.44
$99.56
$86.54
$93.66
$97.13
$90.73
$98.62
 $83.79
$102.89
$86.42
$75.20
$96.00
$76.71
$76.05
$77.82
$91.95
$104.02
$90.48
$89.46
$90.96
$99.42
$87.35
$101.03
$81.99
$96.06
$98.48
$75.32
$81.36
$99.25
$95.16
$100.92
$79.95
$88.66
$101.95
$79.59
$100.92
$80.60
$100.90
$86.89
$102.54
$102.48
$77.07
$78.17
$96.75
$101.05
$93.52
$93.91
$92.06
$99.50
$90.41
$77.01
$81.35
 $85.73
$101.87
$100.11
$86.54
$97.77
$96.68
$96.93
$100.70
$99.08
$83.85
$98.08
$81.97
$100.35
$100.11
$77.50
$77.80
$91.54
$92.45
$78.64
$86.84
$102.24
$84.17
$99.01
$80.00
$88.79
$91.90
$75.47
$87.64
$98.56
 Distribution Based on
Historical Data Min Max Distribution Based on Historical Data for Ra
Uniform $75.00 $105.00

ution Based on Historical Data for Random Variable (Uncertain Value)

= Material Cost Per Unit Relative Frequency
Frequency (Estimated Probability)
214 0.1758
214 0.1758
184 0.1512
215 0.1767
197 0.1619
193 0.1586
0 0.0000
80 85 90
1217
95 100
1
105
Cost ($)(Upper Limit)
on Based on Historical Data for Random Variable (Uncertain Value) = Material Cost Per Unit
 Assumed: Variable
Random Variable (Uncertain Value) Variable Type
Material Cost Per Unit MC Continuous

Randomly Created Value Based on Specified

Prob Distribution: $104.91 =RANDBETWEEN(E2*100,F2*100)/100
Randomly Created Value Based on Specified
Prob Distribution: $76.71 =E2+ROUND((F2-E2)*RAND(),2)

Distribution Based on Historical Data for Random Variable (Uncerta

= Material Cost Per Unit

Relative Frequency (Estimated Probabil-

Cost ($)(Upper
Limit)
80
85

ity)
90
95
100
105
80 85 90 95 100
Cost ($)(Upper Limit)

Material Cost Per Unit

$84.05
$95.40
$93.76
$80.69
$78.63
$84.83
$83.60
$80.74
$89.90
$103.43
$96.83
$100.50
$87.82
$100.07
$96.60
$95.06
$85.50
$80.94
$104.10
$86.86
$91.38
$79.22
$86.93
$96.82
$97.52
$83.06
$100.22
$102.01
$88.92
$79.05
$99.94
$86.71
$87.19
$82.33
$83.91
$87.40
$89.12
$88.66
$93.78
$100.52
$100.87
$89.39
$83.07
$95.17
$80.11
$84.93
$80.96
$98.79
$93.69
$82.12
$104.01
$84.49
$94.33
$80.53
$101.01
$75.32
$81.40
$79.76
$96.47
$102.40
$90.07
$83.80
$88.43
 $86.63
$92.96
$98.51
$89.43
$92.06
$104.48
$96.94
$92.05
$79.83
$94.66
$95.71
$93.43
$82.67
$84.68
$88.73
$92.18
$79.46
$83.15
$96.50
$88.91
$90.60
$79.73
$90.14
$84.79
$91.72
$87.26
$84.99
$103.66
$96.84
$94.35
$97.26
$76.32
$84.63
$93.71
$78.73
$95.10
$86.37
$79.86
$96.39
$86.90
$78.60
$85.03
$92.45
$91.57
$89.16
$102.34
$89.47
$92.97
$91.04
$103.84
$89.36
$82.05
$82.99
$101.55
$103.14
$76.64
$102.11
$101.76
$97.89
$92.59
$83.38
$102.50
$83.69
$101.33
$91.73
$97.50
$94.12
$100.71
$104.08
$90.14
$92.37
$100.98
$85.22
$85.34
$91.56
$95.31
$100.22
$82.38
$103.90
$89.13
$96.69
$86.10
$88.58
$92.90
$93.48
$78.75
$102.38
$94.95
$82.53
$90.74
$100.11
$80.46
$77.36
$85.22
$97.13
$76.69
$104.62
$92.54
$84.55
$78.26
$75.59
$88.23
$75.41
$84.83
$87.11
$102.86
$93.18
$85.62
$78.88
$82.93
$79.32
$96.22
$78.86
$88.58
$98.68
$103.22
$95.26
$75.00
$75.79
$75.79
$94.90
$92.06
$96.36
$75.91
$98.02
$102.00
$101.19
$104.66
$82.71
$77.65
$87.66
$100.83
$94.38
$76.12
$97.99
$100.36
$97.91
$98.70
$102.99
$81.63
$80.91
$89.86
$82.64
$88.83
$82.01
$85.20
$98.09
$81.68
$81.05
$102.86
$102.63
$86.16
$92.70
$98.24
$81.94
$89.44
$98.22
$84.51
$100.86
$75.32
$93.33
$81.11
$87.67
$85.04
$86.49
$95.51
$93.39
$90.85
$104.92
$96.90
$101.62
$101.33
$75.82
$82.36
$89.42
$77.07
$83.54
$89.79
$93.43
$101.38
 $83.51
$88.55
$80.41
$80.57
$89.93
$82.99
$104.34
$85.66
$89.11
$104.66
$84.57
$99.90
$82.89
$87.79
$78.26
$83.13
$80.24
$99.87
$76.29
$100.70
$89.29
$80.24
$97.03
$77.13
$92.31
$103.64
$89.33
$99.79
$76.12
$84.62
$95.83
$81.19
$85.34
$79.66
$76.11
$99.88
$88.98
$80.53
$82.65
$84.92
$96.47
$91.60
$102.83
$95.36
$85.88
 $95.57
$87.42
$92.91
$75.97
$75.80
$81.94
$81.98
$101.40
$75.73
$79.49
$77.29
$80.67
$98.16
$76.06
$80.99
$84.19
$86.33
$82.51
$104.39
$92.25
$90.51
$78.03
$88.53
$82.71
$89.70
$86.93
$99.90
$84.27
$81.16
$100.98
$102.32
$76.01
$86.53
$95.16
$90.06
$81.27
$76.76
$81.76
$98.13
$102.52
$88.22
$86.30
$84.30
$88.56
$82.31
 $82.95
$92.37
$104.08
$91.50
$89.17
$88.46
$99.29
$80.74
$93.69
$75.11
$75.60
$89.09
$87.81
$77.15
$86.43
$77.43
$76.02
$86.75
$75.70
$87.99
$79.14
$94.01
$84.12
$79.45
$86.96
$88.73
$88.06
$92.09
$86.66
$103.62
$95.30
$76.36
$104.88
$88.68
$104.29
$104.57
$92.29
$96.37
$89.30
$98.70
$87.46
$90.14
$99.37
$88.60
$85.23
 $99.29
$103.01
$95.13
$86.57
$85.40
$89.10
$78.72
$96.17
$84.65
$100.46
$92.97
$104.43
$85.92
$91.70
$91.47
$76.98
$82.41
$101.91
$78.56
$85.13
$102.88
$94.38
$101.84
$97.32
$88.16
$84.98
$93.09
$103.83
$100.00
$89.03
$93.79
$100.62
$101.98
$102.49
$88.81
$78.53
$102.17
$102.50
$89.42
$86.09
$99.63
$97.04
$98.74
$93.49
$93.59
 $87.53
$84.41
$103.47
$88.05
$100.56
$89.79
$103.61
$96.06
$100.97
$75.96
$87.89
$79.53
$83.92
$92.04
$99.20
$88.20
$84.62
$97.64
$79.17
$82.90
$77.62
$86.40
$87.15
$80.26
$77.43
$92.47
$75.23
$75.44
$76.62
$85.28
$87.43
$89.81
$101.03
$80.24
$79.82
$104.31
$100.81
$94.33
$90.90
$79.01
$84.30
$80.67
$96.66
$83.13
$96.17
 $80.65
$98.74
$99.81
$90.29
$104.89
$102.79
$100.31
$87.12
$88.61
$104.61
$79.54
$79.93
$81.74
$96.14
$82.61
$76.58
$89.86
$98.64
$96.26
$90.37
$98.63
$100.33
$81.94
$99.85
$92.32
$92.07
$92.62
$97.13
$76.37
$102.05
$80.83
$96.78
$87.82
$99.25
$90.77
$75.50
$91.25
$85.83
$94.58
$94.53
$98.69
$95.09
$89.00
$100.03
$103.91
 $95.71
$103.65
$95.68
$75.32
$96.17
$90.44
$99.96
$87.09
$80.21
$93.82
$80.23
$96.15
$96.49
$99.31
$93.14
$78.52
$102.33
$89.73
$77.13
$101.00
$83.96
$80.53
$79.95
$83.96
$77.84
$86.39
$96.67
$79.34
$93.72
$76.25
$88.66
$99.78
$99.16
$88.90
$77.09
$103.93
$90.49
$79.28
$83.25
$85.11
$81.42
$100.38
$76.17
$93.85
$93.62
 $83.77
$90.66
$88.71
$87.16
$101.25
$77.48
$98.04
$82.34
$91.06
$104.87
$81.42
$78.07
$78.64
$82.70
$94.96
$77.61
$81.21
$80.08
$77.79
$103.07
$89.49
$100.53
$104.18
$84.71
$88.91
$99.23
$103.34
$94.26
$98.00
$76.39
$95.88
$87.97
$91.19
$92.75
$83.60
$94.92
$101.34
$85.72
$93.20
$102.83
$92.18
$89.28
$86.97
$76.48
$100.94
 $78.34
$86.95
$94.78
$75.75
$97.28
$94.24
$82.74
$90.85
$82.03
$85.81
$104.49
$89.98
$102.27
$85.64
$99.98
$76.20
$90.18
$78.59
$98.56
$79.50
$97.79
$99.26
$80.38
$100.20
$90.18
$100.39
$100.38
$83.00
$79.20
$102.14
$88.12
$93.16
$88.55
$79.42
$101.90
$90.37
$78.79
$81.45
$99.28
$80.43
$102.21
$79.84
$102.65
$85.38
$104.23
$103.34
$100.67
$84.16
$102.94
$85.26
$85.82
$100.96
$100.13
$89.21
$99.63
$78.09
$85.13
$104.31
$89.87
$93.36
$80.52
$102.10
$103.76
$96.58
$98.46
$93.71
$102.84
$102.30
$103.65
$93.21
$90.94
$87.37
$81.43
$80.43
$104.26
$87.99
$87.18
$92.20
$92.81
$97.65
$91.49
$101.15
$94.42
$95.59
$103.70
$102.57
$97.31
$94.39
$94.14
$80.25
$102.92
$95.19
$80.23
$78.25
$94.96
$81.30
$76.15
$85.17
$96.69
$81.37
$102.43
$103.12
$87.82
$95.94
$104.21
$103.85
$98.03
$93.32
$81.87
$82.59
$79.70
$95.28
$78.53
$83.53
$76.84
$87.14
$80.97
$93.94
$78.04
$94.82
$83.17
$101.68
$84.98
$77.68
$102.85
$98.94
$75.73
$78.49
$91.97
$80.62
$75.98
$101.24
$78.43
$101.36
$78.92
 $79.89
$97.82
$81.88
$75.69
$85.96
$83.52
$87.28
$91.98
$80.99
$87.99
$91.77
$97.58
$85.98
$84.19
$81.77
$94.05
$86.61
$75.42
$97.72
$97.22
$104.58
$89.05
$102.12
$96.08
$77.52
$103.07
$97.20
$84.39
$78.02
$100.88
$102.83
$79.47
$98.12
$84.94
$92.64
$81.65
$99.55
$102.98
$103.49
$82.00
$95.16
$95.47
$88.44
$82.97
$88.92
 $90.08
$102.22
$92.36
$89.67
$95.51
$79.42
$89.84
$80.76
$97.95
$76.55
$99.23
$76.42
$91.49
$86.11
$90.28
$77.05
$79.60
$77.08
$100.96
$83.92
$104.51
$93.73
$81.06
$87.10
$85.89
$96.82
$88.58
$90.90
$92.74
$88.78
$102.90
$91.75
$103.19
$89.21
$99.94
$87.42
$89.03
$99.87
$95.70
$103.22
$96.58
$90.38
$98.43
$104.01
$92.58
 $84.88
$99.93
$102.25
$102.85
$76.16
$85.95
$82.76
$76.81
$81.48
$77.20
$92.53
$101.81
$77.55
$76.08
$101.47
$101.19
$79.44
$88.25
$92.51
$82.94
$82.82
$86.72
$90.18
$95.35
$82.47
$86.01
$84.78
$75.21
$82.03
$104.19
$81.47
$101.31
$99.06
$90.40
$99.00
$81.35
$103.57
$95.32
$81.28
$87.06
$85.42
$92.81
$104.33
$87.53
$100.63
$100.76
$96.02
$88.27
$86.46
$99.91
$91.51
$83.61
$92.79
$104.52
$101.21
$94.14
$87.94
$83.25
$99.85
$92.70
$93.89
$104.90
$100.68
$86.50
$85.01
$99.54
$94.13
$102.48
$95.65
$87.73
$101.78
$91.08
$84.99
$77.99
$88.17
$97.32
$92.81
$100.38
$81.65
$103.58
$88.79
$79.20
$100.39
$92.00
$93.73
$97.25
$89.03
$76.49
$82.07
$81.59
 $94.00
$91.13
$76.90
$103.36
$98.03
$94.77
$90.44
$87.70
$89.47
$104.21
$103.22
$90.83
$102.10
$102.70
$78.95
$87.26
$101.74
$94.01
$80.64
$98.35
$80.34
$79.36
$97.85
$82.04
$77.11
$89.78
$96.37
$85.80
$96.07
$97.20
$100.79
$90.84
$82.79
$86.55
$75.64
$94.84
$104.90
$86.45
$77.25
$89.60
$92.03
$91.33
$79.06
$84.22
$103.25
 $88.02
$80.80
$88.19
$100.43
$94.73
$77.56
$95.29
$83.09
$89.71
$80.77
$84.61
$81.53
$101.74
$93.14
$83.30
$99.32
$85.54
$83.31
$87.62
$98.59
$90.90
$103.23
$81.20
$93.87
$81.03
$88.48
$89.98
$88.00
$94.87
$92.30
$101.11
$91.21
$94.86
$91.54
$87.14
$100.04
$102.32
$83.69
$79.95
$76.73
$99.53
$80.83
$98.19
$102.21
$77.10
 $80.64
$85.78
$100.77
$96.58
$82.17
$95.66
$91.84
$83.00
$98.22
$98.17
$104.90
$92.79
$87.87
$95.63
$104.57
$79.47
$92.56
$97.73
$97.35
$98.80
$90.24
$97.70
$91.65
$90.04
$90.34
$95.72
$83.73
$75.26
$98.77
$79.24
$89.99
$92.65
$88.88
$76.10
$78.25
$77.39
$85.13
$83.28
$102.62
$85.34
$80.10
$91.50
$78.91
$76.01
$99.66
 $95.70
$76.42
$100.26
$82.88
$92.98
$78.59
$99.47
$104.91
$94.11
$77.01
$104.77
$79.39
$88.50
$104.80
$99.23
$97.67
$99.33
$77.43
$91.66
$92.36
$90.12
$87.53
$97.04
$94.10
$89.73
$87.45
$91.55
$85.71
$91.70
$76.52
$78.92
$84.18
$77.79
$103.89
$79.97
$87.52
$100.28
$79.59
$101.30
$98.41
$81.67
$99.56
$85.68
$91.67
$103.33
$100.53
$75.98
$78.36
$78.73
$81.51
$96.83
$103.14
$78.66
$103.85
$85.52
$99.39
$78.89
$86.26
$91.18
$89.01
$95.15
$82.69
$100.63
$87.50
$98.11
$88.15
$76.14
$100.07
$75.25
$89.19
$98.50
$82.86
$77.76
$80.77
$103.16
$77.32
$96.09
$83.25
$89.43
$97.70
$83.60
$82.44
$98.70
$86.55
$81.67
$99.49
$100.13
$96.76
$93.87
$88.51
 $86.12
$79.82
$100.29
$92.51
$100.00
$90.51
$96.79
$102.74
$91.62
$75.68
$75.91
$89.25
$99.42
$101.29
$80.11
$91.75
$87.70
$88.37
$84.68
$99.06
$88.76
$88.97
$88.66
$91.24
$100.09
$80.12
$94.30
$94.02
$89.90
$75.05
$98.34
$89.07
$83.39
$91.47
$76.07
$94.19
$95.03
$95.86
$104.27
$85.01
$80.34
$78.85
$96.81
$80.74
$87.01
 $96.75
$89.59
$102.99
$95.71
$84.94
$102.67
$102.00
$78.92
$93.06
$77.51
$92.57
$94.95
$100.72
$103.09
$78.26
$91.86
$76.80
$82.45
$81.12
$96.99
$94.08
$88.71
$96.68
$87.13
$90.20
$86.66
$75.85
$80.81
$75.64
 Distribution Based on
Historical Data Min Max Distribution Based on Historical Data for Ra
Uniform $75.00 $105.00

ETWEEN(E2*100,F2*100)/100

UND((F2-E2)*RAND(),2)

on Based on Historical Data for Random Variable (Uncertain Value)

= Material Cost Per Unit

Relative Frequency
Frequency (Estimated Probability)
185 0.1520
202 0.1660
226 0.1857
196 0.1611
195 0.1602
213 0.1750
85 90 95 0 100 105
0.0000
1217
Cost ($)(Upper Limit) 1
on Based on Historical Data for Random Variable (Uncertain Value) = Material Cost Per Unit
Random Variable (Uncertain Value) Variable Assumed: Variable Type
Demand for Product D Continuous

RAND() Function
NORM.INV Function (Generates value based on
inputted cumulative probability value).
Randomly Created Value Based on Specified Prob
Distribution:

Distribution Based on Historical Data for Random Variable (Uncertain Value) = Demand for Product,
with mean = 17500 and SD = 5000.
If RAND() Function = 0 this is the cumulative probability from 0 up to the x value of 0.
P(X)

-2500 -400 1700 3800 5900 8000 1010012200143001640018500206002270024800269002900031100332003530037400

Demand Upper Limit = X

If RAND() Function = 0 this is

the cumulative probability
Demand Upper Limit = X P(X) from 0 up to the x value of 0.
-2500 2.676605E-08 2.67660451529771E-08
-2400 2.898951E-08 2.89895120847782E-08
-2300 3.138513E-08 3.13851268131065E-08
-2200 3.396512E-08 3.39651198858687E-08
-2100 3.67425E-08 3.67424996004914E-08
-2000 3.973109E-08 3.97310942785545E-08
-1900 4.29456E-08 4.29455963000734E-08
-1800 4.640161E-08 4.64016079313885E-08
-1700 5.011569E-08 5.01156889781722E-08
-1600 5.410541E-08 5.41054062923042E-08
-1500 5.838939E-08 5.83893851582921E-08
-1400 6.298736E-08 6.29873625815044E-08
-1300 6.792024E-08 6.7920242496731E-08
-1200 7.321015E-08 7.3210152911467E-08
-1100 7.88805E-08 7.88805049938312E-08
-1000 8.495605E-08 8.49560541101503E-08
-900 9.146296E-08 9.14629628119713E-08
-800 9.842887E-08 9.84288657665786E-08
-700 1.058829E-07 1.05882936618987E-07
-600 1.13856E-07 1.13855956766851E-07
-500 1.223804E-07 1.22380386022754E-07
-400 1.314904E-07 1.31490435130935E-07
-300 1.412221E-07 1.41222140097607E-07
-200 1.516134E-07 1.51613438285742E-07
-100 1.627042E-07 1.62704246216362E-07
0 1.745365E-07
100 1.871544E-07
200 2.006043E-07
300 2.149347E-07
400 2.301967E-07
500 2.464438E-07
600 2.637322E-07
700 2.821205E-07
800 3.016701E-07
900 3.224455E-07
1000 3.445138E-07
1100 3.679452E-07
1200 3.928132E-07
1300 4.191941E-07
1400 4.471679E-07
1500 4.768176E-07
1600 5.0823E-07
1700 5.414952E-07
1800 5.767069E-07
1900 6.139627E-07
2000 6.533638E-07
2100 6.950155E-07
2200 7.390267E-07
2300 7.855107E-07
2400 8.345846E-07
2500 8.863697E-07
2600 9.409915E-07
2700 9.985798E-07
2800 1.059269E-06
2900 1.123197E-06
3000 1.190506E-06
3100 1.261345E-06
3200 1.335865E-06
3300 1.414221E-06
3400 1.496575E-06
3500 1.58309E-06
3600 1.673938E-06
3700 1.769291E-06
3800 1.869328E-06
3900 1.974231E-06
4000 2.084187E-06
4100 2.199387E-06
4200 2.320027E-06
4300 2.446305E-06
4400 2.578425E-06
4500 2.716594E-06
4600 2.861022E-06
4700 3.011923E-06
4800 3.169516E-06
4900 3.33402E-06
5000 3.50566E-06
5100 3.684662E-06
5200 3.871255E-06
5300 4.065671E-06
5400 4.268143E-06
5500 4.478906E-06
5600 4.698197E-06
5700 4.926254E-06
5800 5.163315E-06
5900 5.40962E-06
6000 5.665408E-06
6100 5.930917E-06
6200 6.206386E-06
6300 6.492053E-06
6400 6.788153E-06
6500 7.094919E-06
6600 7.412582E-06
6700 7.741371E-06
6800 8.081511E-06
6900 8.433221E-06
7000 8.796719E-06
7100 9.172215E-06
7200 9.559915E-06
7300 9.960018E-06
7400 1.037272E-05
7500 1.079819E-05
7600 1.123663E-05
 7700 1.168819E-05
7800 1.215303E-05
7900 1.263131E-05
8000 1.312316E-05
8100 1.362871E-05
8200 1.414808E-05
8300 1.468136E-05
8400 1.522865E-05
8500 1.579003E-05
8600 1.636556E-05
8700 1.695527E-05
8800 1.755921E-05
8900 1.81774E-05
9000 1.880982E-05
9100 1.945645E-05
9200 2.011727E-05
9300 2.079222E-05
9400 2.148122E-05
9500 2.218417E-05
9600 2.290096E-05
9700 2.363146E-05
9800 2.437551E-05
9900 2.513293E-05
10000 2.590352E-05
10100 2.668706E-05
10200 2.748331E-05
10300 2.829199E-05
10400 2.911283E-05
10500 2.994549E-05
10600 3.078966E-05
10700 3.164496E-05
10800 3.251101E-05
10900 3.338741E-05
11000 3.427372E-05
11100 3.516949E-05
11200 3.607423E-05
11300 3.698746E-05
11400 3.790863E-05
11500 3.883721E-05
11600 3.977262E-05
11700 4.071428E-05
11800 4.166156E-05
11900 4.261383E-05
12000 4.357044E-05
12100 4.45307E-05
12200 4.549393E-05
12300 4.64594E-05
12400 4.742639E-05
12500 4.839414E-05
12600 4.93619E-05
12700 5.032887E-05
12800 5.129426E-05
12900 5.225726E-05
13000 5.321705E-05
13100 5.417279E-05
13200 5.512365E-05
13300 5.606876E-05
13400 5.700727E-05
13500 5.793831E-05
13600 5.886101E-05
13700 5.977448E-05
13800 6.067786E-05
13900 6.157025E-05
14000 6.245079E-05
14100 6.331858E-05
14200 6.417276E-05
14300 6.501245E-05
14400 6.583679E-05
14500 6.664492E-05
14600 6.743599E-05
14700 6.820916E-05
14800 6.89636E-05
14900 6.96985E-05
15000 7.041307E-05
15100 7.110651E-05
15200 7.177806E-05
15300 7.242698E-05
15400 7.305253E-05
15500 7.365403E-05
15600 7.423078E-05
15700 7.478212E-05
15800 7.530743E-05
15900 7.580611E-05
16000 7.627756E-05
16100 7.672126E-05
16200 7.713667E-05
16300 7.752332E-05
16400 7.788075E-05
16500 7.820854E-05
16600 7.85063E-05
16700 7.877367E-05
16800 7.901035E-05
16900 7.921604E-05
17000 7.939051E-05
17100 7.953354E-05
17200 7.964497E-05
17300 7.972465E-05
17400 7.97725E-05
17500 7.978846E-05
17600 7.97725E-05
17700 7.972465E-05
17800 7.964497E-05
17900 7.953354E-05
18000 7.939051E-05
18100 7.921604E-05
18200 7.901035E-05
18300 7.877367E-05
18400 7.85063E-05
18500 7.820854E-05
18600 7.788075E-05
18700 7.752332E-05
18800 7.713667E-05
18900 7.672126E-05
19000 7.627756E-05
19100 7.580611E-05
19200 7.530743E-05
19300 7.478212E-05
19400 7.423078E-05
19500 7.365403E-05
19600 7.305253E-05
19700 7.242698E-05
19800 7.177806E-05
19900 7.110651E-05
20000 7.041307E-05
20100 6.96985E-05
20200 6.89636E-05
20300 6.820916E-05
20400 6.743599E-05
20500 6.664492E-05
20600 6.583679E-05
20700 6.501245E-05
20800 6.417276E-05
20900 6.331858E-05
21000 6.245079E-05
21100 6.157025E-05
21200 6.067786E-05
21300 5.977448E-05
21400 5.886101E-05
21500 5.793831E-05
21600 5.700727E-05
21700 5.606876E-05
21800 5.512365E-05
21900 5.417279E-05
22000 5.321705E-05
22100 5.225726E-05
22200 5.129426E-05
22300 5.032887E-05
22400 4.93619E-05
22500 4.839414E-05
22600 4.742639E-05
22700 4.64594E-05
22800 4.549393E-05
22900 4.45307E-05
23000 4.357044E-05
23100 4.261383E-05
23200 4.166156E-05
23300 4.071428E-05
23400 3.977262E-05
23500 3.883721E-05
23600 3.790863E-05
23700 3.698746E-05
23800 3.607423E-05
23900 3.516949E-05
24000 3.427372E-05
24100 3.338741E-05
24200 3.251101E-05
24300 3.164496E-05
24400 3.078966E-05
24500 2.994549E-05
24600 2.911283E-05
24700 2.829199E-05
24800 2.748331E-05
24900 2.668706E-05
25000 2.590352E-05
25100 2.513293E-05
25200 2.437551E-05
25300 2.363146E-05
25400 2.290096E-05
25500 2.218417E-05
25600 2.148122E-05
25700 2.079222E-05
25800 2.011727E-05
25900 1.945645E-05
26000 1.880982E-05
26100 1.81774E-05
26200 1.755921E-05
26300 1.695527E-05
26400 1.636556E-05
26500 1.579003E-05
26600 1.522865E-05
26700 1.468136E-05
26800 1.414808E-05
26900 1.362871E-05
27000 1.312316E-05
27100 1.263131E-05
27200 1.215303E-05
27300 1.168819E-05
27400 1.123663E-05
27500 1.079819E-05
27600 1.037272E-05
27700 9.960018E-06
27800 9.559915E-06
27900 9.172215E-06
28000 8.796719E-06
28100 8.433221E-06
28200 8.081511E-06
28300 7.741371E-06
28400 7.412582E-06
28500 7.094919E-06
28600 6.788153E-06
28700 6.492053E-06
28800 6.206386E-06
28900 5.930917E-06
29000 5.665408E-06
29100 5.40962E-06
29200 5.163315E-06
29300 4.926254E-06
29400 4.698197E-06
29500 4.478906E-06
29600 4.268143E-06
29700 4.065671E-06
29800 3.871255E-06
29900 3.684662E-06
30000 3.50566E-06
30100 3.33402E-06
30200 3.169516E-06
30300 3.011923E-06
30400 2.861022E-06
30500 2.716594E-06
30600 2.578425E-06
30700 2.446305E-06
30800 2.320027E-06
30900 2.199387E-06
31000 2.084187E-06
31100 1.974231E-06
31200 1.869328E-06
31300 1.769291E-06
31400 1.673938E-06
31500 1.58309E-06
31600 1.496575E-06
31700 1.414221E-06
31800 1.335865E-06
31900 1.261345E-06
32000 1.190506E-06
32100 1.123197E-06
32200 1.059269E-06
32300 9.985798E-07
32400 9.409915E-07
32500 8.863697E-07
32600 8.345846E-07
32700 7.855107E-07
32800 7.390267E-07
32900 6.950155E-07
33000 6.533638E-07
33100 6.139627E-07
33200 5.767069E-07
33300 5.414952E-07
33400 5.0823E-07
33500 4.768176E-07
33600 4.471679E-07
33700 4.191941E-07
33800 3.928132E-07
33900 3.679452E-07
34000 3.445138E-07
34100 3.224455E-07
34200 3.016701E-07
34300 2.821205E-07
34400 2.637322E-07
34500 2.464438E-07
34600 2.301967E-07
34700 2.149347E-07
34800 2.006043E-07
34900 1.871544E-07
35000 1.745365E-07
35100 1.627042E-07
35200 1.516134E-07
35300 1.412221E-07
35400 1.314904E-07
35500 1.223804E-07
35600 1.13856E-07
35700 1.058829E-07
35800 9.842887E-08
35900 9.146296E-08
36000 8.495605E-08
36100 7.88805E-08
36200 7.321015E-08
36300 6.792024E-08
36400 6.298736E-08
36500 5.838939E-08
36600 5.410541E-08
36700 5.011569E-08
36800 4.640161E-08
36900 4.29456E-08
37000 3.973109E-08
37100 3.67425E-08
37200 3.396512E-08
37300 3.138513E-08
37400 2.898951E-08
37500 2.676605E-08
 Distribution Based on Standard
Historical Data Mean Deviation
Normal 17,500 5,000

e) = Demand for Product,

o the x value of 0.

00269002900031100332003530037400

Chart Title:
Distribution Based on Historical Data for Random Variable (Uncertain Value) = Demand for Produc
in Value) = Demand for Product, with mean = 17500 and SD = 5000.
Random Variable (Uncertain Value) Variable Assumed: Variable Type
Demand for Product D Continuous

RAND() Function 0.129274194 =RAND()

NORM.INV Function (Generates value based on
inputted cumulative probability value). 11851 =ROUND(NORM.INV(B4,E2,F2),0)
Randomly Created Value Based on Specified Prob
Distribution: $25,649.00 =MAX(0,ROUND(NORM.INV(RAND(),E2,F2),0))

Distribution Based on Historical Data for Random Variable (Uncertain Value) = Demand for Product,
with mean = 17500 and SD = 5000.
If RAND() Function = 0.1293 this is the cumulative probability from 0 up to the x value of 11851.
P(X)

-2500 -400 1700 3800 5900 8000 1010012200143001640018500206002270024800269002900031100332003530037400

Demand Upper Limit = X

If RAND() Function = 0.1293

this is the cumulative
probability from 0 up to the x
Demand Upper Limit = X P(X) value of 11851.
-2500 2.676605E-08 2.67660451529771E-08
-2400 2.898951E-08 2.89895120847782E-08
-2300 3.138513E-08 3.13851268131065E-08
-2200 3.396512E-08 3.39651198858687E-08
-2100 3.67425E-08 3.67424996004914E-08
-2000 3.973109E-08 3.97310942785545E-08
-1900 4.29456E-08 4.29455963000734E-08
-1800 4.640161E-08 4.64016079313885E-08
-1700 5.011569E-08 5.01156889781722E-08
-1600 5.410541E-08 5.41054062923042E-08
-1500 5.838939E-08 5.83893851582921E-08
-1400 6.298736E-08 6.29873625815044E-08
-1300 6.792024E-08 6.7920242496731E-08
-1200 7.321015E-08 7.3210152911467E-08
-1100 7.88805E-08 7.88805049938312E-08
-1000 8.495605E-08 8.49560541101503E-08
-900 9.146296E-08 9.14629628119713E-08
-800 9.842887E-08 9.84288657665786E-08
-700 1.058829E-07 1.05882936618987E-07
-600 1.13856E-07 1.13855956766851E-07
-500 1.223804E-07 1.22380386022754E-07
-400 1.314904E-07 1.31490435130935E-07
-300 1.412221E-07 1.41222140097607E-07
-200 1.516134E-07 1.51613438285742E-07
-100 1.627042E-07 1.62704246216362E-07
0 1.745365E-07 1.74536539009152E-07
100 1.871544E-07 1.87154431385496E-07
200 2.006043E-07 2.00604260146848E-07
300 2.149347E-07 2.14934668030747E-07
400 2.301967E-07 2.30196688835697E-07
500 2.464438E-07 2.46443833694604E-07
600 2.637322E-07 2.63732178364548E-07
700 2.821205E-07 2.82120451388277E-07
800 3.016701E-07 3.01670122970061E-07
900 3.224455E-07 3.22445494395425E-07
1000 3.445138E-07 3.44513787810736E-07
1100 3.679452E-07 3.67945236164856E-07
1200 3.928132E-07 3.92813173100875E-07
1300 4.191941E-07 4.19194122571588E-07
1400 4.471679E-07 4.47167887937708E-07
1500 4.768176E-07 4.76817640292968E-07
1600 5.0823E-07 5.08230005745304E-07
1700 5.414952E-07 5.4149515136814E-07
1800 5.767069E-07 5.76706869520688E-07
1900 6.139627E-07 6.13962660220948E-07
2000 6.533638E-07 6.53363811239984E-07
2100 6.950155E-07 6.95015475570988E-07
2200 7.390267E-07 7.39026745911807E-07
2300 7.855107E-07 7.85510725784956E-07
2400 8.345846E-07 8.34584596904793E-07
2500 8.863697E-07 8.86369682387602E-07
2600 9.409915E-07 9.40991505386796E-07
2700 9.985798E-07 9.98579842722475E-07
2800 1.059269E-06 1.0592687730622E-06
2900 1.123197E-06 1.12319671919819E-06
3000 1.190506E-06 1.19050648395517E-06
3100 1.261345E-06 1.26134527925319E-06
3200 1.335865E-06 1.33586474784052E-06
3300 1.414221E-06 1.41422097720389E-06
3400 1.496575E-06 1.49657450515611E-06
3500 1.58309E-06 1.58309031659599E-06
3600 1.673938E-06 1.67393783093061E-06
3700 1.769291E-06 1.76929087964745E-06
3800 1.869328E-06 1.86932767352246E-06
3900 1.974231E-06 1.97423075895023E-06
4000 2.084187E-06 2.08418696288452E-06
4100 2.199387E-06 2.19938732588111E-06
4200 2.320027E-06 2.32002702274051E-06
4300 2.446305E-06 2.44630527025559E-06
4400 2.578425E-06 2.57842522157906E-06
4500 2.716594E-06 2.71659384673712E-06
4600 2.861022E-06 2.86102179882994E-06
4700 3.011923E-06 3.01192326547549E-06
4800 3.169516E-06 3.16951580507216E-06
4900 3.33402E-06 3.33402016747621E-06
5000 3.50566E-06 3.50566009871371E-06
5100 3.684662E-06 3.68466212937241E-06
5200 3.871255E-06 3.87125534634739E-06
5300 4.065671E-06 4.06567114764517E-06
5400 4.268143E-06 4.26814297998456E-06
5500 4.478906E-06 4.47890605896858E-06
5600 4.698197E-06 4.69819707164027E-06
5700 4.926254E-06 4.9262538612765E-06
5800 5.163315E-06 5.16331509431754E-06
5900 5.40962E-06 5.40961990937636E-06
6000 5.665408E-06 5.66540754832024E-06
6100 5.930917E-06 5.93091696946826E-06
6200 6.206386E-06 6.20638644300165E-06
6300 6.492053E-06 6.49205312873949E-06
6400 6.788153E-06 6.78815263648984E-06
6500 7.094919E-06 7.09491856924628E-06
6600 7.412582E-06 7.4125820495613E-06
6700 7.741371E-06 7.74137122949112E-06
6800 8.081511E-06 8.08151078457206E-06
6900 8.433221E-06 8.43322139235406E-06
7000 8.796719E-06 8.79671919608544E-06
7100 9.172215E-06 9.17221525421098E-06
7200 9.559915E-06 9.55991497641541E-06
7300 9.960018E-06 9.96001754701416E-06
7400 1.037272E-05 1.03727153365641E-05
7500 1.079819E-05 1.07981933026376E-05
7600 1.123663E-05 1.12366283807736E-05
 7700 1.168819E-05 1.16881888666903E-05
7800 1.215303E-05 1.2153033790913E-05
7900 1.263131E-05 1.26313122870397E-05
8000 1.312316E-05 1.31231629549353E-05
8100 1.362871E-05 1.36287132202089E-05
8200 1.414808E-05 1.41480786913967E-05
8300 1.468136E-05 1.46813625163314E-05
8400 1.522865E-05 1.52286547392415E-05
8500 1.579003E-05 1.57900316601788E-05
8600 1.636556E-05 1.63655551984286E-05
8700 1.695527E-05 1.69552722616044E-05
8800 1.755921E-05 1.75592141221811E-05
8900 1.81774E-05 1.81773958032566E-05
9000 1.880982E-05 1.88098154753774E-05
9100 1.945645E-05 1.94564538662935E-05
9200 2.011727E-05 2.01172736855381E-05
9300 2.079222E-05 2.07922190657528E-05
9400 2.148122E-05 2.14812150226968E-05
9500 2.218417E-05 2.21841669358911E-05
9600 2.290096E-05 2.29009600518585E-05
9700 2.363146E-05 2.36314590119165E-05
9800 2.437551E-05 2.43755074064804E-05
9900 2.513293E-05 2.51329273578176E-05
10000 2.590352E-05 2.59035191331783E-05
10100 2.668706E-05 2.66870607902005E-05
10200 2.748331E-05 2.74833078564564E-05
10300 2.829199E-05 2.82919930449678E-05
10400 2.911283E-05 2.91128260074695E-05
10500 2.994549E-05 2.9945493127149E-05
10600 3.078966E-05 3.07896573525267E-05
10700 3.164496E-05 3.16449580740766E-05
10800 3.251101E-05 3.25110110451068E-05
10900 3.338741E-05 3.33874083483428E-05
11000 3.427372E-05 3.42737184095615E-05
11100 3.516949E-05 3.51694860595325E-05
11200 3.607423E-05 3.60742326454161E-05
11300 3.698746E-05 3.69874561926611E-05
11400 3.790863E-05 3.7908631618328E-05
11500 3.883721E-05 3.88372109966426E-05
11600 3.977262E-05 3.97726238774552E-05
11700 4.071428E-05 4.07142776581519E-05
11800 4.166156E-05 4.16615580094217E-05
11900 4.261383E-05
12000 4.357044E-05
12100 4.45307E-05
12200 4.549393E-05
12300 4.64594E-05
12400 4.742639E-05
12500 4.839414E-05
12600 4.93619E-05
12700 5.032887E-05
12800 5.129426E-05
12900 5.225726E-05
13000 5.321705E-05
13100 5.417279E-05
13200 5.512365E-05
13300 5.606876E-05
13400 5.700727E-05
13500 5.793831E-05
13600 5.886101E-05
13700 5.977448E-05
13800 6.067786E-05
13900 6.157025E-05
14000 6.245079E-05
14100 6.331858E-05
14200 6.417276E-05
14300 6.501245E-05
14400 6.583679E-05
14500 6.664492E-05
14600 6.743599E-05
14700 6.820916E-05
14800 6.89636E-05
14900 6.96985E-05
15000 7.041307E-05
15100 7.110651E-05
15200 7.177806E-05
15300 7.242698E-05
15400 7.305253E-05
15500 7.365403E-05
15600 7.423078E-05
15700 7.478212E-05
15800 7.530743E-05
15900 7.580611E-05
16000 7.627756E-05
16100 7.672126E-05
16200 7.713667E-05
16300 7.752332E-05
16400 7.788075E-05
16500 7.820854E-05
16600 7.85063E-05
16700 7.877367E-05
16800 7.901035E-05
16900 7.921604E-05
17000 7.939051E-05
17100 7.953354E-05
17200 7.964497E-05
17300 7.972465E-05
17400 7.97725E-05
17500 7.978846E-05
17600 7.97725E-05
17700 7.972465E-05
17800 7.964497E-05
17900 7.953354E-05
18000 7.939051E-05
18100 7.921604E-05
18200 7.901035E-05
18300 7.877367E-05
18400 7.85063E-05
18500 7.820854E-05
18600 7.788075E-05
18700 7.752332E-05
18800 7.713667E-05
18900 7.672126E-05
19000 7.627756E-05
19100 7.580611E-05
19200 7.530743E-05
19300 7.478212E-05
19400 7.423078E-05
19500 7.365403E-05
19600 7.305253E-05
19700 7.242698E-05
19800 7.177806E-05
19900 7.110651E-05
20000 7.041307E-05
20100 6.96985E-05
20200 6.89636E-05
20300 6.820916E-05
20400 6.743599E-05
20500 6.664492E-05
20600 6.583679E-05
20700 6.501245E-05
20800 6.417276E-05
20900 6.331858E-05
21000 6.245079E-05
21100 6.157025E-05
21200 6.067786E-05
21300 5.977448E-05
21400 5.886101E-05
21500 5.793831E-05
21600 5.700727E-05
21700 5.606876E-05
21800 5.512365E-05
21900 5.417279E-05
22000 5.321705E-05
22100 5.225726E-05
22200 5.129426E-05
22300 5.032887E-05
22400 4.93619E-05
22500 4.839414E-05
22600 4.742639E-05
22700 4.64594E-05
22800 4.549393E-05
22900 4.45307E-05
23000 4.357044E-05
23100 4.261383E-05
23200 4.166156E-05
23300 4.071428E-05
23400 3.977262E-05
23500 3.883721E-05
23600 3.790863E-05
23700 3.698746E-05
23800 3.607423E-05
23900 3.516949E-05
24000 3.427372E-05
24100 3.338741E-05
24200 3.251101E-05
24300 3.164496E-05
24400 3.078966E-05
24500 2.994549E-05
24600 2.911283E-05
24700 2.829199E-05
24800 2.748331E-05
24900 2.668706E-05
25000 2.590352E-05
25100 2.513293E-05
25200 2.437551E-05
25300 2.363146E-05
25400 2.290096E-05
25500 2.218417E-05
25600 2.148122E-05
25700 2.079222E-05
25800 2.011727E-05
25900 1.945645E-05
26000 1.880982E-05
26100 1.81774E-05
26200 1.755921E-05
26300 1.695527E-05
26400 1.636556E-05
26500 1.579003E-05
26600 1.522865E-05
26700 1.468136E-05
26800 1.414808E-05
26900 1.362871E-05
27000 1.312316E-05
27100 1.263131E-05
27200 1.215303E-05
27300 1.168819E-05
27400 1.123663E-05
27500 1.079819E-05
27600 1.037272E-05
27700 9.960018E-06
27800 9.559915E-06
27900 9.172215E-06
28000 8.796719E-06
28100 8.433221E-06
28200 8.081511E-06
28300 7.741371E-06
28400 7.412582E-06
28500 7.094919E-06
28600 6.788153E-06
28700 6.492053E-06
28800 6.206386E-06
28900 5.930917E-06
29000 5.665408E-06
29100 5.40962E-06
29200 5.163315E-06
29300 4.926254E-06
29400 4.698197E-06
29500 4.478906E-06
29600 4.268143E-06
29700 4.065671E-06
29800 3.871255E-06
29900 3.684662E-06
30000 3.50566E-06
30100 3.33402E-06
30200 3.169516E-06
30300 3.011923E-06
30400 2.861022E-06
30500 2.716594E-06
30600 2.578425E-06
30700 2.446305E-06
30800 2.320027E-06
30900 2.199387E-06
31000 2.084187E-06
31100 1.974231E-06
31200 1.869328E-06
31300 1.769291E-06
31400 1.673938E-06
31500 1.58309E-06
31600 1.496575E-06
31700 1.414221E-06
31800 1.335865E-06
31900 1.261345E-06
32000 1.190506E-06
32100 1.123197E-06
32200 1.059269E-06
32300 9.985798E-07
32400 9.409915E-07
32500 8.863697E-07
32600 8.345846E-07
32700 7.855107E-07
32800 7.390267E-07
32900 6.950155E-07
33000 6.533638E-07
33100 6.139627E-07
33200 5.767069E-07
33300 5.414952E-07
33400 5.0823E-07
33500 4.768176E-07
33600 4.471679E-07
33700 4.191941E-07
33800 3.928132E-07
33900 3.679452E-07
34000 3.445138E-07
34100 3.224455E-07
34200 3.016701E-07
34300 2.821205E-07
34400 2.637322E-07
34500 2.464438E-07
34600 2.301967E-07
34700 2.149347E-07
34800 2.006043E-07
34900 1.871544E-07
35000 1.745365E-07
35100 1.627042E-07
35200 1.516134E-07
35300 1.412221E-07
35400 1.314904E-07
35500 1.223804E-07
35600 1.13856E-07
35700 1.058829E-07
35800 9.842887E-08
35900 9.146296E-08
36000 8.495605E-08
36100 7.88805E-08
36200 7.321015E-08
36300 6.792024E-08
36400 6.298736E-08
36500 5.838939E-08
36600 5.410541E-08
36700 5.011569E-08
36800 4.640161E-08
36900 4.29456E-08
37000 3.973109E-08
37100 3.67425E-08
37200 3.396512E-08
37300 3.138513E-08
37400 2.898951E-08
37500 2.676605E-08
 Distribution Based on Standard
Historical Data Mean Deviation
Normal 17,500 5,000

(B4,E2,F2),0)

RM.INV(RAND(),E2,F2),0))

e) = Demand for Product,

o the x value of 11851.

00269002900031100332003530037400

Chart Title:
Distribution Based on Historical Data for Random Variable (Uncertain Value) = Demand for Produc
in Value) = Demand for Product, with mean = 17500 and SD = 5000.