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As per the Price Waterhouse Coopers (PWC) long-term economic growth projections related to GDP to
2050 for 32 of the largest economies in the world in February 2017, the global Real GDP growth (at PPP
rates) was projected to be about 3.4% in 2019 followed by 3.5% in 2020 and average of 3.5% from 2021
to 2025. By 2050, PWC indicates the world economy doubling in size, outstripping population growth,
due to continued technology-driven productivity improvements. The Emerging Markets were likely to
grow twice as fast as advanced economies (G7) on average. As a result, six of the seven largest
economies of the world are projected to be emerging economies in 2050 led by China, India and
Indonesia. The United States is projected to be down to third place in the global GDP rankings. UK could
be down to the tenth place, France out of the top ten and Italy out of the top twenty as they are likely to be
overtaken by faster growing emerging economies like Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam respectively. In order
for this to occur, emerging economies are required to enhance their institutions and their infrastructure
significantly. Vietnam, the Philippines, and Nigeria could very well make the greatest moves up the
rankings.
The World Economic Outlook growth projections before the outbreak of COVID 19 as per IMF was 3.3
% growth in 2020 and 3.4 % growth in 2021.
1. As per World Bank, Real GDP growth in South Asia before COVID-19
2019
Country/Year 2018 2020 (f) 2021 (f)
(e)
Afghanistan (CY) 1.0 2.5 3.2 3.5
Bangladesh (FY) 7.9 7.3 7.4 7.3
Bhutan (FY) 5.7 5.4 5.4 5.2
India (FY) 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.5
Maldives (CY) 7.9 5.7 5.2 5.3
Nepal (FY) 6.3 6.0 6.1 6.2
Pakistan (FY, factor
5.8 3.4 2.7 4.0
prices)
Sri Lanka (CY) 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.7
Source: World Bank CY: Calendar Year, FY: Fiscal Year, e: Estimate, f: Forecast
Since the outbreak of Covid-19 in the world, and the countries being in lockdown state, the growth of
South Asian countries seems plummeting in 2020, but will eventually uplift in 2021 after the effect of
Covid-19 is faded away, as per the IMF.
As per the IMF projections as of April 2020 for South Asian Region, projections of 2021 is in increasing
trend but this scenario can only occur if the situation gets normal. Since the cases of Covid -19 is in
increasing trend and the countries been in the lockdown state, there is very slim chance to achieve the
economic growth in 2021 as per projections of IMF.
Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS
Credit to GDP Projections for next 6 years as given below, give us an indication of the market growth that
will be there till 2025, in order to find out the size of the market opportunity that will be there. Based
upon these projections, the GDP size is projected to cross around NPR 6.3 Trillion, and domestic credit
by banking sector is also projected to almost reach around NPR 6.2 Trillion.
Even at realistic and fairly modest GDP Growth projection of 6% p.a. till 2025, the domestic credit by
BFIs in the country is projected to rise to NPR 6,284 Billion by 2025, which is expected to be 99% of the
projected GDP at nominal prices by then.
Amount in Rs Billions
Real GDP 698 950 252 1,235 285
Nominal GDP 1,695 3,459 1,764 6,347 2,888
Domestic Cr. by
956 2,914 1,958 6,284 3,370
BFIs
Domestic Credit to
56% 84% 28% 99% 15%
GDP (in %)
Deposits 1,250 3,354 2,104 7,216 3,862
Deposit to GDP (in
74% 97% 23% 114% 17%
%)
The following learnings are there for us from the above table:
The risk assets market is projected to increase by 15% over 6 years, including the current fiscal
year.
The market growth in credit for next 6 years till 2025 is expected to be NPR 3,370 Billion
The projected increment in market size as above is around 1.15 times of what the size is currently
(NPR 2,914 Billion)
Although the projected figures look fairly bigger than compared to the last five years’ average
data, the trend of growth in the last several years point to a realistic projection.
The opportunity for market shares growth is thus tremendous and a focused approach along with
a strategy to disrupt the market will be required to grab reasonable market shares in the
incremental growth projection of the market.
National Pride Location Remarks
Project of Nepal
Sikta Irrigation Banke District of the
Project Mid-Western The Project area comprises 34 Village Development Committees
Development Region. (VDCs) and the municipality of Nepalgunj, which is the District
Province – 5 headquarter
Rani-Jamariya- Tikapur, Kailali
Kularia Irrigation District of Far-Western Eastern sector of Kailali district
Project Development Region
Province – 7
Upper Tamakoshi Lamabagar VDC of
Hydropower Dolakha District, The intake for the hydropower plant is located at Lamabagar
Project Janakpur Zone, Central Village, which lies at direct distances of about 6 km south of the
Development Region border with China (Tibet) and 32 km north to northeast of the
Province – 3 Dolakha District centre, Charikot.
West Seti Seti River in the Far
Hydropower Western Development The project is located in parts of 20 VDCs: 4 in Baitadi District, 5
Project Region in Bajhang District: 1 in Dadeldhura District and 10 in Doti
Province – 7 District.
Pokhara Regional Chhinne Danda in the
International city of Pokhara, Kaski The new airport will serve as the aerial gateway to the Himalayan
Airport District, Gandaki zone, and Annapurna regions in Nepal. It is anticipated to handle one
Western Nepal million passengers a year
Province – Gandaki
Pashupati Area Pashupatinath Temple The trust established to conserve and operate the Pashupatinath
Development Province – 3 Temple and other charitable institution in the Pashupatinath
Project UNESCO World Heritage Sites area.
Mid-Hills 1776 km. of road from Chiyabhanjyang of Panchathar in the East to Jhulaghat of Baitadi
Pushpalal Highway East to West in the Far-west – a distance of 1776 km. – through a total of 24
districts and 225 VDCs.
Terai Hulaki Marg Highway begins from 20 to 30 kilometres south, parallel to the East-West highway. The
Bhadrapur, Jhapa Hulaki highway begins from Bhadrapur, Jhapa district in the east
and stretches all the way to the far-western border with India in
Kanchanpur district. This highway connects all the 20 districts of
the Terai.
North-South Province – 4 & 5 The total length of this North-South Kaligandaki Corridor
Kaligandaki highway is 435 kilometers, its 42 kilometers falls in Gulmi district,
Corridor and 38 kilometers fall in Baglung district.
Kathmandu-Terai Province – 3 The 72.5 km long Fast Track runs along the Bagmati River
Expressway corridor and is expected to cut the travel distance from the capital
Kathmandu to the south of the country by 159 km as per existing
roads. The Fast Track originates at Sano Khokana of Lalitpur
Metropolitan City (south of Kathmandu) and stretches to Nijghad
in Bara district in Nepal’s southern plains (known as
Terai/Madhes). There it will meet with the East-West (Mahendra)
Highway of the country.
President Chure- 31 Ditricts - Ilam, Jhapa, Morang, Sunsari, Saptari, Sirah,
Terai Madhesh Udaypur, Dhanusa, Mahotari, Sindhuli, Sarlahi, Rautahat, Bara,
Conservation Area Parsa, Chitwan, Nawalparasi, Rupandehi, Kapilvastu, Dang,
Program Banke, Bardia, Kailali, Kanchanpur, Makawanpur, Arghakhanchi,
Palpa, Surkhet, Dadeldhura, Doti, Salyan, Pyutha
Bheri-Babai Banke and Bardiya To achieve round the year irrigation for 51,000 ha agricultural land
Diversion Province – 5 of Banke and Bardiya districts and generate 46 MW electricity by
Multipurpose transfering 40 m3/sec of water from Bheri River to Babai River
Project (water surplus basin to water deficit basin) by completing the
project
Budhigandaki Central/ Western The project lies in Gorkha and Dhading districts in Western/
Hydropower Development region on Central Development region of Nepal. The project site is
Project the Budhi Gandaki accessible through Benighat (At about a distance of 80 km from
River Kathmandu) on Prithvi Highway (Kathmandu - Pokhara). From
Province – 3 Benighat, a motorable composite bridge can be used to cross the
Trishuli River and access the Dam and Powerhouse site both of
which are at a distance of about 1.5 km from the road head
Gautam Buddha Siddharthanagar
Regional Municipality in The project will open enormous economic opportunities to the
International Rupandehi District tourism and other sectors of the region.
Airport Province – 5
Second Bara, Terai district, The new airport will facilitate India’s heavily populated states of
International Southeastern Nepal Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. It will give rise to a new economic boom
Airport, Nijgarh, Province – 2 in the region.
Bara
Lumbini Area Lumbini The main objective of the plan is to develop Lumbini as an
Development Province – 5 international centre for world peace, prosperity and harmony.
Project
East-West Railway Location – 21 Terai districts.
Total Length 943km (including links Kohalpur-Nepalgunj,
Butwal-Bhiraha-Lumbini, Itahari-Biratnagar 1056km)
Passes through major towns along East West Highway like
Birtamod, Damak, Itahari,Inaruwa,Lahan, Rajbiraj, Bardibas,
Chapur, Hetauda, Narayanghat, Butwal, Lamahi, Kohalpur,
Attariya, Mahendranagar
North-South Koshi Panchthar to Sunsari is The Koshi Corridor Highway is the shortest route connecting
Corridor 148 kilometres. people of Panchthar, Taplejung, Terhathum and Dhankuta to cities
like Biratnagar and to other parts of the country.
Melamchi Melamchi valley The project's zone of impact in Melamchi Valley includes 14
Drinking Water Province – 3 VDCs out of 79 VDCs of Sindhupalchowk district. 11 VDCs are
Project directly affected and 3 are taken as indirectly affected VDCs. It is
predicted that the project will have significant effect on the
environmental and socio-economic aspects of the Melamchi
valley.
Mid Hill Highway – 1776 KM from Eastern Middle Hills to Wester Middle Hills with 24 districts
and 225 VDCs. 10 Big Cities planned are:
Phidim, Panchthar Basantpur, Terhathum Khurkot, Sindhuli Baireni, Dhading
Dumre Bhansar, Chaurjahari, Rukum Burtibang, Rakam Karnali, Dailekh
Tanahu Baglung
Sanfebagar, Accham Patan, Baitadi
Hulaki Highway & Ten new cities along Hulaki highway: (Length 1,792.42 Km)
Gaurigunj, Jhapa Rangeli, Morang
Mahagadhimai, Bara Ishwarpur, Sarlahi
Shambhunath, Balwa & Sarpallo, Mahottari
Saptari
Rajapur, Bardiya Bardaghat, Nawalparasi
Belauri, Kanchanpur Bhajani Trishakti, Kailali
REMITTANCE
The onslaught of the Covid-19 pandemic continues around the world, and has impacted many industries
like Oil, Travel, Tourism, Hospitality, Airlines, and Remittance. The number of Nepalese citizens
immigrating to foreign countries for employment has seen an increasing trend year after year. The
primary destinations of Nepali migrants are Malaysia, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates. As
of the March 2020, Nepal ranks at the 19th position in highest remittance-receiving countries in terms of
volume, and in the 4th position in terms of ratio of remittance-to-GDP. Remittance plays several positive
roles in Nepalese economy, contributing to the reduction of poverty and unemployment while
maintaining foreign exchange reserve and correcting the balance of payments. In the fiscal year
2018/2019, the share of Agriculture Forestry Fishing to GDP was found to be diminishing but the
proportion of Remittance to GDP was increasing. Labor shortage problems in agriculture as well as non-
agricultural sectors are increasing as youths seek out foreign employment. Thus, the Nepalese economy is
transforming from an agriculture-based economy to a remittance-based economy.
Remittance flows are expected to fall across globe, most notably in Europe and Central Asia (27.5
percent), followed by Sub-Saharan Africa (23.1 percent), South Asia (22.1 percent), the Middle East and
North Africa (19.6 percent), Latin America and the Caribbean (19.3 percent), and East Asia and the
Pacific (13 percent). Remittances to South Asia are projected to decline by 22 percent to $109 billion in
2020, following the growth of 6.1 percent in 2019. The deceleration in remittances to the South Asian
region in 2020 is driven by the global economic slowdown due to the coronavirus outbreak as well as oil
price declines.
The International Monetary Fund has projected Nepal's five years remittance with slight decrease in this
and upcoming fiscal year. With the growth in the flow of Nepal's remittance to Rs. 977 Billion,
In the last 10 years 3,956,701 workers have migrated for foreign employment. Among them, 1.5 percent
were skilled workers, 24 percent were semi-skilled, and 74.5 percent were non-skilled. 167 countries have
opened up foreign employment, with the latest being Jordan and Oman. Overall national saving has been
increased due to high growth rate of remittance income, which accounted for 25.4% of GDP in 2019.
YTD (76/77)
2072/73 2073/74 2074/75 2075/76
Chaitra
Amount in Millions
Nation Amt Nation Amt Nation Amt Nation Amt Nation Amt
12,41 13,77 33,91
India 11,799 India India India India 24,422
9 1 1
12,38
Top 4 Qatar 7,462 Qatar 6,880 UAE 9,035 UAE UAE 8,422
5
Nations
UAE 2,461 UAE 4,398 S.Korea 8,249 Qatar 6,012 Qatar 6,396
Saudi Saudi
Malaysia 1,728 771 Qatar 6,054 S.Korea 3,231 2,998
Arabia Arabia
S.Korea 365 S.Korea 752 Malaysia 2494 Japan 351 Bahrain 340
Malaysi Saudi
Bottom Bahrain 211 279 1668 Bahrain 349 UK 34
a Arabia
4
Saudi
Nations 62 Bahrain 245 Bahrain 148 Jordan 58 Jordan 16
Arabia
UK 3 UK 28 Kuwait 4