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Angus-Cartwright

Case 4

Sarah Hu
Detailed
Analysis
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Exhibit 1: be calculated by making the assumptions that real estate


In Exhibit 1, we begin by summarizing the key parameters taxes are at 12% for the two properties in MD and 10% for
of each investment property based on the numbers and as- the properties in VA. After subtracting these expenses, we
sumptions given in the case. We take note of the number can arrive at the NOI. We then subtract the mortgage pay-
of units/sq ft of rental space, purchase price, sales price, ments and lease payments for Ivy Terrace to arrive at the
holding period, depreciable base, depreciable life, NOI, in- before tax cash flow.
crease in NOI per year, leasehold payments, and equity
investments. We also take note of the mortgage based on Exhibit 3
how much debt was used to finance the project, interest Combining the information from exhibit 1 and 2, we can
rate, loan term, and amortization period. standardize and calculate certain parameters per square
foot or per square unit. For instance, we take the real estate
Exhibit 2: taxes calculated in exhibit 2 and divide it by the number of
In Exhibit 2, we calculate the before tax cash flow by taking square feet office buildings have and number of units the
the gross rent and subtracting vacancy under the assump- multifamily properties have.
tion that it is equivalent to 95% for Allison Green and Stony
Walk and 93% for The Fowler Building and Ivy Terrace. We Exhibit 4
calculate the amount of potential gross rent lost to vacancy In exhibit 4, we calculate metrics that measure risk includ-
by multiplying these rates by the gross rent. After arriving ing added margin, break-even ratio. LTVR, and DCR. To
at the net rent, we subtract real estate taxes, other operat- calculate the LTVR, we take the amount borrowed to fi-
ing expenses and capital reserves. These expenses can nance the project over the purchase price. The DCR was
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calculated by taking the yearly NOI over the yearly finance values, we use the formula (FV/(1+IRR)^period). We then cline by 18.33% while the value of Ivy Terrace can decline computed DCR. The higher the value of this DCR, the saf-
payments. The break-even ratio can be calculated by taking sum these discounted values and divide it by the amount of by 36.36% before the lender is exposed to risk. er the investment is since it means that the NOI can fall a
the sum of the real estate taxes, other operating expenses, equity invested in the project to get the percentages of the greater percentage before debt service isn’t covered. The
capital reserves and financial payments and dividing it by partitioned IRRs. Break-even ratio DCR of the properties under consideration from highest
the gross rent. Another risk factor is the break-even ratio. Profit only starts to lowest are Ivy Terrace at 2.18, Allison Green at 1.81,
Exhibit 9 once the occupancy rate becomes greater than this ratio. The Fowler Building at 1.33, and Stony Walk at 1.25. This
Exhibit 5 In Exhibit 9, we simply take the percentages of the parti- In other words, if we have a lower break-even ratio, there is means that from the perspective of the DCR, Stony Walk
In exhibit 5, we create a discounted cash flow for each prop- tioned IRRS that we calculated in the preceding exhibit and lower risk in the project as occupancy can be lower in order poses the highest investment risk since it means the NOI
erty. We begin by calculating an amortization schedule by summarize them in the table. to breakeven and start earning profit. In order from highest cannot fall as much as Ivy Terrace, for instance, before in-
subtracting the amount of principal paid from the beginning to lowest break-even ratio, Stony Walk is at 82.89%, The solvency occurs.
balance to get to each period’s ending balance. Then, we Exhibit 10 Fowler Building is at 77.26%, Ivy Terrace is at 66.33%, and
calculated the BTCF, which was a similar process to the In exhibit 10, we calculate the net cash from sale by sum- Allison Green is at 66.2%. Therefore, from the perspective Partitioning of IRR:
one we did in Exhibit 2. We then calculate the amount of ming the amount of equity invested into the project with the of this risk metric, Allison Green and Ivy Terrace have the
taxable income to determine how much tax needs to be gain on sale (which is the difference between the expected lowest risk while Stony Walk has the highest investment The partitioning of IRR is also an important consideration of
paid. To do this, we take the NOI and subtract interest and sales price and the purchase price) and the recapture of risk. risk. In Exhibit 9, we can reference the summary of benefits
depreciation, and add reserves, to determine the taxable mortgage amortization. The recapture of mortgage amor- based on IRR for BTCF, Tax Benefits, and Future Value.
income. Finally, we take the amount of tax that needs to be tization was calculated by taking the BTCF from sale and Added margin BTCF (cash from operations) based on IRR is more certain
paid and subtract it from the BTCF to arrive at the ATCF. We subtracting both the return of initial cash and the increase in A related risk factor to the break-even ratio is the added since it is based on lease contracts. In contrast to this, the
also determine the NPV at 10% and the IRR, which will later sales price. We then subtract the 25% tax depreciation and margin. This may also be known as the profit margin and portion of the return that is based on tax shelter and prop-
be used to calculate some of the measurements of return. 20% capital gains tax from this sum to get to the final value can be calculated by subtracting the break-even ratio and erty price appreciation are more risky and unpredictable.
To calculate the NPV at 10%, we used the NPV function to of net cash from sale. the vacancy rate from 100%. If the added margin is high- Therefore, we should take this into consideration when con-
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discount the sum of the ATCF minus the amount of equi- er, this means that the investment is less risky, but it also sidering the most important and least important percent of
ty invested. To calculate the IRR, we use the IRR function Risk factors means that the break-even ratio and vacancy rate is lower. total benefits with tax shelter and property price apprecia-
from Excel on the total ATCF. In the Angus Cartwright case, there are a number of risk Therefore, the added margin is an alternative way to look tion being less important than BTCF simply due to the fact
factors that are worth considering before choosing an in- at the breakeven ratio. The higher the break-even ratio, the that they are more risky. For BTCF returns based on IRR
Exhibit 6 vestment property. Those factors include the LTVR, break- lower the added margin will be. The ordering from highest to in order of highest to lowest are Allison Green at 70.61%,
In exhibit 6, we calculate metrics of return such as cap rate even ratio (added margin), and DCR. The calculations and lowest added margin is the opposite of the preceding ques- Ivy Terrace at 64.66%, Stony Walk at 61.23%, and Fowler
(going in and going out), cash on cash return, increase in values that are being referenced come from the Break-Even tion: Allison Green, Ivy Terrace, The Fowler Building, and Building at 53.9%. This means that Allison Green has the
capital value, pre-tax investment multiple, IRR, and NPV at Analysis (Exhibit 4). Stony Walk. This means that Allison Green has the highest highest returns on the least risky partition (BTCF) while the
10%. profit margins while Stony Walk has the lowest under the Fowler Building has the lowest. For returns on tax bene-
The first risk factor is the Loan to Value Ratio. Since the given occupancy rates and calculated break-even ratios. fits from highest to lowest, the ordering of the properties
Exhibit 7 LTVR is calculated by taking the loan amount over the price is Stony Walk, The Fowler Building, Allison Green, and Ivy
In exhibit 7, we rank the measures of return in order from paid for the property, the higher the LTVR, the more the DCR Terrace. For returns on FV from highest to lowest, the or-
1-4 based on the calculations done in the preceding exhibit. project was financed by debt. Thus, the investment is more The last factor of risk that we will discuss is the debt cover- dering of the properties is The Fowler Building, Stony Walk,
risky as the LTVR increases since the probability of default age ratio, which measures the extent to which a property’s Allison Green, and Ivy Terrace. This means that Stony Walk
Exhibit 8 is higher as the lender is losing out on more money if the underwritten NOI can cover debt service. The first kind of and The Fowler Building have the highest returns on IRR
In exhibit 8, we partition the IRR for each property into 3: borrower is unable to make their payments. In order from DCR is the one that the lender requires. If the lender de- with respect to the more risky partitions (tax benefits and
cash flow before tax, income tax, and future values. We highest to lowest LTVR, Stony Walk is 81.67%, The Fowler mands a higher DCR, this means the investment is riskier future value).
did this by calculating both the actual and the discounted Building is 76.36%, Allison Green is 70%, and Ivy Terrace is since the lender believes that for every dollar in debt in-
(to standardize and be able to compare the percentages 63.64%. Therefore, from the calculated LTVRs, Stony Walk curred, the property needs to contribute more in order to Return factors: Complementing the risk factors are the re-
since everything is now in the present period). We have the has the highest risk and Ivy Terrace has the lowest invest- support the mortgage payment. Most commercial lenders turn factors, of which there are six that I will discuss. Most of
actual values from exhibit 5, but in order to discount these ment risk. This is because the value of Stony Walk can de- require a minimum DCR of 1.2. However, there is also a the numbers referenced can be found in exhibit 6.
best investment choice. of the building moratorium. This means that supply is con- that demand for residential/multifamily properties would be
The first return factor that we analyzed is the purchase strained in the short term within these areas of the country. higher than office buildings, making Allison Green a more
cap rate or the going in cap rate. This rate represents the Another return factor that we can analyze is the percentage Therefore, if demand increases, we can create a monopoly attractive choice than Stony Walk. In Arlington County, VA,
weighted average of the return to debt and equity claim- increase in capital value. This was calculated by taking the for a moment in time by raising apartment rents and prices. the area is very urban and the backbone of the economy is
holders and measures how successful the property is at difference between the sales price and purchase price over Additionally, for this property in particular, another qualita- the federal government’s presence. Therefore, demand for
using its invested capital (debt and equity) to generate a the purchase price. It represents the percentage of growth a tive factor on risk and return is the fact that the building office properties would probably be higher than residential,
cash flow profit before considering the effects of financing property experienced in value over the 10 years. However, is still under construction. Inherently, there is greater risk making The Fowler Building a more attractive choice than
and taxes. To calculate this ratio, we divided NOI by the pur- this factor is partially unreliable due to fluctuations and bar- in a multifamily/apartment building that is still under con- Ivy Terrace.
chase price. Ivy Terrace had the highest cap rate at 8.18%, gaining in regards to property sales. Regardless, Ivy Ter- struction compared to those of other property types like
then Allison Green at 7.25%, then Stony Walk at 7%, and race experienced the greatest increase in capital value by office buildings, for instance. Usually, preleasing helps to Another qualitative factor that can be taken into consider-
finally the Fowler Building at 6.78%. percentage (27.27%), then the Fowler Building, then Alison mitigate some of the risk from the investor’s perspective ation is how recession proof a tenant/type of commercial
Green, and finally Stony Walk at 13.33%. as it guarantees that at least a certain percentage of the real estate may be. During a recession, individuals and
The second return factor that we analyze is the sales cap property will be rented upon completion of the construction businesses are both likely to be impacted in a negative
rate or the going out cap rate. This percentage is used to The next return factor that is analyzed is the pre-tax invest- ending. It also serves as evidence for demand of that prop- manner. Individuals are at a higher risk of losing their jobs
determine the gross value of an investment property at ment multiple. This metric is calculated by dividing the cu- erty in that specific area. However, apartment buildings and and therefore, their spending power goes down. They are
sale. To calculate this ratio, we divided the NOI by the ex- mulative, annual distributions plus the residual value by the multi-family properties are unable to be pre-leased since no longer interested in buying homes during recessions and
pected sales price. Ivy Terrace had the highest sales cap investors’ paid in capital. Essentially, it represents all the tenants would not be interested in signing a lease for a unit oftentimes, they are unable to pay their mortgages or rent.
rate at 8.39%, then Stony Walk at 8.06% then Allison Green pre-tax cash that an investor will receive over the life of the that will not be available in the near future. Therefore, with The housing market follows the economy very closely, and
at 7.88%, and finally The Fowler Building at 7.05%. investment against their equity investment. For our proper- apartment units like Ivy Terrace, the developers are always therefore, home values and the residential real estate mar-
ties, Stony Walk had the highest multiple at 4.25, then the building “on spec”, which presents greater risk. Lastly, for ket will drop during recessions.
Ideally, we would buy at a higher going in cap rate and sell at Fowler Building, then Allison Green, and lastly, Ivy Terrace Ivy Terrace, we must consider the pros and cons of the land Businesses, likewise, experience negative effects from the
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a lower going out cap rate because a lower cap rate means at 3.41. From this return perspective, Stony Walk and the lease. While the land lease is able to provide a tax deduc- recession. For instance, during COVID there was a steep
that the value of the property at the time of sale is higher. Fowler Building are stronger choices compared to Allison tion, the flip side of the coin is that the leasehold agreement drop off in demand for office properties in particular. Many
At the time of purchase, we want a higher going-in cap rate Green and Ivy Terrace since the investor can expect to re- is also a fixed financing cost for the investor. businesses failed to make their rental payments and office
because then that means the property was valued lower ceive a higher multiple of their equity in pre-tax cash. properties experienced a large sell-off as well as a steep
and so the appreciation in property value has increased A qualitative factor that should be taken into consideration decline in prices.
during the investment period. According to the assumptions Lastly, we can analyze and compare the NPVs calculated and that can be applied to all properties in consideration is
made, none of these properties would be bought at a higher at a 10% discount rate. This is where we took the future the property type. Generally speaking, office buildings have Lastly, we will discuss the number of tenants as a factor
going-in cap rate compared to a going-out cap rate. In fact, cash flows of all 10 years for each building and discounted a longer lease term than multifamily. This is because mul- of risk and return. Within the multifamily units, there is a
most of the going in and going out cap rates are about the them backwards to the present time to determine the value tifamily leases will typically last only one year while office greater effect from vacancy if a tenant leaves for Ivy Ter-
same. Overall though, because cap rates serve as a rate of of the project as of now. The Fowler Building had the high- leases are usually for 3 to 5 years. Therefore, residential race simply because the property has fewer units than Al-
return, we can conclude that Ivy Terrace is a better invest- est NPV at $2321.95, then Allison Green at $1803.60, then properties like Allison Green and Ivy Terrace will have high- lison Green. Within the office properties, there is a greater
ment compared to The Fowler Building. Ivy Terrace and Stony Walk at about $1077 each. From an er turnover rates and be slightly more risky than the office effect from vacancy if a tenant leaves for Stony Walk than
NPV perspective, The Fowler Building is the best choice properties over the course of the 10 year investment period. The Fowler Building because the property has less rentable
The third return factor that we analyze is the Cash-on-Cash, because according to the projected cash flows, this building square feet, which means that percentage wise, tenants are
which is also known as the return on equity. This factor is is worth the most in present time. Next, we will discuss the area in which the property is lo- taking up more space within their lease in Stony Walk than
calculated by taking the BTCF and dividing it by equity. This cated and the projected supply/demand for the type of in The Fowler.
ratio represents the profitability of a property to an equity There are a number of qualitative factors on risk and return property within Montgomery County, MD and Arlington
holder in one period. For our properties, Alison Green had that impact these properties. County, VA. In Montgomery County, the backbone of the Profiling the investors
the highest COC return at 10.8%, then Ivy Terrace, then economy are biotech firms. The county as a whole is one For John, more of the partitioning of the IRR should come
Stony Walk, and finally The Fowler Building at 7.14%. This Qualitative Factors of the wealthiest in the country and many of the school dis- from operations since he is retired. In contrast, Judy could
means that from a COC perspective, Allison Green is the For Ivy Terrace, we should consider the qualitative factor tricts are therefore, very highly rated. As a result, I believe have a greater percent of return coming from the future val-
ue component. Based on our calculations from Exhibit 9, scenario, CF after debt service amounts to $11,762,149. In
I would recommend Alison Green for John and either the the base case scenario, CF after debt service amounts go
Fowler Building or Stony Walk for Judy. This is because out to $7,421,465.
of all the properties, Alison Green has the highest BTCF
return on equity (70.61%) while Stony Walk and the Fowl- For Allison Green, in the worst case scenario, CF after debt
er Building have the highest FV return on equity (around service amounts to $7,213,185. Under the best case sce-
65.68% and 68.78%, respectively). nario, CF after debt service amounts to $10,571,827. In the
base case scenario, CF after debt service amounts go to
Additionally, for John, it is important that the projects earn $8,803,331.
him at least a 2.14% cash-on-cash return because he is
expected to earn $750,000 on stock dividends based on For Stony Walk, in the worst case scenario, CF after debt
his $35M equity in his business. Because he is planning on service amounts to $1,698,445. In the best scenario, CF af-
using a portion of his $35M equity to invest in real estate, ter debt service amounts go to $5,758,330. In the base case
he can expect to earn a 2.14% return or better on this real scenario, CF after debt service amounts to $3,685,772.
estate investment, especially since there is also higher risk
associated with investing in this asset class. In our calcula- As we can see, in all of the properties and across all the
tions in Exhibit 6, we see that all the properties earn at least scenarios, the CF after debt service is highest under the
a 2.14% cash-on-cash return. Alison Green earns a 10.8% best case scenario and lowest under the worst case sce-
cash-on-cash return, Stony Walk earns 7.71%, Ivy Terrace nario. If we calculate the IRRs for
earns 9.67%, and The Fowler Building earns 7.14%.

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Sensitivity Analysis
In order to test the solvency of these properties under differ-
ent scenarios, we can change the inputs of the parameters
such as the growth rate and the vacancy.

In ARGUS, I have done a sensitivity analysis of the best


case, where inflation/growth is at 5% per year and vacancy
rate is at 1%. I have also constructed a worst case scenario
where growth is at 1% and vacancy rate is at 10%. We com-
pare the base case scenarios to the worst case scenario
and the best case scenario to get a better idea of how the
return and risk metrics change accordingly.

For Ivy Terrace, in the worst case scenario, CF after debt


service amounts to $5,360,727. Under the best case sce-
nario, CF after debt service amounts to $10,629,594. In the
base case scenario, CF after debt service amounts go to
$8,471,072.

For The Fowler Building, in the worst case scenario, CF after


debt service amounts to $4,594,396. Under the best case
BTCF IRR partitions, these are more attractive investments er the fact that the building is still under construction. There
for John. is greater risk for Ivy Terrace because the developers are
For Judy, since she is not retired, the pre-tax investment building on-spec as they are unable to pre-lease to tenants
multiple and increase in capital value would be more rel- years in advance. Lastly, for Ivy Terrace, we must consider
evant for her. Assuming this is her goal, it would be most the pros and cons of the land lease. While the land lease is

Executive
beneficial to consider the IRR partitioning of income tax and able to provide a tax deduction, the flip side of the coin is
futures. In regards to future value, Stony Walk and Fowler that the leasehold agreement is also a fixed financing cost
Building have the highest future value IRR partitions. Re- for the investor. This would be an attractive feature for Judy
garding income tax IRR partitions, Ivy Terrace and Allison in particular due to the fact that it satisfies her idea of tax
Green seem to be the most attractive as they have the low- sheltering.
est returns which means they have the lowest taxable in-

Summary
come with respect to the equity invested. For the pre-tax Next, we discuss qualitative factors that can be applied to
investment multiple and the increase in capital value, Ivy all properties in consideration, which is the property type.
Terrace is the best option. Generally speaking, office buildings have a longer lease
Overall return wise, Ivy Terrace does not have the highest term than multifamily. This is because multifamily leases
IRR. However, the properties’ IRRs are all very close in val- will typically last only one year while office leases are usu-
ue to each other and thus, the ranking of Ivy Terrace in re- ally for 3 to 5 years. Therefore, residential properties like Al-
gards to this return factor is not as important. lison Green and Ivy Terrace will have higher turnover rates
and be slightly more risky than the office properties over the
course of the 10 year investment period.
Qualitative risk and return factors:
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The older investor (John) is better suited to cash flows from Next, we will discuss the area in which the property is lo-
The investment problem: Angus Cartwright IV is a financial For John, the quantitative risk factors that would be most operations because he does not have as much time as Judy cated and the projected supply/demand for the type of
advisor who is tasked with helping John and Judy DeRight relevant include added margin and the break-even occu- to wait for the appreciation in property value. Additionally, property within Montgomery County, MD and Arlington
make an investment decision regarding potential real estate pancy rate because he is looking to invest in a property that he is retired so the cash flow from operations would be more County, VA. In Montgomery County, the backbone of the
properties. There are 4 properties that Angus Cartwright is can generate him profit/CF during the investment period. beneficial as it can be used for his day-to-day expenses. economy are biotech firms. The county as a whole is one
considering recommending, with those being Alison Green, Thus, it is important that the occupancy rates, added mar- There are a number of other qualitative risks that should be of the wealthiest in the country and many of the school dis-
900 Stony Walk, Ivy Terrace, and The Fowler Building. He gins, and break-even occupancy rates are most relevant. considered as well including the building moratorium, build- tricts are therefore, very highly rated. As a result, I believe
is tasked with completing detailed financial analyses in or- For John, Ivy Terrace and Allison Green seem to initially ing construction, land leases, property types, location, and that demand for residential/multifamily properties would be
der to support his recommendation on which property John be good choices in regards to mitigating risk due to the recession proof investments. higher than office buildings, making Allison Green a more
should invest in and which property Judy should invest in. fact that they have the highest added margins and lowest attractive choice than Stony Walk. In Arlington County, VA,
break-even occupancy rates. For Judy, the quantitative risk For Ivy Terrace, we should consider the qualitative factor the area is very urban and the backbone of the economy is
The investment alternatives: The four properties that are factors that are most relevant should be the LTVR, DCR, of the building moratorium, building construction, and land the federal government’s presence. Therefore, demand for
examined include Alison Green, which is a 100 unit multi- added margin, and break-even occupancy rate. Ivy Terrace leases. Moratoriums occur when supply is constrained in office properties would probably be higher than residential,
family apartment complex located in Montgomery County, has the highest DCR and the lowest LTVR, indicating that the short term within these areas of the country. There- making The Fowler Building a more attractive choice than
MD. 900 Stony Walk is an office building in the same area the property seems to have the lowest risk out of the 4 we fore, if demand increases, we can create a monopoly for Ivy Terrace.
with 5 stories and 67,000 square feet of rentable space. Ivy are considering. a moment in time by raising apartment rents and prices.
Terrace is a 75 unit apartment complex in Arlington County, This means that for Ivy Terrace, we can expect to achieve Another qualitative factor that can be taken into consider-
VA and The Fowler Building is a 110,000 square foot office For John, the quantitative return factors that are particular- the projected occupancy or even better. Additionally, this ation is how recession proof a tenant/type of commercial
building. ly relevant for him are the cash-on-cash returns and cash means that we can potentially also expect higher gross real estate may be. During a recession, individuals and
flow before tax IRR partitions. Since Allison Green and Ivy rents, depending on how much of the investor chooses to businesses are both likely to be impacted in a negative
Quantitative risk and return factors: Terrace have the highest cash-on-cash returns as well as capitalize on the monopoly. Additionally, we need to consid- manner. Individuals are at a higher risk of losing their jobs
and therefore, their spending power goes down. They are highest COC return as well as the highest BTCF IRR par-
no longer interested in buying homes during recessions and tition.
oftentimes, they are unable to pay their mortgages or rent.
The housing market follows the economy very closely, and For Judy, Ivy Terrace had the tax sheltering and apprecia-
therefore, home values and the residential real estate mar- tion in value that would be most relevant to her needs. The
ket will drop during recessions. property had the highest value appreciation and highest
Businesses, likewise, experience negative effects from the pre-tax investment multiple. Additionally, the IRR partition-
recession. For instance, during COVID there was a steep ing of the futures and income tax are the best out of the four
drop off in demand for office properties in particular. Many properties.
businesses failed to make their rental payments and office
properties experienced a large sell-off as well as a steep Risk-wise, Ivy Terrace is still under construction. However,
decline in prices. we must also factor in the fact that there is a moratorium in
this area of the country which will decrease the risk of be-
Lastly, the number of tenants is a factor of risk. Within the ing unable to pre-lease and actually enable the investors to
multifamily apartments, Ivy Terrace is riskier simply be- create a monopoly for a moment in time. The property also
cause the property has fewer units than Allison Green. provides a tax shelter for the leasehold portion of the land.
Within the office buildings, Stony Walk is riskier than The
Fowler Building. This is because the properties have less
rentable square feet and less units, which means that per-
centage wise, tenants are taking up more space within their
lease. Therefore, if a tenant were to leave, proportionally,
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the investor is losing more of their gross rent.

Investor profiles: John and Judy DeRight are cousins of An-


gus Cartwright who both earn enough and have enough in
net worth to consider purchasing real estate property. The
three key reasons behind this decision are to first, diversify
their portfolios, second, to protect themselves from infla-
tion, and lastly, to reap some of the associated tax benefits.
However, key differences in John and Judy’s backgrounds
are that John is currently retired while Judy is still working.
John is currently receiving approximately $1 million per year
from a combination of dividends, retirement, and other in-
come. Judy’s company, on the other hand, has consistently
been earning around $2.1 million after taxes per year.

Final recommendation: My final recommendation would be


to have both investors choose Ivy Terrace. Although both
investors have different needs and thus, different risk and
return measurements were considered, Ivy Terrace seems
to fit both of these investors’ needs. For John, since he is
looking to mainly benefit from the CF, Ivy Terrace had the

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