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Table 1: Australia’s trade in goods and services by top ten partners (2012-2013) [1]
(a) All data is on a balance of payments basis, except for goods by country which are on on a recorded trade
basis. (b) Services data is EU27 only. (c) Excludes imports of aircaft from regional import totals from Sep-08
onwards (excl the United States - see footnote (d)). This has a significant impact on import totals for France
(EU28). (d) Based on unpublished ABS data and includes confidential aircaft imports for the United States only.
Table 2: AUSTRALIA'S TOP 10 IMPORTS, GOODS & SERVICES (A$ million) (a) (b) [2]
(a) Goods trade are on a recorded trade basis, Services trade are on a balance of payments basis. (b) Please note
– imports of aircraft were made confidential by the ABS from Sep-08 onwards. Imports of aircaft would rank in
Australia's top 25 imports. (c) Balance of payments basis. (d) Includes Related agency fees & commissions
Table 3: AUSTRALIA'S TOP 10 EXPORTS, GOODS & SERVICES (A$ million) (a) [3]
(a) Goods trade are on a recorded trade basis, Services trade are on a balance of payments basis. (b) Balance of
payments basis.
Exports of natural gas rose strongly, up 19.4 per cent to $14.3 billion. Natural gas is now Australia's 5th
largest export after iron ore, coal, gold and education services; 2012 was the third straight year of rising
personal travel service exports, up 6.1 per cent to $12.6 billion. Food exports also performed well,
exports of wheat rose 6.3 per cent to $6.7 billion; aluminium ores and conc were up 5.5 per cent to $5.6
billion. Australia's imports of goods and services rose 7.4 per cent in 2012, with strong growth in
passenger motor vehicles imports, up 8.4 per cent to $17.33 billion; and Australia's crude petroleum fell
3.4 per cent.
1.2. Period 2015-2016
Table 4: AUSTRALIA'S TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES (a)(b) BY TOP 10 PARTNERS (A$
million) [4]
(a) All data is on a balance of payments basis, except for goods by country which are on a recorded trade basis.
(b) May exclude selected confidential export or import commodities from partner country totals as well as for the
country groups. Refer to the DFAT website
(http://dfat.gov.au/about-us/publications/trade-investment/Pages/dfat-adjustments-to-abs-official-trade-
data.aspx) for more information and a list of the commodities excluded.
Table 5: AUSTRALIA'S TOP 10 IMPORTS, GOODS & SERVICES (a) (b) (A$ million) [5]
(a) Goods trade is on a recorded trade basis, Services trade is on a balance of payments basis. (b) Please note –
imports of aircraft were made confidential by the ABS from Sep-08 onwards. Imports of aircraft would rank in
Australia's top 25 imports. DFAT estimates that aircraft imports were valued at around $3.9 billion in 2016. (c)
Balance of payments basis.
Table 6: Australia's top 10 exports, goods and services, 2016 (a) [6]
Exports of iron ores & concentrates rose strongly, up 16.8 per cent to $62.8 billion. Iron ores &
concentrates is still Australia's largest export in third year from 2014-2016; second rank is coal exports,
rising up 14.5 per cent to $54.3 billion. Travel services exports also performed well, exports of
education-related travel services rose 7.5 per cent to $28 billion; personal travel services were up 5.8
per cent to $21.6 billion. Australia's imports of goods and services fall 2.9 per cent in 2016, with strong
decrease in refined petroleum imports, down 19.4 per cent to $14.8 billion; Australia's crude petroleum
also fell 15.1 per cent.
1.3. Period 2020 – 2021
Notes:
ASEAN = The Association of Southeast Asian Nations. CAGR = compound annual growth
rate. np = not available for publication but included in totals where applicable, unless
otherwise indicated. SAR = Special administrative region of China.
Table 10 shows how Asian funding boosts Australian corporate investment. The steady
increase in capital inflows from Asia, albeit from a modest base, has been a significant
contemporary trend. Since 2010, China has become Australia's sixth largest direct investor,
with investment expanding at a CAGR of 13%. Other Asian economies are also becoming
popular FDI destinations. Investment from ASEAN countries (including Singapore) increased
by 9% per year between 2010 and 2020, while investment from Hong Kong increased by
10% per year and investment from Korea increased by 15% per year.
Table 10 illustrates that Asian funding boosts Australian company investment. The steady
rise in capital inflows from Asia, albeit from a low base, has been a significant contemporary
trend. Since 2010, China has become Australia's sixth largest direct investor, with
investments increasing at a CAGR of 13%. Other Asian economies are also becoming
popular destinations for foreign direct investment. Investment from ASEAN countries
(including Singapore) increased by 9% per year between 2010 and 2020, while investment
from Hong Kong increased by 10% and investment from Korea increased by 15% per year.
3.2. Australia - Official development assistance
Figures 6 and 7 show that Australia contributed USD 2.6 billion in 2020 (preliminary
statistics), or 0.19 percent of GNI. Due to reduced investment as a result of the COVID-19
epidemic, this was a 10.6% fall in real terms in volume, while keeping an overall
commitment to a AUD 4.0 billion aid program. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the
Australian government planned temporary and targeted economic and vaccine-related actions
in 2021 to supplement the existing ODA funding. Because Australia exclusively delivers
grants, total ODA on a grant-equivalent basis is the same as net ODA under the previous
cash-flow methodology. [13]
Figure 6. Australia – ODA volume from 2009 to 2020 [14]
In 2019, Australia's bilateral ODA was mostly focused on social infrastructure and services.
Support for government and civil society (USD 418.1 million), health and population policy
(USD 212.8 million), and education (USD 212.8 million) accounted for 41.8 percent of
bilateral ODA pledges (USD 932.3 million) (USD 178.2 million). ODA for economic
infrastructure and services was USD 229.6 million, with transportation and storage (USD
75.2 million) and communications (USD 75.2 million) receiving the most attention (USD
75.2 million). The total amount of bilateral humanitarian help was USD 222.4 million (10.0
percent of bilateral ODA). In 2019, contributions to multilateral organizations were mostly
focused on humanitarian help and the social sector.Table 13.
Table 13. Bilateral ODA by sector 2019 [14]
Category 2019
Social infrastructure and services 932.342
Economic infrastructure 229.5669
Production 163.7426
Multi-sector 452.3006
Humanitarian assistance 222.4366
Other sectors 227.7659
Figure15. Bilateral ODA by sector 2019 [14]
Figure 17 shows how much the Australian dollar appreciated in 2012. The reason for this is
that Australia's terms of trade have doubled in this time, owing to increases in global
commodity export prices. A rise in commodity export prices enhances the equilibrium real
exchange rate in the real economy because it leads to increased demand for Australian
goods, forcing their price to rise relative to foreign commodities. This happens for one of
two reasons:
- higher commodity prices lead to additional investment in the resources industry to
expand capacity; and
- higher aggregate earnings due to rising terms of trade lead to increased consumption
spending, much of which is on domestic goods.
The AUD's rise corresponds to what one would expect in other economies where the
exchange rate plays a significant role. A rise in resource costs raises the equilibrium
exchange rate in the financial markets for two reasons:
- the rate of return on capital invested in the resources sector rises; and
- higher earnings may necessitate tighter monetary policy than would otherwise be
necessary, resulting in higher interest rates.
In terms of the foreign exchange market, a rise in commodities export prices enhances
demand for AUDs by increasing both export receipts and capital inflows in reaction to
better returns on Australian assets.
While trade conditions have been the primary driver of the AUD's increase since the early
2000s, events in other advanced economies have also contributed to the AUD's strength in
2012. To begin with, after a prolonged period of economic malaise, interest rates in the
major industrialized nations have remained extraordinarily low. As a result, the interest rate
disparity between Australia and other advanced countries has been unusually wide, despite
the fact that Australian interest rates have not been especially high. Second, due to high
levels of government debt, slow economic growth, and weak financial systems, a number of
other advanced economies are now considered to be more dangerous. Australia, on the
other hand, is presently one of just seven countries whose national government debt is still
rated AAA by all three main credit rating agencies with a stable outlook.
The confluence of these variables has boosted global investors' demand for AUD assets by
increasing risk-adjusted returns on Australian assets in relative terms. [17]
In 2016, the global economy continued to expand, but at a slower rate than previously
anticipated. Commodity prices, particularly oil prices, had fallen even lower. As a result,
the drop in Australia's terms of trade that began more than four years ago has continued.
Financial markets experienced increased volatility as participants dealt with uncertainty
about the global economic outlook and differing policy choices among major jurisdictions
in 2016. Funding costs for high-quality borrowers have stayed low, and monetary policy
has remained impressively accommodating globally. Even though measured GDP growth
was below average, business conditions improved, employment growth increased, and the
unemployment rate fell in the second half of the year in Australia. Lending to businesses
has also accelerated.Inflation continued to be quite low, with the CPI rising by 1.7 per cent
over 2015. This was partly caused by declining prices for oil and some utilities, but
underlying measures of inflation are also low at about 2 per cent.
Given these circumstances, accommodative monetary policy was warranted. Low interest
rates boosted demand, while regulatory initiatives aimed to emphasize cautious lending
standards and so limit housing market dangers. The currency rate had continued to alter in
response to changing economic conditions. [18]
In 2021, the Australian dollar exchange rate has fallen, hovering around the year's lows.
Australia's financial circumstances are still very favorable, with most loan rates hovering
around record lows. [19]
The Australian Government's forex policy's overriding premise is that entities are
responsible for continuing monitoring and management of their forex risks, but they must
not intervene to lower forex risk that they would otherwise encounter in the course of their
operations. [20]
5. The global opportunities and challenges associated with Australia
5.1. Challenges confronting the national economy
Australia has seen steady economic growth for nearly two decades. As a result, Australians
currently have among of the world's greatest living standards.
Figure 18. Australia - Real GDP growth from 1993-2018 [21]
The extraordinary investment resulting from the mining boom has been the main driver of
growth in Australia in recent years. Mining investment expanded from less than 2% of GDP
pre-boom to about 8% last fiscal year to meet demand from trading partners. Since the start
of the boom, the mining sector's capital stock has tripled.
Figure 19. Australia – Mining investment and capital stock [21]
However, the mining industry has reached a turning point in its development. Commodity
prices peaked in 2011, and capital investment is believed to have reached its high. The
mining industry is now entering a new phase of growth, with more output and export volumes
but lower pricing and investment. The economy will confront certain hurdles in navigating
this shift due to the extent of the investment boom. In the near term, net resource investment
is expected to move from a key driver to economic growth to a growth detractor.
Figure 20. Australia – Mining sector’s contributions to real GDP growth [21]
As completed projects are put into production, exports will rise, but the net effect of these
two dynamics means that the economy will rely significantly on other sectors to return to
trend growth in the medium run.
The medium-term forecast for typical incomes will be substantially influenced by the
lowering terms of trade. Furthermore, ageing population will mean slower rates of economic
growth as the participation rate falls. Participation among older people is increasing, but the
level of participation is lower than average, meaning that as more people move into older age
groups aggregate participation will decline. Slowing GDP growth
As Australians become wealthier, so do their expectations for governments to provide more
goods and services. As the population ages and the average cost of services rises, citizens will
face major expenditure pressures in the next 10 years, notably in the areas of health and aged
care. These sectors of spending are predicted to expand faster than GDP when combined. At
the same time as Austalia is dealing with growing fiscal pressures, significant structural
changes in the economy and global economic difficulties mean that the connection between
the size of the economy and the amount of tax collected is shifting. Revenue growth has
slowed and is expected to continue to decrease. Furthermore, revenues will not return to the
unsustainable levels of the previous decade.
Exporters in Australia are confronted with massive hurdles from a variety of directions. With
the introduction of vaccinations, Covid-19 may be brought under control quickly, but global
supply chain conditions may remain tough in the short future. Other challenges, such as
geoeconomic competitiveness and the implementation of border tariffs to address climate
change, could make exporting even more difficult. [22]
5.2. Opportunities
Australia has one of the world's greatest economies, with a record of steady growth
unmatched by any other advanced economy over the same time span. In addition, the
Commonwealth's finances are sound, and the country's debt is modest by worldwide
standards. Australia's AAA credit rating reflects the amount of confidence in the strength of
the country's governmental finances.
The government has expressed a desire to address market concerns of flexibility and
efficiency, such as through the Competition Policy Assessment, the Productivity
Commission's review of the Fair Work Laws, and the Financial System Inquiry.
Furthermore, the government has promised to releasing white papers on tax reform and
federation reform by the end of 2015. The relative share of total indirect taxes, including the
GST, continues to fall. The increase in the share of revenue received through personal income
tax is one manifestation of this effect (Figure 21).