doi: 10.1111/j.1751-3928.2010.00146.x Resource Geology Vol. 61, No.

1: 30–51

Original Article rge_146 30..51

From Predictive Mapping of Mineral Prospectivity to

Quantitative Estimation of Number of
Undiscovered Prospects

Emmanuel J. M. Carranza
Department of Earth Systems Analysis, Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente,
Enschede, the Netherlands

Abstract
This paper proposes that the spatial pattern of known prospects of the deposit-type sought is the key to link
predictive mapping of mineral prospectivity (PMMP) and quantitative mineral resource assessment (QMRA).
This proposition is demonstrated by PMMP for hydrothermal Au-Cu deposits (HACD) and by estimating the
number of undiscovered prospects for HACD in Catanduanes Island (Philippines). The results of analyses of
the spatial pattern of known prospects of HACD and their spatial associations with geological features are
consistent with existing knowledge of geological controls on hydrothermal Au-Cu mineralization in the island
and elsewhere, and are used to define spatial recognition criteria of regional-scale prospectivity for HACD.
Integration of layers of evidence representing the spatial recognition criteria of prospectivity via application of
data-driven evidential belief functions results in a map of prospective areas occupying 20% of the island with
fitting- and prediction-rates of 76% and 70%, respectively. The predictive map of prospective areas and a proxy
measure for degrees of exploration based on the spatial pattern of known prospects of HACD were used in
one-level prediction of undiscovered mineral endowment, which yielded estimates of 79 to 112 undiscovered
prospects of HACD. Application of radial-density fractal analysis of the spatial pattern of known prospects of
HACD results in an estimate of 113 undiscovered prospects of HACD. Thus, the results of the study support
the proposition that PMMP can be a part of QMRA if the spatial pattern of discovered prospects of the
deposit-type sought is considered in both PMMP and QMRA.
Keywords: evidential belief functions, fractal analysis, Fry analysis, GIS, hydrothermal Au-Cu, mineralization
controls, spatial association analysis.

1. Introduction PMMP has not been a necessary part of QMRA. Many

Predictive mapping of mineral prospectivity
(PMMP) and quantitative mineral resource assessment
(QMRA) are two distinct predictive modeling pro-
cesses with a common aim of deriving information that
is essential for strategic planning in mineral explora-
tion and development. Despite this common goal,
workers have suggested or demonstrated that PMMP
could be a part of QMRA. Drew and Menzie (1993)
introduced conceptual metrics for estimating indices
of likelihood of mineral deposit occurrence in
geologically-permissive tracts. Raines and Mihalasky
(2002) showed that weights-of-evidence (WofE) analy-
sis and weighted logistic regression are useful for

Received 5 May 2010. Accepted for publication 6 July 2010.

Corresponding author: E. J. M. CARRANZA, Department of Earth Systems Analysis, Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth
Observation (ITC), University of Twente, 7500AA Enschede, the Netherlands. Email: carranza@itc.nl

© 2010 The Author

30 Resource Geology © 2010 The Society of Resource Geology
 Prospectivity for undiscovered prospects

delineation of geologically-permissive terranes for
assessment of pluton-related deposits. Raines et al.
(2007) showed that WofE analysis is useful for delinea-
tion of geologically-permissive terranes for assessment
of porphyry-Cu deposits. Scott and Dimitrakopoulos
(2001) showed that, in a case study for porphyry
copper deposits, WofE analysis of mineral prospectiv-
ity complements the U.S. Geological Survey three-part
QMRA (Singer, 1993) by providing additional valuable
information for estimation of the number of undiscov-
ered deposits. Fallon et al. (2010) used Zipf’s Law to
estimate undiscovered gold endowment in the Plu-
tonic Marymia Greenstone Belt (Western Australia)
and then used WofE and logistic regression to map
prospective zones where undiscovered gold endow-
ment could occur in the belt.
Here, a strong link between PMMP and QMRA is
discussed to show that PMMP could be a necessary
part of QMRA. Unlike in Scott and Dimitrakopoulos
(2001), Raines and Mihalasky (2002) Raines et al. (2007)
and Fallon et al. (2010), data-driven evidential belief
functions (Carranza, 2002, 2008; Carranza & Hale,
2003) were employed here for PMMP. Unlike in Scott
and Dimitrakopoulos (2001) and Fallon et al. (2010),
one-level prediction (McCammon & Kork, 1992;
McCammon et al., 1994) and fractal analysis (cf. Raines,
2008; Zuo et al., 2009b) were employed here for estima-
tion of the number of undiscovered prospects. It is
proposed here that the spatial pattern of known pros-
pects of a deposit-type is the key to a strong link
between PMMP and QMRA. This is demonstrated in
regional-scale predictive mapping of prospectivity and
estimation of the number of undiscovered prospects
for hydrothermal Au-Cu deposits (HACD) in Catandu-
anes Island (Philippines).
2. Study area
Catanduanes Island, lying east of the southeastern leg
of Luzon Island (Fig. 1a), is a part of the Late Eocene-
Oligocene Northeast Luzon–Polillo–Catanduanes mag-
matic arc that is associated with subduction in the East
Luzon–Philippine Trenches (Mitchell & Leach, 1991). It
is not well-explored but it contains some small pros-
pects of HACD (Fig. 1b, Table 1).
The Catanduanes Formation (Fig. 1b), which forms
the stratigraphic basement of the island, is inferred to
be Jurassic and consists mostly of strongly folded indu-
rated sandstones and, in places, phyllitic schists and
conglomerates (Miranda & Vargas, 1967). Overlying
the Catanduanes Formation unconformably is the Yop
Formation. It is inferred to be Cretaceous and is com-
posed mainly of spilitic basaltic lavas with intercala-
tions of tuffaceous volcaniclastic rocks (Miranda &
Vargas, 1967). The Yop Formation underlies conform-
ably on and/or inter-tongues with the Bonagbonag
Limestone, which is of Cretaceous age and is com-
posed of stratified limestone with minor shale and

Fig. 1 (a) Regional geotectonic map

of Philippines. (b) Simplified geo-
logic map of Catanduanes Island
and locations of known prospects
of Au/Cu deposits (compiled/
adopted from Miranda & Vargas,
[1967] and JICA-MMAJ [1994]).
A, alluvium; BI, Batalay Intru-
sives; BL, Bonagbonag Lime-
stone; CF, Catanduanes
Formation; PF, Payo Formation;
SDF, Santo Domingo Formation;
VC, Viga Conglomerate; YF, Yop
Formation. Curvi-linear features
= faults; saw-teeth indicate
up-thrusted block. Numbers are
references of prospects’ descrip-
tions in Table 1. Map coordinates
are in meters (UTM projection,
zone 51).

© 2010 The Author

Resource Geology © 2010 The Society of Resource Geology 31
E. J. M. Carranza

Table 1 Known prospects of Au-Cu deposits in Catanduanes Island

Prospect† Style of deposit Host rock(s)‡ Ore minerals§ Alteration¶ Remarks
1 Vein CF, BI Cp, Py, Mal Sil More than 10 veins 0.1–1.4 m wide;
sample yield 0.06–1.445% Cu
(JICA-MMAJ, 1994)
2 Vein, CF Cp Gossanous outcrop on vertical sea cliff
disseminations (JICA-MMAJ, 1994)
3 Vein YF, BI Cp, Py, (Mo) Angular floats of quartz veins in
cultivated area; samples yield max
0.474% Cu, 0.25 g t-1 Au, 0.133% Mo
(JICA-MMAJ, 1994)
4 Vein CF, BI Py, Cp Py, Lim 3 samples: nil to 1 g t-1 Au, 0.28–8.96% Cu,
5.5–41.5 g t-1 Ag (Miranda & Vargas,
1967)
5 Vein, skarn PF, BI P, Sph, Py, Hm 1 sample: 0.964 g t-1 Au, 22 g t-1 Ag, 1.35%
Cu (JICA-MMAJ, 1994)
6 Vein YF BI Py Arg 4 samples: nil to 0.03 g t-1 Au,
0.022–0.033% Cu (JICA-MMAJ, 1994)
7 Vein CF, BI Gold in stream sediment panned
concentrates (JICA-MMAJ, 1994)
8 Vein, skarn CF, BI Epi, Gar, 5 samples: 0.63–5.93% Cu, nil to 2 g t-1 Au,
skarn 5–24 g t-1 Ag (Miranda & Vargas, 1967)
9 Veinlets CF, PF, BI Artisanal small-scale workings for Au
(JICA-MMAJ, 1994)
10 Vein CF, PF, YF, BI Mag, Cp, Py, (Sph) Sil, Py Artisanal small-scale workings for Au
(JICA-MMAJ, 1994)
11 Vein, CF Py Sil 5 samples: nil to 21.5 g t-1 Au, 0.03–0.08%
disseminations Cu (Miranda & Vargas, 1967)
12 Veinlets, PF, BI Py, (Cp) Sil Samples yield 0.06–6.8% Cu (Miranda &
disseminations Vargas, 1967); 2 samples: 0.062 and
0.156 g t-1 Au (JICA-MMAJ, 1994)
13 Vein YF Native Cu, Mal Sil, Epi 1 sample: 1.495% Cu (JICA-MMAJ, 1994)
14 Vein CF Arg 2 samples: 22.706 and 28.024 g t-1 Au
(JICA-MMAJ, 1994)
15 Vein YF Pre-WW II artisanal small-scale workings
16 Vein YF Py Sil, Py 2 samples: nil and 0.249 g t-1 Au, 0.007
and 0.026% Cu (JICA-MMAJ, 1994)
17 Vein YF, CF 1 sample: 0.01% Cu (JICA-MMAJ, 1994)

†Number identifies mineral deposit in Figure 1b.

‡See Figure 1b caption for explanation of acronyms.
§Cp, chalcopyrite; Hm, hematite; Mag, magnetite; Mal, malachite; Mo, molybdenite; Py, pyrite; Sph, sphalerite. Those in parentheses are
present in minor amounts.
¶Arg, argillization; Epi, epidotization; Lim, limonitization; Py, pyritization; Sil, silicification. Those in parentheses are less intense alteration.

siltstone (BMG, 1982). Unconformably overlying the
Catanduanes, Yop and Bonagbonag Formations is the
Payo Formation, which is inferred be of Eocene age and
is composed of the Cabugao sandstone, the Hitoma-
Payo coal measures and Sipi Limestone members
(Miranda & Vargas, 1967; BMG, 1982). Intruding the
above volcano-sedimentary formations are the Batalay
Intrusives, which consist of diorites, andesite porphy-
ries, basalts and aplites that crop out mainly in the
southern half of the island (Fig. 1b). K-Ar dating for the
intrusive rocks yielded ages of 30.2 ⫾ 1.0 to 39.5 ⫾
0.9 Ma or Eocene to Oligocene period (JICA-MMAJ,
1994). Unconformably overlying the afore-mentioned
lithologic units in the southern part of the island is the
Santo Domingo Formation. Its basal portions consist of
sandy to marly limestone with fossils of Late Miocene
age, whereas its upper portions consist of tuffaceous to
marly shale with fossils of Pliocene age (BMG, 1982).
Overlying unconformably the Payo and Catanduanes
Formations in the northeastern part of the island is the
Pleistocene Viga Conglomerate, which consists mainly
of conglomerates, with minor intercalations of sand-
stones and siltstones (BMG, 1982). Other lithologic
units that do not appear at the scale of the map in

© 2010 The Author

32 Resource Geology © 2010 The Society of Resource Geology

Figure 1b are the Buti Hill Limestone and the San
Vicente Formation, which occur in the southeastern
parts of the island. The Buti Hill Limestone of Miocene
age overlies unconformably the Bonagbonag Lime-
stone, Yop Formation and Batalay Intrusives (BMG,
1982). The San Vicente Formation of Late Miocene age
consists of conglomerates and sandstones that contain
lithic fragments of pre-existing rocks in the island
(BMG, 1982).
Seventeen prospects of Au-Cu deposits have been
identified in the island (Fig. 1b, Table 1). As observed
in the field, most of the Au-Cu deposits are vein type
although at least two of them are skarn type. There are
no detailed genetic studies of the Au-Cu deposits
although they are considered to be of hydrothermal
origin and related to the Batalay Intrusives (Miranda &
Vargas, 1967; JICA-MMAJ, 1994). The absence of per-
vasive hydrothermal alteration, except for silicification
and pyritization, and the presence of calcite in most of
the Au-Cu deposits (JICA-MMAJ, 1994) suggest that
they are replacement vein-type deposits. The calcare-
ous facies in the different host formations were likely
replaced by silica (quartz) and/or re-crystallized to
calcite accompanied by the deposition of precious and
base metals. However, compared to the general
geological/geochemical characteristics of epithermal
deposits in the Philippines (UNDP, 1987; Mitchell &
Balce, 1990; Mitchell & Leach, 1991), the Au-Cu pros-
pects in the island are probably epithermal type of
deposits.
3. Spatial analysis of geological controls
on hydrothermal Au-Cu mineralization
Analyses of the spatial pattern of known prospects of
HACD and their spatial association with certain geo-
logical features afford the possibility to define relevant
Fig. 2 (a) Log-log plots (white and
black dots) of box size versus
number of boxes containing pros-
pects of hydrothermal Au-Cu
deposits. R2 is coefficient of
regression of each fitted line.
Black dot represents breakpoint
of the fitted lines. (b) Graph of
distances and corresponding
probabilities that one occurrence
of hydrothermal Au-Cu deposit
is situated next to a known pros-
pect of hydrothermal Au-Cu
deposit.
© 2010 The Author
Resource Geology © 2010 The Society of Resource Geology
Prospectivity for undiscovered prospects
geological controls on hydrothermal Au-Cu mineral-
ization (HACM) in the study area.
3.1 Fractal analysis of the spatial pattern
of prospects
Previous works dealing with interpretations of geo-
logical controls on mineralization based on the spatial
pattern of mineral prospects have applied fractal analy-
sis (Carlson, 1991; Agterberg et al., 1993b; Blenkinsop,
1994, 1995; Cheng & Agterberg, 1995; Cheng et al.,
1996; Blenkinsop & Sanderson, 1999; Shen & Zhao,
2002; Weiberg et al., 2004; Hodkiewicz et al., 2005;
Kreuzer et al., 2007; Carranza, 2008, 2009a; Ford &
Blenkinsop, 2008; Raines, 2008; Zuo et al., 2009a, b; Car-
ranza et al., 2009; Carranza & Sadeghi, 2010; Ford &
McCuaig, 2010). The fractal dimension of the spatial
pattern of mineral prospects can be measured by the
box-counting method. In a GIS, this involves rasteriz-
ing of locations of prospects using different cell sizes
(d) and then counting in each raster map the number of
cells [n(d)] containing at least one prospect. A line
segment fitted through a log-log plot of n(d) versus d
satisfies a power-law relation (Mandelbrot, 1985):
n (δ ) = Cδ − Db (1)
where Db is box-count fractal dimension and C is con-
stant of proportionality between n(d) and d.
Two line segments fit the log-log plots of n(d) versus
d for the 17 prospects of HACD (Fig. 2a), suggesting
that spatial pattern of those prospects has two box-
count fractal dimensions: (i) for d of ⱕ10 km, Db is
0.186; and (ii) for d of >10 km, Db is 1.251. These results
are consistent with results of previous works men-
tioned in the preceding paragraph, which suggest that
spatial patterns of certain types of mineral deposits
have two box-count fractal dimensions—a local-scale
33
E. J. M. Carranza
fractal dimension and a regional-scale fractal dimen-
sion. The threshold spatial scale of 10 km is also the
distance, derived via point pattern analysis (see Boots
& Getis, (1988) for details), from every prospect of
HACD within which there is at least 0.88 probability
that one prospect of HACD is present (Fig. 2b). In
Figure 2a, the line segment for d of ⱕ10 km could be
due to “roll-off” (Blenkinsop & Sanderson, 1999)
related to (i) representation of mineral deposits as
points in small-scale maps, (ii) exclusion of non-
economic mineral occurrences around prospects from
the analysis, or (iii) the presence of undiscovered
mineral deposits. However, the Db of the line segment
for d of ⱕ10 km suggests that prospects of HACD in
the island occur in clusters at local scales of ⱕ10 km,
whereas the Db of the line segment for d of >10 km
suggest that clusters of prospects of HACD in the
island follow linear trends at regional scales of >10 km.
These interpretations can be investigated further via
Fry analysis.
3.2 Fry analysis of the spatial pattern
of prospects
Several previous works have used Fry analysis to infer
structural controls on occurrences of certain types of
mineral deposits (Vearncombe & Vearncombe, 1999,
2002; Raine & Blenkinsop, 2004; Stubley, 2004; Kreuzer,
2005; Blenkinsop & Kadzviti, 2006; Mondlane et al.,
2006; Kreuzer et al., 2007; Carranza, 2008, 2009a, Austin
& Blenkinsop, 2009; Carranza et al., 2009; Zuo et al.,
34
Fig. 3 Fry points (white dots) of
locations (black dots) of hydro-
thermal Au-Cu prospects and
rose diagrams trends of pairs of
Fry points.
2009a; Carranza & Sadeghi, 2010) and geothermal
fields (Carranza et al., 2008). Fry analysis (Fry, 1979) is a
geometrical method of spatial autocorrelation of point
objects. It involves translations (so-called Fry points) of
point objects by using each point object as origin for
translation (see Vearncombe & Vearncombe, (1999) or
Carranza (2008, 2009a) for details of creating Fry plots
for mineral deposit locations). Orientations and dis-
tances between pairs of Fry points can be used for
analysis of trends in the spatial pattern of point objects.
For analysis of trends between any two neighbouring
prospects, it is instructive to use the minimum distance
within which there is maximum probability of one
prospect next to every known prospect (Carranza,
2008, 2009a).
The Fry points of the 17 prospects of HACD show a
major WNW trend (Fig. 3). This major trend pertains
mainly to the prospects in the southern part of the
island, which are mostly hosted in the Yop Formation
(Fig. 1b). In that part of the island, the Yop Formation
follows a WNW trend, which is not necessarily the
major strike of tuffaceous volcaniclastic rocks in that
formation. Thus, the major WNW trend in the Fry plot
of the 17 prospects of HACD is unlikely due to control
on mineralization by WNW-trending geological fea-
tures. However, all pairs of Fry points of the 17 pros-
pects of HACD also show a subsidiary NNW trend,
whereas pairs of Fry points within 15 km of each other
show a subsidiary NE trend (Fig. 3). These subsidiary
trends in the Fry plot of the 17 prospects
of HACD are plausibly related to linear trends of
© 2010 The Author
Resource Geology © 2010 The Society of Resource Geology
 Prospectivity for undiscovered prospects

clustering of prospects of HACD at spatial scales of
>10 km as suggested by the box-count fractal analysis.
The Fry and box-count fractal analyses imply linear
trends in the spatial pattern of the 17 prospects of
HACD, which are plausibly due to controls by linear
geological structures such as faults/fractures. This
inference can be examined further by analysis of spatial
associations between the prospects of HACD and
various geological features in the island.
3.3 Analysis of spatial association of prospects
with geological features
Geological features or data with positive spatial asso-
ciations with mineral prospects are good spatial evi-
dence of mineral prospectivity. We used point-in-
polygon analysis (PPA) and distance distribution
analysis (DDA) to examine spatial associations of the
prospects with certain geological features and
geophysical/geochemical data (cf. Bonham-Carter,
1994; Carranza & Hale, 2002; Carranza, 2008). These
two analyses provide similar results as WofE analysis
(Bonham-Carter, 1994), but the first two analyses were
used here for examining spatial associations of the
prospects with different data sets but for calculating
weights of spatial evidence.
In PPA, spatial association (SA) of prospects (P) with
lithologic units (R) is quantified as:
SA = [ n ( P ∩ R) n ( P )] ÷ [ a ( R) a (T )]
where n(P « R) is number of P in each R, n(P) is total
number of prospects, a(R) is area of each R and a(T) is
size of study area. The natural logarithm (ln) of SA is
akin to the W+ in WofE analysis (Bonham-Carter, 1994),
whereby positive and negative W+ mean, respectively,
positive and negative spatial association between P
and R.
The prospects of HACD in the island have positive
spatial associations with the Batalay Intrusives, Yop
and Catanduanes Formations, but they have negative
spatial association with the sandstone facies of the Payo
Formation. (Table 2). Although only two of the pros-
pects occur in the Batalay Intrusives, these rocks have
strongest positive spatial association because they
occupy smaller areas compared to the other three litho-
logic formations where the prospects occur. However,
prospects of HACD in the Yop and Catanduanes For-
mations and in the sandstone facies of the Payo Forma-
tion are plausibly genetically associated with the
Batalay Intrusives because these intrusives likely acted
as heat-source controls on HACM in the island. This
supposition can be examined via DDA.
DDA involves creating graphs of cumulative relative
frequency distribution of increasing distances from
every location to a set of geological features (denoted
as PDD1) and cumulative relative frequency distribu-
tion of increasing distances from every prospect loca-
tion to the same set of geological features (denoted as
PDD2). If PDD2 plots above PDD1, there is positive
spatial association between the prospects and the geo-
logical features being examined. If PDD2 plots below
PDD1, there is negative spatial association between the
prospects and the geological features being examined.
(2) The difference PDD2–PDD1 indicates how much the
frequency of prospect occurrence (i.e. PDD2) is higher
(in case of positive spatial association) or lower (in case
of negative spatial association) than the frequency
expected due to chance (i.e. PDD1). The PDD2–PDD1
difference curve in DDA is akin to the contrast (W+–W-)

Table 2 Quantified spatial associations (SA) between prospects of hydrothermal Au-Cu deposits (P) and lithologic units (R)
Lithologic units (R) (Fig. 1b) a(R) in km2 n(P « R) SA ln (SA)
Alluvium 116.21 0 0.00 —
Viga Formation 15.07 0 0.00 —
Santo Domingo Formation 55.32 0 0.00 —
San Vicente Formation 0.98 0 0.00 —
Buti Hill Limestone 0.32 0 0.00 —
Batalay Intrusives 16.56 2 10.28 2.33
Payo Formation (limestone facies) 20.46 0 0.00 —
Payo Formation (coal-bearing facies) 1.45 0 0.00 —
Payo Formation (sandstone facies) 535.88 3 0.48 -0.73
Bonagbonag Limestone 19.93 0 0.00 —
Yop Formation 256.57 7 2.32 0.84
Catanduanes Formation 408.81 5 1.04 0.04

a(T) = 144.56 km2 and n(P) = 17. See text for explanation of variables in the table.

© 2010 The Author

Resource Geology © 2010 The Society of Resource Geology 35
E. J. M. Carranza
curve in WofE analysis (Bonham-Carter, 1994). The
higher the difference PDD2–PDD1, the stronger the
positive spatial association.
Positive spatial association exists between the pros-
pects and the Batalay Intrusives, and the positive
spatial association is strongest within 6.5 km of the
Batalay Intrusives (Fig. 4a). Within (i.e. at zero distance
to) the Batalay Intrusives there is at least 10% higher
likelihood of occurrence of HACD than would be
expected due to chance. Within 6.5 km of the Batalay
Intrusives, there is at most 36% higher likelihood of
occurrence of HACD than would be expected due to
chance. These results imply that the Batalay Intrusives
are not only host-rock controls but are also likely heat-
source controls on HACM in the island.
Based on the styles of the Au-Cu deposits (Table 1)
and based on presence of linear trends in the spatial
pattern of the 17 prospects of hydrothermal Au-Du
deposits (Fig. 3), linear geological features such as
faults/fractures are probable structural controls on
HACM in the island. Examination of this supposition
via distance distribution analysis of spatial associations
between the prospects and faults/fractures is deterred
by the paucity of faults/fractures in the regional-scale
geological map of the island (Fig. 1a). This problem
was overcome by interpreting regional-scale fault/
fractures from shaded-relief images of a digital terrain
model (DEM) of the island illuminated from eight dif-
36
Fig. 4 Difference between cumula-
tive frequency distributions of
distances from every location and
from every Au-Cu prospects
to (a) Batalay Intrusives (b)
NE-trending faults (c) N-trending
faults, and (d) NW-trending
faults.
ferent directions (NW, N, NE, E, SE, S, SW, W). Figure 5
exhibits that Catanduanes Island is cut by mostly NE-,
NNW- and NNE-trending faults/fractures and minor
NW-trending faults/fractures. For examining the
spatial association of the prospects with faults/
fractures, the NNW- and NNE-trending faults/
fractures were considered as one set (hereafter denoted
as N-trending faults/fractures) and the NE- and
NW-trending faults/fractures were considered as sepa-
rate sets.
The prospects exhibit positive spatial associations
with NE- and N-trending faults/fractures and nega-
tive spatial association with NW-trending faults
(Fig. 4b–d). These results are consistent with the
results of the Fry analysis (Fig. 3). Within 2 km of
NE-trending faults/fractures, where at least 82% of
the prospects are located, there is at most 30% higher
likelihood of hydrothermal Au-Cu deposit occurrence
than would be expected due to chance. Within 1 km of
N-trending faults/fractures, where at least 52% of the
prospects are located, there is at most 27% higher like-
lihood of occurrence of HACD than would be
expected due to chance. In contrast, within 3 km of
NW-trending faults/fractures, there is at most 22%
lower likelihood of occurrence of HACD than would
be expected due to chance. At least 94% of the pros-
pects are located at c. 4 km away from NW-trending
faults/fractures. These results imply that NE- and
© 2010 The Author
Resource Geology © 2010 The Society of Resource Geology

Fig. 5 Northwest-illuminated shaded-relief image of DEM of
Catanduanes Island and fault/fracture lineaments inter-
preted from different shaded-relief images of DEM.
N-trending faults/fractures are likely structural con-
trols on vein-style HACM in the island.
3.4 Spatial recognition criteria of
regional-scale prospectivity for Au-Cu deposits
Based on the preceding spatial association analyses and
the analyses of the spatial pattern of the prospects of
HACD in the island, regional-scale prospectivity for
HACD in the island can be defined by the following
spatial recognition criteria.
• Presence of rocks of the Catanduanes, Yop and Payo
Formations (representing host-rock controls).
• Presence of/proximity to the Batalay Intrusives (rep-
resenting host-rock and heat-source controls).
• Proximity to within 2 km of NE-trending faults/
fractures.
© 2010 The Author
Resource Geology © 2010 The Society of Resource Geology
Prospectivity for undiscovered prospects
• Proximity to within 1 km of N-trending faults/
fractures.
The absence of pervasive hydrothermal alteration,
except for silicification and pyritization adjacent to
veins, and the presence of calcite in the veins in
several of the Au-Cu deposits (JICA-MMAJ, 1994)
suggest that the deposits are replacement vein-type
deposits.
There are certainly other spatial recognition criteria
of regional-scale prospectivity for HACD in the island.
For example, subsurface indications of hydrothermally
altered rocks as well as unmapped structures or buried
plutons can be obtained though airborne or ground
magnetic and/or resistivity surveys (e.g. Hoscke &
Sexton, 2005; Porwal et al., 2006b; Murakami, 2008).
However, airborne geophysical data sets covering the
island are unavailable. Nevertheless, multi-element
(Au, Ag, As, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mo, Pb, S, Sb and Zn)
geochemical data from stream sediment samples in
Catanduanes Island are available (JICA-MMAJ, 1994).
Catchment basin analysis of the stream sediment
geochemical data (Carranza & Hale, 1997; Carranza,
2008, 2009b) results in recognition of an anomalous
multi-element (As-S-Au) geochemical signature reflect-
ing presence of HACD (Fig. 6a). To quantify spatial
association of the prospects with geochemical anoma-
lies (i.e. third principal component or PC3 scores (rep-
resenting As-S-Au signature) of the stream sediment
geochemical data, DDA was applied via cumulative
decreasing value approach rather than via the cumula-
tive increasing distance approach. Stream sediment
sample catchment basins characterized by >1.83 (or the
upper 30 percentile) PC3 scores of the geochemical
data have positive spatial association with the pros-
pects (Fig. 6b). In those stream sediment sample catch-
ment basins (Fig. 6a), there is at most 59% higher
likelihood of occurrence of HACD than would be
expected due to chance (Fig. 6b). Thus, in addition to
the above-mentioned spatial recognition criteria of
regional-scale prospectivity for HACD in the island,
the following spatial evidence was considered in this
study.
• Presence of multi-element geochemical anomalies
(representing surficial evidence).
Because the geochemical data set that was used does
not cover the entire island, the derived spatial evidence
of multi-element geochemical signature (Fig. 3a) is also
incomplete. This certainly causes bias in the results of
mineral prospectivity mapping. If an exploration data
set is incomplete but is used, however, to derive a
spatial evidence layer and integrated with other spatial
37
E. J. M. Carranza
Fig. 6 (a) Stream sediment catchment basins character-
ized by an anomalous As-S-Au geochemical signature
represented by high PC3 scores. (b) Difference
between cumulative frequency distributions of PC3
scores at every location and at every Au-Cu prospect.
38
evidence layers in order to map mineral prospectivity,
a suitable data integration method that allows repre-
sentation of uncertainty due to missing data must be
applied.
4. Predictive mapping of prospectivity
for hydrothermal Au-Cu deposits
Several GIS-based methods of PMMP are now well-
developed. Mineral prospectivity maps derived by
prudent applications of at least two different methods
to a specific area have more-or-less similar fitting-
and prediction-rates (cf. Agterberg et al., 1993a; Harris
& Pan, 1999; Singer & Kouda, 1999; Carranza, 2002,
2008; Harris et al., 2003; Agterberg and Bonham-
Carter, 2005; Porwal, 2006; Porwal et al., 2010a).
However, every GIS-based method of PMMP has
certain limitations. For example, WofE analysis
(Bonham-Carter et al., 1989; Agterberg et al., 1990) and
Bayesian network analysis (Porwal et al., 2006a;
Porwal & Carranza, 2008), are disadvantaged by lack
of conditional independence (CI) among spatial evi-
dence layers with respect to prospect locations. In this
study, lack of CI is expected between an evidence
layer based on lithologic units (Fig. 1a) and an evi-
dence layer based on proximity to Batalay Intrusives.
Other methods of PMMP (e.g. application of neural
networks (Singer & Kouda, 1996, 1999; Porwal et al.,
2003, 2004; Nykänen, 2008), support vector machines
(Porwal et al., 2010b), genetic programming
(Lewkowski et al., 2010) require sophisticated algo-
rithms that are often absent in many publicly-
available GIS software. In addition, probabilistic
neural networks are, like logistic regression (Chung &
Agterberg, 1980; Carranza & Hale, 2001; Oh & Lee,
2008), affected by missing data. In this study, some
parts of the island lack stream sediment geochemical
data (Fig. 6a). Thus, in this work, evidential belief
functions (EBFs) were used to derive and integrate
maps of indices of mineral prospectivity because of
the following reasons. EBFs provide explicit represen-
tation of evidence uncertainty as well as missing data
(An et al., 1994). EBFs can be used to represent and
integrate spatial evidence layers that lack CI among
each other with respect to prospect locations, because
according to Walley (1987, p. 1460) the “. . . Demp-
ster’s rule should not be used to combine evidence
from statistically independent observations . . .”. EBFs
can be calculated and integrated easily by using
publicly-available GIS software packages.
© 2010 The Author
Resource Geology © 2010 The Society of Resource Geology

4.1 Evidential belief functions
The Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence provides the
principle for EBFs (Dempster, 1967, 1968; Shafer, 1976).
Estimation of EBFs of spatial evidence, for whatever
purpose, always relates to a proposition. Here, EBFs of
individual spatial evidence layers were estimated by
using the locations of prospects of HACD in order to
evaluate the proposition “This location is prospective for
HACD”. The formalism of EBFs is complex, so the fol-
lowing discussion for its application here is informal
and simplified. The EBFs to be estimated are degree of
belief (Bel), degree of disbelief (Dis) and degree of
uncertainty (Unc). The values of these EBFs are not
necessarily linearly related with each other, but their
sum is always unity (i.e. Bel + Unc + Dis = 1). Bel rep-
resents belief that evidence supports a proposition. Dis
is belief that a proposition is false based on given evi-
dence; it is equal to 1–Unc–Bel. However, if Bel = 0, then
Dis = 0; that is because if there is no belief, then there is
also no disbelief but only uncertainty. Unc represents
ignorance (or doubt) that evidence supports a propo-
sition. Note that if Unc = 0, then Bel = 1–Dis or Dis =
1–Bel as in the probability theory.
4.2 Calculation and integration of indices of
hydrothermal Au-Cu prospectivity
In PMMP, a suitable unit cell size (denoted as (•)), is
chosen for dividing a study area (T) into a regular grid
in order to calculate indices of likelihood of mineral
deposit occurrence in every unit cell. The chosen (•) is
roughly related to the lateral extents of every prospect
(P). Based on the method proposed by Carranza (2008,
2009c) for objective selection of (•), it was found that
50 m is the most suitable (•) for spatial representation
of every prospect of hydrothermal Au-Cu deposit in
the island at the same 1:50,000 scale of the geological
maps in Miranda and Vargas (1967) and JICA-MMAJ
(1994). Thus, all maps used in this study were either
rasterized (i.e. gridded) or re-sampled using a cell size
of 50 m. With this cell size, total number of unit cells in
the island is N(T) = 579,258 and total number of unit
cells with one prospect each is N(P) = 17.
The maps used as spatial evidence layers for predic-
tive mapping of prospectivity for HACD in the island
are the lithologic map (Fig. 1a), maps of distances to
Batalay Intrusives, NE- and N-trending faults/fractures
and catchment basin map of anomalous geochemical
signature (Fig. 6a). The variables used for estimation of
EBFs (Bel, Dis and Unc) of every spatial evidence layer
are N(T), N(P), number of unit cells in each evidence
© 2010 The Author
Resource Geology © 2010 The Society of Resource Geology
Prospectivity for undiscovered prospects
class (N(Cij)) and number of unit cells with at least one
prospect in each evidence class (N(Cij艚P)). In each
distance-based spatial evidence layer, cell values were
classified into spatial evidence classes by using
certain percentile intervals of distances. Thus, for each
Xi (i = 1,2, . . . n number of) spatial evidence layer, each
Cij (j = 1,2, . . . ,m number of) spatial evidence class has
N(Cij) number of unit cells. In the spatial evidence layer
of anomalous geochemical signature (Fig. 6a), unit
cells with missing geochemical data were classified as
“no data”. The binary map of P is overlaid on each
classified spatial evidence map to determine N(Cij艚P)].
The equations for calculation of EBFs based on a train-
ing set of prospect locations are not given here but can
be found in Carranza and Hale (2003), Carranza et al.
(2005) or Carranza (2002, 2008).
In the island, only areas underlain by the Batalay
Intrusives, Yop Formation, Catanduanes Formation
and Payo Formation (sandstone facies) have Bel values
of >0 and Unc values of <1 (Table 3). These results are
consistent with those given in Table 2. Areas with
highest values of Bel and lowest values of Unc are those
(i) within 6.20 km of the Batalay Intrusives, (ii) within
1.81 km of NE-trending faults/fractures, and (iii)
within 2.95 km of N-trending faults/fractures. These
results are consistent with those shown in Figure 4.
Stream sediment sample catchment basins character-
ized by high PC3 scores representing anomalous
geochemical signature have highest values of Bel and
lowest values of Unc. These results are consistent with
those shown in Figure 6b. In areas without stream
sediment geochemical data (Fig. 6b), there are seven
prospects of HACD, but the calculated values of Bel
and Dis were replaced with 0 and the calculated value
of Unc was replaced with 1. The reason for this is that,
based on the principle of EBFs, if there are no explora-
tion data (i.e. no spatial evidence), then there is neither
belief nor disbelief but there is only uncertainty in
mineral prospectivity.
From each of the maps of classified spatial evi-
dence, corresponding attribute maps of EBFs were
created for integration. According to Dempster’s
(1968) rule of combination, only EBFs (Bel, Dis, Unc)
of two spatial evidence layers can be integrated each
time. The equations for combining maps of EBFs of
spatial evidence layers can be found in An et al.
(1994). The integration procedure is repeated until
maps of EBFs of all spatial evidence layers have been
used. The final map of integrated Bel (Fig. 7a) is the
basis for delineating prospective areas. The other final
maps of integrated EBFs, especially the final map of
39
E. J. M. Carranza

Table 3 Calculated EBFs of spatial evidence classes with respect to locations of prospects of hydrothermal Au-Cu deposits
[N(P) = 17 in Catanduanes Island [N(T) = 579,258]
Classes of spatial evidence N(Cij) N(Cij艚P) EBFs
Bel Dis Unc
Lithologic units
Alluvium 46,501 0 0.0000 0.0000 1.0000
Viga Formation 6003 0 0.0000 0.0000 1.0000
Santo Domingo Formation 22,180 0 0.0000 0.0000 1.0000
San Vicente Formation 411 0 0.0000 0.0000 1.0000
Buti Hill Limestone 132 0 0.0000 0.0000 1.0000
Payo Formation (limestone facies) 8111 0 0.0000 0.0000 1.0000
Payo Formation (coal-bearing facies 556 0 0.0000 0.0000 1.0000
Payo Formation (sandstone facies) 214,368 3 0.0227 0.2500 0.7273
Batalay Intrusives 6682 2 0.7098 0.2499 0.0403
Bonagbonag Limestone 7932 0 0.0000 0.0000 1.0000
Yop Formation 102,725 7 0.2018 0.2500 0.5482
Catanduanes Formation 163,658 5 0.0657 0.2500 0.6843
Distance (km) to Batalay Intrusives
0.00–0.67 29,214 4 0.4963 0.2000 0.3037
0.68–1.39 29,627 3 0.3406 0.2000 0.4594
1.40–6.20 172,997 6 0.1097 0.2000 0.6903
6.21–16.37 173,593 2 0.0267 0.2000 0.7733
16.38–42.48 173,827 2 0.0266 0.2000 0.7734
Distance (km) to NE-trending faults/fractures
0.00–0.25 58,585 3 0.3385 0.2500 0.4115
0.26–0.65 85,453 4 0.3161 0.2500 0.4339
0.66–1.81 174,657 7 0.2882 0.2500 0.4618
1.82–5.69 231,580 3 0.0572 0.2500 0.6928
5.70–10.17 28,983 0 0.0000 0.0000 1.0000
Distance (km) to N-trending faults/fractures
0.00–0.34 60,009 4 0.4808 0.2500 0.2692
0.35–1.07 113,797 5 0.3078 0.2500 0.4422
1.08–2.95 202,998 5 0.1395 0.2500 0.6105
2.96–10.40 202,454 3 0.0720 0.2500 0.6780
Anomalous geochemical signature (PC3 scores)
3.077–7.000 22,329 4 0.6367 0.3333 0.0300
1.643–3.076 44,018 4 0.3104 0.3333 0.3563
-0.048–1.642 100,091 2 0.0530 0.3334 0.6136
-2.250–-0.049 55,488 0 0.0000 0.0000 1.0000
No data 357,332 7 0.0000 0.0000 1.0000

integrated Unc (Fig. 7b), are used for complementary
spatial information.
High values of integrated Bel and low values of inte-
grated Unc coincide with most of the prospects (Fig. 7).
The patterns of intermediate to high values of inte-
grated Bel and intermediate to low values of integrated
Unc resemble the pattern of the Batalay Intrusives
(Fig. 1b) and that of sample catchment basins with high
values of anomalous geochemical signatures (Fig. 6a).
This shows (i) the strong influence of heat-source
control on hydrothermal Au-Cu deposit occurrence in
the island, and (ii) the importance of surficial
geochemical anomalies as spatial evidence of mineral
prospectivity. The patterns of intermediate to high
values of integrated Bel and intermediate to low values
of integrated Unc are intersected by NE- and
N-trending linear patterns with intermediate values of
Bel and Unc. This illustrates the importance of struc-
tural controls on hydrothermal Au-Cu deposit occur-
rence in the island. The patterns of intermediate to high
values of integrated Bel and intermediate to low values
of integrated Unc do not reflect the pattern of any litho-
logic unit. This implies that host-rock control does not
strongly influence occurrence of HACD in the island.
The patterns of low to intermediate values of integrated
Bel and intermediate values of integrated Unc represent

© 2010 The Author

40 Resource Geology © 2010 The Society of Resource Geology
 Prospectivity for undiscovered prospects

Fig. 7 Maps of indices of mineral

prospectivity based on known
prospects of hydrothermal
Au-Cu deposits in Catanduanes
Island: (a) integrated Bel; (b) inte-
grated Unc.

the contribution of geochemical anomalies. The pat-

terns of lowest value of integrated Bel and highest value
of integrated Unc represent absence of geochemical
anomalies, illustrating the usefulness of EBFs for rep-
resentation of missing spatial evidence.

4.3 Examination of map of integrated indices

of prospectivity
To examine the quality of the map of integrated Bel as
a guide for further exploration of undiscovered pros-
pects of HACD in the island, the procedure described
by Agterberg and Bonham-Carter (2005) is followed.
This involves tentative classifications of prospective
areas using cut-off values of integrated Bel at more-or-
less 5-percentile intervals. The highest value (100-
percentile) of integrated Bel results in minimum Fig. 8 Graphs of fitting-rate, prediction-rate, mean inte-
proportion [=0] of prospective areas, whereas the grated Bel, and mean integrated Unc of prospective
lowest value (0-percentile) of integrated Bel results in areas based on different cut-off values of final inte-
maximum proportion [=1] of prospective areas (Fig. 8). grated Bel (Fig. 7a).
The fitting-rate of the map of integrated Bel is then
obtained as the proportions of known prospects delin- study area in order to accommodate a large proportion
eated in tentative prospective areas. The fitting-rate of the training prospects used in PMMP. The curve of
represents goodness-of-fit between a predictive map of mean integrated Unc tells us to consider prospective
mineral prospectivity and locations of prospects used areas covering a small proportion of the study area so
in the analysis. The curves of the fitting-rate and mean that uncertainties of the chance of finding undiscov-
integrated Unc are useful guides for determining a rea- ered prospects are low. However, it is further necessary
sonable size of prospective areas for follow-up explo- to examine the map of integrated Bel in terms of
ration. The fitting-rate curve tells us to consider prediction-rate, which is a measure of the chance of
prospective areas covering large proportions of the finding undiscovered prospects.

© 2010 The Author

Resource Geology © 2010 The Society of Resource Geology 41
E. J. M. Carranza
To quantify the prediction-rate of the map of inte-
grated Bel, we followed the N-1 (or so-called jackknife)
approach proposed by Fabbri and Chung (2008) for
“blind testing” of prediction models. This involves
removing one prospect from a training set of N number
of prospects and using only N-1 prospects to create a
map of indices of mineral prospectivity, which is then
cross-validated with the prospect removed from the
analysis. Thus, N maps of mineral prospectivity indices
are created, each of which is tested against the corre-
sponding “blind” prospect removed from the analysis.
At each “blind” prospect, the corresponding mineral
prospectivity index is used as cut-off value to define
“tentative” prospective unit cells. The proportions of
“tentative” prospective unit cells delineating every
“blind” prospect are then sorted in increasing order.
The proportion of “blind” prospects in cumulative
increasing proportions of “tentative” prospective unit
cells represents the prediction-rate of the map of indices
of mineral prospectivity derived by using N prospects.
The prediction-rate of the map of integrated Bel is just
slightly, on average about 8%, lower than its fitting-rate
(Fig. 8). This means that “blind” prospects used to cross-
validate the map of integrated Bel have slightly different
geological-geochemical characteristics than the training
prospects used to create that map. Based on the map of
integrated Bel, if 20% of the island is considered pro-
spective, wherein there is highest mean integrated Bel
and lowest integrated Unc, the fitting- and prediction-
rates of that map is 76% and 70%, respectively.
The ability of the map of integrated Bel to define 20%
of the island as prospective and correctly delineate
about 70% of “blind” prospects is, in conjunction with
the map of integrated Unc, an indication that it can be
used for targetting areas where undiscovered pros-
pects of HACD may be present. However, in view of
the interpretive nature of the lineaments map (Fig. 5)
that was used as a source of some of the spatial evi-
dence layers used for PMMP, the maps of integrated
EBFs must be used with caution and they must be
updated once more accurate structural map and other
exploration data become available. Nevertheless, it will
be shown in the next section that the map of integrated
Bel can be used for estimation of undiscovered pros-
pects of HACD in the island.
5. Quantitative estimation of number of
undiscovered prospects
In the three-part quantitative QMRA proposed by
Singer (1993), the second part, after delineation of
42
geologically-permissive tracts for certain deposit-
types, involves estimation of amount of metals/
minerals and some ore characteristics based on
grade-tonnage models and the third part involves esti-
mation of the number of undiscovered deposits of the
type sought. Estimates of the number of deposits of
the type must be consistent with the grade-tonnage
model used as basis for estimating amount of metals/
minerals. Several methods exist for estimation of
undiscovered deposits, each of which represents some
form of analogy. For example, applying frequency dis-
tribution of deposits derived from well-explored areas
(Bliss, 1992; Bliss & Menzie, 1993); counting and
assigning probabilities to anomalies and mineral
occurrences (Cox, 1993); applying process constraints
and relative frequencies of related deposit-types (Drew
& Menzie, 1993); and applying mineral deposit densi-
ties (Singer et al., 2001, 2005; Singer, 2008, 2010;
Mamuse et al., 2010).
Similarly, an obvious next step after PMMP within a
geologically-permissive tract is assessment of undis-
covered mineral resources contained in predicted pro-
spective areas. This would yield supplementary
information that is essential in strategic planning of
any follow-up exploration activity. However, in this
study, two reasons prevent application of any of the
methods mentioned above to assess undiscovered
HACD in Catanduanes Island according to Singer’s
(1993) three-part approach to QMRA. Firstly, the Au-Cu
deposits in the island have not yet been classified into
any established types of mineral deposits because there
have been no detailed genetic studies of those deposits.
Secondly, comprehensive published grade-tonnage
data from Au-Cu deposits in the island are unavailable.
Accordingly, a grade-tonnage model for the type of
mineral deposits that is most similar to those of the
known HACD in the island is unsuitable for assess-
ment of undiscovered HACD in the island. However,
application of one-level prediction for estimating
undiscovered metal endowment (McCammon & Kork,
1992; McCammon et al., 1994) is demonstrated here
because, unlike the afore-mentioned methods, it is
based on a measure of favorability of mineral deposit
occurrence.
5.1 One-level prediction of undiscovered
Au-Cu prospects
One-level prediction (denoted as OLP) determines
only unknown endowment in unexplored prospective
areas (McCammon & Kork, 1992; McCammon et al.,
© 2010 The Author
Resource Geology © 2010 The Society of Resource Geology
 Prospectivity for undiscovered prospects

1994). It involves dividing an area into a grid of equal-

area cells and assumes that the datasets used are suffi-
cient to represent per cell (i) favorability of mineral
deposit occurrence, (ii) degree of exploration, and (iii)
known endowment. Favorability of mineral deposit
occurrence is defined as some quantifiable function of
the datasets such that high favorability values suggest
presence of deposits and low favorability values
suggest absence of deposits. Degree of exploration is
assessed from location maps of orebodies and drill-
holes compiled from published and unpublished
sources. Known endowment is used for calibration of
the OLP in control unit cells, in which a constant of
proportionality, C (i.e. ratio of known metal endow-
ment in control unit cells to total area of explored por-
tions of control unit cells) is estimated. The constant of
proportionality, which is assumed as a fixed but
unknown metal endowment per control unit cell, is
used to estimate total unknown metal endowment in
every unit cell in a study area.
In Catanduanes Island, assembling a comprehensive
spatial database of orebodies and drill holes is difficult
because maps of orebodies or data of locations of drill
holes in some of the prospects are either incomplete or
inaccessible. The datasets that are available for this
study are suitable only for the first assessment in the
OLP (i.e. for deriving a numerical measure of favorabil-
ity for mineral deposit occurrence) and only the pros-
pect locations are appropriate for the last two
assessments. However, it is proposed here that, Fig. 9 Binary map of prospectivity for Au-Cu deposits based
because any prospect represents an ensemble of on map of integrated Bel (Fig. 7a) and results of examina-
mineral/metal endowments (e.g. clusters of Au- and tion of the model (Fig. 8).
Cu-bearing quartz-vein deposits), the OLP can be
adapted for estimation of the number of undiscovered tivity score P = 1 is assigned. To each unprospective
Au-Cu prospects (as opposed to endowments) in the cell, a prospectivity score P = 0 is assigned. In addition,
island by using only the derived Au-Cu prospectivity every unit cell is classified as endowed (i.e. containing
index map (i.e. Fig. 7a). a known Au-Cu prospect) or unendowed (i.e. not con-
taining a known Au-Cu prospect). To each endowed
5.1.1 Representation of favorability of Au-Cu deposit
unit cell, an endowment score M = 1 is assigned. To
occurrence in OLP
each unendowed unit cell, an endowment score M = 0
OLP involves binary classification of favorability of is assigned.
mineral deposit occurrence in every cell (i.e. classifica-
tion of prospective and non-prospective cells). Based
5.1.2 Representation of exploration degree
on the examination of the map of integrated Bel, I used
a value of integrated Bel resulting in prospective cells For representation of degree of exploration (E), one can
occupying 20% of the island (Fig. 9), in which the imagine that areas of explored portions of individual
fitting- and prediction rates are 76% and 70%, respec- unit cells, including each of those that contain a pros-
tively (Fig. 8). It was considered in this study that 20% pect, decrease with increasing distance from any pros-
of the island has a reasonable size of prospective areas pect. Thus, based on the notion of mineral deposit
that could be subjected to follow-up exploration for density as a tool for estimating undiscovered deposits
Au-Cu prospects. To each prospective cell, a prospec- (Singer et al., 2001, 2005; Singer, 2008), it is proposed

© 2010 The Author

Resource Geology © 2010 The Society of Resource Geology 43
E. J. M. Carranza

here that E in every unit cell can be represented by the

density of prospects (PD) in cumulative increasing
areas defined by cumulative increasing distances (r, in
km) from every prospect. That is, the degree of explo-
ration in areas (or groups of unit cells) defined by r
from every prospect can be represented by radial pros-
pect density (Er ª PDr). In a GIS, PDr can be estimated
as the ratio of the total number of prospects [N(P)] to
the total area (in km2) of unit cells within a distance r
from every P, thus:

N (P)
Er ≈ PDr =
(cell count )r × (cell size )2 × 0.000001 (3)

where N(P) is the same total number of unit cells with

P that was used for PMMP (i.e. 17) and the constant
0.000001 converts the area of every cell from m2 to km2.
For representation of degree of exploration, the follow-
ing assumptions were further considered in this work.
Firstly, Er is neither fully complete (i.e. PDr ⫽ 1) nor
fully incomplete (i.e. PDr ⫽ 0), but varies between 1
and 0. Secondly, because PDr is used only as proxy for
Er, which is unitless (i.e. proportion of explored area in
a cell), the unit of PDr (prospect km-2) is immaterial in
the analysis. Thirdly, distances and PDr are calculated
in a grid of the same cell size (i.e. 50 m) used for
PMMP. Accordingly, one must first seek the shortest
distance from every P that yields a value of PDr that is
closest but not equal to 1, and then values of PDr are
estimated in cumulative increasing areas defined by
increasing distances from every prospect. A distance of
1 km from every P yielded a value of PDr that is closest
but not equal to 1 (Fig. 10a). Within 1 km of every
prospect, the degree of exploration is at most 0.36
(Fig. 10a), which is consistent with the fact that Cat-
anduanes is not well-explored. At distances >1 km
from every prospect, estimates of PDr decrease
abruptly and then monotonically (Fig. 10a). The spatial
distribution of estimates of PDr reflects that areas
proximal to known prospects are relatively more
explored than distal areas (Fig. 10b).

5.1.3 Control unit cells for calibration of OLP

OLP assumes that the geology in the control unit cells
are representative of the geology associated with Fig. 10 Degree of exploration (a) derived as prospect density
mineral deposits of the type sought (McCammon & in areas defined by distance from prospects and (b)
Kork, 1992). The choice of control unit cells in OLP is depicted in a map.
subjective (i.e. based on expert opinion) and, thus, dif-
ferent choices of control unit cells are likely to yield
different estimates of the number of undiscovered
prospects. To avoid this problem in this work: (i) a

© 2010 The Author

44 Resource Geology © 2010 The Society of Resource Geology

neighbourhood of unit cells containing and surround-
ing every P was used to represent control unit cells, (ii)
OLP was calibrated by using different sets of control
unit cells defined by certain values of PDr, and (iii) the
final estimate of the number of undiscovered prospects
was derived as the average of estimates based on every
set of control unit cells. This approach was followed
because estimates of the number of undiscovered pros-
pects are a function of not only geology and mineral
prospectivity but also degrees of exploration (cf.
McCammon & Kork, 1992).
5.1.4 Calibration of OLP parameters
In the study area, there are k (= 1,2, . . . ,l) number of
unit cells. The two binary classifications described
above result in four classes of unit cells, namely:
prospective-endowed (pM); prospective-unendowed
( pM ); unprospective-endowed ( pM); unprospective-
unendowed ( pM). The total number of Au-Cu
prospects [N(TPCI)] in Catanduanes Island is then
defined as:
N (TPCI )) = known prospects + unknown prospects
l ⎛ q
⎞ et al. [1994], Carranza et al. [2009] or Carranza and
= ∑ Mk + ⎜ C × ∑ pp M (1 − PDp M )⎟
(4)
k =1 ⎝ p M =1 ⎠ estimate of the number of undiscovered prospects (i.e.
where Mk is endowment score in every kth unit cell,
pp M is prospectivity score and PDp M is explored por-
tions (i.e. PDr) of individual pM (= 1,2, . . . ,q number
of) unit cells. The first term in the right-hand side of
Equation 4 is total number of known prospects in unit
cells regardless of their prospectivity scores. The
second term in the right-hand side of Equation 4 means
that the number of undiscovered prospects is derived
only from unexplored portions (i.e. 1 − PDp M ) of pM
cells, since ppM = 0 and, thus, ppM (1 − PDpM ) = 0. Thus,
the OLP assumes absence of undiscovered prospects in
explored portions of individual pM cells (McCammon
& Kork, 1992). The constant C in Equation 4 is derived
from control unit cells, in which the number of known
prospects [N(KPc)known] is the sum of endowment scores
in c (=1,2, . . . d number of) control unit cells (cf.
McCammon & Kork, 1992):
d
N ( KPc )known = ∑ Mc = 17 (5)
c =1
The number of known prospects in control unit cells
can be calculated as a function of C, p and PD of each
control unit cell, thus:
© 2010 The Author
Resource Geology © 2010 The Society of Resource Geology
Prospectivity for undiscovered prospects
d
N ( KPc )calculated = C × ∑ pc PDc (6)
c =1
By setting N(KPc)known = N(KPc)calculated, Equations 5 and 6
can be solved to derive C.
The assumption and application of a calibration
constant C to every unit cell in a study area introduces
Type I and Type II errors (McCammon & Kork, 1992;
McCammon et al., 1994). Type I error pertains to pM
unit cells, whereas Type II error pertains to pM unit
cells. Like C, estimates of Type I and Type II errors
associated with C are derived from control unit cells.
Formulas for estimation of Type I and Type II errors
can be found in McCammon and Kork (1992), McCam-
mon et al. (1994), Carranza et al. (2009) or Carranza and
Sadeghi (2010). An area-normalized error measure
(ANEM) is then defined as the absolute difference
between estimates of Type I and Type II errors (McCam-
mon & Kork, 1992). Finally, by using the ANEM, the
total error associated with C for estimation of the
number of undiscovered prospects in pM (=1,2, . . . ,s
number of) unit cells in a study area is obtained (see
formula in McCammon & Kork, [1992], McCammon
Sadeghi [2010]) and then subtracted from the related
the second term of the right-hand side of Eqn 4).
5.1.5 Results of OLP
Based on values of PD (Fig. 10), the OLP was calibrated
to estimate the number of undiscovered prospects
using six sets of control unit cells. Application of cali-
brated C over-estimates the number of undiscovered
prospects, which are corrected for total error (Table 4).
Different sets of control unit cells result in different
estimates of the number of undiscovered prospects
(Table 5). Control unit cells with extremely low to mod-
erate PD (i.e. ⱖ0.02) result in a high number of undis-
covered prospects because such control unit cells cover
large areas where many prospects are possibly undis-
covered. Control unit cells with low to moderate PD
(i.e. ⱖ0.06) result in a low number of undiscovered
prospects because such control cells cover moderately-
sized areas where many prospects probably have
already been discovered. Control unit cells with mod-
erate degrees PD (i.e. ⱖ0.20) result in a high number of
undiscovered prospects because such control unit cells
cover small areas and many prospects are still possibly
undiscovered outside those areas.
45
E. J. M. Carranza

Table 4 Example of calibration of OLP parameters using known prospects and control unit cells with degrees of exploration
ⱖ6% (i.e. with PD ⱖ 0.06), and corresponding estimate of number of unknown prospects based on the calibrated OLP
parameters. Values in bold pertain to all control unit cells
Calibration of OLP parameters:
Variables in control unit cells Data and/or results in control unit cells with PD ⱖ 0.06
Predicted prospectivity Prospective (p) Unprospective (p )
Endowment classification Endowed (M) Unendowed (M ) Endowed (M) Unendowed (M )
Number of control unit cells 13 45,764 4 39,088
Number of known prospects 13 — 4 —
Total number of known prospects 17
SPD of control unit cells 4.65 8277.40 1.43 5425.44
Total SPD of control unit cells 13,708.92
Sp ¥ PD of control unit cells 4.65 8277.40 0 0
Total Sp ¥ PD of control unit cells 8282.05
C (= 17 ⫼ 8282.05) 0.0021
Type I error (=C*8277.40 ⫼ 13,708.92) — 0.0013 — —
Type II error (=C*0 ⫼ 13,708.92) — — 0.000 —
ANEM 0.0013
Application of calibrated OLP parameters:
Variables in study area Data and/or results in all unit cells in the study area
Predicted prospectivity Prospective (p) Unprospective (p )
Endowment classification Endowed (M) Unendowed (M ) Endowed (M) Unendowed (M )
Number of unit cells 13 117,254 4 461,986
Number of known endowed unit cells 13 — 4 —
Sp(1 - PD) in pM cells — 107,141.79 — —
Uncorrected number of undiscovered prospects — 225 — —
in pM cells = [C ¥ Sp(1 - PD)]
Total error = [ANEM ¥ (117,254 ¥ 10,7141.79)1/2] — 146 — —
Corrected number of undiscovered prospects — 79 — —

Table 5 Summary of OLP of number of undiscovered prospects based on calibrated values of C and ANEM obtained from
different sets of control unit cells with degrees of exploration (i.e. values of PD) greater than or equal to a certain threshold
PD of control unit cells C ANEM Corrected number of
undiscovered prospects
ⱖ0.02 0.0017 0.0008 93
ⱖ0.04 0.0018 0.0010 82
ⱖ0.06 0.0021 0.0013 79
ⱖ0.08 0.0022 0.0014 80
ⱖ0.10 0.0028 0.0019 88
ⱖ0.20 0.0039 0.0027 112
Average corrected number of undiscovered prospects = 89

Thus, it is important to calibrate C and ANEM by 5.2 Radial-density fractal analysis of

using different sets of control unit cells. On average, undiscovered deposits
the results of OLP suggest that there are still 89 undis-
Radial-density fractal analysis of the spatial pattern of
covered prospects of HACD in the island. Validation of
mineral deposits of a certain type can be used for esti-
this result by further mineral exploration would take a
mation of undiscovered deposits (Raines, 2008). The
sufficiently long time to find out if estimates of the
radial-density fractal dimension of the spatial pattern
number of undiscovered hydrothermal Au-Cu pros-
of point objects can be derived according to the follow-
pects in the island based on the OLP are accurate.
ing power-law relation (Mandelbrot, 1983):
However, another empirical method for estimation of
the number of undiscovered prospects can be applied
to cross-check the results of OLP. d = Cr Dr −2 (7)

© 2010 The Author

46 Resource Geology © 2010 The Society of Resource Geology

Fig. 11 Log-log plot (white and black dots) of prospect
density versus distance r from every prospect (Eqn 3).
The individual lines fitted by least-squares method
through the plots satisfy the power-law relation in
Equation 11. R2 is coefficient of regression of each fitted
line. Black dot represents breakpoint of the fitted lines.
where d is the density of point objects in areas defined
by circles of radius r from each point object, C is the
constant of proportionality between d and r, and Dr is
the radial-density fractal dimension of the spatial
pattern of the point objects. Note therefore that the C in
Equation 7 is different from the C in Equation 4, but d
in Equation 7 is computationally equivalent to PDr in
Equation 3. A log-log plot of d versus r, or a log-log plot
of PDr versus r, allows estimation of the radial-density
fractal dimensions of a set of point objects, which are
roughly similar to the box-count fractal dimensions (cf.
Carlson, 1991).
If the plot of PDr versus r in Figure 10a is converted
into a log-log plot (Fig. 11), the latter can be fitted with
two line segments with a common breakpoint at r =
6.6 km. Thus, the log-log plot of PDr versus r suggests
two radial-density fractal dimensions of the spatial
pattern of the hydrothermal Au-Cu prospects: Dr =
0.268 for r ⱕ 6.6 km and Dr = 0.749 for r > 6.6 km. These
two radial-density fractal dimensions have the same
interpretations as the two box-count fractal dimensions
derived earlier (Fig. 2a). Thus, the Dr for r of ⱕ6.6 km
is probably due to “roll-off” effect (Blenkinsop &
Sanderson, 1999) or it likely represents geological
controls on HACM at local-scales, whereas the Dr for
r of >6.6 km likely represents geological controls on
HACM at regional-scales (cf. Agterberg et al., 1993b;
Raines, 2008; Zuo et al., 2009a).
© 2010 The Author
Resource Geology © 2010 The Society of Resource Geology
Prospectivity for undiscovered prospects
In relation to QMRA, the radial-density power-law
equations of line segments fitted by least-squares
method through a log-log plot of PDr versus r can be
used to estimate the total number of prospects (cf.
Raines, 2008; Zuo et al., 2009b). That is, by setting PDr in
Equation 3 equal to d in Equation 11, the total number
of prospects, N(P)r, within areas defined by distance r
(in km) from every known prospect of deposit-type,
can be estimated as (adapted from Raines, [2008]):
N ( P )r = Cr Dr −2 × ( cell count )r × ( cell size ) × 0.000001 (8)
2
where the constant 0.000001 converts the area of every
unit cell from m2 to km2. By using the breakpoint at r =
6.6 km as regional-scale reference and, thus, by using
in Equation 8 the right-hand side of the power-law
equations for the two line segments in Figure 11, the
following estimates are derived:
N ( P )r ≤ 6.6 = 0.327 × 6.6 −1.732 × [( cell count )r ≤ 6.6 ] ×
50 2 × 0.000001 = 63; and
N ( P )r > 6.6 = 0.1 × 6.6 −1.080 × [( cell count )r > 6.6 ] ×
50 2 × 0.000001 = 68.
These results suggest that there are 63 and 68 prospects
of HACD, respectively, within and beyond 6.6 km of
every known prospect of the same deposit-type and
therefore the total number of prospects of this deposit-
type in the island is 130. Since there are 17 known
prospects of HACD, the results of radial-density fractal
analysis suggest there are still 113 undiscovered pros-
pects of HACD.
5.3 Discussion
In one-level prediction, high uncorrected estimates
(Table 5) are due not only to assumption of fixed metal
endowment per control unit cell but also to binary
classification of mineral prospectivity. The latter is con-
sidered in one-level prediction because indices of pro-
spectivity (e.g. integrated Bel) tend to lack correlation
with presence/absence of mineral deposits, although
locations at/around prospects generally coincide with
higher indices of prospectivity compared to locations
away from mineral deposits (cf. McCammon et al.,
1994). However, because those two assumptions in
OLP are certainly not true, the method allows for esti-
mation and correction of errors associated with them.
In Catanduanes, the average estimate of the number
of undiscovered prospects of HACD obtained via
47
E. J. M. Carranza
one-level prediction is about 27% lower than the esti-
mate obtained via radial-density fractal analysis. The
main reason for this is that the average estimate
obtained via one-level prediction pertains only to pro-
spective unit cells based on the results of the predictive
mapping of mineral prospectivity, whereas the
estimate obtained via radial-density fractal analysis
pertains to all unit cells. Thus, in Catanduanes, the
different results obtained via one-level prediction and
radial-density fractal analysis suggest that 24 undis-
covered prospects of HACD possibly exist in areas
predicted non-prospective areas that were used in
the application of one-level prediction. These non-
prospective areas, which have high uncertainty of
prospectivity for HACD (Figs 7, 8), are likely not
completely barren of this type of deposits.
Although one-level prediction and radial-density
fractal analysis provide comparable estimates of the
number of undiscovered prospects, the former is
advantageous because it considers mineral prospectiv-
ity as a function of geology and locations of prospects
whereas the latter considers only locations of pros-
pects. Thus, mineral prospectivity mapping and one-
level prediction result in geologically-sound estimates
of the number of undiscovered prospects. However, it
is useful to apply radial-density fractal analysis to
cross-validate the results of the one-level prediction.
Locations of known prospects of the deposit-type
sought, which are a function of not only geology but
also of mineral exploration, provide proxy measures
for degree of exploration that can be used in one-level
prediction of the number of undiscovered prospects.
Estimates of prospect density (Eqn 3) and radial-
density fractal dimensions (Eqn 8), which relate to the
spatial pattern of prospects, carry, however, some
unquantifiable errors derived from mineral exploration
(e.g. missed prospects due to false-negative evidence
[or Type II error]). In addition, in a poorly-explored
area, like Catanduanes, the spatial pattern of known
prospects of the deposit-type sought is probably not
representative of the spatial pattern of known and
undiscovered prospects of the deposit-type sought.
Therefore, estimates obtained in this study are likely
conservative and must be revised as up-to-date data
about mineral prospects and exploration data sets
become available.
Implicit in one-level prediction is the assumption
that undiscovered and discovered prospects have
analogous geology. Implicit in both one-level predic-
tion and radial-density fractal analysis is the assump-
tion that undiscovered and discovered prospects have
48
analogous spatial patterns. These assumptions of
analogy between undiscovered and discovered pros-
pects are also inherent in a variety of existing methods
for quantitative mineral resource assessment (cf. Bliss,
1992; Bliss & Menzie, 1993; Cox, 1993; Drew & Menzie,
1993; Singer et al., 2001, 2005; Singer, 2008; Mamuse
et al., 2010). However, the geology and spatial pattern
of undiscovered prospects of the type sought may
differ, to some extents, from those of discovered pros-
pects. Therefore, predictive maps of mineral prospec-
tivity and estimates of the number of undiscovered
prospects derived by any existing quantitative tech-
nique must be updated in the light of advances in geo-
logical knowledge or exploration techniques that will
be made in the future. This is particularly important in
Catanduanes Island where detailed genetic studies of
the Au-Cu deposits are lacking.
6. Conclusions
Catanduanes Island is not well-explored for hydrother-
mal Au-Cu deposits. The results of the present study
suggest that there are still substantial undiscovered
prospects for hydrothermal Au-Cu deposits. Analyses
of the spatial pattern of known prospects and analysis
of their spatial associations with different sets of evi-
dential data layer are useful in predictive mapping of
mineral prospectivity, the results of which can be used
for estimation of the number of undiscovered pros-
pects via the one-level prediction. Prospect density,
which is a function of the spatial pattern of known
prospects, can be used as proxy data for degree of
exploration of individual cells for the application of the
one-level prediction. One-level prediction and radial-
density fractal analysis provide comparable estimates
of the number of undiscovered prospects. The present
study shows therefore that (i) analysis of the spatial
pattern of known prospects provides a link between
predictive mapping of mineral prospectivity and quan-
titative mineral resource assessment, and therefore (ii)
predictive mapping of mineral prospectivity can be a
part of quantitative mineral resource assessment.
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