Theor Appl Climatol (2011) 103:321–335
DOI 10.1007/s00704-010-0304-9
ORIGINAL PAPER
An investigation of the Iranian climatic changes
by considering the precipitation, temperature, and relative
humidity parameters
Mohammad Reza Kousari & Mohammad Reza Ekhtesasi & Mehdi Tazeh &
Mohammad Ali Saremi Naeini & Mohammad Amin Asadi Zarch
Received: 23 November 2009 / Accepted: 4 June 2010 / Published online: 20 June 2010
# Springer-Verlag 2010
Abstract The present study tends to describe the survey of
climatic changes in the case of the eastern and central areas
of Iran and, to some extent, the northern parts. The monthly
and yearly change trends in the minimum, maximum and
mean temperatures, relative humidity, and the precipitation
were surveyed for 26 synoptic stations in Iran during a 55-
year period. The study was carried out by using the τ-
Kendall test. The results showed the same temperature
changes for the centrally located stations as the eastern
and northern ones. Most of the stations in Zagros showed
no significant temperature changes. A significant decrease
in the precipitation was seen in summer in different
stations. Most of the eastern and centrally located stations
showed a decrease in relative humidity trend, while this
condition was not recorded in Zagros and northern part of
Iran. The present results also showed that the upward
trend of minimum air temperature had an effect in
increasing the mean air temperature in the stations with
temperature ascending trend. This effect of minimum
temperature was significantly more than that of the
maximum temperature, which could be the result of
increasing the amount of greenhouse gases and the
M. R. Kousari (*) : M. R. Ekhtesasi : M. A. Saremi Naeini :
M. A. Asadi Zarch
Faculty of Natural Resource Management, Yazd University,
Yazd, Iran
e-mail: mohammad_kousari@yahoo.com
M. Tazeh
Department of natural resources management,
University of Tehran,
Tehran, Iran
reflection of received thermal energies, from land through
the night. This increase in the temperature and a decrease
in relative humidity would cause an increase in the
evaporation of the received precipitation.
1 Introduction
Climate change is one of the major global challenges and
has grasped the interest of researchers, scientists, planners,
and politicians due, in part, to a persistent increase of global
warming, associated with the greenhouse effect (Valdez-
Cepeda et al. 2003). It can be said that the reality of
climatic changes, its causes, and effects on the human life
and ecosystems are the main challenges for the scientists.
Since being a pervasive element and effecter of ecosys-
tems, a little change in the climate can affect other parts of
the ecosystem with different levels of severity. Studies
have indicated that increased CO2 concentration in the
atmosphere leads to global warming and intensifies the
global hydrological cycle (Brutsaert and Parlange 1998).
Modarres and Silva (2007) surveyed the time series of
annual rainfall, the number of rainy days per year and
monthly rainfall of 20 stations in order to assess the
climatic variability in the arid and semiarid regions of
Iran. They showed mixed trends of significantly increas-
ing and decreasing rainfall only for Sabzevar and Zahedan
stations by the Mann–Kendall test.
Many studies have been conducted to assess the regional
climate of some Southwest Asian countries such as Bahrain
(Elagib and Abdu 1997); Syria (Evans and Geerken 2004),
and the Arab region (Abahussain et al. 2002). The results of
these studies have clearly shown the climatic variability in
these regions as a result of human interference to the
322
ecosystems (Modarres and Silva 2007). Through one
survey carried out by George et al. (2008) between 1850
and 2007, it has been indicated that the temperature
gradient was essentially 0 within the years 1850–1910.
Then, there was an increase in the temperature gradient for
the next 30 years. From about 1940–1980, the gradient
was again 0. Finally, there was a definite increase of about
0.6°C in the mean global temperature since 1980. Ragab
and Prudhomme (2002) used the UK Hadley Center’s
global climate model at a spatial scale of 2.5 ×3.75
(latitude and longitude) grid squares to simulate the global
climate according to the scenarios of greenhouse gas
emission. It was indicated that there will be a reduction
in the rainfall of 20–25% less than the present mean
values in North Africa and some parts of Egypt, Saudi
Arabia, Iran, Syria, and Jordan during the dry season
(April–September), by the 2050s. This decrease will be
accompanied by an increase in temperature of about 2–
2.75°C. It has been also shown that the temperature
changes would affect the evapotranspiration rates, cloud
characteristics, soil moisture, storm intensity, and snow-
fall and snowmelt regimes. Meanwhile, the changing
amount of precipitation affects the timing and magnitude
of feeds and drought, shifts the runoff regimes, and alters
groundwater recharge rates. Vegetation pattern, growth
rates, and the changes in soil moisture regime would also
be affected by the above-described factors (Ragab and
Prudhomme 2002).
Iranian researches showed that the climate in Iran
exhibits different changes which could, especially, be seen
for the temperature and precipitation. Kousari and Asadi
Zarch (2010) showed a significantly increasing trend in the
annually minimum and mean temperatures and, on the
other hand, a decreasing trend in the mean relative humidity
in the arid and semiarid regions, especially during the last
few years until 2000. Modarres and Sarhadi (2009)
surveyed the spatial and temporal trend analysis of the
annual and 24-h maximum rainfall of a set of 145
precipitation gauging stations of Iran. The study showed
that the annual rainfall was decreasing at 67% of the
stations while the 24-h maximum rainfall was increasing at
50% of the stations.
In addition, the surveys of climatic changes in Iran was
very important, and their results could be applied to the
future strategic planning in different aspects. On the other
hand, this survey could also be applicable in studying the
climatic changes in strategic parts of the world, e.g., Middle
East. So, to investigate the climatic changes in Iran,
monthly and yearly changing trends of five parameters
(minimum temperature, maximum temperature, mean tem-
perature, relative humidity, and precipitation) at 26 synoptic
stations (with good spatial distribution) within a 55-year
period were surveyed by using τ-Kendall test.
M.R. Kousari et al.
2 The areas under investigation
Iran, with 1,648,000 km2 area, is located in the south west
of Middle East. Climatically, in the most parts of the
country, four seasons are usually experienced, and in
general, each year can be divided into two seasons, warm
and cold. Iran has various different aspects such as
geographical and topographical, and therefore, the cli-
mate. Iran is surrounded by two mountain ranges, namely
Alborz in the north and Zagros in the west, and the highest
point of the country is located within the Alborz mountain
range with an elevation of 5,628 m above the sea level.
These mountains avoid Mediterranean moisture bearing
systems cross through this region to the east. The Zagros
mountain range is responsible for the major portion of
rain-producing air masses that enter the region from the
west and north-west, with relatively high amounts of
rainfall (Sadeghi et al. 2002). The climate in this region is
defined as subtropical with hot and dry weather in the
summer. The main cause of annual rainfall variability in
Iran is the changing position of synoptic systems and year-
to-year variation in the number of cyclones passing
through the region (Modarres and Silva 2007).
The climate I Iran is arid and semiarid, except the north
and west mountainous parts of the country. Summer in most
parts of Iran is warm arid, and winter is cold while the
internal part bears continental climate. Temperature range
(maximum and minimum) in most parts of the country is
about 22–26°C. The major part of precipitation occurs
between November and May, and then the warm–dry
season prevails. The mean precipitation in Iran is about
240 mm, most of which occurs in the plains between
northern Alborz mount chain and Caspian Sea side and the
Zagros chain at the heights of about 1,800 and 480 mm,
respectively. Toward the east and center of Iran, the
precipitation decreases up to 100 mm or less.
Most parts of Iran, especially in the warm season, are
affected by a subtropical high mass of the air. It causes
the existence of warm summer in the country. A major
part of precipitation is produced by Mediterranean air
mass that is brought in with the western winds in the
cold season. Location of 26 synoptic weather stations is
displayed in a map of Iran (Fig. 1). These weather
stations have a good distribution with suitable period of
weather data (55 years), which can support the climatic
change studies, from two aspects; spatially and temporally
in recent decades. According to a general division, these
stations can be geographically classified into three classes:
northern stations, Caspian Sea side stations (including
Gorgan, Bandar-aznali, Rasht, Babolsar, and Ramsar), the
stations in Zagros region (Tabriz, Khoy, Oroomieh,
Zanjan, Sanandaj, Hamedan, Kermanshah, Khorramabad,
and Shahrekord,), and the stations in the East and center of
An investigation of the Iranian climatic changes
Fig. 1 Iran map and the distribution of the surveyed weather stations
Iran (Esfahan, Shiraz, Yazd, Kerman, Tehran, Bam, Sabzevar,
Zahedan, Iranshahr, Birjand, Mashhad, and Shahroud).
3 Materials and methods
3.1 Data collection and database formation
The climatic data of 26 synoptic weather stations from
Meteorological Organization of Iran (http://www.weather.ir)
were used in the present study. The monthly and annual
maximum, minimum and mean temperatures, precipitation,
and relative humidity were collected from these stations
within 60 years (1951–2005). According to this selection,
5×26=130 matrices were formed, each of them had 55
records and 14 columns. The first column was related to
years while others were for 12 months; an additional final
column was related to annual data.
3.2 Data processing
The mathematical and statistical analysis of the experimen-
tal matrices was performed in the MATLAB environmental
programming software. Linear trend (Grundstein 2009) and
323
nonparametric Kendall’s τ test (Zhenmei et al. 2008; Wang
et al. 2008; Chmielewski and Rötzer 2002) are the most
common methods in trend determination in hydro-
meteorological time series. In linear equation, e.g.,
y ¼ a þ bx, b is the slope of line (sequence). If positive, b
is the sign of additional trend, and if negative, the sequence
trend is inverse or decreasing. On the other hand, the
amount of b coefficient is the sign of severity of the trend,
such as increased amount of b means more severity of the
trend. The amount of b coefficient and the comparison of
distinct data sequence can be applied for the comparison of
trend severity among the data sequences, but the main
methodology of the present study was time series analysis
through the application of nonparametric statistical test,
Kendall’s rank correlation (or τ test), which is based on the
proportionate number of subsequent observations that
exceed a particular value. The τ test is commonly used to
assess the significance of trends in hydro-meteorological
time series (Kendall and Stuart 1973). For a sequence of x1,
x2,..., xn, the standard procedure is to determine the number
of times, say p, within all pairs of observations (xi, xj; j>i).
As xj is greater than xi, the ordered (i, j) subsets are (i=1,
j=2, 3,..., n), (i=2, j= 3, 4,..., n),..., (i=n− 1, j = n), where
n is the record length of data set. A rising trend is seen
324 M.R. Kousari et al.

where the succeeding values are greater than the preced- increasing trend in the time series, while a negative N
ing ones and p is given by ðn  1Þ þ ðn  2Þ þ    þ 1, indicates a decreasing trend. Statistical significance was
which is the sum of an arithmetic progression, given by declared at p<0.05 (Zhenmei et al. 2008).
nðn1Þ
4 . If the observations are totally reversed, then p=0,
and hence, it follows the below-stated equation for a trend
free series: 4 Results
nð n  1Þ
EðpÞ ¼ Figure 2 is an indication of the changes in the variation of
4 monthly mean of the five selected variables from 1995 to
The test is based on the statistics of τ, 2005 in one of the selected stations (here Bam
meteorological station). In this figure, the generally linear
4p
t¼ 1 that fitted the curve and its first-order equation was also
nðn  1Þ
indicated for each parameter. It could be seen that the mean
For a random sequence, monthly trend of minimum, mean air temperature, and
relative humidity were more considerable than the maximum
EðtÞ ¼ 0 monthly trend and the trend of average of precipitation.
Especially the downward trend of average of relative
humidity trend was of great importance attracting attentions.
2ð2n þ 5Þ
VarðtÞ ¼ Tables 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 indicate the results of the
9nðn  1Þ application of the Kendall’s rank correlation test (N
parameter) on monthly and annually time series for five
The test defines the standard normal variant N as mentioned parameter and all surveyed synoptic stations. In
t these tables, +* shows the significant changes regarding the
N¼ τ test and upward trend (N parameter more than 1.96),
VarðtÞ:5
while −* depicts significant changes regarding τ test and
N converges rapidly to a standard normal distribution as downward trend (N parameter less than −1.96; both α<
the n increases. At a specified level of significance of a, 0.05). These tables are related to minimum temperature,
standard N* value can be obtained from the table of standard maximum temperature, mean temperature, relative humidity,
normal distribution. If Nj>Na/2, a positive N indicates an and precipitation, respectively. According to Table 1, the

Fig. 2 The change in the variation of monthly mean of the five selected variables during 1995 to 2005 in Bam meteorological station
Table 1 Results of the application of the Kendall’s rank correlation test (N parameter) for minimum air temperature changes

Station name Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Annually

Bablosar 2.65* 1.39 2.66* 4.35* 2.95* 3.91* 2.72* 3.93* 2.69* 1.92 3.27* 3.43* 5.06*
Bandaranzali 2.42* 0.88 2.81* 3.75* 2.50* 3.83* 5.25* 4.89* 3.67* 2.59* 3.19* 2.58* 5.61*
Ramsar 1.36 0.04 1.21 1.96 0.87 2.30* 3.74* 3.58* 2.87* 1.94 2.66* 1.11 3.13*
Rasht 1.93 0.86 1.60 2.67* 2.89* 3.76* 4.59* 5.40* 4.19* 3.49* 2.13* 2.79* 4.91*
Gorgan −1.35 −1.54 −0.17 −0.14 −1.96 0.43 1.74 2.72* 1.07 −0.08 0.38 −0.51 0.40
Bam 2.48* 1.41 1.21 3.99* 4.41* 5.01* 5.14* 4.74* 3.84* 3.64* 4.34* 3.14* 6.38*
Esfahan 0.38 −0.28 0.76 3.88* 2.53* 2.90* 3.17* 2.37* 3.07* 2.65* 2.33* 1.94 3.54*
Kerman −0.69 −0.57 −1.27 −0.09 0.11 −0.33 0.60 −0.34 −0.08 0.40 0.99 1.34 1.59
Mashhad 2.10* 0.99 1.56 3.01* 2.66* 4.32* 4.15* 4.00* 3.27* 3.61* 4.20* 3.22* 4.17*
An investigation of the Iranian climatic changes

Shahrood 1.91 0.59 1.31 3.14* 1.66 4.12* 3.64* 4.00* 3.99* 3.16* 3.22* 2.78* 4.42*
Shiraz 1.82 2.17* 3.07* 4.75* 4.20* 4.68* 4.35* 5.45* 3.36* 3.71* 3.80* 2.90* 4.58*
Tehran 3.19* 2.48* 3.11* 4.68* 4.25* 5.48* 4.91* 6.24* 5.87* 4.81* 4.84* 4.16* 7.27*
Yazd 1.17 0.37 1.11 2.84* 2.50* 3.83* 2.45* 3.04* 3.02* 3.75* 3.48* 2.54* 4.23*
Zahedan 1.01 −0.05 −0.70 1.50 2.62* 3.33* 2.05* 2.17* 1.72 2.05* 2.29* 1.50 3.01*
Birjand −1.83 −1.32 −2.17−* −1.06 −0.72 0.38 −1.03 −1.15 −1.37 −0.35 −0.04 −0.38 −1.26
Iranshahr 1.77 1.12 1.83 3.46* 3.52* 2.59* 2.89* 3.61* 4.15* 2.40* 3.13* 3.05* 5.84*
Sabzevar 4.10* 2.71* 2.56* 3.63* 3.38* 4.73* 4.39* 5.00* 5.14* 4.12* 4.92* 4.10* 6.33*
Kermanshah 0.86 1.10 1.30 3.07* 3.62* 5.19* 2.97* 3.35* 4.03* 3.90* 2.71* 2.59* 4.86*
Khorramabad −2.16−* −2.45−* −3.20−* −2.98−* −3.06−* −2.19−* −2.59−* −2.16−* −2.77−* −1.87 −3.30−* −1.87 −2.97−*
Tabriz 1.23 0.72 1.60 3.19* 3.64 4.87* 4.65* 4.78* 4.75* 3.93* 2.52* 1.84 5.18*
Hamedan −1.55 −1.87 −2.39−* −1.78 −3.16 −1.81 0.07 −0.36 −1.88 −1.92 −0.59 −0.66 −1.76
Khoy 0.38 0.05 −0.16 1.38 1.20 2.12* 1.62 2.43* 2.06* 1.09 0.39 0.05 1.99*
Oromieh −0.63 −0.50 −2.00−* −2.62−* −3.52 −2.64−* −3.14−* −3.54−* −4.61−* −3.83−* −3.29−* −1.21 −2.50−*
Sanandaj 0.96 0.87 0.39 1.79 −0.47 −0.28 −0.41 −1.66 −2.03−* −0.43 0.83 1.37 0.56
Shahrekord 0.79 −0.56 −2.36−* −1.18 −2.53 −3.09−* −1.71 −2.25−* −2.93−* −0.92 0.22 0.12 −1.50
Zanjan 0.20 0.32 −0.43 0.79 −1.28 −1.70 −1.58 −0.59 −1.06 0.33 −0.11 0.22 0.09
325
Table 2 Results of the application of the Kendall’s rank correlation test (N parameter) for maximum air temperature changes
326

Station name Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Annually

Bablosar 0.41 0.18 1.10 3.07* 0.28 1.75 2.29* 1.58 1.40 1.91 1.66 1.01 2.85*
Bandaranzali −0.81 −0.98 −0.56 −0.76 −3.62−* −3.42−* −3.36−* −3.29−* −1.56 −0.91 −0.38 −0.63 −2.90−*
Ramsar −0.53 −0.72 0.37 0.28 −1.94 −0.72 −0.02 1.13 1.02 0.74 −0.63 −0.92 −0.32
Rasht −0.36 −0.03 0.79 0.93 −2.02−* −1.10 0.61 1.08 0.91 1.01 −0.59 −0.74 0.09
Gorgan −0.38 −0.99 1.07 1.93 −1.07 −0.56 −0.62 −0.60 0.38 1.31 0.80 −0.11 1.13
Bam 0.13 −0.06 −0.86 2.42* 1.76 2.89* 3.22* 2.92* 2.17* 0.59 1.20 1.01 2.72*
Esfahan 0.07 −0.02 −1.05 1.49 0.15 0.66 0.17 1.60 0.38 −0.20 0.65 1.34 0.62
Kerman −0.09 −0.34 −0.66 1.26 1.30 0.27 0.41 1.37 0.43 0.24 1.02 1.66 0.81
Mashhad 0.66 0.36 1.62 2.53* 0.63 2.93* 1.87 2.71* 2.90* 1.79 1.85 1.05 3.25*
Shahrood 0.23 −0.69 0.36 1.24 0.11 1.88 1.28 2.55* 2.14* 0.27 0.34 −0.31 1.01
Shiraz −0.25 −0.11 −0.07 1.69 2.00* 3.00* 3.65* 3.65* 2.72* 1.13 0.59 1.47 2.45*
Tehran −0.01 −0.38 0.15 1.89 0.01 1.30 0.99 1.94 1.28 0.60 0.86 0.30 2.08*
Yazd 0.48 0.60 0.32 1.74 0.72 1.11 0.80 1.93 2.90* 1.89 2.19* 1.96 3.11*
Zahedan 0.20 −0.99 −1.69 1.30 −0.02 0.89 0.05 0.27 0.94 0.73 0.60 0.34 0.18
Birjand −0.25 −0.64 −1.99−* 0.20 −1.23 −1.03 −2.51−* −0.66 −0.89 −1.47 −0.19 0.56 −1.55
Iranshahr −0.38 0.16 −1.31 0.68 −1.42 −3.24−* −3.41−* −2.13−* −0.77 −1.59 −2.53−* −0.10 −1.51
Sabzevar 0.77 −0.14 0.62 1.91 1.17 1.80 −0.51 1.50 1.89 1.28 1.56 0.87 2.76*
Kermanshah 0.46 0.62 1.39 2.84* 2.01* 2.50* 2.90* 2.93* 3.06* 1.30 1.68 1.53 2.98*
Khorramabad −0.99 −0.99 −0.91 −0.08 −1.47 −1.85 −2.40−* −1.62 −3.70−* −2.66−* −1.43 −1.10 −2.42−*
Tabriz 0.38 0.56 1.37 1.92 0.62 1.88 1.47 1.65 1.27 1.20 1.24 0.53 2.45*
Hamedan −0.88 −0.68 0.68 3.00* 1.31 3.35* 2.49* 2.93* 2.50* 1.42 0.72 0.11 2.55*
Khoy 1.05 0.60 0.36 1.49 −1.16 −0.47 −1.26 0.21 −0.27 0.96 −0.60 −0.67 0.80
Oromieh 0.21 0.25 0.02 0.31 −1.87 −1.60 −3.07−* −2.75−* −3.01−* −1.81 −1.50 −0.05 −1.17
Sanandaj 0.93 0.80 1.04 2.98* 0.76 2.08* 1.27 2.67* 2.34* 1.18 0.19 0.89 3.00*
Shahrekord 0.97 0.40 −0.35 0.59 −1.29 −2.70−* −1.96 −0.95 −1.96 −1.94 −0.77 0.53 −1.16
Zanjan −0.32 −0.45 −0.74 1.37 −2.64−* −1.81 −2.23−* −0.37 −1.31 −1.19 −1.57 −0.74 −1.63
M.R. Kousari et al.
Table 3 Results of the application of the Kendall’s rank correlation test (N parameter) for mean air temperature changes

Station name Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Annually

Bablosar 1.59 0.79 1.74 3.77* 1.65 2.79* 2.55* 2.72* 2.42* 2.10* 2.98* 2.45* 4.51*
Bandaranzali 0.43 −0.23 0.72 1.11 −1.18 0.01 0.70 1.44 1.27 0.49 1.23 0.72 1.40
Ramsar 0.25 −0.56 0.59 1.13 −0.87 1.16 1.86 2.43* 2.33* 1.34 0.85 0.11 1.55
Rasht 0.58 0.14 1.33 2.28* 0.24 1.90 3.27* 4.11 2.48* 2.02* 0.76 1.01 3.24*
Gorgan −0.99 −1.44 0.41 1.07 −1.90 −0.31 0.54 0.90 0.66 0.69 0.34 −0.59 0.62
Bam 1.26 0.86 0.11 2.97* 2.92* 4.24* 4.44 4.01 3.09* 2.18* 2.84* 2.00* 4.93*
Esfahan 0.12 −0.23 −0.18 2.78* 2.19* 3.26* 2.91* 2.62* 2.64* 1.92 1.72 1.74 3.65*
Kerman −0.15 −0.70 −1.44 0.72 0.63 0.04 0.21 0.38 0.04 0.60 0.98 1.72 1.05
Mashhad 1.62 0.63 1.62 3.01* 1.94 4.22* 4.52 3.77* 4.13* 3.16* 3.09* 2.43* 4.91*
An investigation of the Iranian climatic changes

Shahrood 1.11 −0.30 0.66 2.17* 0.91 3.49* 2.78* 3.84* 4.17* 1.75 2.08* 1.28 3.80*
Shiraz 0.89 1.08 1.30 3.23* 3.72* 5.07* 4.57* 5.22* 3.38* 3.48* 3.09* 2.66* 4.62*
Tehran 1.78 0.79 1.82 3.52* 2.07* 3.83* 3.59* 4.64* 4.46* 2.75* 3.22* 2.30* 5.48*
Yazd 0.80 0.29 0.44 2.11* 1.31 2.42* 1.62 2.89* 3.08* 3.05* 3.17* 2.60* 3.99*
Zahedan 0.36 −0.97 −1.13 1.46 1.14 2.43* 1.50 1.63 1.44 1.44 1.66 1.11 1.81
Birjand −1.21 −1.16 −2.10−* −0.50 −1.06 −0.37 −2.04−* −1.18 −1.29 −0.67 −0.24 −0.07 −1.57
Iranshahr 0.62 0.49 −0.34 1.77 0.18 −0.10 −0.44 1.48 2.79* 0.68 1.05 1.55 2.18*
Sabzevar 2.35* 1.23 1.50 2.73* 2.40* 4.09* 2.94* 3.93* 4.17* 3.08* 3.50* 2.81* 5.46*
Kermanshah 0.79 0.75 1.62 3.26* 3.33* 4.51* 3.45* 4.13* 4.61* 3.61* 3.10* 2.14* 4.57*
Khorramabad −1.85 −1.74 −2.29−* −1.71 −2.72−* −2.78−* −3.01−* −2.53−* −3.99−* −2.78−* −3.46−* −1.66 −3.30−*
Tabriz 0.86 0.50 1.39 2.72* 1.87 3.38* 3.29* 3.52* 2.97* 2.32* 2.14* 1.11 3.83*
Hamedan −1.15 −1.36 −0.72 1.10 −0.79 0.92 1.44 1.59 −0.72 −0.99 −0.20 −0.81 −0.28
Khoy 0.91 0.34 0.23 1.79 −0.36 0.52 0.19 1.13 0.82 1.22 −0.05 −0.63 1.42
Oromieh −0.20 −0.36 −0.83 −0.99 −3.06−* −2.39−* −3.35−* −3.11−* −4.15−* −3.29−* −2.48−* −0.56 −2.01−*
Sanandaj 1.26 0.83 0.76 2.87* 0.34 0.52 0.49 0.14 −1.05 0.43 0.43 1.02 2.10*
Shahrekord 0.89 −0.24 −1.05 −0.04 −2.01−* −3.48−* −2.01−* −1.81 −3.09−* −1.97 −0.93 0.06 −1.81
Zanjan 0.01 −0.37 −0.74 1.08 −2.28−* −1.96 −2.12−* −0.93 −1.34 −0.72 −1.49 −0.15 −0.87
327
Table 4 Results of the application of the Kendall’s rank correlation test (N parameter) for the relative humidity changes
328

Station name Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Annually

Bablosar −2.16−* −2.26−* −1.14 −2.87−* −1.98 −2.00−* −0.88 −2.61−* −1.68 −2.56−* −2.32−* −2.00−* −3.17−*
Bandaranzali −0.79 −0.38 −0.31 −0.23 2.19* 1.79 1.47 0.69 0.23 0.23 −1.34 −1.07 0.28
Ramsar −0.92 −1.21 −1.10 0.09 −0.20 −0.54 0.20 −1.55 −2.82−* −1.49 −0.54 −0.67 −1.97
Rasht 0.68 −0.26 0.36 2.77* 3.81* 3.86* 3.09* 3.69* 2.60* 2.27* 2.43* 1.15 3.14*
Gorgan 3.36* 2.96* 3.03* 3.54* 3.71* 3.15* 3.19* 2.94* 4.01* 2.96* 3.10* 3.22* 4.05*
Bam −3.52−* −4.06−* −3.99−* −5.11−* −5.91−* −5.90−* −6.11−* −6.15−* −6.60−* −5.29−* −4.21−* −3.47−* −6.85−*
Esfahan −3.04−* −4.87−* −2.71−* −4.00−* −3.72−* −3.97−* −3.39−* −3.40−* −3.25−* −2.05−* −2.10−* −1.78 −3.91−*
Kerman −0.81 −1.21 −0.12 −1.04 −1.24 −1.49 0.33 0.23 −0.86 0.47 −0.43 −0.30 −0.37
Mashhad −2.71−* −2.52−* −2.65−* −2.61−* −1.60 −1.14 −1.10 −0.69 −0.56 −0.97 −1.60 −1.27 −2.66−*
Shahrood −−2.56−* −2.77−* −3.38−* −3.39−* −2.69−* −3.71−* −4.16−* −3.99−* −4.86−* −5.22−* −2.71−* −1.74 −5.48−*
Shiraz −2.75−* −2.56−* −2.53−* −2.87−* −5.02−* −3.97−* −1.88 −1.33 −1.21 −1.85 −0.85 −1.69 −4.07−*
Tehran −1.62 −0.46 0.38 −0.94 0.63 2.20* 3.04* 3.64* 2.59* 1.81 −0.33 −1.04 0.81
Yazd −0.48 −1.77 −1.60 −3.45−* −3.32−* −2.98−* −2.35−* −3.35−* −4.30−* −3.16−* −2.35−* −2.04−* −3.56−*
Zahedan −2.40−* −1.24 −1.44 −3.29−* −3.32−* −3.16−* −2.45−* −2.43−* −3.33−* −2.37−* −2.94−* −1.89 −3.68−*
Birjand 0.24 −0.50 −0.76 −2.83−* −3.29−* −3.35−* −2.02−* −2.66−* −4.00−* −2.12−* −1.15 −0.67 −2.18−*
Iranshahr −0.16 −0.40 0.18 −1.66 −1.57 −1.53 −0.38 −1.03 −1.09 −1.85 −1.22 −0.21 −0.55
Sabzevar −1.17 −1.07 −0.36 −1.58 −0.65 0.13 −0.54 0.49 0.38 1.09 0.66 0.05 0.21
Kermanshah −2.40−* −3.25−* −2.50−* −3.42−* −2.66−* −3.36−* −2.37−* −3.46−* −4.25−* −2.04−* −2.36−* −2.74−* −4.89−*
Khorramabad 0.34 −0.57 0.41 0.18 −0.40 −3.25−* −3.26−* −2.91−* −2.85−* −0.89 1.11 1.53 −1.15
Tabriz −2.00−* −4.36−* −3.84−* −3.23−* −2.37−* −2.32−* −2.20−* −2.78−* −3.64−* −3.40−* −2.82−* −3.03−* −5.74−*
Hamedan 0.24 0.47 −0.40 −1.02 0.12 −2.03−* −1.78 −1.75 −1.39 0.95 0.44 −0.60 0.05
Khoy −0.47 −2.41−* −2.23−* −2.98−* −1.02 −1.66 −0.19 −0.21 −0.54 −2.41−* −0.96 0.25 −1.60
Oromieh 0.15 −0.17 −1.47 −0.78 1.39 0.24 1.42 1.72 1.65 0.50 0.57 0.72 1.84
Sanandaj −0.61 −1.82 −0.76 −0.06 −0.47 −0.21 2.10* 1.40 2.43* 1.00 2.52 0.93* 1.70
Shahrekord 0.79 −0.98 −0.95 −0.74 0.06 −0.93 −1.26 −1.75 −0.97 −0.17 0.54 0.76 0.35
Zanjan −1.76 −2.30−* −1.28 −1.78 0.71 −0.33 0.82 −0.69 −0.32 −0.38 1.00 −0.12 0.37
M.R. Kousari et al.
Table 5 Results of the application of the Kendall’s rank correlation test (N parameter) for the precipitation changes

Station name Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Annually

Bablosar 1.50 −0.14 −1.50 −0.41 0.31 −0.17 −0.92 0.43 0.43 0.75 1.92 1.13 2.46*
Bandaranzali −0.31 −0.21 −1.71 −1.59 0.85 −1.21 −0.60 −0.56 0.11 −0.66 −0.95 0.25 −1.47
Ramsar 0.06 −0.02 −0.27 −1.18 0.25 −0.67 −0.17 −1.70 0.02 0.80 −0.59 0.11 −0.30
Rasht 0.21 0.73 −0.71 0.11 0.68 −0.53 −0.48 0.16 0.03 −0.58 1.01 0.41 0.64
Gorgan 0.68 0.59 −1.75 −1.71 0.20 −0.47 −2.14 −0.63 0.78 −0.60 1.01 0.51 −0.93
Bam −0.73 −0.36 −0.64 −1.92 −1.48 −5.23−* −6.98−* −7.69−* −8.24−* −4.41−* −3.86−* −1.75 −0.34
Esfahan 0.94 −0.79 1.97 −0.97 −1.34 −5.19−* −4.17−* −6.41−* −9.50−* −2.16−* 0.50 0.63 0.73
Kerman −0.53 −0.38 −0.78 −1.56 −3.67−* −6.21−* −6.16−* −6.51−* −6.60−* −3.94−* −1.71 −0.86 −1.87
Mashhad 1.23 0.21 0.21 −1.53 −0.33 −0.79 −2.87−* −4.86−* −3.77−* −0.63 0.65 0.92 0.46
An investigation of the Iranian climatic changes

Shahrood 1.04 0.25 1.28 −0.20 −0.17 0.99 −1.76 −1.69 −1.55 0.38 0.47 2.01 1.84
Shiraz 1.11 0.08 0.43 −1.02 −1.59 −7.82−* −6.09−* −7.83−* −9.58−* −3.59−* −0.91 −0.02 0.18
Tehran 1.01 0.27 1.81 −0.31 0.53 −1.52 −2.53−* −3.93−* −4.55−* 0.14 −0.59 1.98 1.50
Yazd 1.08 −0.41 0.59 −2.57−* −1.14 −7.53−* −7.87−* −9.80−* −10.5−* −4.59−* −1.35 0.13 0.29
Zahedan −1.40 −1.37 −1.85 −2.30−* −2.27−* −5.36−* −7.66−* −9.28−* −8.94−* −4.83−* −2.33−* −1.69 −2.21−*
Birjand −0.48 0.84 0.93 −2.67−* −0.09 −5.77−* −7.81−* −9.33−* −7.22−* −2.87−* −0.54 0.37 −0.20
Iranshahr −2.03−* −0.92 1.40 −2.13−* −2.20−* −3.09−* −2.42−* −0.79 −7.10−* −6.51−* −4.26−* −0.49 −0.29
Sabzevar 1.18 1.15 0.76 −0.79 −0.58 −2.86−* −3.85−* −6.01−* −4.18−* 0.02 0.65 1.10 1.64
Kermanshah 1.79 −0.21 1.11 −2.75−* −0.66 −5.07−* −6.11−* −8.82−* −5.32−* 0.37 0.07 0.79 0.69
Khorramabad −0.30 −0.20 0.18 −0.85 −0.28 −5.44−* −5.73−* −8.11−* −8.20−* −0.05 −0.95 0.66 −0.75
Tabriz −1.17 −3.46−* −2.45−* −0.73 0.34 −1.79 −0.46 −3.09−* −2.58−* −0.59 −0.09 0.37 −2.62−*
Hamedan 0.33 −1.10 0.27 −2.00−* −0.83 −0.50 −2.27−* −4.48−* −4.74−* 0.62 −0.18 0.15 −1.44
Khoy −1.93 −1.46 −0.63 −0.36 −0.43 −0.23 −0.82 −1.07 −1.07 −0.54 0.50 −0.08 −1.77
Oromieh −1.05 −1.84 −1.18 −1.75 −0.40 −2.34−* −1.53 −4.25−* −2.81−* −0.25 0.20 −0.40 −2.64−*
Sanandaj −1.68 −1.40 −0.69 −1.51 −0.93 −3.33−* −5.31−* −7.14−* −5.95−* −0.41 0.12 0.71 −1.24
Shahrekord 0.12 −0.09 1.03 −1.19 −0.11 −4.82−* −3.74−* −6.36−* −8.36−* −0.24 1.44 1.94 1.21
Zanjan 0.01 −0.74 −0.72 −1.97 0.22 −1.36 0.58 −0.67 −2.46−* 0.20 0.20 0.33 −1.80
329
330
Fig. 3 Spatial distribution of upward, no significant, and downward trends base on N parameter amounts for the annually minimum air
temperature in Iran
survey of the severity of N parameter amounts in the
minimum temperature, and significance of the sequence
trend indicates that the further stations in the central and
eastern Iran had increasing trends while the stations of
Zagros and western regions did not frequently show this
trend. Even, Khorram Abad, Oromieh, and, to some
extent Sharhrekord had a decreasing trend while Tabriz
and Kermanshah Stations had an increasing trend.
According to Table 1, during January, February, and
March (i.e,. winter season in Iran), a non-significant trend
of minimum air temperature was seen for the central and
eastern Iran. It could be concluded that in these areas, the
minimum temperatures’ N parameters were significant in
summer rather than in winter.
The results of maximum air temperature (Table 2) were
somewhat different from those of minimum air temperature.
The main difference was the lower frequency of significant
changes, trends, and less N parameter amounts rather than
the minimum air temperature trends, which were, in fact,
considerable.
M.R. Kousari et al.
The mean air temperature changes (Table 3), to some
extent, were similar to those of minimum air temperature.
The frequency of significant trends of mean air temperature
was less than that of the minimum air temperature and more
than the maximum air temperature frequency. Except
Khorram Abad and Oroomieh stations, where the maxi-
mum, minimum, and mean air temperature trends were
inverse having a decreasing trend, the other stations had an
increasing air temperature trend.
The relative air humidity (Table 4), in most of the
stations except Goragn and Rasht, showed a decreasing
trend. The severity of these changes in the central and
eastern parts of Iran was more than that of other stations.
Also, the frequency of non-significant trend in Zagros and
northern Iran was more considerable.
As for the precipitation (Table 5), it could be seen that
the frequency of decreasing trends was more obvious
than the increasing trend. On the other hand, according
to Table 5, the frequency of these trends was significant
in summer as compared to that of other seasons.
An investigation of the Iranian climatic changes
Fig. 4 Spatial distribution of upward, no significant, and downward trends base on N parameter amounts for the annually maximum air
temperature in Iran
Precipitation in the north of Iran such as Babolsar,
Bandaranzali, Rasht, and Ramsar was different from that
of the other stations, and there was no decreasing trend in
these stations. Regarding the annual trend, Tabriz,
Zahedan, and Kerman stations had decreasing trend, and
Babolsar had an additional trend of precipitation. In other
stations, there was no significant trend about annual
precipitation.
Figures 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 indicate the distribution of
annual trend of five selected parameters base of N
parameter from Kendall’s rank correlation method (de-
rived from Tables 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5) in different regions of
Iran. In these figures, the N contour are categorized and
classified in three classes, N parameter amounts equal or
less than −1.96 (downward trend), N parameter amounts
equal or more than 1.96 (upward trend), and N parameter
amounts between −1.96 and 1.96 (no significant trend).
According to Fig. 3 that indicates the upward and
downward trends base of N parameter amounts for the
annually minimum air temperature could be found that to
331
some extent all country have faced to upward trend except
some west parts of Iran and around Birjand meteorological
station in east. According to Fig. 4, territory of no
significant trend and downward trend for annually
maximum air temperature is more than annually minimum
air temperature and some parts of west, north of Iran have
faced to downward trend for annually maximum air
temperature. especially the territory of no significant trend
is very considerable for this climatic parameter.
About annually mean air temperature parameter from
Fig. 5 could be found that the central parts, north, and
south east of Iran have upward trend while some parts in
north east and west of Iran have faced to no significant
trend. Downward trend just could be found around the
Kermanshah meteorological station.
In the Fig. 6 indicates the spatial distribution of upward,
no significant and downward trends base of N parameter
amounts for the annually average relative humidity could
be seen that the downward trends to some extent in all parts
of country is very considerable. Just in some north parts
332
Fig. 5 Spatial distribution of upward, no significant, and downward trends base on N parameter amounts for the annually mean air temperature in Iran
there is no significant or upward trend while in the other
parts, the downward trends are very notable.
At final, Fig. 7 indicates the spatial distribution of
upward, no significant and downward trends base of N
parameter amounts for the annually precipitation. From this
figure could be found that the major parts of Iran have no
significant trend about precipitation parameter. Just around
the northwest of country and Zahedan station in east, the
downward trend is seen. Also, around the Babolsar station,
the upward trend could be seen.
5 Discussion
The present study focuses on the existence of climatic
changes in Iran concerning five surveyed parameters.
According to our results, the climatic changes in Iran are
not the same throughout the country. As Iran occupies a
wide area, it is various and non-homogenous in the
elevation and topography of different parts and has four
seasons.
M.R. Kousari et al.
It is considerable that the changes in the surveyed
parameters during June, July, August, and September are
significantly more than those of other months, especially in
the central and eastern Iran. On the other hand, in the most
climatic station of Zagros region, the frequency of
significant changes or trends is less than that of other parts.
These changes are so poor and even that some stations have
decreasing air temperature trend. It seems that the analysis
of these results needs further research on the effective
parameters of climatic changes in Iran. Therefore, for the
primary analysis, it can be said that according to the Iranian
air mass, a wide region of Zagros mount chain is affected
by Mediterranean air mass throughout the year. While,
other parts show the same effect during the autumn and
winter seasons only. It can also be resulted that the non-
significant events of January, February, and March, in the
most part of Iran, are due to the effect of Mediterranean air
mass. During this period, most part of Iran is affected by
this air mass. While, the central and eastern Iran is affected
by subtropical high air mass, and this air mass retreats
toward the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea during summer and
An investigation of the Iranian climatic changes
Fig. 6 Spatial distribution of upward, no significant, and downward trends base on N parameter amounts for the annually average relative
humidity in Iran
winter, it can be thought that this event has an important
effect on climatic changes of the central and eastern Iran.
It seems that there is a relation between the effect of air
mass and climatic changes in Iran. It must also be
mentioned that Zagros region is more humidified and
elevated than the central and eastern Iran. The effect of
these parameters seems logical, too. The pragmatism of this
theory needs more research about the climatic changes in
Iran and other countries.
The present results contain very important data about the
changes and trends in the three surveyed air temperature
parameters. According to Tables 1, 2, and 3, it can be found
that the frequency of significant trends of minimum
temperature is very much more than that of air temperature.
On the other hand, the N parameter amounts of minimum air
temperature are also more rather than maximum air temper-
ature. So, it can be resulted that minimum air temperature
changes are more significant rather than those of maximum
air temperature. Since the minimum and maximum air
temperatures are taken during the night and day, respectively,
333
it can be said that the night temperature changes are more
significant than that of the day. As one of the most important
thermal sources of the nightly air temperature is the reflected
thermal wave from the earths’ surface, so it can be resulted
that the effect of these waves has increased. We suggest that
it is due to the effect of increased greenhouse gases during
recent years. The increasing greenhouse gases behave like a
snag and can decrease the transmission of thermal waves to
higher atmospheric layer. This effect can increase the nightly
air temperature of earth. According to our results, Tehran, an
important industrial City of Iran, is facing the increasing
trend of minimum air temperature during the recent years.
Mean temperature is the function of maximum and
minimum air temperature. It is important that the significant
changes in mean temperature are affected by minimum air
temperature rather than the maximum temperature; because
mean temperature is arithmetic mean of maximum and
minimum air temperatures, so more changes in the minimum
air temperature effectively increase the frequency of mean air
temperature.
334
Fig. 7 Spatial distribution of upward, no significant, and downward trends base on N parameter amounts for the annually precipitation in Iran
The trend of relative humidity (Table 5), except in the
central and eastern Iran, is non-significant, and this trend
occurs in summer in this region. With the increase in air
temperature, the acceptation capacity of air increases for
water steam, and it causes a decrease in relative humidity,
but it should be mentioned that the relative humidity is not
the only function of air temperature and other weather
parameters also affect it. The relative humidity in Zagros
region and northern Iran is non-significant in most parts.
We suggest that it is due to the source of humidity
(Mediterranean air mass and Caspian Sea).
According to Table 5, there is a downward trend of
precipitation in the warm months, especially the summer
season. While, most of the stations show significant trend
during the cold season. The decrease of precipitation in
warm season is very important because this season
coincides with farming and rangeland in most parts of the
country. The decreased precipitation can affect these
operations and decreases the efficiency of crop yield.
Although in this study, we surveyed the monthly
changes of five mentioned parameters and we noted to
M.R. Kousari et al.
spatial trend of these parameters (in annually time scales),
therefore, there is need for some regional analysis especial-
ly about N parameter of Kendall’s τ test in future work to
finding the territory of significant trends related to each
surveyed parameters and especially in monthly time scales.
In other words, both temporal and spatial analyses are
needed for survey climate change in Iran. In future works,
we aim to consider to them.
6 Conclusions
According to the present study, minimum air temperature has
shown more significant changes out of the five studied
parameters. In general, the warm season of Iran has shown
more parametric changes rather than the cold one. Generally,
Iran is an extent area country with arid and semiarid climatic
conditions. In the other hand Iran have important problem
about water resources management related to evapotranspi-
ration. Nearby more than 70% of received annual precipita-
tion is loosed by evapotranspiration in Iran. It is anticipated
An investigation of the Iranian climatic changes
that with increasing in temperature during global warming in
Iran and also decreasing in relative humidity, the
evapotranspiration would be increased, and it is a very
important and notable subject for future studies and
researches in Iran.
The impact of climate changes in Iran may lead to include
changes in precipitation and temperature patterns, water
resources, an agricultural impact affecting food production,
and possibly more frequent droughts. Anyway these subjects
indicate the need of more attention to climate change and
different aspect of its effect on ecosystems, human, food
productions, droughts, flood generations from basins, and also
the impact on other climatic parameter especially evaporation
from lake and sea levels and also evapotranspiration in Iran.
Acknowledgments The authors acknowledge the efforts of the
Desert Region Research Institute, University of Yazd, Yazd, Iran for
supporting the present work.
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