MULTIPLICATION RULES AND BAYES THEOREM

1. The probability that a man will hit a target is 1/5. If he shoots the target until he
hits it for the first time, find the probability that it will take him 7 shots to hit the
target. (Round your answer to four decimal places if necessary.)

2. Suppose that start-up companies in the area of communication have probability

0.422 of becoming profitable and that those in the area of transportation have
probability of 0.594 of becoming profitable. An investor invests in one firm of each
type. Assume the companies function independently. (Round your final answers to four
decimal places if necessary.)

a. What is the probability that both companies become profitable?

b. What is the probability that neither company become profitable?

Answer: 

c. What is the probability that at most one of the two companies become profitable?

3. Francesca has entered a golf gold tournament but it is not certain whether Neveah
will enter. Francesca has probability 1/10 of winning the tournament if Neveah will
enter and 21/100 probabillity of winning if Neveah does not enter the tournament. If
the probability that Neveah enters in 19/100, find the probability that Francesca wins
the tournament.

(Express your answer as a fraction in simplest form or as a decimal rounded to four

decimal places.)

4. Janai and Skylar play 15 games of chess, of which 8 are won by Janai, 4 are won by
Skylar, and 3 end in a draw. They agree to play a tournament consisting of 3 games.
Find the probability that:

(Round your answers to four decimal places if necessary.)

a) Janai wins all 3 games.

 0.1517
Answer:  Correct

b) 2 games end in a draw.

0.04
Answer:  Incorrect

c) Janai and Skylar win alternatively.

0.1137
Answer:  Incorrect

d) Skylar wins at least one game.

0.0002
Answer: 

5. Many companies are testing prospective employees for drug use, with the intent of
avoiding possible conflicts in the company. Suppose a company uses a test that is
91.08% accurate - that is, it correctly identifies a person as a drug user or nonuser with
probability 0.9108 - and to reduce the chance of error, each job applicant is required to
take the test twice. If the outcomes of the two tests on the same person are
independent events, what are the probabilities of these events? (Round your final
answers to four decimal places if necessary.)

a) A nonuser fails both tests.

Answer: 

b) A drug user is detected (i.e., he/she fails at least one test).

Answer: 
c) A drug user passes both test

6. A drag racer has two parachutes, a main and a backup, that are designed to bring
the vehicle to a stop after the end of a run. Suppose the main chute deploys with
probability 0.891 and if the main fails to deploy, the backup deploys with probability
0.943. (Round your final answers to four decimal places if necessary.)

a) What is the probability that one of the two parachute deploys?

Answer: 

b) What is the probability that the backup parachute deploys?

Answer: 
7. A system consists of four components connected as show in the diagram:

Assume A, B, C, and D function independently. If the probabilities that A, B, C, and D

functions are 0.872, 0.416, 0.631, and 0.693, respectively, what is the probability that
the system functions? (Round your answer to four decimal places if necessary.)
Answer: 

8. A certain manufactured bag is visually inspected by two different quality control

inspectors. When a defective bag comes through the line, the probability that it gets by
the first inspector is 0.052. Of those the get past the first inspector, the second
inspector will miss seven out of fifteen. What fraction of the defectives get by both
inspectors? (Enter your answer as a fraction in simplest form.)

9. A system consists of four components connected as shown in the following diagram:

Assume A, B, C, and D function independently. If the probabilities that A, B, C, and D fail
are 0.249, 0.198, 0.195, and 0.237 respectively, what is the probability that the system
functions? (Round your answer to four decimal places if necessary.)

10.
Urn A has 10 white and 10 black balls; Urn B, 10 white and 5 black; and Urn C, 5 white
and 8 black. An urn is selected at random, and a ball drawn from it at random is found
to be white. Find the probability that Urn A was selected.

(Express your answer as a fraction in simplest form or as a decimal rounded to four

decimal places.)