THC Company S.A.S Forecast Sales Analysis.

1. Introduction:
In the following procurement logistics project, you will find a fictitious company made by the
previously named students. The name of the fictitious company for the project is THC Company S.A.S, it
is a company that produces dried flower cannabis for medicinal uses located in the warm lands adjacent to
Girardot; It is important to inform the reader in advance about the product and the operation of the
company if it arises in real life. The first and fundamental thing is to know that the product to be produced
(Dry Cannabis Flower) is an organic product exclusively for medicinal purposes and lacking in THC (No
hallucinogenic properties), it is a product that requires 4 months to go through all the necessary processes
(Planting, growing, cutting, drying, and packaging), before its harvest and this depending on the planting
method used. For reasons of the project and facilitation in obtaining statistical data, the student authors of
the project carried out the project assuming of having a cyclical plantation of dried cannabis flowers,
which produces and gives benefits on a monthly basis.
2. Market Analysis.
In order to estimate and analyze the profit of our new company in the market, we must carry out a
market analysis of the existing companies. Therefore, we are going to consider the multinational
companies with the most participation in the Colombian market in recent years. Your data and sales
estimates are presented in the following table.
Table 1.

Market Analysis
Years
in Product
Name market Product Description Sales Volume Product Price
Derived from
the dried The monthly production of dry cannabis is
Biomas
Five cannabis 2.600 kilos, which would result in
s/Dried Between 800 to
years in flower, 2.600.000 grams, which multiplying them
Avicanna Cannabi 1000 Colombian
the Organic and to the current gram value of 900
s Pesos
market sustainable Colombian pesos gives us the result that
Flower
cultivation they have an estimated monthly sale of
practices. 2'340.000.000 Colombian pesos.
Khiron’s
products are
manufactured The monthly production of dry cannabis is
in GMP-GEP 667 kilos, which would result in 667.000
Four Dried Between 900 to
compliant grams, which multiplying them to the
Khiron Life years in Cannabi
facilities in current gram value of 900 Colombian 1200 Colombian
Sciences the s
Colombia. pesos gives us the result that they have an Pesos
market Flower
Our products estimated monthly sale of 600.300.000
are Colombian pesos.
standardized
and stabilized.
 Sustainable, The monthly production of dry cannabis is
high- 2.400 kilos, which would result in
Five Dried
efficiency and 2.400.000 grams, which multiplying them
Clever years in Cannabi
large-scale to to the current gram value of 900
leaves the s
meet rapidly Colombian pesos gives us the result that
market Flower
growing they have an estimated monthly sale of Between 700 to
global 2'160.000.000 Colombian pesos. 1000 Colombian
demand. Pesos

Considering the data in table number 1, we can affirm that the market for the sale of dried
cannabis flower is a market of great movement and a lot of competition, but at the same time it is limited
by national and international laws.

3. Demand Forecasting.

In order to forecast a better demand for the company THC company S.A.S, it was
necessary to implement all the methods of forecasting demand and sales in order to achieve
monthly profitability in the Colombian market. For this reason, we present the most accurate
forecasting method with the lowest error rate.

Table 2

Table 3
 Graphic 1

Table 4

Considering tables 2, 3 and graph 1, we can evidence that the best method to forecast the
company's sales THC Company S.A.S is the average, but after carrying out all the mathematical processes
we find that the MAD was 57.750.000, estimating a monthly sale of 1.225.000.000 million Colombian
pesos for period 13 with a sale value of the product of 900 pesos.

The result obtained is in accordance with the method because the real data in graph 1 are
stationary, have a minimal upward trend and are not cyclical, because the market value of the product
change every day, affecting the sales of the company and changing every period the data of sales.

Also, for the elaboration of the forecasting methods, we considered fixed considerations so that all
the forecasting methods had the same parameters, these considerations were that the production of
grams per cannabis plant was fixed (200gr / plant), the Market value for the sale of grams of products
was variable, ranging between 800-1000 Colombian pesos.
 4. Suppliers Selection.
To find the best suppliers, we decided to make a matrix in which we can determine who is the
best supplier for the company. In this matrix we define the standards from 1 to 5 and additionally we
present 4 suppliers for each product necessary to produce our product.
Also, we decided to make a price quotation of the products used in the production of the dried
cannabis flower, in order to give a more accurate estimate of the approximate expenses of the plantation
each month.

Table 5

Table 6

Table 7

Table 8
 Additionally, we can select one supplier for each product, therefore we calculate the satisfaction
value for each company, considering the standards of quality, price, delivery time, communication with
the supplier and finally the product warranty.

Table 9

Considering Table 9, it is possible to see that the selected providers were highlighted, because
they stood out in all the standards and the sum of scores resulted in their selection. By making this
selection we are guaranteeing that our product has the better quality and additionally the company
maintains its profit above costs.
 5. Conclusion.
After analyzing the conditions in which we can apply to the creation of the new company, we can
see that by having a sales forecast of 1.225.000.000 million Colombian pesos and a monthly cost of
158.372.000 million pesos in production issues as we see in the table 10. We find that we have a monthly
profit of 1.066.627.000, it could be said that the company is profitable on a monthly basis. Additionally,
considering the forecasts presented, we show that the average is the best option in order to forecast this
company.
Table 10

6. Video.
https://youtu.be/dnrm6qQm_cM

References:

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https://asocolcanna.org

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(2020). Homecenter. https://www.homecenter.com.co/homecenter-co/

- Acosta, X. (n.d.). Producción y rendimientos de un cultivo de cannabis. DANA Agronomics –

Ingeniería Agronómica. Retrieved May 28, 2021, from

https://www.danaagronomics.com/produccion-y-rendimientos-de-un-cultivo-de-cannabis/

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https://www.pharmacielo.com

-CLEVER LEAVES | Un destacado operador multinacional de cannabis. (2021, May 21). Clever

Leaves. https://cleverleaves.com/es/inicio/