Predicts 2018: Emerging Technologies Pave The Way For Business Reinvention

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Predicts 2018: Emerging Technologies Pave the

Way for Business Reinvention
Published: 7 December 2017 ID: G00343270
Analyst(s): Mike J. Walker, Whit Andrews, Erick Brethenoux, Mark Horvath
Five emerging technologies will reshape businesses, industries and daily life
through unrivaled technological disruptions. Enterprise architecture and
technology innovation leaders need to embrace and master these
technologies to uncover unparalleled business reinvention.
Key Findings
■ Organizations that embrace emerging technologies to reinvent how they deliver value and
create innovative business models stand to leap-frog their competitors, while future-proofing
their businesses against disruption.
■ Technology providers and venture capital firms are making substantial investments to advance
artificial intelligence offerings as cloud-first and cloud-only services.
■ Emerging technologies create experiences that challenge the conventional wisdom and rewrite
the playbook on how humans interact socially with technology and ethical boundaries.
■ The rapid evolution of human augmentation technologies continues to make technologies more
immersive and transparent, creating new experiences that are an order of magnitude more
compelling.
Recommendations
Enterprise architecture and technology innovation leaders, including CTOs, who use enterprise
architecture to master emerging and strategic trends should:
■ Use the Gartner Digital Transformation Framework to take steps to evaluate, adopt and deploy
trials of emerging technologies during the next 12 months; otherwise, they risk potentially
significant business disadvantages.
■ Conduct ideation workshops using select technologies to determine how to leverage emerging
technologies in differentiating and innovative ways to gain competitive advantage.
■ Break the status quo by self-disrupting and exploring the cost-benefit analysis of spinning off
business units that complement or compete with traditional businesses.

Table of Contents
Strategic Planning Assumptions............................................................................................................. 2

Analysis.................................................................................................................................................. 2
What You Need to Know.................................................................................................................. 2
Emerging Technology Trends Drive Predictions........................................................................... 3
Strategic Planning Assumptions....................................................................................................... 5
A Look Back...................................................................................................................................15
Gartner Recommended Reading.......................................................................................................... 15
List of Figures
Figure 1. The Top Emerging Technology Trends Driving Predictions........................................................ 4

Figure 2. The Impact of Technology Innovation....................................................................................... 7
Strategic Planning Assumptions

By 2020, 80% of CTOs in leading organizations will facilitate the identification and analysis of
emerging technologies that will be responsible for the digital transformation of the company.
By 2020, 50% of organizations will lack sufficient artificial intelligence (AI) and data literacy skills to
achieve business value.
By 2021, 80% of emerging technologies will have AI foundations.
By 2019, AI will force regulators and lawmakers to take action on its social, ethical and economic
effects.
By 2023, 20% of global enterprises will be budgeting for quantum computing (QC) projects,
compared with fewer than 1% in 2017.
Analysis
What You Need to Know
To survive and thrive in the digital economy, enterprise architecture and other technology innovation
leaders must focus and facilitate technology innovation for CIOs and business leaders. There is a
need to identify emerging technologies that will deliver competitive advantage, generate value,
overcome legal and regulatory hurdles, reduce operating costs, and support transformational
business models.
Page 2 of 17 Gartner, Inc. | G00343270

The "Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2017" illustrates several significant technology trends
that are driving business and technological change. Distilling insights from more than 2,000
technologies that Gartner profiles, this Hype Cycle shows which technologies will bring key
advances during the upcoming decade.
These technologies support three emerging megatrends that organizations must track, as well as
the relevant technological advances:
■ AI everywhere
■ Transparently immersive experiences
■ Digital platforms
Emerging Technology Trends Drive Predictions

Gartner has always maintained that a focus on a singular technology rarely provides a clear
indication of the likely business impact in the years to come, and we stand by that assertion. IT may
have become an integral part of every business, but that doesn't mean that technology, in the
broader sense, cannot, or will not, play a critical role in driving disruption and competitive
advantage in the future. However, it is only by taking a higher-level, integrative view that a clearer
picture emerges (see Figure 1).
Gartner, Inc. | G00343270 Page 3 of 17

Figure 1. The Top Emerging Technology Trends Driving Predictions
Source (December 2017)
The emerging technologies on the 2017 Hype Cycle reveal three distinct technology trends that
create profoundly new experiences, with unrivaled intelligence, and offer platforms that enable
organizations to connect with new business ecosystems, including:
■ AI Everywhere — AI and machine-learning technologies will be the most disruptive class of

technologies during the next 10 years. This is due to radical computational power, near-endless
amounts of data, and unprecedented advances in deep neural networks. This will enable
organizations with smart-machine technologies to harness data that adapts to new situations
and solves problems that no one has encountered previously.
■ Transparently Immersive Experiences — Technology has and will continue to become more
human-centric, to the point where it will introduce transparency among people, businesses and
things. This relationship will become more entwined as the evolution of technology grows more
adaptive, contextual and fluid in the workplace, at home, and in interactions with businesses
and other people.
■ Digital Platforms — Digital platforms enable interactions across the digital ecosystem.
Emerging technologies are creating a new IT reality that is revolutionizing our concepts of how
we define and use platforms to enable organizations. The shift from technical infrastructure to

ecosystem-enabling platforms is laying the foundations for entirely new business models that
are bridging the gap between humans and technology. Within these dynamic ecosystems,
organizations must proactively understand and redefine their strategies to create platform-
based business models, and exploit internal and external algorithms to generate value.
These three trends illustrate that, as more organizations make technology an integral part of their
employees', partners' and customers' experiences, they will become better able to connect their
ecosystems to platforms in new and dynamic ways. As AI technologies continue to evolve, they will
become part of the human experience and our digital business ecosystem.
Despite their apparent diversity, these technology trends share five critical similarities:
■ They are in the early stages of their progression toward mainstream deployment, but offer
potential opportunities in the near term (two years) for those willing to address the additional
uncertainties of dealing with emerging technologies.
■ They are likely to take as long as a decade to reach broad mainstream adoption across
industries.
■ They have the potential to disrupt individual businesses, as well as entire industries (or even
society itself), while delivering competitive advantage to organizations that effectively analyze
and apply these technologies.
■ They raise significant and challenging questions of regulation, ethics and morality, to which
there are no definitive "right" answers.
■ They are already available in a commercial sense, albeit in simplistic terms, compared with their
expected long-term evolution. However, none appear to have insurmountable technical issues
ahead that would prevent their long-term advance during the next decade.
Strategic Planning Assumptions

Strategic Planning Assumption: By 2020, 80% of CTOs in leading organizations will facilitate the
identification and analysis of emerging technologies that will be responsible for the digital
transformation of the company.
Analysis by: Mike J. Walker
Key Findings:
■ Visionary organizations in many industries are adjusting the mandate of their CTOs to be the
drivers of technology innovation, identify market disruptions and, ultimately, lead the charge on
digital innovation.
■ Organizations in traditionally stable and conservative industries are feeling pressure from leaner,
more agile and technically progressive companies looking to reinvent older and established
business models through business-led technology innovation.

■ The many ways in which the role of a CTO is used across geographies, industries and classes
of companies has introduced confusion in the market as to what to expect from CTOs. Based
on inquiries, CTO surveys and market research studies, Gartner has identified at least seven
distinct personas for CTOs.
Near-Term Flag: By 2018, mainstream CTOs' time (see "Survey Analysis: How CTOs Can Enable
Digital Business Transformation") will be split evenly between internal operations (51%) and
customer technology innovations (49%).
Market Implications:
Business unit and technology leaders will need to change their mindsets and their business
operating model to shift from a predigital cost optimization model to create business value
generation products and services for the next decade of digital business (see "Exploiting Economic
Architecture to Drive Digital Business"). This will require organizations to reallocate budgets and
resources, while acquiring new competencies within their organizations. They will need to establish
new strategic partnerships with service providers to achieve sustainable change in this disruptive
era (see "Leading Enterprise Architects Use Economic Concepts to Guide Cost Optimization Efforts
and Deliverables").
In many cases, in today's digital world, technology supports or is a forcing function for business
model innovations. One group from the Gartner Research Circle Membership has already turned to
CTOs to foster technology innovation with a team of strategic resources, such as enterprise
architecture and innovation leaders, as well as strategic planners. Sixty-five percent of CTOs
surveyed in 2017 (see Figure 2) report that technology innovation is the third-highest activity on
which they spend their time.

Figure 2. The Impact of Technology Innovation
Source: Gartner (December 2017)
Although some of the supporting areas of technology innovation are not as strong, technology
investing is under 10%, and technology R&D is at 46%. However, with technology-enabled
business innovation at 58%, the amount of time spent on innovation overall is on the rise and is a
prominent activity for CTOs.
Recommendations:
architecture to master trends for digital business transformation should:
■ Use techniques such as business scenarios and journey maps that embrace open innovation
approaches to foster new ideas and challenge the status quo.
■ Engage in and create innovation programs enabled by enterprise architecture and technology
innovation leaders as a way of enhancing their technology innovation functions.

■ Present the results of commissioned, two to four-week impact appraisals to senior leaders with
thought-leading enterprise architects to identify, quantify and report the effects of not taking
action. (This is especially true in organizations that are not embracing innovation.)
Related Research:
"The Many Flavors of the CTO Role"
"Define Your Future Role as a CTO in the Digital Age"
Strategic Planning Assumption: By 2020, 50% of organizations will lack sufficient AI and data
literacy skills to achieve business value.
Analysis by: Erick Brethenoux, Whit Andrews
Key Findings:
■ Worldwide, it is becoming increasingly difficult for organizations to hire data science and AI
talent, and today's shortage is likely to get worse before the demand can actually be fulfilled.
■ Delivering business value is not merely mastering technology; it means being able to translate
the power of that technology into impactful and measurable business results. This is an art lost
in business translation.
■ AI resembles the earliest stages of machine learning (at the time, called "data mining") when it
reached its first maturity stage in the late 1990s. At that point, organizations began to adopt
such systems to achieve business benefits.
■ The talent, skills and tools that lead to business intelligence (BI) success do not convert to the
talent, skills and tools required for successful AI.
Data literacy has been an issue for years. It has recently been exacerbated by the popularity of the
data science and machine-learning spaces. The talent race in the AI and data science communities
is likely to persist for the foreseeable future. Studies project that the talent shortage will last at least
until 2024. As the AI and data science talent droughts drag on, academic institutions are furiously
trying to bridge the gap. Students have latched on open-source capabilities around programming
languages (e.g., R and Python) to develop AI know-how and grow data literacy. Their technical and
programming skills are unquestionably growing; however, their capacity to translate their findings
into action-oriented business insights is lacking.
Most organizations struggle to find "translators" — data savvy and analytically proficient
professionals able to deliver the business interpretation of their technical genius. Companies have
tried to convert internal talent from their BI ranks to the new analytical realities around data science
and beyond toward AI. In doing so, they have unveiled a unsuspected cultural divide between a
community that believes decisions should be made by human users (BI) and a clique promoting
decision automation (data scientists). In other words, one group believes that intelligence essentially

sits in front of a screen, while the other deems analytical power to be behind it, through the
leveraging of nonlinear algorithms. In short, they have not alleviated the problem, and such
organizations have slowed down their progress by revealing their internal divisions.
With successive waves of data and analytics initiatives spanning decades, the diversity among the
professionals who design and use these solutions has never been broader. In addition to classic
business versus IT heritage, professional diversity now includes a vertical industry dimension, with
its own terminologies and ontologies. Although natural and healthy, this diversity is creating an
environment of professionals who do not share a common language, resulting in a fundamental
communication challenge when sponsoring, proposing, leading, designing, or using data and
analytically based solutions.
Recommendations
■ Recruit informally and internally a small team of analytics enthusiasts, while ensuring that the
team boasts talents in three areas critical to the success of analytical projects: business unit,
analytics and IT.
■ Initiate and nurture substantial conversations between the line-of-business functions and the
internal analytical talents, while promoting the prototyping of advanced AI techniques.
■ Launch an internal initiative (e.g., a "hackathon"), based on a visible business problem and a
clean set of data, to identify talented, motivated people who have not necessarily be identified
as potential analytics professionals.
■ Create an environment conducive to continuous education, and set explicit expectations that
this is a learning process and mistakes will be made. Perseverance in getting to the right
solution in iterations and reproducibility of outputs will increase stakeholder trust and buy-in for
machine learning.
Related Research:
"Prepare for When AI Turns Skilled Practices Into Utilities"
"Information as a Second Language: Enabling Data Literacy for Digital Society"
"Data and Analytics Strategies Need More-Concrete Metrics of Success"
Strategic Planning Assumption: By 2021, 80% of emerging technologies will have AI foundations.
Analysis by: Whit Andrews

Key Findings:
The availability of AI through open-source systems and low-cost APIs has jumped the core
technologies that make it possible into utility as an aspect of all kinds of software and services. As a
result, many organizations continue to develop their own AI platforms with such technologies, and a
significant fraction would prefer acquiring AI as an element of software they already own or need.
Although comparatively few organizations report deploying AI in production, most expect to do so in
the near term.
Gartner believes that the most common applications of AI will not ape human behavior, but will be
largely invisible, as aspects of existing applications. AI in collaboration will not immediately take the
form of a nostalgically named "assistant" present in meetings to take notes, but will simply appear
in a file share as a synopsis of a meeting's topics shortly after the meeting finishes. Organizations
using or intending AI as a means of providing decision support or process improvement have
significantly outpaced those that look to use it as a virtual assistant, despite how popular such
applications are in popular characterizations of AI.
Still, virtual assistants are increasingly important to consumers. Three in 10 American consumers
use a virtual personal assistant at least once a month. The proportion is highest among youthful
consumers. The purposes of such use spread range from triggering entertainment to establishing
communications. It is also true that the more than 1 billion daily users of Facebook make use of
invisible and embedded AI.
Emerging technologies will employ the self-improving capabilities that make AI useful for developing
more granular, personalized services that will be more useful and effective, with less investment in
code customization and specialization. Such technologies will empower better use of image (or
video or audio) analysis, which will simplify interfaces on mobile devices (where thumb-typing
remains a chore). Speech-driven interfaces already depend on AI, and proactive zero-touch
interfaces based on contextual elements, such as location or emotion, will also employ AI.
Near-Term Flag:
If image and speech recognition continue to improve performance, consumers and workers will
commonly turn first to speech, rather than screen keyboards on smartphones and tablet PCs.
Usage will climb to five of 10 consumers per month.
■ Vendors will depend on generally available speech-to-text and image recognition toolkits and
technologies, which will concentrate reliance on such technologies, and accelerate adoption.
■ Organizations will find that authorized and unauthorized use of consumer technologies will
continue to increase, as Mode 2 applications founded on emerging technologies become
increasingly attractive to the youngest participants in the workforce.

Recommendations:
■ Concentrate on zero-touch user interfaces as an increasingly important, and soon-to-be

essential, element of interactions.
■ Develop protocols for evaluating and testing AI and its capacity to improve its use in
commercially available and homegrown applications.
■ Invest in specific skills for experimenting with open-source, advanced analytics tools, as well as
integrating AI-powered applications with existing systems.
Strategic Planning Assumption: By 2019, AI will force regulators and lawmakers to take action on
its social, ethical and economic effects.
Analysis by: Mike J. Walker
Key Findings:
■ AI suppliers have introduced a high degree of complexity into their offerings, along with a
limited amount of transparency into the algorithms used, what they're doing and what data is
being exploited.
■ Organizations in the private and public sectors will have to grapple with balancing the benefits
of cost reduction and automation with the ethical challenges AI triggers in the human workforce.
Although there will be new opportunities and cooperative AI models for humans, there will be a
question of how to handle AI-desirable workloads that employ people.
■ Acquisition, management and protection of intellectual property (IP) changes drastically as the
disruptive and highly valuable nature of AI causes a rethinking of how business processes will
fundamentally change the interaction between humans and machines. Shifting automation,
intelligence and co-creation from humans to AI challenges the validity of existing IP legal
concepts, such as "inventiveness," "original" and "creator."
During the next decade, regulators and lawmakers will be forced to deal with an ever-changing,
pervasive, complex and massively disruptive class of AI technologies. Balancing the economic
impacts with the social and ethical challenges they will introduce will be one of the major policy
challenges that to be faced in more than half a century.
AI suppliers have introduced a high degree of complexity in their offerings, along with a limited
amount of transparency into what algorithms are used, what they are doing and what data is being
exploited. This is especially true now with self-driving vehicles. Consumers, suppliers and
governments must be proactive on key changes to how liability is dealt with, the new requirements

of human licenses or driver's licenses, and the economic shifts with commercial self-driving
transportation.
When the U.S. Congress queried Google about its transparency and the ethical considerations of its
implementation of self-driving vehicles, the head of Google's self-driving car project stated that
there was no good answer (see "How Google's Quantum Computer Could Change the World").
AI introduces a completely different model of automation than in the past, which will force
lawmakers and regulators to:
■ Be exploratory — Much is still unknown on where AI technologies are heading and what the
ramifications will actually be.
■ Change mindsets — The command and control laws and the regulations of the past
fundamentally don't apply to AI. Lawmakers and regulators will have to educate themselves to
construct new regulatory approaches. Suppliers of these technologies should expect to be
brought to educate government and nongovernment entities on how the rules change with AI.
■ Grapple with transparency — With AI potentially embedded everywhere, solution providers
should expect to see proactive controls introduced that enable consumers of technology to
understand the specific algorithms and data being exploited and, functionally, what they're used
for.
One example of potential ethical challenges comes from a supplier to the criminal justice system in
the U.S. Using 137 factors to power the algorithms, it assesses a person's probability of
recommitting a crime after he or she has been released from prison. However, an audit of the
software found that it made mistakes about half the time, it systematically underestimated the threat
from white defendants and it systematically overestimated the threat from African-American
defendants. White defendants were being given leaner sentences; African-American defendants as
a group were being given harsher sentences (see"Regulators Are Woefully Underprepared for A.I.
They Could Learn From Go Champion").
Given that humans code, configure, curate data and train AI solutions, they can only be as reliable
as the humans that coded them. For this example, the developer missed a critical piece of data —
race factors. The lack of data understanding, quality and testing inadvertently caused a cascading
effect that biased the results of the algorithm.
Organizations in the private and public sector have to grapple with balancing business benefits with
the ethical challenges that AI triggers in the human workforce. Although there will be new
opportunities and cooperative AI models for humans, there will be a question of how to handle AI-
desirable workloads that employ people. This will also raise ethical questions about the way that
people think about work, how they achieve a salary and how people will contribute to society. AI
could fundamentally challenge the idea that someone needs to work to survive.
Recommendations:
architecture to master trends, should:

■ Demand transparency — All organizations should demand that their suppliers of AI

technologies provide detailed technical architectures, information models, algorithms used,
integrations, data management and the outcomes expected at each stage of the solution to
ensure that risks aren't exposed to the organization.
■ Create social and ethical impact appraisals — Assemble your senior business decision
makers; enterprise architects; and risk, legal and compliance leaders to create ethically based
business scenarios. They will also need to develop social and ethical roadmaps to determine
likely market outcomes, with concrete recommendations for each.
■ Create an IP center of excellence (CoE) — Provide the organization with an education on
what IP is and the challenges associated. Create a governance model for evaluating products
and services and a proactive IP acquisition and creation playbook.
Related Research:
"Where You Should Use Artificial Intelligence — and Why"
"Artificial Intelligence Primer for 2017"
Strategic Planning Assumption: By 2023, 20% of global enterprises will be budgeting for QC
projects, compared with fewer than 1% in 2017.
Analysis by: Mark Horvath
Key Findings:
A commercially available, affordable and reliable QC product or service has the potential to
transform an industry. One example is pharmaceuticals, in which new drug compounds can be
quickly derived and the segmentation of customers or populations can occur in local governments,
airlines, retail and financial services.
Inquiries about QC have more than tripled every year for the past two years, with about 100
inquiries by October 2017. This is being driven by three factors: the threat of QC to cryptography,
curiosity about the capabilities and time frames for specific applications, and its potential use as a
competitive advantage. Some specific trends have emerged:
■ In financial services, organizations are looking at ways of optimizing trading strategies and
credit decisions. They are looking to QC for competitive advantages, and there is a desire to get
into the technology as early as possible. They want to develop a pool of programmers and
application developers now, so they don't have to search for them when there's more
competition, and use them to develop early proofs of concept (POCs). In September 2017,
Microsoft announced that it's developing a platform and simulators for native QC programming
languages, and they want to take advantage of it.
■ In healthcare, homomorphic encryption has emerged as a desired solution for privacy and for
processing confidential data. Homomorphism is a property of some forms of Quantum

Resistant Encryption that allows computational operations (addition and multiplication) to take
place on encrypted text, and the result of those operations appears in the decrypted text. This
supports the processing of data that cannot be read, even when intercepted.
■ Drug identification and molecular chemistry are using QC to model simple, but increasingly
complex, molecules faster and more accurately than with classical techniques.
■ In logistics, route optimization is a short-term goal that QC can begin to address. This is known
as the "Traveling Salesman Problem." Although it has no optimal classical computing solution,
(other than brute force), it is a problem QC is well-positioned to solve.
■ Cryptographic algorithms, such as RSA and Elliptic Curve, will be broken by QC, although
existing key lengths are expected to remain safe for at least another five to seven years. The
National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is hosting an open contest for selecting
recommended Post Quantum Encryption algorithms and is expected to make a
recommendation in a couple of years (the standard time frame for NIST algorithm selection).
Large-scale implementations are just beginning, with vendors such as IBM, Google and Microsoft,
and smaller-scale QC implementations such as D-Wave, meeting with success. One example is
Volkswagen AG, which is testing QC using GPS data from more than 10,000 taxis in Beijing, where
they created an algorithm to calculate the fastest routes to the airport, while minimizing traffic.
Traditional computer infrastructure had required 45 minutes to complete that task; however, its
quantum computer did it in a fraction of a second.
Last year, the National Security Agency (NSA) issued an order that U.S. national-security employees
and vendors must, "in the not-too-distant future," begin overhauling their encryption to guard
against the threat posed by quantum computers. Because national-security information must be
protected for decades, the agency says new encryption needs to be in place before these machines
arrive. Otherwise, the NSA warns, code-breaking quantum computers would be "devastating" to
national security. NIST has begun looking for replacement algorithms for RSA and Elliptic Curve and
has begun issuing new guidance for key and hash lengths. QC will cause a re-evaluation of the
security products that addressed encryption and hashing. It will drive significant changes, as new
products and vendors are evaluated and vendors update their portfolios.
QC development languages will be very different from the existing ones, due to the different physics
of QCs and a different mathematical basis. There is a race to recruit developers now and build mind
share for the products to become the standards as the hardware progresses. IBM has been offering
Quantum Computing as a Service (QCaaS), and recently updated its computing capability from 17
to 50 qubits. Microsoft and Google have announced similar products, and — although the offers are
small, compared with what is needed to make a substantial dent in the market — they are staking
out key territory around the development of new QC programming languages. Microsoft's
September announcement of the availability of QC simulators is a key step toward this goal.

Recommendations:
Enterprise architecture and technology innovation leaders, including CTOs and security and risk
management leaders, who work with classically hard problems to drive their businesses must:
■ Create a response to how organizations will deal with QC risks and by working with senior
leaders on understanding the future scenarios that could affect areas of business.
■ Identify and inventory dependency on quantum vulnerable cryptographic algorithms, and
prepare for their mitigation or replacement by creating an inventory of application
dependencies.
■ Begin to evaluate the scope of QC's and postquantum encryption's effects on their industries
by developing use cases, identifying areas of investment and understanding what competitors
are doing to prepare for these technologies.
■ Invest a few developers in building expertise in QC programming, rather than waiting until the
technology arrives, and resources become scarce and expensive. This will help evaluate QC's
potential to affect business.
Related Research:
"Quantum Computing: A Research Project or a Practical Computing Architecture for Machine

Learning?"
"Plan Now for Quantum Computing, Postquantum Cryptography and Security"
A Look Back
In response to your requests, we are taking a look back at some key predictions from previous years.
We have intentionally selected predictions from opposite ends of the scale — one where we were
wholly or largely on target, as well as one we missed.
This topic area is too new to have on-target or missed predictions.
Gartner Recommended Reading

Some documents may not be available as part of your current Gartner subscription.
"Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2017"
"Survey Analysis: How CTOs Can Enable Digital Business Transformation"
Evidence
A large-scale consumer study was conducted from 12 August 2015 through 11 September 2015 to
help Gartner understand consumers' behavior and attitudes toward the use of mobile apps. The

survey also sought to explore how these trends are evolving, and to compare and contrast country,
gender and age-group differences.
Gartner surveyed 3,024 consumers in three countries worldwide (the U.S., the U.K. and China),
establishing country quotas to ensure at least 1,000 complete responses in each country. A
nationally representative distribution for gender, age, income and regional groups was targeted. The
sample universe was drawn from a number of external consumer panels.
Qualified participants must be least 18 years old, with an annual household income of at least
$10,000 (or the equivalent in U.S. dollars). In addition, respondents personally must use a
smartphone on a regular basis (at least once a week) and must have used apps on their
smartphones during the past three months. The interviews were conducted online in the
respondents' native language.
The final results were weighted to be representative of each country's total population, ages 18
through 74 by age group and gender, to correct for any biases in the results introduced by different
proportions in the sample. During fielding, we also ensured that a minimum quota per region and by
income group within each country was reached to capture a nationally representative sample. Hard
quotas on online user profiles obtained from a prior Gartner survey in emerging countries were
implemented for China. Sample selection is done randomly in the panels' databases.
The survey was developed collaboratively by a team of Gartner analysts that follows the evolution of
the personal technologies market and was reviewed, tested and administered by Gartner's
Research Data and Analytics (RDA) team.

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