Professional Documents
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https://www.mergersandinquisitions.com
/twitter-buyout/
The Topic of the Day Week Month Year…
I’ll give you a very quick answer about
whether this deal works, and then we’ll
focus on a few specific parts of it.
• KEY PROBLEM #4: An M&A exit is not possible, and the exit
multiple and timing in an IPO are highly uncertain
And the List of Problems Goes On…
• $12.5 billion “Margin Loan”: Secured by Tesla shares, so what
happens if TSLA’s stock price falls even more?
• Time Required: Depends how much you want to use the real
deal documents and how much of an LBO model template you
start with (few hours up to several days)
• Elon’s Rollover Stake: Around 9-10%, but it’s unclear what his
cost basis is , so we’re using $35.00 to represent Twitter’s
share price in the Jan – March time frame
• So: Even with some Excess Cash used and the rollover of Elon’s
~9% stake, it’s still probably an additional $19 – 21 billion of
Investor Equity (Cash) to fund this deal
Part 3: Operating Cases/Scenarios
• Approach: Start with the “consensus” numbers for Twitter
based on research analysts’ forecasts and then move up or
down from there
Monetizable Daily
▪ 493 million ▪ 368 million ▪ 318 million ▪ 275 million
Active Users (mDAU)
EBITDA (Margin) ▪ $3.4 billion (18%) ▪ $3.7 billion (31%) ▪ $3.5 billion (37%) ▪ $1.8 billion (22%)
• But: Its cash flow profile is also important, and it’s not good
when you remove the huge Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)
add-back and treat it as a normal cash expense
• So: Term Loan + Senior Secured Bridge Loan will have ~$750
million in interest, Margin Loan will have ~$687 million, and
the Unsecured Bridge Loan will have $375 million
• Result #3: And stats like the Return on Invested Capital (ROIC),
Debt / EBITDA, and EBITDA / Interest improve by less than you
might expect
Part 5: Exit Assumptions
• TRUTH: No one – not even Elon Musk – is going to “sell”
Twitter for $100 billion to another company in 5-6 years
9.0 x
SNAP
8.0 x
MTCH
7.0 x R² = 0.6474
FY 22 TEV / Revenue
6.0 x
5.0 x KOSE:A035720
BMBL
FB
4.0 x PINS
3.0 x
TSE:4689
2.0 x WB
1.0 x
0.0 x
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0%
Projected Revenue Growth Range, FY 22 - 24
TEV / EBITDA Trading Multiples
0.0 x
50.0 x
100.0 x
150.0 x
200.0 x
250.0 x
300.0 x
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Purchase Multiple
Historical LTM EBITDA Multiples vs. Purchase Multiple:
2020-09-01
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2021-01-01
2021-03-01
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2021-09-01
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2022-05-01
Part 5: Exit Assumptions
• Conclusion: We think an exit multiple close to 50x is
implausible, as Twitter is a worse business than Snap,
Pinterest, and some of the other high-growth ones
• And: If you’re worth $250 billion like he is, that’s fine – but the
banks and PE firms backing this deal may not stay along for
the ride (note the 3-year maturity of the Margin Loan)