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Myanmar Weekly 2 February, 2015
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Myanmar Weekly 2 February, 2015
The 2015-16 Fiscal Year revenue target is projected at US$6bn, reported by The Daily Eleven Newspaper
on 29 January, 2015. The commercial tax will account for 40% or US$2.6, income tax will account for 36%
or US$2.1bn, natural resource tax at 1.4% or US$850mn, and customs duties at US$375mn, with a total
of US$5.948bn. This is about US$1bn more than the current fiscal year estimate. As of January, 70% of
about US$5bn tax has been collected before the fiscal year end.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) will finance in environmental conservation and tech sectors as part
of the US$30bn-valued projects in six Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) countries during 2014-18, an
announcement issued at the Fourth GMS Environment Ministers’ Meeting from January 27-29 2015.
Myanmar will receive funding for two projects for environmental conservation, and six for tech sector
development. The investment will assist development in ecotourism, agro-biodiversity products, green
value chains, land and energy utilization, environmental safeguards, and natural resource conservation of
the country. ADB has granted a total of US$240mn in loans in power, infrastructure, communications, and
transport sector for Myanmar.
About 1.7mn households can gain electricity in the next five years at a cost of US$670mn, reported The
Myanmar Times and The Daily Eleven Newspaper on 31 January, 2015. The Ministry of Electrical Power is
currently working with ADB and JICA to develop the National Electrification Plan, aiming to provide
electricity to the entire country by 2030. For the first phase of the plan, World Bank will provide US$400mn
interest-free loan, with 37-year repayment period. The loan will connect 1.7mn households to the grid
and other methods including solar, wind, and bio power by 2020. The World Bank said about 450,000
electricity lines annually will be needed to reach the planned 7.2mn households by 2030.
The country is currently generating 4,700 MW, reaching only about one third of its total households of
nine million. The electricity demand is rising at an average of 15% annually. International Finance
Corporation recently said that Myanmar has the potential to produce 100,000 MW from hydropower, 30
times the current capacity.
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Myanmar Weekly 2 February, 2015
Exchange rate for Myanmar Kyat closed on January 30, 2015 at MMK1,027.3 against USD, according to
Bloomberg.
This is compared to last week closing of MMK1,031, appreciated 0.36% w-o-w. Kyat has appreciated
0.52% y-o-y.
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The Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM) auctioned three-month Treasury bonds to the private banks for the
first time in history, reported The Daily Eleven Newspaper on 28 January 2015. The CBM issued MMK50bn
(US$50mn) worth of short-term bonds as an instrument to fight inflation, with ADB and IMF giving
technical support for bond auctions. Many remain on the sideline as only five banks out of about 40
licensed financial institutions entered the bid. The bidders include Myanma Economic Bank, Ayeyarwaddy
Bank, Yoma Bank, and Naypyitaw Si Bin Bank. Myanma Economic Bank won MMK20bn for 8% interest,
while Ayeyarwaddy Bank won MMK2bn for 8% interest. About 50% or MMK22bn was sold on the first
auction day. The CBM announced four auctions for three-month bonds till the end of the financial year,
with the 2nd time on February 18, 2015. The auctions will be held on Wednesdays, and the balances will
be issued two business days after, on Fridays. In addition to the three-month bonds, the Government is
planning to issue other short-term instruments including six-month and one-year bonds. The Wednesday
auction was the first time CBM has sold treasury bonds through a public bidding system.
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Myanmar Weekly 2 February, 2015
The Myanmar Government has issued three-year and five-year bonds through state-owned banks in 1993,
with the aim of promoting public savings. Two-year bonds were introduced in 2010.
Yoma Bank and Delhi-based Sohan Lal Commodity Management (SLCM) signed a MOU to provide
warehouse receipt financing, reported The Myanmar Times. SLCM has experience in providing such
programs in India for 165 agricultural products with eight partner banks and 600 warehouses in 20 Indian
states. The firm has a warehouse in Yangon that can store up to 8,000Mt of crops. The first program of its
kind in Yangon, traders and businesspeople can use crops to store at the SLCM warehouse as collateral
for loans from Yoma, aiming to fill the loan demand gap in agriculture sector. The program will initially
provide credit to traders and people with business licenses. The interest rate is 13% plus the maintenance
charges. The loan values will reach up to 60% of the crop, with terms depending on the longevity of the
crops.
Two more foreign banks, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ of Japan and Overseas Chinese Banking
Corporation (OCBC) from Singapore registered with Directorate of Investment and Company
Administration (DICA), reported The Daily Eleven Newspaper on 27 January, 2015. The Japanese bank
registered on 16 January, while the Singapore bank registered on 22 January. Another Japanese foreign
bank license winner, Sumitomo Mitsui registered on 9 January, 2015 to open the first Myanmar branch.
Myanmar Tourism Federation (MTF) is planning to establish the Tourism Development Bank in Yangon,
Mandalay, and Naypyitaw this year, reported Myanmar Business Today on 28 January, 2015. The bank is
to be structured as a public bank with hotel and tour operators as the targeted shareholders. The MTF
deputy chair, U Khin Maung Win, said the Federation has secured approval from the Central Bank to issue
and raise capital. The bank aims to provide financial assistance for the development to hotel and tourism
industry.
Myanmar Insurance Business Supervisory Board has allowed six private insurance companies with
MMK1bn (US$1mn) monthly revenue to conduct insurance transactions in US dollars, reported The Daily
Eleven Newspaper on 29 January, 2015. The approved companies will have to pay US$500,000 which
source will be inspected. The insurance limit is US$50,000, with insured depositing in US dollars.
Myanma Insurance, the state monopoly, has liberalized the industry with 12 companies permitted to
insure six types of insurance services to the general public. A new service, Special Travel Insurance, was
again permitted in May 2014. Most insurance companies are affiliates or subsidiaries of major
conglomerates in Myanmar. While US$1mn monthly revenue target seems to be high for the fledgling
insurance industry, the insurance companies may receive the financial backing of the parent companies.
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Myanmar Weekly 2 February, 2015
The Norwegian Investment Fund for Developing Countries (Norfund) has recently acquired the right to
take up to 25% equity stake in local microfinance company (MFI), reported The Myanmar Times. Norfund
is Norway’s development arm for combating poverty through private-sector development. The company
has a right to invest in Myanmar Financial International, jointly owned by London’s AIM-listed Myanmar
Investments International and Myanmar Finance Corporation. In its filing with AIM, Myanmar Investment
reported the third tranche financing of US$750,000 to be contributed by the owners to the microfinance
firm. Both parent companies plan to distribute US$2.05mn in 2015 as a fourth tranche of capital. Norfund
will be able to exercise its options, which will expire in September 2016, during the fourth tranche
financing.
Myanmar Finance Corporation was established in 2012, and as of 2014, the MFI claimed 10,000 clients
with a loan portfolio of US$780,000.
CONSTRUCTION
18,000 Apartments Planned in Yangon, Pathein, Mawlamyine
The Department of Human Settlement and Housing Development said six townships in Yangon will see
almost 10,000 apartment units constructed in FY 2015-16, reported Myanmar Business Today on 29
January, 2015. Another 8,000 new apartments will be constructed in Pathein from Ayeyarwaddy Division
and Mawlamyine from Mon State during the new fiscal year. Yangon City Development Committee (YCDC)
has processed permits for Dagon Seikkan, South Dagon, Thinganyun, Mingalardon, Hlaing Tharyar, and
Thanlyin Townships in Yangon. YCDC, itself, is currently developing 5,000 apartments during the current
fiscal year, while the total number of housing units developed by public and private sectors are expected
to exceed 20,000 units at fiscal year-end. In 2012-13, about 1,672 apartments were constructed, and it is
expected that 43,000 new apartments will be added between 2013 and 2016.
A local private company is negotiating with the Mon state government for the final approval for a
US$12mn beach resort project, reported Myanmar Business Today on 27 January, 2015. Aurum Company
is proposing a project on 12.8km Kanbyar Beach, which will involve a 120-room hotel, offices, restaurants,
swimming pools and other facilities. If implemented, the resort will add to three other beach destinations
in Myanmar: Ngapali, Chaungtha, and Ngwe Saung.
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Myanmar Weekly 2 February, 2015
The Mon State government is encouraging both local and foreign investment to build high-rise buildings,
and develop eco-tourist sites.
INFRASTRUCTURE
Yangon Roads Require Major Investment for Upgrade
JICA estimates that vehicle use in Yangon would rise by 22-fold by 2035, calling for large investment in the
roads and infrastructure, reported The Daily Eleven Newspaper on 28 January, 2015. JICA is helping the
government with the Urban Transport Master Plan of the Greater Yangon (YUTRA) which will address
long-term solutions for the city’s infrastructure. The agency estimated US$10bn investment required to
upgrade the roads, railway networks, mass rapid transport system, and traffic management system.
Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) will provide technical assistance and machinery upgrade
for Ba Lu Chaung No.2 Hydroelectric Plant, reported The Daily Eleven Newspaper on 27 January, 2015. The
assistance, slated to be complete by 2016, will be a part of Grand Aid of US$67mn. Located in Kayah State,
the hydroelectric plant has been in operation for over 60 years since 1954, built by the Japanese as a war
reparation. In 1980, there was a major maintenance at the plant using Japan’s Official Development
Assistance (ODA) loans. The hydroelectric plant has the capacity to provide 10% of the country’s electricity
needs. Japan is also helping Myanmar develop the National Electricity Master Plan.
Myanmar has only 26% household access to electricity, the lowest among the ASEAN members.
Three companies applied for the Yangon Station Upgrade tender which closed early January, according to
The Daily Eleven Newspaper on 27 January, 2015. The project to upgrade the historic Yangon Station on
25.3 hectare land, included housing, stations, and international standard facilities. About nine foreign and
local companies took tender forms, including local conglomerates such as Shwe Taung Development and
Shwe Thanlwin Group. The foreign candidates include joint venture companies from Japan, China,
Singapore, Canada, and Taiwan companies. The project showed a good interest when Expression of
Interest (EOI) was called for last year April, with 34 companies indicating interest in the project. While the
applicants are not disclosed yet, the Ministry of Transport said the tender process will be transparent.
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Myanmar Weekly 2 February, 2015
Manufacturing
Myanmar’s Garment Industry Sees High Growth Potential
After dormant activity due to international sanctions for about a decade, Myanmar’s garment industry is
poised to grow with very strong prospects. Mizzima reported on 29 January, 2015 that the garment
industry will employ a million workers in the next few years. U Myint Soe, chair of Myanmar Garment
Manufacturers Association, said that about 250,000 workers are currently employed in the industry. The
wage ranges between US$85 (MMK85,000) and US$110 (MMK110,000) depending on the skills. The work
hours averages at 50 hours a week, which can go up to 62 hours when demand is high. Myanmar still
possesses a very low wage option among Southeast Asian countries, and manufacturers from China and
Hong Kong indicated plans to move some of their operations to the country.
The leading export markets for Myanmar consist of Japan 48%, South Korea 33%, and European Union
14%.
Trade
Direct Shipping Service between Yangon and Shanghai
China Shipping Container Lines Co. (CSCL) commenced a direct shipping service between two China’s
coastal cities and Yangon, reported The Daily Eleven Newspaper on 27 January, 2015. The new Myanmar-
China JV Company, China Shipping Myanmar Company, will start container business in Yangon and carry
cargos from Shanghai and Ning Bo to Yangon Port. The service will involve four vessels a month, with a
nominal capacity of 1,100 TEU (twenty-foot equivalent unit) each, delivery a weekly service. Currently,
most Chinese exports come from Singapore Port, which takes 18 days. The new route will shorten the trip
by four days to reach Yangon.
Myanmar Business Today also reported that China is Myanmar’s largest sea trade partner, with 350,000
TEUs last year. The WTO data suggested that trade between Myanmar and China grew at an average of
16% annually between 2009 and 2013.
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KEY MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
Indicator FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014/15e FY2015/16f
National accounts
Nominal GDP, kyats, bn 39,850 43,400 47,430 54,434 62,572 73,042
Nominal GDP, US$bn 49.6 56.2 55.3 59.4 60.3 73.6
Real GDP growth, y-o-y, % 5.3 5.9 7.3 8.3 8.7 8.5
Government finance
Revenue, % of GDP 11.4 12.0 23.3 24.8 24.2 24.0
Expenditure, % of GDP 16.9 16.6 25.0 26.5 28.7 28.6
Budget balance, % of GDP -5.5 -4.6 -1.7 -1.7 -4.5 -4.6
Balance of payments
Exports, US$mn 8,829 10,228 10,345 11,947 14,678 16,666
of which: Gas 2,657 3,282 3,563 4,311 5,805 6,037
Imports, US$mn 8,184 10,437 12,464 13,992 16,332 19,863
Exports, y-o-y, % 25.8 10.1 2.2 15.5 22.9 13.5
Imports, y-o-y, % 15.8 23.8 19.1 12.3 16.7 21.6
Trade balance, US$mn 799 -372 -2,140 -2,045 -1,654 -3197
FDI, net, US$mn 2,200 2,100 2,900 4,100 5,000 5,200
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Myanmar Weekly 2 February, 2015
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Myanmar Weekly 2 February, 2015
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Myanmar Weekly 2 February, 2015
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PROPERTY INDEX
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Myanmar Weekly 2 February, 2015
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