Birdman

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15th Global Congress on Manufacturing and Management (GCMM 2021) IOP Publishing
Journal of Physics: Conference Series 2198 (2022) 012002 doi:10.1088/1742-6596/2198/1/012002
The review of methods for a real-time monitoring and

forecasting bird strike risk level
B Szafrański1, M Zieja2 and J Wójcik1*

1
Cybernetics Faculty, Military University of Technology, Gen. Sylwestra Kaliskiego 2 Street,
00-950 Warsaw, Poland
2
Air Force Institute of Technology, Księcia Bolesława 6 Street, 01-494 Warsaw, Poland
Abstract. A high level of flight safety is a priority for all aviation organizations in the world.
The negative impact of the natural environment on air operations is one of the most common
factors causing the situations exerting a negative influence on flight safety (in short-aviation
occurrence) in the Polish Army. The most common reason of the aviation occurrence connected
with the environment area is the bird strike. The lack of a method for real-time monitoring and
forecasting bird strike risk level is a significant gap in the proactive approach to flight safety
within the Polish Air Force. The article presents a review of the methods for monitoring and
forecasting the intensity of bird movements, which were used to build advisory systems used by
air forces of the United States, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and Israel. The article
consists of summary of most important properties of the methods and analysis in terms of their
applicability in the Polish conditions. Particular attention was paid to the complicated network
of routes of bird species occurring on Polish territory. Finally, after proving the incomplete
usefulness of the above-mentioned methods in Polish conditions, the need to develop a more
adequate method was justified.
Keywords. safety, aviation, risk, bird strike, radar
1. Introduction
Modern theories of flight safety management, including those used in the Flight Safety Manual [1]
“5 Factor Model” and the Reason’s “Swiss Cheese” model [2,3], emphasize a comprehensive analysis
of individual areas of the aviation system as well as the fastest possible reaction to any anomalies in
their operation. Only with this approach is it possible to react quickly to a detected aviation threat.
The mentioned above theories was included in algorithm used in Polish Air Force (PAF) for
classification air events† causes. “5 Factor Model” is used for determine the area of aviation system of
the main cause of an air event [4]. The distribution of causes of air events, divided into areas defined by
“5-Factor Model” shows that excluding the area of the machine, one of the most frequent causes was
the negative impact of the environment. The distribution of events for jet aircraft is shown in figure 1.
It is worth noting that 80% of all aviation events, which were caused by negative environmental impact,
were caused by collisions with birds, all the more worrying is the fact that the trend of intensity of such
events is not decreasing, as shown in figure 2.
Collision with birds is a significant problem in both civil and military aviation, although there are
fundamental differences in the nature of the air operations performed. Military flights usually take place
*
jaroslaw.wojcik@itwl.pl
†
Situation affecting flight safety, e.g.: engine failure, unmaintained spatial separation, pilot lost consciousness.
Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distribution
of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.
Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd 1
at much lower altitudes, which is associated with a constant threat of bird strike. Another important
factor is higher flight speed. The energy of the collision of an aircraft with the bird is proportional to its
mass and to the square of its speed in relation to the aircraft, so even a small individual can do serious
damage.
Based on historical data on aerial events resulting from military aircraft bird strike between 1991 and
2000 in the air forces of France, Great Britain, Germany and the Netherlands, it was found that the rate
of these events per 10000 flight hours is 45% less when a given country has an operational bird migration
warning system. The estimated cost resulting from the damage for countries with the operational
warning system, based on data from 1991-2000, was between $1-4 million. Countries that did not have
such a system suffered financial losses of 10-11 million dollars [5].
Below are selected methods used to build a system for monitoring and prediction of the level of risk
of bird strike with military aircraft. The selection was based on the intensity of bird strike events and the
potential of the air force of the country where the method was applied. The description of each method
includes the main assumptions, algorithms and models used, as well as a summary allowing for
comparison of individual solutions, which includes the following points:
1. Main features of follow-up monitoring the level of risk of bird strike.
2. Main features of prediction of the level of risk of bird strike.
3. The assumptions made are based on local conditions.
4. Data required to develop the models used in the method.
5. Input data
6. How to estimate the level of risk.
7. Assumptions about the infrastructure used.
8. Assumptions on changes in time of migration routes or flight paths of birds during prediction of
risk level.
9. The results of the method’s validation.
Then each of the methods was analyzed in terms of the possibility of using it, taking into account
Polish conditions. The article summarises the conclusions which show the main shortcomings of each
method and justify the need for a more appropriate solution.
2. Selected methods for estimating and predicting the level of risk of bird strike
2.1. The method used in AHAS.

A significant level of risk in low altitude flight operations was already highlighted by the USAF‡
3.16% 30.00
12.11% 0.53%
44.74% 20.00
35.26% 10.00
0.00
2.11% 2.11% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
M EM EI EN ET OT TM Jet Helicopter Turboprop
Figure 1. The percentage of air events for jet Figure 2. An indicator indicating the intensity of
spikes due to the cause of occurrence without events resulting from collisions with birds in
the machine area in 2016-2018. Separated relation to the air flights, with a division into type
slice is for the environment. of aircraft in 2012-2018.
‡
United States Air Force (USAF) - one of the types of United States Armed Forces.
2
in the 1970s. Due to the involvement of the BASH team§, a spatiotemporal model of bird occurrence in
the territory of the United States was developed, which was used in the implementation of the United
States Bird Avoidance Model (US BAM) [6,7]. Then, in the late 1990s, a team of Air Combat Command
Bird Hazard Working Group and Geo-Marine Inc. developed a new method based on US BAM, weather
data, and weather radar measurements. The developed method was used in the implementation of a new
GIS type system called Avian Hazard Advisory System (AHAS). Positive system tests were carried out
during the autumn migration in 1998 for selected locations on the east coast. Subsequently, the
monitored area was gradually extended to the continental part of the United States, until 2005 when the
territory of Alaska was added [8,9]. The system is available on the Internet as a web application**.
The method used in the above system allows to determine the level of risk on a 3-degree scale for
any defined area with a time resolution of up to 1 hour. Depending on the selected moment of time, the
method uses the highest value of the risk level on the basis of at most 2 models listed below in the
following order [10,11]:
1. The model uses the NEXRAD†† network, which is available for the current hour. The level of
risk is determined after receiving new radar data. The lack of current radar data does not allow
the use of the above model.
2. The soaring model and migration model are available in the next 24 hours. The risk level is
determined every 12 hours. They are based on the current weather forecast. The lack of
appropriate parameters of the forecast weather does not allow the use of the above model.
3. US BAM, which is available for a moment later than 24 hours and for the past moment. The
model determines the level of risk in any two-week period of the year and is divided into four
times of day: dawn, day, dusk and night.
The risk levels reflect the average weight of birds per square kilometre present in the selected area
on a logarithmic scale. This value is interpreted as the probability of a plane crash‡‡[12].
The model uses the NEXRAD network, which is based on the neural network, filters out radio-echo
of weather or other non-bird air-borne objects. Neural network is used as classifier for recognizing
objects on radar image. It uses the difference in levels and spatial distribution of the measured
reflectivity. For example, a storm can reflect radio waves at an altitude of 6 to 10 kilometres and cover
many square kilometres of the earth's surface. Bird migrations usually do not have a significant vertical
distribution. Most of them do not exceed 4 km in flight [7,9,13]. Radar image with an applied mask is
used to determine the level of risk in the selected area. The risk level assessment is based on the product
of radar reflectivity which is proportional to the weight of birds, and the percentage of selected area
polygon filled with biological activity. The product represents the probability and effects of collision.
The exact mapping of mentioned product to the risk level can be found in the AHAS presentation§§.
The soaring model and the migration model allow to forecast the activity of birds in the airspace
based on predicted weather conditions and using the US BAM model. The prediction concerns 12 bird
species considered most dangerous in case of collision with aircraft. The soaring model estimates the
possibility and depth of thermals that are used by some bird species. Thanks to the above calculations
the maximum height of bird activity is determined [9,13]. The migration model based on the neural
network allows to estimate whether the migration of birds is possible for given weather conditions
[9,10,14]. In case of favourable weather conditions, the level of risk is determined using US BAM.
§
Bird/wildlife Aircraft Strike Hazard (BASH) - a team within the USAF to reduce environmental hazards affecting
air operations in order to maintain the combat capability of these forces.
**
http://usahas.com
††
Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) - a network of 160 NATO standard E/F Doppler weather radars, which are
subordinate to the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) and are used to monitor weather conditions in the United
States.
‡‡
An aviation incident which has led to the loss of an aircraft or the death of a flight crew member.
§§
https://www.usahas.com/Downloads/AHAS Training Briefing Mar 2017.pptx
3
The US BAM is a model showing the spatiotemporal distribution of bird populations in the United
States. Based on this, a risk area of 1 square kilometre resolution is calculated for two-week periods per
year including the time of day. When calculating the risk area, the model takes into account over 60
different species causing significant hazard in case of a collision [6]. The construction of the model was
based on a number of sources including federal, state and private agencies collecting data on the number
and time distribution of birds. After the determination of the number of individuals, areas without
adequate data were completed using a standard inverse distance-weighted interpolation protocol using
the 12 nearest neighboring points and a squared decay function. After the creation of a standardized risk
area for each two-week period, based on field observation and expert knowledge, patterns of behaviour
of individual species during the day were added [15]. The construction of the model was modified for
the state of Alaska because of lack of ornithological data from inaccessible or uninhabited areas and
further improvements in the risk level assessment. The model was extended with behavioral aspects to
depict percentages of birds expected in the air during the day. Further analyses were conducted by
evaluating the presence of birds from numerous sample sites and correlating these data to the terrain and
habitat present at those sites. Masking algorithms were applied to limit or eliminate predicted
distribution and abundance of birds from environments in which suitable habitat was absent. The
calculation of birds population changes during migration periods was modified for Alaska because of
huge and quite diverse area. Geographical regions with specific environmental characteristics have been
defined and each region is treated separately during migration periods, including adjustments to daily
bird activity patterns [8].
The most important properties of the method described above include:
1. The method allows to estimate the level of risk of bird strike for any selected area on 2D plane
with a delay of up to 10 minutes due to the frequency of acquiring new data from NEXRAD
network weather radars.
2. The method allows to predict the level of risk of bird strike for any selected moment and any
selected area on 2D plane with 1 km2 resolution. The accuracy of the prediction depends on the
prediction horizon.
3. The method determines the risk for a selected group of species occurring in US territory.
4. The construction of the method was based on historical data from weather radars and statistical
data on the number of birds from many organizations and volunteers. Expert knowledge of
daytime bird behaviour and migration routes was also required.
5. For the operation of the method, radar data and weather data are needed for bird observation
and to estimate the possibility of thermal formation and migration.
6. The level of risk depends on the number of birds estimated using the US BAM model or the
value of the reflectivity factor on a logarithmic scale.
7. The method does not assume the use of specific radar or a suitable mode of meteorological radar
operation.
8. The authors of the method point out that the developed risk area in the US BAM model may
become obsolete due to changes in the environment and recommend its update every few years
[15,16].
9. There is a lack of detailed information on the tests confirming the correctness of the above
method.
2.2. The method used in the FlySafe-BAM project.

Collisions with birds were also an important problem for the air forces of European countries, which
also conducted research on the possibility of using radar technologies for automatic detection of bird
migration. In order to combine the efforts of research groups from different countries, including the
Netherlands, Belgium, France, Germany and Switzerland, the FlySafe project was launched under the
4
IAP*** programme of the European Space Agency [17-19]. One of the effects of this project is the
FlySafe-BAM application††† used by the Dutch and Belgian air forces. The method used in the above
system allows to estimate the risk of bird strike in the next 72 hours in the vicinity of the weather radar.
It is composed of:
● vol2bird algorithm for detecting birds in radar images and estimating their density, average
speed and direction of migration.
● Migration intensity prediction model using Generalized Additive Models (GAMs).
In Europe, as in the United States, there is also a well developed network of weather radars. The
studies carried out in the years 2007 and 2008 in the Netherlands, Belgium and France confirmed the
possibility of automatic bird migration detection using weather radar [20]. The vol2bird algorithm,
which is the result of the above mentioned research, uses simple features that distinguish the radar image
created on the basis of meteorological objects from moving birds [21]:
● The image of radial velocity of moving birds has a characteristic granular form (figure 3b) in
contrast to the measurements of non-birds echoes (figure 3a). This is due to the high standard
deviation value of the radial speed differences between the gates in the scanned sweep.
● The scanned areas with moving birds do not exceed a predetermined mean reflectivity factor.
● Since the locale wind field in moderate weather is homogeneous at the height of interest, the
difference between the estimated radial wind velocity and the measurements of the radial
velocity of meteorological objects carried by the wind has a small standard deviation below
2 m/s. If birds disturb the measurements, the standard deviation is significantly higher
(figure 3c).
● For dual-polarisation radar, the scanned areas where the birds are located are characterised by
a correlation coefficient 𝜌𝐻𝑉 < 0.9.
a c
b d
Figure 3. Comparison of the radial velocity values Plan Position Indicators (PPI) of precipitation
(a) and birds (b) [20] and comparison of the measured radial velocity (points) when there are no birds
(c) and when there are birds (d) to the estimated radial velocity of linear wind model (continuous
line) [22].
***
Integrated Applications Promotion - a programme aimed at creating a service combining space technology
with ground systems. The program focused on creating an application that solves a specific problem.
†††
http://www.flysafe-birdtam.eu
5
The algorithm can be summarized in following steps:

1. For each radar sweep that contains data from interested area find those which could contains
birds echoes:
a. Detect contiguous areas with reflectivity factor higher than 0dB that could be returned by
precipitation.
b. For each bin i in sweep determine standard deviation of the radial velocity differences
between it and all adjacent as 𝜎𝑣𝑖 .
c. Exclude the areas with too small an area (<0.5 km2), which couldn’t contains precipitation.
d. Exclude the areas with characteristic granular form which shouldn’t contains precipitation.
They are excluded if mean 𝜎𝑣𝑖 is higher than 5 m/s and mean reflectivity factor is lower than
15 dBZ.
e. If the data comes from polarimetric radar extend the areas with bins that contains high
correlation coefﬁcient (above 0.95) and once more time remove those too small.
f. Extend the areas with additional fringe of 3 km.
g. Exclude bins which could be a clutter from further analysis i.e. they have to small radial
velocity (below 1 m/s) or to high reflectivity (above 20 dBZ).
2. Group bins by height layer.
3. For each height layer without gaps along the azimuth larger than 45°:
a. Correct values of aliased radial velocities using least-squares fitting to homogenous wind
field [23].
b. Fit homogenous wind field model using chi-square fitting [24].
c. If standard deviation of the fitted model is above 2 m/s there is high probability that this
height layer contains birds echoes. Determine once more time wind field model using chi-
square fitting excluding bins from contiguous areas containing precipitation.
The algorithm results in information on the number of migratory birds, as well as the direction and
velocity of migration, broken down by altitude layers, estimated from data from an area of around
a 25 km radius. The authors of the algorithm suggest to study the airspace up to the height of 4 km above
sea level, which should capture almost all occurring migrations in Europe [25].
The FlySafe-BAM system, similarly to the AHAS system, has been equipped with a model for bird
migration prediction. For this purpose a set of GAMs models was used [26]. The prediction model allows
to estimate the intensity of migration of birds for a specific moment in the radar area [27].
The density of birds, summed up by height, estimated using the vol2bird algorithm is the dependent
variable. The author assumed that it has a "quasi Poisson" distribution. The estimator of the above
variable is the weighted average of L (in practice about 50) responses from GAMs models. The predictor
variables used to build unique partial GAMs models take into account day of the year, either part of day
or night, bird migration intensity from previous hour and day, wind direction and speed, deviation from
normal of the average temperature, average atmospheric pressure, average relative humidity, 24-hour
change in temperature, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity, precipitation amount and duration,
and accumulation of individuals [27]. The weights are obtained on the basis of a cross-validation result
from 50 variants of a given model using mean absolute deviation (MAD). The estimation algorithm of
the GAMs models is based on penalized regression splines. Computation were done in R language using
mgcv package [28,29]. There were generated four models independently for diurnal and nocturnal
migration and each migration season.
The main properties of the method include:
1. The method estimates the risk of bird strike together with a height within a radius of 25
kilometers from the weather radar from which the data originate, with a delay of up to 15
minutes, as a result of the frequency of full scan by European weather radars.
2. The method allows prediction of the level of risk of bird strike within a radius of 25 kilometers
from the weather radar with a time horizon of 72 hours, due to the current effectiveness of
weather forecasting. The method does not provide information on the height level of predicted
risk.
6
3. In the migratory period, birds predominantly follow one known direction over the Netherlands
and Belgium. This was assumed by the vol2bird bird detection algorithm. A similar assumption
also exists in the prediction model.
4. Historical data on migration intensity (estimated using vol2bird algorithm) and historical data
with weather parameters are required to build the prediction model.
5. Raw weather radar data are required to monitor the level of risk. A weather parameter forecast
is required for prediction.
6. The level of risk depends on the number and weight of birds flying, which translates into the
radar reflectivity.
7. The method does not assume the use of specific radar or a suitable mode of meteorological radar
operation.
8. The method does not provide for the mapping over time of environmental changes that would
affect birds' passage.
9. For detection of birds with a density of more than 1 per km3, the probability of detection (POD)
is 97% and false alarm ratio (FAR) 42%. However, a large number of false positive detections
occur in a regime of very low bird reﬂectivity. For detection of bird density above 10 per km3
POD is 100%, FAR 97% [12]. The MAD was used to evaluate the prediction model. The MAD
was considered by migration period, time of day and location of measurement. At best, it was
0.2 and at worst 2.44. The model was undervalued when there was a large increase in migration
intensity in a short period of time [27].
2.3. The method used by BGIC.

The development of its own bird strike warning method and the possibility of risk prediction were also
initiated by the German armed forces (Bundeswehr) in the 1960s [30]. The reason for starting work on
its own method was the large number of single-engine fighter aircraft disasters caused by bird strikes.
The development of the method is the responsibility of the team of the BGIC biological department‡‡‡.
The method for assessing the current level of risk shall be based on data derived from the network
of air defense radars, military and civilian airport surveillance radars and the expertise of experts. In
addition to the above, current weather parameters are also used. Thanks to the appropriate dedicated
design of the aforementioned radars, bird data is automatically filtered and sent to the expert system
dedicated to BGIC staff. Available radar data, as well as data on weather conditions, shall be analysed
and interpreted by experts in order to estimate the level of risk of bird strike by 'squares' as defined by
GEOREF (World Geographic Reference System) with 1° side of longitude and latitude. Thanks to three-
dimensional detection capability of air defense radars, it is possible to determine the height to which the
threat exists. Thanks to the ability to visualize changes of radar images over time, it is possible to
determine the direction of migration using the expert method. The results of the algorithm are made
available on the Internet§§§.
The method of risk level prediction is based on the forecast of weather conditions, information on
the current intensity of bird migration, as well as expert knowledge of ornithology. It uses a decision
tree model to determine the level of risk of bird strike, which reflects the intensity of migration. The
model was developed on the basis of historical weather data, data from air defense radars and airport
surveillance radars [14,30-32]. After determining the value of the risk level, the necessary corrections
are made using the expert method and data on the current intensity of bird migration.
The result of the algorithm is then interpreted by experts to determine the final level of risk. The
algorithm allows you to predict the level of risk up to 24 hours ahead, divided into 4 times of the day.
‡‡‡
Bundeswehr GeoInformation Center (BGIC, org name ZGeoBw - Zentrum für Geoinformationswesen der
Bundeswehr) - a research institute of the German armed forces involved in the processing of geographic
information. More details can be found at: https://www.bundeswehr.de/de/organisation/cyber-und-
informationsraum/kommando-und-organisation-cir/zentrum-fuer-geoinformationswesen-der-bundeswehr.
§§§
https://www.notams.faa.gov/common/birdtam.html
7
Prediction is determined for 13 regions similar in terms of weather conditions. The algorithm's operating
diagram is shown in figure 4.
1. The method allows for the estimation of the current level of risk for the areas delimited by the
grid defined by GEOREF, as well as by height layers.
2. The method allows to predict the risk level for 13 regions with a time horizon of up to 24 hours.
Information on the height up to which the threat may occur is also available.
3. In the case of prediction, the German area was divided arbitrarily into 13 regions similar in
terms of climate conditions.
4. To develop a prediction model based on the decision tree, historical information on bird
migration intensity and historical weather data are required.
5. The method is based on data from a network of air defense radars and also military and civil
airport surveillance radars. In addition, information on weather conditions is needed.
6. The level of risk depends on the number and weight of birds flying, which translates into the
radar reflectivity factor.
7. The method involves the use of radars of appropriate design that are capable of automatically
filtering out information on radar echoes from birds.
8. The method does not provide for the mapping over time of environmental changes that would
affect birds' passage.
9. There is a lack of detailed information on the tests confirming the correctness of the above
method.
2.4. The method used by the Israeli Air Force.

Due to the current geopolitical situation, the State of Israel has a high density of aircraft in its airspace,
most of which are military aircraft. As there is a strong migration of birds over the territory of Israel
from Europe to Africa and Asia in the autumn and returning to Europe in the spring, it was quickly
recognised that the problem of bird collisions in military air traffic causes significant losses. During the
period of increased migration over Israel the density of birds reaches even 500 individuals within 1 km 2
[33]. High quality MRL-5 weather radar was used to monitor moving birds. The developed algorithm
allows for the detection of bird migration within a radius of up to 60 km from the radar regardless of
weather conditions and time of day [33,34]. The parameters of the radar used are further described in
the following article [35].
The algorithm requires a specific radar configuration. In order to amplify the reflected echo, the radar
sends n pulses (16 were selected in the tests) in one direction adding up the energy obtained. The next
requirement is to scan m times (the number of 8 times was selected on the basis of research) of a given
area at a constant elevation angle of the antenna, which should allow to analyse the movement of the
scanned objects. The authors of the algorithm use 10 cm radar waves.
The idea of the algorithm is based on the analysis of radar images using a camera, which
superimposes successive images on a single photo. Looking at the pictures created in this way you can
see that the flying birds form streaks. The appropriate analysis of the resulting streaks allows to identify
whether they are birds.
The most important steps of the algorithm are [33]:
1. Analysis of the returned signal power and rejection of measurements with too high a value that
is unlikely to be seen by flying birds.
2. Adding up the value of the returned power from the m scans received for a given elevation
angle.
8
Figure 4. Scheme for estimating the level of risk of bird strike for autumn and spring migration [30].
3. Filtering out echoes from birds based on echo position change and movement patterns of birds.
4. Estimation of velocity vectors for each echo group representing an individual or group of birds
using the method of linear regression of changes in position in the plane.
5. Rejection of velocity vectors that cannot come from birds based on a special method based on
additional properties (energy return, velocity and chaotic directions).
The results of the algorithm are classified echo samples returned to the radar in terms of their echo
affiliation to the echo of birds, as well as velocity vectors of echo groups. This allows us to determine
how many birds are currently migrating and what is the distribution of migration speed. The authors
indicate that the use of the above mentioned radar allows for the analysis of the current air situation with
a sampling time of 15 to 30 minutes.
1. The method allows filtering the radar echoes belonging to a single bird or a group of birds,
which allows obtaining information on the distribution of birds in the space around the radar
and the speed distribution of migrating birds. Due to time constraints and radar properties,
a maximum radius of 60 km is monitored. The analysis result is available at intervals of 15 to
30 minutes.
2. The method is not designed to predict the level of risk.
3. There is a lack of assumptions resulting from local conditions.
4. The method does not include models based on historical data.
5. The method is based on raw radar data.
6. The method does not specify how to estimate the level of risk.
7. The method assumes that the radar used has the appropriate operating parameters.
8. No assumptions regarding changes in migration routes over time as the method is only used to
monitor bird movements.
9. The tests carried out indicate that the probability of detecting birds decreases as the distance
from the radar increases. The probability decreases more quickly in case of night migration,
which is connected with the smaller size of birds flying at night. The developed method allows
the detection of more than 80% of birds within 5 km to 30 km from the radar. For distances up
to 60 km, a total of about 40% of the birds were detected during the night migration. In case of
daily migration, over 70% of birds were detected [35].
3. Analysis in terms of use taking into account Polish local conditions

In Poland in autumn and spring there is an intensive migration during which even 2 million birds may
move during the day [36,37]. The biggest difference in the course of migration on the territory of Poland
compared to other countries are complicated migration routes of birds [38]. This fact restricts the
possibility to use the methods that assume a single migration direction.
In the PAF there are appropriate structures to counteract the threats resulting from the negative
impact of the environment on safety, as exemplified by the Wildlife Hazard Management Program in
Polish Air Force. However, there is no dedicated expert group dealing exclusively with such threats. As
9
the example of other countries shows, a good solution is to use the existing radar infrastructure
(figure 5).
The following requirements, which take into account Polish conditions, should be taken into account
when considering the use of existing methods in building a solution supporting the management of the
risk of bird strike:
1. The ability to estimate, on the follow up base, the current level of risk of bird strike:
a. with a delay of up to several minutes;
Figure 5. Approximate locations of military (wheels) and civil (circles) weather radars that can be used
for the construction of a bird impact risk analysis system
b. with a delay of up to several minutes;

c. with the possibility to determine the height of the threat;
d. for any selected area.
2. Prediction of the risk level of bird strike:
a. in the 72 hour time horizon;
b. with the possibility to determine the height of the threat;
c. for any selected area.
3. The method should be based on available digital data such as radar, weather, GIS data on
topography, water bodies or land use.
4. Expertise should not be necessary to estimate the level of risk in the subsequent steps of the
method.
5. Local environmental conditions such as complex migration routes or species occurring should
not introduce additional limitations to the application of the method.
6. The method shall not involve modifications to the radar equipment or its parameters which may
interfere with the operation of the services using that radar infrastructure.
7. The method should take into account the parameters of the air operation in estimating the level
of risk.
Below is a summary showing the fulfilment of the above requirements by the individual methods
described above. Three symbols are used in Table 1:
● T - the requirement is met.
● O - certain elements of the requirement are met.
● N - the requirement is not met.
● x - not applicable.
The following abbreviations have been used to identify the individual methods:
● AHAS - the method used in AHAS system.
10
● FlySafe - the method used in the FlySafe-BAM system.

● BGIC - the method used in the expert system used by the team of the biological department of
the BGIC.
● IAF - a method of monitoring birds used, among others, by the Israeli Air Force.
Table 1. Implementation of requirements by individual methods.

Number of the requirement
Method
1a 1b 1c 2a 2b 2c 3 4 5 6 7
c f
AHAS T N T N O T O T Nh T Nl
FlySafe T T Na T N Nd T T Ni T Nl
b e g
BGIC T T N T T N O N Oj Nk Nl
IAF T T Na x x x T T T N Nl
a
The information about the current level of risk concerns only the area around the radar.
b
Information on the current level of risk is estimated for the areas defined by the grid of geographical
coordinates.
c
Only possible for certain bird species that are included in the soaring model
d
Predictive risk level for the area around the radar.
e
Prediction of the risk level for certain areas similar in terms of weather conditions.
f
The sources used to create the US BAM model have been collected over many years and with the help of
many government agencies, organizations and volunteers. The data collected had to be analysed by a team of
ornithological experts for further use.
g
Lack of properly filtered data from air defence radars and military and civil proximity control radars.
h
The method is based on the behaviours of bird species that occur in the United States.
i
The method assumes that birds move in one direction and that there is a preferred direction of bird migration.
j
The prediction model assumes that areas with similar weather conditions have a constant level of risk. It
should be checked whether a similar assumption is correct for the territory of Poland.
k
The algorithm is based on a specific method of meteorological radar operation. In the case of using Polish
weather radars, a change in operating parameters may negatively affect the implementation of the main task,
i.e. monitoring of weather conditions, which is an unacceptable situation.
l
The risk level is based solely on the density of the birds’ bodies. However, it is worth noting that the energy
of collision between the aircraft and the bird is proportional to its mass and to the square of its speed in
relation to the aircraft. Therefore, the collision effect may have different effects depending on the type of
aircraft and the characteristics of the flight operation.
4. Conclusion
The article highlights the problem of collision military aircrafts with birds. Next, the article presents the
most important methods used by the air forces of different countries to estimate the current level of risk
of bird strike and its prediction. The use of the above methods significantly reduced the costs of military
aircraft operation. The article presents a short description of each method, as well as the main features
allowing for comparison in terms of their capabilities, required data, local conditions and required
infrastructure. The description contains the author of the method and the main reasons why it was
developed. It is worth noting the variety of used models including neural networks, decision trees or
regression methods such as GAMs or chi-square fitting. Each of the methods was analyzed in terms of
the possibility of using it, taking into account Polish local conditions.
All of the above mentioned methods have certain properties which significantly hinder their
application. Among the most important are:
● the models used have been created taking into account the environmental conditions in the area;
● there are no adequate data sources from which some models have been created;
● some methods are based on dedicated radar infrastructure.
11
It is therefore necessary to develop a method of its own which meets the requirements set out in
chapter 3. The method developed will be able to support those responsible for air operations planning
in the PAF. The implementation of above method should reduce the costs of military aircraft operation.
Data on the migration of birds over the territory of Poland can also be used in cooperation with other
European countries to improve flight safety.
In addition, monitoring and prediction of bird flights can be used in the dynamically developing and
innovative field of science, which is aeroecology. Migration forecasts will further ecological research
while aiding monitoring and mortality mitigation efforts. Global health workers monitoring avian-borne
diseases can use migration forecasts to anticipate bird movements. Migration forecast systems have
great potential to aid environmental monitoring and conservation efforts.
The use of AI methods for the classification and regression problems turned out to be effective in the
monitoring and prediction of bird movement. However, further research is necessary in findings
methods for more accurate monitoring of the bird migrations with the use of incomplete and uncertain
data.
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This content was downloaded from IP address 196.4.80.2 on 31/08/2022 at 10:25

The review of methods for a real-time monitoring and

B Szafrański1, M Zieja2 and J Wójcik1*

Keywords. safety, aviation, risk, bird strike, radar

2.1. The method used in AHAS.

M EM EI EN ET OT TM Jet Helicopter Turboprop

2.2. The method used in the FlySafe-BAM project.

The algorithm can be summarized in following steps:

2.3. The method used by BGIC.

2.4. The method used by the Israeli Air Force.

3. Analysis in terms of use taking into account Polish local conditions

b. with a delay of up to several minutes;

● FlySafe - the method used in the FlySafe-BAM system.

Table 1. Implementation of requirements by individual methods.

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