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154 www.annalsplasticsurgery.com Annals of Plastic Surgery • Volume 83, Number 2, August 2019
range of follow-up, type of adjuvant treatment, or date. Reviews, un- extracted the information of interest. These included year of publication,
controlled studies, animal studies, conference proceedings, and letters study design, number of patients, demographics of patients such as
to the editor were excluded. Two authors (C.S., A.U.) independently race, treatment regimen, number of recurrences, previous treatments,
completed article selection based on eligibility criteria. Discrepancies were location of keloid, and duration of follow-up after each treatment.
arbitrated by the senior author (D.S.C.). A flow diagram of the literature
search is presented in Figure 1.
Quality Assessment
The first author (C.S.) assessed the methodological quality of the
Data Extraction included studies, by using two tools. The Jadad score26 was used for ex-
We categorized the different regimens into 7 broad categories to perimental studies (eg, trials) and the MINORS (Methodological Index
ensure sufficient sample sizes in each group and subsequently the for Non-Randomized Studies) criteria27 were used for observational
power to draw conclusions. Categories were designed in advance to studies. For studies that the full-text article was not available, we did
minimize introduction of heterogeneity in our analysis and were as fol- not perform a quality assessment.
lows: (1) no excision group: all patients who received either medical or
radiological therapy but no surgical therapy; (2) excision-only group:
patients who received only excision and no adjuvant treatment (neither Statistical Analysis
medical nor radiological); (3) excision + 1 adjuvant drug group: all patients Paired meta-analysis was initially performed to evaluate those
who underwent keloid excision and 1 adjuvant medical treatment (eg, studies that had directly evaluated the same treatment regimens. We
intralesional injections of steroids, interferon [IFN], calcium-channel conducted the statistical analysis using Review Manager, version 5.3
blockers [verapamil], or colchicine); (4) excision + 2 adjuvant drug (The Cochrane Collaboration, Copenhagen).28 We preset confidence
group: patients who received excision and 2 different classes of drugs intervals (CIs) at 95% and the level of statistical significance at P < 0.05.
as adjuvant treatment; (5) excision + radiation therapy group: patients We calculated odds ratio (OR) and 95% CI for all outcomes using the
who underwent excision and radiation therapy with or without medical Mantel-Haenszel method random-effects model (REM) because of
treatment; (6) excision + pressure: patients who underwent excision and considerable heterogeneity across the studies' populations.29 We tested
then pressure therapy; and (7) excision + skin grafting: patient who for statistical heterogeneity with the Q statistic, generated by χ2 test and
underwent excision and then skin grafting on top of the excision site. measured the extent of the heterogeneity based on the I2 measure-
Finally, within the excision + 1 adjuvant drug group, we extracted infor- ment.30 We considered heterogeneity values for I2 values of less than
mation on the drug used and formed 2 groups: one that received steroid 50% as low, 50% to 75% as medium, and greater than 75% as high.30
injections and one that received IFN. Two authors (C.S., A.U.) independently We did not formally assess publication bias and funnel plot asymmetry
© 2019 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved. www.annalsplasticsurgery.com 155
Quality Percent of
Assessment Period of African Anatomic
Study, Year Study Design Score Recruitment Location Sample Size Age, y American Location Lesion Size, cm Etiology Prior Treatments
39
Nason, Retrospective 10* N/S USA 49 Patients N/S N/S N/S N/S N/S N/S
1942 cohort (51 keloids)
Sclafani Prospective, 3† 1991–1992 USA 25 Females, Mean, 28 64.5% Earlobe (100%) N/S Ear piercing Surgery or steroid
et al,40 randomized 6 males (97%) injection
1996
Berman and Retrospective 15* 1993–1996 USA 66 Females, Range, 8–61 88% Earlobe 99 (86%), Range, Ear piercing Intralesional TAC
Flores,41 cohort 8 males neck (2.4%), 0.5–3.0 (50%), trauma injections (83%)
www.annalsplasticsurgery.com
1997 chest (1.6%), (9%), chicken
back (0.8%), pox (3%),
extremities surgery (5%),
(0.8%), other: burn (1.4%),
head (9%) unknown
(31.6%)
Guix,42 Prospective 13* 1991–1998 Spain 134 Females, Mean, 42 0.6% Face (45.6%), Mean length: Surgery or N/S
2001 cohort 35 males trunk (43.2%), 4 .2cm, trauma
extremities mean width:
(11.2%) 1 .8 cm
Jackson Retrospective 16* N/S USA 14 Females, Mean, 25; 75% Ear (100%) Mean, 2.6; Ear piercing N/S
et al,43 cohort 10 males range, range, (79.2%),
2001 7–64 0.5–6 trauma
(12.5%),
surgery (8%)
D'Andrea Prospective, 13* N/S Italy 16 Females, Range, 0% (White Back (22.7%), 2–6 N/S N/S
et al,44 cohort 28 males 22–45 100%) deltoid (13.6%),
2002 sternum (13.6%)
Hatamipour Prospective, 2† 2004–2008 Iran 30 Females, Range, 0% (Middle Back or abdomen Range, 2–6 N/S N/S
et al,45 randomized 20 males 22–45 Eastern (40%), sternum
2011 100%) (38%), deltoid
(10%)
Patel,46 Retrospective 16* 2000–2008 USA 10 females, Mean, 11; 41% N/S N/S Burn (100%) Multiple
2012 cohort 24 males range,
therapy (17.2%), as funnel plot asymmetry testing is not recommended for meta-analyses
steroid injection
with fewer than 10 studies each.31
(24.1%), laser
excision with
intralesional
Prior excision
evidence from direct and indirect comparisons is the same (ie, consis-
(17.7%), acne
(7.9%), burn
vaccination
trauma or
ranking probabilities for each treatment at any possible ranks (eg, prob-
N/S
ability of being the best, second best, or worst) and then calculated the
cumulative sum of these ranking probabilities (eg, probability of being
among the top 2 treatments). Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algo-
rithms were used to estimate treatment effects. We also used the “gemtc”
(9.4%), abdomen/
perineum (5.4%),
face/neck (1.0%)
shoulder/deltoid
(17.7%), chest
(23.4%), lip
checked using the Gelman and Rubin diagnostic37 and trace plots.38
RESULTS
Median, 15 0% (Asian
(interquartile 100%)
Literature Search
100%
range,
*MINORS criteria for quality assessment of observation studies was used (range of scores, 0–24).
36 males
recurrence rates.
Outcomes
Korea
2002–2012 South
treatment dyads:
(1)No excision versus excision only: Two studies39,52 were included,
resulting in 25 patients in the nonexcision group and 15 in the excision-
only group. Odds for recurrence were lower for the nonexcision group
at the marginally statistically significant level (OR, 0.25; REM; 95%
CI, 0.06–1.00; P = 0.05; I2 = 0%, Fig. 2).
(2)Excision only versus excision + 1 adjuvant drug: Five stud-
ies40,41,47,48,52 were included, resulting in 78 patients among the
excision-only group and 192 among the excision + 1 adjuvant drug
15*
16*
group. Odds for recurrence were greater for the excision-only group
but were not statistically significant (OR, 1.41; REM; 95% CI,
0.78–2.54; P = 0.26; I2 = 0%; Fig. 3).
(3)Excision only versus excision + radiation: Six studies39,40,47–49,51
Retrospective
Aluko-Olokun Prospective
cohort
and 127 among the excision + radiation group. Odds for recurrence
N/S, not specified.
were greater for the excision-only group and were not statistically
significant (OR, 3.59; REM; 95% CI, 0.56–22.96; P = 0.18;
I2 = 77%; Fig. 4).
Chang,52
Park and
2015
© 2019 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved. www.annalsplasticsurgery.com 157
TABLE 2. Number of Keloid Recurrences Following Various Treatments, as Reported by the Included Studies
FIGURE 3. Forest plot for excision only versus excision + 1 adjuvant drug.
158 www.annalsplasticsurgery.com © 2019 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.
FIGURE 5. Forest plot for excision + 1 adjuvant drug versus excision + 2 adjuvant drugs.
FIGURE 6. Forest plot for excision + 1 adjuvant drug versus excision + radiation.
FIGURE 7. Forest plot steroid versus IFN as adjuvant treatments following excision.
FIGURE 8. Network graph of the 14 studies. The size of the node is proportional to the number of subjects contributed to that drug.
Each edge connecting 2 nodes represents a direct comparison between the 2 drugs. The thickness of the edge is proportional to the
number of studies investigating the relationship.
© 2019 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved. www.annalsplasticsurgery.com 159
Posterior means of OR between column and row (95% Bayesian credible intervals) under the Bayesian REM are reported. Odds ratio of less than 1 favors the treatment in the column, and OR greater than 1
1.22 (0.01–128.38)
1.52 (0.01–143.17)
3.23 (0.01–670.48)
0.58 (0.00–76.10)
0.27 (0.00–22.87)
0.33 (0.00–20.42)
Excision + Skin
this difference was not statistically significant (OR, 4.34; REM; 95%
Grafting
CI, 0.38–49.20; P = 0.24; I2 = 79%; Fig. 5).
(5)Excision + 1 adjuvant drug versus excision + radiation: Five stud-
ies40,43,47,48,50 were included, resulting in 88 patients among the exci-
sion + 1 adjuvant drug group and 74 among the excision + radiation
group. Odds for recurrence were significantly higher for the exci-
sion + 1 adjuvant drug group (OR, 3.22; REM; 95% CI, 1.35, 7.67;
P = 0.008; I2 = 0%; Fig. 6).
0.38 (0.01–18.75)
0.46 (0.02–16.58)
0.31 (0.00–89.93)
0.18 (0.01–7.07)
0.08 (0.00–2.41)
0.10 (0.00–2.71)
(6)Steroids versus IFN in the excision + 1 adjuvant drug group: Two
Excision +
Pressure
studies41,53 were included resulting in 91 patients who received ste-
roids as adjuvant treatment and 29 who received IFN among patients
of the excision + 1 adjuvant drug group. Odds for recurrence were
similar among patients of the 2 groups (OR, 0.99; REM; 95% CI,
0.03, 36.31; P = 1.00; I2 = 92%; Fig. 7).
We also investigated the 7 treatments presented in the 14 studies
2.16 (0.06–66.42)
0.66 (0.01–81.29)
0.39 (0.04–3.31)
0.22 (0.04–1.04)
0.18 (0.03–0.79)
0.82 (0.05–9.84)
in a network fashion (Fig. 8). The total number of direct comparisons
Excision +
Radiation
was 12. Out of 14 studies, 8 studies compared 2 treatments; 5 studies
compared 3 treatments; 1 study compared 4 treatments (Table 2). Most
subjects underwent excision + radiation (313 of 996), and the fewest
subjects underwent excision + skin grafting (26 of 996).
Odds ratio estimates and the associated 95% CIs in comparison
to no excision were calculated (Table 3) and were as follows: excision +
pressure” 0.18 (0.01–7.07); excision + 2 adjuvant drugs, 0.47 (0.02–12.82);
2.64 (0.05–149.46)
0.82 (0.01–134.56)
0.47 (0.02–12.82)
1.22 (0.10–20.23)
0.22 (0.02–3.25)
0.27 (0.03–2.41)
Adjuvant Drugs
excision + radiation, 0.39 (0.04–3.31); excision + skin grafting, 0.58
Excision + 2
(0.00–76.10); excision + 1 adjuvant drug, 1.76 (0.17–21.35), and exci-
sion only, 2.17 (0.23–23.95). The only statistically significant difference
identified was for the lower rates of recurrences for patients who received
excision + radiation, in comparison to excision only. SUCRAvalues were
calculated based on the cumulative ranking probability curve of each
treatment (Figure, Supplemental Digital Content 2, http://links.lww.
com/SAP/A365). The values, ordered from the most effective treatment
9.85 (0.37–290.32)
3.02 (0.05–307.35)
1.76 (0.17–21.35)
4.56 (0.97–27.77)
3.72 (0.41–32.66)
0.81 (0.15–4.24)
Adjuvant Drug
Excision + 1
4.59 (0.31–64.78)
1.23 (0.24–6.50)
Excision Only
DISCUSSION
Keloids and hypertrophic scars are difficult to treat and often re-
cur following treatment. Excision is commonly used because it yields
the most rapid visible reduction of the keloid. However, as with other
treatments, excision is associated with a high rate of recurrence. Although
favors the treatment in the row. Significant ORs are in bold.
rence rate. In the comparison group, the most commonly used nonradiation
Excision + skin grafting
other modalities. The results of our paired meta-analysis agree with the
results of the network meta-analysis, according to which excision + radi-
Excision only
No excision
160 www.annalsplasticsurgery.com © 2019 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.
Radiation therapy has been utilized for treating keloids for over a CONCLUSIONS
century.54 The effectiveness of postexcision radiation therapy in reducing We employed the novel statistical tool of network meta-analysis
keloid size has been demonstrated by multiple studies.55–58 A 2015 study in order to evaluate the effect of different adjuvant treatments following
found that radiation affects keloid formation by decreasing fibroblast keloid excision. “Excision + radiation” seems to have significantly less
proliferation through inhibition of histamine release from mast cells recurrences than “excision only” or “excision + 1 adjuvant drug.” However,
and suppressing collagen synthesis through inhibition of TGF-β1.56 future randomized trials are necessary in order to draw more confident
The most commonly used forms of radiation therapy for keloids are conclusions and help guide clinical decision making.
brachytherapy and electron beam radiation. In a retrospective review
of 612 patients with 892 keloids treated between 1992 and 2006 with
postexcision brachytherapy, Viani et al59 reported a recurrence-free re-
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