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07 12 Sensitivity Tables After
07 12 Sensitivity Tables After
- Financial Statements
($ in Millions, Except Per Share Amounts in Dollars and Share Counts in Thousands)
Valuation Date: 1/29/2010 Last Historical Year: 2009 Days in Year: 360
Company Name: Apple Inc. Debt Issue Date: 2010 Debt Amount: $1,000
Share Price: $192.06 Share Units: 1000 Tax Rate: 30%
Basic Shares Outstanding: 900,678 Options Calculations (in Thousands Except Exercise Price):
Basic Equity Value: $172,984
Diluted Shares Outstanding: 920,526 Exercise
Diluted Equity Value: $176,796 Name Number Price Dilution
Less: Cash & Investments $35,395 Tranche A 34,375 $81.17 19,847
Plus: Debt $0 Tranche B
Plus: Minority Interest $0 Tranche C
Plus: Preferred Stock $0 Tranche D
Plus: Other Liabilities $0 Tranche E
Enterprise Value: $141,401 Total 19,847
Historical Projections
FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010E FY 2011E FY 2012E FY 2013E FY 2014E
Equity Value / FCF: 37.3 x 20.8 x 17.1 x 13.5 x 12.1 x 10.9 x 10.1 x 9.1 x
P / E: 48.9 x 28.3 x 21.2 x 16.6 x 14.1 x 12.2 x 11.1 x 9.8 x
P / BV: 7.9 x 5.6 x 4.1 x 3.1 x 2.4 x 2.0 x 1.6 x
Operating Assumptions
Historical Projections
FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010E FY 2011E FY 2012E FY 2013E FY 2014E
Revenue Growth %: 27.2% 52.5% 14.4% 25.0% 17.0% 11.0% 9.0% 7.0%
COGS % Revenue: 66.2% 64.1% 59.0% 59.0% 59.0% 59.0% 59.0% 59.0%
R&D % Revenue: 2.4% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%
SG&A % Revenue: 11.1% 8.9% 8.3% 8.3% 8.3% 8.3% 8.3% 8.3%
Stock-Based Compensation % Revenue: 1.0% 1.4% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%
Depreciation & Amortization % Revenue: 1.3% 1.3% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%
Effective Cash Interest Rate: 5.3% 3.4% 1.4% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0%
Debt Interest Rate: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%
Effective Tax Rate: 30.2% 31.6% 31.8% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
Accounts Receivable % Revenue: 6.5% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8%
Accounts Receivable Days: 23.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2
Inventory % COGS: 2.1% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%
Amortization of Intangibles: $40 $37 $28 $13 $10
Accounts Payable % COGS: 23.0% 22.1% 22.1% 22.1% 22.1% 22.1% 22.1%
Accounts Payable Days: 82.6 79.6 79.6 79.6 79.6 79.6 79.6
Accrued Expenses % Operating Expenses: 102.9% 87.6% 87.6% 87.6% 87.6% 87.6% 87.6%
Short-Term Deferred Revenue % Revenue: 4.3% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8%
Long-Term Deferred Revenue % Revenue: 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
CapEx % Revenue: 3.0% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%
Income Statement
FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010E FY 2011E FY 2012E FY 2013E FY 2014E
Depreciation & Amortization of PP&E: $327 $496 $734 $918 $1,073 $1,192 $1,299 $1,390
Amortization of Intangibles: $0 $0 $0 $40 $37 $28 $13 $10
Stock-Based Compensation: $242 $516 $710 $888 $1,038 $1,153 $1,256 $1,344
Operating Income: $4,407 $8,327 $11,740 $14,635 $17,133 $19,030 $20,761 $22,218
Interest Income: $647 $653 $407 $424 $568 $1,443 $1,780 $3,223
Interest Expense: $0 $0 $0 ($45) ($90) ($90) ($90) ($90)
Other Income & Expense: ($48) ($33) ($81) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Pre-Tax Income: $5,006 $8,947 $12,066 $15,014 $17,610 $20,383 $22,450 $25,351
Income Tax Provision: $1,511 $2,828 $3,831 $4,504 $5,283 $6,115 $6,735 $7,605
Net Income: $3,495 $6,119 $8,235 $10,510 $12,327 $14,268 $15,715 $17,746
Earnings Per Share (EPS): $3.93 $6.78 $9.08 $11.59 $13.59 $15.73 $17.33 $19.56
Diluted Shares Outstanding: 889,292 902,139 907,005 907,005 907,005 907,005 907,005 907,005
Balance Sheet
FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010E FY 2011E FY 2012E FY 2013E FY 2014E
Assets:
Current Assets:
Cash & Cash-Equivalents: $11,875 $6,559 $20,620 $35,238 $51,396 $68,903 $88,285
Short-Term Securities: $10,236 $26,282 $26,282 $26,282 $26,282 $26,282 $26,282
Accounts Receivable: $2,422 $3,361 $4,201 $4,915 $5,456 $5,947 $6,364
Inventory: $509 $455 $569 $665 $739 $805 $861
Deferred Tax Assets: $1,044 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4
Other Current Assets: $3,920 $3,140 $3,140 $3,140 $3,140 $3,140 $3,140
Total Current Assets: $30,006 $39,801 $54,816 $70,245 $87,017 $105,082 $124,936
Long-Term Assets:
Long-Term Securities: $2,379 $2,554 $2,554 $2,554 $2,554 $2,554 $2,554
Plants, Property & Equipment: $2,455 $2,839 $3,352 $3,951 $4,617 $5,342 $6,118
Goodwill: $207 $207 $207 $207 $207 $207 $207
Other Intangible Assets: $285 $354 $314 $277 $249 $236 $226
Other Assets: $839 $2,011 $2,011 $2,011 $2,011 $2,011 $2,011
Total Assets: $36,171 $47,766 $63,253 $79,245 $96,654 $115,432 $136,052
Long-Term Liabilities:
Deferred Revenue: $768 $853 $1,066 $1,248 $1,385 $1,509 $1,615
Long-Term Debt: $0 $0 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000
Other Long-Term Liabilities: $1,745 $3,502 $3,502 $3,502 $3,502 $3,502 $3,502
Total Liabilities: $13,874 $15,861 $19,951 $22,577 $24,565 $26,371 $27,902
Shareholders' Equity:
Common Stock: $7,177 $7,177 $7,177 $7,177 $7,177 $7,177 $7,177
Additional Paid-In Capital: $0 $1,185 $2,073 $3,111 $4,263 $5,520 $6,864
Treasury Stock: $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Retained Earnings: $15,129 $23,364 $33,874 $46,201 $60,470 $76,185 $93,930
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income: ($9) $179 $179 $179 $179 $179 $179
Total Shareholders' Equity: $22,297 $31,905 $43,302 $56,668 $72,089 $89,061 $108,151
Total Liabilities & SE: $36,171 $47,766 $63,253 $79,245 $96,654 $115,432 $136,052
Investing Activities:
Purchases of Securities: ($11,719) ($22,965) ($46,724) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Proceeds from Maturities & Sales: $9,424 $16,243 $30,678 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Purchases of LT Investments: ($17) ($38) ($101) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Capital Expenditures: ($735) ($1,091) ($1,144) ($1,430) ($1,673) ($1,857) ($2,024) ($2,166)
Acquisition of Intangibles: ($251) ($108) ($69) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Other: $49 ($230) ($74) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Cash Flow from Investing: ($3,249) ($8,189) ($17,434) ($1,430) ($1,673) ($1,857) ($2,024) ($2,166)
Financing Activities:
Proceeds from Common Stock: $365 $483 $475 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Common Stock Repurchased: $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Dividends Issued: $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Tax Benefits from Stock-Based Comp: $377 $757 $270 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Raise / (Pay Off) Long-Term Debt $0 $0 $0 $1,000 $0 $0 $0 $0
Cash Used for Equity Awards: ($3) ($124) ($82) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Cash Flow from Financing: $739 $1,116 $663 $1,000 $0 $0 $0 $0
Increase / Decrease in Cash: $2,960 $2,523 ($5,316) $14,061 $14,618 $16,158 $17,507 $19,382
Cash & Cash Equivalents: $9,352 $11,875 $6,559 $20,620 $35,238 $51,396 $68,903 $88,285
Valuation Summary - Apple Inc.
($ in Millions, Except Per Share Amounts in Dollars and Share Counts in Thousands)
Valuation Statistics - Apple Inc. Apple Inc. - Range of Valuation Multiples / Premiums
25th 75th
Minimum Pecentile Median Pecentile
Methodology Name Multiple Multiple Multiple Multiple
Precedent Transactions:
Trailing EV / Revenue: 0.4 x 1.9 x 2.7 x 6.0 x
Forward EV / Revenue: 0.4 x 2.1 x 2.7 x 5.0 x
Trailing EV / EBITDA: 8.7 x 11.5 x 14.4 x 17.3 x
Forward EV / EBITDA: 9.6 x 13.4 x 19.1 x 23.9 x
2009 EV / Revenue:
2010E EV / Revenue:
2009 EV / EBITDA:
2010E EV / EBITDA:
2009 P / E:
2010E P / E:
Precedent Transactions
Trailing EV / Revenue:
Forward EV / Revenue:
Trailing EV / EBITDA:
Forward EV / EBITDA:
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
Projected
EBITDA EPS Revenue EBITDA Margin
2010E 2009 2010E Growth 2009 2010E
$ 18,186 $ 3.14 $ 3.87 8.4% 14.3% 14.6%
4,129 0.79 1.18 7.7% 6.7% 7.5%
12,774 0.97 1.38 18.3% 28.9% 31.0%
18,332 0.41 1.17 21.8% 38.8% 45.9%
1,927 (1.70) 0.14 (6.0%) 3.9% 8.7%
Enterprise Value /
EBITDA P / E Multiple
2010E 2009 2010E
6.8 x 15.0 x 12.2 x
3.7 x 16.4 x 10.9 x
8.4 x 23.1 x 16.3 x
5.1 x 47.2 x 16.6 x
5.5 x NM 44.6 x
Equity Enterprise
Acquirer Name Target Name Date Value Value
Hewlett-Packard Company 3Com 11/11/2009 $ 3,180 $ 2,714
Cisco Systems, Inc. Starent Networks 10/13/2009 2,777 2,386
Emerson Electric Co. Avocent 10/6/2009 1,114 1,147
EMC Corporation Data Domain 7/8/2009 2,362 2,085
Oracle Corporation Sun Microsystems 4/20/2009 7,075 5,392
Brocade Communication Systems, Inc. Foundry Networks 7/21/2008 2,899 2,063
WACC = Cost of Equity * % Equity + Cost of Debt * % Debt * (1 - Tax Rate) + Cost of Preferred Stock * % Preferred Stock
WACC 12.50%
d Stock * % Preferred Stock
Merger Model - Apple Inc. and Research in Motion Limited
($ in Millions, Except Per Share Amounts in Dollars and Share Counts in Thousands)
Transaction Assumptions
FY 2010E FY 2011E
Revenue: $53,631 $62,749 Revenue:
Cost of Goods Sold: $31,655 $37,037 Cost of Goods Sold:
Gross Profit: $21,976 $25,712 Gross Profit:
Operating Expenses: $5,496 $6,430 Operating Expenses:
Earnings Per Share (EPS): $11.59 $13.59 Earnings Per Share (EPS):
Diluted Shares Outstanding: 907,005 907,005 Diluted Shares Outstanding:
FY 2010E FY 2011E
Combined Revenue: $70,862 $83,617
Revenue Synergies: $1,723 $2,087
Cost of Goods Sold: $41,410 $48,905
Revenue Synergy COGS: $862 $1,043
Gross Profit: $30,313 $35,755
Sensitivity Analysis - Year 1 EPS Accretion/Dilution and Purchase Price vs. Operating Expense Synergies:
Sensitivity Analysis - Year 1 EPS Accretion/Dilution and Purchase Price vs. Revenue Synergies:
50.0%
10.0%
$174
8
$36,209
20.0%
$7,242
5
$2,225
FY 2010E FY 2011E
$17,231 $20,868
$9,755 $11,869
$7,476 $9,000
$2,698 $3,259
$431 $563
$359 $433
$52 $63
$3,937 $4,682
$25 $33
$3,962 $4,714
$1,148 $1,343
$2,814 $3,371
$5.03 $6.02
560,000 560,000
pense Synergies:
:
14.0% 16.0%
(6.0%) (5.7%)
(4.3%) (3.9%)
(2.5%) (2.2%)
(0.7%) (0.4%)
1.0% 1.4%
2.9% 3.2%
4.7% 5.0%
6.5% 6.9%
8.4% 8.7%
10.3% 10.6%
ue:
14.0% 16.0%
(4.6%) (3.6%)
(2.9%) (1.8%)
(1.1%) (0.1%)
0.7% 1.7%
2.5% 3.5%
4.3% 5.3%
6.1% 7.2%
8.0% 9.0%
9.8% 10.9%
11.7% 12.8%
Merger Model - Seller Diluted Share Count & Combined Balance Sheets
($ in Millions, Except Per Share Amounts in Dollars and Share Counts in Thousands)
Long-Term Liabilities:
Deferred Revenue: $853 $0 $0 $853
Long-Term Debt: $0 $0 $14,350 $14,350
Deferred Income Tax Liability: $0 $43 $2,181 $2,225
Other Long-Term Liabilities: $3,502 $28 $0 $3,530
Total Liabilities: $15,861 $2,238 $16,531 $34,630
Shareholders' Equity:
Common Stock: $7,177 $2,236 ($2,236) $7,177
Additional Paid-In Capital: $1,185 $139 $14,211 $15,535
Treasury Stock: $0 ($45) $45 $0
Retained Earnings: $23,364 $4,664 ($4,664) $23,364
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income: $179 ($8) $8 $179
Total Shareholders' Equity: $31,905 $6,987 $7,363 $46,255
Dilution
4,051
4,051
- Purchase Price:
Dilution
5,086
5,086
Combined