1.

필리핀 전력 시장의 현 상황

A. Peak Demand and Electricity Consumption in 2020

In 2020, the Philippines' total peak demand of electricity reached 15,282 MW. It fell
below the actual 2019 level by about 2% (299 MW) and projected 2020 peak demand
level by 11% (1,701 MW) as depicted in Figure 1. This decline is greatly attributed to the
COVID-19 pandemic, which put the country under different levels of community
quarantine. The travel restrictions put in place by the government limited the
movement of people, affecting the economy and hindering the otherwise expected
electricity demand growth for the year. Total electricity consumption also sled down by
about 4% or 4,286 GWh from 2019-2020. Several businesses have temporarily or
permanently closed, resulting in a significant decline in commercial and industrial
electricity consumption at -19% and -9%, respectively, as shown in Figure 2. In contrast,
the abrupt increase in residential electricity consumption at 12% was evident as people
were directed to stay at home, companies adopted the work-from-home setup, and
classes were held virtually.

B. Installed Capacity and Gross Generation

The delays in the commercial operation of committed power projects brought by

community quarantine restrictions and the decommissioning of some existing power
plants, particularly oil, led to the slow growth of the country’s installed capacity in 2020.
It only increased by about 3% from 25,531 MW in 2019 to 26,286 MW in 2020, the
lowest installed capacity annual growth rate since 2016. Figure 3 shows the respective
shares of each power plant type for 2020. Only 655 MW installed capacity from newly
operational power plants was added in 2020, compared to the previous year’s 1,675 MW
(Figure 4).

Following the decline in electricity demand, gross power generation also decreased by
about 4%, from 106,041 GWh in 2019 to 101,756 GWh in 2020. Oil-based power
generation was significantly reduced by 52% due to lower peaking requirements
brought by lower demand. Natural gas also declined by 15%, attributed to the decline
in mid-merit plant system requirements and natural gas restrictions. In terms of share,
coal-fired power plants continued to dominate the mix at 57%, which is 2% percentage
points higher than in 2019. This is followed by RE (21%), natural gas (19%), and oil-based
(3%) power generation.

2. 정부 정책의 변화

A. Power Generation Policies and Programs

Several landmark policies related to the country’s power generation sector were
promulgated in 2019-2020. Among these is the issuance of a Department Circular,
which contains the operating guidelines for embedded generators to ensure their
proper utilization and integration in the power system. To enhance transparency and
 accountability, the Grid Operating and Maintenance Program, which contains the
annual preventive maintenance schedule of all grid connected power plants in the
country, was made available and accessible to the public for the first time. Table 1
summarizes these new policies on the power generation sector.

(매년 정비 스케줄이 일반인들에게 공개되는 것으로 바뀜 이번에)

B. Implement the coal moratorium

In line with the transition towards a clean energy future, the DOE will continue to
implement the coal moratorium and provide the necessary assistance and guidance
to affected coal-fired power projects. The impact of this policy directive shall be
assessed regularly considering the future electricity demand requirements and
projected developments in the power industry. Currently, the DOE is evaluating the
documents submitted by indicative coal power project proponents, particularly the
land lease agreement and endorsements from local government units and regional
development councils where the power plant will be located, according to the Coal
Moratorium Advisory.

No new or greenfield coal-fired power plant application shall be processed by the

DOE. However, existing coal power plants with firm expansion plans and committed
power generation projects are exempted from the moratorium, including indicative
projects with substantial accomplishments in permitting. In addition to these policies,
the DOE was able to conduct a performance assessment and audit 1 of 11 grid
connected power generating facilities in 2019, prior to the onset of the pandemic.

C. Establish guidelines for power plant decommissioning

The DOE shall formulate the corresponding guidelines for the decommissioning of
power plants whose operation already exceeded the prescribed economic life span
and have not undergone significant system upgrading or improvements over time.
Plant decommissioning is expected to deliver a number of benefits which include the
reduction of unplanned outages due to normal wear and tear of old machinery and
equipment, enhancement in power generation production and efficiency, and
provision of additional capacity for new power plant entrants to be catered by the
existing and upcoming transmission line facilities. This policy shall be carefully
examined prior to its implementation to determine the appropriate criteria, process,
documentary requirements from concerned agencies, and facility exit plan following
the decommissioning, among others.

D. Firm-up privatization plan of government’s remaining power generation assets

Consistent with its mandate under the EPIRA, the DOE steadfastly performs its
supervisory and policy-making functions to ensure fulfillment and completion of the
privatization of the remaining assets of the NPC and IPP contracts. The DOE also
monitors the disposal of real estate properties, waste and junk materials, and other
unserviceable assets of the PSALM. Currently, the NPC-owned Agus-Pulangui
hydroelectric power plant (HEPP) complexes are subject to rehabilitation and
consultation and approval of the Congress and PSALM Board prior to its privatization.
 With regards to IPP contracts, a study on the options and appropriate privatization
structure of the Caliraya Botocan-Kalayaan and Casecnan HEPP is underway and
targeted to be completed in 2021, while its sale and turnover to the winning bidder
are targeted to commence on May 2022. In addition, the start of sale activities and
turnover to the winning bidder of the Mindanao Coal-Fired Thermal Power Plant is
targeted in

E. Utilize cleaner technologies in power generation

The Philippines remains committed to utilizing cleaner technologies, such as RE and

nuclear energy, in power generation. The recent policy issuances of the DOE on RPS,
Renewable Energy Market (REM) Rules, Green Energy Option Program (GEOP),
the conduct of Green Energy Auction, and enhanced net-metering are expected to
provide the avenue to further increase RE penetration in the country. These policies,
along with other RE support programs, aim to achieve the aspirational target of at
least 35% and 50% share of RE in the power generation mix by 2030 and 2040,
respectively, which are set forth in the draft National Renewable Energy Plan, 2020-
2040. In support of RE integration, the DOE will also continue to support and
process all ESS applications in accordance with DC2019-08-0012 or the ESS general
policy framework. By doing so, the ESS technology is expected to be cost-competitive
over time and widely utilized in the power industry. The DOE also continues to
evaluate the safety and feasibility of nuclear energy utilization in the country
through the creation of the Nuclear Energy Program Inter Agency Committee
(NEPIAC). The NEPIAC was created by Executive Order No. 116, signed on 24 July
2020, to formulate and finalize the country’s national position for nuclear energy,
among others. Other technologies such as hydrogen fuel cells powered by RE and
ocean thermal energy conversion will also be explored to provide other alternative
sources of clean energy for the Philippines.

F. Increase flexibility in power generation

Increasing flexibility in power generation enables the system to synchronously adapt

and adjust to dynamic conditions at any given time, resulting to optimized electricity
demand and supply flow. Power generation from natural gas is greatly pushed to
provide the intermediate or mid-merit supply requirement of the country. Mid-
merit gas power plants are load-following plants that can easily adjust their
power production with the fluctuations in electricity demand. As of 31 December
2020, a total of 3,500 MW committed installed capacity from natural gas is expected
to be operational from 2022 to 2025. The DOE closely monitors the development of
these projects, along with the 5,100 MW indicative natural gas capacity, which is still
under the pre-development stage. Pursuing greater flexibility also allows the
integration of VRE like solar and wind. Flexible power plants like natural gas can
reduce their electricity generation instantaneously when solar and wind production is
at the highest. This reduces VRE curtailment and maximizes its operating capacity
during its economic life.
3. 전망