The news of Pfizer’s positive coronavirus vaccine results will boost service

businesses and the economy, if and when the vaccine helps get the pandemic under
control. But better economic prospects will cause interest rates to rise. As a result,
the 10-year Treasury note’s rate will likely rise above 1% before the end of the year. If
the vaccines from Pfizer and others are effective in practice, the 10-year rate will
likely rise at least another half of a percentage point in 2021. However, if Congress
fails to pass another stimulus package, then rates will likely tick down temporarily.

Mortgage interest rates have likely hit their low point and will edge slightly
upward from now on. Last week, the 30-year fixed rate hit its lowest point since the
Freddie Mac rates survey began in 1971 — 2.78% (the 15-year rate was 2.32%). The
rise in the 10-year Treasury rate means that the gap between it and mortgage rates is
close to the historical norm.

The Federal Reserve at its most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting
recommitted itself to keeping short-term interest rates near zero for the
foreseeable future, which likely means through 2024. The Fed is also continuing to
purchase $80 billion of Treasury securities and $40 billion of mortgage-backed
securities every month, adding to its balance sheet. The Fed is “all in” to do whatever
it takes to support the economy. Its statement said that it will be willing to tolerate
inflation levels above 2% for a time. That means that the Fed will not raise short-
term rates even if inflation begins to pick up, but leaves unspecified when it would
act to curb inflation.

Corporate high-yield bond rates have eased after the election, perhaps indicating
greater business confidence. CCC-rated yields are at 10.8%, down from 11.7% at the
end of October, and have closed the gap slightly with higher-rated bonds. AAA bonds
yielded 1.62% and BBB bonds, 2.32%.

Source: Federal Reserve Open Market Committee

 Previou Highes Lowe
Actual s t st Dates Unit Frequency
04.00 04.00 0,5520 04.00 2005 - percent Daily
8 2020

Previou Consensu TEForeca

Calendar GMT Reference Actual s s st
16/07/2020 7.30 4% 4.25% 4.0% 4.25%
AM

19/08/2020 7.30 4% 4% 4.00% 4.00%

AM
17/09/2020 7.30 4% 4% 4% 4.00%
AM
13/10/2020 7.30 4% 4% 4% 4%
AM
19/11/2020 7.30 4% 4%
AM

Source : Trading
Economic

a. Asumsi interest rate pada tahun 2021 berkisar antara 2,4% sampai 4% karena situasi sudah
mulai membaik dan kegiatan ekonomi sudah kembali berjalan.
b. Sebaiknya menggunakan investasi moderat dengan 30% dikarenakan harus adanya antisipasi
akan kondisi yang kembali melemah dan masih belum stabil untuk saat ini