New studies agree that animals sold at Wuhan market are

most likely what started Covid-19 pandemic

By Jen Christensen, CNN
 Updated 0136 GMT (0936 HKT) July 27, 2022

(CNN) — In June, the World Health Organization recommended that scientists continue to research all possible
origins of the Covid-19 pandemic, including a lab leak. Two newly published studies take totally different
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approaches but arrive at the same conclusion: The Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan, China, was most likely the
epicenter for the coronavirus.

The studies were posted online as preprints in February but have now undergone peer review and were published
Tuesday in the journal Science.

In one, scientists from around the world used mapping tools

and social media reports to do a spatial and environmental
analysis. They suggest that although the "exact
circumstances remain obscure," the virus was probably
present in live animals sold at the market in late 2019. The
animals were held close together and could easily have
exchanged germs. However, the study does not determine
which animals may have been sick.

The researchers determined that the earliest Covid-19 cases

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were centered at the market among vendors who sold these
live animals or people who shopped there. They believe that
there were two separate viruses circulating in the animals that
spilled over into people.
"All eight COVID-19 cases detected prior to 20 December
were from the western side of the market, where mammal
species were also sold," the study says. The proximity to five
stalls that sold live or recently butchered animals was

"The clustering is very, very specific," study co-author Kristian

Andersen, a professor in the Department of Immunology and
Microbiology at Scripps Research, said Tuesday.

The "extraordinary" pattern that emerged from mapping these

cases was very clear, said another co-author, Michael
Worobey, department head of Ecology and Evolutionary
Biology at the University of Arizona.

The researchers mapped the earliest cases that had no

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connection to the market, Worobey noted, and those people
lived or worked in close proximity to the market.
"This is an indication that the virus started spreading in
people who worked at the market but then started that
spread ... into the surrounding local community as vendors
went into local shops, infected people who worked in those
shops," Worobey said.

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The other study takes a molecular approach and seems to
determine when the first coronavirus infections crossed from
animals to humans.
The earliest version of the coronavirus, this research shows,
probably came in different forms that the scientists call A and
B. The lineages were the result of at least two cross-species
transmission events into humans.
The researchers suggest that the first animal-to-human
transmission probably happened around November
Audio 18,Log2019,
In
and it came from lineage B. They found the lineage B type
only in people who had a direct connection to the Huanan
market.
The authors believe that lineage A was introduced into
humans from an animal within weeks or even days of the
infection from lineage B. Lineage A was found in samples
from humans who lived or stayed close to the market.
"These findings indicate that it is unlikely that SARS-CoV-2
circulated widely in humans prior to November 2019 and
define the narrow window between when SARS-CoV-2 first
jumped into humans and when the first cases of COVID-19
were reported," the study says. "As with other coronaviruses,
SARS-CoV-2 emergence likely resulted from multiple zoonotic
events."
The likelihood that such a virus would emerge from two
different events is low, acknowledged co-author Joel
Wertheim, an associate adjunct professor of medicine at the
University of California, San Diego.
"Now, I realize it sounds like I just said that a once-in-a-
generation event happened twice in short succession, and
pandemics are indeed rare, but once all the conditions are in
place -- that is a zoonotic virus capable of both human
infection and human transmission that is in close proximity to
humans -- the barriers to spillover have been lowered such
that multiple introductions, we believe, should actually be
expected," Wertheim said.
Andersen said the studies don't definitively disprove the lab
leak theory but are extremely persuasive, so much so that he
changed his mind about the virus' origins.
"I was quite convinced of the lab leak myself, until we dove
into this very carefully and looked at it much closer," Andersen
said. "Based on data and analysis I've done over the last
decade on many other viruses, I've convinced myself that
actually the data points to this particular market."
Worobey said he too thought the lab leak was possible, but
the epidemiological preponderance of cases linked to the
market is "not a mirage."

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"It's a real thing," he said. "It's just not plausible that this virus
was introduced any other way than through the wildlife trade."
To reduce the chances of future pandemics, the researchers
hope they can determine exactly what animal may have first
become infected and how.
"The raw ingredients for a zoonotic virus with pandemic
potential are still lurking in the wild," Wertheim said. He
believes the world needs to do a much better job doing
surveillance and monitoring animals and other potential
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threats to human health.
Andersen said that although we can't prevent outbreaks,
collaboration between the world's scientists could be key to
the difference between a disease with a small impact and one
that kills millions.
"The big question we need to ask ourselves is -- the next time
this happens, because it will happen -- how do we go from
detecting that outbreak early and preventing that outbreak so
it doesn't become a pandemic?"
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