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The Future of
Coal-Based Power Generation
JAMES R. KATZER, CONSULTANT
C
oal is used to generate more
than half of the electricity pro- Despite its image as a dirty fuel,
duced in the U.S., and about coal remains an economic choice for
40% of the electricity produced glob-
ally (1). For China and India, the coal- baseload power generation —
based fraction is much higher.
Global CO2 emissions from coal- and it can, in fact, have very low emissions.
based power generation exceed 7 bil-
lion m.t./yr — about 41% of the total reserves and limited reserves of other Gulf Coast, with 2000–2004 costs
energy-related CO2 emissions. The fossil fuels; the U.S., with about 255 indexed to 2007
U.S. and China emitted similar billon m.t. of recoverable coal, has • only commercially demonstrated
amounts — roughly 2.5 billion m.t. 27% of the world total (1). technologies are considered
each in 2006 (2). Power plants are Worldwide, primary energy • cost estimates are for the Nth plant
some of the largest single-point demand is projected to grow by just (where N is a single-digit number) for
sources of CO2 emissions, with a typi- over 50% by 2030, with electricity those technologies that are still evolv-
cal 1,000-MWe coal-fired power plant demand doubling. Coal-based power ing, such as integrated gasification
emitting more than 6 million m.t./yr. will, by necessity, account for a large combined cycle (IGCC) and pulverized
Total CO2 emissions from some of the portion of this growth, and will essen- coal combustion with CO2 capture
larger (3,000–6,000 MWe) power tially maintain its current share of the • the levelized cost of electricity
plants in several countries are given in electricity generation portfolio. Thus, (COE) (i.e., the constant-dollar price
Table 1 (3, 4). the use of advanced technology to required over the life of the plant to
Coal is a critical fuel for power minimize the environmental footprint cover all operating expenses, payment
generation. It remains the least expen- of coal-based power generation must of debt, and accrued interest on initial
sive of all the fossil fuels — at $1–$2 be a major objective. project expenses, plus the payment of
per million Btu, compared with This article, which is based on the an acceptable return to investors) is
$6–12 per million Btu for natural gas work done for MIT’s “The Future of calculated using the EPRI-recom-
and oil. It is also very abundant, with Coal” study (6), focuses on the tech- mended approach.
proven global reserves estimated to nologies that are available and under This analysis allows a rough cost
be about 900 billion m.t. — the development for generating electricity comparison among the technologies to
equivalent of about 160 years’ supply from coal. It includes discussion of be made. Actual costs will depend on
at current production rates (5). Today, their costs and environmental perfor- the coal type, plant site and location,
the three largest coal consumers — mance related to criteria pollutants dispatch strategy, and a myriad of other
China, the U.S., and India — have (e.g., SO2, NOx, particulate matter), design and operating decisions. (Fur-
about half of the world’s coal and of their amenability to CO2 capture ther details are available in Ref. 6.) The
and sequestration. In order to compare point of this discussion is to compare
technologies, a common set of design the technologies with and without CO2
Table 1. CO2 emissions from some criteria and operating conditions and capture. (The technologies and costs
large coal-fired power plants (3, 4).
assumptions was selected: for CO2 transport and geologic storage
Plant CO2 Emissions, • each plant is a greenfield unit are treated independently.)
Name Location million m.t./yr with a 500-MWe net generating
Taichung Taiwan 37.5 capacity Pulverized-coal power generation
Poryong South Korea 34.4 • it burns Illinois No. 6 high-sulfur Figure 1 shows the typical unit
Tuoketuo China 29.5 coal operations that are used in an
Vindhyachal India 26.4 • it has a capacity factor of 85% advanced pulverized-coal (PC) com-
Hekinan Japan 26.3 • emissions are controlled to some- bustion plant without CO2 capture.
Janschwalde Germany 24.9 what below today’s best demon- The system can be depicted as three
Miller Alabama 18.7 strated performance technology blocks: the boiler block,
Gibson Indiana 18.5
WA Parish Texas 18.3
• cost estimates are based on de- the steam-cycle turbine block, and the
tailed designs for a plant on the U.S. fluegas clean-up block. The design and
is IGCC generation, shown without ■ Figure 4. Application of commercial shift and CO2 removal technologies to an IGCC unit
CO2 capture in Figure 3. Typically, make it a viable option for power generation in a carbon-constrained world.
Table 2. Performance and costs of coal-fired power-generation technologies. higher compression costs at
higher elevations due to the
Subcritical PC Supercritical PC Oxy-Fuel PC IGCC lower ambient pressure have
Without With Without With With Without With a larger impact on overall
Capture Capture Capture Capture Capture Capture Capture IGCC economics. Under
these conditions, potentially
Heat Rate, Btu/Weh 9,550 13,600 8,870 11,700 11,200 8,890 10,900 significant reductions in the
Efficiency (HHV) 34.3% 25.1% 38.5% 29.3% 30.6% 38.4% 31.2% CO2 capture/recovery cost
CO2 Emitted, g/kWeh 931 127 830 109 104 824 101
for PC combustion could
Total Plant Cost, make it economically com-
$/kWeh $1,580 $2,760 $1,650 $2,650 $2,350 $1,770 $2,340 petitive with IGCC with
CO2 capture in certain appli-
Cost of Electricity cations. In addition, the
Investment Charge, power industry still has lin-
¢/kWeh @15.1% 3.20 5.6 3.35 5.37 4.77 3.59 4.75 gering concerns about the
Fuel, ¢/kWeh operability and availability
@$1.50/MMBtu 1.49 2.04 1.33 1.75 1.67 1.33 1.64
of IGCC.
O&M, ¢/kWeh 0.75 1.60 0.75 1.60 1.45 0.90 1.05
COE, ¢/kWeeh 5.45 9.24 5.43 8.72 7.9 5.82 7.44 Thus, it is too early to
close the door on any of
Cost of CO2 Avoided — 47.1 — 45.7 34.0 — 22.3 these technologies.
vs. Same Technoogy
Without Capture Rehabilitating coal’s
‘dirty’ reputation
Basis: 500-MWeh plant, Illinios No. 6 coal, 85% capacity factor, COE at bus-bar, in 2007 dollars. Coal-based power gener-
ation has the reputation of
scale, gasification with integrated bers include the cost of CO2 capture being dirty, largely based on air emis-
water-gas shift and CO2 removal is and compression to convert it to a sions considerations. Table 3 com-
commercially practiced for hydrogen supercritical fluid, but they do not pares the commercially demonstrated
production. However, they have yet include the cost of CO2 transport and and projected emissions performance
to be integrated and demonstrated at injection (discussed later). of conventional PC combustion and
the scale of operation required for Its lower COE would appear to IGCC (7, 9).
power generation. make IGCC the technology of choice Electrostatic precipitators (ESPs)
for CO2 management in power gener- or baghouses are employed on all
Points of comparison ation. However, oxy-fuel combustion U.S. PC units, so typical particulate
Table 2 summarizes the operating has significant potential. Further- matter (PM) emissions are very low.
and cost parameters associated with more, the cost difference between Improved ESP or wet ESP designs can
conventional PC combustion, oxy-fuel IGCC and conventional PC combus- reduce PM emissions even further, but
coal combustion, and IGCC technolo- tion narrows when lower-rank coals at a cost. Today, fluegas desulfuriza-
gies. These figures are indicative of are used and/or when the plant is tion (FGD) is applied on only a little
the costs for a plant built on the U.S. sited at a higher elevation. Because more than a third of U.S. PC capacity,
Gulf Coast in 2007 dollars, and allow IGCC requires greater levels of com- so typical SOx emissions remains quite
for comparison among the competing pression than PC combustion, the high. The “best commercial” perfor-
power-generation options.
Without CO2 capture, conventional Table 3. Commercially demonstrated and projected
PC combustion has the lowest cost of emissions performance of PC and IGCC power generation.
electricity; the COE for IGCC is about
Particulates, SO2, NOx, Mercury,
10% higher. However, when CO2 cap- Technology Case lb/MMBtu lb/MMBtu lb/MMBtu % removed
ture is considered, IGCC yields the
PC Plant Typical 0.02 0.22 0.11 —
lowest COE.
Best Commercial 0.015 0.04 0.03 90
The cost of CO2 capture and com- (99.5%) (99+%) (90+%)
pression for supercritical PC is about w/ CO2 Capture 0.01 0.0006 0.03 75–85
3.3¢/kWeh; for IGCC, it is about one- (99.5+%) (99.99%) (95+%)
half that, 1.6¢/kWeh. The cost of CO2 IGCC Plant
avoided is about $46/m.t. of CO2 for Best Commercial 0.001 0.015 0.01 95
conventional PC combustion, about (99.8%)
$34/m.t. for oxy-fuel combustion, and w/ CO2 Capture 0.001 0.005 0.01 95+
about $22/m.t. for IGCC. These num- (99.9%)