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Analysis of Air Temperature, Relative Humidity and Evaporation over Iraq Using
ECMWF Reanalysis

Article  in  Indian Journal of Ecology · April 2021

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 Manuscript Number: 3233
Indian Journal of Ecology (2021) 48 (2): 446-452 NAAS Rating: 5.79

Analysis of Air Temperature, Relative Humidity and Evaporation

over Iraq Using ECMWF Reanalysis

Wedyan G. Nassif, Farah H. Jasim and Osama T. Al-Taai

Department of Atmospheric Science, College of Science, Mustansiriyah University, Baghdad, Iraq
E-mail: osamaaltaai77@uomustansiriyah.edu.iq

Abstract: The study was for an examination conducted to analyze air temperature and relative humidity as well as evaporation in selected
areas of Iraq. One of the most important ways in which this system can be described and with the development of climatology and its availability
by centers and periods that encourage us to conduct a climate study where the European Center data for the time research period (1979-
2016). Two different observations, day and night, were used to find the difference in temperature, humidity and evaporation at this time through
a comparison between the months of the year, as Man Kendall's results showed that there is an inverse relationship between temperatures
and relative. Humidity, in contrast to the relationship between temperature and evaporation, was positive and this is what is observed in all
months of the year depending on the nature of the geographical area.

Keywords: Air Temperature, Relative Humidity, Evaporation, ECMWF, Iraq

Climate change demonstrates the most pressing issues
facing society due to its impact on meteorological. Rising
temperatures can directly affect rainfall patterns by
increasing the atmospheric moisture holding capacity
leading to increased rainfall extremes. Hence, understanding
the relationship between temperature and extreme rainfall is
a key towards understanding the impacts of climate change
on rainfall (Andrew et al 2019). The western wind is moist and
the eastern wind dry, thus the change in daily evaporation
rate was studied considering the change in relative humidity
when other climatic element was stable. Relative humidity is
influenced by wind direction blowing on the study.
Evaporation has impact on water resources, but it also
decreases water available for agricultural region (Nasser, et
al. 2018). The most weather elements affecting
evapotranspiration are air temperature, humidity, radiation,
and wind speed. The reference evapotranspiration is the rate
of evapotranspiration from a reference surface, as the water
is abundant. (Ali et al 2017). The major subject in hydrology
and water balance techniques are the solution of significant
theoretical and practical problems. The quantitative
evaluation of water resources with their changes can be
possibly made relying on the water balance method. In the
hydrological cycle, the understanding of water balance is
important where the relationship between rainfalls and total
loss of water in various forms (Moutaz et al 2017).
Osama et al (2017) analyzed the behavior of monthly
and annual temperature data for selected stations from Iraq
and observed the relationship between the temperature with
period of study from 1982 to 2012 and concluded that that the
lowest annual average of temperature was in 1992 and the
highest annual average of temperature in 2010 and for all
stations. The total annual rainfall was (119.65 mm), while the
total annual evaporation was 3201.7 mm, relative humidity is
(43.62%), sunshine (8.76 h/day), temperature (23.28 C◦) and
wind speed (3.06 m/sec) in Baghdad (Moutaz et al 2017).
Ramiz et al (2018) investigated at 24 meteorological stations
in Iraq for 30 years. January in winter, July in summer and
annual rates of climate indices were analyzed through a
factor analysis method. As a result, total rainfall, minimum,
maximum and average temperature were found as the
strongest indices of the two seasons in Iraq. (Yassen et al
2018) analyzed for temporal trends and spatial variation
during 1980-2015. The results of the time analysis showed
that during winter, spring, summer and autumn there is a
positive trend across Iraq. There was also a trend towards
warmer years, with warmer summer and spring seasons and
slight warmth in autumn and winter, and the highest increase
was (3.5) degrees Celsius in Basra during the summer at 23
stations in Iraq. This research aims to analyze temperature
and relative humidity data and find a trend through temporal
analysis of selected regions over Iraq.
MATERIAL AND METHODS
The work was carried out using monthly data for air
temperature, relative humidity and evaporation, taken from
the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast
(ECMWF). These data have been converted into annual
averages to show the difference in day and night. Data were
processed by Mat-lab and drawn by Origin and Surfer 10.
 Air Temperature, Relative Humidity and Evaporation Analysis using ECMWF Reanalysis 447

The map of Iraq was drawn using GIS software as shown in

Figure 1. Baghdad station was selected at 15z and 03z pm.
Statistical analysis: The data of the European Center, , was
used in addition to the agreement of four additional European
countries, all of which operate within the World
Meteorological Organization. The European Center is known
throughout the world for providing accurate, medium-term
global weather forecasts for 15 days and seasonal forecasts
for 12 months. European national weather service's is as an
integral component of short-term and climate activities.
Especially giving early warning of can reduce the possible
damage in severe weather conditions can be avoided
(Person, et al 2005). The data used were the annual and
monthly averages of air temperature, relative humidity and
evaporation of air temperature, relative humidity and
evaporation. The data was by analyzing by using the Man
Kendall test. This test has been used in the field of hydrology
and climate to test randomness with the direction of the time
series, which is a procedure based on ranks, which is strong
in influencing extremism and a good test for deviation data Fig. 1. Baghdad city in Iraq
and can be expressed in relation (Kendall tau-b correlation):

Σ1<j (Sgn (X0-XJ) Sg (yi-yj)

τ= (1)
(T0-T1) (T0-T2)
Where it represents:
T0= n(n-1)/2 (2)
ΣK tk (tk – 1)
T1= (3)
2
Σt U-1 (U1 – 1)
T2= (4)
2

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The monthly average for the period 1979-2016
(temperature, relative humidity and evaporation) was
calculated using the Mann-Kendall direction test for the time
series.
Temperature values: There was a significant increase in
observation 03 for most of the year except for (January,
September, November, and December as compared to
Observation 15, The decrease was noticeable in most
months of the year except for February, March, September
(Table 1).
Relative humidity values: There was significant decrease
in the Observation 03z in most months except for March,
September as compared to Observation 15Z. The decline
was evident in most months of the year except for September
(Table 2).
Evaporation values: The increase was observed the
Fig. 2. Anomalies of yearly temperature, relative humidity,
Observation 03z for all months except for March, as and evaporation at 03Z and 15Z for Baghdad (1979 to
compared with Observation 15Z where the increase was 2016)
448 Wedyan G. Nassif, Farah H. Jasim and Osama T. Al-Taai

Table 1. Mann Kendall trend test for monthly temperature time series for the period of 1979-2012
Month 03Z 15Z

S Z p Trend S Z p Trend

January 100 1.1971 0.23104 No 102 1.2219 0.22176 No

February 258 3.1091 0.001876 Increasing 236 2.843 0.0044690 Increasing
March 302 3.6414 0.00027113 Increasing 238 2.8672 0.0041416 Increasing
April 210 2.5284 0.011457 Increasing 151 1.8148 0.069555 No
May 190 2.2865 0.022226 Increasing 60 0.71377 0.47537 No

June 264 3.1817 0.0014641 Increasing 124 1.488 0.13674 No

July 194 2.3349 0.01955 Increasing 14 0.15727 0.87503 N0

August 184 2.2139 0.026838 Increasing 177 2.1294 0.033224 Increasing

No
September 112 1.3429 1.3429 No -90 1.0767 0.28161
No
October 176 2.1171 0.034251 increasing 87 1.0405 0.29812
No
November -76 0.90733 0.36423 No -66 0.78635 0.43166
No
December 56 0.66538 0.50581 No 58 0.7835 0.49046

Table 2. Mann Kendall trend test for monthly rel. humidity time series for the period of 1979-2016
Month 03Z 15Z

S Z p Trend S Z p Trend

January -102 1.2701 0.20406 No -31 0.3773 0.70595 No

February -125 1.5589 0.11902 No -26 0.31432 0.75328 No
March -204 2.5523 0.010701 Increasing -137 1.71 0.087257 No
April -32 0.38982 0.69667 No 9 0.10061 0.91986 No
May -8 0.088038 0.92985 No 52 0.6421 0.52081 No
June -21 0.25156 0.80138 No -64 0.79368 0.42738 No
July 92 1.1445 0.25242 No 99 1.2333 0.21745 No
August 109 1.1445 0.17433 No 57 0.70514 0.48072 N0
September 268 3.358 0.00078501 Increasing 289 3.7353 0.00018747 Increasing
October 57 0.70414 0.48135 No 132 1.6477 0.099423 No
November 48 0.59093 0.55457 No 84 1.0436 0.29669 No
December -53 0.65384 0.51321 No 21 0.25144 0.80148 No

Table 3. Mann Kendall trend test for monthly Evaporation time series for the period of 1979-2016
Month 03Z 15Z

S Z p Trend S Z p Trend

January 2.1879 0.02868 1.7233 0.084833

No
February 2.5276 0.011486 Increasing 1.3958 0.16277
No
March 1.8734 0.061018 Increasing 0.49034 0.62389
138 Increasing
April 2.5281 0.011469 No 0.82957 0.40668
112 Increasing
May 2.2633 0.023617 Increasing 2.0366 0.041685 Increasing
175 202 150 Increasing -40
June 4.2264 2.3747e-05 3.6587 0.00025348 Increasing
202 181 337 Increasing
67 Increasing
July 357 366 441 4.4763 7.5946e-06 4.199 2.6808e-05
Increasing
337 221 287 163 292 Increasing
August 4.5901 4.4309e-06 Increasing 4.1236 3.7302e-05
335 329
Increasing Increasing
September 5.5346 3.1202e-08 397 284 4.9785 6.4087e-07
Increasing
202 112 No
October 4.2248 2.3912e-05 Increasing 3.5581 0.0003735
No
November 2.7663 0.0056704 Increasing 2.5272 0.011499
No
December 3.5961 0.00032298 1.3956 0.16284
 Air Temperature, Relative Humidity and Evaporation Analysis using ECMWF Reanalysis 449

observed in most months of the year except for (December,
January, February, March, April.
The changes in the monthly averages of temperature,
humidity, and evaporation for Baghdad for 38 years (1979-
2016) for observations (03z and 15z) indicate that highest
temperature (35°C) was observed in Note 03z and the
highest recorded value of monitoring is 15z for observation
47.60. There an increase in temperature in June, July and
August) and a minimum temperature was 2.6 ° C in Note 03z.
The lowest temperature was 10 ° C in Note 15z and the
decrease was evident in December, January, February)
There was an increase in temperature from 1996 to 2016,
and the hottest year was 2000 (Fig. 1).
In humidity, there is no noticeable increase pattern
during the night, but there is some decrease in humidity
during the last years of 2012. For evaporation, the behavior
contradicts the behavior of humidity. In other words, years
when there is little moisture, evaporation is high. The time
series of anomalies in temperature, humidity, and
evaporation. indicate that the temperature change in the

Fig. 1. Variations of monthly means for temperature, relative humidity, and evaporation at 03Z and 15Z for Baghdad during
the period of 1979 to 2016
450 Wedyan G. Nassif, Farah H. Jasim and Osama T. Al-Taai

Fig. 3. Time series of monthly temperature, at 03Z and 15Z for Baghdad (1979 to 2016).

event of a significant increase of 1.7 ° C in observation 03z,

Fig. 4. Time series of monthly relative humidity at 03Z and
15Z for Baghdad (1979 to 2016)
but in observation 15z, the increase of 2 ° C in 2010 was
accompanied by a decrease in relative humidity (Fig. 2).
The change in relative humidity for 2015 was 8% in
observation 03z and 9% in observation 15z. For evaporation,
the increase and decrease was observed during the period
from 1980 to 2010, but there is a clear decrease in
evaporation during the period from 2010 to 2016
accompanying the marked increase in humidity for the same
period.
Figure 3: The time series of temperature during two
observations (03z and 15z) indicate that during observation
(03z), the increase was the largest during July and August
(Fig. 3) and the lowest value during January and February. In
5z, the increase in temperature was more during July and
August, and the lowest during January and February.
Figure 4: shows the time series of relative humidity during
Observations (03z and 15z), where we notice that the
increase in relative humidity during observation (03z) is the
largest possible percentage during the month (December and
January), but the least that can be within months (June and
July). Either during observation (15z), the increase in relative
humidity during observation (15z) will be the largest during
the month of (December and January), while the lowest
relative humidity will be during the month of (June and
July)Analysis Time series of monthly evaporation at 03Z and
 Air Temperature, Relative Humidity and Evaporation Analysis using ECMWF Reanalysis
Fig. 5. Time series of monthly evaporation at 03Z and 15Z for Baghdad (1979 to 2016)
15Z
The time series of evaporation during two notes (03z and
15z) indicate that during note (03z) increase in evaporation is
the largest possible during the May, June, but the least
evaporation was during December and January. As for
observation (15z), it appears that the increase in evaporation
takes place during March and April. The least amount of
evaporation occurs during October and December (Fig. 5).
CONCLUSIONS
In this research the average monthly air temperature,
relative humidity, and evaporation values indicate that there
was clear increase in temperature in most months of the year
at night and less during the day. The night time hypothermia
is due to the rapid loss of daytime heat after sunset, the clear
skies facilitate heat loss from the surface of the earth and the
second factor is the lack of rain. Usually this increase is
accompanied by a decrease in the relative humidity of Iraq.
As for evaporation, the deficiency is associated with an
increase in relative humidity over the same period. The
results indicate that the relationship between air temperature
and relative humidity is an inverse relationship, while the
relationship between air temperature and evaporation is
451
positive.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors acknowledge European Center for
Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for providing
the data.
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452 Wedyan G. Nassif, Farah H. Jasim and Osama T. Al-Taai

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Received 16 October 2018; Accepted 20 January, 2021