Timothy Vergne-Epidemiologist from Toulouse

Modeling of Infectious Disease

*Surveillance Systems Evaluation*
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza

Emerging Disease:
- A new disease (Nipah virus, Schamilenberg)
- Spread of a known disease to new territory……. sometimes because of climototlogy
changes. (ebola, dengue, H5N8)
- A disease that has been there and is increasing in frequencies. (ebola , Zika)
- A spillover disease, from one specie to other, invading a new population.
Potential factors for disease emergence:
- Climate change (Zika, Blue tongue (transmitted by biting ,
- Destroy of habitat (Rabies, Nipah Virus “bats start feeding closer to animal
productions”Pigs) human encroachment in wild territories.
- Increase in trade (Foot and mouth disease, swine fever, Avian influenza)
- Intensive livestock farming (AMR (ecoli in Feedlots in USA), Respiratory diseases, (TBC))
- People traveling (Covid,
- Lack of hygiene in food production (Salmonella,
- Changes of demographic and Behavior (like measles in UK “because don’t want to
vaccinate”..or HIV
- Changes in technology and industry ( BSE, AMR)

Dilusion effect: Increasing biodiverstity, reduces chances of emerging diseases, like Lyme
disease. In vector borne diseases more chances of spreading the disease than before.
Also applying it to natural transmitted diseases.
External biosecurity: to revent the pathogen entering the farm.
Internal biosecurity: to prevent transmission inside farm and out of the farm.

1. *The emergence of diseases*

2. *The emergence of pandemics*
Dramatic Consequences:
African Swine Fever:
- Detected in 1930s
- Still circulating in Sardinia at present.
- Kills a piglet with very high probability, Wild boar also 90% change of get infected.
- Wild Hogs in Africa can be carriers without symptoms
- The virus can survice food processing methods and can in live for long periods in the
environment.
- Started I Georga first in Europe, from a boat coig form Mozambique, with food leftovers.
-->In 2007
- First hematomas then deaths
- Currently present in wild boras and domestic pigs in all Asia and some parts of Europe…
eventually can not be stopped currently…..in 2019 was found in wild boars in Belgium
and Check republic. …… If gets hunted changes of moving boars to new areas.

History of HPAI in France

*2015-2016: -- H5N1, H5N2, H5N9, -- France , -- 81 notifeid aoutbreaj
(in summer it stopped)
*2016-2017: - - H5N8 clade 2.3.4.4, --- Europe, -- 485 notified outreaks, --Foi-gras duck farms+
++
*In winter 2020-2021 massive outbreak in wild birds
- Germany most affected for wild birds
- France most affected for domestic poultry
Modelling transmission and control
- Idea is to medol the espected transmission of the disese.
- Try to predict where it will spread over time.
- Reltive susceptiblility ..Taking into account factors susch as:
o Distance
o Trade network
o Species susceptible
If the specie secrets more the virus.
o Associated biosecurity practices
- Modeling future behavior with the available information gathered until now.
- Simulate deferent transmission scenariosassuming the implementing of diffrents control
measures.
 -
 space-time survival model
 Palmiped VS galliform farms
 Implementing of S/P sones and preventing culling

o Duck farms2.5 times more infectious

o Duck farms 5.0 times more susceptibe
- Simulation model with the implementatiton of a control measure
- Simuation model whtout the implementation of a control measure, to give realistic
moediggn graph

*What explained the spatial distribution of the outbreak?*

- Duck movements seem to have palyed an important role in the spatial distributionof the
outbreaks.
- (Trade of ducks between farms):
-This was 2016-2017
In 2020-2021:
- To Improve surveillance strategy
 Feather pulp (raher than tracheal pulp and cloacal swab), in feathers high
concentration of virus.
 Dust also
Statistical anlysis to find out.

Study breakoutto find out the source of infection

Used Mortality rate, used dynamics of the disease observed until that time.
Divide individuals into the different susceptibe stages: Suceptibel, Infectable, Infectious, Dead,
Recovered
- Need to manage parameter of infectious Rate.
- Numebr of dead individuals, Death Incidence.
- Can give Transmission Rate
- Use of latent Period
- Could predict that 3 to 6 days before the reported of sudden numerous deaths, the
infection happened.--> SOURCE
All models are wrong, but some are useful
Importance of Modieling
- Predictions of what could liekley happen
- Allos to understand what is happenining
- Estimate R0
- Dtermine the role of defferent hosts
- Identifying drivers of spreadquantify the realitve contribution of different transmission
routes
- Evaluate the effectiveness of current
- Strategies
- Estimeate epidemic size and measures?
Necessary:

 Tools
 Data
 Resources