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Spatiotemporal hydroclimatic characteristics of arid and semi-arid river basin

under climate change: a case study of Iraq

Article  in  Arabian Journal of Geosciences · July 2022

DOI: 10.1007/s12517-022-10548-x

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Arabian Journal of Geosciences (2022) 15:1260
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-022-10548-x

ORIGINAL PAPER

Spatiotemporal hydroclimatic characteristics of arid and semi‑arid

river basin under climate change: a case study of Iraq
Fouad H. Saeed1   · Mahmoud S. Al‑Khafaji2   · Furat A. Al‑Faraj3 

Received: 27 December 2021 / Accepted: 29 June 2022

© Saudi Society for Geosciences 2022

Abstract
Climate change has potential effects on future hydrologic characteristics of arid and semi-arid river basins. The Lesser Zab
River in Iraq was selected as a representative example of arid and semi-aird river basin. In this paper, the minimum and
maximum temperatures (Tmin and Tmax) and precipitation (Pcp) for Lesser Zab Basin (LZB) were projected using Long
Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG) considering three future periods P1 (2021–2040), P2 (2041–2060),
and P3 (2061–2080) under five global climate models (GCMs) and three representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6,
4.5, and 8.5). The projected weather variables were inserted into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the same
scenarios and future periods. The results showed that LZB is expected to suffer from hot weather and drought by end of P3
due to an increase in Tmin by 16.78, 27.9, and 44.05%; an increase in Tmax by 8.4, 13.67 and 21.5%; and a decrease in Pcp
by 0.07, 5.26, and 5.31%, under RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively. Moreover, the projected evapotranspiration also tended
to increase by 5.52, 8.37, and 12.61% under RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively. Consequently, the projected streamflow of
LZB is expected to decrease by 16.7, 27.15, and 31.23% under RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively. The paper introduced
novel findings based on LARS-WG and SWAT simulations that contribute to a better understanding of future climate and
hydrologic trends in arid and semi-arid river basins. The study outcomes assist sustainable management of water resources
and decision-making process involved in climate change adaptation policies.

Keywords  SWAT​ · LARS-WG · Climate change adaptation · Arid and semi-arid basins · Lesser Zab River · Sustainable
management of water resources

Introduction future (IPCC 2014; Ostad-Ali-Askar et al. 2018; Lange

2019). Global warming associated with to increase in
According to the observation in the last century, the mean greenhouse emissions is mainly responsible to change in
temperature raised by 0.9 °C (Harris et al. 2014; Fawzy climate patterns (Lionello and Scarascia 2018; Ogunbode
et al. 2020) and this trend are expected to continue in the et al. 2020; Bein et al. 2020). Furthermore, the intensity,
frequency, and duration of extreme climate events are sig-
Responsible Editor: Broder J. Merkel nificantly altered due to changes in climate patterns (Hage-
mann et al. 2013; Lu et al. 2020). The increase in sur-
* Furat A. Al‑Faraj face air temperature in the Middle East and North Africa
f.al-faraj@bolton.ac.uk (MENA) is much faster than the global average (Lelieveld
Fouad H. Saeed et  al. 2012; Salman et  al. 2018a, 2018b) and extreme
bce.19.06@grad.uotechnology.edu.iq drought events become more frequent and intensive (Evans
Mahmoud S. Al‑Khafaji 2009; Awchi and Kalyana 2017; Lange 2019). The climate
mahmoud.s.al-khafaji@ced.nahrainuniv.edu.iq of the Euphrates and Tigris River Basins (ETB) (Iraq,
1
Civil Engineering Department, University of Technology, Syria, Iran, and Turkey) tends to become hotter and drier
Baghdad, Iraq (Awchi and Kalyana 2017; Salman et al. 2018a, 2018b;
2
Civil Engineering Department, Al-Nahrain University, Constantinidou et al. 2019). Consequently, literature which
Baghdad, Iraq dealt with ETB indicated that the evapotranspiration tends
3
School of Engineering, University of Bolton, Bolton, UK to increase by 30% (Al-Faraj et  al. 2014; Bucchignani

13
Vol.:(0123456789)
 1260   Page 2 of 12
et al. 2018) and precipitation tends to decrease by around
20% (Najafi and Moazami 2016; Zakhem and Kattaa 2016;
Soltani et al. 2016; Khalilian and Shahvari 2018).
Some of the previous works were focused on the sus-
tainable environmental system against the negative impact
of climate change (Owusu and Asumadu-Sarkodie 2016;
Saeed and Al-khafaji 2021) and other researchers investi-
gated the uncertainty of projected climate based on regional
and global climate model techniques (Shepherd et al. 2018;
Fletcher et al. 2019; Her et al. 2019). Artificial intelligence is
becoming more attractive to simulate the current and future
alterations in climate and hydrologic sectors (Rezaei and
Vadiati 2020; Fischer et al. 2021). However, the statistically
based models are efficient tools in predicting future climate
(Chokkavarapu and Mandla 2019; Duethmann et al. 2020).
Moreover, physically based hydrological models (Krysanova
and Srinivasan 2015). Sha et al. 2019 projected the minimum
temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax) and pre-
cipitation (Pcp) of northern China using LARS-WG with
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)
and 14 general circulation models (GCMs) for the periods
2041–2060 and 2061–2080. The results indicated that an
ensemble approach is required to eliminate the uncertainty
of GCMs and the research shows that snow will be less and
rainfall could be dominated. Kavwenje et al. 2021 dem-
onstrated that the projected Pcp for the period 2041–2070
and 2071–2100 in the Shire River Basin in Malawi could
have negative and positive trends under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5
and only positive trend for the projected temperature. Al-
Mukhtar and Qasim 2019 found an increasing (decreasing)
trend in projected Tmin and Tmax (precipitation) until the
year 2100 in 12 metrological stations located in Iraq using
RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Uniyal et al. 2015 applied SWAT
in Upper Baitarani River Basin, India. The results showed
that the decline in projected streamflow could be 2.5 and
11% due to an increase in temperature between 1 and 5°C.
Parajuli et al. 2016 connected the LARS-WG with SWAT to
quantify the impact of climate change on future streamflow
of Big Sunflower River Watershed, USA. The results showed
that the average Tmax tends to increase by 4.8 °C and no
significant change in Pcp pattern was found also the stream-
flow is slightly decreased. Bhatta et al. 2019 evaluated the
future simulated streamflow of Tamor River Basin, Nepal
under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5
and RCP8.5). The results indicated that Tmin (Tmin) tends
to increase by 4 °C (5.5 °C) and decrease in Pcp by 4.5%.
Therefore, the streamflow could decline by 8.5% under
RCP8.5 at the end of the twenty-first century. Aawar and
Khare 2020 assessed the impact of climate change on the
Kabul River sub-basin watershed, Afghanistan, using SWAT
model. The analysis indicated that streamflow is signifi-
cantly impacted by climate change. Javadinejad et al. 2021
concluded that water demand in arid and semi-arid regions
13
Arab J Geosci (2022) 15:1260
western of Iran tends to increase as a response to climate
change.
In Iraq, a few studies focused on the response of the
hydrologic system to the change of climate pattern under
various scenarios of climate change of low, moderate, and
high greenhouse emissions. Abbas et al. 2016; Abbas et al.
2017; Osman et al. 2019; Al-Khafaji and Al-Chalabi 2019
determined that the streamflow of the Tigris River and its
tributaries are expected to decline by about 60% after the
mid-century. Considering the period from 1964 to 2013,
results found by Ali et al. 2019 indicated a downward trend
in streamflow of Lesser Zab River with the highest and low-
est decrease by −5.09 and −1.06 ­m3/month in April and
November, respectively. Using SWAT model, Abbas et al.
2017; Nasser Hilo et al. 2019 found a decrease in the pro-
jected streamflow of Lesser Zab River with approximately
5 to 20% of the projected streamflow during the current
century.
The aim of this paper is to evaluate the future characteris-
tics of climate and hydrologic of LZB in a changing climate.
For this purpose, the recorded Pcp, Tmin, and Tmax in the
Reference Period (RP) (from 1/1/1990 to 31/12/2019) were
projected by LARS-WG into three future periods 2021–2040
(P1), 2041–2060 (P2), and 2061–2080 (P3) under RCPs 2.6,
4.5, and 8.5 and GCMs. The current and projected climate
variable was inserted into SWAT hydrologic model to quan-
tify the main features of hydrology in LZB. This process
provides a novel method to quantify the impact of future
climate on hydrologic characteristics of LZB while other
previous methods focused mainly on streamflow only rather
than analyzing the impacts of climate change on future evap-
otranspiration and snowmelt which are the most important
segments of streamflow. Moreover, the previous works had
not introduced the impact of evapotranspiration and snow-
melt alteration on quantity and timing of streamflow. This
paper introduced novel outcomes in terms of analyzing the
spatiotemporal alteration of Tmin, Tmax, and Pcp to per-
form a comprehensive analysis of future climate over LZB
as an example of an arid and semi-arid river basin. Moreo-
ver, this paper considered a wide range of greenhouse emis-
sions including RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 based on five GCMs to
eliminate the uncertainty of the projected variables.
Materials and method
Study area
Lesser Zab river is one of the most important tributar-
ies of the Tigris River, which originates from the Zagros
Mountains in western Iran at an altitude of 3000 m.a.s.l.
and joins the Tigris River in Iraq with a total length of 374
km (Al-Saady et al. 2016). The Lesser Zab Basin (LZB) is
Arab J Geosci (2022) 15:1260 Page 3 of 12  1260
extended between 33.216° and 35.833°N and 44.500° and
46.833°E44.500 and 46.833 E (Al-Faraj and Al-Dabbagh
2015). The total drainage area of LZB is 22000 k­ m2; this
area is partly located inside Iran with 23% of the total drain-
age area, while the other part (77%) lies inside Iraq (Al-Faraj
and Al-Dabbagh 2015). The basin is located in the arid and
semi-arid region of Iraq (Alwan et al. 2019) and the Medi-
terranean climate, steppe climate, and continental desert cli-
mate zones are the dominant climate in the basin (Salman
et al. 2018a, 2018b). Most of the precipitation over LZB is
recorded in the Iranian part of the Zagros Mountains with
over 1000 mm/y and less than 200 mm/y in the region of
confluence with the Tigris River. Around 90% of Pcp occurs
from November to April and the rest months are consid-
ered as dry (Salman et al. 2018a, 2018b). Pasture and winter
plants are dominated in LZB with 82.7% of the total area fol-
lowed by forestland (15.6%), shrubland (1.6%), and urbani-
zation (0.1%) (Ezz-Aldeen et al. 2018). The LZB is divided
into three parts due to dam construction. The Dukan Dam
Watershed (DDW) is the upper part of LZB which is located
between the most upstream segment of Lesser Zab River in
Iran to Dukan Dam in Iraq, which extends over an area of
11700 ­km2; this part has the most contribution to streamflow
with an average inflow to Dukan Reservoir of around 110
­m3/s (Al-Khafaji et al. 2020). The Dibis Barrage Watershed
is the middle part of LZB which is located between Dukan
Dam and Dibis Barrage in Iraq with a drainage area of 6234
­km2 and contributed by 19.8 ­m3/s of streamflow. The third
part of 2110 ­km2 is extended over the area downstream of
Dibis Barrage and the confluence with Tigris River; this part
of the basin has no considerable amount of streamflow and
is excluded from this study. The upstream segment of the
basin is contributed by the most of streamflow of LZB which
Fig. 1  Location map of Lesser
Zab River
is located inside Iran since the basin considers as shared
river basin (Al-Khafaji et al. 2020) and competition for water
recourses is raised in the last few years. Figure 1 shows the
location map of the Lesser Zab River.
Weather generator model
LARS-WG model is a stochastic-based weather simulation
model, conventionally used for weather variables projection
at a single station level (Semenov and Barrow 2002). Based
on recorded weather variables, the model is able to project
the Pcp, Tmin, Tmax, and solar radiation under RCPs 2.6,
4.5, 6, and 8.5 until the year 2100 using 20 years of time step
for short, middle, and terms of future periods.
For Pcp, the model simulates the dry and wet series alter-
natively, where the wet day is considered with > 0 of pre-
cipitation. The model simulates the interval of wet or dry
conditions randomly based on semi-empirical distribution.
For temperature, the model predicts these variables stochas-
tically based on mean and standard deviation considering
dry and wet conditions of the day of simulation. LARS-WG
utilize an autocorrelation coefficient with independent semi-
empirical distribution to describe solar radiation variation on
dry and wet days (Semenov and Barrow 2002).
Hydrologic model
SWAT is a semi-distributed physically based hydrologic
model developed by the US Department of Agricultural
(USDA) to predict the runoff, sediment, point source,
and groundwater for complex watersheds under various
practices of land management (Arnold et al. 2012). The
model divided the watershed into sub-basins based on the
13
 1260   Page 4 of 12
topographical situation. SWAT further divided the water-
shed into hydrologic response units (HRUs) considering
unique soil, land cover, and slope (Neitsch et al. 2011).
The model utilizes the balance equation (Eq. 1) at each
HRU for runoff simulation.
t
∑
(1)
( )
SW t = SW o + Rday + Qsur − Ea − Wseep − Qgw
i=1
where SWt is the available water at the end of the storm
(mm), SWo is the available water before the storm (mm), Rday
is the total quantity of precipitation (mm), Qsur is the quan-
tity of surface runoff (mm), Ea is the quantity of water lost by
evapotranspiration (mm), Wseep is the quantity entering the
vadose zone from the water stored by soil profile (mm), and
Qgw is the quantity of return water (mm) and t is time (days).
SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Programs (SWAT-
CUP) is an automatic program developed by (Abbaspour
et al. 2007) especially for SWAT hydrologic model for cali-
bration, validation, and sensitivity analysis. The program
employed the iteration processes to capture the observation
within 95% of the simulation (Abbaspour et al. 2015).
Input data
The required spatial data including Digital Elevation Mod-
els (DEMs) were extracted from Shuttle Radar Topography
Mission (SRTM) with 90 m of spatial resolution, the data
downloaded from (https://​earth​explo​rer.​usgs.​gov/) (excess
date 12/5/2021). The land cover-use (LCU) data of 500 m
spatial resolution were obtained from Moderate Resolution
Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) (Muchoney 2008;
Al-Khafaji et al. 2020). These data were downloaded from
(https://​earth​explo​rer.​usgs.​gov/) (access date 30/5/2012).
The soil data of 1:50000 of spatial scale were provided by
Food Agricultural Organization (FAO). These data contain
two layers of soil: 0–30 cm and 30–100 cm and other vari-
ables such as permeability, water content, and textures which
are necessary for hydrologic simulation. The FAO soil data
were downloaded from (https://​www.​fao.​org) (access date
15/5/2021).
The daily Pcp data for the period from 1/1/1990 to
31/12/2019 for two meteorological stations located inside
Iraq (DBW) were provided by the Iraqi Meteorological
Organization and Seismology (IMOS). The Pcp, Tmin,
Tmax, wind speed, relative humidity, and solar radiation for
DDW for three meteorological stations (one station inside
Iraq and two stations inside Iran) and Tmin, Tmax, wind
speed, relative humidity, and solar radiation for DBW for
the same period were obtained from global weather data
Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) (Fuka et al.
2014; Tolera et al. 2018).
13
Arab J Geosci (2022) 15:1260
The daily observed streamflow for the period from
1/1/1990 to 31/12/2019 was provided by National Center
for Water Resources Management, Iraq (NCWRM).
Methodology
The LZB was modelled by using SWAT based on dam loca-
tions and the topography of the basin. Therefore, the DDW
and DBW were simulated independently and the lower seg-
ment of the basin was not considered in this paper due to the
low contribution of streamflow from this part. The water-
shed boundary and stream location were determined using
DEM based option in SWAT. The watershed slopes of DDW
(DBW) were classified into four classes 0–10 (0–2), 10–20
(2–4) 20–40 (4–10) and >40 (10). The HRUs were defined
for each watershed by classifying the LCU and soil data to
match the SWAT database. The results of simulated stream-
flow were calibrated (validated) for the period from 1/1/1990
to 31/12/2009 (1/1/2010 to 31/12/2019) for both watersheds;
these processes were done using the SWAT-CUP program.
Furthermore, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NS) and coeffi-
cient of determination (R2) were selected as major and minor
statistical indices, respectively, for the maximize the objec-
tive function of the calibration process. The most sensitive
parameters were obtained by sensitivity analysis and param-
eters suggested by (Abbaspour et al. 2015). Furthermore,
the recorded Pcp, Tmin, and Tmax in the RP were projected
by using LARS-WG into three future periods: 2021–2040
(P1), 2041–2060 (P2), and 2061–2080 (P3) under the RCPs
2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 and five GCMs, namely, Beijing Climate
Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics (BCC-CSM1),
The Canadian Earth System-second generation Model
(CanESM2), Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and
Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO-MK36), Hadley
Centre Global Environment Model-version 2 (HadGEM2-
ES), and The Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1).
The projected weather variables were reinserted into cali-
brated SWAT model to quantify the characteristics of future
hydrology of LZB. The results extracted from SWAT and
LARS-WG were displayed, analyzed, and discussed to show
how climate change can alter the climate and hydrology of
LZB. It is worth to notice that the impact of change in land
cover of LZB under climate change was not considered.
Results and discussions
Sensitivity analysis, calibration, and validation
The results relevant to the sensitivity analysis shown in
Tables 1 and 2 indicated that the simulated streamflow of
LZB is most sensitive to CN2.mgt and groundwater (GW_
DELAY.gw, ALPHA_BF.gw, and GWQMN.gw) hydrologic
Arab J Geosci (2022) 15:1260 Page 5 of 12  1260

parameters. It can be noticed that the streamflow of DDW
is sensitive to snow parameters (SFTMP.bsn and SMTMP.
bsn) (M. Al-Khafaji et al. 2020). Whereas, the streamflow
of DBW did not show sensitivity to snow parameters. This
is because the precipitation of DDW is fall as snow in high
altitudes regions which then melts to contribute to a consid-
erable amount of streamflow; this process cannot be found
in DBW due to the lack of the watershed to snowfall.
For calibration processes of DDW (DBW), Table 3 shows
that the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NS) and coefficient of
determination (R2) were reached 0.75 and 0.76 (0.71 and
0.69), respectively, with p-factor and r-factor of 0.97 and
1.36 (0.76 and 1.1), respectively. Whereas, for validation
processes, the NS, R2, p-factor, and r-factor for DDW (DBW)
were found to be 0.63, 0.71, 0.85, and 1.15 (0.68, 0.66, 0.65
and 0.85), respectively. The results of calibration and vali-
dation processes are considered in the good and satisfying
ranges proposed by (Arnold et al. 2012).
The trend in minimum and maximum temperatures,
evapotranspiration, and precipitation
Figure 2 shows that the projected Tmin tends to increase
for all climate change scenarios. Under RCP 2.6, the Tmin
gradually increases from 10.19 °C in RP to 11.59, 11.55 and
11.9 °C for P1, P2, and P3, respectively. Moreover, under
RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5), the Tmin is expected to increase by
12.02, 12.44, and 13.04 °C (12.06, 13.04, and 14.68 °C)
for P1, P2, and P3, respectively. For the RP, the Tmin > 23
°C was barely dominated over 0.2% of LZB area. Due to

Table 1  Sensitivity analysis for DDW

Rank Parameter Name Description t-Stat P-value Initial (final) range
1 CN2.mgt SCS-curve number −4.31 0.00 −0.5 (−0.32) 0.5 (0.16)

2 GW_DELAY.gw Ground water delay 0.69 0.50 0 (47) 450 (254)

3 ALPHA_BF.gw Baseflow alpha factor 3.09 0.01 0 (0.56) 1 (0.58)
4 GWQMN.gw Threshold depth of water in the shallow aquifer −1.01 0.33 −0.5 (0) 0.5 (0.09)
5 SOL_AWC(..).sol Soil available water capacity 1.63 0.13 −0.5 (−0.5) 0.5 (0.09)
6 ESCO.hru Soil evaporation compensation factor 1.29 0.22 -0.5 (−0.16) 0.5 (0.22)
7 SFTMP.bsn Snowfall temperature 0.26 0.80 −0.5 (−0.5) 0.5 (0.02)
8 SMTMP.bsn Snow melt temperature 1.21 0.25 −0.5 (−0.36) 0.5 (0.02)
9 SLSUBBSN.hru Average slope length 0.51 0.62 −0.5 (−0.1) 0.5 (0.1)
10 REVAPMN.gw Threshold depth of water in the shallow aquifer for 2.80 0.02 −0.5 (0.33) 0.5 (0.48)
“revap” to occur

Table 2  Sensitivity analysis for DBW

Rank Parameter name Description t-Stat P-value Initial (final) range
1 CN2.mgt SCS-curve number −16.3 0.00 −0.5 (−0.32) 0.5 (0.22)

2 GW_DELAY.gw Ground water delay 0.75 0.55 0 (60) 450 (223)

3 ALPHA_BF.gw Baseflow alpha factor 1.1 0.2 0 (0.19) 1 (0.73)
4 GWQMN.gw Threshold depth of water in the shallow aquifer −1.25 0.15 −0.5 (−0.25) 0.5 (0.24)
5 SOL_AWC(..).sol Soil available water capacity 1.2 0.14 −0.5 (−0.5) 0.5 (0.04)
6 HRU_SLP.hru HRU slope 1.22 0.13 −0.5 (−0.23) 0.5 (0.28)
7 OV_N.hru The overland Manning coefficient −0.2 0.90 −0.5 (−0.17) 0.5 (0.47)
8 REVAPMN.gw Threshold depth of water in the shallow aquifer for 0.3 0.7 −0.5 (0.33) 0.5 (0.48)
“revap” to occur

Table 3  Calibration and validation indices

Watershed NS R2 p-factor r-factor
Calibration Validation Calibration Validation Calibration Validation Calibration Validation

DDW 0.75 0.63 0.76 0.71 0.97 0.85 1.36 1.15

DBW 0.71 0.68 0.69 0.66 0.76 0.65 1.1 0.85

13
 1260   Page 6 of 12
Fig. 2  Future trend in Tmin.
* Refers to the average annual
minimum temperature (°C)
* Refers to the average annual minimum temperature (ºC).
climate change, this percentage is expected to extend by the
year 2080 over 4.9, 9, and 9.8% under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5,
and RCP 8.5, respectively, which are concentrated over the
southwest parts of the basin.
For Tmax, Fig. 3 shows that under RCP 2.6, the projected
Tmax tends to increase from 24.2 °C in RP to 25.7, 26, and
26.2 °C for P1, P2, and P3, respectively. Whereas, under
RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5), the Tmax showed more increase with
26.4, 26.9, and 27.5 °C (26.4, 27.7, and 29.4 °C) for P1, P2,
and P3, respectively. In the RP, the Tamx > 28 °C was domi-
nated over 5% of the LZB area which is expected to extend
by the year 2080 over 12.2, 25.5, and 28.4% under RCP 2.6,
RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively.
Consequently, the projected ETo (Fig. 4) is expected to
increase due to an increase in Tmin and Tmax. Under RCP
2.6, the ETo tend to increase from 1984 mm/y for RP to
2023, 2045, and 2055 mm/y for P1, P2, and P3, respectively.
Fig. 3  Future trend in Tmax. *
Refers to maximum temperature
(°C)
* Refers to maximum temperature (ºC).
13
Arab J Geosci (2022) 15:1260
Under RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5), the 2029, 2076, and 2111 mm/y
(2041, 2104, and 2193 mm/y) for P1, P2, and P3, respec-
tively. The spatial distribution of ETo follows the spatial
trend of Tmin and Tmax. For example, the ETo > 2300
mm/y was dominated over 3.9% of LZB area. This percent-
age is expected to extend by end of 2080 to cover 11.9, 23.8,
and 32% of the basin under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5,
respectively.
Figure 5 shows the future trend in annual average Pcp
over LZB. Under RCP 2.6, the projected Pcp tends to per-
form a small change from 493.6 mm/y in RP to 489.1, 497.8,
and 493.3 mm/y for P1, P2, and P3, respectively. Results
showed that under RCP 4.5 the Pcp tends to decrease with
490.8, 486.5, and 467.6 mm/y for P1, P2, and P3, respec-
tively. More decrease can be observed under RCP 8.5 with
489.1, 479.5, and 467.4 mm/y for P1, P2, and P3, respec-
tively. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of projected Pcp
Arab J Geosci (2022) 15:1260 Page 7 of 12  1260

Fig. 4  Future trend in ETo.

*Refers to average annual
evapotranspiration (mm/y)

*Refers to average annual evapotranspiration (mm/y).

Fig. 5  Future trend in Pcp.

*Referes to the average annual
precipitation (mm/y)

*Referes to the average annual precipitation (mm/y).

is expected to alter. For example, in the RP, the Pcp intensity
ranged from 600 to 650 mm/y, was dominated over 20.6%
of LZB area, and concentrated in the northeast parts of the
basin. By the year 2080, this percentage was found 19.6,
14.9, and 14.2% under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5,
respectively. These results agreed with the literature. Wasimi
2010 found that the average temperature in Iraq tends to
increase by 0.03–0.05 °C/y. Zhang et al. 2005 indicated a
significant increase in Tmin and Tmax in the Middle East for
the period 1950–2003 and this trend is expected to continue.
Chenoweth et al. 2011; Ostad-Ali-Askari et al. 2020 found
that the Pcp over the Middle East region tends to decline by
10–14% during the current century. Results found by Saadi
et al. 2015 showed that in the Mediterranean region the tem-
perature and consequent ETo tend to increase by 1.57 °C
and 92.3 mm, respectively, until the year 2050 under A1B
scenario of climate change. Ouarda et al. 2019 pointed out
that the Middle East region could have extended drought
periods and extreme temperature is expected which means
scarce water resources in the region. Saeed and Al-khafaji
2021 reported that Tmin and Tmax in northern Iraq tend to
increase by 80 and 35%, respectively, under RCP 8.5 and
the year 2080. The hotter and drier climate conditions over
LZB could be reflected on future water resources of LZB in
terms of negative implications. These implications can be
addressed by lower snowfall and a high rate of evapotran-
spiration which will change the agricultural, land cover, and
water demand patterns of LZB. Consequently, based on the
results of this paper, the anthropic activities related to the
water resources of LZB should be changed to adapt to future

13
 1260   Page 8 of 12 Arab J Geosci (2022) 15:1260

alterations in climate conditions, especially since LZB is
shared between Iran and Iraq.
Future trends in streamflow
Results of ensembled projected streamflow extracted from
SWAT model for DDW (Fig. 6) indicated that streamflow
tends to decrease due to a decline in projected Pcp and
increase of E­ To compared with observed streamflow in
RP (122.6 ­m3/s). Other factors such as land cover or land
use management were not considered. Under RCP 2.6, the
annual average streamflow is expected to decrease with
119.9, 115.4, and 115.2 ­m3/s for P1, P2, and P3, respec-
tively. Whereas, under RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5), the projected
streamflow was found of 110.7, 103.6, and 102.6 m ­ 3/s
3
(103.4, 100.2, and 96.1 m ­ /s) for P1, P2, and P3, respec-
tively. Furthermore, it can be noticed that the peak stream-
flow in RP was 315.9 ­m3/s which occurred in April. For all
climate change scenarios, this peak tends to occur in March
with less magnitude. Under RCP 2.6, the peak streamflow
was found of 296.4, 282, and 277.5 ­m3/s for P1, P2, and
P3, respectively. In the same context, the peak streamflow
under RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5) tends to become 257.8, 255.6,
and 253.9 ­m3/s (243.5, 242.0, and 241.9 ­m3/s) for P1, P2,
and P3, respectively. The accelerated and reduced peak of
streamflow is attributed to an increase in temperature (see
Figs. 3 and 4) which generates earlier snowmelt during the
start of spring (Rottler et al. 2021). Moreover, the reduction
of precipitation (see Fig. 2) leads to less snow thickness
with less extension over the basin therefore the contribution
of snowmelt in streamflow is eliminated (Musselman et al.
2017).
For DBW, the average annual streamflow for RP was 19.8
­m3/s; this amount tends to decline under RCP 2.6 with 15.4,
15.2, and 14.4 m ­ 3/s for P1, P2, and P3, respectively. Under
RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5), more reduction in projected streamflow
with 13.5, 13, and 12.3 m ­ 3/s (12, 11.4, and 10.2 m
­ 3/s) for P1,
P2, and P3, respectively. Furthermore, the peak of stream-
flow in RP of 44.4 ­m3/s which occurred in February tends,
in general, to decrease for all climate scenarios. Under RCP

Fig. 6  Projected streamflow of 350 RP

RCP 2.6-P3
RCP 2.6-P1 BCC-CSM1 RCP 2.6-P2
DDW CanESM2
300 CSIRO-MK36
Streamflow (m³/s)

HadGEM2
250 NorESM1
Average
200

150

100

50

0
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep

Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep

Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
350
RCP 4.5-P1
RCP 4.5-P2 RCP 4.5-P3
300
Streamflow (m³/s)

250

200

150

100

50

0
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep

Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep

Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep

350
RCP 8.5-P1 RCP 8.5-P2 RCP 8.5-P3
300
Streamflow (m³/s)

250

200

150

100

50

0
Sep

Sep
Jan

Jan
Feb

Jun

Feb

Jun
Dec

Dec
Jul
Aug

Jul
Aug
Sep
Jan

Nov

Nov
Oct

Oct
Dec

Feb

Jun

Apr
May

Apr
May
Jul
Aug

Mar

Mar
Nov
Oct

Apr
May
Mar

13
Arab J Geosci (2022) 15:1260 Page 9 of 12  1260

2.6, the projected peak was found of 37.1, 35.3, and 35.1
­m3/s for P1, P2, and P3, respectively. More reduction in the
peak of streamflow was found under RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5)
with 32.9, 30.1, and 28.2 m3/s (27.9, 27.4, and 25.9 ­m3/s)
for P1, P2, and P3, respectively. It is worth mentioning that
the peak of streamflow in DBW for RP and future periods
occurs in February and no shifting was found; this is because
there is no considerable contribution of snowmelt in forming
streamflow of DBW that is clear in the sensitivity analysis
(see Table 2) where snow parameters were found ineffective
in simulated streamflow (Fig. 7).
In parallel with the decline of the water resources of LZB,
an increase in water demand for agricultural and municipal
is expected due to the high rate of evapotranspiration and the
decline of rain fed irrigation. Therefore, the climate change
adaptation plans become more attractive to minimize the
negative impacts on the ecosystem. The adaptation strate-
gies should be adopted in the overall LZB area including the
Iraqi and Iranian parts of the basin. These strategies can be
addressed by improving water use efficiency, changing crop
patterns, and a collaborative framework in the management
of water resources between shared two countries. Otherwise,
the current management of water resources in LZB can lead
to unsustainable water resources that will form a real threat
to water security, food security, and ecosystem over the basin
and local and regional water resources conflicts are expected
(Javadinejad et al. 2019; Fatahi Nafchi et al. 2021).
Conclusions
In this study, the characteristics of future streamflow for
LZB in the response to various scenarios of climate change
were investigated using SWAT and LARS-WG models.
From the results extracted from LARS-WG, it can be
concluded that LZB will suffer from hot weather and
hydrological drought by the year 2080 due to an increase
in Tmin with 16.78, 27.9, and 44.05%; an increase in
Tmax by 8.4, 13.67, and 21.5%; and decrease of Pcp
by 0.07, 5.26, and 5.31%, under RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5,

Fig. 7  Projected streamflow of 60 RCP 2.6-P1 RP

RCP 2.6-P2 RCP 2.6-P3
BCC-CSM1
DBW CanESM2
50 CSIRO-MK36
HadGEM2
Streamflow (m³/s)

NorESM1
40 Average

30

20

10

0
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun

Aug
Sep

Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun

Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun

Aug
Sep
Jul

Jul

Jul
60 RCP 4.5-P1 RCP 4.5-P2 RCP 4.5-P3
50
Streamflow (m³/s)

40

30

20

10

0
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep

Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep

60 RCP 8.5-P1 RCP8.5-P2 RCP 8.5-P3

50
Streamflow (m³/s)

40

30

20

10

0
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep

Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep

Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep

13
 1260   Page 10 of 12
respectively. Furthermore, under RCP 2.6, the projected
ETo of LZB is expected to increase by 3.84, 5, and 5.52%
under RCP 2.6 for P1, P2, and P3, respectively. Under
RCP 4.5, the increase in projected ETo reached 4.19, 6.58,
and 8.37% for P1, P2, and P3, respectively. In the same
context, under RCP 8.5, the projected ETo would increase
by 4.8, 8.02, and 12.61% for P1, P2, and P3, respectively.
Consequently, under RCP 2.6, the projected streamflow
of DDW (DBW) tends to decline by 2.2, 5.88, and 5.9%
(22.5, 23.6 and 27.5%) P1, P2, and P3, respectively. Under
RCP 4.5, the reduction reaches 9.6, 15.5, and 16.2% (31.9,
34.6 and 38.1%) P1, P2, and P3, respectively. Whereas,
under RCP 8.5, the more decrease in projected streamflow
with 15.6, 18.2, and 21.56% (39.7, 40.7 and 40.9%) for P1,
P2, and P3, respectively. Furthermore, the spatial distribu-
tion of projected Tmin, Tmax, ETo, and Pcp is also altered
due to climate change; therefore, this spatial change is
expected to change the agricultural, environmental, and
ecological pattern of LZB.
For DDW, the peak streamflow tends to decline and
shifted forward from April to March; this can be attrib-
uted to an increase in temperature (due to climate change)
which transformed the precipitation from snow form to
rainfall form and temperature rise lead to earlier snowmelt.
Moreover, for both watersheds of LZB (DDW and DBW),
the decrease of projected streamflow is subjected to a high
rate of projected ETo and a decrease of Pcp. The research
indicated that ETo plays a cruel factor in determining the
magnitude and timing of streamflow in arid and semi-arid
river basins.
The results of this study highlighted important points
related to climate change in arid and semi-arid river basins
which can be useful for other similar basins worldwide.
The results of this study are helpful for future planning and
management of water resources under various scenarios of
climate change. The consequents of climate change such as
the alteration of spatiotemporal Pcp, decrease of streamflow,
and increase of ETo imperative for the decision-makers to
change the policies used in the management of LZB and
similar other basins worldwide. Climate change should be
considered in the planning and management of these basins
taking into account climate change adaptation plans which
parallel expected change in hydrological variables. These
plans may include but are not limited to improving irriga-
tion and domestic water distribution systems, changing water
resources management policies, and changing planting dat-
ing and patterns.
Acknowledgements  This paper was supported by Ministry of Water
Resources, Iraq (MoWR), the National Center for Water Resources
Management (NCWRM) under contract No. 4-2021. The authors
introduce a special thanks to Iraqi Meteorological Organization and
Seismology (IMOS) for providing precipitation data. The authors
also grateful to the technical and faculty staff of the Civil Engineering
13
Arab J Geosci (2022) 15:1260
Department at the University of Technology, Iraq, for the valuable
support and scientific assistance.
Declarations 
Conflict of interest  The authors declare no competing interests.
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